Episodit
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Samo Burja founded Bismarck Analysis, a consulting firm that investigates the political and institutional landscape of society. He is a Senior Research Fellow in Political Science at the Foresight Institute where he advises on how institutions can shape the future of technology. Since 2024, he has chaired the editorial board of Palladium Magazine, a non-partisan publication that explores the future of governance and society through international journalism, long-form analysis, and social philosophy. From 2020 to 2023, he was a Research Fellow at the Long Now Foundation where he studied how institutions can endure for centuries and millennia.
Samo writes and speaks on history, institutions, and strategy with a focus on exceptional leaders that create new social and political forms. Image has systematized this approach as “Great Founder Theory.”
Steve and Samo discuss:
(00:00) - Introduction(01:38) - Meet Samo Burja: Founder of Bismarck Analysis(03:17) - Palladium Magazine: A West Coast Publication(06:37) - The Unique Culture of Silicon Valley(12:53) - Inside Bismarck Analysis: Services and Clients(21:35) - The Role of Technology in Global Innovation(32:13) - The Influence of Rationalists and Effective Altruists(48:07) - European Tech Policies and Global Competition(49:28) - The Role of Taiwan and China in Tech Manufacturing(51:12) - Geopolitical Dynamics and Strategic Alliances(52:49) - China's Provincial Power and Industrial Strategy(56:02) - Urbanization and Demography, Ancient Society(59:41) - Intellectual Pursuits and Cultural Dynamics(01:04:09) - Intellectuals, SF, and Global Influence(01:13:45) - Fertility Rates, Urbanization, and Forgotten Migration(01:22:24) - Interest in Cultural Dynamics and Population Rates(01:26:03) - Daily Life as an IntellectualMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
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This is a crossover episode in which https://x.com/loubohan interviews me for his podcast Deus Ex Machina.
I was obviously in an exuberant mood for this interview - it's one of my favorites!
Deus Ex Machina podcast:
https://open.spotify.com/episode/7mXUfNJdNnOjGfu6VGactr?si=Y3j1OZG4QsGdPhXd8dKsrw…
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Growing up in Iowa. Athletics, Chinese culture. KMT and military family background.(11:48) - Hearing about the Cultural Revolution from my dad: his family experienced it firsthand in Zhejiang. Meanwhile, US experts and academics were entirely deluded about reality in PRC(20:55) - "Experts" are often miscalibrated(35:03) - Physicists and finance. Was Charlie Munger right to say it's a waste of talent to channel top brains into finance?(45:15) - Hedgehogs, Foxes, and Eagles. Polymathy.(48:41) - Development of modern China as the greatest story of the last 50 years. My first visit to China: the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone in 1992. US-China competition and the future of Asian Americans.(56:52) - Genomic Prediction. Genomics of cognitive ability. Leftists holding back genetic science. PING = NIH-funded Pediatric Imagining, Neurocognition, and Genetics study. Stephen J. Gould was a fraud. Asian culture (pragmatic realism) and resistance to woken...(01:05:20) - Physics and Free Will. Meat machines programmed by evolution to have an illusion of self?(01:10:04) - Copenhagen Interpretation of QM: Is there true randomness in Physics? Many Worlds, Foundations of QM, and groupthink in modern physics.(01:19:09) - Christianity, raised as a Methodist by my mother, whose family has been Christian since the 19th century. Religious Experience vs Physics viewpoint. Meat machines programmed by evolution to have mystical religious feelings?(01:21:28) - Raising children, family, happiness, the meaning of life in view of my father's life(01:24:34) - The meaning of life, "All is Vanity" (Ecclesiastes), ReligionMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
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Puuttuva jakso?
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This is a crossover episode in which Alf of the Seeking Truth from Facts podcast interviews Steve Hsu about the Chinese economy and political system, and US-China competition.
Seeking Truth From Facts podcast: https://substack.com/@seekingtruthfromfacts/p-148705853
Steve and Alf discuss:
(00:00) - Introduction to the Podcast Collaboration(00:48) - Steve Hsu's Background and Expertise(02:22) - US-China Geopolitical Dynamics(28:44) - China's Political System: Meritocracy vs. Autocracy(32:23) - China's Path to Liberalization: Past, Present, and Future(45:57) - Geopolitical Dynamics: China, Russia, and the West
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
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This is a short episode recorded at the end of a trip to Caltech (LA), Frankfurt, and Reykjavik.
Black hole information and replica wormholes at Caltech (talk slides):
https://stevehsu.substack.com/p/black-hole-information-and-replica00:00 Intro: summer in Iceland
02:04 deCODE genetics
05:52 Chess: Bobby Fischer in Reykjavik
11:56 Hyperscaling genAI
23:11 Synthetic data and Hyperscaling
24:26 Is the Transformer architecture enough for AGI?
