Episodios
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Daniel McCormack, head of research for Macquarie Asset Management, says that heightened volatility in 2025 should make investors want to stay nimble and flexible, but he expects reasonable growth and a healthy environment. Sharing his outlook for 2025, McCormack says he expects China to begin "exporting inflation again," which could the U.S. back above a 3 percent inflation rate, which might slow down the pace of rate cuts, but it won't throw the economy into a recession. Larry Holzenthaler, portfolio manager for First Eagle Alternative Credit, gave his outlook for credit markets in 2025, noting that after avoiding default troubles when rates were rising, the picture is better now, particularly in private credit. Jennifer White discusses a J.D. Power study showing that consumers don’t think their bank will help them out in an emergency, and how banks might be more helpful than customers expect, and Chuck answers a listener question about sequence-of-return risk.
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Bob Elliott, chief investment officer for the Unlimited Funds, says investors entered 2025 with "euphoric expectations," but at a time when the market was going through a tightening, which is a set-up for the market to be flat or down for a few months. He says investors should curb their enthusiasm if they expect the market to perform as well as it has in the last two years, though he makes it clear that there are still good times to be had, just at the levels of 2023 and '24. Author Paul Podolsky discusses “The Uncomfortable Truth About Money," which is his latest book, focused on "living with uncertainty and [thinking] for yourself." Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to the banking sector for his ETF of the Week.
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Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for the Carson Group, says growing earnings and profit margins are creating a dual tailwind for the stock market, and while he cites plenty of reasons for concern — including the potential for a double-digit market decline in the first half of 2025 — he's "not scared that the bull market is over." In both his 2025 outlook — released Tuesday — and in today's Big Interview, Detrick called for double-digit market gains, inflation that comes under control and allows the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later in the year, and a change in market leadership that has him leaning into rebalancing and diversifying portfolios, with particular attention paid to financial, cyclical and industrial companies. Chip Lupo discusses a WalletHub survey which showed that more than 1 in 10 Americans blew up their credit card debt over the holiday season, and that more people are carrying debt without any plan on how to pay it off. In the Market Call, it's discount shopping in the closed-end fund aisle with Eric Boughton, chief analyst for Matisse Captial and manager of the Matisse Discounted Closed-End Fund Strategy fund.
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Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy for Global X ETFs says "Investors had better be ready for some chop" in 2024, but he thinks fundamentals are good and expanding and the market will broaden so that the economy and market pick up in areas that have not done well of late. Those conditions may create a volatile market but should help fight off a slowing pace of interest rate cuts. Helfstein sees several themes leading the way, most notably artificial intelligence — both the providers and the AI infrastructure — but also power companies, and then infrastructure investing. His take on infrastructure — particularly in the power business — aligns with that of Rob Thummel, portfolio manager of the Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Corp. (TYG) Fund, who lays out his case for the sector in the Market Call. Plus, Willie Delwiche of Hi Mount Research makes a technical case for the market to take a breather before it can get re-achieve record highs, and Chuck Bell of Consumer Reports discusses a recent federal proposal to ban the inclusion of medical debt on credit reports.
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Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy at SLC Investments, says that when there is a lot of uncertainty and geopolitical risk, the United States economy and markets benefit from the situation, even if the unrest is partially caused by the U.S. As a result, while many observers worry about what might change under the new Trump Administration, Mullarkey expects economic stability, noting that "given all the headwinds we all can think of, [the U.S.) is better fortified than any other economy right now to sustain continuous growth this year. ... The rest of the world is more at risk." David Trainer, founder and president of New Constructs, revisits Sweetgreen, which he put into the Danger Zone in 2021 and subsequently named a "zombie stock," which has bounced back significantly this year, setting it up for another fall. Plus, John Dorfman, chairman of Dorfman Value Investments brings his classic value style to the Market Call.
