Episodios
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State of the Climate - 2024 and Beyond
2024 is confirmed as the hottest year on record, surpassing 2023, and marking a decade of unprecedented heat. This has triggered extreme weather events globally and heightened concerns about the potential for earlier-than-expected breaches of the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C warming threshold. Scientists are investigating factors beyond fossil fuel emissions and El Niño, such as aerosol reductions from shipping regulations and decreased cloud cover, to fully explain the surge in temperatures. While international agreements and initiatives are in place, urgent and accelerated climate action is imperative to mitigate future warming and adapt to its impacts.
Key Themes and Ideas:
Record-Breaking Temperatures:2024 is set to be the warmest year on record, continuing a trend of escalating temperatures: "The year 2024 is set to be the warmest on record, capping a decade of unprecedented heat fuelled by human activities." (UN News)The past decade has seen the warmest years on record. "The past 10 years have been the warmest 10 years since record-keeping began." (NPR)Average global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. (Al Jazeera)Earth experienced its warmest day ever on July 22, 2024. (Al Jazeera)January 2024 was the warmest January on record, with an average surface air temperature of 13.14ËC. (Al Jazeera)Exceedance of Paris Agreement Thresholds:There is growing concern that long-term warming may exceed the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit sooner than expected. "Recent warming has sparked debate about whether the world might exceed the 1.5â°C Paris Agreement limit earlier than previously estimated." (Twelve months at 1.5â°C signals earlier than expected breach of Paris Agreement threshold)Twelve consecutive months with temperatures at least 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels raises alarms, although experts note this doesn't automatically mean the long-term goal has been exceeded.Analysis suggests that exceeding 1.5°C for 12 consecutive months indicates the Paris Agreement threshold is likely to have already been crossed. "Hence, in CMIP6 simulations, 12 consecutive months above 1.5â°C indicates that the Paris Agreement threshold is likely to have already been crossed" (Twelve months at 1.5â°C signals earlier than expected breach of Paris Agreement threshold)Even exceeding the threshold in one year doesn't signal complete failure. Temperatures need to breach 1.5 degrees Celsius consistently, calculated over a 20-year average. "Passing that threshold in one year doesn't mean countries have failed, however. Temperatures would need to consistently breach 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to scientists, calculated over a 20-year average." (NPR)Extreme Weather Events:Rising temperatures are linked to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events: "Climate change also intensified 26 of the 29 weather events studied by World Weather Attribution that killed at least 3700 people and displaced millions." (UN News)Examples of extreme events include deadly floods, devastating wildfires, early heatwaves, and catastrophic hurricanes. (Al Jazeera)Europe could see millions of deaths from extreme heat by the end of the century if carbon pollution is not reduced and adaptation measures aren't implemented. "Extreme temperatures â mostly heat â are projected to kill as many as 2.3 million people in Europe by the end of the century unless countries get better at reducing carbon pollution and adapting to hotter conditions, a new study says." (TIME) -
Future of FEMA
Subject: Potential Restructuring or Elimination of FEMA and State Preparedness
Summary: Meteorology Matters examines the future of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in light of increasing disaster frequency and severity due to climate change. One article explores the ability of states to manage disasters without FEMA, highlighting the agency's crucial role in coordinating resources and providing financial aid. The second article details a political move by the Trump administration to potentially dismantle or significantly alter FEMA, sparking concerns about disaster relief and response capabilities.
Key Themes and Ideas:
The Critical Role of FEMA:FEMA coordinates federal resources, provides financial assistance, and offers logistical support during disasters. This includes coordinating rescue operations, restoring power, delivering supplies, and managing the National Flood Insurance Program.FEMA's assistance is triggered after a state requests an emergency declaration and demonstrates the disaster exceeds their capacity.The article "If FEMA didn't exist..." emphasizes that FEMA "pools federal resources to allow states to recover faster from expensive disasters."Without FEMA, states, particularly smaller, rural, or less wealthy ones, would struggle significantly to manage disaster response and recovery. Lynn Budd, director of the Wyoming Office of Homeland Security, stated, "States donât have that capability built to handle a disaster every single year."The absence of FEMA could lead to uneven recovery, with wealthier areas recovering faster and poorer areas facing prolonged hardship.The agency also manages the National Flood Insurance Program, offers disaster preparedness training and helps states develop response plans to improve their overall response systems. -
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The Tempest Stela and Bronze Age Chronology
Subject: Analysis of the "Tempest Stela" and its potential impact on Bronze Age chronology.
Executive Summary:
A new interpretation of the "Tempest Stela," a 3,500-year-old Egyptian stone block, suggests it may be the world's oldest weather report, describing severe weather events potentially linked to the volcanic eruption at Thera (Santorini). This connection, if valid, could revise the dating of the reign of Pharaoh Ahmose, pushing it back by 30-50 years. This shift would have significant ramifications for the established chronology of the ancient Near East and Eastern Mediterranean, potentially resolving discrepancies between archaeological evidence and radiocarbon dating and offering new insights into the rise and fall of Bronze Age empires.
Key Themes and Ideas:
The Tempest Stela as a Weather Report: The inscription on the stela, previously interpreted by some as metaphorical, is now argued to be a literal account of extreme weather events. The inscription describes "rain, darkness and âthe sky being in storm without cessation, louder than the cries of the masses.â" Further details include "a tempest of rain," and "bodies floating down the Nile like âskiffs of papyrus.â"Connection to the Thera Eruption: Researchers believe the weather patterns described on the stela could be the result of the massive volcanic eruption at Thera. This eruption, which occurred in the Mediterranean, would have had widespread climatological effects, including in Egypt. According to Marina Baldi, a scientist in climatology and meteorology, "A modification in the atmospheric circulation after the eruption could have driven a change in the precipitation regime of the region. Therefore the episode in the Tempest Stela could be a consequence of these climatological changes."Revised Chronology of Ahmose's Reign: If the stela does describe the aftermath of the Thera eruption, the dating of Ahmoseâs reign, currently estimated at around 1550 B.C., could be pushed back 30-50 years earlier. As Nadine Moeller, assistant professor of Egyptian archaeology notes, "This is important to scholars of the ancient Near East and eastern Mediterranean, generally because the chronology that archaeologists use is based on the lists of Egyptian pharaohs, and this new information could adjust those dates."Impact on Bronze Age History: A revised dating of Ahmose's reign has the potential to realign the timeline of other important events in the ancient Near East, such as the fall of the Canaanites and the collapse of the Babylonian Empire. David Schloen, associate professor in the Oriental Institute, argues that "This new information would provide a better understanding of the role of the environment in the development and destruction of empires in the ancient Middle East." The eruption and resulting tsunami could have weakened the Hyksos rulers of Egypt and disrupted trade, contributing to the fall of the Babylonian Empire.Resolution of Dating Discrepancies: Radiocarbon dating of an olive tree buried under volcanic residue placed the Thera eruption at 1621-1605 B.C.Conclusion:
The interpretation of the Tempest Stela as a record of the Thera eruption's impact presents a compelling argument for revising the chronology of the Bronze Age Near East. While further research is needed, this new perspective has the potential to significantly alter our understanding of this crucial period in human history.
