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【聊了什么】 2024年美国大选刚刚落幕。四年一次的大选不再仅仅是公共政治实践的战场，也愈加变成个人心理的大型试炼场。在2016年开始的每次大选期间，约有60%到70%的美国人报告说他们的焦虑明显上升，有更多的恐惧感，更容易发怒和失眠。有超过四分之一的美国公民声称他们有了更多的压力应激行为，比如抽烟喝酒和情绪性暴食。 大选引发的精神压力也渗入了最私密的心理咨询室的空间——在美国大选期间，很多人进入到心理咨询室讨论大选对他们生活的影响。作为保持中立的咨询师和被政治影响的普通人，这样的双重身份也给心理咨询师带来了许多挑战。 本期小华和《北冥有鱼》播客的主播朝朝和卡其一起，一起畅聊当大选政治渗入私密的情感空间，我们该如何理解与应对。 【注：本集播客录制于大选前两天】 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 2:45 如何应对这一届选举的未知感 10:47 周围人对于选举的情绪反应 15:55 对美国政治的“后知后觉”： 政治与作为外国人的生活也息息相关 22:42 随着两极分化的逐渐严重，如何和与我们政治观点完全不同的人相处？ 37:40 对于基本事实的共识可以撑起我们与不同观念的人对话的空间吗？ 43:05 如何理解对于有移民创伤却依然支持反移民政策的人的立场 49:45 心理咨询的空间是一个可以让我们反思对于政治的情绪反应更深层的来源 54:15 来自同温层朋友的支持是应对选举焦虑和政治性抑郁的有力方法吗？ 57:46 咨询师如何在咨询中和来访讨论政治议题和看见来访情绪背后的压抑和脆弱 1:05:45 我们该如何应对选举焦虑和政治抑郁？ 1:14:05 面对选举结果可能会有的“信仰崩塌”，应该如何调整心态？ 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 北冥有鱼是一档心理学播客，主播是两个在美国的临床心理学家，每期从心理学的视角探索内心世界和不同领域观点的碰撞。
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【聊了什么】 在总统大选中，特朗普预计将获得312张选举人票，战胜了获得226张选举人票的哈里斯，将成为第47任美国总统。同时，共和党获得了参议院的控制权，大概率也会赢下众议院。 我们和看理想在选举日第二天的早上进行了一场直播，对结果进行了简单的初步分析。这期播客是这场直播的剪辑版。 本期节目由美轮美换和看理想联合制作，欢迎在看理想订阅《美国大选与世界转向》节目。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 00:58 本次大选结果有猜到吗？依据的是什么？ 06:20 身处美国当地，哪个时间点预示特朗普胜选？有这个节点吗？ 09:34 民主党的"崩盘"，是性别因素/阶层因素吗？ 16:00 本次大选，在美普通民众的情绪如何？气氛怎样？ 21:21 特朗普主义和特朗普是如何一步步走到今天的？特朗普与共和党，谁更有主导性？ 27:01 马斯克对特朗普竞选真有帮助吗？ 33:56 大选结果已出，那未来会如何：赴美更难？移民？战争走向？ 38:39 若"三权皆红"，未来四年的局势会风起云涌吗? 43:44 "历史的上升，是螺旋性的；历史的前进像钟摆，偶尔往左也偶尔往右" 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 【 What We Talked About】 In the presidential election, Trump is projected to win 312 electoral votes, defeating Harris who received 226 electoral votes, and will become the 47th President of the United States. Meanwhile, the Republican Party has gained control of the Senate and is likely to win the House of Representatives as well. We did a livestream with Vistopia the morning after Election Day, providing an initial analysis of the results. This podcast is an edited version of that livestream. This episode is co-produced by The American Roulette and Vistopia. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 00:58 Did you anticipate this election outcome? What was your reasoning? 06:20 From your perspective in the US, was there a defining moment that signaled Trump's victory? 09:34 Is the Democratic Party's collapse attributed to gender or class factors? 16:00 What's the current mood and atmosphere among average Americans following this election? 21:21 How did Trump and Trumpism evolve to where they are today? Who holds more influence - Trump or the Republican Party? 27:01 Has Musk's support made a real impact on Trump's campaign? 33:56 With the results now in, what lies ahead: Changes in US policies? Immigration? Global conflicts? 38:39 With potential Republican control of all three branches, how turbulent will the next four years be? 43:44 "History moves in spirals; like a pendulum, swinging sometimes left, sometimes right" 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 【拓展链接】 https://theamericanroulette.com/2020-election-trump-win-analysis/
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【聊了什么】 本期播客的主题是，如何像一个竞选专家一样看大选出票。 美国大选将在周二举行，周二晚上就开始出票。这期节目，我们来聊聊的唱票和出票过程，为什么有的州出票快，有的州出票慢，有的州先出支持民主党的票，有的州先出支持共和党的票，有的州会半夜扔出天量选票，有的州出票会像挤牙膏一样。外行看热闹，内行看门道，如何从出票的过程中早早就看出今年大选的走势，把握本次大选的动向。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 00:00:42 周六 Ann Selzer 的艾奥瓦民调的指导意义 00:21:39 如何看大选投票 00:25:47 佛罗里达 00:42:17 佐治亚 00:46:57 北卡 00:51:37 宾夕法尼亚 00:56:49 密歇根 01:01:14 威斯康星 01:05:59 新罕布什尔和弗吉尼亚 01:07:59 亚利桑那 01:15:22 内华达 01:27:15 在哪里看大选的实时播报 01:30:37 结语 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者 【 What We Talked About】 America heads to the polls this Tuesday. When the votes start rolling in, can you read the returns like a campaign pro, war room style? In this episode, we’ll talk about the vote-counting process: why do some states report results faster than others? What explains the “blue mirages” and “red mirages” in different jurisdictions? Why do certain states suddenly release a large number of votes in the middle of the night, and why others release results in a slow, steady trickle? For those who know what to look for, the vote-counting process reveals key insights into the election’s direction. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 00:00:42 How to understand Ann Selzer’s IA poll last Saturday 00:21:39 What to watch for on election night 00:25:47 Florida 00:42:17 Georgia 00:46:57 North Carolina 00:51:37 Pennsylvania 00:56:49 Michgan 01:01:14 Wisconsin 01:05:59 New Hampshire and Virginia 01:07:59 Arizona 01:15:22 Nevada 01:27:15 Where to watch latest update on election 01:30:37 Relax, it’s just another election 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast 【拓展链接】 https://theamericanroulette.com/2024-us-election-swing-states-overview/ https://theamericanroulette.com/ann-selzer-iowa-final-poll-harris-lead/ 王浩岚的微信公众号《岚目》https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/U9ZrOClRrgjj0nn1DX2FTg 端传媒实时更新 https://theinitium.com/article/2024-us-election-live-blog https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/ https://www.nytimes.com/article/election-2024-results-needle.html
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【聊了什么】 如果你刚刚开始关注大选，你的精神健康应该比美轮美换的几位主播要好一些。在大选前夕，我们帮你梳理了这场大选的关键时间点和重要议题：从拜登的意外退选到哈里斯的临危受命，从经济表现的党派差异到移民政策的困境，每个议题都折射出美国社会的深层分裂。 在摇摆州选情胶着、社会撕裂加剧的背景下，这场选举是否会重新定义美国政治？经济数据与民众感受之间的巨大鸿沟该如何弥合？移民政策的两难困境能否找到平衡点？当两党政治生态日益分化，社会撕裂愈发明显，美国的民主制度将面临怎样的挑战？ 【有奖竞猜】 大选进入倒计时，你对最终结果的预测是什么呢？填写表单告诉我们你认为谁将胜出，猜中即有机会参与抽奖，赢取网站会员，阅读我们对美国政治和选举的深度报道。若你能精准预测国会两院及摇摆州的结果，更可以跳过抽奖，直接获得美轮美换年度会员资格。 竞猜问卷 → https://forms.office.com/r/KC7ncPhMAf 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 00:01:12 考前突击：为什么我们需要关注这场选举 00:09:07 特朗普封口费案的来龙去脉 00:29:30 特朗普遭遇暗杀未遂事件的影响 00:34:12 拜登退选与民主党的权力交接 00:48:20 副总统候选人万斯和沃尔兹的选择 00:52:50 经济议题：通胀、就业与选民感受的复杂性 01:01:25 移民议题与社会分化 01:12:39 堕胎权之争：从罗伊诉韦德案到现在 01:19:16 这次大选对美国民主制度的影响 01:26:33 七大摇摆州的选情分析：从蓝墙到阳光带 01:37:40 计票规则解读：为何结果可能需要等待数天 01:40:05 国会选举展望：参众两院的微妙平衡 01:44:16 问答 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 小华：媒体人，美政观察者 Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者 主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。 