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It's Season Two, Episode Ten and Greg reviews the dramatic shift in the monetary policy narrative from the Federal Reserve this past week, away from "fighting inflation" to "protecting the economy", following yet another in a string of EXCEPTIONALLY WEAK economic data, culminating in a nightmarish Employment Situation Report on Friday from the BLS.
Greg dissects the data, not only in the US, but also in China, who published equally WEAK macro-economic in the last two weeks, as the two largest economies on the planet are suddenly in a downward race towards a "recession".
As such markets have reacted precisely as Greg has been expecting since the first week of July, and dating back to late-March/early-April when he stated that by the August-October period the market would suffer from an "economic reality check". Bonds prices SOARED, boosting his Podcast picks in the SHY Short-Term Treasury Bond ETF, the MBB Mortgage Bond ETF and the XLE Real-Estate ETF, all of which rallied last week in the face of a deep decline in the indexes.
The reality check Greg has expected became more of an epiphany, as the market is realizing what Greg talked about in Episode Nine in mid-July, that the Fed and other global Central Banks have fallen "behind the policy curve" and need to act more aggressively amid a DEFLATION in economic activity. Greg has discussed that deflation since May, highlighting the crash in Home Building, a vicious contraction in the Mortgage market, a plunge in Home Sales, a Consumer who is being choked by continued, sticky, price inflation, and now a Service Sector into a mini-melt-down, and a Labor market that has turned to the downside, with 1.3 million more people unemployed in July, versus July of last year.
What is next for the markets? Greg ponders that question too.
And finally, Greg examines a pertinent lesson to be learned from a Market Wizard, as he continues his review of (his former colleague, and boss) Jack Schwager's must-read classic book, "Market Wizards". This week Greg "talks to" legendary Commodity-Currency trader Bruce Kovner of the famed "Caxton Corporation" (formerly a client of Greg's, to be fully transparent.)Support the show
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In Episode 9, Greg introduces his new Three Podcast Special Series, "interviews" with a handful of the greatest money managers/traders of all-time, thanks to his colleague of many years, the legendary Jack Schwager, author of the must-read and top-ten all-time financial market book, "Market Wizards".
Yes, Greg has received permission from Jack to share excerpts from this classic book, an abundance of real world blood, sweat and tears lessons from the greatest of all time, several of whom Greg has worked with or for during his long-tenured career. Of course, Greg's color commentary is priceless unto itself, given his status as a tenacious trader and money manager with four decades of hands-on experience.
And there's more, as Greg shares his current macro-monetary view on the latest US economic data, Fed policy, key comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the volatile price action in US stock indexes at the end of the week...and...a preview of his new MASSIVE Special Report on the BRICS currency and its implications for the US Dollar, and most specifically, for Gold and Silver sector, replete with an overview of his top ranked bullish trends among the individual mining shares.
Listen for details on how to get a copy of this landmark report, at the end of today's Podcast.Support the show
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There was a mind-numbing Presidential debate this week on national TV, but there is NO "debating" the facts:
Fact -- the US consumer is cocooning, cutting back discretionary spending amid a depletion of savings, maxed-out credit cards, and "real" wages that barely keep pace with (still high) inflation. "Real" (inflation adjusted, in dollar terms) Retail Sales have been NEGATIVE for five consecutive months, in 19 of the last 20 months, and in 24 of the last 27 months. That is a FACT.
Fact -- the US housing market is CRUMBLING, as New and Existing Home Sales PLUNGE and violate multi-decade uptrend lines as prices hit new record highs and mortgage rates remain high. Moreover, Sales crash while Starts, Permits and Completions all are plummeting and reaching recession-like levels, setting up the next great home price inflation when the Fed does eventually cut rates.
Fact -- excluding the 2Q of 2020 and $3.2 trillion in COVID relief, Joe Biden has created more debt than ANY other President, BY a factor of +50%, and he still has three more quarters to continue his policy of using taxpayer money to try and buy this election. Oh, and as of the end-1Q Public Debt hit another record high of $35.586 trillion, up by +$6.839 trillion since Biden took office.
Fact -- inflation remains HIGH, and is set to re-accelerate to the UPSIDE, after posting a Gasoline price decline induced unchanged reading for the month of May. Over half of the (16) major US cities still post a year-year CPI rate of +4%, or higher.
Greg discusses all of the above, and offers specific investment strategy thoughts on Energy, Crude Oil in particular, the high-flying Information-Technology shares, the Communication Services sector, the XLRE Real Estate ETF, and the Mortgage Backed Securities market, in today's Money, Markets & New Age Investing podcast.
