Episodit

  • This episode is an interview I did with the new podcast Information Theory. The host of Information Theory is an anonymous technologist trained in physics and machine learning.

    Information Theory Podcast on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@InformationTheoryPodInformation Theory Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PbxeOYInRuH4DBXOAOq5u?si=q90fZh8PRUut5c1XG4K7Sw(00:00) - Introduction to Information Theory podcast(01:19) - The education of a physicist(10:53) - Computational genomics(19:40) - Thinking styles and collaboration in theoretical physics(26:08) - Scientific progress and the Great Stagnation(40:39) - University research administration(45:05) - Reproducibility crisis(57:58) - Impact of basic research (01:03:16) - Critique of NIH and biomedical research (01:06:48) - Personal reflections on Trump's re-election and an inside view of the 47 transition (01:12:37) - Silicon Valley and US politics(01:15:30) - Concerns and hope for America's future
    Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

    --

    Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

  • Pascal Lottaz is Associate Professor at Kyoto University’s Faculty of Law & Hakubi

    Center. His research area is Neutrality Studies - the study of neutrality as a concept in international relations, sociology, international law, diplomacy, political science, security, and history.

    Follow Pascal on X @PlottazPascal's YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@neutralitystudies(00:00) - Professor Pascal Lattaz's background, early life, and experiences in Japan(14:17) - Neutrality in international relations(20:07) - Ukraine's struggle for neutrality(28:44) - Debating the Ukraine conflict(37:50) - Physics, social sciences, and observer-independent reality(46:13) - The importance of dissent in open societies(47:01) - Russian resilience, NATO, escalation strategies, and potential outcomes(51:43) - European realism and U.S. influence(56:16) - Incentive structures and NATO dynamics(01:04:11) - Japan's strategic position and U.S. alliance(01:13:49) - Potential conflicts and proxy wars in East Asia(01:30:35) - Philippines' strategic dilemma(01:36:26) - Concluding thoughts
    Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

    --

    Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

  • Puuttuva jakso?

    Paina tästä ja päivitä feedi.

  • (00:00) - Overview: 3 weeks in China(02:33) - The China knowledge problem: Grappling with Reality(06:54) - Physics seminars in Shanghai and Beijing(15:54) - Chinese academia, challenges in scientific culture(22:43) - Yu Min: Two Bombs, One Satellite(27:02) - He Jiankui and gene editing, plus the future of biotech in China(33:32) - China's AI and chip war strategy. Impact of U.S. policies on semiconductor industry(35:46) - Quiet confidence in China's technological advancements(37:17) - Discovering my father's history in Yunnan, etched in stone(41:04) - Climbing Jade Mountain on election night: Trump Triumph(48:31) - Shanghai modern infrastructure and technology(51:16) - High-speed rail in China(53:12) - Visit China - or at least watch some travel videos on YouTube!

    Links to X posts made during my trip - check out the whole timeline

    during this period.

    PPP and US vs PRC Real GDP

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1851653168158949492

    PhD student asks me whether Jews control US politics:

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852179736035778768

    Note to retards, on "Chicoms":

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852195575434715645

    Yu Min and the Chinese H-bomb:

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852497112635671016

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852497765353558371

    Me and He Jiankui:

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852693355601199262

    Dali:

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1853239642075648356

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1853247317840629820

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1853301562480718195

    Lijiang:

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1854395254105047484

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1854503079669838057

    MAGA on the Mountain:

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1854015799901495674

    Business-class lie flat seats on HSR:

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855042439280791977

    Kumming:

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855050351755641106

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855409317937098864

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855748351855071433

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1856215080637215222

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1856239700362834006

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1856533059509653578

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1856634646160683273

    Shanghai:

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1857282310099386857

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1857391783770276314

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1857574060122845381

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1857653348557603255

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1858033981276467535

    Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

    --

    Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

  • Han Feizi is the pseudonym of a columnist for Asia Times, who covers the Chinese economy, technology, and US-China competition. The author lives in Beijing, and has an extensive background in finance and investment banking.

