Episodios
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Well, we have a new US Presidential Administration with a very different economic strategy than its predecessor.
The president has already started vocally demanding the Federal Reserve be more aggressive in lowering interest rates.
And he's appointed a new head, Scott Bessent, at the US Treasury, replacing Janet Yellen.
What should we expect from the policies this Administration intends to pursue?
Will Jerome Powell march to the President's demands? Or will he flex to assert the Fed's independence?
And where does inflation figure into all of this?
For a true expert's informed perspective on these very important questions, we have the great privilege today of speaking with Dr Thomas Hoenig, former CEO of the Kansas City Fed, former voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, a former director of the FDIC, and now a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Mercatus Center.
BUY YOUR TICKET ATTHE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference -
¿Faltan episodios?
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When Sven Henrich of NorthmanTrader.com was last on this program in November, he gave the advice "remain bullish, but be careful"
Since then the S&P has increased slightly, but mostly trended sideways.
Here at the start of 2025, what does his Technical Analysis tell us to expect next?
And did the shock to investors delivered by China's surprise release of the DeepSeek A.I. model change his outlook at all?
To find out, we'll now hear from the man himself.
BUY YOUR TICKET AT THE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference -
Well, despite a week of high uncertainty -- the DeepSeek surprise, earnings releases for many of the Magnificent 7 stocks, a terrible aviation disaster and the declaration of tariffs against some of America's largest trading partners -- the markets actually seem to be doing fine.
The bulls are back in control and, technically-speaking, the action in stocks looks robust at the moment.
Will this sustain? And for how long?
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss this, as well as the latest inflation data, the latest GDP data, the increasingly-struggling US consumer, and Lance's firms latest trades.
For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this new Weekly Recap.
BUY YOUR TICKET AT THE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference -
Recession fears seem to have faded from the headlines, as the "no landing" scenario seems to have won out -- on Wall Street at least.
Attention is much more focused on a possible boost to economic growth from the policies of the new Trump administration, as well as concern that inflation could prove stickier and more stubborn to tame than the Fed hopes, resulting in higher for longer bond yields.
So, were the deflationists wrong?
For a true expert's view, we have the great fortune to sit down today with one of the greatest living economists, Dr. Lacy Hunt, former Senior Economist to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as well as several of the world's largest global banks. He now serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com -
When today's guest was on this program back in September, he predicted the market would start to become more volatile.
He didn't necessarily think that would mean lower stock prices into the end of 2024. And he was proven correct.
But he did express worry that as we entered 2025, continued higher volatility could start to become a problem for investors.
Does he still think that?
To find out, we welcome back to the program Cem Karsan, Founder, CIO, and Managing Principal of Kai Volatility Advisors, widely known as @jam_croissant on X/Twitter.
Follow Cem at https://www.kaivolatility.com/ and http://kaiwealh.com/and https://kai-nexus.com/
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com -
On this channel we conduct deep-dive discussions with hundreds of experts a year, doing our best to see through their eyes and chart a wise course through the economic waters ahead.
But with all the different approaches, opinions and conclusions, it's important to remind ourselves not to overcomplicate things.
The fundamentals to wealth building aren't rocket science.
And for most non-professional investors, keeping it simple, consistent and disciplined makes success more attainable.
In fact, today's guest claims that everything the average investor needs to know can fit on a standard index card.
So what's on that card? We'll ask the man himself.
Today we'll talk with Harold Pollack, University of Chicago Professor and co-author of the best-seller The Index Card: Why Personal Finance Doesn't Have to Be Complicated
Folks if you have children in college or starting out in life, this may be a particularly valuable discussion for them to hear. -
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts warns that corporate earnings expectations are likely unrealistic, and that one Wall Street realizes this, stock prices will have to come down.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com -
In his previous appearances on this channel, Michael Howell, founder & CEO of Crossborder Capital, has explained that rising net liquidity been largely responsible for the surprisingly strong performance seen in both the economy & the financial markets over the past 2 years.
Will the good times continue into 2025?
Don't count on it, Michael says.
To find out why, we'll sit down today with the man himself.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com -
One of the great David Bowie's most popular songs was titled "Changes"
Today's guest David Hay, Chief Investment Officer & Principal at Evergreen Gavekal, might well steal that title for his expected theme of 2025
He sees headwinds that could cause the economy to grow slower than many currently expect.
He sees the prices of stocks and bonds at risk. The Fed increasingly behind the curve, the dollar potentially reversing, and lots of uncertainty to soon ensue as the Trump Administration starts to deploy its disruptive policies.
