Episodios
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Sarah recently sat down with Reid Hoffman and Aria Finger on their podcast Possible to talk about the future of politics, the origins of her focus group work, and how artificial intelligence might impact that work.
https://possible.fm/podcast -
We're taking a break from the presidential race this week. The battle for control of the Senate is running through red states, with former Trump voters. Some of them are more persuadable than others. Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report joins Sarah to discuss the Senate races in Ohio, Montana, and Texas, and the role of abortion politics in this year's Senate races.
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¿Faltan episodios?
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Kamala Harris crushed Donald Trump in this week's debate...and swing voters noticed. CNN's Dana Bash joins Sarah to discuss her new book, this week's debate, her experience as the co-moderator of the June 27 debate, and the role of moderator fact-checking in both debates.
show notes
By Dana Bash and David Fisher:
America's Deadliest Election: The Cautionary Tale of the Most Violent Election in American History -
Kamala Harris's campaign has created a month of immaculate vibes, but plenty of voters are still skeptical. Semafor Washington bureau chief Benjy Sarlin joins Sarah to discuss the state of the race going into the second debate, and Harris's standing with skeptical former Biden voters.
show notes
Adam Carlson's Crosstab Aggregator
Relevant past episodes:
With black voters:
March 2024, with Ashley Allison
July 2024, with Audie Cornish
With hispanic voters:
October 2023, with Ruy Teixeira
June 2024, with Amy Walter -
The Democratic National Convention was a respite from Democrats' summer of despair, and a lot of the good vibes filtered down to swing voters...but are good vibes enough? Democratic pollster John Anzalone joins Sarah to listen to how the new ticket looks to swing voters...and even some former Trump voters who are now Harris-curious.
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The Bulwark is ON LOCATION at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, and we've got quite a lot to talk about! National Political Reporter Joe Perticone joins Sarah to recap the sights and sounds from the convention. They also walk through swing voters' reactions to the Harris-Walz ticket, and how plugged in they were to convention coverage generally (not very much).
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JD Vance's evolution on Trump over the years has left voters wondering what he really believes. But our guest this week can shed some light on that. POLITICO's Ian Ward joins Sarah to discuss his reporting on JD Vance and the "new right" more broadly. They also discuss Ian's reporting from inside Project 2025, and the role it may play in a future Trump administration...regardless of what Trump says.
Show notes
By Ian Ward:
It Was Supposed to Be Trump’s Administration in Waiting. But Project 2025 Was a Mirage All Along.
Is There Something More Radical than MAGA? J.D. Vance Is Dreaming It.
JD Vance on Elizabeth Warren, Steve Bannon and What’s Wrong With the GOP
Are Republican Voters Ready for the Nerdy Radicalness of JD Vance?
The Seven Thinkers and Groups That Have Shaped JD Vance’s Unusual Worldview -
Sarah is on vacation this week, but we didn't want to leave you without some focus group reactions to Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz joining the Democratic ticket. Listen to how swing voters from around the country AND Minnesota voters who know Walz best are thinking about him and the presidential race more broadly. We'll see you next week.
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Kamala Harris is closing in on a vice presidential pick, and her shortlist looks...a LOT different than Joe Biden's shortlist did in 2020. New Bulwark managing editor Sam Stein joins Sarah to break down Harris's options and walk through his new reporting on scammy Democratic PACs.
show notes
By Sam Stein:
Harris Camp Warns Supporters: Don’t Get Duped by ‘Scam PACs’
They Begged Dems for Money—Then Spent Lavishly on Hotels and Entertainment -
At the 11th hour, Kamala Harris is now the presumptive Democratic nominee. Longtime listeners will know that swing voters have had a negative impression of her--but luckily, it's just an impression! David Axelrod, former senior advisor to President Obama, joins Sarah to walk through where Harris goes from here.
show notes
The Bulwark in Dallas on September 5
The Axe Files with David Axelrod
Hacks on Tap -
The Republican National Convention took place with the backdrop of an assassination attempt, and Donald Trump added a MAGA true believer to his ticket, in J.D. Vance. The Bulwark's Marc Caputo joins Sarah from Milwaukee to discuss the convention, the aftermath of the assassination attempt on Trump, and voters' reactions to the Trump-Vance ticket.