【 What We Talked About】 For those who are just tuning into the 2024 election discourse, your mental health is probably much better than our hosts – who have been breathlessly tracking every development for the past year. As the election day approaches, we have distilled all of the pivotal moments and critical issues that have defined this madhouse of a cycle - from Biden’s unexpected withdrawal to Kamala’s ascension, from partisan narratives on the state of the economy and immigration. Each flashpoint illuminates the deepening chasm of American society. As the battleground state odds remain locked in a coin toss, we try to ponder the fundamental questions: will this election yet again reshape American politics? How to bridge the chasm between the escalating social divisions? Why do the economic indicators tell different stories to the two parties? And as the two-party ecosystem grows increasingly polarized and social fabric continues to fray, what trials await America's democratic institutions? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 00:01:12 Last-minute primer: why this election demands our attention 00:09:07 Trump hush money case: untangling the complex web 00:29:30 Implications of the attempted assassination on Trump 00:34:12 Biden's withdrawal and the democratic power transition 00:48:20 VP picks: a closer look at Vance and Walz 00:52:50 The economy: navigating inflation, employment, and voter sentiment 01:01:25 Immigration and social fractures: America's deepening divide 01:12:39 The abortion battle: from Roe v. Wade to present day 01:19:16 Impact on American democracy: examining institutional resilience 01:26:33 Battleground analysis: from the blue wall to the sun belt 01:37:40 Vote counting explained: why results may take a week 01:40:05 Congressional outlook: the delicate balance in both chambers 01:44:16 Q & A 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions.
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【聊了什么】 Lokin做客友台《不合时宜》，聊了本次大选中性别议题扮演的角色。 【有奖竞猜】 大选进入倒计时，你对最终结果的预测是什么呢？填写表单告诉我们你认为谁将胜出，猜中即有机会参与抽奖，赢取网站会员，阅读我们对美国政治和选举的深度报道。若你能精准预测国会两院及摇摆州的结果，更可以跳过抽奖，直接获得美轮美换年度会员资格。 竞猜问卷 → https://forms.office.com/r/KC7ncPhMAf 【支持我们】 如果喜欢《美轮美换》并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 不合时宜原文案 【主播的话】 11月5日，美国即将迎来四年一度的大选投票，民主党候选人哈里斯对阵共和党候选人特朗普。如若哈里斯当选，她将成为美国历史上第一位女性总统。 美国大选向来都有很多解读视角：种族的，阶级的，经济的，地缘的，等等。在今年的选战中，我们注意到，性别视角尤为受到关注。在当今主要西方国家的大选中，似乎很少看到其他例子，像美国这样，性别议题占据如此重要甚至是中心的位置。哈里斯作为一名女性+少数族裔的候选人，性别身份是她尤其重要的身份，为女性权益呼吁是她的旗舰政策之一，特别是捍卫美国女性的自主堕胎权。与之相对的特朗普+万斯搭档，在性别议题上劣迹斑斑，前者身陷多起性犯罪，后者则在诸多场合发表厌女言论。今年进入竞选的节奏以来，已经出现很多与性别有关的热点事件。从特朗普身陷"封口费"官司，到Taylor Swift关于"Childless Cat Lady"的署名。性别分野会是决定美国大选走向的关键因素吗？如何从性别的视角理解今年的美国大选？ 【本期主播】 王磬：微博@王磬 若含：微博@_R若含 【本期嘉宾】 Lokin: 《美轮美换》主播，美国法律从业者 *感谢蓝书屋对本集节目的特别支持 【本期剧透】 2:33 为什么要从性别视角探讨美国大选 11:57 为什么当今美国年轻男性更倾向共和党 18:22 性别成为大选中的突出议题：新现象还是历史的延续？ 24:45 泰勒·斯威夫特的表态及其对单身女性投票的影响 30:49 比较经济与性别因素在本次大选中的影响 35:33 美国历史上反女权的女性政治家 45:59 当今美国的社会制度与文化是否有利于哈里斯 52:25 哈里斯在社交媒体中的性别策略 56:46 从性别到种族因素，哈里斯能否打破双重壁垒？ 【"不合时宜全球成长计划"会员听众提问】 01:05:14 为什么堕胎权在美国格外重要？与其它地区对此话题的关注有什么差异？ 01:09:34 女性议题在本次大选中占了多大的权重 【相关阅读】 播客中提到的相关研究： Why Young Men and Women are Drifting Apart www.economist.com 【本期音乐】 片头：Kevin MacLeod - Sad Drunken Party 片尾：Kevin MacLeod - Study and Relax 【Logo设计】刘刘（ins: imjanuary) 【文字】含之 【后期制作】方改则 【互动方式】 小红书@不合时宜 微博@不合时宜TheWeirdo 商务合作可发邮件至[email protected]或微博私信 会员计划咨询可添加微信：hibuheshiyi2或发送邮件至[email protected]
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【聊了什么】 虚假信息和阴谋论是每个选举周期都绕不开的话题。在2024年大选期间，从特朗普在总统辩论中传播的“海地移民吃猫吃狗”谣言，到各类社交平台上层出不穷的不实信息，虚假信息的传播似乎达到了新的高度。 在这期节目中，我们邀请到专门从事中文事实核查工作的朋友，探讨在中文信息环境中如何应对选举虚假信息的挑战。我们将分析主要社交平台上的虚假信息传播现象，探究为什么第一代移民群体更容易成为目标受众，并提供了一些信息甄别建议。 《阴谋论、谎言与人工智能 右翼虚假信息如何反映2024年大选中的仇恨政治》报告链接：https://www.piyaoba.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024%E5%A4%A7%E9%80%89%E5%81%87%E6%96%B0%E9%97%BB%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A.pdf 【有奖竞猜】 大选进入倒计时，你对最终结果的预测是什么呢？填写表单告诉我们你认为谁将胜出，猜中即有机会参与抽奖，赢取网站会员，阅读我们对美国政治和选举的深度报道。若你能精准预测国会两院及摇摆州的结果，更可以跳过抽奖，直接获得美轮美换年度会员资格。 竞猜问卷 → https://forms.office.com/r/KC7ncPhMAf 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 00:02:24 事实核查工作的背景、日常流程和优先级判断 00:05:50 中文虚假信息传播渠道的变迁 00:12:53 2024大选中文假新闻的主要叙事方向 00:18:07 AI技术如何改变虚假信息传播方式 00:37:13 制造和传播虚假信息的不同动机 00:40:17 事实核查的意义是什么 00:50:02 如何识别虚假信息：一些建议 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 小华：媒体人，美政观察者 Jinxia：美国中文事实核查机构“辟谣吧”负责人 【 What We Talked About】 Misinformation and disinformation remain an unavoidable topic in every election cycle. During the 2024 election season, the spread of false information appears to have reached unprecedented levels — from Trump promoting the "eating dogs and cats" conspiracy during the presidential debate to the flood of misinformation across social media platforms. In this episode, we talk with a fact-checker specializing in Chinese-language content to explore how to tackle election misinformation in Chinese media spaces. We'll examine the spread of false information across major social platforms, investigate why first-generation immigrants are particularly susceptible to becoming targeted audiences, and share tips for distinguishing fact from fiction. Report: CONSPIRACY THEORIES, LIES, & A.I.: How right-wing disinformation in the Chinese American community reflect the politics of hate in the 2024 election https://caasf.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/CAA-Report-Conspiracy-Theories-Lies-and-AI-1.pdf 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 00:02:24 Understanding fact-checking: background, process, and priorities 00:05:50 Shifts in Chinese-language misinformation channels 00:12:53 Key narratives of Chinese misinformation in the 2024 election 00:18:07 AI's impact on misinformation dissemination 00:37:13 Understanding motivations behind misinformation 00:40:17 Why fact-checking matters 00:50:02 Spotting misinformation: a practical guide 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Jinxia: Program Manager of Digital Engagement at Chinese for Affirmative Action
