Episodes
-
Tom Bodrovics, welcomes back Lobo Tiggre, author and publisher of TheIndependentSpeculator.com. They explore China's recent halt in gold buying by the People's Bank, which is deemed insignificant as ordinary Chinese people are increasingly seeking gold as a secure investment due to real estate crisis and the desire for alternative savings. The conversation revolves around potential economic indicators such as Jeff Gunlach's recession predictor and Rick Rule's perspective on an inevitable but not immediate recession. Lobo expresses worries about market fragility, investor panic, especially during elections, and possible implications of copper prices.
Despite considering copper an economic indicator with a trailing effect, Lobo remains bullish on it for the long term, though it might change his investment approach if there's a recession. Lobo observes that silver has behaved more like gold recently, prompting him to reconsider investment strategies and add silver back into consideration. Regarding Mexico, political instability and anti-mining sentiments are increasingly a concern, leading Lobo to reduce his Mexican stock exposure. The discussion also touches upon Argentina's President Milei, with potential risks of instability or violent events impacting investments, but optimism remains due to Milei's popularity and reform progress.
Lobo argues that political risk cannot be overlooked in Latin America and advocates for the potential profitability of gold stocks due to their ability to provide significant leverage to the underlying commodity. Additionally, he remains bullish on uranium as a potentially lucrative investment opportunity that has a long-term thesis.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - A New Gold Buyer?8:38 - Macro Forces & Timing11:16 - Recession & Unemployment19:24 - Stock Market Optimism21:00 - Economy & Dr. Copper26:50 - Silver Outlook30:16 - Mexico & Capital Concerns34:50 - Latin America Trends43:43 - Mining Stocks Broken?49:51 - Uranium & Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Chinese people seek gold as alternative savings amid real estate crisis, disregarding People's Bank pause in buying.
Lobo remains bullish on copper for the long term but may change approach if recession occurs. Silver behavior prompts strategy reconsideration.
Political instability in Mexico and Argentina raise concerns.
Gold stocks offer potential profit due to commodity leverage. He remains bullish on uranium long-term.
Guest Links:Website: https://independentspeculator.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/duediligenceguyFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/louis.james.965580/Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lobotiggre/
Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name "Louis James." While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey.
Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record.
A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator. Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has "skin in the game" with them. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Greg Weldon, the publisher of Global Macro Strategy Report and the Gold Guru, for a discussion on the US markets, with a focus on the economy and consumer spending. With over four decades of experience in financial markets and commodity trading, Greg expresses concerns about economic stress despite celebratory employment reports, citing labor market conditions worsening with rising unemployment, underemployment, and declining savings rates. Consumers are also facing increasing credit card and auto loan delinquencies while disposable income decreases and government handouts account for an expanding share.
Greg suggests the economy might already be rolling over, and the Fed would like to see asset prices decrease before declaring victory in inflation, despite the policy rate being higher than current inflation. Commercial real estate is another major concern, with the Fed seeming behind the curve.
Greg shares his perspective that the Fed might be showing a willingness to accept higher general rates of inflation to protect consumers and the economy despite risks of inducing a credit crunch. The discussion touches upon Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's challenges in maintaining an apolitical stance during the divisive US election year and potential social unrest leading to economic negatives. Greg also mentions commercial real estate debt due in the next 12 months, which could lead to bank failures for regional banks holding 80% of that debt.
Greg discusses the implications of a consumer wake-up call in the stock market or another Plaza Accord-like agreement among major global powers as potential catalysts for the U.S. dollar's next round of debasement. He also mentions natural events, climate change, and geopolitical conflicts that could impact currencies and commodities, particularly gold. Greg encourages being aggressive defensively by shorting the S&P 500 when the time comes and suggests optimism about future performance for platinum and certain mining shares. He believes mining as a whole will benefit from increased enthusiasm towards gold.
Lastly, Mr. Weldon emphasizes the importance of staying adaptive, not being bound by historical prices or market assumptions, researching a good Commodity Trading Advisor, importance of proper risk management, and understanding futures trading.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Heavy Policies & Elections4:50 - CPI Understated?6:29 - Consumer Credit Stress8:57 - Powell & Asset Prices10:08 - Fed Watching Gold?12:54 - Fed Inflation Targets15:20 - Inflation Metrics?19:26 - Powell & Elections21:38 - Bank Failure Risks25:47 - Dollar Risk & C.B Cuts32:13 - Defensive Plays34:15 - Dollar/Gold Correlation37:27 - Stock Markets & Currencies39:48 - Gold Market Considerations45:23 - Platinum Thoughts47:12 - Mining Sector Vs. Metals50:00 - Concluding Thoughts51:20 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Why the economy may already be rolling over, with rising unemployment, underemployment, and declining savings rates, despite positive employment reports.
The Fed might accept higher inflation to protect consumers and the economy, potentially causing a credit crunch.
Natural events, climate change, geopolitical conflicts, and consumer behavior could significantly impact currencies and commodities, particularly gold.
Guest Links:Website: http://www.weldononline.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/WeldonLIVEMoney Podcast: https://twitter.com/money_podcastYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonE-Mail: [email protected]
Greg Weldon is a veteran in the global financial markets industry with over 40 years of experience. He started his career as a floor trader on the COMEX and later worked as a broker for Lehman Brothers and Prudential Securities. He then became a proprietary money manager for hedge funds Moore Capital Management and Commodities Corporation. In 1998, he founded Weldon Financial and has been producing ... -
Missing episodes?
-
Tom Bodrovics welcomes Tony Anscombe, ESET Chief Security Evangelist, to discuss cybersecurity in the mining sector. With over three decades in IT and cybersecurity, Anscombe stresses that security fundamentals remain crucial despite technological advancements. He highlights vulnerabilities from remote locations, outdated technology, third parties, and activists/nation states. Mining companies face significant risks, including potential for fatalities and financial losses.
A comprehensive cybersecurity framework is necessary, along with advanced technologies like EDR systems. The financial cost of cyber attacks can reach $14 trillion by 2027, affecting industries, including mining. Companies must prioritize cybersecurity and involve third parties to adhere to security policies. Anscombe also touches on the ethical implications and potential international collaboration in AI development.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:30 - Tony's Background2:03 - Industrial Security6:47 - Potential Risks10:37 - Attack Vectors12:32 - 3rd Party Liability14:30 - AI & Cyber Security17:30 - Practical Solutions19:50 - Capable People20:58 - Global Impacts & Costs24:16 - Reporting & Regulations27:02 - Technical Glitches?30:04 - AI Risks & Benefits33:57 - Restricting AI?36:19 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Mining companies face significant cybersecurity risks due to remote locations, outdated technology, third parties, and activists/nation states.
A comprehensive cybersecurity framework and advanced technologies like EDR systems are necessary to mitigate mining sector risks.
The financial cost of cyber attacks can exceed $14 trillion by 2027, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing cybersecurity for all industries.
