Episodit
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Major shift in the Treasury curve with a critical spread uninverting for the first time in years. Bonds and central banks are on the move, which leaves some of Treasury market going the wrong way. And the only reason is Jay Powell. From swaps to other bonds, even something called term premia, the Fed is in the dark while bonds are lighting up.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FRBNY Term Premia calculations
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/data_indicators/term-premia-tabs#/interactiveBloomberg Treasury ‘Term Premium’ Gauge Positive for First Time Since 2021
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-27/treasury-term-premium-gauge-positive-for-first-time-since-2021https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
LT Chinese bond rates have been falling fast for a while. Over the last two weeks, ST yields have completely collapsed; most of it last week, too. Why? Maybe more important, why now? The mainstream answer to either one is total nonsense and easily debunked from the September bazooka. What does that leave? Possibly an old familiar name.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Chinese Regulator Asks Insurers to Report Vanke Debt Holdings
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-18/chinese-regulator-asks-insurers-to-report-vanke-debt-holdingshttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Puuttuva jakso?
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According to the latest conventional 'wisdom' - which changes with each and every CPI report and FOMC dot adjustment - inflation is back and so is the soft landing. The most recent update from the labor market says that's entirely backward. Job findings have utterly plunged right when the jobs market reaches that 'magical' unemployment inflection spot on this critical curve.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
There's more to the Brazil story, especially since Brazil's story isn't strictly about Brazil. With markets there spiraling into chaos, the government is down to blaming 'speculators.' If that's the case, then speculation has gone global in a lot of critical ways. From currencies to job findings plunging, even something real like the Baltic Dry which is crashing now, too.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Brazil Central Bank Rejects Doubts Over Power of Monetary Policy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-19/brazil-central-bank-rejects-doubts-over-monetary-policyBloomberg Brazil Traders ‘Sell First, Ask Later’ as Panic Hits Markets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-17/brazil-traders-sell-first-ask-later-as-panic-sweeps-marketsFT Warren Buffett's record cash pile is starting to make people nervous
https://financialpost.com/financial-times/warren-buffett-cash-pile-investors-nervousBloomberg Brazil Finance Chief Says Real May Be Under ‘Speculative Attack’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-18/brazil-finance-chief-says-real-may-be-under-speculative-attackBloomberg Brazil Spends $17 Billion in Reserves to Lift Cratering Real
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-20/central-bank-burns-17-billion-in-reserves-to-lift-brazil-s-realBloomberg Brazil’s Wealthy Lament Political Dysfunction as Fortunes Tumble
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-20/brazil-s-richest-people-lament-political-dysfunction-as-fortunes-tumblehttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
While everyone is hanging on the Fed and the FOMC's indecision about how many rate cuts next year, there are currency crises - plural - beginning to break out in key places. One of those is Brazil where it has gotten so dangerous the country's central bank is now regularly intervening in FX spot markets. What's really going on here? The black hole is angry.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Stocks tanked, bond yields soared, the dollar jumped. All because the Fed doesn't know what it's going to do now? Partly, yeah. There's a lot more to the story, however. Given the tortuous road to rate cuts, it wasn't suddenly going to become smooth sailing now that they've started.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Canada. France. Germany. What do they have in common? Central banks in each are cutting rates. Also, their governments have either collapsed or, Canada, about to. Why? Same reason there are rate cuts. It's not ideology nor really partisanship. It's the economy, stupid.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC Canada finance minister quits after clash with Trudeau, deals blow to government
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/16/canada-finance-minister-quits-after-clash-with-trudeau-deals-blow-to-government-.htmlToronto Sun Trudeau says economy is great, Canadians can see truth
https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/trudeau-says-economy-is-great-canadians-can-see-truthBloomberg French Growth Prospects Slow as Political Uncertainty Weighs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-16/france-s-growth-prospects-weaken-as-political-uncertainty-weighs