And, for the charts mentioned within, or for any other information pertaining to the topics discussed in this podcast, please feel free to email directly [email protected]Support the show
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First, don't miss the offer of a FREE Chart Book that accompanies this Episode, with dozens of cool charts on Consumer Credit, Delinquencies, Household Finances, Inflation, Retail Sales, and, ALL the markets we are currently involved with, Financials, Utilities, Consumer Staples and Utilities along with the US Dollar, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Copper, Base Metals, Uranium, Natural Gas, Bitcoin, Ethereum and more! Email us at [email protected] to request this FREE Chart Book.
As for "Powell Taps Out", Greg notes that at the May FOMC meeting, as he did in March, Jerome Powell offered subtle yet significant "signals" that the Fed has no interest in raising rates again, and that eventually there will be rate cuts. But nuance speaks more loudly, as the Fed is increasingly signaling that they are willing to acquiesce to higher general rates of inflation, and inflation expectations, as long as the labor market remains relatively "tight" and the Consumer continues to spend.
But the latter point is coming under attack, even as Powell's "downshift" in the policy narrative is causing ALL asset prices to appreciate, primarily because as US interest rates fall, again, the US-EU (German) Rate Spreads are narrowing, among others, meaning a lower premium is being paid to holders of Dollars, versus other currencies. A lower US Dollar is bullish for stocks, but in times of inflation a lower USD is MORE bullish for commodities, especially Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum) and commodities in short supply (Copper, Cocoa, Coffee, Wheat, Energy). Indeed, increasingly hard assets are outperforming paper assets, specifically over the last two weeks since our last podcast.
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The S+P 500 has risen by +50.8% since the October 2022 low. The XLK S+P Information-Technology ETF has risen by +88.0% since the October 2022 low. And since just last October the NASDAQ-100 Index has risen by +31.2% .
The last six-months of this massive bull move in US stocks has been driven by three themes:
· Expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2024
· AI and chip stocks
· The perception that the Consumer is "strong"
Two of these themes have IMPLODED, and the other has run its near-term course, leaving the US stock market VERY VULNERABLE to profit-taking and an economic-reality-check sell-off. Get the inside scoop and prepare to take some "protective" and "defensive" moves.Support the show
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Twenty-two global Central Banks held meetings this past week to decide what, if any, changes they would make to their monetary policy stance. More than one-third of those Central Banks (8) voted to CUT their official short-term Policy Rate, TWICE as many as voted to raise rates (4), while 10 of 22 left policy unchanged.
Of those Central Banks that left rates unchanged, the majority of them communicated belief that they would be cutting rates this summer or fall, as global monetary officialdom is starting to ease policy before inflation actually declines to their target rate, thereby "acquiescing" to higher general rates of inflation, via higher lows to be set in year over year inflation rates.
Greg discusses all of this and then some, particularly as it relates to the US FOMC and how their move this week to prepare markets for EASING of "Quantitative Tightening" is the first step towards a full-blown policy reversal, which in turn is supporting asset prices, specifically stock indexes and commodity markets, like Energy. Listen to find out which specific markets to which Greg is allocating his client's money.Support the show
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You have heard me warning about a coming crisis in US Commercial Real-Estate and how it would link to Small Banks, not only here in the US, but around the world. Moreover, I warned in December about Small Bank Balance Sheets, and cited that as the likely REASON WHY the Fed abandoned their hawkish rhetoric at the year-end meeting.
You have heard me warning about a coming Consumer credit problem, particularly as it relates to out of control borrowing via Credit Cards, and how this would link to the global economy in a way that would force the "dovish" hands of Central Banks, particularly the US Fed.
Please welcome to the stage that infamous pirate..."Captain Crunch", here to lead us into the next big macro-economic phase, a Credit Crunch and Consumer Cocoon, here in the US, in the UK and across much of Europe.
In today's episode Greg will detail the data, explain the dynamic, explore the possible macro-scenarios, and talk end-game as it relates to where specifically to invest your money (including Info-Tech, Healthcare, Uranium, Food Commodities and Bitcoin or Ethereum) in order to stay out of harm's way, and out of the reach of...Captain Crunch!Support the show
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In Episode #3 of Season Two Greg offers an in depth look at three countries which reflect the three primary and dominant macro-economic "backdrops" - Stagflation, Inflation and Deflation.