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Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., says that while the stock market has done well at the index level — where a few big names carried the benchmarks to big years — the fuller story has been told at a lower level, where the market has had more struggles and there have been rolling recessions in various areas of the economy without triggering a full-blown, broad-based downturn. She says those conditions will persist for at least the first half of 2025, with the market continuing to roll on if earnings remain strong; to that end, she noted that the market's current expectations — calling for 14 percent earnings growth — seem high, which should make investors cautious at least until they see forward-looking estimates. Mark Gatto, co-founder and co-chief executive officer at CION Investment Group, says that global infrastructure spending estimated at as much as $3 trillion annually worldwide is creating an asset class that can overcome political challenges and that has significant earning potential, which is why his firm recently announced plans for the new CION Grosvenor Infrastructure Fund. And in the Market Call, Jason Browne, president of Alexis Investment Partners and the Alexis Practical Tactical fund talks about ETF investing.
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Rob Arnott, chairman and founder of Research Affiliates, says that current markets resemble the dot-com markets in the narrative that everything is about to change due to technological advancements, but he notes that the dominant tech players from the year 2000 failed to beat the Standard & Poor's 500 index over the long-term future. He says that could happen again today with the artificial intelligence stocks, with the technology changing the world but the stocks having a less clear path forward. Arnott notes that the narratives have made the mega caps overvalued and the comparison to the dot-com era could continue with a market downturn, but he sees plenty of opportunities for investors who are willing to pursue deep value and small-cap strategies, as well as liquid alternatives and non-U.S. stocks to "have a decent shot at high single-digit returns" this year. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes the exchange-traded version of a classic Fidelity fund his ETF of the Week, and Rob Lutts, president and chief investment officer at Cabot Wealth Management brings his classic growth investing style to the Market Call.
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Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, foresees some slowdown in consumer activity this year — with middle-income consumers beginning to struggle — and he says that will lead to a sluggish economy with higher unemployment. He expects inflation to remain sticky, which will push the Federal Reserve to make fewer rate cuts — he says it's possible they make no rate reductions this year at all — though he does believe the economy can stave off a recession. He reviews his 10 forecasts for the year ahead in The Big Interview. But he's not the only guest gazing into the crystal ball for 2025, as Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, talks about what to expect from interest rates on everything from mortgages to savings accounts over the next 12 months. And in the Market Call, David Allen of the Octane All-Cap Value Energy ETF talks about finding under-the-radar issues in the energy sector.
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Kristy Akullian, head of iShares Investment Strategy for the Americas at BlackRock, says that "the most important thing we're watching is earnings" as an indicator for the year ahead, noting that in 2024 more of the performance came from earnings growth than from multiple expansion, particularly for the parts of the market like large-cap growth companies that had a banner year. While the stock market is still looking for interest rate cuts, Akullian says that earnings can overcome any disappointment that is likely as the Federal Reserve slows the pace of rate cuts. For the year ahead — and iShares released its outlook for 2025 today — she is expecting modest gains, no recession, and continued struggles for international markets and small-cap stocks. Kim Blanton, who writes the Squared Away blog for the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, discusses research which shows that delaying Social Security pays off for couples, but particularly for high-income families who get the best possible outcomes by being patient and who — because of their income — can afford to wait to achieve that outcome. Plus, Chuck answers questions about Morningstar and VettaFi and mutual fund research and ratings.
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Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, says that 2025 is likely to see the leaders from the last few years move sideways while the rest of the market "can get some more traction and play a little catch-up." He notes that if the market broadens out and those other companies see earnings growth, it can keep the bull market rolling and offset a slowdown in rate cuts from the Federal Reserve as the central bank responds to sticky inflation by slowing its pace of rate reductions. Scott Krase, wealth manager at Connor & Gallagher OneSource, makes his debut in the Market Call, talking about ETFs and how they particularly provide access to alternative asset classes in ways that ordinary investors can benefit from in current conditions. Chuck also reviews what he has long called his "change experiment," where he saves all of his cash below $10 bills, and how much that added up to not just in 2024 but since he started doing it in 2020.
