Episodios
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Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research and former Federal Reserve insider, joins the Julia La Roche Show for an in-person interview to discuss why she sees "frayed nerves" at the Federal Reserve about the incoming Trump administration. In this wide-ranging conversation, DiMartino Booth reveals why 18 months of downward revisions to jobs data is "statistically impossible," explains how bureaucrats could start "releasing the Kraken" with true economic data that gets "pinned on Trump," and warns about the explosion of buy-now-pay-later debt that's not showing up in official credit statistics. She also shares a powerful message about the growing divide between Wall Street and Main Street
A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.
DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.
Links:
QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth
Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655
Timestamps:
00:00 Welcome Danielle
01:00 Reaction to the FOMC, frayed nerves at the Fed
3:08 Fed spooked by inflation
3:45 Fed went in opposite direction of staff presentations
6:30 10-Year
8:03 A "closer call"
9:12 Does the Fed make policy for the public good?
13:00 Nihilism among younger generations
16:30 The government is buying the economy time, and the Fed is making the wealthier wealthier
18:48 Are we in a recession?
22:00 Declining consumption is not a prerequisite to recession
24:10 Could Trump inherit a recession?
26:30 Jobs numbers
30:00 Story behind the data
31:20 Trump administration 2.0
37:45 Stock market
39:50 What's keeping Danielle up at night
42:11 Parting thoughts
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Former hedge fund manager Felix Zulauf, founder and president of Zulauf Consulting, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 220 for his annual outlook interview to discuss why U.S. stocks are in a bubble and what could break it. In this wide-ranging conversation, Zulauf explains why watching the Japanese yen is critical for understanding when global liquidity might dry up, warns that AI stocks could fall 50-70% when the bubble bursts, and shares his view that 2025 will be a "mini version" of the decade's roller coaster ride for markets. He also discusses why Trump's proposed tariffs could create significant economic headwinds, explores why Europe and China face structural challenges, and outlines his targets for Bitcoin ($115,000-$130,000) before a potential 80% correction.
https://www.felixzulauf.com/
0:00 Welcome back Felix Zulauf
00:50 Macro picture
03:47 China's structural challenges
06:14 Germany and Europe's structural malaise
09:36 US labor market dynamics
12:46 Impact of government spending cuts and tariffs
16:30 US stock market bubble discussion
21:14 Global liquidity and Japanese yen dynamics
25:14 Market bubble indicators and timing
28:39 Decennial pattern analysis
32:36 Discussion of inflation dynamics
36:36 Bond market paradigm shift
41:20 Commodity sector leadership outlook
45:21 Trade war risks and historical parallels
48:56 Gold and Bitcoin outlook
51:20 Financial system stability concerns
https://www.felixzulauf.com/
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Professor Campbell Harvey, professor of finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University and the inventor of the most famous recession indicator — the inverted yield curve — returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 219 to discuss the state of the economy, the yield curve, and what's ahead for U.S. growth.
Links:
DeFI and the Future of Finance: https://www.amazon.com/DeFi-Future-Finance-Campbell-Harvey/dp/1119836018 https://www.fuqua.duke.edu/faculty/campbell-harvey https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/ https://twitter.com/camharvey
Timestamps:
00:02 Introduction to Professor Campbell Harvey
00:51 BlackRock's "end of boom-bust cycle" thesis
04:15 Historical perspective on market cycles
06:14 Impact of wealthy consumers on economy
07:13 Role of technological innovation
11:37 U.S. leadership in innovation
14:31 Growth prospects and productivity potential
16:09 Post-election growth outlook
24:56 U.S. debt and deficit challenges
28:16 Social Security sustainability issues
32:51 Inverted yield curve indicator discussion
40:11 Impact of technological innovations
45:21 Federal Reserve policy critique
50:20 Distortions from Fed's zero-rate policy
54:18 Future consequences of Fed decisions
59:40 Closing thoughts on U.S. prospects
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James Lavish, reformed hedge-fund manager and co-managing partner of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund and author of The Informationist newsletter, joined Episode 218 of the Julia La Roche Show as Bitcoin crossed the historic $100,000 milestone.