29:45 Quantum black holes
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
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Robin Hanson is a professor of economics at George Mason University. He has worked in a variety of fields, including Physics, AI, Economics, and Futurism.
Follow him at https://x.com/robinhanson
"When the typical economist tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'Eh, maybe.' Then I forget about it. When Robin Hanson tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'No way! Impossible!' Then I think about it for years." -- Prof. Bryan Caplan, GMU
0:00 Introduction
00:34 Welcome and Manifest conference introduction
03:12 Robin Hanson: Education and Early Influences
08:38 Transition from Physics+AI to Social Science and Economics
22:02 Prediction Markets: Potential and Challenges
28:37 Cultural Drift and Challenges to Modern Society
40:49 Fertility and Demography
48:37 Life as a Polymath
59:27 Future of Artificial Intelligence and the Simulation Question
01:09:29 Audience Q&A
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
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Steve discusses China myths and realities with Victor, a tech founder who ran a company in Beijing for 7 years. Among the topics covered: economic growth, real estate bubble, technology innovation, human capital, freedom of expression, Confucianism and Culture.
00:00 Introduction
02:02 Post-COVID economy and bursting of the real estate bubble
08:25 Semiconductor Industry and US-China Tech War
16:57 STEM Education and Workforce: China vs US
20:36 Slides on PRC human capital deepening, STEM and total workforce
39:58 Economic indicators and potential war economy
41:03 Singapore as model for PRC development, leadership exchanges
45:45 Travel plans, changes since pre-COVID era, YouTube travel content
53:00 Freedom of expression
1:02:20 Confucianism, leadership styles
1:17:57 Backyard Addendum: Further thoughts, travel to China
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
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Earlier episode, Harvard Veritas:
https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/harvard-veritas-interview-with-a-recent-graduate-anonymous-18
Chapter markers:
(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Welcome(02:12) - Campus Protests and Media Perception(06:29) - Student Political Views and Academic Freedom(21:44) - Intellectual History of Wokeism(35:46) - STEM vs. Humanities: A Cultural Divide(54:30) - Future of Academia and Closing Thoughts
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
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Steve talks about AI in light of his recent travels to SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley, and Silicon Valley.
Chapters:
(00:00) - Overview: SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley(01:48) - The AI Bubble in Silicon Valley(04:00) - Scaling Laws and AGI(23:36) - Global AI: Singapore, Philippines, real Enterprise applications(34:59) - AGI: Manhattan Project? Manifest and P(doomers), Situational Awareness(51:00) - China LLMs, Huawei vs Nvidia GPUs, US vs China AI raceLinks:
Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.08361AI rollout in Philippines Call Centers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kps3M1wMHUMLLM rankings and Qwen2: https://huggingface.co/spaces/open-llm-leaderboard/blogThe Economist on China LLMs: https://archive.ph/nW7chSituational Awareness summary: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1803414701159714825Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
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Philippe Lemoine is a PhD candidate at Cornell University in philosophy and a widely-read public intellectual. We discuss philosophy, the scientific research used to justify COVID lockdowns, and the Russia-Ukraine war.
Philippe’s writing: philippelemoine.comPhilippe on X: https://twitter.com/phl43(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Background(00:54) - Philippe's Academic Journey(08:29) - Philosophical Insights and Career Shift: Public Intellectual(46:17) - Russian Energy and European Economy(48:27) - Covid Epidemic Modeling: Bad Science(56:22) - Critique of Scientific and Policy Incentives(01:31:54) - The Messy Reality of Ukraine Maidan Uprising(01:32:59) - Could Security Guarantees Have Prevented the Ukraine War?(02:07:21) - Ukraine War: Long-Term PredictionsMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
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Dr John Seo is co-founder and a managing director at Fermat Capital Management, LLC. He has over 30 years’ experience in fixed income bond and derivatives trading and has been active in the Insurance-Linked Securities (“ILS”) market for over 25 years. Prior to forming Fermat with his brother Nelson in 2001, Dr Seo was senior trader in the Insurance Products Group at Lehman Brothers, an officer of Lehman Re, and a state-appointed advisor to the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund. Dr. Seo’s work in catastrophe funds was featured in a cover article for the New York Times Magazine (‘In Nature’s Casino’ by Michael Lewis, 26 August 2007), and he has also testified before US Congress as an expert on the catastrophe bond market (‘Hearings from the 110th Congress’, 6 September 2007). Dr Seo holds a PhD in Biophysics from Harvard University and a BS in Physics from MIT. He is based in Connecticut.