Guest Linkshttps://www.welivesecurity.com/en/https://twitter.com/TonyAtESET
Tony Anscombe is Chief Security Evangelist for ESET. With over 20 years of security industry experience, Anscombe is an established author, blogger and speaker on the current threat landscape, security technologies and products, data protection, privacy and trust, and Internet safety. His speaking portfolio includes industry conferences RSA, Black Hat, VB, CTIA, MEF, Gartner Risk and Security Summit and the Child Internet Safety Summit (CIS). He is regularly quoted in cybersecurity, technology and business media, including BBC, Dark Reading, the Guardian, the New York Times and USA Today, with broadcast appearances on Bloomberg, BBC, CTV, KRON and CBS. Anscombe is a current board member of the NCSA and FOSI. Tony is based in the USA and represents ESET globally. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back mining executive and metals analyst David Jensen. Together they revisit concerns around the London gold market's dominance, estimated to account for 91-92% of the global gold trade. This is thanks to the Bank of England's 'regulatory oversight' since 1986, permitting unallocated gold contracts instead of physical bars. The market trades $500 billion of gold daily and and 2.9 billion ounces of silver. However, only around 3.5% of London's vaulted gold is actual physical. They contrast the LBMA with the Shanghai gold market and point out the key differences.
David argues that the London market functions as a price-setting mechanism rather than one of price discovery. They discuss Gibson's paradox, where interest rates follow price levels rather than inflation rate. Central banks benefit from this control scheme due to their control over monetary policy and debt levels using gold and silver as loose policy indicators.
David delves deeper into the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), which regulates through a voluntary code of conduct called NIPPS which is under Bank of England oversight. The metals market are dominated in London, with around 90% global cash trading occurring there.
David raises concerns over the transparency and authenticity of silver holdings in Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), questioning claims against metal, sub-custodians, potential rehypothecation or selling. The actual amount of silver held and its implications for interest rates and the economy if pricing proves fictitious are discussed.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:12 - Size of London Market7:07 - Paper Claims on Metals8:45 - Silver a Virtual Asset?9:50 - Opaque Market & Claims14:44 - Fractional Reserve Metals?15:57 - LBMA 'Code of Conduct'20:54 - Who Watches the Watchers22:09 - Settlement Definition24:29 - London Vs. New York25:35 - Futures & Cash Markets30:20 - ETFs & Bullion Banks33:08 - Honesty & Transparency?38:13 - Criticality Theory41:10 - Scales & Incentives42:18 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
London gold market dominates, allowing unallocated contracts. Central banks benefit from opacity, influencing monetary policy.
Questions about physical holdings vs. claims in London's vaults impacting interest rates and the economy.
Transparency concerns regarding ETF silver holdings, potential rehypothecation or selling of metal claims.
Guest Links:Substack: https://JensenDavid.substack.com/Gab: https://gab.com/DavidJensenReddit: https://www.reddit.com/user/j_stars/Jeff Currie Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESxpDsUmQRE
David Jensen, P.Eng., LL.B., MBA, is a Professional Engineer with a degree in Engineering from the University of Waterloo in Canada. He worked through 1993 on the F-5 Fighter Overhaul program and the Bombardier Regional Jet programs. Mr. Jensen then graduated with an LL.B. degree in corporate and commercial law from the University of Calgary and an MBA from Univ. of B.C., majoring in Logistics and Supply Chain Management.
Returning first to aviation, then, after reading Austrian School Economics, Mr. Jensen transitioned to the mining industry in 2004. First through his mining industry consultancy, then as Vice President of Corporate Development for Western Copper Corp., and most recently as President and COO of Skyline Gold.
Mr. Jensen currently serves as President and COO of a private mining company and provides strategic, operational, risk assessment, and precious metals consulting services through his consultancy, Jensen Strategic. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back John Lee, a seasoned CFA with two decades in the mining industry, to discuss economic trends and his predictions since their last conversation in September 2022. Reflecting on past discussions, they touch upon various topics including the irrationality of silver markets, U.S. dollar's rise, and the surprising impact of geopolitics on commodities like oil.
John shares his perspective on current economic issues such as persistent inflation, rising interest rates, and an inverted yield curve. He admits some errors in earlier predictions but maintains a thoughtful analysis of macroeconomic trends. John believes that large financial institutions and tech companies have significant influence on markets and are not swayed by interest rate hikes in the same way as ordinary investors.
John discusses the role of the Federal Reserve and the potential motivations behind its actions, questioning whether its primary goal is to control inflation or facilitate asset accumulation for the powerful elite. He also delves into the impact of demographics on commodities and the economy. Despite less consumer demand due to underreported population numbers in some countries like China, John remains bullish on investment demand for metals like gold.
John shares his concerns about the upcoming election and its potential market impact, believing that central banks and cartels have more control over market movements than politicians. He also advises preparing for an exit strategy with diversified assets in various currencies, metals, and geographic regions. John encourages listeners to explore his work on Twitter under the username 'John Lee Silver Elephant' for insights on gold, silver, and interest rates. Currently, he recommends waiting for further dollar weakness before making significant purchases of these metals.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introductions0:40 - Changes & Surprises6:02 - Rate Hikes & No Crash?12:12 - Thoughts on the Fed15:53 - Yield Curve Inversion20:52 - The Dollar & Cent. Banks23:45 - Demographics & Commodities29:16 - China & Economic Reporting33:26 - Silver/Gold Ratio & Uses38:10 - Golds Role & Public47:27 - Election Uncertainties50:42 - Conflict Risks & Fragility58:46 - Diversification & Plan B1:05:38 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Central banks and large entities manipulate markets, minimizing impact of interest rate hikes on ordinary investors.
How demographics and geopolitical factors can influence commodity demand and prices.
Why gold remains a valuable long-term investment due to increasing central bank concerns and potential digital currency adoption.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/johnlee25893955Website: https://www.silverelef.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-lee-baa93422/
John Lee, CFA, is CEO and President of Silver Elephant Mining. Mr. Lee specializes in mining M&A and has raised over $150 million through the TSX and TSX Venture Exchange for junior companies since 2009. Lee identified, negotiated and financed Lynn Lake nickel acquisition in 2009, Ulaan Ovoo coal in 2010, Wellgreen nickel-pgm in 2011, Shakespeare nickel-pgm in 2012, Pulacayo silver in 2015, Gibellini vanadium in 2017, Bisoni vanadium in 2020, and Minago nickel-pgm in 2021. Mr. Lee is a CFA charterholder and graduated from Rice University with bachelor’s degrees in Economics and in Engineering (honor). -
In this engaging interview, Tom Bodrovics once again engages in a thoughtful conversation with the legendary Rick Rule. Throughout their discussion, Rick underscores the significance of patience, persistence, and the power of people when it comes to thriving in equities. He also champions Warren Buffett's concept of compounding as a vital principle for long-term prosperity.
Rick shares his belief that individuals should prioritize self-reliance over reliance on the political system. He cautions against jumping to hasty conclusions based on market narratives. In terms of economic forecasts, Rick expresses concerns about imminent recessions in both the US and globally, advocating that individuals maintain liquidity and top-tier portfolios to navigate market dips.
Rick further discusses Warren Buffett's investment philosophies, emphasizing the importance of concentrating on industries in which one is knowledgeable.
Rick believes that gold could outperform various other asset classes due to its present insignificant market presence, coupled with Europe potentially distancing itself from the US. He posits that while the US dollar will continue as a reserve currency, it may face challenges from the developing multi-polar world.
