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In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the latest news on vaccines. The FDA reports that the Moderna vaccine is "highly effective" after examining the trial data. They are expected to give emergency approval by Friday. The Moderna vaccine is easier to handle than the Pfizer vaccine because it does not need to be stored at Antarctic temperatures. This will be key to supplying rural communities.
The US is likely to enter an accelerating recovery in 1Q + 2Q. How quickly is open to debate. The biggest economic danger maybe something unexpected politically after Biden steps into the White House. But if we're looking at something purely endogenous to the economy, I would say rising inflation rates along with an even more rapid rise in inflation expectations.
There is a renewed rise of the political right in Italy. Matteo Salvini's Lega party shows declining support, but that decline is being more than made up for by the rise of a new young leader, Giorgia Meloni (age 43), who is leader of The Brothers of Italy. Their motto: "God, family, and fatherland." It's now the third most popular party behind the center-left Democracy and Lega. Meloni is savvy, clever, and nuanced--unlike Salvini. She supports subsidizing a higher birthrate, using the Italian navy to intercept refuges, and denying birth citizenship to immigrants.
With avid fandom declining among teens and young adults, the pro sports world is redoubling its efforts to hook the next generation. Execs are hoping that sports betting will do the trick, along with more short-form videos and behind-the-scenes looks at the players.
Political pressure to cancel student debt is mounting—and so are the tensions surrounding the idea. Economists, activists, and policymakers are deeply divided over debt forgiveness and disagree on whether it would help or hurt the economy.
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In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I replay my recent interview with JT Taylor, Hedgeye's Chief Political Strategist and Paul Glenchur, Hedgeye's Senior TMT Policy Analyst. With the election a few days away, the race for the White House and Congress is on track to be the most divisive and expensive in history. Joe Biden, while fading slightly in his lead over Donald Trump, remains decisively ahead. For Trump to barely squeak by in the Electoral College, he would need an incredible surge to win all of the states in which he is tied or the polls are close. In the Senate, we continue to view a Democratic majority by 1 or 2 seats. The Democrats are nearly certain to lose Alabama, but gain in Colorado, Arizona, in Maine. They need just one more win to break even.
*NOTE: Slides referenced in this podcast are made available with a subscription to the research product below.
**********The content featured here is a small part of Hedgeye’s Demography Unplugged, a game-changing market intelligence product brought to you by historian, demographer and best-selling author Neil Howe. Visit us to find out more and subscribe.
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In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the current state of the election. RCP has Biden holding a steady edge at 50% to 43%, and his betting odds are gradually improving at 55% to 44%. The NYT released a new report on Trump's finances claiming he pays minimal taxes and has millions of dollars in personally guaranteed debt. The story has three possible implications. Either: (a) Trump has not been a successful businessman; (b) Trump's tax avoidance has veered into tax evasion; or (C) the tax code's generosity to real-estate developers is grossly extravagant. It seems unlikely the report will have a major impact on the election, but it could sway swing voters who touted Trump's business success.
OECD's newest report is better than expected. The newest estimates on GDP were revised and show less damage than previously assumed. In June, world GDP was estimated to drop -6.0% but was revised to only -4.5%. The US had one of the biggest turn arounds. In June, US GDP was estimated to drop -7.3% but was revised to -3.8%.
Economic indicators remain positive. The Markit PMI flashes were released for September. Manu rose to 53.5, driven by strong factory activity. And Services fell slightly to 54.6 but still showing strong growth. The Kansas Fed Manu Index came in at 18 for Sept, while the Dallas Fed Manu Index came in at 13.6. Both readings point to strong regional growth.
Japan elects a new prime minister. Yoshihide Suga won the party election for prime minister with 70% of the vote. Suga is a close ally to Shinzo Abe and served as Abe's Chief Cabinet Secretary for nine years. He has promised to continue Abe's economic reforms. And he has declared four unique policy goals: fertility treatments, re-invigorating bureaucracy, creating a digital policy agency, and cutting the costs of mobile phones. The narrow scoop of these policies fit in with his image as a detail oriented technocrat.