Each of these locations offer crystal clear evidence within the data and the market positioning and thus gives us clues as to how these scenarios may emerge in other countries, including the Anglo-nations (AKA USA, United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia).
Subsequently we can use these three examples to provide a roadmap to aid in deploying risk capital, depending on which of the three primary macro-economic themes becomes dominant.
Greg also digs into the latest US macro-data, and more importantly offers his thoughts on investment "themes" for 2024, focusing on global equity markets, US industry-sectors, and commodities, including Gold, Uranium, and Ethereum-Bitcoin.
Moreover, if you wish to receive a FREE copy of Greg's "Gold Guru 2024 Year-Ahead Outlook Special" (as he offers at the end of today's episode) shoot us an email at "[email protected]"Support the show
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What Does the FOMC Know, That the Markets Don't?
Alternative Title: "Jerome Powell goes Mandelbaum on the Market!"
Indeed, Jerome Powell and the FOMC stunned markets last week as the US Central Bank did NOT verbally "protest" the uber-dovish Fed Funds Rates "priced into" the futures market for end-2024 (roughly 4.50%, down from 5.00% in October), but rather went DEEPER and MORE DOVISH, with projections that put the FF Policy Rate BELOW 4% by the end of next year.The Fed went "Mandelbaum" on the markets..."taking it up a notch", like the famed supporting character in the US sitcom "Seinfeld", an 80-year-old workout guru and Jerry's personal trainer Izzy Mandelbaum.
But WHY?
With inflation at 3% to 4%, the 5.5% FF Policy Rate is "sufficiently restrictive", and thus right where they want it to be. Moreover, inflation remains sticky in many staples and embedded in housing and services. So WHY the DRAMATIC and abrupt 180-degree about-face in monetary policy?
Does the Fed know something the markets don't?
Perhaps, The Fed is moving to protect something other than the economy...maybe there is an issue with credit conditions and the BANKS?
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What began as the smallest of dovish comments among a broad range of hawkish “Fedspeak” from Chairman Powell in his post-FOMC press conference earlier this month, became a rallying cry for many market participants wanting to celebrate their belief that Fed is positioning itself to REFILL the proverbial monetary "punch bowl“…
...and...that the risk-on PARTY has started again, after eighteen months of inflation-induced sobriety.
Already the forward short-term interest rate contracts in the EU, UK, and US, are "pricing-in" CUTS in Policy Rates next year. In the US there is now a chance, small as it may be, that the Fed will cut rates in March. Naturally, this is ludicrous. In fact, the Fed might view the market's thirst for the punch bowl to be refilled as RISK to their fight to tame inflation. The market itself could be the risk point that keeps the Fed tighter, longer, at least until the economy cracks wide open, the odds of which are rising dramatically given the recent macro-data deluge (CPI, Retail Sales, NY Fed).
Plowing back into US equities may not be the optimum play here. The Fed IS likely done hiking, but the focus around the world is NOT on the Fed, as MANY global Central Banks are already cutting rates and easing monetary policy, many of them in Emerging Markets. In terms of investment there are several favorable markets, all are commodity and natural resource producer/exporters who have a trade relationship with China and a currency that has stabilized, and/or broken out to the upside versus the USD.
So rather than be passive and indexed to the US stock market. I would rather focus on non-USD currencies, specific global Bond markets, Emerging market stock indexes, Commodities...and...the Real Estate sector!
Indeed, I ask, could Real Estate be THE hottest "sector" in 2024? The answer could very well be a resounding YES!
Listen to Episode One of Season Two to learn why I say all this, with the knowledge that ALL of the above alternatives to the US stock market are outperforming the US S+P 500 Index right now, and all of them stand to benefit if the Fed does in fact lighten the pressure on the monetary brakes, “Fedspeak” wise.Support the show
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I asked rhetorically in a research piece I wrote last week...is Jerome Powell a "con man"?
Of course the answer is a resounding NO. Jay Powell has talked the talk and then walked the walk. He has told us what he thinks, he has told us what he will do, and then he does it, ever since 2018 and the publication of eleven Fed White Papers defining the "new monetary paradigm", which proposed to let inflation rise to whatever level it wanted to without "tolerance bands", to rise high enough to lift the eight-year average rate above 2%, and then if needed apply the Volcker playbook with draconian monetary tightening to bring inflation back down to their target.
