Episodes
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Lynette Zang, financial analyst and economist, explains why the US dollar is at the end of its life cycle, with only 3 cents of purchasing power remaining from the original dollar. She details how currency collapses follow predictable patterns, with the current system having effectively died in 2008. Zang calculates gold's fundamental value at over $40,000 per ounce based on global debt divided by available gold, and predicts a hyperinflationary depression as the transition mechanism to a new monetary system. She outlines her eight-part preparation strategy focusing on food, water, energy, security, barterability, wealth preservation, community, and shelter, while advocating for sound money with convertible gold backing to force fiscal responsibility.
Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
https://www.youtube.com/@TheLynetteZang
https://x.com/TheLynetteZang
0:00 Introduction of Lynette Zang
1:22 Big picture view on currency life cycles
3:44 Analysis of pattern recognition in markets
5:55 Discussion of dollar's end game scenario
8:43 Four key functions of money and fiat failures
10:02 Explanation of negative interest rates
11:32 Inflation impact and purchasing power decline
13:56 Gold vs dollar performance since 1913
15:10 Economic outlook and debt sustainability
17:24 Compounding interest and credit exhaustion
20:09 Gold-backed currency and fiscal responsibility
21:25 Gold price behavior and performance analysis
23:51 Gold valuation methodology
26:34 Gold revaluation and confidence loss
28:29 Personal asset allocation strategy
30:32 CBDCs and currency transition tactics
34:13 Monetary reset discussion
37:04 Hyperinflationary depression outlook
40:19 Preparedness strategies and food security
43:49 Detailed home preparedness approach
48:46 Economic outlook beyond recession
51:06 Eight critical preparation categories
52:57 Central bank gold buying motivations
54:42 Gold standard and sound money advocacy
57:39 Perception management and paradigm shifts
1:01:12 Closing thoughts and contact information
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Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 240 to discuss markets and the state of the economy.
Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Whalen explains why market euphoria has faded under Trump's "shock and awe" strategy. Banks face a $3 trillion mortgage securities problem yielding under 3% against 3% funding costs. He notes the FDIC has stopped reporting troubled bank asset totals after 35 years, suggesting numerous insolvent institutions need resolution. Despite these issues, Whalen doesn't forecast a recession, seeing continued growth with isolated credit problems. In commercial real estate, he describes a "silent recession" where banks avoid taking properties, while for residential real estate he predicts price softening, then a rate-cut mini-boom before a major 2028 correction. Whalen also calls Fannie & Freddie stocks a "pump and dump" trade, states gold is "the only form of money that's not debt," and dismisses crypto as "nothing."
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X
Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/
0:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen
1:06 Big picture market overview and Trump policy impact
2:49 Stock market as political proxy and market conditions
4:46 Fed policy outlook and potential rate cuts
6:09 Banking sector challenges and mark-to-market issues
8:07 Silicon Valley Bank anniversary and bank issues
11:10 Economic assessment and credit conditions
13:52 Commercial real estate challenges
16:11 Discussion of tariffs and Trump's structural changes
20:13 Debt, government spending, and economic growth
22:18 Investment approach and AI skepticism
24:36 Gold vs cryptocurrency perspective
25:58 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
27:29 Housing market conditions and affordability
29:50 Closing thoughts and where to find his work
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Missing episodes?
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Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, “Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity,” returns to The Julia La Roche Show where he analyzes global liquidity trends and warns of market risks ahead.
Howell explains we're entering an "air pocket" in global liquidity despite the overall upward trend that began in October 2022. He examines the "hidden stimulus" from Yellen and Powell that's now fading, details why the US Treasury's bill-heavy financing strategy exposes government funding to interest rate risk, and discusses a theory about Trump potentially revaluing US gold reserves to generate a $1.25 trillion windfall. For investors facing 2025's "much more uncertain year," Howell advises caution and suggests that real assets—particularly gold—may outperfor
Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/
Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercap
Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902
00:00 Intro and welcome Michael Howell
01:25 - Current state of the global liquidity cycle and the emerging "air pocket"
03:50 - The hidden stimulus from Fed and Treasury that's now fading
06:16 - How bill-focused Treasury financing is effectively "monetizing the deficit"
11:04 - China's central bank actions and their global economic impact
15:54 - Signs of a potential Chinese policy shift toward economic growth
18:35 - Parallels between Trump and Nixon's economic approaches
21:37 - Asset allocation recommendations based on market regimes
26:58 - Analysis of where we are in the liquidity cycle and future projections
31:49 - Why China needs to devalue against gold and implications for US policy
37:49 - The growing global debt burden and limited options for resolution
43:43 - Why the Fed must expand its balance sheet by mid-2025
48:48 - Tariffs as a negotiating tool rather than an end goal
50:39 - Final advice: investors should consider adding resources/gold to portfolios as protection during uncertain times
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Jeff Snider, host of the Eurodollar University podcast, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the current macroeconomic picture.
Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
In this episode, Snider explains why we never actually left the 2020 recession - the apparent recovery was an illusion created by Fed rate cuts, election optimism, and front-loaded economic activity. The U.S. economy remains 5 million jobs short of a real recovery, with consumers feeling left behind as their purchasing power eroded. Snider warns of growing risks in China's banking system and argues that continued government intervention is making economic problems worse. He breaks down why the bond market has been signaling weakness since 2022 while stocks remain detached from fundamentals, and explains how the Eurodollar system connects global markets in ways most analysts miss.
Jeff Snider is an expert on the global monetary system, specifically the Eurodollar money system, and all aspects of its misunderstood inner workings and how they impact global markets, commerce, and the economy. His podcast Eurodollar University (https://www.eurodollar.university/) aims to educate the public on the evolution, nature, and nuances of the Eurodollar system and true monetary principles.
Links:
X https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU
YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@eurodollaruniversity
0:00 Introduction of Jeff Snider
0:54 Big picture macro view and recent market shift
2:14 Analysis of "artificial" economic factors
4:37 Consumer sentiment declining and job market concerns
5:40 Disconnect between economic data and real conditions
7:52 Missing context in economic recovery data
9:30 Housing market distortions and government intervention
11:52 Long-term consequences of pandemic policy
13:13 Discussion of growth scare vs. true recession
15:48 Market behaviors and bond market signals
19:18 Fed policy outlook and rate direction
22:30 Potential economic scenarios ahead
25:33 Challenges for investors in current environment
28:25 Base case economic outlook
31:14 Biggest risk and potential for financial shocks
34:48 Global interconnectedness and reserve currency effects
37:22 Path to positive outcome and economic reset
42:30 Problems with government intervention
45:08 Information about Eurodollar University
47:29 Closing thoughts on economic reality
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New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 238 to discuss the markets and the economy. New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 238 to discuss the markets and the economy. McDonald explains why we're facing an engineered economic slowdown as the new administration tackles persistent inflation and massive debt issues. McDonald reveals how the top 10% now drives 60% of consumption, why hard assets like copper will outperform technology in our new stagflationary environment, and how "financial repression" may be the only viable strategy to manage our $37 trillion debt burden.
Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond
Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/
0:00 Introduction and welcome
1:25 Overview of fiscal stimulus and inflationary forces
3:50 Top 10% of consumers responsible for 60% of consumption
7:16 Treasury debt strategy and need to get rates down
9:16 Discussion of engineering recession to kill inflation
13:39 Market signals pointing to recession risk
15:42 Copper as a contrarian investment opportunity
19:50 Effects of job reshoring and war rebuilds on inflation
22:15 Hard assets outperforming in stagflationary environment
25:05 Issues with rapidly cutting government spending
26:38 New portfolio construction for inflationary regime
29:08 Bear Traps Report approach and financial repression strategy
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Dr. Judy Shelton, senior fellow at the Independent Institute and author of "Good as Gold: How To Unleash The Power of Sound Money," explains why the U.S. stands at a monetary crossroads requiring fundamental reform. She critiques the Federal Reserve's practice of paying banks billions not to lend, the distortionary effects of currency manipulation in international trade, and the moral implications of a 2% inflation target that systematically erodes savings. Shelton argues for auditing the Fed, restoring accountability, and considering gold-linked bonds as a path toward sound money, which she describes as a foundational element of economic liberty consistent with America's founding principles.
Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
Book: https://www.independent.org/store/book.asp?id=143
X: https://x.com/judyshel
0:00 Introduction of Dr. Judy Shelton1:01 Overview of monetary crossroads and need for reform4:23 Discussion of needed monetary reforms and Fed critique6:36 Analysis of Fed's interest rate mechanism8:58 Explanation of Fed payments to financial institutions11:25 International monetary impacts and currency distortions13:34 Sound money as moral contract and possibility16:31 Historical support for gold standard from past presidents19:56 Critique of Fed's 2% inflation target22:09 Question about Fed serving public interest25:03 Central bank accountability issues27:51 Gold-linked bonds proposal30:22 Closing remarks and where to find her work
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Bob Elliott, cofounder and CEO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital, and private equity, joins Julia La Roche on episode 236.
Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
In this episode, Elliott shares why the economy faces a likely growth disappointment in 2025. He explains how both Fed policy and the new administration's focus on restricting immigration, cutting deficits, and increasing tariffs look less positive than expected. Elliott points to extremely high growth expectations priced into both stocks and bonds, while noting professional investors are showing the lowest conviction levels in nearly a decade amid policy uncertainty.
Links:
X: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@BobEUnlimited
Website: https://www.unlimitedfunds.com/
0:00 Introduction and welcome back
1:02 "Curb Your Enthusiasm" market outlook
2:50 Analysis of Fed policy and fiscal expectations
4:39 Discussion of inflation and tariff impacts
6:19 Growth expectations vs reality
7:36 Key risks for 2025
9:27 Bond yields and stock market valuations
14:12 Consumer sentiment and partisan impacts
16:38 Tech bubble comparisons and market setup
17:19 MAG-7 vs broader market earnings expectations
19:39 Fund manager positioning and low conviction levels
23:09 Retail vs professional investor positioning
25:52 Concerns about market timing and catalysts
28:37 Gold analysis and Eastern demand
31:46 Closing remarks and contact information
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Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 235 to discuss mounting signs of disinflation and labor market stress in early 2025. She points to falling rents, rising vacancy rates, and a wave of both private and public sector job cuts that could force more Fed rate cuts than markets expect. DiMartino Booth warns about the confluence of student loan delinquencies, credit stress, and potential disruption to passive investment flows as demographic shifts and job losses impact 401(k) contributions.
Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.
DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.
Links:
QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth
Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome and introduction
1:10 Analysis of Fed minutes and debt ceiling impact
2:04 Discussion of Treasury general account and liquidity
3:50 MBS rolloff implications
5:18 Private sector layoffs and bankruptcies
8:20 Labor market conditions and Uber driver earnings
9:31 Initial jobless claims analysis and Fed outlook
11:23 Rent and housing market dynamics
13:36 Disinflationary trends and shelter costs
15:54 Student loan impact on credit scores
16:54 Housing market inventory and spring selling season
19:49 Senior housing opportunities
20:50 White collar recession analysis
23:50 Discussion of Doge savings and flat tax proposal
26:18 Potential stimulus impact on inflation
27:58 Passive investing risks and TSP analysis
32:01 Closing remarks
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Bill Fleckenstein, founder and president of Fleckenstein Capital, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 234 to discuss markets in 2025. He explains why he's waiting to see how new government initiatives play out before taking strong market positions, while maintaining significant precious metals exposure. Fleckenstein emphasizes that the passive bid remains "the elephant in the room" in markets, warns about government waste revelations, and explains why gold continues to show unexpected strength.
Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap
Website: https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/
0:00 Introduction and welcome
0:47 Big picture macro view and bond market analysis
7:17 Discussion of Social Security numbers and potential fraud
8:10 Market assessment and passive investing dynamics
9:40 Gold market analysis and central bank buying
15:01 Analysis of gold revaluation proposals
16:40 Debt discussion and DOGE initiatives
21:44 Bond market dynamics and 30-40 year cycles
24:16 Fed policy outlook and potential rate cuts
26:07 Economic impact of government workforce changes
28:26 Silver market outlook
31:00 Passive bid impact on markets
34:03 Dollar outlook and Japanese yen analysis
36:02 Concerns about government agency revelations
39:05 Warning to younger investors about passive investing
41:00 Discussion of market structure vs traditional bubbles
44:42 Closing remarks and contact information
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Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), joins Julia La Roche on episode 233 where he delivers a stark warning about the state of financial markets. Pento challenges Fed Chair Powell's recent victory lap on inflation, pointing out that prices have remained above the Fed's 2% target for nearly four years. He outlines his thesis for what he calls a "triumvirate of bubbles" in equities, real estate, and credit markets, explaining why these interconnected asset bubbles could lead to a market correction of at least 50%. Drawing on his 34 years of experience and proprietary 20-point liquidity model, Pento provides detailed evidence for his concerns while sharing insights on portfolio positioning, the impact of Trump 2.0, and potential solutions to America's mounting debt crisis.
Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
https://pentoport.com/
https://twitter.com/michaelpento
0:00 Intro and welcome Michael
0:43 Powell's congressional testimony & inflation criticism
3:02 Fed's $5T post-COVID liquidity & reverse repo facility
6:43 Warning of market bubbles
7:28 Evidence of equity bubble (Market cap to GDP, price to sales)
10:27 Credit bubble & private credit markets
11:24 Liquidity draining from system
13:08 Trump 2.0 impact on markets
14:37 Analyzing market liquidity (20-point model)
18:21 Future recession & $6T deficit concerns
19:41 Potential silver lining: Market reset
21:10 Fed's rate cut dilemma
23:10 Treasury gold revaluation discussion
25:56 Solutions to US debt crisis
28:44 Current portfolio strategy
31:51 Critique of passive investment industry
35:00 Closing thoughts & contact information
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Edward Dowd, Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, a global macro alternative investment firm, and author of "Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 232 to his macro thesis for 2025 and beyond. Dowd explains why he believes the US economy was propped up by unsustainable factors under the Biden administration, and how a recession under Trump would actually be proof of a necessary economic restructuring in favor of the middle class.
This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
PhinanceTechnologies: https://phinancetechnologies.com/
US Economy Outlook 2025:
https://phinancetechnologies.com/Product_USEconomyOutlook2025.htmTwitter/X: https://x.com/DowdEdward
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:34 Analyzing the unprecedented factors propping up the economy under Biden
03:14 Framing a recession as proof Trump is restructuring the economy for the middle class
05:03 How illegal immigration juiced the economy and will now reverse
07:28 Potential clash of fiscal priorities in Trump administration
09:03 Housing market correction expected as Fed-induced liquidity unwinds
11:18 Investors have the inflation story wrong, bond yields headed lower
13:12 Passive investing dominance a risk as markets turn
15:08 Recessions create generational opportunities for wealth transfer
16:11 AI bubble looks like dot-com infrastructure build-out before revenues
18:21 DeepSeek upending AI cost model, long-term bullish but near-term volatility
20:33 Gold's historical relationship with Fed rate cuts and dollar
23:24 Immigration's role in boosting money velocity and skewing economic data
26:55 Getting out of fiscal dominance to boost private investment
29:54 Using dry powder and dollar cost averaging in market downturns
32:40 Why a bond market dislocation would be fast but not necessarily a crash
35:47 Dollar strength not at risk, Treasury demand in recession
38:43 Expecting Fed cuts at or before March meeting, following T-bill market
41:24 Banks' unrealized losses shifting from duration to credit risk, CRE troubles
43:50 Doge's promising early progress on spending cuts, debt reduction
45:31 Housing transaction volumes slumping, a leading indicator
46:04 BoJ's Hobson's choice a key risk to watch, potential currency crisis
49:05 Strong dollar a sign of global dollar liquidity issues
51:23 Optimistic on government spending revelations and a potential "golden age"
53:24 Key takeaways - don't fear recession, creates opportunities, report details
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Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins Julia La Roche for episode 231 where he shares his perspective on the economic and market implications of President Trump's pivot back to 19th century-style tariffs. Whalen argues that while tariffs are unlikely to significantly slow the US economy, the Fed is "playing chicken" with liquidity levels as it unwinds its balance sheet amid soaring deficits. He warns of structural issues in the mortgage market stemming from pandemic-era policies, and expects a major housing reset in 2027-28. Whalen also discusses the Treasury's funding challenges, the Trump administration's likely tax policy priorities, risks lurking beneath buoyant markets, and the limits of mixed economic data for asset allocators. Tune in for an incisive discussion on navigating an increasingly uncertain investing landscape.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:06 Trump taking us back to the 19th century with tariffs