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【聊了什么】 在美国大选最后冲刺阶段，地面动员正在上演着一场场关键战役。在摇摆州的街区中，无数拜票团队正在进行着最基层的选民动员——他们挨家挨户地敲门，努力说服更多支持者能够走出家门投票，或及时寄出自己的选票。 两位来自纽约的华人青年，选择走进关键摇摆州宾夕法尼亚，亲身参与这场草根民主的实践。这种面对面敲门拜访的动员方式，不仅是选举工作中的重要一环，更成为了解当代美国社会分裂现状、倾听不同群体声音的独特窗口。 在挨家挨户的拜票过程中，他们遇见了形形色色的美国选民：有态度坚定的特朗普支持者，也有思虑再三的中间派；有对政治充满热情的活跃分子，也有对选举冷眼旁观的工薪阶层…… 在本期播客中，这两位华人青年将分享他们在宾州大选一线的亲身经历，带我们走进一个真实的美国政治图景。 嘉宾提到的拜票组织： UNITE HERE Electoral Politics Working Families Party Seed the Vote 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 00:01:10 两位年轻的海外华人志愿者分享参与拜票的初衷 00:16:48 拜票组织的运作机制与培训流程 00:28:34 费城市区vs郊区：不同社区的政治氛围 00:33:22 一位黑人单亲妈妈的投票抉择 00:52:08 如何与不同立场的选民进行有效对话 01:08:34 家庭内部的政治分歧 01:37:27 如何加入拜票行动：主要组织与平台介绍 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 小华：媒体人，美政观察者 可达鸭：海外青年社群组织者、行动者 蕨菜：女权行动者 【 What We Talked About】 As the U.S. presidential election enters its final stretch, ground mobilization has emerged as a critical battleground. Across swing state neighborhoods, canvassing teams are executing grassroots voter outreach—knocking on doors, urging supporters to head to the polls, and ensuring mail-in ballots are submitted on time. Two young Chinese activists from New York ventured into the key battleground state of Pennsylvania to immerse themselves in this exercise of grassroots democracy. Their door-to-door canvassing experience offers more than just insights into campaign operations—it provides a unique window into America's social divisions and amplifies voices from across the political spectrum. Throughout their canvassing journey, they encountered the full spectrum of American voters: unwavering Trump supporters, thoughtful moderates weighing their options, passionate political activists, and working-class citizens disconnected from the political process. In this episode, these two young activists share their frontline experiences from Pennsylvania, offering a glimpse into the American political landscape. UNITE HERE Electoral Politics Working Families Party Seed the Vote 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 00:01:10 Two young overseas Chinese volunteers share their motivations for canvassing 00:16:48 How canvassing organizations operate and their training processes 00:28:34 Philadelphia urban vs suburban areas: Political atmosphere in different communities 00:33:22 A Black single mother's voting decision 00:52:08 How to have effective dialogues with voters of different political stances 01:08:34 Political differences within families 01:37:27 How to join canvassing efforts: Introduction to major organizations and platforms 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Psyduck: Community organizer and activist for overseas youth groups Bracken: Feminist activist
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【聊了什么】 大选进入冲刺阶段，选举民调再次成为焦点。然而，过去几次选举中民调的频繁失准，让人不禁质疑：我们还能相信民调吗？在这期节目中，我们深入探讨了民调的方方面面，从民调的制作过程，到比较全国民调和摇摆州民调的可靠性。我们分析了近年来民调越来越不准的原因，探讨了2024年民调的新变化，并且分析了内部民调的准确性。 当然，今年民调到底准不准，要到11月5日之后才能见分晓了。 美轮美换的网站上也推出了对最新民调、民调均值、选举预测的每日追踪，欢迎访问网站，并订阅成为免费或付费会员。 https://theamericanroulette.com/us-election-2024-latest-polls-news-harris-trump/ 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 00:01:00 各位主播看民调的姿势 00:04:51 民调是怎么做出来的？ 00:13:40 为什么美国还在用固定电话做民调？ 00:17:48 为什么近年的民调会不准？ 00:26:40 2024年民调做了什么调整？ 00:32:58 为什么做民调这么难？ 00:41:19 今年的民调会高估或低估特朗普吗？ 00:44:48 摇摆州民调会更靠谱吗？ 00:48:45 内部民调靠谱吗？ 00:52:50 民主党和共和党对民调不同的反应 1:04:10 选举预测模型靠谱吗？ 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 本期的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者 主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。 【 What We Talked About】 With the election in its final stretch, polls are once again in the spotlight. But after a string of high-profile misses in recent elections, many are asking: can we still trust the polls? In this episode, we dive deep into the world of political polling, examining everything from how polls are conducted to the reliability of national vs. swing state polls. We explore why polls have become less accurate in recent years, what changes pollsters are making for 2024, and whether internal campaign polls offer any better insight. Of course, the true test of this year's polls won't come until after Election Day on November 5th. Join us for a critical look at the state of political polling in America today. The American Roulette website has launched daily tracking of the latest polls, poll averages, and election predictions. Visit our site and consider becoming a free or paid subscriber for access to these insights. https://theamericanroulette.com/us-election-2024-latest-polls-news-harris-trump/ 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 00:01:00 The hosts' approach to interpreting polls 00:04:51 The mechanics of polling: How are they conducted? 00:13:40 Landlines in modern polling: Why do they persist? 00:17:48 Unpacking recent poll inaccuracies 00:26:40 Polling in 2024: Key adjustments and changes 00:32:58 The challenges of accurate polling 00:41:19 Trump and the polls: Potential for over or underestimation? 00:44:48 Swing state polls: A more reliable indicator? 00:48:45 Internal polls: Trustworthy or misleading? 00:52:50 Partisan responses to polling: Democrats vs. Republicans 1:04:10 Election prediction models: How reliable are they? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions. 【拓展链接】 https://theamericanroulette.com/us-election-2024-latest-polls-news-harris-trump/ https://www.nytimes.com/by/nate-cohn
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【聊了什么】 2024 年美国大选的最后一场辩论（如果特朗普之后不变卦的话），也是副总统候选人蒂姆·沃尔兹和 J.D. 万斯的唯一一场辩论，美国东部时间 10 月 1 日晚 9 点在 CBS 的纽约市演播室举行。 本期播客中，我们回顾了共和党副总统候选人J.D.万斯与民主党副总统候选人蒂姆·沃尔兹之间的辩论。我们从辩论的总体观感出发，探讨公众反应与舆论评价之间的差异，并审视这场辩论在多大程度上聚焦于实质性的政策讨论。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 00:46 辩论总体观感 06:30 舆论和民众对辩论观感的差异 13:09 这是一场关注政策的辩论吗 17:21 这是万斯成为MAGA接班人的里程碑之战吗？ 20:05 特朗普拯救了奥巴马医保？ 24:28 极化环境下两党如何争取摇摆选民 28:03 万斯在堕胎问题上的回答 32:03 特朗普的民粹主义是如何征服共和党的 34:23 万斯的形象为何如此负面 38:33 两位副总统候选人辩论中的亮点 41:12 大选最后冲刺阶段的展望 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者 主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。 【 What We Talked About】 The final debate of the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle (barring any last-minute changes from Trump) took place on October 1st at 9 PM Eastern Time. Held in CBS's New York City studio, this marked the sole face-off between vice presidential candidates Tim Walz and J.D. Vance. In this episode, we dissected the debate between Republican VP nominee J.D. Vance and his Democratic counterpart, Tim Walz. We start by sharing our overall impressions of the event, then delve into the disparity between public reaction and media commentary. A key focus of our discussion is how much the candidates engaged in substantive policy debate versus political rhetoric. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 00:46 Overall impressions of the debate 06:30 Gap between public reaction and media narrative of the debate 13:09 Was this truly a policy-focused debate? 17:21 Is this Vance's defining moment as a potential MAGA heir? 20:05 Did Trump inadvertently save the Obamacare? 24:28 Courting swing voters in a polarized political landscape 28:03 Vance's stance on the abortion issue 32:03 How Trump's populism reshaped the GOP 34:23 Unpacking Vance's negative public image 38:33 Key moments from both VP candidates during the debate 41:12 Final stretch: What to expect as Election Day approaches 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions.