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DOGE Scrutinizes NOAA
Date: February 10, 2025
Subject: Review of the Department of Government Efficiency's (DOGE) actions and potential impacts on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Executive Summary:
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk, is actively scrutinizing and gaining access to NOAA's IT systems. This has raised significant concerns about potential budget and staff cuts, the loss or damage of vital climate and weather data, impacts on NOAA's ability to provide critical services (like weather forecasting and hurricane tracking), and the removal of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) related materials. The situation is described as a "hostile corporate takeover" by some observers and is linked to Project 2025, a conservative plan to dismantle and downsize NOAA. These actions are generating strong opposition from Democratic lawmakers and concerns from former NOAA officials and related organizations.
Key Themes and Information:
DOGE Access and Actions:DOGE has gained access to NOAA's IT systems, raising concerns about the security of sensitive data. At least one member of DOGE was requested access.DOGE staffers reportedly "blew through security" and entered NOAA headquarters. As Andrew Rosenberg noted, "They apparently just sort of walked past security and said: âGet out of my way,â and theyâre looking for access for the IT systems, as they have in other agencies."The DOGE is reportedly looking for anything tied to DEI and ordering the removal of DEI-related materials from bulletin boards, websites, and internal communications. Employee resource groups and support spaces have also been taken down.DOGE employee Nikhil Rajpal was given edit access to NOAA's documents, reportedly following an order from acting Secretary of Commerce Jeremy Pelter.The National Marine Fisheries Service has been ordered to halt "ALL INTERNATIONAL ENGAGEMENTS."Personnel Changes and Potential Impacts:NOAA is preparing for potential layoffs and budget cuts. The agency has been told to expect to lose half of its employees and prepare for a 30% budget cut, according to former NOAA officials.A NOAA employee who led diversity and inclusion efforts was placed on administrative leave.There are concerns that NOAA's "irreplaceable climate and weather data could be damaged or lost."Impact on NOAA's Mission and Services:Concerns that cuts to NOAA could negatively impact its ability to provide critical services, including weather forecasts and warnings for severe weather events like hurricanes, wildfires, and tornadoes. As Jennifer Brady of Climate Central notes, "NOAA is a vital piece of our communication strategy...Their data is vetted, it's verified. So, we know we can use it and trust it in our reports."The Union of Concerned Scientists' Juan Declet-Barreto describes the situation as "a hostile corporate takeover of a government agency that provides a suite of services to the public to protect lives and to protect property."There is a fear that privatizing weather forecasts could put more Americans at risk, especially if access to this information becomes a paid service.Project 2025 Connection:DOGE's actions are linked to Project 2025, a conservative plan that advocates for breaking up and downsizing NOAA, deeming it "one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry and, as such, is harmful to future U.S. prosperity." -
Environmental Impacts of Satellite Re-entry
Executive Summary:
Meteorology Matters synthesizes information from five sources regarding the growing concern over the environmental impact of satellites burning up in the atmosphere upon re-entry. Driven by the increasing number of satellites, particularly mega-constellations like Starlink, this process releases metallic particles into the mesosphere and stratosphere, potentially affecting ozone depletion and climate. While research is ongoing, studies indicate a significant increase in stratospheric aluminum levels and raise concerns about the long-term consequences of this "satellite ash."
Key Themes and Ideas:
The Rise of Satellite Constellations and Increased Re-entries:The number of satellites in orbit has increased dramatically in recent years, and is expected to continue growing exponentially. The MIT Technology Review article notes, "Some 15 years ago, barely a thousand satellites orbited our planet. Now the number has risen to about 10,000, and with the rise of satellite constellations like Starlink, another tenfold increase is forecast by the end of this decade."This growth leads to a corresponding increase in satellite re-entries as these satellites reach the end of their operational lives. The same article states that 2024 had already seen "950 satellite reentries" by late November."Almost 20 percent of all satellites ever launched have re-entered Earthâs atmosphere in the last half-decade, burning up in superfast, superhot blazes," according to the New York Times article.The Problem of Satellite Ash:When satellites re-enter the atmosphere, they burn up, releasing metallic particles, primarily aluminum, into the atmosphere. This is described as "satellite ash."The MIT Technology Review article emphasizes that this ash "can harm the atmosphere and potentially alter the climate."The PNAS paper provides evidence: "Measurements show that about 10% of the aerosol particles in the stratosphere contain aluminum and other metals that originated from the 'burn-up' of satellites and rocket stages during reentry." It also notes that planned increases in satellite numbers "could cause up to half of stratospheric sulfuric acid particles to contain metals from reentry."Atmospheric Impact & Ozone Depletion:The primary concern revolves around the potential impact on the ozone layer. "The long-term accumulation of aluminum oxides from reentering satellites can cause significant ozone depletion" (Potential Ozone Depletion From Satellite Demise During Atmospheric Reentry in th.pdf).The PNAS paper notes the lack of definite implications yet identified but raises the possibility of effects on "the nucleation of ice or nitric acid trihydrate (NAT)," which could impact polar stratospheric clouds.The "Potential Ozone Depletion" source determined the 2022 level of aluminum from satellite reentry to be a "29.5% increase of aluminum in the atmosphere above the natural level, resulting in around 17 metric tons of aluminum oxides injected into the mesosphere."Composition of the Ash & Stratospheric Aerosol Changes:Research indicates that the metallic content of stratospheric aerosol particles is changing due to satellite re-entry. The PNAS paper found "over 20 elements from reentry were detected and were present in ratios consistent with alloys used in spacecraft."Specific metals identified include lithium, aluminum, copper, niobium, silver, and hafnium. The presence of these metals can be linked to specific components -
FEMA TSA Hotels https://www.femaemergencyhotels.com/
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Meteorology Matters summarizes the ongoing recovery efforts in Western North Carolina and Florida following Tropical Storm Helene. The storm has caused widespread displacement, economic hardship, and infrastructure damage, requiring extensive intervention from FEMA, state, and local agencies, as well as volunteer organizations. The recovery process is complex, with challenges including housing shortages, bureaucratic hurdles, and financial burdens on individuals and utility customers.
