Episodios
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Emily and Geoff quickly debrief on the weekâs tariff news, including new 25% levies on steel and aluminum imports, before chatting all things semiconductors with Bruce Andrews, who until recently served as Intelâs chief government affairs officer. (Note: This episode was recorded Wednesday February 12, before President Trump's Thursday statements on reciprocal tariffs.)
White House Proclamation âAdjusting Steel Imports Into the United Statesâ, February 10, 2025
Bruceâs book recommendation âOn Xi Jinpingâ by Kevin Rudd
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Emily and Geoff digest this past weekendâs on-again, off-again 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as the 10% tariffs on China (that at least for now are still here), and debate what these tariff dramas mean for the Trump teamâs longer-term ambitions to restructure the global economic order.
Geoffrey Gertz and Emily Kilcrease, âA World Safe for Prosperity: How America Can Foster Economic Security,â Foreign Affairs, February 6, 2025
Peter Harrell, âThe Case Against IEEPA Tariffs,â Lawfare, January 31, 2025
Ambassador Robert E. Lighthizer, âWant Free Trade? May I Introduce You to the Tariff,â The New York Times, February 6, 2025
Noah Smith, âWhen are Tariffs Good?â, Noahpinon, February 6, 2025
Emily Kilcrease, "Articulate a Clear Tariff Roadmap," CNAS, January 20, 2025
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Emily and Geoff play a quick round of Tariff Tarot to dissect Trumpâs tariff threats on Colombia last weekend. Then they dig in to the bipartisan debate over banning various connected products, including drones, from China, and explain why this may be one area of continuity between the Biden and Trump administrations. Finally, Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow and director of the CNAS Defense Program, joins to discuss her research on how drones are changing warfare and why the United States needs to invest in the drone industrial base.
âSecuring the Information and Communications Technology and Services Supply Chain: Unmanned Aircraft Systemsâ
Stacie Pettyjohn, Hannah Dennis and Molly Campbell, âSwarms over the Strait: Drone Warfare in a Future Fight to Defend Taiwanâ
Stacie Pettyjohn, âEvolution Not Revolution: Drone Warfare in Russiaâs 2022 Invasion of Ukraineâ
Emily Kilcrease, âUsing a Sanctions Framework to Fix the ICTS Executive Order,â Lawfare
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Emily and Geoff dive in on the unfinished business Trump is inheriting and unpack what we learned from the America First Trade Policy executive memo. Plus we share a few thoughts on how to get the economic security agenda started on the right track, based on our contributions to a new CNAS report on Trumpâs First 100 Days.
Show notes:
America First Trade Policy memo
Stephan Miranâs âA Userâs Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System"
CNAS Report: âThe First 100 Daysâ
And see CNAS âDisorderly Conductâ report for prior analysis of the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement, the merging of economic and security interests, and the need for economic security agreements
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AI expert Paul Scharre, executive vice president and director of studies at the Center for a New American Security, joins Emily and Geoff to dig into the Biden Administrationâs latest export controls on advanced semiconductors and AI plus the prospects for building a global regime to control AI diffusion.
Press release and summary of the AI diffusion rule from the Commerce Department
Paul Scharre, Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
Paul Scharre, âDecoupling Wastes U.S. Leverage on China,â Foreign Policy
Paul Scharre, âRegulating AI is Easier than you Think,â Time
Epoch AI, a great data source on AI developments: epoch.ai
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Deputy Secretary Don Graves joins Emily to talk about the national security mission of the Department of Commerce and to unveil Commerceâs national security strategy.
Read the strategy: âThe Decisive Decade: Advancing National Security at the Department of Commerceâ
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Join Emily and Geoff to catch up on a whole bunch of economic security news, including the ill fated Nippon Steel / U.S. Steel deal, new chips export controls, and TikTikâs bad day in court. Plus, introducing âTariff Tarot,â a segment to help you make sense of all the tariff proposals and threats from the incoming administration, and an explainer on whether the President has the power to impose all the tariffs heâs talking about (spoiler: yup, sure does).
Read more!
