Episodit
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Putin Trump: The DEEPENING DIVIDE /Lt Col Daniel Davis
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Puuttuva jakso?
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Combat Conditions and Tactics
Both Russian and Ukrainian soldiers are engaged in slow, brutal fighting often carried out house by house, due to the risk posed by drones and artillery.
Small infantry teams (2-4 soldiers) are common, as large groups are vulnerable to single drone or artillery strikes.
Soldiers operate in trench lines, dugouts, or abandoned buildings, moving cautiously due to near-constant aerial surveillance and attacks.
Drone Warfare
Drones are ubiquitous and lethal. They're used for:
Reconnaissance
Direct attacks (e.g., one drone per soldier)
Logistics (e.g., delivering food, water, and ammo to the front lines)
Anti-drone tactics include:
Netting over roads and vehicles
Electronic warfare (effective against some, but not all, drones)
Drones have changed warfare from large-scale maneuvers to micro-tactical engagements.
Environmental Factors
Weather and seasons significantly affect drone operations.
Rain, snow, or high winds can ground drones.
Foliage in summer offers cover; bare landscapes in winter increase exposure.
Resupply Challenges
Resupplying front-line troops is dangerous and often done via drones.
Delivering essentials like food or ammo can require multiple drone trips, increasing the difficulty and slowing operations.
Casualties and Strategic Objectives
Russia is making slow but steady territorial gains.
Their strategy prioritizes destroying Ukrainian forces over taking land.
Ukraine is suffering disproportionately high casualties, largely due to inferior firepower and fewer drones.
Russian superiority in glide bombs, missiles, and artillery contributes to this imbalance.
Tactical Map and Changes Over Time
In 2023, Ukraine had near tactical parity with fortified positions and mutually supporting defenses.
By 2024–2025, many of these positions have been lost, with Russian forces advancing and Ukrainian lines thinning.
Conclusion
The conflict is no longer comparable to past Western wars like Desert Storm or Operation Iraqi Freedom. Instead, it reflects a new kind of warfare dominated by drones, close-quarters combat, and high-tech attrition. The war is a grinding stalemate, with innovation and adaptation playing a critical role in survival and success.
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Criticism of Trump and U.S. Leadership:
The speaker argues that Donald Trump has become incoherent and ineffective, drastically changing his stance on Russia and Ukraine in recent months.
Trump is described as failing in leadership both domestically and within NATO.
He is seen as incapable of influencing events meaningfully or acting in America’s best interest.
Despite his past potential to mediate or de-escalate the conflict, he is now viewed as irrelevant or powerless, overshadowed by entrenched U.S. intelligence and political actors.
Russia's Stance and Strategy:
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has made clear that Russia will not accept any peace deal that leaves the Zelensky government in power.
The Russian view is that the Zelensky regime would use a ceasefire to rebuild militarily, continuing the war later.
Regime change in Kyiv is now seen as a necessary outcome for a lasting peace.
Military Developments:
Putin has announced a "buffer zone" in northern Ukraine, suggesting a new front in the war that expands deeply into Ukrainian territory.
Russian military strategy may involve seizing key regions like Odessa, Kharkiv, and pushing to the Dnieper River.
Russian recruitment is exceeding goals, while Ukraine is facing troop shortages and recruitment problems.
Western Inaction and Miscalculation:
The West, especially the U.S., is accused of ignoring or refusing to understand Russian concerns.
There is frustration that Western leaders, including Trump, Macron, and others, have no real stake or understanding of the conflict.
Russia views attempts at negotiations or pressure from the West as insincere and ineffective.
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Russia is preparing a major new offensive in the war against Ukraine, potentially decisive in securing a Russian victory. Ukrainian leaders, including President Zelensky, have warned that the offensive could begin as early as June, though mounting evidence suggests it may have already started. The recent Russian drone and missile barrage—reportedly the largest of the war so far, with 350 drones and 9 missiles—has struck key Ukrainian military infrastructure, causing widespread damage and further depleting Ukraine’s already limited air defense resources.
The attacks are aimed at command centers, logistics hubs, and military facilities, weakening Ukraine’s ability to maintain its front lines. If Russia continues at this intensity, Ukraine may soon lack sufficient air defenses, making it more vulnerable to deep strikes that could shift the balance of the war.
In parallel, Germany has authorized Ukraine to use Taurus long-range missiles to strike targets inside Russia. This marks a significant escalation and has provoked strong warnings from Moscow. Russian officials have stated that such strikes would be seen as direct German participation in the war, potentially prompting retaliation.