    Han Feizi's articles for Asia Times: https://asiatimes.com/author/han-feizi/

    Chapters:

    00:00 Introduction to the guest: Han Feizi
    01:39 What it's like in Beijing right now

    06:38 Modern Conveniences in Beijing

    12:11 What the economy feels like for ordinary people

    19:09 China's economic structure: consumption, infrastructure investment, Michael Pettis

    30:32 Currency Valuation and PPP: real PRC is significantly larger than US economy

    31:45 US high living standards and manufacturing competitiveness

    34:13 Globalization and its discontents

    40:15 Reversing globalization and the myth of American exceptionalism

    45:58 China's increasingly high quality standards and quality of life

    58:09 Whither China? Xi Jinping


    Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

    --

    Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

  • This is a crossover episode with the Seeking Truth From Facts podcast.

    (00:00) - Iranian missile attack vs Israel and missile defense(13:10) - Is there potential for a 1973-style oil crisis? (21:41) - Is NATO getting tired of the proxy war in Ukraine?(25:43) - Why has Europe declined relatively since 2008 and what are the consequences of said decline?(30:13) - Is procyclical European fiscal policy to blame?(34:51) - Has China's infrastructure boom been a white elephant?(41:37) - China's energy grid and solar energy transision(46:57) - Will India catch up to or overtake China?(57:06) - Is liberal democracy really necessary for long-term economic prosperity?(01:00:14) - How did Lee Kuan Yew transform Singapore?

    Links:

    Iran ballistic missiles and missile defense

    https://stevehsu.substack.com/p/iran-vs-israel-implications-for-missile

    Pershing 2 Missile

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1843450614552113316

    Russia-Ukraine war and Iran blowback

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1844551899103863154

    India development

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1814994391502667953

    https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1815047688829706279

    Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

    --

    Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

  • Samo Burja founded Bismarck Analysis, a consulting firm that investigates the political and institutional landscape of society. He is a Senior Research Fellow in Political Science at the Foresight Institute where he advises on how institutions can shape the future of technology. Since 2024, he has chaired the editorial board of Palladium Magazine, a non-partisan publication that explores the future of governance and society through international journalism, long-form analysis, and social philosophy. From 2020 to 2023, he was a Research Fellow at the Long Now Foundation where he studied how institutions can endure for centuries and millennia.

    Samo writes and speaks on history, institutions, and strategy with a focus on exceptional leaders that create new social and political forms. Image has systematized this approach as “Great Founder Theory.”

    Steve and Samo discuss:

    (00:00) - Introduction(01:38) - Meet Samo Burja: Founder of Bismarck Analysis(03:17) - Palladium Magazine: A West Coast Publication(06:37) - The Unique Culture of Silicon Valley(12:53) - Inside Bismarck Analysis: Services and Clients(21:35) - The Role of Technology in Global Innovation(32:13) - The Influence of Rationalists and Effective Altruists(48:07) - European Tech Policies and Global Competition(49:28) - The Role of Taiwan and China in Tech Manufacturing(51:12) - Geopolitical Dynamics and Strategic Alliances(52:49) - China's Provincial Power and Industrial Strategy(56:02) - Urbanization and Demography, Ancient Society(59:41) - Intellectual Pursuits and Cultural Dynamics(01:04:09) - Intellectuals, SF, and Global Influence(01:13:45) - Fertility Rates, Urbanization, and Forgotten Migration(01:22:24) - Interest in Cultural Dynamics and Population Rates(01:26:03) - Daily Life as an Intellectual

    Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

    --

    Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

    Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

  • This is a crossover episode in which https://x.com/loubohan interviews me for his podcast Deus Ex Machina.

    I was obviously in an exuberant mood for this interview - it's one of my favorites!

    Deus Ex Machina podcast:

    https://open.spotify.com/episode/7mXUfNJdNnOjGfu6VGactr?si=Y3j1OZG4QsGdPhXd8dKsrw…