Steve and John discuss:00:00 Introduction
00:36 Early Career and Influences
02:10 The Investor Choice Problem
07:21 Academic Background and Family Challenges
12:43 First Steps in Finance
30:39 Lehman Brothers
37:29 Introduction to Cat Bonds
44:53 Parallels Between Derivatives and Insurance Markets
01:03:22 Building Fermat Capital
01:09:51 Future of Catastrophe Bonds
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
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Molson Hart is the CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. He has deep experience selling products manufactured in China, using Amazon and other platforms. He produced a documentary about the challenges Amazon's market dominance creates for sellers and buyers worldwide. His recent video about a recent trip to visit factories in China went viral, generating millions of views on X.
Molson Hart on X: https://x.com/Molson_HartAmazon Documentary: https://youtu.be/8L6MaNVNBuQ?si=YMRb4z5F12CoJJI3
Steve and Molson discuss:1:22 Molson Hart's background, experience in China
5:26 The IQ Question
13:19 Entrepreneurship and China
38:40 Selling on Amazon
48:32 Alternatives and Competitors to Amazon
50:40 The Future of Amazon
55:30 Advice for Aspiring Entrepreneurs
57:27 Understanding China
1:07:43 China's Rising Global Influence
1:16:12 Personal and National Identities
1:18:45 Demographics: China's Future
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
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Jaan Tallinn is a billionaire computer programmer and investor. He was a co-founder of Skype, and has invested in companies like DeepMind and Anthropic.
Tallinn is a leading figure in the field of existential risk, having co-founded both the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge, in the United Kingdom and the Future of Life Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts, in the United States.
Steve and Jaan discuss:
00:00 Introduction
00:33 Jaan Tallinn: AI Investor
02:03 Acceleration Toward AGI: Excitement and Anxiety
04:29 AI Capabilities and Future Evolution
05:53 AI Safety, Ethics, and the Call for a Moratorium
07:12 Foundation models: Scaling, Synthetic Data, and Integration
13:08 AI and Cybersecurity: Threats and Precautions
26:52 Policy goals and desired outcomes
36:27 Cultural narratives on AI and how they differ globally
39:19 Closing Thoughts and Future Directions
References:
Jaan’s top priorities for reducing AI extinction risk: https://jaan.info/priorities/Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
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Glenn Luk has worked as an investment banker, private equity investor, and startup founder. He has closely analyzed aspects of the Chinese economy, including its GDP and high speed rail system.
Steve and Glenn discuss:
(00:00) - Introduction(01:21) - Glenn Luk's Background: HK, Taiwan, China(07:59) - Evolution of Chinese Companies and Economy(14:58) - From Banking to Private Equity and Venture Capital(23:08) - Founding a Healthcare Startup and Entrepreneurial Ventures(26:35) - China's Development and Economic Policies(41:17) - Comparing US and China's Economies and Cultures(47:12) - Demographics and Consumer Behavior in China(49:09) - China's Economy: Beyond GDP(56:34) - High Speed Rail: huge success, or white elephant?(01:17:26) - Future of China's EconomyReferences:
Glenn Luk on Twitter: https://twitter.com/GlennLukGlenn on High Speed Rail: https://www.readwriteinvest.com/p/is-high-speed-rail-in-china-a-grayMunger and Ricardo: https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2008/03/charlie-munger-ricardo-and-finance.html
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
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Casey Handmer (PhD, Caltech, general relativity) is the founder of Terraform Industries. He is one of the most capable and ambitious geo-engineers on planet Earth!
Terraform Industries is scaling technology to produce cheap natural gas with sunlight and air. Using solar energy, they extract carbon from the air and synthesize natural gas, all at the same site.
March 2024: "Terraform completes the end to end demo, successfully producing fossil carbon free pipeline grade natural gas from sunlight and air. We also achieved green hydrogen at <$2.50/kg-H2 and DAC CO2 at <$250/T-CO2, two incredible milestones."