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【聊了什么】 近年来，硅谷这个传统的民主党堡垒正悄然发生变化。科技界的“右转”现象，以及马斯克和Marc Andreessen等大佬对特朗普的公开支持，似乎预示着一场政治地震。这是否反映了科技界对主流社会长期“敌意”的反弹？ 在这期节目里，我们探讨了硅谷在即将到来的大选中的政治取向，AI革命下科技界政治光谱的变迁，以及源自科技圈的新兴政治话语及其在网络上的传播。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 03:25 AI的浪潮引发政治语言的变革 08:17 回顾这几个月最近硅谷发生的“大佬右转，支持川普”的情况 13:27 Marc Andreessen和a16z对特朗普的公开支持，以及他的《科技乐观主义宣言》背后说了什么 21:00 华盛顿和硅谷之间撕裂从2016年开始不断加大 31:49 e/acc (有效加速主义）是什么？以及有哪些硅谷“cults”出现了？ 40:40 什么是Marc Andreessen和Ben Horowitz的“The Little tech agenda (小型科技议程)”？他们如何看待AI 监管？ 58:10 简析Peter Thiel对于特朗普的支持，以及他和JD Vance之间的历史 01:04:10 简析马斯克对于特朗普的公开支持 01:13:50 扎克伯格最近的态度：没有表态但是... 01:28:00 科技届的在公众面前的形象如何在2016年之后逐渐“崩坏”？ 01:33:10 哈里斯和加州湾区的关系，以及科技圈对哈里斯的支持网“VC for Kamala” 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 本期的主播和嘉宾： 小华：媒体人，美政观察者 曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者 Afra: 在湾区生活工作的科技从业者 一闻：商业记者，曾驻旧金山报道科技行业 主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。 【 What We Talked About】 In recent years, Silicon Valley, traditionally a Democratic stronghold, has been undergoing subtle changes. The tech industry's "right turn" and public support for Trump from prominent figures like Elon Musk and Marc Andreessen seem to herald a political earthquake. Does this reflect a backlash from the tech world against long-standing "hostility" from mainstream society? In this episode, we explore Silicon Valley's political leanings in the upcoming election, the shifts in the tech industry's political spectrum amidst the AI revolution, and the emergence and spread of new political language originating from the tech sphere. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 03:25 How AI is transforming political language 08:17 Recent "rightward shift" of Silicon Valley leaders supporting Trump 13:27 Marc Andreessen and a16z's public support for Trump, and what his "Techno-Optimist Manifesto" reveals 21:00 The widening rift between Washington and Silicon Valley since 2016 31:49 What is e/acc (effective accelerationism)? And what Silicon Valley "cults" have emerged? 40:40 What is Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz's "Little Tech Agenda"? Their views on AI regulation 58:10 Brief analysis of Peter Thiel's support for Trump and his historical connection with J.D. Vance 01:04:10 Brief analysis of Elon Musk's public endorsement of Trump 01:13:50 Mark Zuckerberg's recent attitude: No statement, but... 01:28:00 How has the tech industry's public image gradually "collapsed" after 2016? 01:33:10 Kamala Harris's relationship with the Bay Area, and the tech circle's support network "VC for Kamala" 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School Afra: Tech professional living and working in the Bay Area 一闻（Yiwen）：Business reporter, with previous experience covering the tech sector while based in San Francisco The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions. 【拓展链接】 Key Issues in the 2024 United States Presidential Election, https://fletcher.tufts.edu/news-events/news/key-issues-2024-united-states-presidential-election The Little Tech Agenda, https://a16z.com/the-little-tech-agenda/ The Techno-Optimist Manifesto, https://a16z.com/the-techno-optimist-manifesto/ VCs for Kamala, https://www.vcsforkamala.org/
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【聊了什么】 这个大选周期的第二场总统辩论、哈里斯与特朗普的首场正面交锋，于美国东部时间9月10日晚9点在费城的国家宪法中心举行。这场辩论，拉开了2024年大选最后的冲刺阶段。我们在辩论当晚在线上直播录制了本期节目，对双方的表现进行了点评。 因为技术原因，录音质量不够理想，烦请见谅。 本期节目由美轮美换和看理想联合制作，欢迎在看理想订阅《美国大选与世界转向》节目。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 00:57 辩论总体印象：主播认为谁赢了？辩论输赢会如何影响选情？ 11:52 堕胎问题：对民主党有利的议题 19:17 辩论主持人的事实核查 21:44 特朗普对哈里斯的人身攻击 22:37 经济问题：双方都有经济学教授背书？ 27:34 移民问题上双方的攻防 33:44 特朗普回避1月6号国会山暴乱问题 40:55 为何特朗普称呼塔利班头子稍显“亲密”？ 48:06 泰勒·斯威夫特公开支持哈里斯，会有什么影响吗？ 50:02 特朗普VS哈里斯 与 2016年特朗普VS希拉里，有何可比性？ 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者 【 What We Talked About】 The second presidential debate of this election cycle, and the first face off between Harris and Trump, took place at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia at 9 PM Eastern Time on September 10th. This debate marks the beginning of the final sprint for the 2024 election. We recorded this episode live online on the night of the debate, providing commentary on both candidates' performances. Due to technical issues, the audio quality is not ideal. We apologize for any inconvenience. This program is jointly produced by The American Roulette and Vistopia. Subscribe to "The U.S. Election and Global Shifts" program on Vistopia for more insights. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 00:57 Overall debate impression: Who won? How will the debate outcome affect the race? 11:52 Abortion: A favorable topic for Kamala Harris 19:17 Fact-checking by the debate moderators 21:44 Trump's personal attacks on Harris 22:37 Economic issues: Both sides backed by economics professors? 27:34 The exchange on immigration issues 33:44 Trump's avoidance of the January 6th Capitol riot question 40:55 Why did Trump address the Taliban leader in a seemingly "intimate" manner? 48:06 Taylor Swift's public endorsement of Harris: What impact might it have? 50:02 Trump vs. Harris compared to Trump vs. Hillary in 2016: What are the parallels? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School
