Episodit
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I discuss the quarter and YTD p[eriod for the brands portfolio as wlel as overall markets and what worked and didn't work. I also talk about the worlds largest crowded trade, an overweight to tech, semiconductors and AI stocks and offer a potential catalyst that could force some capital away from the crowded trades and in to everything else.
For more information on investing in global brands:
https://www.globalbrandsmatter.com/dynamic-portfolio
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I discuss the overall market, rates, inflation, economic data and the global brands we own. I also highlight which sectors and style boxes are performing and lagging. I spend a little time talking about the consumer and the massive amount of capital at their disposal that flows to the consumption theme. This is a great market update and highlights the power of investing in global brands and the consumption thematic.
https://www.globalbrandsmatter.com/dynamic-portfolio
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We love the luxury goods category and LVMH is a key core brand to own as the category leader. Q1 was solid and stable with core consumers engaging as always and some aspirational consumers pulling back a bit. Fashion & leather goods performed well, select retail-Sephora - was very strong. Sephora is clearly taking share from Ulta and Ulta's stock reflects it.
The stock is cheap relative to the peer group and itself and fits all the important style factors to own in this kind of "higher for longer" environment. We will certainly buy the dips as they come.
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I cover Q1 Dynamic Brands performance, lots of stock, sector, style box return info as well as how we see consumer spending playing out the rest of the year and where we are allocated to benefit from this spending. I talk about inflation, interest rates, the quality style factor, and where we see sticky inflation regardless of what the Fed or gov't tell us. Enjoy!
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MANU is one of the most recognized and valuable sports brands in the world. This club is worth much more with a new owner, strategy, players, stadium, and a debt refinancing. All of this is possible with the new minority owner, Sir Jim Ratcliff and the stock is down 46% from the recent highs making the entry point much more attractive IMO. Here's what I see. This is NOT advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions.
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Here's our January 2024 market and global brands update. I talk about the market overall, the brands portfolio in specific, and the results of the active trading we did inside the fund for January. Active trading can be a wonderful addition to a core, buy-hold portfolio when executed well. In an algo and 0DTE (zero days to expiration) options focused market, volatility will always be present making it something to focus on for clients. For more information on the brands fund and portfolio holdings:https://www.globalbrandsmatter.com/dynamic-portfolio
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Todays episode talks about the energy markets, energy stocks, and where there could be opportunities for investors and even traders. I check in with energy expert, Paul Sankey, of SankeyResearch.com
We talk about the integrated oils, oil services, refiners, and LNG. Paul is such a great chat because he has such a great grasp of energy markets, M&A, production, and the stocks.
Check out his site: https://sankeyresearch.com/
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With >20,000 stores worldwide, Domino's is the largest Pizza company in the world. The stock has a strong history of beating the S&P 500 over time yet its lagged over the last few years due to a tough 2022. With store growth set to accelerate and operating efficiencies taking hold, we think the stock is a solid mean reversion opportunity in 2024 and beyond.
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TJX, Marshalls, Home Goods, and Sierra is a >$100B retail brand that has compounded at a above-market rate for many decades. With over 3500 stores worldwide, this model can keep growing over time. Solid management team that is always looking for new, interesting concepts and strong capital allocation decisions at the core. The stock is well positioned for today's stingy consumer spending environment. For more information on investing in leading brands:https://www.globalbrandsmatter.com/dynamic-portfolio
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In today's episode, I discuss the 2023 Brands Fund returns, what worked, and what we expect for 2024. I highlight the Mega Brands returns, the mean reversions that still are likely to come and what a goldilocks scenario looks like using 53 years of market returns at different Fed Funds and inflation regimes.
To get more information on how to invest in the brands that matter most:
https://www.globalbrandsmatter.com/dynamic-portfolio
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Travel has always been a very important spending category for consumers globally. Post pandemic, we still see strong travel demand and better profitability for key online travel platform Expedia, EXPE. Through Expedia brands like VRBO, Expedia, Travelocity, Orbitz, Hotwire, CarRentals.com, and Homeaway, Expedia is getting its mojo back. There's a huge gap between the market cap of EXPE and its two key peers, Booking and AirBnb. As Expedia gets back on track and the industry continues to flourish, we expect a major catch-up opportunity in shares of EXPE. Using a conservative comp with ABNB, the VRBO division on a stand-alone basis would likely be worth at least 50% of EXPE total value making the rest of the business exceptionally cheap. EXPE trades at 9x, BKNG at 16x and ABNB at 27x earnings. We think EXPE can expand the multiple well and the company seems to agree with its new $5B buyback authorization.