CNBC France’s new prime minister gets a baptism of fire after surprise Moody’s downgrade
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/16/frances-new-prime-minister-installed-hours-before-moodys-downgrade.htmlNYT German Government Collapses at a Perilous Time for Europe
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/16/world/europe/germany-confidence-vote-scholz-snap-election.html
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Interest rates worldwide are hanging at the edge of a cliff. It may not seem like it from the current focus on the Fed and the possible pause in its rate cutting. This doesn't mean other central bank rate cuts, either. Instead, two very critical signals have absolutely plunged just in the past few days. Record lows in both are far more relevant than Jay Powell.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
The dollar continues to threaten to make a big move higher. Not only is the main dollar index right at the top end of its multi-year range, the buck is creating big problems for major currencies. The more other central banks or authorities struggle to contain the fallout, the greater the chance for that breakout.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Update on T-bills. Last week's wild auctions repeated this week, only with flipped maturities. Other related data confirm the sharp demand as well as dealer participation in it. We discuss the implications plus dig into the reason why collateral is so important to begin with, and also why we don't know nearly enough about what's going on.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
WEBINAR REPLAY, w/SPECIAL GUEST JIM RICKARDS
https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/26/7y53nc7mb44azzawFRBNY Primary Dealer Statistics
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/counterparties/primary-dealers-statisticsIOSCO Securities Lending Transactions: Market Development and Implications
https://www.iosco.org/library/pubdocs/pdf/IOSCOPD96.pdfOFR Why Is So Much Repo Not Centrally Cleared?
https://www.financialresearch.gov/briefs/files/OFRBrief_23-01_Why-Is-So-Much-Repo-Not-Centrally-Cleared.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Swiss shock - again. Now fearing outright deflation and over the next six months, SNB pulls the trigger on a fifty. Back in March, amidst the "sticky" "inflation" freakout, when the SNB was the first central bank to begin cutting rates it was a warning to other central bankers and the rest of the world what was coming wasn't more "inflation." OPEC concurs.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
WEBINAR REPLAY, w/SPECIAL GUEST JIM RICKARDS
https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/26/7y53nc7mb44azzawSNB policy statement
https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20241212CNBC Swiss National Bank takes leap with 50-basis-point interest rate cut amid franc strength
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/12/swiss-national-bank-takes-leap-with-50-basis-point-interest-rate-cut-amid-franc-strength.htmlChair Jerome H. Powell
At the "Conference on Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communications Practices" sponsored by the Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20190604a.htmBloomberg Franc Drop Seen Short-Lived With SNB Running Out of Room to Cut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-12/swiss-franc-falls-to-two-week-low-affter-half-point-snb-rate-cutBloomberg OPEC Makes Deepest Cut Yet to 2024 World Oil Demand Forecast
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-11/opec-makes-deepest-cut-yet-to-2024-world-oil-demand-forecastCNBC OPEC+ oil output delay a ‘reality check’ as group eyes demand, U.S. outlook, Saudi energy min says
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/06/opec-oil-output-delay-a-reality-check-as-group-eyes-demand-saudi.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Here comes Chinese central bank bond buying, but this is no QE. A report surfaced in China Daily strongly implying the Chinese government is beyond just exploring something called money-financed fiscal expansion. We'll go over what that is, how it is different from QE, and what the real takeaway is.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
China Daily Unconventional monetary steps eyed
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202412/11/WS6758cfcca310f1265a1d2293.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Canada's official unemployment rate jumped in November, reaching its highest level since 2016 (outside 2020). And that was only the beginning. Given how highly synchronized US Treasury rates are with Canadian government bonds, not to mention the Fed and the Bank of Canada, we expect a lot of similarities in the real economy. This one is getting to be uncomfortably close.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Webinar w/Jim Rickards, Wednesday Dec 11 at 6:30pm ET. Sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671piml
Yahoo!finance Canada's interest rates will likely fall. Where will they end up?