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【聊了什么】 民主党全国代表大会在8月19日到22日于芝加哥联合中心“胜利召开”。在本期播客中，我们和嘉宾向杨讨论了党代会的整体氛围，对整个大会进行了回顾，并和上个月共和党的大会做对比。我们也分析了哈里斯在演讲和竞选中的策略选择，并展望了未来两个月选举中可能出现的变数。 本期节目由美轮美换和看理想联合制作，欢迎在看理想订阅《美国大选与世界转向》节目。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 04:01 党代会气氛如何？民主党对危机管理格外重视？ 08:48 巴以问题在党代会中被淡化 17:11 美国党代会逐渐远离“开放”，靠近模范化？ 23:04 围绕特朗普展开的共和党党代会，前领导人都未出席 31:24 共和党邀请众多工人代表、劳工领袖参会 36:38 演讲顺序，有按照“黄金时间”规划吗？ 43:13 党代会对两党支持率有什么影响 48:24 部分民调预测哈里斯领先于特朗普，该如何看待？ 0:59:10 党代会上，哈里斯更多喊口号少提具体政策，是一种策略吗？ 1:18:00 接下来，决定大选走向的最大变数是什么？特朗普犯错还是哈里斯犯错？ 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者 向杨：芝加哥大学社会学博士候选人，b站up“向杨Alan君” 【 What We Talked About】 The Democratic National Convention was held at the United Center in Chicago from August 19 to 22. In this episode, we sit down with our guest, Xiang Yang, to unpack the convention's vibe, key moments, and how it stacked up against the RNC last month. We also analyze Harris's strategic choices in her acceptance speech and her campaign, and forecast the potential game-changers in the final stretch to Election Day. This program is jointly produced by The American Roulette and Vistopia. Subscribe to "The U.S. Election and Global Shifts" program on Vistopia for more insights. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 04:01 What's the vibe at the convention? Is the Democratic Party paying extra attention to crisis management? 08:48 The Israel-Palestine issue downplayed at the convention 17:11 Are U.S. party conventions moving away from "openness" and towards normalization? 23:04 RNC centered around Trump, with former leaders absent 31:24 RNC invited worker representatives and labor leaders to the convention 36:38 Is there a "prime time" strategy for the speech order? 43:13 How do the conventions impact the approval ratings of both parties? 48:24 Some polls show Harris leading Trump - how should we interpret this? 59:10 Harris focuses more on slogans and less on specific policies - is this a strategy? 1:18:00 What's the biggest wildcard - a Trump misstep or a Harris blunder? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School 向杨：PhD candidate in Sociology at the University of Chicago, Bilibili creator “向杨Alan君” 【拓展链接】 向杨Alan君 https://space.bilibili.com/495979610/
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【聊了什么】 拜登退选并宣布支持哈里斯之后的最初几周，哈里斯打出了梦幻开局。8月6日，哈里斯选择明尼苏达州的州长蒂姆·沃尔兹（Tim Walz）为自己的竞选搭档。我们会在本期节目中盘点哈里斯的开场，副手的选择，以及特朗普的反应。 本期播客录制与美国东部时间8月6日晚间。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 00:01:15 过去一个月的感受 00:03:00 哈里斯成为民主党总统候选人后的党内团结和士气高涨 00:15:32 哈里斯的好感度上升及其原因 00:18:00 万斯好感度和特朗普的绑定 00:23:06 拜登/哈里斯的竞选团队 00:25:58 民主党选民政治联盟可能的变化和挑战 00:28:20 哈里斯竞选策略和政策立场的转变 00:32:32 哈里斯选择蒂姆·沃尔兹作为副总统候选人以及没有选别人的原因 00:35:38 北卡州长库珀主动高风亮节 00:39:21 宾州州长夏普罗最终出局 00:45:30 沃尔兹如何成为左派的最爱 01:03:25 沃尔兹的竞选能力怎样 01:07:45 民主党给共和党贴上怪异（Weird）标签的策略能否奏效 01:10:13 特朗普对哈里斯的种族主义攻击 01:17:23 特朗普竞选策略的变化 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 小华：媒体人，美政观察者 【 What We Talked About】 Following Biden's withdrawal and endorsement, Harris launched her campaign with remarkable momentum. On August 6th, she tapped Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. In this episode, we'll analyze Harris's campaign kickoff, the veepstakes, and Trump's response. This podcast was recorded on August 6th at 8 PM Eastern. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 00:01:15 Reflecting on the past month 00:03:00 Democratic Party unity and surge in morale post-Harris nomination 00:15:32 Understanding Harris's rising favorability ratings 00:18:00 Vance's approval tied to Trump's fortunes 00:23:06 Breakdown of the Biden/Harris campaign team 00:25:58 Shifts and challenges in the Democratic voter coalition 00:28:20 Evolution of Harris's campaign strategy and policy stances 00:32:32 Unpacking Harris's VP pick: Why Walz, why not others 00:35:38 Governor Cooper's (NC) strategic withdrawal 00:39:21 Governor Shapiro's (PA) exit from VP contention 00:45:30 Walz's ascent as a progressive favorite 01:03:25 Assessing Walz's campaign chops 01:07:45 Viability of the Dems' "weird" strategy 01:10:13 Examining Trump's racist attacks on Harris 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 【拓展链接】 定义卡玛拉·哈里斯 https://theamericanroulette.com/defining-kamala-harris/ 两集新播客和三个梗🥥🌴 https://theamericanroulette.com/meme-saves-america-kamala-harris-brat/
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【聊了什么】 2024年7月21日美国东部时间下午1:46，美国总统拜登在社交媒体上发表声明，宣布退出2024年美国总统竞选。这一事件不仅彻底改变了整个大选的局势，更有可能深远影响美国的命运。 我们紧急录制了新一期播客，讨论了拜登退选的原因及其影响，分析了潜在接班人哈里斯的优势和劣势以及她可能的竞选策略，并展望了并不怎么光明的未来。 本期播客录制于美国东部时间7月21日晚间。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 00:00:41 民主党高层如何通过压力让拜登退选 00:05:57 民主党新候选人产生的流程 00:11:52 各州选票截止日期和民主党大会召开时间带来的挑战 00:15:10 换人后如何从流程上增加哈里斯（或其他候选人）的合法性 00:19:34 民主党对哈里斯支持的不同态度 00:24:08 民主党换人是一种自我实现的预言 00:25:50 哈里斯的优势和劣势 00:27:27 拜登退选本人和民主党精英的都有责任 00:31:35 民主党国会成员要求拜登退选的考量 00:34:37 拜登为何无法扭转竞选危机 00:40:13 哈里斯给选举带来的变数 00:44:00 哈里斯需要尽快定义自己的形象 00:49:29 哈里斯的潜在副总统人选 01:02:30 哈里斯的动员和选举策略 01:09:45 极化环境下总统选举对参议院和众议院选情的影响 01:14:25 特朗普获胜、共和党控制两院的后果 01:17:04 民主党对特朗普获胜的恐惧 01:19:56 拜登接下来还能做什么？ 01:25:35 拜登退选打开的潘多拉魔盒 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 寄馀生：比较政治爱好者 【 What We Talked About】 On July 21, 2024, at 1:46 PM Eastern Time, President Joe Biden announced on X that he has decided to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race. This development has not only dramatically reshaped the entire election landscape but also holds significant implications for the future of the United States. We recorded an urgent podcast episode to discuss this event. We examined the reasons behind Biden's decision and its potential impacts. We also delved into the strengths and weaknesses of potential successor Kamala Harris, her possible campaign strategies, and the uncertain future that lies ahead. This episode was recorded on the evening of July 21, Eastern Time. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 00:00:41 How Democratic leaders pressured Biden to withdraw 00:05:57 The process of selecting a new Democratic nominee 00:11:52 Challenges posed by state ballot deadlines and the timing of the Democratic National Convention 00:15:10 Enhancing the legitimacy of Harris (or another candidate) through procedural changes 00:19:34 Varied attitudes within the Democratic Party towards supporting Harris 00:24:08 The self-fulfilling prophecy of the Democratic Party's candidate switch 00:25:50 Harris's strengths and weaknesses 00:27:27 Responsibility of Biden and Democratic elites in his withdrawal 00:31:35 Calculations of Democratic Congress members in urging Biden to step down 00:34:37 Why Biden couldn't reverse his campaign crisis 00:40:13 The uncertainties Harris brings to the election 00:44:00 The need for Harris to quickly define her own image 00:49:29 Potential VPl picks for Harris 01:02:30 Harris's mobilization and campaign strategies 01:09:45 The impact of the polarized environment on Senate and House races during the presidential election 01:14:25 Consequences of a Trump victory and Republican control of both chambers 01:17:04 Democratic fears of a Trump win 01:19:56 What Biden can still do moving forward 01:25:35 The Pandora's box opened by Biden's withdrawal 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 寄馀生(Ji Yusheng): Comparative politics enthusiast 【拓展链接】 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/21/us/politics/biden-withdrawal-timeline.html https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/07/trump-campain-election-2024-susie-wiles-chris-lacivita/678806/