Lavish provides a comprehensive analysis of the current macro environment, explores why "all roads lead to inflation," breaks down MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy, and shares his outlook on institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies. He also discusses the widening wealth gap in America and examines the challenges facing the Department of Government Efficiency's ambitious spending cut goals.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://x.com/jameslavish
The Informationist: https://jameslavish.substack.com/
The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund: https://www.bitcoinopportunity.fund/
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and welcome James Lavish
00:45 Post-election market overview
02:34 Fed policy and bond market reaction
04:56 Labor market and unemployment analysis
06:40 Discussion of economic soft spots
09:27 Wealth inequality and Cantillon effect
12:16 Federal Reserve's policy options
15:05 Understanding unemployment metrics
18:41 Debt and deficit discussion
24:19 Department of Government Efficiency analysis
29:34 Bitcoin breaking $100K milestone
33:24 Bitcoin ETF impact and institutional adoption
38:36 Bitcoin catalysts and outlook
44:18 MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy explained
51:13 Corporate Bitcoin adoption outlook
55:18 Closing thoughts and investment approach
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Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, joins Julia La Roche on Episode 217 to discuss his new book "The Little Book of Bitcoin." He shares his journey from his 11-day tenure as White House Communications Director to SkyBridge Capital's bold entry into cryptocurrency that nearly led to the firm's collapse. Scaramucci offers insights on failure, risk-taking, and explains why he believes Bitcoin's value will increase tenfold from today's price.
Links:
https://x.com/scaramucci
https://www.amazon.com/Little-Book-Bitcoin-Already-Figured/dp/1394286643
0:00 Welcome Anthony Scaramucci
01:50 Scaramucci on Trump
04:00 Politics
05:00 Impact on relationship
06:23 Take risks and fail
08:37 How bad did it get economically?
10:29 Doing nothing is sometimes the best thing to do, but it's very hard on Wall Street
12:20 Island of Elba observation
14:15 Getting fired from the White House
17:55 Macro picture
25:00 Skybridge taking a massive risk in 2020, going in on Bitcoin
32:00 Raising money again, buying Bitcoin still
33:57 Said Bitcoin was going to $100K at the end of 2022
36:13 Trump and Bitcoin
39:17 Michael Saylor
43:16 Bitcoin existing as part of Wall Street
50:00 If I'm right, it's going to be worth 10x where it is today, $150K-$300K next 3-5 years
53:11 Why Gary Gensler helped the crypto industry
55:30 Parting thoughts
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Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joined the Julia La Roche Show (Ep. 216) to share his outlook on markets amid the transition to a new Trump administration. Whalen explains why the markets want to see seriousness about deficit reduction from the incoming administration, discusses his views on Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary pick, and outlines why showing progress on the deficit could drive rates lower without Fed intervention. He also delves into the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the return of bond vigilantes, and why Bitcoin's rise is his favorite inflation indicator.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/
Timestamps:
**Timestamps:**
00:01 Introduction to Chris Whalen
00:54 Post-election cabinet picks and macro overview
03:16 Analysis of Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent
05:04 Discussion of Treasury debt and market implications
06:14 Treasury priorities and impact on rates
07:31 Federal Reserve policy and market normalization
09:25 Long-term vs short-term rates outlook
11:25 Housing market forecast
13:22 Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac conservatorship discussion
17:16 GSE stock trading outlook
19:11 Fed rate cut implications for market narrative
21:49 Recession and credit market concerns
23:17 Inflation discussion and Bitcoin indicator
25:49 Gold policy recommendations
27:07 Tariffs and trade policy analysis
29:28 Department of Government Efficiency outlook
31:35 Government headcount reduction impact
34:44 Closing thoughts on Treasury markets
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Legendary investor Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros and author of multiple bestselling books including "Street Smarts" and "Investment Biker," returns to the Julia La Roche Show (Ep. 215) with a stark warning about America's debt crisis and market euphoria. Speaking from Singapore, Rogers shares why he's recently cut back his positions "enormously," explains his continued investments in China and Uzbekistan, and offers a sobering perspective on America's $200+ trillion in total obligations (this includes off-balance sheet debt). While not yet shorting markets, Rogers cautions that current market complacency reminds him of previous peaks, and explains why he's holding U.S. dollars despite long-term concerns about America's financial future.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank.