I say, "con man" not because Powell has tried to "play us". Rather, he has been fully transparent. But now that is kind of the problem, because he has NO "confidence" that the Fed has tightened policy to a degree where it IS "restrictive enough to finish the job". The word CONFIDENCE was used in a negative way repeatedly during Powell’s most recent post-FOMC meeting press conference. Thus, my play on words, and "con man".And rather than a dovish stance, he in fact clearly stated that IF the economy continued to grow at a rate above trend, it "could cause the Fed to tighten further".
But what if the economy is already IN a recession...AND...inflation rises again?And if "stagflation" becomes the dominant macro-trend, what action should investors take to protect their money and wealth?
I discuss this, and SO MUCH MORE, in today's episode of "Money, Markets, and New Age Investing.”
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Just as inflation has retreated and it at least appears that a soft landing is not such a far-fetched thought as we once might have believed, BAM, the "perfect storm" is unleashed on the markets in the Middle East, in what could become a worst-case-scenario.
We start with China, where the PBOC has remains TIGHT even as the economic data erodes as is best evidenced by a multi-month decline in the year-year rate of change in both Export and Imports. The Chinese Central Bank has been reluctant to cut their Policy Rate even in light of six-months of ZERO inflation. It leaves one wondering if China, after a prolonged period of COVID-lockdowns, isn't using a restrictive policy to slow the economy on purpose, squelching growth in the country that has been THE engine of global growth for a decade. Is China purposefully trying to weaken Western economies?
And in terms of the horrific situation unfolding in the Middle East, is there a chance China is the ultimate puppet master here, like they are behind the scenes in the Russian invasion of the Ukraine?
Is this a coordinated effort driven by China, "out of" Iran, one that will bring ALL of Israel's enemies together as a means to draw the West into a messy war in the Middle East. And would this provide "cover", especially as the US enters what promises to be a CIRCUS in 2024, politically speaking, for China to make moves in the South China Sea.
What if...inflation rises again, amid continued move higher in Energy prices?
And most importantly, what should one be doing with their Portfolios at this point, to maintain wealth appreciation while protecting against a Fed that is likely to remain restrictive for MONTHS to come. For sure Greg has already given you some fantastic ideas that have paid off nicely over the last couple of months, so make sure to check out his latest thoughts on this topic.
Indeed, Greg discusses ALL of the above, and then some, in Episode 15 of Money, Markets & New Age Investing.Support the show
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Irresponsible money printing and out-of-control deficit spending, exacerbated by (ongoing) supply-demand fundamentals that are increasingly skewed towards supply side issues (AKA shortages relative to demand) leads to inflation (AKA more money chasing fewer goods).
Inflation leads to a decline in the purchasing power of paper currencies (globally), which in turn leads to an overtly and unrelentingly hawkish monetary policy from Central Banks, in our case the Federal Reserve Bank. A "restrictive" monetary policy leads to rising Bond yields (which is now turning into a global Bond market mini-melt-down), an exponentially higher cost to carry debt or borrow money and a rising US Dollar (given the fact that US interest rates have, and are, rising faster than most any other G-20 country).
Higher interest rates AND an appreciation in the currency leads to...tightening monetary conditions...less willingness and ability to borrow or lend, by companies, households, and banks...raising of cash and selling of securities by banks...emerging market currencies plunging in value, many to new multi-year or all-time lows...a crack in Gold and other commodities aside from Energy...and (seemingly) suddenly the specter of a sell-off in stocks appears, causing equity indexes to shudder and shiver a little.
One thing leads to another ... and ALL of this likely leads to a global recession.
Have we seen this before?? Does this "look" and "feel" like...1987?
Or maybe it sounds a little like 1990?
Or, perhaps it feels more like 2007-08?
Indeed, it sure seems like 1978-79?Greg Weldon has been a professional trader-advisor and research provider through ALL of those time frames, and he says it feels, looks like, and seems like ALL of those times, and then some.
Find out why in "One Thing Leads to Another", as Greg takes you "back to the future" once again, to get a glimpse of what the future is most likely to bring.
ALSO, make sure to sign up on YouTube /user/GregoryWeldon to get "In a Macro-Market Minute", a free, daily, sixty-second video covering the topic Du jour, to see ALL the charts and overlay comparisons Greg mentions in today's podcast.
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In this business one must put ego aside and be willing to be wrong, a lot. Success comes down to unearthing the facts, digging deep into the data-details, connecting the dots globally, and putting ALL the little pieces together to build a picture that reflects the FACTS as they relate to the current situation.