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【聊了什么】 在特朗普枪击事件后，共和党全国大会在威斯康星州密尔沃基召开。整个共和党团结在特朗普身后，已完全成为特朗普的党。特朗普还选择了来自俄亥俄州的参议员JD Vance作为副总统候选人。 在播客的开头，我们也回顾了特朗普枪击事件对特朗普和拜登双方的后续影响。本期播客录制于美国东部时间2024年7月19日晚间，录制时拜登尚未退选。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 00:01:07 特朗普枪击和共和党全国大会并没有减轻拜登退选的压力 00:24:45 共和党开了一场团结的大会 00:27:43 黑莉对特朗普的背书能帮到特朗普吗？ 00:30:19 特朗普的副总统选择——万斯 00:41:53 硅谷部分金主对特朗普和万斯的支持 00:48:59 卡车司机工会主席参加共和党大会 00:49:21 共和党转型成为“大帐篷”党？ 00:53:05 共和党党纲的变化 00:58:32 《2025计划》 1:01:50 特朗普的加冕和一波三折的演讲 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 小华：媒体人，美政观察者 【 What We Talked About】 After the Trump shooting, the Republican National Convention was held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The entire Republican Party rallied behind Trump, clearly showing it has become his party. Trump also chose Republican Senator from Ohio, JD Vance, as his vice-presidential candidate. At the beginning of the podcast, we reviewed the impact of the Trump shooting for both Trump and Biden. This episode was recorded on the evening of July 19, 2024, Eastern Time, and at the time of recording, Biden had not yet withdrawn from the race. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 00:01:07 The Trump shooting and the Republican National Convention didn't ease the pressure on Biden to withdraw 00:24:45 Republicans held a unified convention 00:27:43 Can Haley's endorsement help Trump? 00:30:19 Trump's VP pick: JD Vance 00:41:53 Support from Silicon Valley donors for Trump and Vance 00:48:59 Teamsters president attends the Republican convention 00:49:21 Is the GOP transforming into a "Big Tent" party? 00:53:05 Changes in the Republican Party’s platform 00:58:32 Project 2025 01:01:50 Trump's coronation and his tumultuous speech 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 【拓展链接】 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/19/us/politics/biden-defiance.html
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【聊了什么】 7月13日，前总统特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州巴特勒举行集会时，现场发生枪击案，特朗普右耳上部被击中。枪手在现场被特勤局击毙，枪击造成一名现场观众死亡。目前枪击案正被作为对特朗普的暗杀未遂进行调查。 我们在事件后第一时间录制了一起播客，对此事件及其影响进行了分析。我们还对历史上发生的针对美国总统的暴力事件进行了回顾。 本期播客录制于美国东部时间2024年7月14日下午，播客录制后事件可能会有新的发展。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 00:00:24 枪击事件回顾 00:01:18 特朗普遭刺杀未遂对选情的影响 00:05:58 美国总统和总统候选人是世界上风险最高的职位 00:08:57 四年前和八年前民调的偏差 00:10:17 特朗普遭刺杀未遂让共和党空前团结 00:11:43 党代会引发的民调上扬 00:15:38 归根结底还在于摇摆选民 00:16:36 刺杀未遂重新定义特朗普的竞选形象 00:20:59 事件后续发展和两党反应相关 00:26:46 事件减轻了拜登被要求退选的压力 00:28:40 拜登团队和奥巴马团队的嫌隙 00:35:37 共和党和保守派对此事的反应和叙事 00:39:01 政治暗杀事件在美国历史上频频发生 00:46:13 对特朗普副总统人选的影响 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 【 What We Talked About】 On July 13, former President Trump was shot during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. He sustained an injury to his upper right ear. The gunman was neutralized by Secret Service agents at the scene. The incident also resulted in the death of one rally attendee. Authorities are currently investigating the shooting as an attempted assassination of the former president. We recorded this podcast shortly after the event to provide a timely analysis of the incident and its potential implications. Additionally, we offer a historical perspective by reviewing past incidents of violence against U.S. presidents and presidential candidates. This episode was recorded on the afternoon of July 14, 2024, Eastern Time. The situation may have evolved since the recording of this episode. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 00:00:24 Overview of the shooting at Trump rally 00:01:18 How the assassination attempt affects Trump's campaign 00:05:58 U.S. Presidents and candidates face world's highest security risks 00:08:57 Analyzing polls from 4 and 8 years ago 00:10:17 GOP rallies behind Trump following assassination attempt 00:11:43 Post-convention bounce in the polls 00:15:38 Swing voters remain the deciding factor 00:16:36 Assassination attempt reshapes Trump's campaign narrative 00:20:59 Responses from Democrats and Republicans 00:26:46 Pressure on Biden to drop out eases after the incident 00:28:40 Friction between Biden and Obama camps 00:35:37 How Republicans and conservatives frame the incident 00:39:01 A look at political assassination attempts throughout U.S. history 00:46:13 Potential impact on Trump's VP pick 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 【拓展链接】 特朗普因遇刺“稳了”？学者：可以参考43年前的里根遇刺 https://ishare.ifeng.com/c/s/v004jQUyxY7TELtgeS-_5Kxqq0oX4RSJw86rpRB7xUGnC--KQ__?spss=np&channelId=&aman=a1afdbD0d1Ebb4dd3cTe87Vdd4k25be219W4d5wdeb&gud=54a5958657 019 | 灾难性的辩论之后，拜登输定了吗？Can Biden Survive the Disastrous Debate? https://podcast.theamericanroulette.com/episodes/presidential-debate-biden-replacement