Key Themes and Information:
1. Housing Crisis and FEMA Transitional Sheltering Assistance (TSA):
WNC Exodus from Hotels: Thousands of individuals and families displaced by Helene have left FEMA-funded hotel accommodations in Western North Carolina. "In early January, the agency reported that over 5,700 households had been in the program at the beginning of 2025, but by Jan. 16 around 3,000 of those households had left the program." As of February 4th, only 762 households remained in the program in the region.Buncombe County Impact: A significant portion of those remaining in the TSA program are in Buncombe County (585 households). A number of these were deemed ineligible for continued assistance.Rental Assistance Increase: FEMA rental assistance has increased, suggesting some are moving into more permanent housing: "FEMA Representative Bob Spence noted that while the number of households utilizing the program has dropped, rental assistance from FEMA 'has gone up,' indicating that many are moving into more permanent housing solutions after Helene." However, the demand for affordable housing remains a critical issue.Eligibility Challenges and Ineligibility Reasons: Eligibility for TSA depends on FEMA inspections determining housing uninhabitability due to storm damage. Reasons for ineligibility include no eligible damage to the home, the home being habitable, inability to reach the survivor for inspection, missed inspections, withdrawal from the program, or being unhoused before the disaster. Some people avoided contacting FEMA because they knew they shouldn't be in the hotel anymore.Individual Stories of Displacement: The article highlights stories of individuals like Kevin Moreland and Randy Billiot, illustrating the difficulties people face in finding suitable housing. Moreland's criminal background presents a significant barrier, while Billiot's health issues and eviction exacerbate his vulnerability. "'Some people got moved into a house. Some people into the hospital and some onto the street, you know?' Moreland said."TSA Program Timeline: The TSA program was extended through May 26th at the request of Gov. Josh Stein.2. Financial Burden and Utility Rate Hikes in Florida:
Increased Electricity Costs: Customers of Duke Energy and Tampa Electric in Florida will face significant increases in their monthly bills to cover the costs of hurricane recovery. Duke Energy customers will see around a $32 increase (offset by a temporary $10 seasonal adjustment), and Tampa Electric customers will see around a $20 increase for 1,000 kilowatt-hours of usage.Regulator Concerns: Utility regulators expressed concerns about the rising costs for residents and the increasing frequency of devastating storms. -
Impending Winter Storms - Midwest and Northeast (February 2025)
Executive Summary:
The Midwest and Northeast of the United States are bracing for a series of five winter storms expected to deliver significant snowfall and ice over a two-week period starting in early February 2025. These storms, driven by a persistent jet stream, could bring more snow than the regions have experienced in the past two winters combined, potentially leading to hazardous travel conditions, school closures, and power outages. The Washington Post article notes that "Snowfall has been below average so far this season across many parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. That may not be the case in a week from now."
Key Themes and Forecast Details:
Jet Stream Influence: The jet stream is identified as the primary driver of these storms. Both sources mention the jet stream's role in funneling storms across the northern US. CNN states: "The storms are being driven by the jet stream, essentially a river of air in the atmosphere that storms flow through." and the Washington Post notes that "A powerful jet stream, or ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere upon which storms track, will fuel several winter storms next week.".Significant Snowfall Potential: The articles forecast substantial snowfall, with some areas potentially receiving double-digit snowfall amounts in a single storm. The CNN article states that "Boston could be buried by a foot of snow Saturday night and Sunday, which would be more snow than fell all of last winter."Icing Concerns: In addition to snow, freezing rain and sleet are expected, particularly south of Interstate 80, creating hazardous conditions. The Washington Post states "Freezing rain and sleet will be a big part of the weekend storm, especially south of Interstate 80 from Ohio through New Jersey, from late Saturday into early Sunday." The CNN article notes "A mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow will spread over Pennsylvania by Saturday evening. The same messy mix will spread through New Jersey, New York City and Long Island shortly after."Affected Areas:Snow: A corridor from central Minnesota through northern Michigan, central portions of New York, southern Maine, and southern New England (including Boston) is expected to receive significant snowfall. -
Alt National Park Service & the Political Climate
Date: Feb 7, 2024
Subject: Emergence and Activities of the Alt National Park Service in a Politically Charged Environment
Executive Summary:
Radiology mattersexamines the Alt National Park Service (AltNPS), focusing on its origins, motivations, activities, and the broader political context in which it operates. The AltNPS, initially formed in 2017 in response to perceived threats to environmental protection under the Trump administration, has re-emerged amidst concerns about government actions, particularly those involving Elon Musk and his team's influence within federal agencies. The group acts as a "resistance" movement, aiming to protect the environment, public lands, and government employees from what it views as detrimental policies and actions.