To learn more about investing in the world's leading brands:
https://www.globalbrandsmatter.com/dynamic-portfolio
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In today's quick video, I discuss our allocation to a more defensive, stable consumer spending industry, auto parts and retail auto maintenance via the two leaders, Autozone and O'Reilly Automotive. I'm sure you have seen each brand in your community. AZO has 7165 stores and ORLY has 6111 stores so they are well represented in most communities. They have been strong compounders as stocks in a very important but boring industry making them solid investments over time.
For more info on how to invest in leading global brands:
https://www.globalbrandsmatter.com/dynamic-portfolio
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Eli Lilly has been a monster stock over the last 5 years. It's compounded at 40%+ a year versus the market at roughly 11%. This great biopharma brand spends $6B a year on R&D, organically grows well, grows the dividend 15% a year and has a full pipeline thats diverse. This management team is second to none. The stock is not cheap anymore and it's a bit crowded but long-term we see great things for this brand. Mounjaro and Tirzepatide get alll the attention given their blockbuster potential but this company does $33B in annual revenue and very little is coming from the obesity and chronic over-weightedness theme thus far. In this quick video, I update people on what we see and why we still like the name long term.
For more information on investing in dominant, innovative growth brands:
https://www.globalbrandsmatter.com/dynamic-portfolio
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Mr Softy has been a monster stock for over 40 years. The business is incredibly stable and predictable and management continues to keep innovating and growing. We see nothing that changes that on the horizon. The Mega Brand core equity position is still intact. Cloud and AI is driving the growth now and we are still early days in that opportunity. The small dividend grows each year and the stock has performed well in most economic environments. When it gets clocked, as every company does on occasion, you get a chance to own more.
For more information about investing in Mega Brands:https://www.globalbrandsmatter.com/dynamic-portfolio -
Apple could be the greatest consumer tech staple ever created. Sometimes we feel like we can't live without our phones, laptops, and airpods. Apple embodies everything a Mega Brand should be: high brand love, innovator of products and services we love and can't live without, globally dominant, demographically diverse consumer base, super strong balance sheet and quality management team. Would you expect a business described like this to trade at or below a market multiple? I certainly wouldn't. Apple is a core holding for the brands investment portfolio and we love the opportunity to buy more when it dips. iPhone sales and top line revenues have flatlined generally after a massive pull-forward from the pandemic but we expect sales to re-accelerate going forward as iphone 15 really kicks into high gear for consumers. In the meantime, they pay a small dividend that grows every year and they buyback a large part of the float every single year. There's always risk to any business but we see nothing systemic too stop Apples dominance, particularly as India ramps up.For more information about investing in the most dominant brands:https://www.globalbrandsmatter.com/dynamic-portfolio
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The global luxury goods market is expected to be about $320B over the next 5 years. Strong demographic tailwinds exist as younger, aspirational luxury goods consumers spend more on the category than older baby boomers. Between the largest wealth transfer in history ($45Trillion moving over the next 2 decades) and the high brand love LVMH, Hermes, L'Oreal,, and Ferrari have with consumers, we see big things ahead even as the economy cools off a bit short-term. Luxury spending tends to be less cyclical and more stable in slowdowns than most other categories. Here's a quick review of LVMH, Hermes, and L'Oreal's dominance in their categories.For more information on investing in leading global brands:https://www.globalbrandsmatter.com/dynamic-portfolio
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Athleisure is a lifestyle trend for global consumers. Nike & Lulu are dominating this trend along with a few other mega brands and emerging brands like Vuori. When you appeal to kids through older adults, men and women and on a global basis, you have strong growth prospects. These all drive great stock performance over time. Nike is a more mature growth brand, Lulu has experienced much better growth off a lower base. Both have strong tailwinds going forward from a demographic perspective. Here's my take on both brands, the thematic and the charts.
For more information on investing in global brands:
https://www.globalbrandsmatter.com/dynamic-portfolio
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