Links:
Casey Handmer’s website: https://www.caseyhandmer.com/Terraform Industries: https://terraformindustries.com/Nerds on Patrol [Episode 3] - Terraform Industries: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9k3dHFJPEU
Steve and Casey discuss:0:00 Introduction
00:31 Casey's early life and background, from Australia to Caltech
07:55 The academic path and transition to tech entrepreneurship
10:40 Terraform Industries
15:21 Solar costs, efficiency, and global Impact
24:25 A world powered by Terraform methane
31:27 The entrepreneurial journey: challenges and insights
35:01 Investor dynamics and strategic decisions for Terraform
41:28 The hard Reality of manufacturing and innovation
44:11 Navigating intellectual property and strategic partnerships
45:49 The moral and technical challenges of carbon neutrality
55:48 Looking ahead: Terraform's next milestones and the solar revolution
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
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Russell Clark is a hedge fund investor who has lived and worked in both Japan and China. He writes the widely followed Substack Capital Flows and Asset Markets: https://www.russell-clark.com/
Steve and Russell discuss:
0:00 Introduction
0:52 Russell's background and experiences in Japan
13:25 Hong Kong and finance
31:53 China property bubble
48:54 Dollar status as global reserve currency
56:09 Japan and China economies from a long run perspective
1:05:07 Inflation, US economy, and macro observations
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
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Stephen Grugett is the co-founder of Manifold Markets, the world's largest prediction market platform where people bet on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Steve and Stephen discuss:
0:00 Introduction
0:52 Stephen Grugett’s background
5:20 The genesis and mission of Manifold Markets
11:25 The play money advantage: Legalities and user engagement
20:47 Manifold’s user base and the power of calibration
23:35 Simplifying prediction markets for broader engagement
27:31 Revenue streams and future business directions
30:46 Legal challenges in prediction markets
31:47 Dating markets
32:53 The Art of PR
38:32 Global reach and community engagement
39:27 The future of Manifold Markets and user predictions
43:38 Life in the Bay Area; Tech, culture, and crazy stuff
Manifold Markets: https://manifold.markets/
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
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Raymond McGovern is a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst, serving from 1963 to 1990. His CIA career began under President John F. Kennedy and lasted through the presidency of George H. W. Bush. McGovern advised Henry Kissinger during the Richard Nixon administration, and during the Ronald Reagan administration he chaired National Intelligence Estimates and prepared the President's Daily Brief.
He received the Intelligence Commendation Medal at his retirement but returned it in 2006 to protest the CIA's involvement in torture.
Steve and Ray discuss:
0:00 Introduction
01:25 Ray McGovern's assessment of the JFK assassination
26:10 Hunter Biden's laptop
30:50 Ukraine and the U.S. intelligence services' role in the deep state
55:20 Strategic implications of the Ukraine war for the U.S.
01:03:38 Are things worse today, versus 1963?
Books referenced in this episode:
JFK and the Unspeakable
https://www.amazon.com/JFK-Unspeakable-Why-Died-Matters/dp/1439193886
Mary's Mosaic: The CIA Conspiracy to Murder John F. Kennedy
https://www.amazon.com/Marys-Mosaic-Conspiracy-Kennedy-Pinchot/dp/1510708928/
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
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Steve discusses DNA and the origin of life on Earth, the Fermi Paradox (is there alien life?), AI and its implications for the Simulation Question: could our universe be a simulation? Are we machines, but don't know it?
Slides: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CrWLiKYhLbDLG8yTOBySrsKrzAUbV-FES1toeJL-UWE/edit?usp=sharing
Further discussion of the Simulation Question in light of AGI, and a refinement from quantum mechanics: The Quantum Simulation Question: https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-quantum-simulation-hypothesis-do-we.html
CORRECTION: 31:25 The size of our galaxy is not 100 million light years. I should have said ~100 THOUSAND = 100k light years instead!!!
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
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Sean Reyes is Utah’s Attorney General and a producer for the movie “Sound of Freedom.” Steve and Sean discuss his personal story, human trafficking, and the role of technology in law enforcement.
More on Reyes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_Reyes
NOTE: Reyes has announced that he will not seek re-election as Utah AG: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEEj4UgjDL4
00:00 Sean Reyes’ early life and family history
14:21 Sean's personal journey and career
21:28 Political journey and decision to run for AG
24:08 The movie Sound of Freedom
28:45 The reality of human trafficking
31:40 Technology and law enforcement
44:00 The horror of human trafficking: victims, aftercare, and the media
01:05:23 Future plans and aspirations
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
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TP Huang returns for the third time to discuss the US-China strategic competition in terms of military technology.
Previous episodes with TP include:
China's EV Market Dominance and the Challenges Facing Tesla — #48: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/chinas-ev-market-dominance-and-the-challenges-facing-tesla-48Huawei and the US-China Chip War — #44: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/huawei-and-the-us-china-chip-war-44
(00:00) - Introduction(02:23) - Hypersonic weapons and A2AD(08:15) - The evolution of China’s military technology(13:30) - Hypersonic missiles: targeting and interception(29:52) - Surprise attack on Hawaii or Seattle?(33:36) - Japan's role in a U.S.-China military conflict(36:15) - Chinese invasion of Taiwan(42:44) - Amphibious landing, boots on the ground(45:20) - Red lines and Taiwan independence(48:38) - PRC nuclear weapons buildup(51:17) - PRC-Russia alliance: natural resources, technology; Ukraine strategy disaster(59:37) - Future developments of military technology in China(01:11:44) - Predictions regarding US-PRC balance of power
Steve and TP discuss:Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
- Näytä enemmän