Key Themes and Ideas:
Origins and Purpose:The AltNPS emerged in 2017 following the election of Donald Trump, driven by concerns over potential environmental deregulation and suppression of scientific information. As described on their Facebook page, they are "the official 'resistance' team of U.S. National Park Service," with a mission "to stand up for the National Park Service to help protect and preserve the environment for present and future generations."The group initially utilized social media, particularly Twitter, to disseminate information and express their concerns, sometimes in defiance of official gag orders or restrictions on government communications.Concerns Regarding Government Actions and Influence:A central theme is the AltNPS's opposition to actions taken by the Trump administration and, specifically, the influence of Elon Musk and his staff within federal agencies. The AltNPS Facebook posts from early 2025 detail a range of concerns, including:Access to sensitive data: "Elon Musk now has access to your Social Security number. The worldâs richest man has gained access to the confidential personal information of every taxpayer in the United States."Potential misuse of power: "An Elon Musk staffer misused the U.S. Marshals Service by falsely invoking their authority to intimidate."Workforce reductions and restructuring: "The Trump administration plans to reduce the USAID workforce from over 10,000 to around 290 positions."Rollbacks of environmental protections: "Trump announced that he plans to sign an executive order next week to end the promotion of paper straws as an alternative to plastic ones. So much for the sea turtles."Restrictions on federal employees and their communications: "Memos have been distributed to instill fear, warning federal employees that layoffs will begin if not enough people accept Elonâs buyout. This no longer feels 'voluntary'."Methods of Resistance and Advocacy:Information Dissemination: The AltNPS uses social media platforms to share information about government actions, potential threats to the environment, and resources for federal employees. They describe themselves as "a group of tree-huggers dedicated to keeping Americans informed."Call to Action: The AltNPS encourages the public to contact elected officials, spread awareness, and support their cause. "Please continue to call and spread the word." -
Todayâs Meteorology Matters podcast is based on an article from The Atlantic on how Hitler dismantled democracy in Germany except youâll notice one tiny detail has been changed. Donald Trumpâs name has been substituted for Adolf Hitlerâs.
How Hitler Dismantled a Democracy in 53 Days
Source: "How Hitler Dismantled a Democracy in 53 Days" by Timothy W. Ryback, The Atlantic (January 8, 2025)
Executive Summary:
This article details the rapid and calculated manner in which Adolf Hitler, after becoming Chancellor of Germany on January 30, 1933, systematically dismantled the Weimar Republic's democratic structures and processes. The article highlights Hitler's exploitation of the existing constitution and political vulnerabilities to consolidate power and establish an authoritarian regime within a remarkably short timeframe (53 days). It emphasizes that this process was not inevitable but rather a result of political contingency and strategic exploitation of weaknesses in the Weimar system.
Main Themes and Key Ideas:
Exploitation of Legal Loopholes: Hitler recognized and exploited the "potential weakness inherent in every formal form of law" (Hans Frank). He used the Weimar Constitution itself as a tool to subvert democracy, ironically fulfilling a "legality oath" he took before the Constitutional Court.Obstruction and Paralysis: Prior to becoming Chancellor, Hitler spent years undermining the political system by "co-opting or crushing right-wing competitors and paralyzing legislative processes."Key Quotes:
"Hitler set about destroying a constitutional republic through constitutional means.""Hitler knew firsthand how easily an ambitious political agenda could be scuttled.""37 percent represents 75 percent of 51 percent," (Hitler's flawed logic regarding his party's power.)âThe FĂŒhrer was a man who was possible in Germany only at that very moment,â (Hans Frank)"After a thirteen-year struggle the National Socialist movement has succeeded in breaking through into the government, but the struggle to win the German nation is only beginning," (Hitler after the elections)."In this historic hour, we German Social Democrats solemnly pledge ourselves to the principles of humanity and justice, of freedom and socialism," (Otto Wels's defiant speech)."No enabling act gives you the power to destroy ideas that are eternal and indestructible," (Otto Wels).âOn the basis of this law the Hitler Cabinet can reconstruct the entire system of government as it eliminates practically all constitutional restraints.â (U.S. Ambassador Frederic Sackett)Implications:
The article serves as a cautionary tale about the fragility of democratic institutions and the dangers of political extremism. It underscores the importance of vigilance in protecting constitutional guardrails and resisting attempts to exploit legal processes for authoritarian ends. It also highlights the role of individual actors and the potential for seemingly minor decisions to have profound historical consequences.
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National Weatherperson's Day: This day, observed on February 5th, commemorates the birth of John Jeffries (1744/1745-1819), a physician and one of Americaâs first weather observers, who began daily measurements in Boston in 1774 and who took the first balloon observation in 1784. The day recognizes the men and women who provide weather, water, and climate services. It was created in the 1990âs. Meteorology Matters provides an overview of the meteorology field, its various facets, and related professions. We cover career paths, educational requirements, job outlook, demographics, and the historical context of weather observation. It highlights the diversity within the field and the numerous roles professionals play in public safety, scientific advancement, and commercial sectors on this National Weatherpersonâs Day in the USA
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Florida Heat and Worker Safety
Key Themes:
Extreme Heat as a Growing Threat:Florida is experiencing increasingly severe and frequent heat waves, exacerbated by climate change and warming oceans.The heat index, which factors in both temperature and humidity, is reaching dangerous levels. South Florida is particularly hard hit, experiencing a much greater number of days with heat indexes above 105F than in previous years."The climate crisis is making Florida hotter â and more humid." ("3 heat.pdf")Data shows record-breaking temperatures across Florida, with 2023 having some of the hottest months on record, and 2024 seeing record April and May temperatures."Last year tied as the hottest ever, with July and August 2023 both breaking monthly records. So far this year, Florida has recorded its hottest ever April and May..." ("3 heat.pdf")Vulnerable Outdoor Workers:A significant portion of Florida's workforce is exposed to extreme heat while working outdoors. Estimates range from 25% to 26.2% of the workforce. This includes landscaping, construction, agricultural, and amusement park workers."A new report suggests one in four Floridians who work outdoors are vulnerable to extreme heat, according to the Florida Policy Institute (FPI)." ("3 hot.pdf")Many of these workers are low-wage, migrant workers from Mexico, Central America, Cuba and Haiti, with less access to information and resources."Florida has an estimated 1.8 million outdoor workers, predominantly migrants, who are exposed to increasingly brutal weather conditions..." ("3 heat.pdf")"The heat makes you feel like youâre suffocating," said Raimundo Perdigon, 58, from Cuba, recalling a recent job building an outdoor bathroom. ("3 heat.pdf")Indigenous Guatemalan workers, some of whom speak little English or Spanish, are particularly vulnerable due to difficulty accessing health information and advice. -
Impending Eruption of Axial Seamount Underwater Volcano
Summary:
Meteorology Matters looks at the Axial Seamount, an underwater volcano located approximately 300 miles off the coast of Oregon, is highly likely to erupt sometime in 2025. This prediction is based on decades of monitoring, a pattern of regular eruptions, and real-time data indicating the volcano is inflating as magma accumulates. While this eruption poses no direct threat to human lives due to its depth and distance from shore, it provides a unique research opportunity to improve volcanic forecasting and understand undersea volcanic processes.