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Growing up in Iowa. Athletics, Chinese culture. KMT and military family background.(11:48) - Hearing about the Cultural Revolution from my dad: his family experienced it firsthand in Zhejiang. Meanwhile, US experts and academics were entirely deluded about reality in PRC(20:55) - "Experts" are often miscalibrated(35:03) - Physicists and finance. Was Charlie Munger right to say it's a waste of talent to channel top brains into finance?(45:15) - Hedgehogs, Foxes, and Eagles. Polymathy.(48:41) - Development of modern China as the greatest story of the last 50 years. My first visit to China: the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone in 1992. US-China competition and the future of Asian Americans.(56:52) - Genomic Prediction. Genomics of cognitive ability. Leftists holding back genetic science. PING = NIH-funded Pediatric Imagining, Neurocognition, and Genetics study. Stephen J. Gould was a fraud. Asian culture (pragmatic realism) and resistance to woken...(01:05:20) - Physics and Free Will. Meat machines programmed by evolution to have an illusion of self?(01:10:04) - Copenhagen Interpretation of QM: Is there true randomness in Physics? Many Worlds, Foundations of QM, and groupthink in modern physics.(01:19:09) - Christianity, raised as a Methodist by my mother, whose family has been Christian since the 19th century. Religious Experience vs Physics viewpoint. Meat machines programmed by evolution to have mystical religious feelings?(01:21:28) - Raising children, family, happiness, the meaning of life in view of my father's life(01:24:34) - The meaning of life, "All is Vanity" (Ecclesiastes), Religion

    Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

    Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

  • This is a crossover episode in which Alf of the Seeking Truth from Facts podcast interviews Steve Hsu about the Chinese economy and political system, and US-China competition.

    Seeking Truth From Facts podcast: https://substack.com/@seekingtruthfromfacts/p-148705853

    Steve and Alf discuss:

    (00:00) - Introduction to the Podcast Collaboration(00:48) - Steve Hsu's Background and Expertise(02:22) - US-China Geopolitical Dynamics(28:44) - China's Political System: Meritocracy vs. Autocracy(32:23) - China's Path to Liberalization: Past, Present, and Future(45:57) - Geopolitical Dynamics: China, Russia, and the West
    Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

    Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

  • This is a short episode recorded at the end of a trip to Caltech (LA), Frankfurt, and Reykjavik.

    Black hole information and replica wormholes at Caltech (talk slides):
    https://stevehsu.substack.com/p/black-hole-information-and-replica

    00:00 Intro: summer in Iceland

    02:04 deCODE genetics

    05:52 Chess: Bobby Fischer in Reykjavik

    11:56 Hyperscaling genAI

    23:11 Synthetic data and Hyperscaling

    24:26 Is the Transformer architecture enough for AGI?

    29:45 Quantum black holes


    Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

    --

    Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

  • Robin Hanson is a professor of economics at George Mason University. He has worked in a variety of fields, including Physics, AI, Economics, and Futurism.

    Follow him at https://x.com/robinhanson

    "When the typical economist tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'Eh, maybe.' Then I forget about it. When Robin Hanson tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'No way! Impossible!' Then I think about it for years." -- Prof. Bryan Caplan, GMU

    0:00 Introduction

    00:34 Welcome and Manifest conference introduction

    03:12 Robin Hanson: Education and Early Influences

    08:38 Transition from Physics+AI to Social Science and Economics

    22:02 Prediction Markets: Potential and Challenges

    28:37 Cultural Drift and Challenges to Modern Society

    40:49 Fertility and Demography

    48:37 Life as a Polymath

    59:27 Future of Artificial Intelligence and the Simulation Question

    01:09:29 Audience Q&A

    Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

    --

    Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

  • Steve discusses China myths and realities with Victor, a tech founder who ran a company in Beijing for 7 years. Among the topics covered: economic growth, real estate bubble, technology innovation, human capital, freedom of expression, Confucianism and Culture.

    00:00 Introduction

    02:02 Post-COVID economy and bursting of the real estate bubble

    08:25 Semiconductor Industry and US-China Tech War

    16:57 STEM Education and Workforce: China vs US

    20:36 Slides on PRC human capital deepening, STEM and total workforce

    39:58 Economic indicators and potential war economy

    41:03 Singapore as model for PRC development, leadership exchanges

    45:45 Travel plans, changes since pre-COVID era, YouTube travel content

    53:00 Freedom of expression

    1:02:20 Confucianism, leadership styles

    1:17:57 Backyard Addendum: Further thoughts, travel to China

    Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

    --

    Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

  • Earlier episode, Harvard Veritas:

    https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/harvard-veritas-interview-with-a-recent-graduate-anonymous-18

    Chapter markers:

    (00:00) - Introduction and Guest Welcome(02:12) - Campus Protests and Media Perception(06:29) - Student Political Views and Academic Freedom(21:44) - Intellectual History of Wokeism(35:46) - STEM vs. Humanities: A Cultural Divide(54:30) - Future of Academia and Closing Thoughts
    Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

    --

    Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

  • Steve talks about AI in light of his recent travels to SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley, and Silicon Valley.