Treasury accounts offering 6 months T-Bills are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc.,member FINRA & SIPC. Securities in your account are protected up to $500,000. For details: www.sipc.org. Banking services and the Bank Accounts are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid- Central National Bank. For U.S. Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Treasuries risk disclosures, see https://jiko.io/docs/treasuries_risk_disclosure.pdf. See public.com/#disclosures-main
A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC and includes 10 investment-grade and high-yield bonds. As of [11/08/24], the average, annualized yield to worst (YTW) across all ten bonds is greater than 6%. A bond’s YTW is not “locked in” until the bond is purchased and is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTW of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity or if the issuer defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, there is no way to know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or by how much they will decline. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. All investing involves risk. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Visit public.com/bond-account to learn more
Timestamps:
00:03 Introduction and welcome Jim Rogers
00:56 Big picture view on markets and economy
02:31 Discussion of market bubble conditions
03:22 Recent portfolio reductions
04:27 China and Uzbekistan investments
07:36 China market outlook
09:24 Signs of market hysteria to watch for
11:37 Reaction to election and market complacency
14:04 U.S. debt situation ($200T+ including off-balance sheet)
17:11 U.S. dollar outlook and safe havens
19:03 Views on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies
20:50 Gold vs. silver investment thesis
22:29 Bond market outlook and inflation
24:27 Federal Reserve rate cuts discussion
26:36 Long-term investment trends
29:26 Discussion of new tariff proposals
31:06 Department of Government Efficiency outlook
33:29 Final thoughts and personal debt warning
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With over 40 years of Wall Street experience and known for correctly predicting the 1987 market crash, Peter Grandich joined the Julia La Roche Show (Ep. 214) to discuss America's unsustainable debt path, the BRICS nations' challenge to U.S. dominance, his concerns about a coming debt implosion, and why "less is more" should be the guiding principle for both personal and government finances, while also sharing a powerful personal story about forgiveness and mental health.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank.
Treasury accounts offering 6 months T-Bills are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc.,member FINRA & SIPC. Securities in your account are protected up to $500,000. For details: www.sipc.org. Banking services and the Bank Accounts are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid- Central National Bank. For U.S. Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Treasuries risk disclosures, see https://jiko.io/docs/treasuries_risk_disclosure.pdf. See public.com/#disclosures-main
A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC and includes 10 investment-grade and high-yield bonds. As of [11/08/24], the average, annualized yield to worst (YTW) across all ten bonds is greater than 6%. A bond’s YTW is not “locked in” until the bond is purchased and is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTW of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity or if the issuer defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, there is no way to know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or by how much they will decline. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. All investing involves risk. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Visit public.com/bond-account to learn more
Timestamps:
00:03 Introduction to Peter Grandich
01:07 Overview of America's debt problem and market outlook
03:14 Discussion of retirement and aging crisis
05:23 America's path and changing consumer habits
07:48 Warning about young financial advisors' market experience
09:42 Story behind "Wall Street Whiz Kid" title and 1987 crash
11:19 Market outlook and Trump administration impact
16:43 BRICS discussion and Wall Street's "biggest blunder"
21:11 Portfolio implications of BRICS development
24:34 Building a financial ark and investment strategy
27:36 Trump administration challenges and debt situation
30:02 Government employment and spending concerns
34:56 Retirement crisis and social security challenges
40:26 Gold outlook and critique of Bitcoin
48:15 Debt implosion as biggest risk
51:32 Personal story of forgiveness and mental health
55:21 Closing thoughts on gratitude and helping others
Links:
https://x.com/PeterGrandich
https://petergrandich.com/
https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6
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Ben Hunt, the author of Epsilon Theory (https://www.epsilontheory.com/) and co-founder of Second Foundation Partners, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss narratives and how they shape everything from financial markets to politics.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank.
Treasury accounts offering 6 months T-Bills are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc.,member FINRA & SIPC. Securities in your account are protected up to $500,000. For details: www.sipc.org. Banking services and the Bank Accounts are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid- Central National Bank. For U.S. Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Treasuries risk disclosures, see https://jiko.io/docs/treasuries_risk_disclosure.pdf. See public.com/#disclosures-main
A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC and includes 10 investment-grade and high-yield bonds. As of [11/08/24], the average, annualized yield to worst (YTW) across all ten bonds is greater than 6%. A bond’s YTW is not “locked in” until the bond is purchased and is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTW of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity or if the issuer defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, there is no way to know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or by how much they will decline. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. All investing involves risk. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Visit public.com/bond-account to learn more
00:00 Introduction to Ben Hunt
01:00 Narrative of narrative
03:08 Narratives behind markets
07:00 Wall Street is a story construction machine
09:08 Bitcoin "number go up" story, narrative evolution
20:00 Post-election market narratives
22:42 Shift from "structural" to "WTF" animal spirits
25:00 Managing market exits and exposure
30:17 How quickly narratives change
36:48 Discussion of "fiat news" concept
44:18 Evolution of semantic layer in markets
47:24 Closing thoughts on understanding storytelling systems
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Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, “Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity,” returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 212 to discuss the global liquidity cycle, markets, and why there's uncertainty in the year ahead.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank.