03:14 Tariffs unlikely to slow down the US economy much
04:57 Fed erring on side of liquidity due to federal deficit, hasn't reduced reserves
06:27 Fed playing "chicken" with liquidity levels in the economy
08:03 Politics making Fed governors protective and reluctant to cut rates
09:45 Treasury's ebb and flow of cash and Fed's balance sheet runoff impacting liquidity
12:36 Fed's difficulty in determining minimum liquidity levels
13:43 Treasury Secretary Bessent inheriting Yellen's reliance on short-term T-bills
15:42 Appetite for longer-dated Treasuries depends on the coupon
17:49 Structural impediments in the mortgage market from QE during COVID
18:19 Taxes to be a big focus for Trump administration
19:51 Danger of relying on long-dated Treasury issuance to finance deficits
21:11 Strong liquidity masking underlying economic issues
22:44 Inflation likely here to stay given high debt levels
24:14 Expecting Fed rate cuts, mini boom, then major housing reset in 2027-28
25:55 Treasury Secretary Bessent named acting head of CFPB after firing Chopra
27:13 Stock market valuations stretched, risks from passive strategies selling
29:54 Trump likened to a disruptive Andrew Jackson, investors may seek safety
31:48 Mixed economic data making asset allocation challenging
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Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 230 for an in-person Fed day analysis following the January FOMC meeting. She breaks down Powell's press conference, newly released 2019 Fed transcripts, and signals of labor market weakness that official numbers might miss. DiMartino Booth explains why the Fed's shift to market-based inflation metrics could accelerate rate cuts, while warning about mounting evidence of job market deterioration hidden beneath headline numbers.
A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.
DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.
Links:
QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth
Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655
Timestamps:
0:00 Opening discussion on disinflationary pressures1:09 Analysis of 2019 Fed transcripts and global trade impact3:13 Discussion of Conference Board data and labor market signals8:56 Analysis of rental market dynamics and Fed's new inflation metrics17:36 Housing market analysis and renter dynamics18:28 Impact of tariffs on economy and growth21:54 Release timing of Fed transcripts and messaging23:16 Current state of economy and job market analysis28:54 Federal employee buyouts and workforce implications34:11 Evolution of layoff reporting and gig economy impact38:54 Discussion of fiscal policy mechanisms and inflation41:30 Analysis of potential government efficiency measures47:00 AI impact on markets and tech valuations50:57 Societal shifts in spending habits and debt management54:22 Closing remarks and where to find her work
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Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo, CEO of David Woo Unbound, joins Julia La Roche on episode 228 in a two-part interview. On Monday, he rejoined to provide analysis on China's DeepSeek AI breakthrough and the massive macro implications. On Friday, he provided a deep dive into Trump's second term strategy and the global chess moves, from US-China negotiations to the crucial role of Mexico in border security.
In Part 1, Woo discusses how DeepSeek's AI model from China has impacted markets, with the NASDAQ down 3% and Nvidia dropping over 16%. He examines how this development challenges US tech monopolies' dominance and what this means for US economic exceptionalism and tech sector valuations.