    Chapters:

    (00:00) - Overview: SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley(01:48) - The AI Bubble in Silicon Valley(04:00) - Scaling Laws and AGI(23:36) - Global AI: Singapore, Philippines, real Enterprise applications(34:59) - AGI: Manhattan Project? Manifest and P(doomers), Situational Awareness(51:00) - China LLMs, Huawei vs Nvidia GPUs, US vs China AI race

    Links:

    Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.08361AI rollout in Philippines Call Centers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kps3M1wMHUMLLM rankings and Qwen2: https://huggingface.co/spaces/open-llm-leaderboard/blogThe Economist on China LLMs: https://archive.ph/nW7chSituational Awareness summary: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1803414701159714825

    Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

    --

    Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

  • Philippe Lemoine is a PhD candidate at Cornell University in philosophy and a widely-read public intellectual. We discuss philosophy, the scientific research used to justify COVID lockdowns, and the Russia-Ukraine war.

    Philippe’s writing: philippelemoine.comPhilippe on X: https://twitter.com/phl43(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Background(00:54) - Philippe's Academic Journey(08:29) - Philosophical Insights and Career Shift: Public Intellectual(46:17) - Russian Energy and European Economy(48:27) - Covid Epidemic Modeling: Bad Science(56:22) - Critique of Scientific and Policy Incentives(01:31:54) - The Messy Reality of Ukraine Maidan Uprising(01:32:59) - Could Security Guarantees Have Prevented the Ukraine War?(02:07:21) - Ukraine War: Long-Term Predictions

    Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.


    --

    Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

  • Dr John Seo is co-founder and a managing director at Fermat Capital Management, LLC. He has over 30 years’ experience in fixed income bond and derivatives trading and has been active in the Insurance-Linked Securities (“ILS”) market for over 25 years. Prior to forming Fermat with his brother Nelson in 2001, Dr Seo was senior trader in the Insurance Products Group at Lehman Brothers, an officer of Lehman Re, and a state-appointed advisor to the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund. Dr. Seo’s work in catastrophe funds was featured in a cover article for the New York Times Magazine (‘In Nature’s Casino’ by Michael Lewis, 26 August 2007), and he has also testified before US Congress as an expert on the catastrophe bond market (‘Hearings from the 110th Congress’, 6 September 2007). Dr Seo holds a PhD in Biophysics from Harvard University and a BS in Physics from MIT. He is based in Connecticut.


    Steve and John discuss:

    00:00 Introduction

    00:36 Early Career and Influences

    02:10 The Investor Choice Problem

    07:21 Academic Background and Family Challenges

    12:43 First Steps in Finance

    30:39 Lehman Brothers

    37:29 Introduction to Cat Bonds

    44:53 Parallels Between Derivatives and Insurance Markets

    01:03:22 Building Fermat Capital

    01:09:51 Future of Catastrophe Bonds

    Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

    --

    Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

    Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

  • Molson Hart is the CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. He has deep experience selling products manufactured in China, using Amazon and other platforms. He produced a documentary about the challenges Amazon's market dominance creates for sellers and buyers worldwide. His recent video about a recent trip to visit factories in China went viral, generating millions of views on X.

    Molson Hart on X: https://x.com/Molson_HartAmazon Documentary: https://youtu.be/8L6MaNVNBuQ?si=YMRb4z5F12CoJJI3


    Steve and Molson discuss:

    1:22 Molson Hart's background, experience in China

    5:26 The IQ Question

    13:19 Entrepreneurship and China

    38:40 Selling on Amazon

    48:32 Alternatives and Competitors to Amazon

    50:40 The Future of Amazon

    55:30 Advice for Aspiring Entrepreneurs

    57:27 Understanding China

    1:07:43 China's Rising Global Influence

    1:16:12 Personal and National Identities

    1:18:45 Demographics: China's Future


    Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

    --

    Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

    Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

  • Jaan Tallinn is a billionaire computer programmer and investor. He was a co-founder of Skype, and has invested in companies like DeepMind and Anthropic.