This episode was recorded before Donald Trump's acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention.
show notes
Marc Caputo in The Bulwark: White Men Can Vote: The Logic Behind J.D. Vance for VP -
Democrats' spin holds that the calls for Joe Biden to drop out are driven by the media, while base Democratic voters beyond Washington are committed to seeing Biden as the nominee, and there will be a backlash if he isn't. In a series of focus groups with black Democratic voters this week, we found the truth to be more complicated. Audie Cornish, host of the CNN podcast The Assignment with Audie Cornish, joins Sarah to evaluate how Democratic voters (especially black voters) are grappling with whether Joe Biden should stay in the race...and how perceptions of Kamala Harris are driving the discussion.
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Joe Biden's debate performance was a disaster...and voters noticed. Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller bring you the voters' reactions and a frank discussion about the risks and rewards of Biden stepping aside as the nominee...because something in this race has to change.
show notes
Puck News: Biden Plunges in Swing States in Leaked Post-Debate Poll -
We taped this show before Joe Biden's disastrous first debate, but its thesis still holds true: he's losing this race. To better understand why, we fielded a group of Hispanic voters who voted for Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, and are now leaning towards Trump. Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report joins Sarah to break down why these voters are giving Donald Trump a fresh look.
From Amy Walter:
Biden’s Slumping Poll Numbers Not Only Limited to Swing States
Defectors and Double-Haters: Who Are They, and Who Can Win Them? -
Utah has been something of a bulwark (pun intended) against Trumpism, but even they haven't been immune to sliding into MAGA. And now, with Sen. Mitt Romney retiring, Republican voters are poised to pick a new U.S. senator there. The Atlantic's McKay Coppins joins Sarah to break down how Utah Republicans are different, and where they might go from here. They also discuss voters' assessments of Romney as he prepares to leave office.
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One of the Republican Party's biggest long-term problems is that their base is demanding behavior that swing voters won't tolerate, and few things have brought out this gap better than Donald Trump's recent conviction. The Washington Post's Isaac Arnsdorf joins Sarah to discuss what the MAGA base expects out of politicians these days, and how swing voters are reacting.
show notes:
Isaac Arnsdorf's Book: Finish What We Started: The MAGA Movement’s Ground War to End Democracy -
When Donald Trump's 34 felony convictions were handed down, we had focus groups ready to talk about them. PBS Newshour's Laura Barrón-López joins Sarah to listen to swing voters' reactions to Trump's conviction, and to the start of Hunter Biden's federal trial.
show notes
PBS Newshour: How Republican voters feel about Trump and the election after his conviction -
We have five months to go until Election Day, and nobody's happy. So we're bringing you some catharsis. Jonathan V. Last joins Sarah to let out a primal scream and preview the home stretch of this presidential campaign through the lens of Trump '16/Biden '20 voters.
This show is sponsored by BetterHelp. Focus Group Podcast listeners can get 10% off their first month at BetterHelp.com/thefocusgroup -
North Carolina Republicans have nominated a candidate for governor who might be crazier than all of the Republicans who ran in 2022. And that's saying something. POLITICO's Zach Montellaro joins Sarah to walk through Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson's political rise, and how his supporters and GOP detractors feel about him.
show notes:
Zach Montellaro in POLITICO: The most important governor’s race of 2024 is about to have its own version of TrumpJessica Piper and Zach Montellaro in POLITICO: Trump’s weaknesses with GOP voters go beyond the suburbs -
2024's college graduates started their college careers with COVID, and ended them with encampments on most of their campuses. Tim Miller joins Sarah to discuss how America's youth have dealt with a turbulent few years, how they view the recent protests on their campuses, and their thoughts on November's election.
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