Key Themes and Findings:
Imminent Eruption:Multiple sources agree that the Axial Seamount is expected to erupt in 2025.William Chadwick, a geologist at the University of Oregon and a key researcher studying the seamount, is quoted in multiple articles stating the eruption is likely this year: "A year ago, Axial seemed to be taking a nap but now itâs waking up and we think itâs likely to erupt before the end of 2025," and "An eruption does not seem imminent, but it canât do this forever,âThe volcano's behavior (inflation and increased seismicity) mirrors patterns observed before previous eruptions in 1998, 2011, and 2015.Unique Monitoring Capabilities:The Axial Seamount is described as "the most active submarine volcano in the northeast Pacific" and "the most well-instrumented submarine volcano on the planet."It is monitored by a network of instruments and cables extending from the coast, providing real-time data. This includes seismometers, bottom pressure recorders, and the "Regional Cabled Array" which has more than 140 instruments.This extensive monitoring allows researchers to closely track the volcano's activity: "And so we actually have real time data from Axial Seamount, which is pretty unusual." - William ChadwickScientists are able to track the volcano's inflation, a key indicator of an impending eruption: "The volcano has been inflating 'like a balloon' as molten rock accumulates within."Predictable Eruption Pattern:The Axial Seamount exhibits a "pretty repeatable pattern from one eruption to the next" according to Chadwick.Eruptions occur when the volcano reaches a specific level of inflation, making predictions feasible.Scientists successfully predicted the 2015 eruption based on these patterns. "The 2015 swelling allowed Chadwick...to predict that yearâs eruption â âour best forecasting success,â he says."Non-Threatening to Humans:The volcano is approximately 300 miles off the Oregon coast and a mile underwater, meaning that any eruption poses no threat to people or boats on the surface: "If you were on a boat above the volcano, you wouldn't know at all that it had erupted." - Scott Nooner.Eruptions are "controlled" and are not expected to generate tsunamis. "The good news is that because the top of the volcano is still 4,500 feet below the oceanâs surface, it poses no danger to people."The type of eruption, forming pillow lava, is not explosive and results in oozing lava flow. -
Florida flooding four months after hurricane Milton - February 2, 2025
Meteorology Matters summarizes the ongoing challenges faced by communities in Florida following Hurricanes Helene and Milton in October 2024. While some recovery efforts have been completed, many areas, particularly in Pasco County and on Anna Maria Island, continue to grapple with severe flooding, economic strain, and bureaucratic hurdles. The long-term implications include potential population shifts and escalating insurance costs.
Key Themes and Findings:
Devastating Flooding and Prolonged Recovery:Hurricane Milton, which hit October 9-10, brought significant rainfall (over 15 inches in some areas like Tampa to Daytona Beach) leading to severe flooding, especially in the interior of Florida due to its flat geography."Hurricane Milton, which struck on October 9-10, plunged parts of Florida, from Tampa to Daytona Beach, under more than 15 inches of rain."The Withlacoochee River reached its third-highest crest on record (19.68 feet) ten days after the storm.Flood warnings in areas like Ridge Manor remained active for 34 consecutive days, highlighting the persistent nature of the flooding.Some areas of Pasco County, specifically in Dade City and near Zephyrhills, remain flooded 4 months after the storms.Properties in neighborhoods like Hickory Hills in Dade City are still partially underwater, with some residents needing to drive through neighborsâ yards or use boats to access their homes."Dozens of properties in the Hickory Hills neighborhood of Dade City remain partially underwater, including Victor Lemus', who has to drive through a neighbor's yard to access the road."Struggling Communities and Logistical Challenges:Communities are facing significant logistical issues, with residents resorting to using airboats to reach polling places during the 2024 presidential election."Overwhelmed by such water levels, residents found themselves not just facing flooded homes but also desperate logistical challenges to vote; many opted for airboat rides to cast their ballots during the 2024 presidential election."The lack of accessibility to flooded properties in Pasco County raises concerns about medical emergencies and fire hazards, with residents expressing worries about first responders being unable to reach them.Slow and Inadequate Recovery Efforts:Recovery efforts for local governments and public utilities have been slow.State-owned pumps initially used to remove water in Pasco County were redeployed in December, leaving residents to deal with the flooding on their own."According to a Pasco County spokesperson, state-owned pumps were used to help remove water from these areas following Hurricanes Helene and Milton... Those pumps, however, were 're-deployed' elsewhere in December..."Pasco County authorities cite that they cannot pump water from private property, leaving residents feeling abandoned and blaming the county and FEMA for not providing needed assistance."the flooding is on private property, and the county is not able to pump water from private property.""They told FOX 13 they haven't been able to get any assistance from FEMA, or from their local and state elected officials."Residents in Pasco County also believe infrastructure and stormwater management have not kept pace with growth which has exacerbated the flooding issue."They said infrastructure in the area hasnât kept up with explosive growth, and stormwater from elsewhere is ending up trapped there with nowhere to go." -
Oklahoma Senate Bill 158 - Weather Tracker Licensure
Subject: Analysis of Senate Bill 158, concerning the regulation and licensure of professional severe weather trackers in Oklahoma.
Sources:
KFOR News Article: "Bill targets storm chasers with licensure requirements" (referred to as "KFOR Article")Senate Bill 158 Text (referred to as "SB 158")1. Overview
Senate Bill 158 (SB 158), authored by Senator Mark Mann, aims to create a regulatory framework for "professional severe weather trackers" in Oklahoma. The bill, if passed, would establish a licensing process, set requirements for those who track severe weather, and grant certain privileges to licensed trackers, including the ability to operate with emergency vehicle status during significant weather events. The stated goal is to enhance safety by distinguishing professional trackers from amateur enthusiasts, and allow licensed storm trackers to act as emergency responders.