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadas-interest-rates-will-likely-fall-where-will-they-end-up-150459864.htmlCBC Jobless rate reaches 6.8% in November, highest since 2017, excluding pandemic
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/jobs-unemployment-november-1.7403156Bloomberg Canada Jobless Rate Jumps to 6.8%, Raising Odds of Big Cut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-06/canada-jobless-rate-jumps-to-6-8-raising-odds-of-big-cutFinancial Post Canada's unemployment rate rises to 6.8%, raising odds of jumbo interest rate cut
https://financialpost.com/news/economy/canadas-unemployment-rate-rises-to-6-8https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
China's top government body, the politburo, attempted to reignite the "stimulus" sentiment with another wordy communication chock full of more promises and platitudes. To begin with, this doesn't bode very well for the "bazooka." Global market reaction wasn't what Beijing was looking for, either. Even stocks and Economists.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Webinar w/Jim Rickards, Wednesday Dec 11 at 6:30pm ET. Sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671piml
SCMP China’s consumer inflation hits 5-month low, leaves room for more stimulus
https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3289917/chinas-consumer-inflation-falls-short-november-factory-price-drag-continuesBloomberg China Signals Bolder Stimulus for Next Year as Trump Returns
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-09/china-shifts-monetary-policy-stance-for-first-time-since-2011https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
The BLS labor data had a chance to show that October's weakness really was just a combination of one-off factors, instead did everything to confirm that it wasn't those at all. That includes the headline payroll number, too. Unemployment is up and, when you properly account for everyone, up A LOT. Just like Canada.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
sign up for the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671piml
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Wild week for a market that's supposed to be boring and go unnoticed. For the second straight month, heavy buying in bills right ahead of the payroll report. Except, in this case, buyers went utterly crazy for the 8-week bill in one of the most incredible bill auctions. But what is all this mess about? Yen, securities lending, and recession.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
WEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim Rickards
Sign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Sign up for the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671piml
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Recessions are a process and what past episodes all have in common is one key ingredient. Rather, one element that comes up missing every time. This critical factor doesn't just end up being the difference between downturn and full-blown contraction, it also turns a recession into a depression. And we've got the data for it plus how 2024 fits into the pattern.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Robert Shimer Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment
https://home.uchicago.edu/shimer/wp/reassess.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
The Christmas shopping season is off to a poor start, with dim results coming in from various sources showing lower traffic and slower spending. The reason is easy enough to identify, starting with the latest labor report from the government. Hiring fell sharply before summer and never came back, all of that leading up to the holidays.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
WEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim Rickards
Sign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlBloomberg Tally of US Shoppers Slipped During Key Holiday Weekend
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-03/tally-of-us-shoppers-slipped-during-key-holiday-weekendCSA Cyber Monday online sales hit new record of $13.3 billion
https://chainstoreage.com/cyber-monday-online-sales-hit-new-record-133-billionInvesting.com US JOLTs Job Openings Surpass Forecasts, Indicating Stronger Labor Market
https://za.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-jolts-job-openings-surpass-forecasts-indicating-stronger-labor-market-93CH-3450582Observer.com ‘Ghost Jobs’ Are on the Rise—And They Are Hurting More Than Just Job Hunters
https://observer.com/2024/06/ghost-job-rise-labor-data/https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
After a weekend of disappointing macro data (which was characterized as "mixed"), China's markets tanked. Not stocks, of course, instead more record lows in bonds plus a very sharp drop in CNY. As we know only too well, CNY DOWN = BAD and yuan is right back near multi-year lows. It's not the only one, either.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
WEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim Rickards
Sign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlBloomberg China’s Factory Activity Expands in Sign of Slow Recovery
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-30/china-s-factory-activity-continues-expansion-in-sign-of-recoveryBloomberg China’s 10-Year Yield Sinks to Record Low on Bets PBOC Will Ease
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-02/china-s-10-year-yield-is-heading-toward-record-2-on-easing-betsBloomberg China Skips Politburo Readout as Investors Await Stimulus
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-02/china-skips-politburo-readout-as-investors-await-stimulus-cluesBloomberg China Home Sales Drop Again as Sustained Stimulus Effect Missing
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-30/china-home-sales-drop-again-as-sustained-stimulus-effect-missinghttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU - Näytä enemmän