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【聊了什么】 2022年6月，美国最高法院推翻了维持了半个世纪的联邦宪法保障女性堕胎权的里程碑式判决——罗诉韦德案（Roe v. Wade）。取而代之的是道布斯案（Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization），声称将堕胎权问题归还各州处理。这一决定引发了全国范围内的激烈争议，持续至今。 在本期播客中，我们将深入分析过去两年各州议会在堕胎权立法和司法审查上的激烈博弈，探讨堕胎权在全国范围内的可及性危机，回顾联邦法院在堕胎权相关议题上作出的若干重要判决，并展望堕胎权在即将到来的2024年大选中可能发挥的作用。 本期播客最初录制于5月19日，并在7月3日根据最高法院最新判决进行了补充录制。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 00:02:45 堕胎问题的“州权”和“反扑” 00:04:09 各州的堕胎相关新立法 00:06:39 德州极端堕胎法造成医疗危机后民主党擦屁股 00:09:41 为何各州反堕胎立法漏洞频出 00:14:51 州最高法院引人瞩目的堕胎判决和后果 00:18:37 亚利桑那州高院反堕胎判决是如何起到反效果的 00:22:46 堕胎权公投和选举：“仁义不施而攻守之势异” 00:29:26 堕胎权在全国的可及性危机 00:35:38 联邦最高法院持续介入堕胎权问题 00:36:18 米非司酮案：保守派法官削弱行政部门 00:49:43 紧急堕胎医疗与“医生的良心” 00:56:33 古老的Comstock法案与今天的堕胎权 01:05:04 堕胎权被推翻会引发其他“隐私权”重审吗 01:14:06 美国和其他国家的堕胎权发展史大相径庭 01:21:39 特朗普摇摆不定的堕胎权立场 01:27:16 全国堕胎权禁令和堕胎权与大选的未来 01:36:16 高院在米非司酮案中支持FDA的前因后果 01:39:56 推翻“雪佛龙尊重”和堕胎权行政诉讼 01:47:56 高院未表态紧急堕胎医疗案中的实质问题 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成一名纽约诉讼律师 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 Nancy：普林斯顿大学政治学博士生，耶鲁法学院法律博士 【 What We Talked About】 In June of 2022, the United States Supreme Court overturned the milestone opinion that ensured women’s right to abortion in the federal Constitution for half a century – Roe v. Wade. Instead, the Dobbs opinion proclaimed to return the issue of abortion to the states. For the past two years, controversies surrounding abortion rights have only grown louder nationwide. This episode of the podcast analyzes the interplay between state legislative enactments and judicial review on the issue of abortion rights over the past two years, the national accessibility crisis of abortion rights, several decisions produced by federal courts on abortion-related issues, and the potential role of abortion rights in the upcoming 2024 elections. This episode was initially recorded on May 19th and supplemented on July 3rd following the latest Supreme Court decisions. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 00:02:45 “State rights” and “backlash” of the abortion question 00:04:09 New state legislations on abortion 00:06:39 Extreme abortion laws in Texas cause a medical crisis while Democrats try to save the day 00:09:41 Why are anti-abortion state laws full of loopholes 00:14:51 Eye-catching state supreme court abortion decisions and consequences 00:18:37 How the Arizona Supreme Court’s anti-abortion decision backfired 00:22:46 Abortion right on the ballot and in the elections: “When benevolence and righteousness are not practiced, the balance of attack and defense shall alter.” 00:29:26 National accessibility crisis of abortion rights 00:35:38 Federal Supreme Court continues to weigh in on abortion rights 00:36:18 Mifepristone case: conservative justices weaken the administrative state 00:49:43 EMTALA, emergency abortion care, and “a doctor’s conscience” 00:56:33 Ancient Comstock Act and today’s abortion rights 01:05:04 Will overturning abortion rights lead to a retrial of other “privacy rights”? 01:16:06 American abortion rights as an international anti-trend 01:21:39 Swinging abortion position of Trump 01:27:16 National abortion ban, and the future of abortion rights and the elections 01:36:16 How the Supreme Court supported the FDA in the mifepristone case 01:39:56 Overturning “Chevron deference” and administrative litigation of abortion rights 01:47:56 Supreme Court failed to substantively rule on the EMTALA abortion case 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin：American law student, New York litigator soon-to-be 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history Nancy：Princeton Politics PhD student, Yale Law School graduate 【拓展链接】 嘉宾推荐的论文： Roe Rage: Democratic Constitutionalism and Backlash https://law.yale.edu/sites/default/files/documents/pdf/Faculty/Siegel_RoeRageDemocraticConstitutionalismAndBacklash.pdf 推翻雪佛龙尊重的高院重磅判决： Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/loper-bright-enterprises-v-raimondo/ 一氧化二氮（笑气）与氮氧化物（大气污染物）： This is why the Supreme Court shouldn’t try to do the EPA’s job https://newrepublic.com/article/183285/supreme-court-chevron-gorsuch-nitrous-oxide 保护堕胎权能帮到拜登么？ Abortion rights win big in 2023 elections. Can it help Biden win too? https://podcast.theamericanroulette.com/episodes/minimidterm
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【聊了什么】 灾难性的辩论表现让拜登的年龄问题再次成为核心焦点。主流媒体和自由派精英纷纷呼吁民主党更换候选人。但是，临阵换将真的是更好的选择吗？ 在本期播客中，我们回顾了拜登和特朗普在2024年首场辩论中的表现，讨论了辩论结果如何影响选情，分析了更换候选人的利弊，以及如果拜登坚持不退，他和民主党是否还有翻盘的可能。 本期播客录制于6月29日。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划 众筹平台链接： Patreon 爱发电 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 00:00:53 拜登和特朗普的辩论表现回顾 00:08:06 政策从来不是辩论的重点 00:13:55 这场辩论对选情的影响 00:16:40 拜登和拜登团队的失误 00:20:01 关键还在于摇摆选民 00:22:24 拜登辩论策略的失误 00:24:56 辩论后的舆论反应 00:30:54 主流舆论要求换人的呼声和民主党高层力挺拜登 00:36:30 更换候选人的利弊 00:43:20 拜登作为候选人的合法性 00:47:30 谁能劝得动拜登 00:49:35 有人可以替换拜登吗？ 00:56:27 替换拜登的流程是怎样的？ 01:01:10 不负责任的预测 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者 小华：媒体人，美政观察者 【 What We Talked About】 Biden's disastrous debate performance has once again brought his age to the forefront of public concern. Mainstream media outlets and liberal elites are calling for the Democratic Party to replace their candidate. But is switching horses midstream really the better choice? In this episode, we reviewed Biden and Trump's performances in the first debate of 2024, discussed how the debate results might impact the election landscape, analyzed the pros and cons of replacing the candidate, and explored whether Biden and the Democratic Party still have a chance to turn things around if he refuses to step down. This episode was recorded on June 29th. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 00:00:53 Review of Biden and Trump's debate performances 00:08:06 Policy was never the focus of the debate 00:13:55 The debate's impact on the election landscape 00:16:40 Mistakes made by Biden and his team 00:20:01 The key still lies with swing voters 00:22:24 Flaws in Biden's debate strategy 00:24:56 Public reaction after the debate 00:30:54 Mainstream calls for candidate replacement and Democratic leadership's support for Biden 00:36:30 Pros and cons of replacing the candidate 00:43:20 Biden's legitimacy as a candidate 00:47:30 Who could persuade Biden to step down? 00:49:35 Is there anyone who could replace Biden? 00:56:27 What's the process for replacing Biden? 01:01:10 Update on our predictions 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 【拓展链接】 恐慌、哀嚎、换马拜登？民主党完蛋？——复盘第一次总统大选辩论后的过激反应 012 | 拜登老矣，尚能饭否 Is Biden Too Old to Run?