Russia has repeatedly stated openness to a negotiated peace—but only under strict conditions that reflect its interpretation of the 2014 Ukrainian revolution as a coup and demand demilitarization, political changes, and protections for Russian-speaking populations. However, leaders like Dmitry Medvedev suggest that Russia may prefer outright military victory, which would allow it to impose terms unilaterally.
The situation is escalating on multiple fronts—with military intensity increasing, Western involvement deepening, and the window for diplomacy narrowing. The conflict may soon reach a critical turning point.
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The situation in Ukraine is dire and increasingly favors Russia. They claim that:
Russia is strong and growing: Militarily and industrially, Russia is in good shape, with the capacity to sustain and expand the war. They are outproducing Ukraine and the West in weapons, artillery, and manpower.
U.S. and Western policy is delusional: Despite evidence of Russia's growing strength, many Western political and military figures—like John Bolton and British commentators—are still claiming Russia is weakening or about to collapse, which the speaker calls detached from reality.
Trump may be walking away: The speaker interprets Trump’s recent Truth Social post as a possible signal he may stop engaging in the Ukraine conflict, distancing himself from Biden, Zelensky, and Putin, whom he blames for the war.
Western leadership is ignoring reality: The speaker criticizes the West for ignoring Russia’s consistent war aims (e.g., demilitarization of Ukraine, neutrality, constitutional changes), and continuing to fund a losing war. This, they argue, benefits only the defense industry, not the broader Western economies or societies.
Calls for honesty and accountability: The speaker emphasizes that promoting illusions about Ukraine’s capabilities only prolongs suffering and wastes resources. They advocate for spreading “truth,” claiming only a negotiated settlement—on Russian terms—can end the war.
The speaker concludes with a call for viewers to share the video to combat what they see as dangerous misinformation from mainstream media and Western officials.
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The speaker discusses insights from a visit to Russia and conversations with influential figures, emphasizing a hardened Russian stance on the Ukraine war. The military-industrial leadership, though not traditional soldiers, supports Medvedev’s hardline position on achieving an unconditional surrender from Ukraine, drawing parallels to World War II sentiments. Despite the impact of Western sanctions on their businesses, they remain supportive of the Russian government’s position.
There is a broad consensus among Russians—and some voices from countries like India and Angola—that the conflict stems from Western overreach, not Russian aggression. These international voices often view the war as a disruption to the global order and would prefer a negotiated settlement, though they may accept Ukraine’s loss if it occurs, blaming the West for the outcome.
Medvedev’s rhetoric, often dismissed in the West, reflects a deep and resolute national sentiment. While he voices the uncompromising, militaristic narrative, Putin plays the diplomatic role, keeping the door open to negotiations while still preparing for victory through military means.
On the diplomatic front, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov dismissed the idea of a ceasefire preceding peace talks, insisting on a treaty first and questioning the legitimacy of Ukraine’s leadership. This signals that Russia is not interested in Western-led frameworks for peace unless its maximalist demands, including political restructuring in Ukraine, are met.
In conclusion, the dominant Russian view is one of resolve and inevitability—a belief that victory will be achieved through sustained effort and that current Western diplomacy misunderstands Russia's long-term goals and public sentiment.
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John Mearsheimer: Putin Orders BUFFER ZONE /U.S. Dazed & Confused
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Reconnaissance and Targeting:
Drones are used in reconnaissance roles to spot targets and relay live video streams to command and artillery units. They can help adjust fire if communications fail, including using Russian-speaking team members to direct artillery.
Payload Capacity and Resupply:
The drones can carry significant weight, including Russian MREs, cigarettes, water bottles, and other supplies, for friendly resupply. However, heavier loads drain batteries faster, so trade-offs must be considered to avoid losing expensive drones.
FPV vs. Mavic Drones:
FPV (First-Person View) drones, often used as "suicide drones," have a higher failure rate due to electronic warfare (EW), but fiber-optic versions are increasingly used and are much harder to jam.
Mavic drones, which are not designed to be disposable, are flown carefully to avoid losing them. They often reach their targets successfully unless entering high-EW zones, which operators try to avoid or bypass.
Drone Warfare Environment:
Drones have made movement on the front lines dangerous for both sides. Operators describe scenarios where it's risky to even leave trenches.
Ukrainian drones are highly effective, often carrying multiple grenades. Russian operators give credit to Western support for Ukraine’s drone capabilities.