Rick believes government will generally choose various covert methods of confiscating wealth from the population instead of direct overt action. Methods like inflating the money supply and taxation are far more likely than direct metals confiscation.
Rick also voices concerns regarding the banking system's stability given unrealized losses totaling $517 billion and looming debt maturities. He raises issues of insolvency for lenders due to a disparity between long-term assets and overnight liabilities, as well as commercial real estate portfolios. Rick encourages having some bullion as non-correlated cash offering options during tumultuous markets.
Lastly, Rick shares his insights on the Canadian and US banking systems, appreciating Canada's banks for higher profitability for shareholders but less favorable conditions for borrowers due to minimal competition. The US market, however, offers a broader selection of financial institutions catering to various clientele as both lenders and borrowers. Rick also highlights his efforts in establishing Battle Bank and the necessity of earning interest on savings.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:37 - Lessons Learned7:54 - Elections & Investors10:18 - Education & Blaming Society12:24 - Recession Probabilities15:23 - New Paradigms & Understanding22:16 - The World & Gold23:50 - Multi-Polar Outlook26:36 - Covert or Overt Confiscation29:14 - State of the Uranium Cycle32:45 - FDIC & Lender Insolvency35:25 - Commercial Real Estate37:49 - What You Want in a Bank?39:25 - Savings, CPI, & Hedonics41:46 - U.S. Vs. Canadian Banks44:00 - Return Free Risk47:24 - Living Standards & Needs50:34 - Developed Demographics52:26 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Rick Rule emphasizes patience, persistence, self-reliance, and knowledge for success in equities, with a focus on Warren Buffett's compounding principle for long-term prosperity. He also expresses concerns about imminent recessions and advocates maintaining liquidity and top-tier portfolios.
Rule believes in the potential of gold as an asset class due to its insignificant market presence and Europe distancing from the US, while warning about government covert methods of wealth confiscation and instability in the banking system. He encourages having some bullion during market dips.
Rick values Canada's banks for higher profitability but less favorable conditions for borrowers due to minimal competition. In contrast, he highlights the US market's broader selection of financial institutions catering to various clientele as both lenders and borrowers. He also discusses his efforts in establishing Battle Bank.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter. -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Bob Elliott, Co-Founder, CEO, and CIO of Unlimited Funds, who shares his insights on how to evaluate skills from luck in investment outcomes. The discussion also touched upon the current state of inflation in developed countries like Europe, the UK, and the US. Despite recent supply shocks causing higher price growth, wages have matched or surpassed it, resulting in elevated rates exceeding central bank targets.
Elliott also addressed the concerns of central bankers regarding debt and income dynamics, mentioning the risks of negative reinforcing cycles and comparing credit-driven economic expansions to sustainable income-driven ones. The speakers discussed the relationship between government deficits and economic growth, debating whether high levels lead to significant stimulus or a large debt burden.
Regarding labor markets, Bob addressed the rising costs of inflation and the impact on reshoring production in the US. The speakers touched upon de-globalization, parallel supply chains, and shipping costs as causes for price increases and disruptions. The Fed's current monetary policy stance was discussed, with potential future actions debated due to low unemployment and while inflation is still above target.
Bob questioned the significance of specific labor market numbers and he also touched upon why the US economy avoided a recession despite predictions. In this income-driven environment, Bob discussed the shift from growth to value stocks and the impact on investable assets in sectors with earnings and market consolidation. The supercycle in resource markets was also discussed highlighting investment lags behind demand and potential higher commodity prices contributing to inflation.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:47 - Investing Luck Vs. Skill4:18 - Understanding Biases6:54 - Evaluating Advisors10:05 - High Inflation & Rate Cuts13:06 - Why a 2% CPI Target16:56 - Time Preference & Demand20:12 - Types of Economic Expansion27:39 - Deficits & Growth30:32 - Inflation Forces33:52 - Goods Deflation & Supply37:30 - Reshoring & Labor Costs40:16 - Shipping & Disruptions43:24 - Container Ship Costs45:35 - Fed & Rate Cutting?48:02 - Labor Data & Noise50:05 - Global Bond Markets53:23 - U.S. Resilience?55:40 - Value Vs. Growth59:00 - Sectors & Resource Cycles1:03:52 - Wrap Up
Talking Points from This Episode
Bob Elliott emphasizes the role of both skills and luck in investment outcomes, suggesting investors focus on evaluating individuals' ability to make informed decisions rather than solely relying on past successes.
Central banks are grappling with rising inflation rates exceeding targets due to wage growth matching or surpassing price increases in developed countries like Europe, the UK, and the US.
Elliott discusses the shift from growth to value stocks amid an income-driven economic environment, highlighting the importance of investing in sectors with earnings and market consolidation.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.unlimitedfunds.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited
Bob Elliott is the Co-Founder, CEO, and CIO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital and private equity.
Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and created investment strategies across equities, fixed income, credit, exchange rates, and commodities, including many used in the flagship Pure Alpha fund. He also built and led Ray Dalio's personal investment research team for nearly a decade. He's the author of hundreds of Bridgewater's widely read Daily Observations and directly counseled some of the world's foremost policymakers and institutional investors on economic and investing issues.
Bob has also served as an advisor and executive at several startups including CircleUp, -
In Part Two with Michael Oliver and Vince Lanci we discuss the growing political and economic uncertainties revolving around the upcoming 2024 election.
Michael highlights the potential chaos and unrest during the election. He suggests that if the stock market broke before the election, the Democratic Party might consider replacing Biden due to their emphasis on market performance. Tom mentions a poll indicating deep-rooted political divisions, with each party believing a win by the opposite would cause lasting harm to the country. This instability, Michael believes, is not being factored into markets and could lead to major shifts for global investors.
The duo expressed concerns about the upcoming election's impact on markets and society, emphasizing that elections usually bring uncertainty but, due to deep-rooted political divisions in the US, there is a higher risk of prolonged uncertainty. This could result in increased stock market volatility and even a contested election outcome. They mentioned historical examples like the 2008 election, secession attempts, and the role of gold during such times.
They also touch upon potential implications for gold markets if the U.S. election was contested. They emphasize buying dips instead of selling rallies for gold and silver as alternatives to a volatile stock market. They see gold as a competitive alternative when the stock market experiences volatility.
Furthermore, the conversation explored potential crises or geopolitical events that could lead to the suspension of the upcoming election, including manufactured ones. The speakers also touched upon the role of gold as a metric of economic stability and its potential impact on the election. Additionally, they reflected on the changing political landscape, the influence of various parties and foreign conflicts on the election outcome, and the potential consequences for free speech, civil unrest, inflation, monetary policy, and individual freedoms.
Time Stamp References:00:00 - Introduction00:51 - Fed & Panic Mode08:40 - 2024 Election Chaos?13:26 - Argentina & Milei19:33 - Seceding Successfully?24:41 - Fed Going Away?26:04 - Censorship & Free Speech29:10 - Suspension of Elections?31:18 - Geopolitical Black Swans37:03 - The Uni-Party & RFK39:56 - Metals & Signposts40:33 - Volatility & Buy The Dips42:17 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The upcoming 2024 U.S. election is causing significant political and economic uncertainty which the markets have not priced in.