Treasury accounts offering 6 months T-Bills are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc.,member FINRA & SIPC. Securities in your account are protected up to $500,000. For details: www.sipc.org. Banking services and the Bank Accounts are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid- Central National Bank. For U.S. Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Treasuries risk disclosures, see https://jiko.io/docs/treasuries_risk_disclosure.pdf. See public.com/#disclosures-main
A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC and includes 10 investment-grade and high-yield bonds. As of [11/08/24], the average, annualized yield to worst (YTW) across all ten bonds is greater than 6%. A bond’s YTW is not “locked in” until the bond is purchased and is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTW of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity or if the issuer defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, there is no way to know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or by how much they will decline. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. All investing involves risk. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Visit public.com/bond-account to learn more
Links:
Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/
Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercap
Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902
Timestamps:
00:08 Introduction to Michael Howell
01:00 Global liquidity and market cycles overview
03:10 Global liquidity cycle visualization and trends
06:14 Discussion of debt refinancing vs. new capital financing
09:02 The approaching debt maturity wall and market challenges
12:46 Warning signs and historical financial crises
16:04 Bond market concerns and inflation outlook
21:37 Yield curve analysis and market distortions
23:24 Investment strategy recommendations
26:18 Gold and cryptocurrency as monetary inflation hedges
28:36 Investment regime cycles explanation
33:02 2025 outlook and mounting challenges
34:53 China's economic situation and policy constraints
39:10 Stock market euphoria vs. bond market signals
41:20 Final thoughts and portfolio allocation advice
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Veteran journalist and bestselling author Charlie Gasparino, Fox Business Senior Correspondent and New York Post columnist, joins Julia La Roche in-studio to discuss his newest book, "Go Woke, Go Broke."
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank. Treasury accounts offering 6 months T-Bills are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc.,member FINRA & SIPC. Securities in your account are protected up to $500,000. For details: www.sipc.org. Banking services and the Bank Accounts are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid- Central National Bank. For U.S. Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Treasuries risk disclosures, see https://jiko.io/docs/treasuries_risk_disclosure.pdf. See public.com/#disclosures-main
A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC and includes 10 investment-grade and high-yield bonds. As of [11/08/24], the average, annualized yield to worst (YTW) across all ten bonds is greater than 6%. A bond’s YTW is not “locked in” until the bond is purchased and is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTW of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity or if the issuer defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, there is no way to know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or by how much they will decline. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. All investing involves risk. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Visit public.com/bond-account to learn more
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Go-Woke-Broke-Radicalization-Corporate/dp/1546007415Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome Charlie Gasparino00:56 2024 election post-mortem05:02 'Woke doesn't sell' 11:16 Writing 'Go Woke, Go Broke' 14:00 Progressivism in the workplace 28:00 Media 37:00 Nail in the coffin of woke 29:50 Bud Light 43:55 A repudiation of woke
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Jim Rickards returns to the podcast for episode 210 to discuss the 2024 election results, his outlook for the economy and why he sees a recession in the near term followed by a great recovery, and his warning on artificial intelligence.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank.
Treasury accounts offering 6 months T-Bills are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc.,member FINRA & SIPC. Securities in your account are protected up to $500,000. For details: www.sipc.org. Banking services and the Bank Accounts are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid- Central National Bank. For U.S. Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Treasuries risk disclosures, see https://jiko.io/docs/treasuries_risk_disclosure.pdf. See public.com/#disclosures-main
A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC and includes 10 investment-grade and high-yield bonds. As of [11/08/24], the average, annualized yield to worst (YTW) across all ten bonds is greater than 6%. A bond’s YTW is not “locked in” until the bond is purchased and is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTW of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity or if the issuer defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, there is no way to know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or by how much they will decline. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. All investing involves risk. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Visit public.com/bond-account to learn more
More about Rickards:
Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, and his newest book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter.
Links:
https://www.amazon.com/MoneyGPT-AI-Threat-Global-Economy/dp/0593718631
http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards
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Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 209 to discuss the FOMC decision, the state of the economy, and the 2024 election results.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank.
