Episodios
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In this episode, Nick and Kelvin discuss the recent GDP figures, their implications for the economy and property market, and the expected trends for 2025, including covering the final monthly chart pack of the year.
They analyse the government's financial update, the impact of interest rates on the housing market, and the current state of inflation and rental prices.
The conversation highlights the conflicting forces at play in the market and offers insights into future trends for investors and homeowners alike.
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In this episode, Nick and Kelvin review the New Zealand property market's performance in 2024 and discuss expectations for 2025.
They analyse key statistics from the 'Best of the Best' report, highlighting trends in property sales, rental yields, and the impact of interest rates.
The conversation also covers the changing dynamics of first home buyers and investors in the market, as well as broader economic indicators such as migration data and retail spending.
In this conversation, Kelvin and Nick discuss the current economic indicators and their implications for the real estate market, particularly focusing on Auckland's housing performance and the outlook for new builds in regional markets (thanks to some listener questions).
They analyse GDP trends, the impact of interest rates, and the performance of new townhouses compared to older properties. The discussion also touches on the broader economic recovery and the factors influencing regional markets.
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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the current state of the property market, highlighting a continued decline in home values (according to the CoreLogic Home Value Index) and a holding pattern in the market.
They explore insights from the construction industry, noting a potential bottoming out of dwelling consents and the impact of lower interest rates.
The conversation shifts to loan terms, revealing a trend towards shorter fixed rates and floating loans.
Looking ahead, they emphasize the importance of upcoming data releases, particularly net migration figures, and keep an eye out for the best of the best report, live on Thursday.
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In this episode Nick and Kelvin discuss the recent OCR decision, its implications for mortgage rates, and the current state of the lending market.
They analyze the latest lending data, highlighting increased activity among investors and first-home buyers.
The conversation shifts to the broader economic landscape, examining consumer confidence and retail sales trends.
They also delve into the impact of debt-to-income restrictions on the housing market and consider future economic recovery strategies, emphasizing the need for both monetary and fiscal support.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]
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In this episode, Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson discuss the Reserve Bank's recent decision to cut the official cash rate by 0.5%, bringing it down to 4.25%. They analyse the implications of this decision on economic forecasts, including unemployment rates and house price growth. The conversation highlights the expected trajectory of the OCR, the impact of lower mortgage rates on the housing market, and the broader economic context, including global factors influencing inflation and growth.
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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast, Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson discuss the current state of the property market, focusing on the anticipated OCR cut, buyer classification, and economic indicators. They explore the dynamics between first-home buyers and mortgaged investors, the challenges faced by movers, and the broader economic context influencing the Reserve Bank's decisions. The conversation highlights the slow recovery expected for the economy and property market, emphasising the need for fiscal support alongside monetary policy adjustments.
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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast, Nick Goodall interviews Mike Bloy, a mortgage advisor from Loan Market.
They discuss Mike's journey into mortgage advising, the daily responsibilities of a broker, the importance of building relationships with lenders, and the challenges faced in the current market.
Mike shares insights on navigating the second tier and non-bank lenders, as well as strategies for overcoming obstacles in providing excellent service to clients.
In this conversation, Mike and Nick discuss the intricacies of navigating the real estate market, focusing on strategies for home buyers, the importance of building trust and setting expectations, and insights into current market dynamics and interest rates.
They explore the changing behaviours of borrowers, particularly first-time buyers, and the emotional aspects of property purchasing.
The discussion culminates in predictions for the future of the market and the role of brokers in guiding clients through the process.
Contact Mike https://adviser.loanmarket.co.nz/mike-bloySign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]
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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Nick Goodall and chief economist Kelvin Davidson discuss the latest trends in the property market, including insights from the Pain and Gain report, current sales volumes, and the impact of economic indicators on consumer spending and the rental market. They also explore the cautious borrowing behavior of consumers in light of recent interest rate changes and provide forecasts for the upcoming economic landscape.
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After a quick run through the release of the CoreLogic First Home Buyer Report for Q3, Nick and Kelvin ponder the potential impact of the US election result and Donald Trump's return to the Whitehouse.
Then, there's the relatively inconsequential (to RBNZ's liking) Financial Stability Report to digest as well as the important official Labour Market statistics for Q3, which were better than expected on the surface but a bit of devil in the detail to be mindful of.
There were also some very interesting changes in the terms being chosen by mortgage holders in September to analyse.
Plus, how about those All Blacks?!
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After running through the highlights of the latest CoreLogic Home Value Index results for October, Nick and Kelvin delve into all the relevant data, assessing the state of our economy and business sector.
There's filled jobs data, highlighting the weakness across the labour market, detailed by @MusicalChairs14 on a twitter thread and discussed by the guys.
Kelvin also took the time to delve into the latest release from the Xero Small Business Insights showing ongoing declines in sales and increases in firms downsizing their workforce.
Things don't look great from a business perspective, however there's reason for optimism when analysing the ANZ business confidence survey, in particular expectations of future activity and inflation.
A lot to take on board, and that's without considering the detail within each of the above releases when it comes to the construction industry, alongside signs building consents may be at or approaching a respectable trough.
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Coming to you prior to the long Labour Weekend, Nick and Kelvin review all the property and lending data from the week.
Starting with a focus on property investors, following the release of the CoreLogic Monthly Chart Pack where Kelvin highlighted the upwards trend in sales to multiple property owners, as well as the RBNZ lending data showing investors taking on a greater share of lending above 65% LVR.
The other (unexpected) meaty piece of content to get stuck into was the Reserve Bank Governor's speech in the US, which Nick reviews and picks out a few quotes to help guide expectations for the next OCR review (and MPS) on November 27. Is a 75 basis point cut really a possibility?