Electronic Warfare & Attrition:
EW can disrupt drones, destroy antennas, and force relocation, creating a cycle of constant adaptation. Warfare has become attritional—about who runs out of supplies and equipment first.
Nature of Modern Warfare:
The conflict is no longer characterized by close-quarters firefights. Instead, it's dominated by drones and artillery. Traditional infantry movement is rare due to the constant surveillance and threat from drones.
Balance of Power:
The Russian side claims superiority in manpower, artillery, armor, and air defense, but acknowledges that drone capabilities are more evenly matched between Russia and Ukraine. Despite that, the Russian speaker believes Russia also has the edge in drones.
Conclusion:
Modern frontline warfare in Ukraine is heavily influenced by drone technology and electronic warfare. Movement is restricted, logistics are challenged, and combat is increasingly remote and attritional. Drones serve multiple roles—reconnaissance, resupply, and direct attack—and both sides are adapting rapidly with evolving technologies.
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Ukraine CeaseFire NEVER!
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Trump’s Position: Former President Trump indicated he has a "red line" for U.S. involvement in the conflict but won't publicly define it. He believes the U.S. should never have been involved, calling it a "death trap."
Stalemate in Negotiations: Despite recent calls and dialogue between global leaders, the positions of Ukraine and Russia have become more entrenched, with little sign of compromise.
Russian Perspective: A former British official notes that Russia feels emboldened due to perceived divisions in the West and sees itself as addressing long-standing security concerns, especially NATO's eastward expansion. These concerns date back to the early 2000s.
Loss of Military Dialogue: After the 2014 annexation of Crimea, military-to-military dialogue between Russia and the West was cut off. The official believes this was a serious mistake that eliminated valuable channels of understanding and conflict prevention.
Zelensky's Position: Ukrainian President Zelensky has firmly rejected Russian demands, vowing never to surrender Ukrainian territory or accept ultimatums.
Intractable Conflict: The gap between Russia and Ukraine’s demands remains wide. Russia insists on territorial withdrawals by Ukraine, while Ukraine refuses any concessions.
Western Limitations: There's acknowledgment that while the West supports Ukraine, it has not provided enough to ensure a decisive victory. The policy has been to support just enough to resist, but not enough to win outright.
Inevitable Negotiations: There’s broad agreement that the war won’t end militarily but through a negotiated settlement. However, the conditions for that remain distant.
Root Causes Ignored: The West has largely failed to engage with what Russia views as the root causes of the conflict, such as NATO expansion and security concerns, which has hindered diplomatic solutions.
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The speaker warns that while the U.S. often boasts of its capabilities, it may be falling behind technologically and socially compared to rivals like China. He uses the poor condition of U.S. infrastructure (e.g., New York subways) as a metaphor for broader national decline, contrasting it with clean and elegant Moscow subways to illustrate differing national priorities and competence.
The conversation then shifts to U.S.-Russia-Ukraine tensions. Trump had a phone call with Putin and seemed optimistic, but European leaders were confused, as Putin’s public stance hadn't changed—Russia still demands Ukraine concede territory and NATO back off. Russian officials like Medvedev and Lavrov have emphasized that Ukraine's chance at remaining a sovereign state may soon vanish if no settlement is reached. Russia appears firm on expanding control to all of what it sees as “NovoRussia,” likely up to the Dnipro River, and protecting Orthodox believers in Ukraine.
The discussion also critiques U.S. policy, arguing the U.S. has escalated tensions through NATO expansion and military exercises since the Clinton era, and that Trump was largely kept in the dark during his presidency by Pentagon and CIA officials. The speaker believes Russia doesn’t want endless war but will achieve its goals—peace on its terms—by force if needed. Comparisons are made to Abraham Lincoln’s Civil War stance: unity at all costs.
General Jack Keane is criticized for portraying Putin as a genocidal criminal while ignoring the actions of leaders like Netanyahu. The segment concludes by transitioning to U.S. Senate discussions on Trump’s position on Gaza, indicating a broader critique of American foreign policy inconsistency.