He'll walk us through charts of all that and more today.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com -
The winds of change are blowing around the globe.
74 countries representing half of the world's population held national elections last year.
Many of them -- including the US -- saw a replacement of the ruling incumbent by the opposition, often one promising a more nationalistic agenda.
With so many new leaders and their accompanying new policies, what is the outlook for the global economy and financial markets in 2025?
To discuss, we have the great fortune of speaking today with Richard Koo, Chief Economist at the Nomura Research Institute as well as author of numerous best-selling books on economics.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com -
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts lays out the odds for where stocks are headed next.
We also discuss the rising bond term premium & what it means, the risk of a large market drawdown in 2025, Lance fir'sm latest trades and the benefits of using time to your advantage in both investing & life.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com -
Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro, has had a remarkably impressive track record in correctly forecasting the markets over recent years.
Having turned bullish near the end of 2022, he remained so ever since, helping his subscribers successfully ride the wave of ferocious back-to-back annual returns of over 20%+ in stocks.
He also helped them catch Bitcoin's price doubling over the past several months.
So, here at the start of 2025, where does his model seeing markets going next?
Should we expect more of the same?
Or is a trend change in store?
Well, after being "ragingly bullish" for the past 2 years, Darius now thinks there's good probability he will turn "ragingly bearish" at some point in 2025.
To find out why, watch this video.
Follow Darius' work at https://42macro.com/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=thoughtful_money&utm_content=jan_15 -
Despite the confidence Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is doing his best to project, inflation has not yet been slain.
And today's guest expert, Jim Bianco, founder of market research firm Bianco Research, thinks it's going to continue to prove problematic as the return of the "bond vigilantes" increasingly undermines the Fed's efforts.
We'll talk about his reasons why, as well as his concerns about the current extreme valuations in stocks, and why if they experience a material correction, bonds may not provide the protection to portfolios they did in the past.
Follow Jim at:
https://www.biancoresearch.com/
https://www.biancoadvisors.com/
https://www.youtube.com/@UCsHvbh9xvK12_1-A6GeY3qQ
https://x.com/biancoresearch
https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-bianco-117619152/
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com -
On this channel, we often highlight abnormalities we notice in the financial markets.
Today's guest actively embraces them as gifts from the investment gods.
In his words: "Fortunately, the financial markets are often quite inefficient, presenting opportunities for us to generate substantial value for our clients’ portfolios."
So, where are the biggest inefficiencies in markets today? And what opportunities are they presenting?
To find out, we have the great fortune to speak today with highly respected money manager Dave Iben, Chief Investment Officer, Managing Member, Founder, and Chairman of the Board of Kopernik Global Investors, as well as Portfolio Manager of its main funds. Kopernik manages $billions in client capital.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com -
The drivers that support economic growth and earnings are slowing down. And valuations are stretched to record extremes.
For these reasons, portfolio manager Lance Roberts is turning significantly more tactically bearish on stock this year.
This doesn't necessarily mean he expects an imminent crash.
But it does mean he expects stocks to put in a much more disappointing year than investors have become used to after back-to-back 20%+ annual returns.
We discuss his outlook in depth, as well as the new payrolls data, rising bond yields, why credit spreads remain so tight, and his firm's latest trades.
For everything that mattered to markets, watch this new Weekly Market Recap.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com -
Today's guest has long warned that the bond market will one day take the printing press away from the Federal Reserve.
Well, the Fed has now CUT its policy rate by 100 basis points since
September, but the yield on the 10 year US Treasury note is now 100 basis point HIGHER since then.
This has flummoxed many investors and mortgage holders. Yet it begs the question: is this the start of a bond market revolt against the Fed?
To find out, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program analyst Bill Fleckenstein of Fleckenstein Capital.
Bill predicts the bond market will keep falling until stocks tank.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com -
Well it's a new year. And in just two weeks, a new American Administration as well.What kind of impact will President-Elect Trump's policies likely have on natural resources, the "real things" that power the global economy?To find out, we're fortunate to be joined by Rick Rule, one of the world's greatest living natural resource investors, and a heck of a gentleman, to boot.Rick sees a lot of opportunity for investors ahead in oil & gas.But the real deals right now are in the gold mining companies, which he reports are the most undervalued he's seen in his long career.
Here are the links to Rick's events mentioned in this discussion:
https://thoughtfulmoney.com/rulebootcamp
https://thoughtfulmoney.com/rulesyndicate
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