From there we must be open minded to changes in the macro-monetary environment while conjuring up and contemplating ALL the possible scenarios the current FACTS might portend for the future. As I conjoin the puzzle pieces offered by the latest deluge of FACTS, we can easily envision a recession, one that I see heading straight at us here in the US, not to mention the global economy.I construct the puzzle from scratch in today's podcast, AND, more importantly, offer my thoughts on what to do with these facts, strategically speaking (AKA the preferred optimum investment focus). From US Government handouts (Transfer Payments) to the impact on Food inflation from El Nino, from the crash in the US Mortgage market to the souring sentiment among US Consumers linked to their financial situation, from the upside breakout in the share price of International Business Machines (IBM) to the intensifying erosion in the Labor market, from the bullish fundamental FACTS behind the rise in Crude Oil and Uranium prices down to how to best "play" those markets...Money, Markets & New Age Investing has YOU COVERED!
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Is it Mark William Calaway? … or Jerome Powell? … will the REAL "Undertaker" please stand up!
Indeed, the modern-day version of legendary WWF superstar and World Champion "The Undertaker" is none other than the current Chair of the US Federal Reserve Bank, Jerome Powell ... who continued his Steel Cage Death Match this past Friday while on tour in Jackson Hole. Powell has spent the last year wrestling with, grappling with, and battling the great "Inflation Genie", and ultimately only the victor will be allowed out of then cage to hoist the World Championship Belt.
Jerome "The Undertaker" WANTS that Championship Belt BADLY!
Unfortunately, he is not seven feet tall weighing 310 pounds.
Moreover, just like in professional wrestling there are side characters who intervene to try and take out The Undertaker. You are already familiar with "The Base Effect", which is set to reverse into high gear as an upside influence on inflation data as Gasoline prices are now rising on a month-month basis, and are above prices seen last year. Further, there is a SURPRISE "guest" who shows up in today's coverage and threatens to unleash mayhem in the steel cage. Entering the cage please welcome "The Nuclear Reactor" .
And if that wasn't enough drama...another superstar from the past is set to make a return to the steel cage to blow EVERYONE away and leave the fans with mouths to the floor. Welcome back the legendary "Currency Crisis", who has been busy in 2023 touring the globe and leaving a lengthening list of Emerging Market currencies flat out on the mat, at record lows versus the USD.
The action is now FAST and FURIOUS...with the financial health of the audience members hanging in the balance...it is..."The Undertaker" in the Steel Cage, body slamming the labor market, pile-driving credit conditions, paralyzing the mortgage market, crippling the consumer, hoping to suffocate asset price appreciation, and looking to break some bones in the US economy … all in his drive to PIN the "Inflation Genie", and retain the Championship Belt!
This match is going to be very interesting to watch.Support the show
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The average Consumer in the US has been forced to borrow money just to pay the monthly bills, and while Consumers have exhaled a sigh-of-relief as inflation spiraled back "down" to 3%...little do they realize the WAR is not over. No, the war has only just begun, as the "base effect" in Energy, THE primary force that drove inflation lower, is done, finished, over, GONE! ...to be replaced next month by a sharp year-year INFLATION in Gasoline, which will could well drive the rate of CPI inflation back above 4%.
Worse yet, the supply-demand fundamantals in Crude Oil and Gasoline are decidedly BULLISH for prices thru the end of the year, with Saudi output cuts resulting in fast-and-furious declines in inventories, resulting in the largest single week of US Crude Oil Imports in DECADES, this past week. The daily supply deficit is anywhere from 1.5 to 3 million barrels per day, and without a sharp decline in consumption (not likely) prices will rise, and could soar, with Crude Oil above $100 per barrel, and Gasoline clearing $4 gallon.In the meantime, China's trade surplus hit $80 billion, and is tracking at greater than $1 trillion for the year, while at the same time they are hoarding supplies of Crude Oil, Copper, Wheat, and Soybeans, much of that sourced from Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The US consumer, not to mention equity market investors are already "at war", as is the US, in a financial asset and natural resource WAR with the new Axis-of-Power, China-Russia-OPEC. For investors it is time to take action and have exposure to specific key commodities and currencies, as the task of keeping pace with the debasement of paper money is about to intensify. Greg details some of the Energy linked ETFs that individual investors should consider, and offers a FREE special report on the entire sector, including the individual Petro-patch shares.
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The infamous "line" from the Hollywood classic "Animal House", when freshman Delta pledge "Flounder" walks into a smokey room with frat brothers sitting around several poker tables and cluelessly asks … "Are you guys playing cards?"