Deep-rooted political divisions indicate a higher risk of prolonged uncertainty, increasing stock market volatility and potential for a market correction
Gold could serve as an alternative investment during such volatile stock markets and potential black swan like events.
Vince Lanci - Guest LinksSpecial Discount: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/TomPalisadesWebsite: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SorenthekZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfcLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/Boobs & Bullion: https://twitter.com/boobsbullion
Vincent Lanci is the Owner and Founder of Echobay Partners LLC. and is a regular contributor on ZeroHedge.
In 2018 Vince was honored to be a part of Market Wizard Larry Benedict's Opportunistic Trader project as precious metals and Option expert. In addition, in 2017, Mr. Lanci and Professor Robert Biolsi co-authored Forecasting Oil and Natural Gas Volatility for UCONN.
From 2004-2008, Mr. Lanci was Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC, Echobay's predecessor, where he ran the long-short and vol-arb portfolios for CiS's parent fund and generated $103MM during that time.
From 1993-2003, Vince owned and operated Berard Capital LLC option market makers. In 2000, he co-founded Whentech with David Wender, where he was the chief architect of the "Pit-Trader" user interface. Between 1987-1993 he gained experience at Lehman Bros and Cooper Neff.... -
In this Palisades podcast episode, Tom welcomes back Michael Oliver from Momentum Structural Analysis and Vince Lanci, publisher of the Goldfix Substack. The discussion covers various markets - metals, equity indexes, commodities - and in part two, the upcoming election.
Michael Oliver initiates the conversation by analyzing the NASDAQ's remarkable growth since the 2009 Bear Low and its significance as a leading index due to its substantial percentage gain. He attributes this influx of funds to the M2 chart or Fed funds rate chart, directing investment into the stock market at that time. Michael then pivots towards the current market situation, sharing his view on momentum analysis and the election's potential impact, emphasizing the importance of examining trends beyond just price. He points to a major sell signal in January 2022, causing a steep decline followed by recovery.
Vince Lanci contributes by addressing the narrowing breadth in the stock market. He stresses that leadership changes are vital for overall market health and believes there's currently no breadth, limiting options if AI leadership falters. Vince explains how the stock indexes have shrunk from a broader group to key players.
The discussion also touches on copper and natural gas commodities before focusing on precious metals. Michael highlights the deceptive nature of the acceleration phase in a bull market and the significance of understanding trends and structures rather than relying solely on popular indicators like RSI or MACD.
They further delve into investment strategies based on silver market analysis and historical trends, sharing personal experiences and anticipating precious metals market movements due to geopolitical tensions and central banks' actions. Vince also brings a geopolitical perspective, focusing on central banks and sovereign wealth funds buying silver as an international trade collateral store of value.
They explore the potential for a new Bretton Woods and gold's ability to anticipate economic trends. Vince expects significant precious metals market movements due to the anticipated end of fiat currency and gold's role in predicting economic shifts, with concern about commercial real estate and stock markets potentially being affected by central banks' involvement.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:02 - Nasdaq & Momentum4:58 - Nvidia & Stock Markets?10:38 - Copper Importance12:53 - Natural Gas Chart18:44 - Past Silver Bull Mkts.24:30 - Momentum & Timeframes26:38 - Maintaining Perspective34:09 - Silver Spread Vs. Gold37:40 - C.B. Gold Buying & BRICS43:43 - Gold & The End of Fiat
Talking Points From This Episode
Michael Oliver discusses the NASDAQ's growth, attributing it to funds shift post-financial crisis, emphasizing importance of understanding market trends beyond just price.
Vince Lanci highlights narrowing stock market breadth and stresses leadership changes are crucial for overall health and potential risks if it falters.
They explore investment strategies in precious metals, discussing historical trends, geopolitical tensions, and central banks' role.
Vince Lanci - Guest LinksSpecial Discount: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/TomPalisadesWebsite: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SorenthekZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfcLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/Boobs & Bullion: https://twitter.com/boobsbullion
Vincent Lanci is the Owner and Founder of Echobay Partners LLC. and is a regular contributor on ZeroHedge.
In 2018 Vince was honored to be a part of Market Wizard Larry Benedict's Opportunistic Trader project as precious metals and Option expert. In addition, in 2017, Mr. Lanci and Professor Robert Biolsi co-authored Forecasting Oil and Natural Gas Volatility for UCONN.
From 2004-2008, Mr. Lanci was Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC, Echobay's predecessor, where he ran the long-short and vol-arb portfoli... -
In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Francis Hunt, also known as the Market Sniper, for a discussion on the importance of shared experiences, living deliberately beyond the financial world, and the upcoming gold and silver discussion focusing on preserving assets during monetary transition. They emphasize the significance of understanding reality, accepting limitations, and building bonds for amplified experiences. Francis discusses the current economic situation involving debt contraction and the seesaw analogy representing nation states' debt levels and currencies. Japan's excessive debt is predicted to cause a currency collapse, leading to significant losses for various assets, including the 30-year treasury.
Francis discusses the reasons for owning physical gold, silver, and land as means to escape both systems and maintain control over possessions. He also discuss the importance of investing in industrial metals like copper as part of an inflation hedge during currency devaluation and suggest investing in commodities while shorting debt and fiat currencies. Francis predicts that gold will reach 2897, and silver may surpass it, in a parabolic phase of financial instability. They also analyze the performance of precious metals like Platinum, which has underperformed since 2009 but could experience overperformance based on historical trends and cross-valuation.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction9:55 - Analyze & Take Action13:32 - Resiliance & Emotions17:07 - Debt/Fiat Contraction19:56 - US 30Y Treasury Chart25:25 - Own Nothing and Be?29:23 - System Breaking & Gold32:30 - Fed & Who Prices Debt34:00 - Bond Rates & Control36:05 - Gold/Dollar Chart43:44 - 30Y Debt Reversion46:37 - Shrinking Dollar Value48:00 - Silver Levels & Support53:30 - Gold/Silver Ratio59:20 - Copper Chart1:01:42 - Coffee Chart1:03:48 - Gaps Down in Bull Runs1:06:39 - UPS Parcel Chart1:09:48 - Case For Platinum1:19:22 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Amidst economic instability, owning physical gold, silver, and land provides control over possessions and escapes debt-based systems.
Platinum has underperformed since 2009 but could experience overperformance due to historical trends and cross-valuation.
Invest in commodities like gold, silver, and platinum while shorting debt and fiat currencies during stagflation.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/themarketsniperTwitter: https://twitter.com/thecryptosniperWebsite: https://themarketsniper.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper
Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade?
He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis.
Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals. -
In this episode of Palisades, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back metals analyst David Jensen to discuss the volatile gold and silver markets, with a focus on the London market's reliance on promissory notes for trading and its potential physical supply issues leading to risks of default. They also touch upon the large trading volumes in London, deficits in the silver market, increasing demand from China, and concerns over retail investors influencing silver prices due to ETF manipulation and rehypothecation.
David shares his perspective on factors affecting the silver market during the 2020-2021 silver squeeze, including inventory disappearance in China, Shanghai exchange's influence, potential catalysts like central banks buying gold or conflicts, and the City of London's involvement in a longstanding global gold and silver fraud.