2. Key Provisions of SB 158
Licensing Requirement: The bill mandates that individuals operating as "professional severe weather trackers" be licensed by Service Oklahoma.Definition of "Professional Severe Weather Tracker": SB 158 defines a "professional severe weather tracker" as an individual or company hired by a qualified media outlet or affiliated with a research program at a qualified institution of higher education. They must be employed or contracted with these organizations. ("Professional severe weather trackerâ means a licensed individual or company hired or contracted with by a qualified media outlet or affiliated with a research program at a qualified institution of higher education;")Qualified Media Outlet: A qualified media outlet is defined as a television station licensed by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) that broadcasts via various platforms (broadcast, cable, streaming). ("Qualified media outletâ means a television station licensed by the Federal Communications Commission for the broadcast or transmission of television programming via broadcast, cable, streaming, or other platforms as recognized by the Federal Communications Commission;")Qualified Institution of Higher Education: A qualified institution is defined as any college or university regulated by the Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education that offers a course or program in meteorology. ("Qualified institution of higher educationâ means any college or university regulated by the Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education that offers a course or program in meteorology;")Significant Weather Event: The bill defines significant weather events that trigger the special privileges of a licensed tracker, including:Enhanced, moderate, or high-risk weather days by the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center.Any tornado or severe thunderstorm watch or warning issued by the National Weather Service or the chief meteorologist of a qualified media outlet.Winter weather advisories, warnings or watches, and red flag fire warnings. ("Significant weather eventâ means: a. a day of enhanced, moderate, or high risk conditions⊠b. any tornado or severe thunderstorm watch⊠c. any storm⊠d. a blizzard warningâŠe. a red flag fire warningâŠf. a flash flood warning or flood warning")Licensing Requirements: To obtain a license, individuals must:Pass a criminal background check.Supply a letter of endorsement from a chief meteorologist of a qualified media outlet, or a designated individual from an institution of higher education, attesting to the applicant's knowledge and experience⊠-
NOAA Email Chaos, Weather Funding Cuts & Stopping Science
Date: Jan 30-31st 2025
A newly implemented, centralized email system for federal employees, spearheaded by the Trump administration, experienced a significant security breach on or around January 30, 2025. This breach allowed external actors to send abusive and inappropriate messages to approximately 13,000 employees at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This incident exposed serious vulnerabilities within the new system, raising concerns about its security, management, and the broader implications for federal communications. Furthermore, it highlighted controversial changes at the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), which was reportedly responsible for the systemâs implementation.
Key Themes and Findings:
System Vulnerability and Inadequate Security:The new email system, designed to reach all 2.3 million federal employees from a single address, was "cobbled together" rapidly, lacking basic security measures or screening protocols. As one NOAA employee stated, âGoes to show you how fast this [new comms system] was cobbled together â no security or screening on this address.âAbusive and Inappropriate Content:The 13,000 NOAA employees received a barrage of offensive emails, including:An email with the subject "Resign," containing the message: "Arenât you tired of working for a complete c*nt?âAn âImportant Weather Alertâ about a â99% chance of shit showersâ over the next four years.Crude and inflammatory messages critical of President Donald Trump and Elon Musk.Spam subscription confirmation for "Scientology Today."Links to a personal newsletter from journalist Ken Klippenstein.These messages were described as âextremely offensive,â and âvulgar.âControversial Changes at OPM:The email system was implemented by a new team at the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), which reportedly replaced experienced staff with "lackeys from his previous ventures." This reportedly included young, inexperienced individuals from Elon Musk's previous ventures (e.g. xAI, Neuralink, and Peter Thielâs firms).The OPMâs former Chief Information Officer, Melvin Brown II, was reportedly fired for refusing to implement the new email system.The new email system is reportedly part of a wider plan for the Trump administration to gather information on government employees and implement a âhostile takeoverâ of the OPM.The OPM's new system is the subject of a class-action lawsuit alleging violations of Bush-era cyber security standards.Immediate Response and Internal Review:NOAA Deputy Director of Communications Scott Smullen apologized to staff and stated, âI will report it.âVice Admiral Nancy Hann, NOAA's deputy undersecretary for operations, confirmed the âcyber attack,â acknowledging the offensive emails and apparent âphishing attemptsâ. She stated, âI am sorry that you were subject to these inappropriate messages and want you to know that we take these matters very seriously.âAn investigation was launched by NOAA's Office of the Chief Information Officer (OCIO) to prevent future incidents.Quotes from Sources:
âArenât you tired of working for a complete c*nt?â (Subject line of an email sent to NOAA employees)âGoes to show you how fast this [new comms system] was cobbled together â no security or screening on this address.â (NOAA employee quote) -
Climate Change Impacts on Property Taxes and Home Insurance
Impact on Property Taxes:
Reassessments: Natural disasters often lead to property reassessments, temporarily lowering the value of damaged properties and thus reducing property taxes. As stated in the Yahoo article, "natural disasters usually spur property reassessments, which temporarily lower the values of damaged properties while simultaneously reducing homeownersâ taxes."Tax Rate Increases: Municipalities might raise property tax rates to offset revenue losses from damaged properties and to fund recovery efforts. The article notes, "In areas that were not affected, tax rates were increased to help offset the loss in revenue,â and, "In Los Angeles, wildfires similarly create more expensive places with taxes to meet increased funding needs."Temporary Reductions & Refunds: Some areas provide temporary property tax reductions or refunds to homeowners who have experienced significant losses due to disasters. California, for instance, offers this relief if losses are at least $10,000 of the current market value of the property.Restoration of Value: Once rebuilt, a propertyâs pre-damaged value is typically restored.Variations in Laws: Property tax relief measures vary by location, with states like New York enacting specific climate change property tax relief bills. As the Yahoo article states, New York's "Climate Change Property Tax Relief bill... provides assessment relief to property owners within eligible municipalities."Higher Rates in Disaster-Prone Areas: "Living in a disaster-prone area can affect your property taxes in several ways. They may be assessed at a higher rate because of the cost of municipal services that include emergency response, building, and maintaining flood control infrastructure." This highlights an ongoing cost for homeowners in these regions.Impact on Home