    Tallinn is a leading figure in the field of existential risk, having co-founded both the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge, in the United Kingdom and the Future of Life Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts, in the United States.

    Steve and Jaan discuss:

    00:00 Introduction

    00:33 Jaan Tallinn: AI Investor

    02:03 Acceleration Toward AGI: Excitement and Anxiety

    04:29 AI Capabilities and Future Evolution

    05:53 AI Safety, Ethics, and the Call for a Moratorium

    07:12 Foundation models: Scaling, Synthetic Data, and Integration

    13:08 AI and Cybersecurity: Threats and Precautions

    26:52 Policy goals and desired outcomes

    36:27 Cultural narratives on AI and how they differ globally

    39:19 Closing Thoughts and Future Directions

    References:

    Jaan’s top priorities for reducing AI extinction risk: https://jaan.info/priorities/

    Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

    --

    Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

  • Glenn Luk has worked as an investment banker, private equity investor, and startup founder. He has closely analyzed aspects of the Chinese economy, including its GDP and high speed rail system.

    Steve and Glenn discuss:

    (00:00) - Introduction(01:21) - Glenn Luk's Background: HK, Taiwan, China(07:59) - Evolution of Chinese Companies and Economy(14:58) - From Banking to Private Equity and Venture Capital(23:08) - Founding a Healthcare Startup and Entrepreneurial Ventures(26:35) - China's Development and Economic Policies(41:17) - Comparing US and China's Economies and Cultures(47:12) - Demographics and Consumer Behavior in China(49:09) - China's Economy: Beyond GDP(56:34) - High Speed Rail: huge success, or white elephant?(01:17:26) - Future of China's Economy

    References:

    Glenn Luk on Twitter: https://twitter.com/GlennLukGlenn on High Speed Rail: https://www.readwriteinvest.com/p/is-high-speed-rail-in-china-a-grayMunger and Ricardo: https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2008/03/charlie-munger-ricardo-and-finance.html


    Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

    --

    Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

  • Casey Handmer (PhD, Caltech, general relativity) is the founder of Terraform Industries. He is one of the most capable and ambitious geo-engineers on planet Earth!

    Terraform Industries is scaling technology to produce cheap natural gas with sunlight and air. Using solar energy, they extract carbon from the air and synthesize natural gas, all at the same site.

    March 2024: "Terraform completes the end to end demo, successfully producing fossil carbon free pipeline grade natural gas from sunlight and air. We also achieved green hydrogen at <$2.50/kg-H2 and DAC CO2 at <$250/T-CO2, two incredible milestones."

    Links:

    Casey Handmer’s website: https://www.caseyhandmer.com/Terraform Industries: https://terraformindustries.com/Nerds on Patrol [Episode 3] - Terraform Industries: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9k3dHFJPEU


    Steve and Casey discuss:

    0:00 Introduction

    00:31 Casey's early life and background, from Australia to Caltech

    07:55 The academic path and transition to tech entrepreneurship

    10:40 Terraform Industries

    15:21 Solar costs, efficiency, and global Impact

    24:25 A world powered by Terraform methane

    31:27 The entrepreneurial journey: challenges and insights

    35:01 Investor dynamics and strategic decisions for Terraform

    41:28 The hard Reality of manufacturing and innovation

    44:11 Navigating intellectual property and strategic partnerships

    45:49 The moral and technical challenges of carbon neutrality

    55:48 Looking ahead: Terraform's next milestones and the solar revolution

    Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

    --

    Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

  • Russell Clark is a hedge fund investor who has lived and worked in both Japan and China. He writes the widely followed Substack Capital Flows and Asset Markets: https://www.russell-clark.com/

    Steve and Russell discuss:

    0:00 Introduction

    0:52 Russell's background and experiences in Japan

    13:25 Hong Kong and finance

    31:53 China property bubble

    48:54 Dollar status as global reserve currency

    56:09 Japan and China economies from a long run perspective

    1:05:07 Inflation, US economy, and macro observations


    Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

    --

    Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.