The conversation further explores the impact of various factors on gold and silver markets, including concerns about transparency regarding lease rates, central bank sourcing of metal, and potential consequences for major banks if they cannot cover contract losses. Overall, Jensen emphasizes the importance of understanding the significance of physical supply issues in the metals market and staying informed to avoid ignoring important matters.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:37 - Re-hypothecation & London7:17 - Bullion Banks & Physical13:20 - Paper Ponzi?15:08 - ETF Drawdowns & Supply17:23 - Jeff Currie Comments19:00 - Bullion & China Influence23:17 - News Driven Catalysts26:30 - Money Supply & Bank Buying29:15 - Demand Picture & Drawdowns30:35 - C.B. Metal Sourcing?32:22 - Debt & The Silver Lynchpin39:12 - Media & Reaching People41:08 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
David discusses volatile gold and silver prices due to physical supply issues in the London market.
Jensen warns of potential risk of default from reliance on promissory notes in London gold and silver trading.
He highlights significant deficits and dwindling inventories in the silver market, which will eventually cause a crisis.
Guest Links:Substack: https://JensenDavid.substack.com/Gab: https://gab.com/DavidJensenReddit: https://www.reddit.com/user/j_stars/Jeff Currie Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESxpDsUmQRE
David Jensen, P.Eng., LL.B., MBA, is a Professional Engineer with a degree in Engineering from the University of Waterloo in Canada. He worked through 1993 on the F-5 Fighter Overhaul program and the Bombardier Regional Jet programs. Mr. Jensen then graduated with an LL.B. degree in corporate and commercial law from the University of Calgary and an MBA from Univ. of B.C., majoring in Logistics and Supply Chain Management.
Returning first to aviation, then, after reading Austrian School Economics, Mr. Jensen transitioned to the mining industry in 2004. First through his mining industry consultancy, then as Vice President of Corporate Development for Western Copper Corp., and most recently as President and COO of Skyline Gold.
Mr. Jensen currently serves as President and COO of a private mining company and provides strategic, operational, risk assessment, and precious metals consulting services through his consultancy, Jensen Strategic. -
In this Palisades interview, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back hosts global forecaster David Murin to delve into the differences between lateral and linear thinking in the context of current world conflicts. Murin posits that empires cycle through phases of thinking, with laterals leading initially and linears taking control as empires mature. He attributes the current global climate to an unprecedented level of linear thinking due to sophisticated money printing over the past two decades, which has left societies inflexible to dynamic threats.
Murin further discusses geopolitical implications, particularly regarding the Houthis' actions in the Red Sea and its significance for American maritime hegemony. He raises concerns about China's involvement and advanced military capabilities, emphasizing the importance of maintaining control over critical sea lanes for wealth and resource extraction.
Murin believes historical cycles of war could have been avoided with greater awareness and full-spectrum deterrence, aligning with the 112-year contractive cycle that has led to hegemonic conflicts throughout history.
David also shares his views on China's strategic intentions and resource acquisitions, arguing that China is not primarily concerned with wartime resource gathering but rather denying resources to the West. He points to Argentina as an example where Chinese interests were rejected, giving the West a foothold in the region. Murin suggests Western engagement and political activism are necessary for regime change in countries with autocratic regimes.
He uses numerous price-based systems to understand various markets and sectors, predicting a decline in bond prices and increased inflation for commodities due to excess demand from fiat money. David sees the current situation as a commodity supercycle that affects the entire commodities complex and causes inflation for all physical resources. War contributes to inflation during these cycles. Murin warns of impending wars, emphasizing the importance of adapting and strong leadership in response to threats.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:02 - Types of Thinking6:20 - Shipping & Shrinking Empire12:40 - Inevitable Conflict?16:07 - China Growth & Cycles20:37 - The Art of War24:12 - BRICS & China26:33 - Fentanyl Problem28:10 - Results of Energy Tariffs31:33 - Inflation & Central Banks36:48 - Models & Mkt. Behavior38:32 - Bond Markets & Gold42:40 - War & Inflation43:53 - Important Developments46:00 - War is Upon Us49:01 - U.S. Navy & Defense52:30 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Empires cycle through lateral and linear thinking phases, with current global climate characterized by unprecedented linear thinking due to sophisticated money printing.
Geopolitical implications include challenges to American maritime hegemony in the Red Sea and China's potential denial of resources to the West.
Historical cycles indicate ongoing hegemonic conflicts and the importance of full-spectrum deterrence, with impending wars requiring quick adaptation and strong leadership.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalForecastrWebsite: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/Lateral Vs Linear Thought: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_v5720RPmw&t=636s
David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. David's work with the PNG tribespeople catalyzed his theories on collective human behavior.
In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. Watching his colleges on the trading floors, he quickly identified modern society also behaved collectively. -
Tom welcomes back Mike Singleton, Senior Analyst and Founder at Invictus Research to the show. Mike explains his views on the business cycle, current economic trends, and their impact on asset classes like stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies. Mike explains that Invictus defines the business cycle as having three sub-cycles: real growth, inflation, and monetary policy. They believe these cycles drive price action across various assets. The US economy is currently reflating, indicating faster real growth and inflation. Despite inflationary pressures, federal deficits are expected to fuel manufacturing growth due to initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act.Mike argues that investors can benefit from an inflationary cycle as it leads to potential growth in earnings. However, consumers may face challenges with rising prices, affecting their quality of life and ability to deploy capital into markets. Mike believes that for a clearer understanding of inflation, one should look at commodity prices rather than Consumer Price Index (CPI).Mike also discusses the significance of copper miners' performance as an indicator of real economic acceleration. He suggests considering ownership of productive assets and taking on more cyclical risk when copper miners outperform copper. Oil, as an energy input, follows this trend, with demand increasing during economic expansion. Despite a recent downturn, it is viewed as a buying opportunity.The US dollar's relationship with economic data, interest rates, and the Fed is also discussed. While the U.S. economy is outperforming other developed markets, the dollar could strengthen based on interest rate parity. However, its weakening against emerging market currencies due to their improved economic conditions is generally bullish for reflationary assets like commodities and risky investments. Invictus has launched a new mobile app with an AI-enabled chatbot providing retail investors with access to research analysis.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Three Economic Cycles4:43 - Housing Sector Health7:08 - Consumer Spending & Deficits16:33 - CPI Metrics & Adjustments18:02 - Income, Wages, & Demand20:14 - Fed, CPI, Yields, Cuts26:05 - Commodity Demand30:46 - Metal Prices Vs. Miners32:10 - Oil Market Outlook35:23 - Strategies with Miners38:36 - Positioning & Cash40:10 - Investors Vs. Consumers41:25 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeHow the business cycle's sub-cycles (real growth, inflation, monetary policy) influence asset price action.Copper miners' outperformance signals real economic acceleration; consider productive assets and cyclical risk.A stronger US dollar based on interest rate parity could benefit reflationary assets like commodities.Guest Links:Website: https://invictus-research.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/InvictusMacroMichael Singleton is Senior Analyst at Invictus. He studied finance and theology at the University of Notre Dame, where he graduated summa cum laude. After graduating, he worked for several years with Broad Run Investment Management. There he spent most of my time conducting deep, fundamental diligence on the highest quality companies. That grounding gained him a thorough, bottom-up approach to research and has proven invaluable.Since then, his focus has been spent studying the economy at-large and its relationship with liquid asset markets. There is a massive hole in the anlysis market for timely, thoughtful, and accessible macroeconomic research. That's why he became involved at Invictus.