Violence breaks out between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, both countries have fought for control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region between their borders. Though a ceasefire has been in place for over 20 years, the conflict has never been fixed. The new outbreak in fighting has brought other countries into the fray. Turkey has sent Syrian rebel militias to help Azerbaijan, while Greece and Russia have pledged support to Armenia.
Boomers are scoring lower on cognitive function tests than previous generations of Americans at the same age. Beginning with the Lost Generation, average age-adjusted cognition scores rose steadily across successive birth cohorts, but these results suggest the positive trend may be reversing.
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The content featured here is a small part of Hedgeye’s Demography Unplugged, a game-changing market intelligence product brought to you by historian, demographer and best-selling author Neil Howe. Visit us to find out more and subscribe. -
In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the Democratic National Convention. This week the DNC will run from Monday through Thursday night. The convention has stressed Biden's moderation. On Monday night, unusually, four prominent Republicans were to invited on stage to denounce Trump and endorse Biden. While the on-line "infomercial" format might fire-up the base, the lack of a live audience probably dampens the excitement for most Americans.
Still no progress on stimulus. The large $600 federal UI bonus terminated on the week ending July 25. My take? Many people can't afford to live on the unaugmented state benefit. They are either not bothering to pick them up or they are going back to work for less money. Going back to work may give an immediate boost to employment--which you can see in the Real-Time Population Survey for the last two weeks. But it is also--and perversely--going to reduce aggregate demand by pulling down DPI and act to reduce (a) the economic growth multiplier, (b) the investment accelerator, and (c) inflation pressure.
Biden chooses his VP. Last Friday, Joe Biden announced Senator Kamala Harris as his running-mate. Harris was a risk averse choice. She has been vetted by the media, she is comfortable on the national stage, and her ethnicity is a draw for both Asians and African-Americans. While the Senator brings charisma to Biden's campaign, the needless "identity politics" process by which Biden chose Harris was a turnoff for most Americans.
Economic indicators slow down. Retail sales MoM came in at +1.2% for July, below expectations of 1.9%. The growing number of C19 cases is believed to have kept shoppers home. Michigan Consumer Sentiment remained unchanged from June to July as consumers await a new stimulus bill. And the NAHB Housing Index hit a 22 year high, coming in at 78 for July.
US solidifies relations with Taiwan. The White House has finalized plans to sell Taiwan 66 new F-16 fighter jets. HHS Secretary Alex Azar also visited the island to meet with President Tsai Ing-wen. China has responded by conducting new military demonstrations and flying fighter jets across the Taiwan Strait median line.
Belarus embroiled in protests. Since President Lukashenko won reelection with 80% of the vote, massive demonstrations have gripped the country with accusations of election fraud. Hundreds of thousands have filled the streets calling for Lukashenko to step down. Putin has publicly declared Russia will invade Belarus if "western" protesters threaten the stability of the country. Should we brace for a repeat of the Ukraine invasion? This is definitely Putin's "near abroad."
A new study predicts that the world population will peak decades ahead of the UN forecast thanks to declining fertility rates. Instead of the year 2100, the study estimates the global population will peak in 2064 and that the elderly will also make up a larger share of the total than the U.N. projects.
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The content featured here is a small part of Hedgeye’s Demography Unplugged, a game-changing market intelligence product brought to you by historian, demographer and best-selling author Neil Howe. Visit us to find out more and subscribe.
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In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the possibility of future inflation. There are already multiple warnings signs that inflation is coming. The US dollar continues to fall as industrial metals and agricultural prices rise. Gold is up 18% since early May. And since mid-May, M2 is up YoY 23%. We've never seen such rapid YoY growth in the money supply since we have data (that is, going back nearly to the Civil War). One possible exception came in 1944, at the peak of global war. IMO, if C19 gets milder and a generous stimulus passes, get ready for rising inflation. Granted, these are big if's.