Treasury accounts offering 6 months T-Bills are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc.,member FINRA & SIPC. Securities in your account are protected up to $500,000. For details: www.sipc.org. Banking services and the Bank Accounts are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid- Central National Bank. For U.S. Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Treasuries risk disclosures, see https://jiko.io/docs/treasuries_risk_disclosure.pdf. See public.com/#disclosures-main
A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC and includes 10 investment-grade and high-yield bonds. As of [11/08/24], the average, annualized yield to worst (YTW) across all ten bonds is greater than 6%. A bond’s YTW is not “locked in” until the bond is purchased and is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTW of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity or if the issuer defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, there is no way to know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or by how much they will decline. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. All investing involves risk. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Visit public.com/bond-account to learn more
More about Danielle:
A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.
DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.
Links:
QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth
Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655
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Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to the show for episode 208 to discuss the economy, markets, and the 2024 presidential election.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only.
*A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen
00:56 Big picture, overview of interest rates and Fed policy
02:57 Analysis of Treasury bond market dynamics
04:11 Long-term outlook for bonds and market structure
06:01 Discussion of fiscal policy and government spending
09:00 Critique of government spending efficiency
11:24 Commentary on government sector competency
13:21 Election outlook and demographic shifts
16:56 Analysis of Bank of America and banking sector
19:16 Discussion of stock selection in current market
22:42 Investment strategy in uncertain times
24:59 Analysis of hydrogen and energy sector outlook
26:02 Key market risk: potential for higher long-term rates
28:05 Closing thoughts and upcoming conference call
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Legendary economist Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode on episode 207 to discuss the state of the economy.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Timestamps:
# Timestamps for Dr. Gary Shilling Interview
00:00 Welcome Dr. Shilling
00:55 Macro view, analysis of labor markets and recent employment data
02:39 Fed's priorities and concerns about labor market softening
03:26 Discussion of upcoming Fed meeting and rate cut expectations
04:59 Explanation of soft landings vs recessions
07:26 Analysis of current economic imbalances
09:14 Assessment of recession probability (40-50%)
12:52 Discussion of economic forecasting as art vs science
16:17 Analysis of bond market outlook
19:36 Discussion of inflation expectations and bond yields
22:42 Portfolio positioning and investment opportunities
24:06 Analysis of India vs China investment outlook
27:11 Assessment of upcoming US election implications
28:49 Discussion of debt and deficit issues
31:15 Analysis of US dollar's reserve currency status
32:36 Closing remarks and contact information
Access Dr. Shilling's monthly newsletter INSIGHT by calling this toll free number (1-888-346-7444) or visiting his website (https://www.agaryshilling.com/).
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Grant Williams, author of “Things That Make You Go Hmmm…” and host of The Grant Williams podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 206 for a wide-ranging conversation on macro.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Links:
https://www.grant-williams.com/
https://twitter.com/ttmygh
Timestamps:
01:07 Overview of current market confusion and multiple risks
03:33 Discussion of monetary policy and debt challenges
05:22 Analysis of BRICS developments and global shifts
07:49 Framework for assessing negative outcomes
09:35 Discussion of millennial investors and passive investing
14:26 Analysis of inflation and Federal Reserve credibility
17:19 Impact of inflation on society and purchasing power
22:11 Discussion of affordability and political implications
25:31 Analysis of public sentiment and policy constraints
31:16 Geopolitical considerations and policy options
35:01 Portfolio construction and preservation strategies
42:24 Bond market reactions and loss of Fed credibility
45:06 Breakdown of trust in financial system
48:52 Fourth Turning framework and implications
50:45 Potential factors that could alter thesis
52:43 Long-term perspective on gold investment
54:47 Analysis of silver as monetary metal
57:17 Closing thoughts on navigating current environment
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Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 205 to discuss the macro view, why the market is signaling the Fed's rate cut was a mistake, the dynamics of the labor market, and the presidential election.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Links:
BiancoResearch.com
BiancoAdvisors.com
x.com/biancoresearch
00:00 Intro and welcome Jim
01:00 Analysis of Fed's 50 basis point rate cut and market reaction
04:27 Discussion of labor market and population growth impact
06:53 Analysis of ADP data and small business employment
09:11 Impact of immigration on economic statistics
11:20 Fed's political vs partisan nature in rate decisions
14:13 Explanation of "no landing" economic scenario
17:06 Outlook for bonds and inflation impact
19:59 Stock market return expectations
22:25 Bond market competition with stocks
23:33 Demographics and bear market discussion
26:28 Analysis of election betting markets and probabilities
31:41 Inflation outlook regardless of election outcome
33:04 Discussion of inflation rates vs cumulative price increases
37:11 Implications of a 3% inflation world
40:48 Closing remarks and information about Bianco Research
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Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 204 for a wide-ranging conversation on economics and politics and geopolitics.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48).