Insurance:Rising Premiums: Insurance premiums are rising, particularly in high-risk areas like flood zones and regions prone to hurricanes or wildfires. The Yahoo article quotes, "insurance premiums often rise âin areas with the highest risk of natural disasters such as hurricanes or wildfires."Policy Non-Renewals: Insurance companies are increasingly dropping coverage for homeowners in disaster-prone areas. The Axios article notes that the share of home insurance policies not renewed in the US ticked up to 1.06% in 2023 from 0.8% in 2018. In Los Angeles County, the increase was more significant, from 0.86% to 1.43%.Reduced Market Appeal: Properties in flood zones may see reduced market appeal unless they have mitigation measures in place and the cost of insurance rises as a result, impacting the entire real estate market.Concerns about Uninsurability: There is growing concern that some areas could become uninsurable entirely. The Axios piece includes the quote from the outgoing Senate Budget Committee chair, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, stating that rising home non-renewals "spells trouble for property values in climate-exposed communities across the country."Climate Risk as Tangible: As noted by Jeremy Porter, "Insurance prices are often the first way that 'climate risk becomes tangible to people'."Insurers' Perspective: It is also noted that an insurer trade group argues non-renewal data is "unsuitable" for understanding climate change impacts, since it doesn't explain the reasoning for company decisions. -
Historic Gulf Coast Snowstorm - January 2025
I. Historic Gulf Coast Snowstorm:
Unprecedented Snowfall: The Gulf Coast experienced a rare and record-breaking snowstorm, with some areas seeing the heaviest snowfall in over a century. Several locations broke all-time records.Quotes:âHistoric, city-snarling snowfall â in some cases, possibly the heaviest in more than a century â was spreading on Tuesday into coastal communities from Texas toward Florida.â"The Great Southern Snowstorm of 2025 is one of the most impactful winter storms in history for the Gulf Coast, obliterating Floridaâs all-time state snowfall mark and smashing local accumulation records from middle Louisiana to western Florida."Record Snow Totals: Multiple cities experienced record snowfall, with amounts far exceeding forecasts.Examples:Pensacola, FL: 8.9 inches (all-time record, more than double the previous state record). The city of Milton, just northeast, recorded 9.8 inches, which is pending confirmation as the new state record.New Orleans, LA: 8 inches at the airport, breaking the previous record of 2.7 inches, with some areas reporting up to 11.5 inches.Mobile, AL: 7.5 inches (all-time record).Baton Rouge, LA: 6-8 inches (heaviest since 1895).Quote: ââItâs an incredible, incredible event,â said Michael Mugrage, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Mobile, Alabama, where many of the highest snowfall totals from the region were reported. âIt puts it in perspective how rare this is.âKey Factors:Polar Vortex: A strong polar vortex stretched unusually far south, bringing extremely cold air from the Arctic to the Gulf Coast.Upper Level Disturbance: An upper-level disturbance moving south from Canada helped generate lift, leading to precipitation.Dry Air: Surprisingly, very dry air aloft helped the formation of snow, as it caused saturation to occur at below-freezing temperatures.Warm Gulf Waters: Unusually warm Gulf waters may have provided a higher-than-expected source of moisture, contributing to increased precipitation amounts, but also a chaotic mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain in some areas.Impacts:Travel Disruption: Roads were closed, including stretches of I-10 in Florida.Quote: âThe storm system that brought so much snow also sank thermometers into record-breaking territory across the Deep South.âRecord Low Temperatures: The storm also brought record low temperatures to cities in the region, with some locations experiencing the coldest temperatures since the late 19th century.Recreational Activity: Locals were seen using make-shift sleds to enjoy the rare snow.Rarity:The conditions that led to this storm are exceptionally rare in the Gulf Coast region. The chance of a similar event occurring in any given winter is estimated to be around 1%. The event is comparable to the historic storm of 1895.Quote: âWith 2025 rivaling only 1895 for the historical high snowdrift on the Gulf Coast, this general kind of event might only have around a 1% of occurring in any given winter."Comparison to Historical Events: While there have been instances of snow in Florida in the past (documented as far back as the 1700s), this event was far more significant and widespread. -
Allen Media Group's Weather Strategy and Subsequent Reversal
Allen Media Group (AMG), owner of The Weather Channel and numerous local television stations across the United States, initially announced a plan to eliminate nearly all local meteorologist positions at its stations.
Viewer and Staff Backlash:
Public Outcry: The announcement was met with swift and intense backlash from viewers, who expressed concerns about the loss of local expertise and the impact on severe weather coverage. Viewers described the plan as "greedy," "ridiculous," and "damn cheap."Concerns about Public Safety: Emily Pike, a former meteorologist at WSIL-TV 3, stated, âLocal meteorologists are being replaced, which could pose serious risks, especially during severe weather events.â This speaks to a more general fear that "hubbed" weather forecasts would be insufficient during crises.Loss of Local Expertise: Viewers and some media critics argued that local meteorologists have a deeper understanding of local weather patterns, geography, and community needs, making them more effective during severe weather. As one meteorologist noted: âWe know the area. We know how to forecast for the area. We know the ins and outs of hyper-local weather.âImpact on Local News and Journalism:Loss of Localism: The decision to remove local meteorologists was seen as a blow to localism in media, removing a key aspect that draws viewers to local stations. One source noted that "cutting local meteorologists 'will reduce viewership and station app use, probably in every Allen market,' not to mention driving away advertisers."Centralization Trend: AMG's actions were part of a broader trend of media consolidation and centralization, with other station groups such as Sinclair, CBS, and Gray Media making similar cost-cutting decisions.Public Service Obligation: The action was seen by some as a dereliction of duty, since "broadcast stations carry an FCC license that requires some responsibility to operate in the public interest."AMG's Reversal and Uncertain Future:Pause on Layoffs: Due to the backlash, AMG has reportedly hit pause on its plan to lay off meteorologists and outsource coverage to The Weather Channel. As one source reports: "Allen Media Group is reportedly reversing its controversial plan to ax local meteorologists and replace them with a Weather Channel feed after facing heated backlash from loyal viewers".Stations Affected (Partial List):WJRT (Flint, MI)WSIL-TV 3 (Carterville, IL)WEVV (Evansville, IN)KWWL (Waterloo, IA)KIMT (Rochester, MN/Mason City, IA)KEZI (Eugene, OR)KDRV/KDKF (Medford, OR)KHSL/KNVN (Chico / Redding, CA)WTHI (Terre Haute, IN)WLFI (West Lafayette, IN)WFFT (Fort Wayne, IN)WAAY (Huntsville, AL)KADN (Lafayette, LA)KITV/KIKU (Honolulu, HI)WAOW (Wausau, WI)WQOW (Eau Claire, WI)WKOW (Madison, WI)WXOW (La Crosse, WI)KVOA (Tucson, AZ)WREX (Rockford, IL)WCOV (Montgomery, AL) -
A Detailed Review of Potential Trump-Era Reversals
Meteorology Matters analyzes the key environmental actions taken by the Biden administration, focusing on the potential challenges and ease with which President Trump may attempt to reverse them.