In Part 2, Woo analyzes the challenges facing Trump's second term, particularly regarding fiscal policy and the extension of the 2017 tax cuts. He highlights the critical role of the Freedom Caucus, which holds significant power with Republicans' one-seat majority in the House. The discussion covers several key areas:
The potential alliance between the Freedom Caucus and Elon Musk on fiscal policy Mexico's proactive approach to border security and trade relations Contrasting positions of Mexico and Canada on trade negotiations The complexities of the TikTok situation and potential solutions US-China relations and the possibility of returning to the Phase One trade agreement Investment opportunities in Chinese equities, the Mexican peso, and 5-year US TreasuriesLinks:
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound
Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound
Part 1: DeepSeek Discussion
0:00 Intro with David Woo1:02 DeepSeek's impact on markets and US tech dominance3:13 Analysis of US market capitalization growth5:47 Discussion of US tech monopolies and cloud computing7:14 DeepSeek's challenge to US AI dominance9:09 Market reaction to DeepSeek's test results11:15 Impact on technology monetization12:17 Conclusion
Part 2
12:30 Introduction 13:21 Trump administration challenges21:21 Freedom Caucus and fiscal policy34:25 Trump's foreign policy approach36:49 TikTok situation analysis41:44 US-China trade relations43:40 Trump's 2017 China visit story46:03 Chinese market investment outlook49:10 Mexico vs Canada analysis56:10 US Treasury market outlook59:13 Closing thoughts
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Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 227 to shares his outlook for the US economy and financial markets in 2025. Applying his famed "quantity theory of money," Professor Hanke warns that the economy is set to slow this year due to the lagged effects of past monetary and fiscal policies. He cautions that it's "going to be a year of investing dangerously," with his proprietary bubble detector signaling that markets are extremely overvalued and complacent, reaching the highest levels ever. Hanke also discusses the risks posed by runaway government debt, advocates for right-sizing government's role in the economy, and shares his latest books and research.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hanke
Capital, Interest, and Waiting: Controversies, Puzzles, and New Additions to Capital Theory https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-63398-0
Making Money Work: How to Rewrite the Rules of Our Financial System:
https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/1394257260
https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/making-money-work-matt-sekerke/1146170520
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:11 Macro outlook using quantity theory of money
03:38 Impact of Fed policy on asset prices, inequality, and inflation
07:06 How Fed-driven inequality influenced 2024 election outcome
10:43 China's economic troubles and deflationary risks
13:28 Europe's economic stagnation and fiscal woes
15:38 Likelihood of a recession in 2025 under the new administration
17:36 Parallels to the Reagan era and smart economic policies
20:32 Concerns about Trump's mercantilist trade policies and border control plans
23:43 Hanke's bubble detector signaling overvalued, complacent markets
26:46 Runaway US national debt - the lying price problem and moral hazard
30:06 Restoring confidence and implementing a constitutional debt brake
32:00 Right-sizing government to boost economic growth
33:53 Simplifying taxes with a flat tax
35:48 Hanke's latest books and how to follow his work
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Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 226 to share his perspective on the biggest challenges facing investors in 2025. Oakley discusses the potential collision between high government debt levels and rising interest rates. He expresses concerns about the new administration's economic plans sparking inflation, and the difficulties in refinancing government debt given budget shortfalls. Oakley also shares his market outlook, highlighting risks around investor complacency, the popularity of passive investing, and the importance of maintaining liquidity. He provides insights from his decades of investing experience, including how he navigated previous turbulent markets. Oakley also previews his upcoming book on generational wealth and the lessons learned from his own upbringing.
With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective.
He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation.
00:00 Introduction and welcome01:52 Macro outlook: debt vs interest rates04:42 Inflation concerns with new administration
06:30 Challenges refinancing government debt09:17 Markets driven by rumors over fundamentals11:12 Government's economic impact; recession risks15:54 Oakley's past performance in turbulent markets19:11 Risks of passive investing given demographics22:05 Market complacency and emotional investing25:23 Finding value in stable dividend stocks28:04 Views on Bitcoin as speculation31:47 Fed's interest rate dilemma34:12 Potential paths out of US debt problem37:29 Recession risks from spending cuts39:16 Maintaining high liquidity given risks42:10 Upcoming book on generational wealth46:40 Instilling work ethic despite wealth49:41 Closing thoughts on balance and liquidity -
Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, joins the Julia La Roche Show to explain why he remains surprised by economic resilience despite mounting challenges, breaks down why gold could reach $9,000-$10,000 as governments inflate away debt obligations, and shares specific sectors he sees as undervalued including oil & gas, community banks, and wholesale insurance. Rule also provides a sobering analysis of America's $130+ trillion in total obligations, explains why the government will likely choose gradual inflation over outright default, and offers advice for younger generations on navigating what he expects to be a challenging decade ahead.
Register for the Rick Rule Symposium 2025.