Jacob Helberg, âThe Wires of War: Technology and the Global Struggle for Powerâ https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Wires-of-War/Jacob-Helberg/9781982144449
Financial Times, âBiden administration split over US Steel dealâ https://www.ft.com/content/c86cebe1-6ece-42cc-9d89-65d96bbd69c6
Edward Alden, âTrump Will Be His Own Trade Czarâ Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/12/11/trump-trade-tariffs-china-europe-canada-mexico-imports-exports/
Douglas A. Irwin, âClashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policyâ https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/C/bo24475328.html
Kathleen Claussen and Timothy Meyer, âHow âEconomic Securityâ is Re-shaping Presidential Powerâ Just Security https://www.justsecurity.org/97760/economic-security-presidential-power/
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Emily and Geoff react to the nominations of Scott Bessent for U.S. Treasury Secretary and Howard Lutnick for U.S. Commerce Secretary and overall point man for trade and tariffs. Then Evan Robinson-Johnson, business reporter from the Pittsburgh Post Gazette, joins to talk about the national security review of Nippon Steelâs bid to buy U.S. Steel - which both President Biden and President-elect Trump have vowed to block. Complicated labor union dynamics, the companiesâ threat to sue, and election-year politics have kept this deal in purgatory, but an impending government deadline could force action in the coming weeks.
âEditorial: Time for post-election sanity: Approve Nippon-U.S. Steel dealâ by the Pittsburgh Post Gazette editorial boardâJapanese steelmaker Nippon says it will not accept presidential block of U.S. Steel dealâ by Evan Robinson-Johnson, Pittsburgh Post Gazette
âArbitration board signals support for U.S. Steelâs sale to Nippon in a blow to United Steelworkers unionâ by Evan Robinson-Johnson, Pittsburgh Post Gazette
"US Steel Review Targeted by Republicans for Potential Probe" by Josh Wingrove, Bloomberg
âUnder Pressure, Dubai Company Drops Ports Dealâ by David E. Sanger, The New York Times
Ralls V. CFIUS decision by U.S. Court of Appeals, District of Columbia Circuit
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Emily and Geoff switch from obsessing over the election to obsessing over the transition. They dig into what a Trump 2.0 presidency will mean for tariffs, sanctions, export controls, and technology competition - and how the rest of the world might respond.
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The Biden administration released its final rule on regulating outbound U.S. investments going into sensitive tech sectors in China. Emily and Geoff dig into the rule, along with what to expect next from Congress and international partners.
Check out prior CNAS work on outbound investment:
Joint CNAS-Atlantic Council report, "Sand in the Silicon: Designing an Outbound Investment Controls Mechanism"
Public comments on the draft rule:https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/comments-on-provisions-pertaining-to-u[âŠ]nal-security-technologies-and-products-in-countries-of-concernhttps://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/provisions-pertaining-to-u-s-investmen[âŠ]nal-security-technologies-and-products-in-countries-of-concern
Congressional testimony:
https://www.cnas.org/publications/congressional-testimony/principles-and-policy-options-for-designing-better-investment-barriers
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Emily and Geoff tackle some of the most common questions on starting and building a career in the field of economic security, with the help of MichĂšle Flournoy, former Under Secretary of Defense as well as the co-founder and current Chair of the Board of the Center for a New American Security, and John Hughes, a partner at the strategic advisory firm DGA Group and a CNAS Adjunct Senior Fellow.
Check out CNASâ current internship and job opportunities at https://www.cnas.org/careers.
and read MichĂšle's recommendation:
A Passion for Leadership: Lessons on Change and Reform from Fifty Years of Public Service by Bob Gates.
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Join Emily Kilcrease and researcher Eleanor Hume to discuss the latest edition of CNAS's Sanctions by the Numbers series, examining how the U.S.'s sanctions policy on China has shifted under the Biden administration.
Find the full report and its findings here: Sanctions by the Numbers: Comparing the Trump and Biden Administrationsâ Sanctions and Export Controls on China
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That escalated quickly! Emily and Geoff discuss why the U.S. aim to deny China access to the computing power necessary for frontier AI capabilities has led to an ever expanding set of new export controls. They are joined by Reed Albergotti of Semafor to talk about what this means for the Middle East's tech ambitions and by Pablo Chavez to share his analysis on the drive for sovereign AI around the world.
Check out Emily's remarks on America's evolving export control strategy and Reed's reporting from the Middle East: "How the UAE Got the U.S. to Bless its AI Ambitions" and U.S. Closer to Green Lighting NVIDIA Chips for Saudi Arabia.
Also read Pablo's two articles, Toward Digital Solidarity and Vassals vs. Rivals: The Geopolitical Future of AI Competition.