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【聊了什么】 特朗普选择副总统的过程被他办成了一场《飞黄腾达》，迷雾重重。这期节目录制于5月25日，但截至6月中旬，似乎也没有新的进展可以补充。一方面，特朗普确实将悬念拉满，另一方面，其实明面的牌早就摊得差不多了。除了特朗普的心思我们无法猜测，其他可以讨论的内容，你都可以在本期播客中听到。可以遇见，随着总统辩论和党代会的临近，我们距离谜底揭晓也不远了。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴】 02:00 什么时候开始挑副总统候选人 05:05 切尼搬家：为什么总统和副总统不能来自同一个州 08:10 选副总统的基本原则：平衡选票 10:05 平衡选票之拜登选贺锦丽（Kamala Harris） 11:42 贺锦丽（Kamala Harris）的亚裔背景为什么被忽视 14:58 平衡选票之特朗普选彭斯（Mike Pence） 18:32 特朗普看重的忠诚到底是指什么 26:38 忠诚对于追求特朗普政府内职务的人更重要 28:44 尼基·黑利（Nikki Haley） 30:16 马可·卢比奥（Marco Rubio） 33:05 对副总统的执政经验的要求 40:05 特朗普需要潜在的副总统候选人干什么 41:30 继续聊黑利（Nikki Haley） 43:06 埃莉斯·史蒂芬尼克（Elise Stefanik） 46:45 JD 万斯（JD Vance） 49:10 盛产副总统的参议院 50:48 卢比奥（Marco Rubio） 52:10 蒂姆·斯科特（Tim Scott） 54:33 汤姆·科顿（Tom Cotton） 01:01:53 凯蒂·布里特（Katie Britt） 01:02:58 本·卡森（Ben Carson） 01:04:21 卡丽·莱克（Kari Lake） 01:06:23 拉瓦斯瓦米（Vivek Ramaswamy） 01:08:42 道格·伯古姆（Doug Burgum） 01:11:14 克里斯蒂·诺姆（Kristi Noem） 01:18:38 莎拉·赫卡比·桑德斯（Sarah Huckabee Sanders） 01:20:12 关于今年的总统辩论 01:26:43 格雷格·阿博特（Greg Abbott） 01:30:44 拜伦·唐纳兹（Byron Donalds） 01:32:20 图尔西·加巴德（Tulsi Gabbard） 01:33:53 神棍一下特朗普会选谁 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者 【 What We Talked About】 This year, Trump's selection of a vice presidential candidate has turned into a real-life version of "The Apprentice," shrouded in mystery. We recorded this episode on May 25th, and even by mid-June, there doesn't seem to be much new information. On one hand, Trump has genuinely kept the suspense high; on the other, it shows that the obvious options have already been laid out. While we can't predict Trump's thoughts, you can catch up on everything else worth discussing in this episode. As the first presidential debate and GOP convention approach, the revelation of his choice is likely not far off. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 02:00 When to start picking the Vice President candidate 05:05 Dick Cheney: Why the President and Vice President cannot be from the same state 08:10 Basic principles of choosing a Vice President: Balancing the ticket 10:05 Balancing the ticket: Biden choosing Kamala Harris 11:42 Why Kamala Harris's Asian background was overlooked 14:58 Balancing the ticket: Trump choosing Pence 18:32 What loyalty means to Trump 26:38 Loyalty is more important for those seeking positions within the Trump administration 28:44 Nikki Haley 30:16 Marco Rubio 33:05 Requirements for the Vice President's governing experience 40:05 What Trump needs from potential Vice Presidential candidates 41:30 Back to Nikki Haley 43:06 Elise Stefanik 46:45 JD Vance 49:10 The Senate as a breeding ground for Vice Presidents 50:48 Marco Rubio 52:10 Tim Scott 54:33 Tom Cotton 01:01:53 Katie Britt 01:02:58 Ben Carson 01:04:21 Kari Lake 01:06:23 Vivek Ramaswamy 01:08:42 Doug Burgum 01:11:14 Kristi Noem 01:18:38 Sarah Huckabee Sanders 01:20:12 About this year's presidential debates 01:26:43 Greg Abbott 01:30:44 Byron Donalds 01:32:20 Tulsi Gabbard 01:33:53 Irresponsible prediction on who Trump will choose 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast
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【聊了什么】 英国导演Alex Garland的新作《美国内战》(Civil War)以一场虚构的美国内战为背景，引发了广泛关注和争议。作为A24迄今为止最大制作，电影集全明星阵容和炫目视效于一身，更因触及当下美国社会分裂、政治极化的议题而备受瞩目。然而，电影却避开了最敏感的政治问题，转而以四名战地记者为主角展开叙事，聚焦新闻伦理和人性挣扎，也因此被批评为避重就轻。 在本期节目中，疲惫娇娃的两个女的与美轮美换的主播Lokin和小华一起，探讨以下问题：在战争中，镜头背后是新闻理想主义的湮灭，还是人性的回归？在信息过载的时代，我们是否还有余力正视战争和苦难的真相？摄影和报道究竟能否改变世界，抑或终将被时代洪流所淹没？影片刻意模糊了内战的起因和立场，这是否在鼓吹一种危险的相对主义，还是向观众传达了更有价值的提醒？ 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴 The When】 【时间轴】 00:02:54 讨论电影《美国内战》Civil War的情节和导演Alex Garland的作品。 00:15:13 Alex Garland导演对战地记者职业的矛盾心理刻画 00:40:06 电影对种族主义暴力的直白展现 00:48:06 导演在政治立场上的模糊态度引发争议 00:55:22 战争带来的不确定感和混乱感 01:01:09 摄影记者的自我矛盾：记录还是介入? 01:08:24 社交媒体时代，记者的责任与观众的责任 01:15:08 前辈记者对后辈的无奈：这一行太苦，但拦不住你 01:17:03 尽管科技发达，战争的荒谬感依旧没变 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 本期节目的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 小华：媒体人，美政观察者 小杨和花酱：《疲惫娇娃》主播 【 What We Talked About】 Alex Garland's latest film, "Civil War," was set against a fictional war between two different factions within the United States. The film has sparked considerable controversy. It explores America’s political reality through the lenses (zing!) of four war correspondents, centering on journalistic ethics and the struggles of the human condition, but somehow sidestepping all of the more contentious, real political issues currently dividing America. We were not sure if we liked this artistic choice, so we recorded an episode with our friends from 美轮美换 The American Roulette to process it. Do we like Alex Garland’s decision to obscure the causes of the war? Why do we need photojournalism? Do we still have the capacity to process the harsh realities of conflict and suffering, and hold complexities in this age of social media? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: theamericanroulette.com Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 00:02:54 Discussion of the plot of "Civil War" and the works of director Alex Garland 00:15:13 Alex Garland's portrayal of the conflicting psychology of war correspondents 00:40:06 Blunt portrayal of racist violence 00:48:06 Alex Garland did not take a stand but do we need him to? 00:55:22 The uncertainty and chaos of war 01:01:09 The self-contradiction of photojournalists: to document or to intervene? 01:08:24 In the age of social media, the responsibility of journalists and the responsibility of the audience 01:15:08 Senior journalists' helplessness towards their juniors: This profession causes inevitable moral or physical injuries, but they can't stop people from joining 01:17:03 Despite advances in technology, the absurdity of war remains unchanged 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Hosts and Guests of This Episode: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 小杨 & 花酱：Hosts of CyberPink
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