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Trump's Perspective:
Trump claimed he urged Putin to end the "bloodbath" in Ukraine.He suggested he told Putin if an agreement couldn’t be reached, he’d walk away from negotiations.He framed the conversation as positive and believed Putin wants peace.Criticism of Trump’s Approach:
Analysts argue Trump showed naïveté and misunderstood the dynamics.By saying he'd walk away if talks fail, he may have incentivized Russia to stall.Trump also ignores the fact that the U.S. is not a neutral mediator—it is a co-belligerent supporting Ukraine.Russia’s Consistent Position:
Putin has not changed his demands: Ukrainian neutrality, Russian control of annexed territories, recognition of Crimea, and "denazification".Russian media and officials saw the call as a win, giving them more time while projecting openness to peace.The "memorandum" mentioned is seen as a vague tool to stall and delay real negotiations.Russian Strategy and Sentiment:
Russia is in no rush to end the war without securing strategic goals.Domestic Russian sentiment opposes making concessions after heavy casualties.Officials like Peskov are signaling patience, with no deadlines, implying that talks are more for show.U.S. and European Misunderstandings:
Western leaders are accused of misjudging Russia’s intentions and resilience.Europe wants influence in postwar Ukraine, which Russia will not allow.Putin is seen as willing to drag the conflict out to secure a permanent outcome, unlike the West’s desire for a quick resolution.Media Commentary:
Russian media praised Putin’s performance and diplomatic skill.U.S. analysts like Jack Keane and J.D. Vance made misinformed or inconsistent statements, showing a poor grasp of Russia's strategy and public sentiment.Conclusion:
Russia remains unmoved and strategically consistent.Trump’s impatience and misunderstanding of the geopolitical landscape could undermine his credibility.Any peace talks that don’t acknowledge Russia’s fundamental conditions are likely to be fruitless or drawn out indefinitely.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
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U.S. Middle East Policy INFLAMES & Aggravates /Lt Col Daniel Davis
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Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store
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President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin had a two-hour phone call, followed by Trump speaking with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, EU leaders like Ursula von der Leyen, and others. Trump expressed enthusiasm afterward, suggesting Russia and Ukraine would start ceasefire negotiations. Putin, on the other hand, seemed neutral or mildly optimistic, sticking to familiar positions.
Key Takeaways:
Putin’s Stance Unchanged: The Russian side, including top officials like Yuri Ushakov and Dmitry Peskov, reiterated long-standing demands: no ceasefire until the “root causes” of the conflict are addressed. They consider NATO expansion and Western betrayal (e.g., Minsk Agreements) as key issues.
Minsk Agreements Distrust: Russians believe they were deceived by the West during previous ceasefire deals (e.g., Minsk), which were allegedly used to arm Ukraine rather than resolve conflict. Statements from leaders like Angela Merkel have reinforced this perception.
No Planned Putin-Trump Meeting: The Kremlin confirmed no meeting between Trump and Putin is being arranged, despite some U.S. media suggesting otherwise.
Trump’s Alternate Reality: Analysts argue Trump misunderstands the situation, assuming that a ceasefire is imminent and believing false narratives about Russia's military losses or economic collapse. They claim he is poorly briefed and still tries to act as a neutral mediator, despite U.S. involvement.
Russian Diplomacy View: Putin may have spoken politely during the call, but experts believe he was likely firm and uncompromising behind diplomatic language.
Negotiation Sequence Disagreement: The West, including Trump, often argues ceasefire first, then negotiations. Russia insists it must be the opposite: address root causes first, then possibly a ceasefire.
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Summary of Post-Russia-Ukraine Talks Update:
First Talks Since 2022: Russia and Ukraine held their first direct talks in over three years. Both sides agreed to a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange, and committed to continue talking, which is seen as a positive sign diplomatically.Disagreements Persist:Europeans and Ukrainians: Unhappy with results. Europe demanded a 30-day unconditional ceasefire, which Russia rejected. Western leaders blamed Putin as the main obstacle to peace.Russia: Came out satisfied and added new demands, including:Withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from all of the four annexed oblasts (Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia).No NATO membership for Ukraine.No war reparations.International recognition of Russia's control over Crimea and the four oblasts.Protection of Russian speakers in remaining Ukrainian territory.Talks Result: Rather than narrowing, the gap between the sides widened, with Russia increasing its demands and Ukraine/Europe holding firm.Russian Leverage: Russia feels increasingly confident and even warned that failure to agree could lead them to claim eight oblasts, not just four.U.S. Role: The U.S. has no clear position currently. Trump previously claimed he could end the war quickly but has not delivered. Despite saying mediation would stop by May 1, U.S. diplomats are still involved. Trump suggests only he can make a deal, but his plan is unclear, and there is no evidence either side is ready to compromise.Conclusion: While talks are better than nothing, the war is nowhere near resolution. Both sides are entrenched, Russia is emboldened, and Western powers lack leverage to force concessions.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
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Leaders from both Russia and the West accused each other of not wanting peace in Ukraine. Western leaders, including those in Istanbul, claimed Putin isn't serious about peace. Conversely, some figures argued that Berlin, Paris, Brussels, and especially London also don't genuinely seek peace.