Timestamps:00:00 Welcome to Rick Rule01:01 Economic resilience despite challenges02:52 Winners and losers in current economy03:16 Warning signs: Fed losing control of long yields04:33 Value opportunities in out-of-favor stocks05:26 Gold price outlook and analysis07:34 Real inflation vs CPI discussion08:33 Foreign government gold buying10:59 Price targets and Warren Buffett's wisdom12:06 1970s inflation comparison14:01 Impact of high inflation environments17:13 Entitlement obligations analysis19:37 Social Security reform discussion23:00 10-year reckoning outlook24:59 Department of Government Efficiency critique28:15 Solutions to government spending30:23 Monetary reset scenarios35:04 Investment opportunities discussion39:07 Canadian political outlook44:46 Portfolio positioning and cash levels47:48 Closing thoughts and upcoming events
Links:
Rick Rule Symposium: https://registration.allintheloop.net/register/event/rick-rule-symposium-2025-ccha?via=juliaRule Investment Media: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.com
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Marc Faber, editor and publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, joins the Julia La Roche Show to break down why he believes asset inflation is coming to an end while consumer price inflation accelerates. He explains why 70% of households are struggling despite government statistics showing growth, critiques Federal Reserve policies that favor Wall Street over Main Street, and shares his framework for portfolio allocation across real estate, stocks, bonds, and precious metals. Faber also provides a tour of his rare book and communist memorabilia collection in his office while sharing thoughts on capitalism, society, and his newest motorcycle.Timestamps:00:00 Welcome to Marc Faber00:57 Macro overview and government statistics02:52 Fed policy favoring the wealthy04:41 Political shifts in Europe and Argentina06:09 Market outlook and policy implications08:57 US indices topping out analysis11:12 Value opportunities in Asian markets13:37 Gold price history and precious metals14:35 Bond market size discussion16:37 Monetary inflation distortions19:56 Debt spiral and hyperinflation risks21:21 Insurance and property discussion23:02 Government role in economy26:00 Trust and capitalism discussion28:01 Trump administration outlook32:00 Real economy recession analysis34:35 Asset vs consumer price inflation40:04 Bureau of Labor Statistics critique42:49 End of asset inflation thesis44:35 Cost of living increases examples47:24 Portfolio allocation framework49:55 Communist memorabilia collection54:21 Closing thoughts Links:The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report: https://www.gloomboomdoom.com
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George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG, joins the Julia La Roche Show to discuss why 2025 will be a "balancing act" as markets transition from record highs to new economic realities. In this wide-ranging conversation, Goncalves explains why the Trump administration faces a critical choice between taking "short-term pain for long-term gain" early in the term or continuing fiscal largesse, analyzes why the 10-year yield breaking above 4.75% could trigger market turbulence, and breaks down why the Federal Reserve needs to keep cutting rates to avoid a recession in the second half of the year.
Links:
https://x.com/bondstrategist
Timestamps:
00:00 Welcome to George Goncalves
01:17 Background and macro framework
03:15 2025 as a "balancing act"
05:35 Market complacency and valuations
07:19 Short-term pain for long-term gain
09:43 Business vs. government-led growth
11:01 Different starting points from Trump 1.0
13:38 Economy propped up by fiscal spending
16:21 Interest rates and fiscal policy
17:14 Bond market dynamics explanation
21:43 Credit market implications
23:26 Soft landing analysis
28:01 Market euphoria and transition risks
29:41 Deficit and debt analysis
33:05 Scott Bessent's 3-3-3 plan analysis
34:40 Fed policy outlook for 2025
39:15 Closing thoughts on dollar and oil
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Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joins Episode 223 of the Julia La Roche Show for his first outlook of 2025. Whalen explains why he believes long-term interest rates could rise unless Trump makes "real progress" on the federal deficit, warns a "kamikaze release" of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from conservatorship without legislation would be highly disruptive, and shares why focusing on Treasury policy rather than the Federal Reserve is "all that matters." He also discusses why stocks could be "ready for a downward adjustment" after outperforming in 2023-2024, and offers a surprisingly optimistic longer-term view if Washington can demonstrate "real leadership."
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/
Timestamps:
00:00 Welcome back to Chris Whalen
01:12 2024 retrospective and consumer spending
02:42 Housing affordability and discretionary spending
04:49 Inflation outlook and Fed policy
06:31 Fed's focus on market stability over inflation
08:16 Fed rate cuts projection for 2025
10:52 Trump administration 2.0 outlook
11:42 Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac conservatorship discussion
13:21 Recession probability assessment
15:25 GSE release implications
19:45 Best approach to GSE reform
21:47 Federal deficit challenges
23:38 US debt situation and spending freeze
25:49 Treasury debt issuance strategy
27:42 Shifting narrative from Fed to Treasury
28:36 Market outlook for 2025
30:50 Closing thoughts on leadership and demographics
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