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Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, says that 2024 proved most pundits wrong, as they forecast years that were much more modest than the 25 percent that the stock market gained, with more economic struggles and more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. His forecasts, however, proved mostly right, as he reviews 2024 in today's Big Interview. Speaking of a review of the year just finished, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — looks back at the prognostications for the closed-end fund industry that he made a year ago and how the data now shows nearly all of them to have been correct. And as for prognostications, Adam Peck, co-founder of Riverwater Partners, makes a big one in the Market Call when he says that the cycles that have favored large-caps over small stocks are now long in the tooth, which is why he is expecting small-caps to outperform over the next 15 years.
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Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, says 2025 will finish up a positive year, but it will likely be a year of single-digit gains that will be a struggle to achieve because the market is starting the year with stretched valuations and other headwinds. While he doesn't see a recession in the offing, Stovall sees other conditions making the market sluggish, ranging from the presidential cycle to the regular run of a bull market and more. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, reviews the big stories in the exchange-traded fund business from 2024 and how some of those issues will keep playing out for ETFs and investors in the new year. Plus, in the Market Call, Jeff Auxier of the Auxier Focus Fund discusses business-centric, long-term investing.
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Jim Lee, founder at StratFi, says investors can be "reasonably optimistic" about the first half of 2025, but says that by the time June rolls around "I'd start to get careful." Among the technical indicators Lee leans on is the "Kitchin Cycle," which runs 180 weeks (or three and a half years) and has a solid record over the last century, and the cycle is showing a market peak at the start of March in 2025. Less says the market has the momentum to keep rolling, but not too far past that peak in the Kitchin Cycle. Also on the show, Dana Miranda of the Healthy Rich newsletter discusses her new book, “You Don’t Need a Budget: Stop Worrying About Debt, Spend Without Shame and Manage Money with Ease,” Rita Assaf discusses the annual Financial Resolutions Study out from Fidelity, which showed a strong desire for "a year of living practically" in 2025, and Chuck discusses ways to measure the success of 2024, and how it fits into the big picture of both the market and of our personal lives.
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Whether it is making resolutions, setting goals or establishing targets, Chuck has tried every kind of plan for financial self-improvement over his decades as a personal finance journalist, and today he talks about the importance of having a system that helps you focus on making progress and how to set yourself up to end 2025 better off than you are now. Also on the show, author Steven Foerster discusses his latest book, "Trailblazers, Heroes & Crooks: Stories to Make You a Smarter Investor," and Aniket Ullal, head of ETF data and analytics at CFRA Research talks exchange-traded funds in the Market Call.
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Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, says that the real story in cryptocurrency in 2024 has not been the massive gains in Bitcoin -- which is up about 120 percent year-to-date -- but the way the business has matured, adding crypto ETFs from some of Wall Street's biggest firms. Coupled with the new administration, which is crypto-friendly, it makes Hougan more positive about his outlook for the future, which he says includes plenty of room for crypto to run higher in 2025. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors, digs into his mountain of data to divine the stories he anticipates to be central to the closed-end fund landscape in the new year, and also delivers the names of five funds that he thinks are poised for breakout performances. Plus, financial adviser Patti Brennan helps answer the big question most investors want to know for the new year and beyond, as she discusses her new book, “Am I Going to Be Okay? Timely Intelligence, Actionable Ideas, Answers to the Questions that Really Matter.”
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Teralyn Pilgrim, author of "No Scrap Left Behind: My Life Without Food Waste," says that Americans are wasting significant dollars each month, simply with how they buy and use their groceries. She's not preaching radical lifestyle change as much is simply trying to plan and use food purchases efficiently to reduce or eliminate food waste. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, reviews the year that was for ETFs; Kevin Roth, head of research for the CFP Board of Standards discusses the group's annual Debt and New Year's Resolution Report, which clearly shows that finances play a big role in New Year's resolutions. Plus,Sam Fleming, co-founder / chief technology officer at Moat Metrics, brings his firm's methods into focus in the Money Life Market Call.