Outcome of Talks in Istanbul:
Talks were brief (about an hour) and largely symbolic.
Most participants seemed to expect little outcome.
Only Russia and Ukraine had formal talks, with additional meetings involving the U.S., U.K., Germany, France, Turkey, and Ukraine.
Marco Rubio (U.S. Secretary of State in this narrative) said only a direct Trump–Putin meeting could lead to progress, despite prior interactions between them.
Russia’s Position:
Russia reiterated demands made in 2022 and June 2023:
Recognition of administrative borders.
Demilitarization.
"Denazification."
No NATO membership for Ukraine.
Russia remains open to conditional ceasefire talks but rejects any unconditional ceasefire.
Ukraine’s Position (Zelensky’s Comments):
Ukraine’s delegation had authority to negotiate, but claims Russia repeated old positions.
Zelensky sees the talks as a performance and reaffirmed past demands:
30-day ceasefire on Ukraine's terms.
No territorial concessions.
Continued military support and security guarantees from the U.S. and Europe.
He publicly appealed to Trump, seeking continued U.S. backing.
U.S. Position and Internal Disarray:
The U.S. appears inconsistent:
Rubio calls for Trump–Putin talks.
Trump claims urgency to end the war, but contradicts Ukraine’s goals (e.g., no NATO or security guarantees).
Western leaders made bold demands (e.g., ceasefire or sanctions) but took no follow-up action, weakening their credibility.
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The Cost of War Is Real and Ongoing
Soldiers and their families continue to suffer from past wars (Iraq, Afghanistan).The deaths and trauma are often forgotten by the public and policymakers.War shouldn't be treated as a casual or inevitable policy option.2. War with Iran Would Be Disastrous
Iran is not Iraq; it has 85 million people, rugged terrain, and alliances with Russia and China.A U.S. strike would likely provoke Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, spiking global oil prices and damaging the U.S. economy.The risk of nuclear confrontation is real for the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis.3. The Push for War Is Driven by Others' Agendas
Figures like Lindsey Graham, John Bolton, and Tom Cotton are accused of relentlessly pushing for war.Israel is portrayed as a driving force behind calls for attacking Iran, with U.S. support being misused.The U.S. military should not be a tool for foreign powers to settle their own scores.4. Diplomacy Is Still an Option
The U.S. can and should choose diplomacy over war.Past agreements like the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) effectively constrained Iran’s nuclear ambitions until they were abandoned.The speaker calls for restraint, realism, and long-term thinking over short-sighted militarism.5. Moral and Constitutional Responsibility
America should uphold its Constitutional principles and only go to war when directly attacked.Leaders have a duty to protect American lives, not risk them for foreign territorial disputes.Conclusion:
The speaker urges Americans to reject unnecessary war, advocate for peace through strength and diplomacy, and stop letting vested interests manipulate foreign policy. The future depends on wise choices today — prioritizing American lives, values, and long-term stability over reckless interventionism.
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Maria Zakharova's Reaction: The Russian spokeswoman expressed unusually harsh criticism toward Zelensky, reflecting growing frustration from the Russian side.
Zelensky’s Demands: Zelensky has called for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire and made strong demands of Western leaders and allies, which the commentator argues are unreasonable given Ukraine's weakened position in the war.
Criticism of Zelensky: The speaker claims Zelensky is delusional, disconnected from reality, and a master manipulator who knows how to use media to craft powerful narratives, even when not grounded in current battlefield realities.
Russia’s Gains: According to the commentary and citing the New York Times, Russia has gained approximately 1,800–2,000 square miles of territory in the last year, underscoring Ukraine's battlefield struggles.
Trump’s Role & Comments: Trump previously claimed he could end the war quickly, but his actions since taking office haven't aligned with that claim. The speaker criticizes Trump for being vague and reactive, especially in suggesting he'd only attend negotiations if Putin does.
Zelensky’s Recent Statement: Zelensky criticized Russia’s low-level delegation at talks with Turkey and framed it as a sign of disrespect, continuing to push for international support and partnership despite his country's losses.
Overall Argument: The commentator believes that Zelensky is driving Western policy on Ukraine but doing so with unrealistic goals, while Western leaders are enabling him to their own detriment. The speaker warns that if current strategies don’t change, it will lead to worse outcomes for Ukraine, Europe, and potentially the U.S.
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- Näytä enemmän