-
Tom welcomes economist John Williams, the founder of Shadow Government Statistics to the show. Williams shares his background in economics and economic modeling, which led him to scrutinize government statistics due to their potential inaccuracies. He became particularly concerned with employment data revisions and manipulation. Despite improvements, he remains skeptical about inconsistencies' impact on forecasting accuracy.
Williams discusses the misrepresentation of inflation through changes in reporting methodologies, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This underreporting of inflation affects cost-of-living adjustments and pension payouts, leaving retirees facing significant financial challenges. The pandemic exacerbated these issues with distorted CPI reporting.
He also criticizes the current economic situation's representation through GDP growth rates, which may not accurately represent underlying economic conditions. Inflation can lead to an increase in reported real GDP without actual sales growth. The excessive money supply injected into the economy during the pandemic is another major contributor to inflation.
Despite attempts to control inflation through interest rate hikes, the economy has suffered negative growth in critical sectors like retail sales, industrial production, housing, and employment. The Federal Reserve prioritizes the banking system over the economy, making high interest rates more beneficial for banks than for consumers. The historically large disparity between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI) further highlights a weak economy.
John predicts that despite rising GDP, there is a potential worsening in the next six months with underlying economic downturn and potential high or even hyperinflation. He advises holding precious metals like physical gold and silver as a hedge against inflation and preserving purchasing power during these uncertain times. Gold has been an effective hedge against inflation over the last 40 years, although it can also be manipulated.
Williams believes that the Federal Reserve will continue to intervene with monetary policies despite their inflationary effects. He encourages listeners to visit shadowgovernmentstats.com for more information and to contact him directly at [email protected]. His website was recently taken down, but the old site remains accessible for background information.
Talking Points From This Episode
Government statistics, particularly inflation data, can be manipulated and underreported, leading to inaccurate economic representations.
The Federal Reserve's priority is keeping the banking system afloat rather than addressing underlying economic issues, causing negative consequences for consumers.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may not accurately represent economic conditions as it can be artificially boosted by inflation and government interventions.
Precious metals like gold serve as a hedge against inflation and help preserve purchasing power during uncertain economic times.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Background in Business4:15 - Models Being Redefined12:08 - Inflation Reporting17:26 - Releases & Revisions25:25 - Redefining Everything33:12 - Inflation Vs. GDP35:37 - Inflation Causations37:36 - Money Supply Measures46:56 - Real Economic Outlook50:39 - Gold - Inflation Hedge52:35 - Fed & The Next Crisis54:53 - Debt to GDP & Rates59:15 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://shadowstats.comE-Mail: [email protected]
Walter J. "John" Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies. -
Tom welcomes back Steve St. Angelo of the SRSrocco Report for a discussion on the economics of Bitcoin mining, focusing on the lifespan and economic viability of Bitcoin mining hardware. According to St. Angelo, major US Bitcoin miners Marathon and Riot account for significant portions of global hash rate production, with Bitcoin mining consuming approximately 1-2% of US electricity. However, Bitcoin miners' hardware depreciates rapidly; while they last five years, they become almost obsolete in two years, producing only around 90% of their total Bitcoin output by that time.St. Angelo discusses the implications of this rapid depreciation on sustainability and profitability, raising concerns about underreported depreciation costs, which can mislead investors. To fund the capital expenditure required to replace these miners, companies issue large amounts of shares, leading to significant dilution for existing shareholders.The conversation also touches on the potential use of stranded energy for Bitcoin mining but expresses concerns about its scarcity as energy demand grows. St. Angelo compares this to the gold mining industry, where inflation caused by government actions impacts production costs. He argues that the high depreciation rate and underreporting of these costs in the Bitcoin mining industry could lead to significant financial challenges.Marathon and Riot's claims about not needing to issue further shares for growth remain uncertain. Steve expresses concerns regarding Bitcoin's energy consumption compared to gold mining and its unsustainability due to the need for continuous miner replacement. Despite his criticism of Bitcoin, he acknowledges that some investors are avid supporters. He emphasizes physical metals like gold as a higher quality collateral due to their durability and lack of ongoing energy consumption.Additionally, Steve discusses trends in Gold Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) inflows and outflows between Western countries and Asia, particularly China. While there have been significant net outflows from Western Gold ETFs for several years, Eastern countries like China have experienced substantial increases in their Gold ETFs due to central banks' large-scale gold purchases. The West's potential shift towards real assets like gold is suggested, given the risks associated with US Treasuries and money market accounts. However, acquiring gold with potentially devalued dollars presents a challenge for Western investors.Talking Points From This EpisodeSteve discusses Bitcoin mining's rapid hardware depreciation, its impact on profitability, and sustainability concerns.Marathon and Riot's Bitcoin mining operations face significant underreported depreciation costs.Gold ETF trends: Eastern countries' surge in gold purchases versus Western net outflows.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - Economics of BTC Mining?4:10 - Mining Economics & Charts13:30 - Hash Rates & New Hardware17:07 - Share Dilution Solutions19:34 - Underperformance & CAP-Ex25:30 - All-In Costs & Mining27:56 - Electricity Consumption30:40 - End to End Depreciation37:17 - Bitcoin Value & Time38:35 - Comparing Mining Industries41:37 - Gold Mining Total Costs44:08 - Bitcoin Vs. Gold48:30 - Chinese Gold ETF Flows53:10 - Wrap UpGuest Links:Website: https://srsroccoreport.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_gIndependent researcher Steve St. Angelo (SRSrocco) started to invest in precious metals in 2002. Later on, in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, curiously, most of the precious metal analyst community have left unexplored. These areas include how energy and the falling EROI "Energy Returned On Invested" stand to impact the mining industry, precious metals, paper assets, and the overall economy.Steve considers studying the impacts of EROI one of the most important aspects of his energy ...