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Avi Gilburt, founder of Elliott Wave Trader, says the market is in the final throes of a bull market that has been in place for nearly a century, noting that while there may be one more high or buying opportunity before things are exhausted, he sees the market turning in the next few months, noting that the Standard & Poor's 500 decisively breaking the 5400 support level would be a sign that a bear market has begun. Then, Daniel Crosby, host of the Standard Deviations Podcast, discusses his new book, "The Soul of Wealth: 50 reflections on money and meaning;" After that, Allison Hadley talks about a new CardRates.com study showing that nearly half of Americans expect to return 1-3 gifts this holiday season. And in the Market Call, Scott Martindale, chief executive at Sabrient Systems, talks about picking "high performance stock portfolios," using the methods of Sabrient's founder, David Brown, who recently released a book on building a portfolio based on high-octane stocks.
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Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Financial Services Group, says investors who are worried about the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates as much as previously expected are missing the idea that it's a sign of a solid backdrop for economic growth. She notes that the market and investors "crave the sugar high from more policy accommodations," and are overlooking the potential for the market to move forward in 2025. "We're not going to put up the same kind of returns we did in the last two years," Agati says, "but I think the market can grow at a pace that aligns with earnings growth;" she says earnings could grow at a pace of 10 to 15 percent year over year. Financial adviser Harmon Kong, discusses his new book, "Values Over Valuables: Daring to Live the Life Money Can't Buy" and — speaking of what money can't buy — Melissa Stephenson discusses a Solitaire Bliss study which showed that many Americans are unable to afford travel and time off, making finances a big part of why many Americans will celebrate the holidays alone this year. Plus, Cynthia McLaughlin, investment editor at AAII — lead editor at VMQ Stocks — talks about value, momentum and quality investing in the Money Life Market Call.
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Mary Ellen Stanek, chief investment officer at Baird Advisors — president of the Baird Funds — says that the need to slow interest rate cuts has been building for a while, but that it's a sign of a strong economy and it's good for bond investors, without taking all of the starch out of the stock market. She says this week's news from the Federal Reserve about slowing cuts doesn't change Baird's forecast for 2025, noting that they expected good values in bonds through the new year and that those yields only got better with the latest announcement from the central bank. Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Financial Services Group, discusses the wild rate of inflation seen in the firm's 41st annual Christmas Price Index, which this year showed that the cost of buying your true love the gifts from the 12 Days of Christmas would set you back nearly $50,000. Bryan Piccirillo discusses an Edward Jones survey which showed that 81 percent of Americans are confident in their ability to keep their financial resolutions — the big ones being building a savings account, paying off credit card debt and increasing income — despite the terrible success rate that resolutions normally have. Plus, Ken Burdon, a partner in the registered funds practice at Simpson Thacher and Bartlett, discusses how the return of President Donald Trump might benefit closed-end funds.
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Frank Holmes, chief investment officer at U.S. Global Investors, sees the market as being due for a big correction after an "amazing move" over the last two years, but he also sees the market beginning a new era of capital innovation and creativity that will help to push the market back to new heights over the next few years. He notes that artificial intelligence will keep leading the way higher, though he says he typically prefers the AI-adjacent companies to the direct players in the space. He also discusses gold, crypto and more in a wide-ranging Big Interview. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to double down on the winners of the Nasdaq Composite with his pick for ETF of the Week, and Peter Schneider, president of Primerica, discusses the firm's latest Financial Security Monitor, which showed that recent gains in purchasing power don't have middle-income families feeling any better about their personal finances. In the Market Call, Ryan Jacob, chief investment officer of the Jacob Funds, talks technology stocks and where the next round of AI winners might come from.
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