The rest of the round up includes other insights from the chart pack (first home buyers) and lending data (interest only lending), the NZ Activity Index for September, rounding out Q3 in anticipation of official GDP data (in about 6 weeks!) and a surprise hit to consumer confidence.
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Following the release of the Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI) for Q3, Nick and Kelvin the state of the construction market, including a few reasons to be optimistic, though it's fair to say caution should still remain.
A quieter week for data also allows the guys to provide an update on what's happening from a listings perspective - both for sale and for rent, plus there's a usual economic round-up (PSI, card sales) and REINZ sales and HPI to digest.
Plus, a final wrap of the CPI inflation data which was released and discussed in an extra podcast last week.
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In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released CPI inflation data for Q3.
Headline inflation is now within the target band of 1-3% but there's plenty of detail and nuance to discuss, including the breakdown of tradeable to non-tradeable and the upside and downside risks of what's to come.
Perhaps most importantly, what could it mean for the next OCR decision on November 27? Is a 75 basis point cut on the cards?
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This week, Nick chats to Logan Reardon from Loan Market Auckland.
Logan has experienced a meteoric rise in the lending world as he's become an elite advisor in little more than 5 years in the industry. Logan has amassed a dedicated team in a very short time period - all tasked with getting the best result for their clients.
Logan isn't afraid to touch on difficult discussion points either, such as the conversation with those unfortunate first home buyers who bought at the peak, or someone engaging an off-the-plan built that's decreased in value through the build.
Nick and Logan delve into all that, and more, including the market reaction to the latest OCR cut, how different property types affect buyer power and expectation, the impact of the 'market chain' and how multi-banking is so important for investors.
Logan can be contacted on [email protected].
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Befitting it's importance the RBNZ MPR and OCR review leads the podcast once again. With a few more days to digest the decision the conversation turns to the potential impact to the property market and what the next decision might be - is a further 0.75% really on the cards?
Of course it's all down to inflation, which puts this Wednesday's CPI data for Q3 firmly in the spotlight. A drop from previous 3.3% is almost guaranteed but where will the annual rate land in comparison to the RBNZ's forecast of 2.3%?
Meanwhile there's plenty other data releases to digest, from CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for September through to Stats NZ rental price information.
Check out Kelvin's article on the latest lending stats too.
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The Reserve Bank has followed through on what ‘the markets’ and bank economists were expecting, with a 0.50% OCR cut today.
Inflation is considered to already be back in the target range (official data due Tuesday 16th) and the economy is weak, with the RBNZ noting we have ample spare capacity in NZ.
Check out today’s reactionary pod for Nick and Kelvin’s take on the decision.
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This week it's a special edition guest PLUS Monday data round up.
Along with Kelvin, Nick welcomes Richard Vaughan, Regional Director at Opteon Solutions to the pod.
As Nick is fresh off a family holiday in Rotorua, he offloads to Kelvin and Richard to fill him in on a busy week for the property market, including:
The Corelogic Home Value Index results for August.Stats NZ Census data, including home ownership figuresGovernment announcement to underwrite new developmentsRBNZ data on loan terms chose in AugustEconomic data on business confidence and filled jobs.That's all before a detail preview of the Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Review, and OCR decision coming up on Wednesday (reactionary pod pending Kelvin's Jury Duty and Nick's Sydney trip).
Of course, there's still room for a bit of sports chat at the end, including Richard's pride in his Olympic gold medal winning niece Tara Vaughan (K4 500), and the NRL Grand Final.
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It’s a busy period at the moment for work travel and holidays, so this week’s episode is appearing a few days early – and we kick things off by looking at NZ’s $1m+ property markets, some of which are no surprise (e.g Auckland, Queenstown), but also some which aren’t quite as obvious.
Meanwhile, the recent economic data – such as the NZ Activity Index – hasn’t done anything to change the strong odds that the OCR is cut again on 9th October, which will keep the downwards pressure on mortgage rates. The effects of that are already showing through in mortgage lending activity, which is rising, with low-deposit activity also picking up.
Looking ahead, we’re awaiting filled jobs data, business confidence, dwelling consents, and figures on the loan terms being chosen by new borrowers – short fixes have been popular lately, so it’ll be interesting to see how August’s figures shape up.
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With Kelvin away on holiday Nick calls up Mark Harris from New Zealand Sotheby's International Realty hear what's going on the premium property market, including the always-of-interest Queenstown Lakes district.
Mark also speaks about the impact of the foreign buyer ban and the potential for it to be loosened in order to increase foreign investment into the NZ economy.
Mark then delves into other policy changes - shortening of the Brightline test, reintroduction of interest deductibility, loosening of LVRs and introduction of DTIs. It's all covered in a wide-ranging chat which also includes a roundup of last week's data releases - importantly the GDP result for Q2, and what it could mean for the RBNZ's next OCR call on October 9.
And make sure you download the latest monthly chart pack to keep at your side for future reference.
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Following the latest update to the CoreLogic Mapping the Market tool, visualising values and value change by suburb, Nick and Kelvin discuss some of the results as well as the awesome level of info freely available to anyone who's interested. The results illustrate the recent weakness of the property market, but also the importance of keeping a long term view as the better-looking 12 month view shows.
Then from an economic perspective there's plenty to sink your teeth into (or should it be to swallow your ears?) with both net migration and rental prices continuing to slow.
The rental price data was also part of the broader price indices tracking from Stats NZ and on that note things continue to look good that inflation will be back below the 3% annual rate by the end of the quarter.
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