-
In this engaging episode of Palisades Gold Radio, your host Tom Bodrovics welcomes Dave Bradley, a pioneering figure in the Bitcoin world. Known as Canada's strongest and best-looking Bitcoin entrepreneur, Dave is the founder of the first Bitcoin store, co-founder of Bull Bitcoin, and a board member of Bitcoin Well.They explore the intersection of gold and Bitcoin against the backdrop of growing awareness regarding monetary debasement and the rise of freedom movement communities.Dave emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between money and investments, considering gold as a store of value rather than money. Many investments have taken on characteristics of money due to debasement and muddling risk-adjusted returns. He shares concerns over increased risk tolerance among individuals due to rampant central bank money printing.The conversation delves into the emergence of alternative cryptocurrencies, which Dave views as companies competing with a protocol rather than contenders to Bitcoin's decentralized form of money. Despite over 10,000 altcoins, most have failed to capture significant value or market cap. Dave shares his personal journey of discovering Bitcoin in 2010 and the missed opportunities that came with it, including regretful sales in the early days.The discussion covers Bitcoin's potential as a form of money, surpassing gold in terms of divisibility, ease of verification, and digital nature that makes it more practical for transactions. Dave notes that Bitcoin has a role to play during times of censorship. In the future role Bitcoins role will likely to continue to strengthen as traditional monetary policies falter. Dave concludes by inviting listeners to attend the Bitcoin Rodeo conference for valuable insights on real-world applications of Bitcoin.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introductions0:40 - Freedom Groups & Sound Money3:34 - Money Vs. Investments5:30 - Exchange Risks & Fraud10:47 - Alt Coins & DeFi12:14 - His Bitcoin Background16:17 - Lessons Learned18:40 - The Unbalanced Portfolio21:28 - Property Rights Erosion22:42 - Bitcoin Vs. Gold29:00 - Store of Value Vs Use31:18 - A Permissionless System32:45 - Grassroots Markets34:45 - Trucker Protest & Gov't37:05 - Counterparty Risk39:58 - Excess Energy & Solutions44:19 - Bitcoin Mining Business46:30 - The Future of Bitcoin?51:25 - ETFS & Paper Promises?55:05 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeDave views gold as a store of value and Bitcoin more as decentralized money, surpassing gold's divisibility, ease, and digital nature for transactions.Bitcoin serves as backup currency during traditional monetary policy falters; government has limited control over Bitcoin wallets during events like protests.Guest links:Bitcoin Conference: https://BitcoinRodeo.comPromo: $71 Off Tickets to the Bitcoin Rodeo. Use Code: "Gold"Website: https://BitcoinBrains.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/BitcoinBrainsDave Bradley is widely known as the Strongest and Best Looking Bitcoin Entrepreneur in Canada. After getting into bitcoin in 2010, Dave founded the world's first physical bitcoin store in 2013. Dave later went on to co-found the iconic bitcoin company, Bull Bitco
-
!function(r,u,m,b,l,e){r._Rumble=b,r[b]||(r[b]=function(){(r[b]._=r[b]._||[]).push(arguments);if(r[b]._.length==1){l=u.createElement(m),e=u.getElementsByTagName(m)[0],l.async=1,l.src="https://rumble.com/embedJS/u13ry0f"+(arguments[1].video?'.'+arguments[1].video:'')+"/?url="+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+"&args="+encodeURIComponent(JSON.stringify([].slice.apply(arguments))),e.parentNode.insertBefore(l,e)}})}(window, document, "script", "Rumble");Rumble("play", {"video":"v4rqitf","div":"rumble_v4rqitf"});In a not-to-be-missed episode, Tom Bodrovics welcomes a new guest, Robert Bryce. Robert is an author, journalist, film producer, and public speaker.Together, they delve into energy issues as Bryce voices his concerns over the fragility of the electric grid and the potential consequences of underestimating the value of a reliable energy supply. He recounts personal experiences with power disruptions and highlights significant contrasts between developed countries' energy abundance and challenges faced in places like South Africa and Beirut. The discussion centers on the 2021 Texas blackout, which shed light on renewable energy's role during the crisis and its limitations when needed most. Bryce underscores the danger of making the electric grid overly reliant on non-base load power. He advocates for recognizing natural gas's crucial role in securing energy stability during inclement weather. He also criticizes initiatives like Michael Bloomberg's Beyond Carbon Campaign, as they could potentially worsen the grid's vulnerability and threaten national energy security.Robert raises concerns about inaccurate information and analysis regarding the energy landscape, specifically concerning hydrogen being misrepresented as a renewable resource by certain media outlets. He laments the negative impact of these misleading narratives on public understanding and decision-making processes. They also discuss challenges of the hydrogen fuel cycle and why it's more of a transportation carrier system than an energy source.Robert discusses how modern energy policy is regressive in nature and its outsized impact on poverty and the wealth gap. He argues that these policies, including those related to climate change and electric vehicles, increase electricity costs disproportionately for low-income and middle-class households despite Democrats' advocacy for the public's welfare. Robert believes that energy affordability should be a bipartisan concern due to its critical role in the overall economy. He also criticizes the media's portrayal of the global energy transition, pointing out that developing countries like China and India are not adhering to the same goals as the West, focusing instead on building coal power plants to meet their immediate energy needs.Robert advocates for pragmatism and a clear-eyed approach to energy production and consumption. He shares his skepticism towards renewable energy's low power density sources, such as wind and solar, and champions high power density sources like natural gas and nuclear. Robert also criticizes the corporatism surrounding renewable energy development and emphasizes the importance of understanding the realities of energy needs in light of increasing demand from developing countries.Lastly, they explore the challenges of rapidly transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs) from a fossil fuel-based system. Despite promises, EVs are not yet capable of replacing oil as a critical commodity for commerce due to the enormous energy consumption in the U.S. transportation sector. The limitations and challenges of batteries, including their energy density, material intensity, and dependence on Chinese supply chains, are discussed. The Biden administration's energy policies are criticized for making the auto sector dependent on components from overseas while stifling the development of oil and coal-based power sources. Financial losses incurred by EV manufacturers like Ford and R...
-
Tom welcomes back Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management to discuss the business aspects of the mining industry.
Adrian stresses the importance of understanding a company's financial situation beyond initial disappointments, using Barrick Gold as an example of a company with a history of optimistic production estimates leading to missed targets but effectively managing these issues. He emphasizes the significance of cost metrics like per ounce operating costs and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) for evaluating mining companies' profitability and efficiency.
The conversation touches upon the challenges faced by mining operations, such as equipment failure, geopolitical risks, maturing mines, and hurdles common to every operation. Fortuna is used as an example of a company whose significant zinc production should be considered in evaluating its revenue distribution among different metals.
Adrian discusses the disconnect between gold prices and mining stocks, attributing it to gold's strong performance amidst central banks and Chinese investors seeking safe havens and the broad stock market's strength. Despite potential risks, such as a pause or reduction in buying by central banks and a negative macroeconomic environment, Adrian highlights the opportunity presented by undervalued gold stocks.
The speaker also touches upon exploration expenditures and their importance in discovering new deposits despite the increasing difficulty of finding them. In his investment strategy, Adrian emphasizes investing in senior miners and major royalty companies during the current market cycle due to their undervalued status and likelihood to move first when the gold sector takes off.
The conversation concludes with a discussion on economic stress in financial systems caused by excessive debt accumulated during periods of ultra-low interest rates, with maturing low-interest loans causing strain for households and corporations between 2024 and 2026. Adrian emphasizes the undervaluation of gold mining companies considering gold prices and their margins.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:16 - Miners & Missed Targets6:43 - All-In-Costs Metrics9:47 - Production Misses14:39 - Risks & Juridiction18:50 - Valuing Poly Deposits20:55 - Gold Price & Miners26:17 - Closing The Gap?30:19 - Mergers & Timing Cycles33:16 - Companies & Exploration36:12 - Portfolio Strategies39:37 - Royalty & Streaming42:16 - Low Premiums on Metals46:20 - Silver & Sentiment47:47 - OTC Purchases & Reports50:28 - Consumers & Metrics53:00 - Biggest Stress Points57:30 - Long-Err-Term Bonds?1:02:48 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The financial situation of mining companies, even those with initial disappointments, should be thoroughly understood for long-term investment opportunities.
Barrick Gold serves as an example of managing production misses effectively.
Cost metrics like per ounce operating costs and all-in sustaining costs are crucial for evaluating mining companies' profitability and efficiency.