Links:
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound
Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and welcome David Woo
00:59 Overview of macro picture, analysis of US labor market and economic data
03:22 Discussion on Chinese economy and stimulus measures
05:46 Impact of US-China rivalry on European economy, especially Germany
08:07 Critique of Federal Reserve's recent rate cut decision
10:28 Explanation of illegal immigration's impact on economic data
13:29 Analysis of upcoming US election and potential market impacts
16:57 Discussion on potential Israeli attack on Iran before US election
21:13 Analysis of Iran's military capabilities and potential conflict
25:36 Reasons for potential Israeli attack before US election
31:03 Investment strategies for different election scenarios
36:05 Analysis of polling data and election predictions
51:30 Demographic analysis of voter support for candidates
54:49 Discussion on risks to Trump's candidacy
57:27 Potential implications of a Trump victory
59:53 Speculations on potential Trump administration policies and team
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In episode 203, David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joined Julia to discuss the current economic landscape and his outlook for the future.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
In this episode, Rosenberg challenged the prevailing optimism about the U.S. economy, arguing that the apparent strength in GDP numbers is largely due to unsustainable government spending. He highlighted discrepancies between official data and other economic indicators, suggesting that the economy may be weaker than it appears. Rosenberg expressed concern about the stock market's high valuations, drawing parallels to previous market bubbles. He warned of potential risks, including a possible recession in 2025, and discussed the dangers of excessive exposure to equities, particularly among older investors. Rosenberg advocated for a more defensive investment strategy, recommending an increased allocation to bonds and gold, while maintaining a cautious approach to equities. Throughout the conversation, he emphasized the importance of understanding historical patterns and the risks of "new era" thinking in financial markets.
Links:
https://rosenbergresearch.com/
https://x.com/EconguyRosie
Timestamps:
00:23 Introduction and overview of current economic situation
01:03 Discussion on GDP growth and survey data divergence
02:57 Analysis of the Fed's Beige Book and economic indicators
05:19 Impact of government spending on GDP numbers
08:18 Discussion on fiscal policy and upcoming election
10:49 Analysis of government employment data and labor market
13:31 Long-term effects of fiscal policy
15:15 Lack of capital spending cycle and global economic slowdown
17:37 Diffusion analysis of the US economy
19:54 Potential fiscal policy changes after the election
21:10 Discussion on potential recession and historical comparisons
25:15 Analysis of interest rates and debt service costs
27:43 Lags in economic policy effects
31:35 Job report revisions and data reliability issues
35:43 Stock market valuation and earnings growth
39:21 Risks in current stock market valuations
42:26 Discussion on portfolio rebalancing and asset allocation
46:40 Concerns about passive index investing
50:01 Potential impact of stock market decline on the economy
54:15 Investment strategy and portfolio allocation
57:22 Approach to investing in bonds
01:00:45 Total return expectations for bonds
01:02:27 Parting thoughts
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Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 202 for a conversation on the state of the economy, the money supply, inflation, and the upcoming election.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hanke
Capital, Interest, and Waiting: Controversies, Puzzles, and New Additions to Capital Theory https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-63398-0
Making Money Work: How to Rewrite the Rules of Our Financial System:
https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/1394257260
https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/making-money-work-matt-sekerke/1146170520
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and welcome Professor Hanke
02:06 Discussion on China's economy and inflation
04:29 U.S. economy and money supply contraction
07:29 European economic situation
10:41 Focus on money supply vs interest rates
15:59 Discussion on job report revisions and data reliability
21:17 Inflation forecast and bond yields
25:57 Fed's record on predicting economic trends
27:29 Book recommendations on economic theory
31:57 Analysis of upcoming election (polls vs prediction markets)
38:17 Economic policies of candidates
42:40 Industrial policy and protectionism
45:15 Government spending as percentage of GDP
48:40 Parting thoughts and new book announcements
50:22 Closing remarks
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