Key Themes:
Sweeping Scope: Biden's environmental agenda is characterized by its breadth and depth, impacting various sectors and aiming for long-term sustainability. This makes complete dismantling difficult.Legal and Scientific Foundation: Many of Biden's policies are rooted in robust scientific evidence and legal frameworks, making them resistant to arbitrary rollbacks.Economic and Political Considerations: While Trump champions deregulation for economic growth, some of Biden's policies enjoy industry support (like methane regulation) or face international pressure (like EV production).Key Areas of Focus and Potential for Reversal:1. Climate Change and Air Pollution
Greenhouse Gas Standards for Vehicles: Reversing these standards could be challenging due to industry investments in EV production to comply with global regulations. Difficulty: MediumGreenhouse Gas Standards for Power Plants: Trump's promise to "terminate" the power plant rule will likely face legal challenges similar to those faced during his first term. Difficulty: MediumLimits on Mercury and Air Toxics from Coal Plants: Reversing strengthened limits will likely be met with lawsuits from civil rights and environmental groups. Difficulty: MediumPhaseout of Climate Super-Pollutants (HFCs): Reversing the HFC phase-down, authorized by a bipartisan bill, would require new legislation from Congress. Difficulty: Difficult2. Drilling and Extraction
Limits on Methane from Drilling Operations: Trump may face pressure from the oil industry, which supports methane regulation, to retain this rule. Difficulty: MediumFee on Methane from Oil and Gas Facilities: Repealing these fees, authorized by the Inflation Reduction Act, would likely require new legislation. Difficulty: DifficultProtections for D1 lands in Alaska: Trump's previous attempts to revoke protections for D1 lands faced hurdles, and reversing this policy could encounter similar challenges. Difficulty: Medium3. Chemical Safety
Listing of PFAS under the Superfund law: This designation has already drawn legal challenges from industry groups and could face further legal hurdles if reversed. Difficulty: MediumRemoval of All Lead Pipes: The Safe Drinking Water Act's provisions make weakening existing health protections difficult, potentially leading to legal challenges. Difficulty: MediumComplete Ban on Asbestos: Trump's previous failures to regulate asbestos were deemed "arbitrary and capricious" by a federal court, making a reversal difficult. Difficulty: Medium4. Conservation
Expansion of National Monuments: Trump's previous downsizing of national monuments sparked legal battles. Repealing expansions faces similar resistance and potential Supreme Court involvement. Difficulty: EasyProtection of Boundary Waters: Reversing the mining ban would face opposition from conservationists and potentially impact local water quality, leading to legal challenges. Difficulty: Medium (Rating by Washington Post) -
Home Insurance Crisis in the United States
Date: January 19, 2025
Subject: Overview of the Home Insurance Crisis in the US, with a Focus on California and Florida
Summary: Meteorology Matters analyzes the escalating home insurance crisis in the US, particularly in California and Florida. The analysis highlights key themes including:
Rising Insurance Costs: Home insurance premiums are increasing at rates surpassing inflation, driven by factors like reinsurance costs, litigation expenses, and the escalating frequency and severity of climate change-related disasters.Insurance Nonrenewals and Cancellations: Insurers are increasingly dropping policies in high-risk areas, forcing homeowners to seek expensive alternatives or forgo coverage altogether.Government Intervention: States like California and Florida are grappling with legislative and regulatory solutions to address the crisis, while the federal government's attempts to gather data and intervene have faced political pushback.Consumer Impact: The crisis is leaving homeowners financially vulnerable, unable to afford coverage, and struggling to rebuild after disasters.Key Themes and Facts:
1. Rising Insurance Costs Outpacing Inflation:
Inflation and Reinsurance Costs: Insurance industry leaders cite inflation and skyrocketing reinsurance costs as primary drivers of premium increases. Brian Murphy of Brightway Insurance states, âThese catastrophic losses, coupled with the insolvency of 15 insurance companies in Florida over the past 15 years, have driven up reinsurance costs, which are then passed down to policyholders." (Source: Insurance cost increases in Florida have outpaced inflation. We asked experts why.)Litigation Expenses: Although recent reforms aimed at curbing lawsuits against insurers have shown some impact, litigation remains a significant cost driver. (Source: Insurance cost increases in Florida have outpaced inflation. We asked experts why.)2. Nonrenewals and Cancellations Leaving Homeowners Vulnerable:
Increased Nonrenewals: Nonrenewal notices have surged by almost 30% nationwide from 2018 to 2022, reaching over 620,000 annually. (Source: More homeowners lose insurance in areas hard-hit by climate disasters - The Wash.pdf)Climate Change Impact: Insurers are increasingly withdrawing from high-risk areas exposed to hurricanes, wildfires, and severe storms, forcing homeowners to turn to expensive "insurers of last resort" or forgo coverage. (Source: They lost their insurance. Then their homes burned | CNN Business.pdf)California Wildfires: State Farm, California's largest insurer, nonrenewed thousands of policies in high-risk areas, including many that were subsequently destroyed in the recent LA wildfires. This sparked public outrage and calls for increased government oversight. (Source: State Farm makes major policy change amid LA fires outrage.pdf) - Mostrar más