Various factors that have led to a disconnect between gold prices and mining stocks, presenting opportunity for undervalued gold stocks.
Guest Links:Website: https://adrianday.com/
Adrian Day is considered a pioneer in promoting the benefits of global investing in the United Kingdom. A native of London, after graduating with honors from the London School of Economics, Mr. Day spent many years as a financial investment writer, where he gained a large following for his expertise in searching out unusual investment opportunities around the world. He has also authored two books on the subject of global investing: International Investment Opportunities: How and Where to Invest Overseas Successfully and Investing Without Borders. His latest book, widely praised by readers, is Investing in Resources: How to Profit from the Outsized Potential and Avoid the Risks (Wiley, 2010). Mr. Day is a recognized authority in both global an... -
Tom welcomes a new guest to the show, Robert Sinn to share his background in precious metals, junior mining, and biotech investing. Robert discusses his introduction to gold during the 1990s debt crisis through his father's experiences at coin shows and investments. The conversation later focuses on the Federal Reserve's recent announcement of tapering quantitative tightening and its potential impact on market positioning, emphasizing fiscal dominance and potential softer data suggesting a possible negative non-farm payroll print.
Sinn further explores the Fed's shift in inflation targeting, proposing that it might adopt a new, unannounced inflation target above 2%, around 3%. He explains that markets have accepted the Fed's decision not to cut rates as frequently as anticipated, but anticipate at least one more rate cut this year. Parallels are drawn between the late 1970s and the current situation regarding government spending policies and inflation trends.
The discussion then shifts towards energy investments, with Sinn emphasizing uranium and natural gas as crucial areas due to their baseload power generation capabilities and affordability. He acknowledges the transition towards cleaner energy but argues that it will take considerable time for this shift to fully materialize. Sinn holds stocks in both oil companies and renewable energy sectors, adopting a long-term perspective.
Theys explore differences in debt structures between China and the U.S., their implications on markets, and strategies for investing in gold. The conversation shifts to Japan's debt ownership versus the world owning U.S. debt. This leads to a discussion about China's debt structure, which sees the government act as the backstop for all debt within their economy.
Robert then delves into the Fed's influence on markets and its ability to impact financial conditions without changing interest rates. This interview concludes with an emphasis on gold investing, stressing the significance of global data, especially from China, when analyzing gold market trends. Various strategies are suggested for investors looking to stay in the gold market during volatile periods. Robert discusses the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective and focusing on the structural bull market trends.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:53 - Background & Metals3:25 - Juniors & Biotech5:29 - Fed Reactions10:02 - Fed Inflation Targets11:36 - Market Reactions13:25 - 1970s Parallels16:55 - Energy Investments20:00 - Seasonality in Biotech21:22 - War Headlines & Gold23:12 - Gold A New Era?26:49 - A Tectonic Shift28:34 - China Vs. U.S. Debt30:43 - Fed Rate Clown Show34:18 - Trader Positioning37:39 - Bull & Staying Invested40:43 - Portfolio Structuring46:00 - Rules For Juniors49:50 - New Discoveries53:30 - Lessons & Danger Signs59:40 - Go Long Yoga Pants1:00:41 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Roberts background in precious metals and his introduction to gold during the 1990s debt crisis.
The Fed's potential shift in inflation targeting: new unannounced target above 2%, around 3%.
Energy investments: uranium, natural gas, baseload power, affordability, and long-term perspective.
Strategies for holding on during volatile bull markets.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/CEOTechnicianSubstack: https://robertsinn.substack.comCEO.CA: https://ceo.ca/@goldfingerYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV_3gUkg2hbl-Fni4XxNb_Q
Robert Sinn is a 20+ year market veteran whose research and insights are followed by hedge fund managers, investment professionals and thousands of readers/viewers across the globe. His introduction to the stock market came in 2003 when his Father shared a research note on a company called Northern Dynasty Minerals (NDM). Shares proceeded to rise more than 1000% over the next nine months. Robert was hooked, and the Junior mining sector became an obsession. -
Tom Bodrovics, welcomes back Don Durrett, an experienced author, investor, and founder of Goldstockdata.com, to discuss gold prices and the economic implications. Durrett believes an imminent hard economic landing will boost his bullish stance on gold. In March 2023, gold reached new highs above $2050, while silver showed significant gains. However, miners have not followed suit.Durrett considers the present economic climate different from previous periods due to the Federal Reserve's reduced ability to revive the economy. He highlights that while the US economy grew and used debt in the 1990s, it eventually balanced its budget. However, since then, the US economy has reportedly been declining for approximately 25 years, leading to significant global shifts like countries abandoning US bonds and equities and increasing interest in gold as a reserve currency.Japan's bond and currency struggles could potentially trigger a crisis due to their substantial US treasury holdings. Durrett discusses the potential impact of Asian countries purchasing gold and the importance of oil purchases in gold-importing countries like Japan and China.Don expresses bearish views on the stock market and bullish predictions for silver prices due to inventory shortages, increasing demand, and potential manipulation attempts like those seen with the Hunt Brothers in the past.Don shares his perspective on gold miners using the HUI index to identify buying and selling opportunities. He considers anything below $250 on the HUI cheap, with levels between $200 and $225 being the buy zone. Opportunities for cheaper stocks extend from $225 to $250. However, as the HUI approaches $300, fewer cheap stocks become available. He anticipates the gold miners' bull market hasn't started yet but expects it to resume in the next couple of months and predicts a potential dip in gold and silver prices before the significant uptrend begins. The summer may not be as uneventful this year due to potential rapid market movements once risk-on sentiment shifts to risk-off.Don has been successful with mid-tier producers some of which have seen substantial growth through acquisitions. He also discusses his investment strategy, holding stocks amidst potential economic downturns, diversification through various investments such as silver, crypto, and physical preparation by selling to the top. He also mentions the unsustainability of constant wars due to increasing budget deficits, implying that peace may prevail as America retreats from its aggressive role on the global stage.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Article & Gold ATH4:25 - Rates, Risks & Spending18:37 - Japanese Bond Markets23:40 - C.B. Gold Buying27:27 - Gold Price Predictions31:34 - Silver Expectations37:50 - Hunt Brothers 2.0?43:23 - ETF Metal Flows48:07 - Miners Bull Market?51:22 - Summer Doldrums?54:30 - Wall Street Interest?1:01:22 - Miners Risk Vs. Return1:10:00 - Stocks & Great Taking?1:15:10 - Rapid Changes Coming1:21:22 - Optimism & Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeDon Durrett believes an economic downturn will boost gold prices; gold & silver reached new highs in March 2023, but miners lagged behind.Bearish on stocks, bullish on silver due to inventory shortages, increasing demand, and potential manipulation attempts.America's aggressive role on the global stage unsustainable due to budget deficits, peace may prevail.Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DonDurrettWebsite: https://www.goldstockdata.com/Free Trial: https://www.goldstockdata.com/freetrialSubstack: https://dondurrett.substack.com/Amazon: https://www.amazon.com.mx/How-Invest-Gold-Silver-Complete/dp/1427650241Blog Posts: https://seekingalpha.com/author/don-durrett#regular_articlesYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/Newager23Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years.
- Show more