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Ambassador Jovita NeliupĆĄienÄ, the European Union's Ambassador to the United States, joins Emily and Geoff for a wide-ranging conversation on Europe's growing role as a economic statecraft power, the importance of the transatlantic alliance in addressing the strategic challenges posed by Russia and China, and why all Americans should drink champagne
Ambassador NeliupĆĄienÄ recommends listeners tune in to the Trade-Off podcast about the people, politics, and power inside Europeâs trade policy.
Further Reading:
EU Competitiveness: Looking Ahead (The Draghi Report)
Containing Crisis: Strategic Concepts for Coercive Economic Statecraft from CNAS
The Brussels Effect: How the European Union Rules the World by Anu Bradford
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NRC Media reporter Marc Hijink joined co-host Emily Kilcrease at a CNAS event to discuss his book, Focus: The ASML Way. For decades, ASML - the most valuable technology company in Europe - operated in the shadows, despite the fact that roughly 90 percent of all chips worldwide are made with ASMLâs machines. In recent years, the Dutch manufacturing company has found itself at the center of a geopolitical storm between China and the United States and Europe. In this conversation, we delve into the history of the company, how it came to dominate the industry, and how it is navigating increasingly fraught geopolitical waters.
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Geoff and Emily talk about the tensions between social media platforms and governments around the world, including Telegramâs troubles in France and Xâs spats with Brazil and Europe. Carrie Cordero, CNAS General Counsel and Robert M. Gates Senior Fellow, joins to talk TikTok and why itâs so complicated to ban the app in the United States.
Carrie Cordero is the Robert M. Gates Senior Fellow and General Counsel at CNAS. Her research and writing interests focus on homeland security and intelligence community oversight, transparency, surveillance, cybersecurity, and related national and homeland security law and policy issues.
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On this international episode of Derisky Business, recorded at the United States Studies Center in Sydney, Australia, Dr. Mike Green joins the podcast to discuss how Australia and other Pacific countries view economic security issues, what countries in the region think about the U.S. presidential election, and how he is preparing for armageddon.
Mikeâs Recommended Reading/Listening: Planning Armageddon: British Economic Warfare and the First World War, The Empire Podcast
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Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security, joins Emily and Geoff to discuss his new book, co-authored with Robert Blackwill, Lost Decade: The US Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power, and his fever dreams for a trade agreement in Asia.
Richard Fontaine is the Chief Executive Officer of the Center for a New American Security. Prior to coming to CNAS, he was foreign policy advisor to Senator John McCain and worked at the State Department, the National Security Council, and on the staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.âŻâŻ
Richard's recommended reading
Lost Decade: The U.S. Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power by Richard Fontaine and Robert Blackwill
The Rise and Fall of the Economic Pivot to Asia by Richard Fontaine and Robert Blackwill
The Price of Nostalgia, Adam Posen
Fundamentals: Ten Keys to Reality by Frank Wilczek
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Dan Rosen, leading expert on China's economy and head of the Rhodium Group's China practice, joins Emily and Geoff to talk about the recently concluded third plenum meetings in China, what China's economy wants to be when it grows up, and the impacts of China's economic downturn on U.S.-China relations.
Emily Kilcrease is senior fellow and program director in the Energy, Economics, & Security Program at the CNAS. Her research focuses on economic statecraft and economic security.
Geoff Gertz is senior fellow in the Energy, Economics, & Security Team at the Center for a New American Security. His research focuses on technology competition, digital policy and data governance, and geoeconomics.
Read new research from the CNAS Energy, Economics & Security team: Sanctions by the Numbers: 2023 Year in ReviewDisorderly Conduct: How U.S.-China Competition Upended the International Economic Order & What the U.S. Can Do to Fix It
Dan's Recommended Reading: Forging a Positive Vision of Economic Statecraft by Daleep Singh.
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Emily and Geoff discuss the U.S. presidential election and what that might mean for economic security policy. They get into trade policy, what both candidates would do to compete with China, and where U.S. partners and allies fit in to both candidates' vision.
Emily Kilcrease is senior fellow and program director in the Energy, Economics, & Security Program at the CNAS. Her research focuses on economic statecraft and economic security.
Geoff Gertz is senior fellow in the Energy, Economics, & Security Team at the Center for a New American Security. His research focuses on technology competition, digital policy and data governance, and geoeconomics.
Read new research from the CNAS Energy, Economics & Security team: Sanctions by the Numbers: 2023 Year in ReviewDisorderly Conduct: How U.S.-China Competition Upended the International Economic Order & What the U.S. Can Do to Fix It
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