Economic indicators remain mixed. The ISM Manf PMI came in at 54.2 for July, showing substantial growth. The Markit Services PMI came in at 49.6 for July, marking six straight months of contraction. Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell from 78.1 in June to 72.5 in July. And US GDP QoQ came in at -9.5% for Q2. That was significantly better than Europe's GDP readings in Q1, though the Eurozone is currently growing faster than the US.
Trump targets TikTok. Last Friday, President Trump announced TikTok (owned by the Chinese company ByteDance) would be banned in the US over national security concerns. By Sunday, Microsoft announced it was in talks to but the US part of the company. Trump has given the two companies until September 15 to make a deal.
Apple increases production in India. Foxconn, who produces Apple's products, has moved production of the IPhone 11 out of China and into India. This is the first time an Apple flagship product will be made outside of China. Apple is trying to diversify its production in advance of further deterioration in US relations with China.
Libyan civil war reaches a decisive moment. The Turkish backed Tripoli government is placing troops around the city of Sirte. Russian mercenaries, supporting the eastern government of General Haftar, currently hold the city and are constructing defenses. Egypt has declared that if Sirte falls to Tripoli, they will invade Libya to repel Turkish influence. Is war looming between Turkey and Egypt?
Neither party may accept the results of the 2020 election. As the 2020 election looms, Trump has repeated goaded liberals by refusing to say whether he will "accept" the results of the fall election. But a new report from the Transition Integrity Project says that the left may similarly reject the election results if Trump wins. With mail-in voting, results could take weeks to determine, and there is a significant chance that whoever looses will claim foul play. The only earlier parallel, suggests the report, may be the brokered election of 1876--after which the Democrats agreed to allow the Republican Rutherford B. Hayes to assume office only in return for putting an end to Reconstruction.
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The content featured here is a small part of Hedgeye’s Demography Unplugged, a game-changing market intelligence product brought to you by historian, demographer and best-selling author Neil Howe. Visit us to find out more and subscribe. -
In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss Trump's odds of victory. For the last few weeks, according to futures markets, Trump's odds of beating Biden have been in steep decline. Trump still faces steep odds. But last week he seemed to be making a comeback. Biden's advantage has eased from 23% down to 18%. While the media fiercely criticized his 4th of July speech, his patriotic take on America's past presidents and defense of statues at Mount Rushmore most likely left a good impression on most who listened.
Economic indicators start to show improvement. ISM released its US June PMIs, showing growth in all sectors. Manufacturing came in at 52.6, beating expectations of 49.6. Non-manufacturing came in at 57.1, crushing expectations of 50.1. Unemployment for June declined to 11.1% from 13.3% in May. For China in June, the Caixin manufacturing PMI was 51.2 and the services PMI was 58.4.
US and UK respond to Hong Kong security law. Last week China passed the controversial Hong Kong Security Act. The US Congress responded by passing legislation that would penalize foreign banks that do business with Chinese officials who undermine Hong Kong's autonomy. The bill was passed with unanimous consent by the House and Senate, and will most likely be signed by Trump. The UK has responded to China by announcing a pathway to UK citizenship for the 3 million Hong Kong residents.
Edouard Philippe resigns as Prime Minister. France's Prime Minister resigned on Friday as Macron attempts to shake up his cabinet. With growing unpopularity, Macron is trying to restart his government before the 2022 election.
Ethiopia threatens Egypt's water supply. Ethiopia is planning to complete it colossal hydropower dam on the Blue Nile. Egypt, downriver from the dam, relies almost exclusively on the Nile for freshwater. If Ethiopia starts filling the dam is built without an agreement between the countries, Egypt has threatened to bomb it.
COVID-19 sets back Americans' plans to retire. According to a new report, Millennials are more than twice as likely as Gen Xers or Boomers to have withdrawn (or plan to withdraw) money from their retirement savings due to the pandemic. But no generation reports feeling very financially secure: The median Millennial has only $23K in retirement savings. Even the median Xer has only $64K in retirement savings.
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The content featured here is a small part of Hedgeye’s Demography Unplugged, a game-changing market intelligence product brought to you by historian, demographer and best-selling author Neil Howe. Visit us to find out more and subscribe.