Today, Greg asks that question of the Fed … using the Fed meeting Minutes from the June Central Bank pow-wow as the likely answer, and then delves into the intricacies and nuance of high stakes poker, the kind of game global Central Banks are now "playing" in terms of when to "fold" their hawkish rate-hiking "hand". Indeed, an end to tightening campaigns AND a move back to CUTS in Policy Rates is a trend that is already emerging in Asia where inflation has COLLAPSED in several key countries.
Moreover, the US labor market data last Friday revealed forward "tells" that suggest the END is NEAR for employment growth … and this puts the US Dollar back "into play" … which in turn puts the Commodities, Bonds, and even the Stock market back on the table, in terms of owning non-dollar assets. This approach would also include having "long exposure" to Gold, the Mining Share ETFs, and, though Greg forgot to mention it, Bitcoin and Ethereum too.
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In Episode #9, before Greg gets to the intensifying and already vicious El Nino that has become dominant in the Pacific Ocean...he discusses the Fed and monetary policy, the disinflation in the year over year rate of change in CPI inflation to just 4%, and the polarized price action in the US Dollar.
Then Greg takes on the US Federal Budget numbers for May, and breaks down what this NIGHTMARE is really all about...enabling an insolvent, and debt addicted government, who must print ever more money on “our dime”, with US Public Debt set to reach $40 trillion by the end of the next fiscal year. Moreover, with another $240 billion deficit in May, four times last May’s shortfall and pumping out debt at a $2.9 trillion per year pace...the US Federal Government must “borrow” ONE BILLION DOLLARS AN HOUR, just to keep operating.
Greg examines the El Nino phenomenon in depth, noting how this is likely to spark another round of inflation, specifically in Food commodities, GLOBALLY, and the dramatic impact it is ALREADY having on the weather around the world...before finishing with a look at Turkey, as a prelude to what other countries, including the US, may “look like” in years to come, financially speaking.Support the show
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While all focus is on the “Debt Ceiling” buffoonery...the Retail Sales report revealed DEEP and DEEPENING contraction in Sales within nearly EVERY type of Discretionary sector-industry…particularly the heretofore resilient Building Material and Garden Supply stores. At the same time the Fed continues to turn apathetic and complacent phrase when asked about the banking system, saying they EXPECT further tightening in “credit conditions”, and they continue to verbally “attack” the labor market. How far will the Fed go to fight off thoughts, already priced into the markets, of Fed rate cuts by year end, a lower dollar, Gold above $2000 and stocks breaking out towards new highs?? How MUCH PAIN is Powell willing to inflict?? Is it possible he could bring the guillotine down on CREDIT GROWTH just as growth SOARS to newer-new record highs?? Is Powell willing to release the guillotine over the neck of the consumer, and thus the economy?? And if so, what should we as investors do about it??
All this and much more, in Episode #8 of “Money, Markets & New Age Investing”
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Ahead of the May 3rd meeting of the US Federal Reserve Bank's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) the debate is raging ... will and should the Fed hike their official short-term interest (policy) rate again, or not.
The year-year rate-of-change in the US Consumer Price Index has disinflated to "only" +5.0% amid a massive single-month decline posted for March as the Energy "Base Effect" started to impact the data. This is a phenomenon that becomes much more intense, and potentially disinflationary, over the next three months, with the potential to bring the PCE inflation rate down to a "three-handle" (AKA three-something percent on a year-year basis).
If that happens, and it will unless Gasoline prices SOAR in the next 6-8 weeks (certainly possible, but not likely, even in the face of a deep year-year deficit in US inventories) ... then at the Fed's CURRENT Fed Funds Rate of 5% (top end of the range) monetary policy would finally reach the Fed's objective, by becoming "restrictive".
Consider that the three most used words in the Fed's own Beige Book were "soft", "softer", and "softened" ... and ... that the CB noted that the US consumer is in retreat, demand is softening, and even the labor market is loosening. Within that context I must ask WHY??? WHY in The Charmin Soft Economy" does the Fed need to raise rates again, and risk causing a FURTHER tightening in "credit conditions", the VERY LAST thing the Fed, or anyone else, wants right now.
There is A LOT going on, but there are ways to benefit from the market action, within the context of what is coming next. Greg discusses ALL of this, and then some, in Episode 007 of "Money, Markets & New Age Investing."
And make sure to take advantage of the offer for some free material at the end of this podcast.
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