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After a short break, we’re back with Episode 8 of the Prometheus Podcast! This recording is one of many podcasts to come, which will cover far-ranging topics in macro, markets, and investing. As always, our objective is to bring you thoughtful and actionable insights, and our conversations will always aim to be so.
As always— we have another exciting guest for you, Adam Butler. Adam is the CIO of ReSolve Asset Management Global and has 15 years of experience in investment management, including 12 years as a Portfolio Manager, and holds both CFA and CAIA charters. Resolve is on the cutting edge of systematic cross-asset macro investing, and this episode is truly a masterclass in all things portfolio structuring and systematic investing. Adam brought a wide and deep expertise to this conversation, with a level of sophistication that you’d be hard-pressed to find across the industry. Every investor will likely have something to learn from this wide-ranging conversation on investing. Aahan and Adam discussed the following:
* Systematic Investing
* The Beta-Alpha Continuum
* Beta And Its Drivers & Harvesting Commodities As An Essential In A Balanced Portfolio
* The Importance Of Diversity
* Alternative Risk Premia & Their Role In Augmenting Beta
* The Importance Of Ensembles: Rubustness & Diversity
* Alpha Construction & Non-Linearity
* The Current Outlook: A Resilient Economy With Higher Inflation
If you’re interested in creating systematic investing or just looking for structure in terms of how to think about markets, look no further!
Make sure to check out Adam Butler on Twitter @GestaltU and check our Resolve Asset Management for more information on their research and their funds.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit prometheusresearch.substack.com -
We’re back with Episode 7 of the Prometheus Podcast! This recording is one of many podcasts to come, which will cover far-ranging topics in macro, markets, and investing. As always, our objective is to bring you thoughtful and actionable insights, and our conversations will always aim to be so.
Today, we have another fantastic guest for you-Andy Constan. Andy is the Founder & CIO of Damped Spring Advisors, a macroeconomic research firm specializing in Hedge Fund consulting. Andy brings a great deal of experience to the table, having worked at some of the biggest macroeconomic hedge funds- including Bridgewater & Brevan Howard. Andy has also generated some serious alpha this year, using his flow-based approach to time key inflections in asset markets— so this episode is must-listen if you’re trying to navigate today’s volatile markets.
Find the show notes below:
* Mechanics (00:00-59:00): Alpha, Discretionary vs. Systematic, Risk Premiums, Idiosyncratic Volatility, Risk vs. Volatility, Flows (Gamma, Leverage, QT), QT Mechanics, Portfolio Rebalance Channel.
* Macro (59:00-1:18:00): High Nominal Growth, Higher Than Expected Inflation, Higher Than Expected Terminal Rates For Longer, What Could “Break” In Markets.
* Markets (1:18:00- 1:22:00): Hedging Into FOMC & Quarterly Refunding.
For more “high-frequency insights,” follow both @prometheusmacro & @dampedspring on Twitter.
If you enjoyed this episode, make sure to let us know in the comments below. Finally, if you haven’t already, don’t forget to subscribe!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit prometheusresearch.substack.com -
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We’re back with Episode 6 of the Prometheus Podcast! This recording is one of many podcasts to come, which will cover far-ranging topics in macro, markets, and investing. As always, our objective is to bring you thoughtful and actionable insights, and our conversations will always aim to be so.
Today, we have another fantastic guest for you- Eric Basmajian. Eric is the founder of EPB Macro- a macro research firm focused on economic cycle analysis. Eric has an excellent mechanistic understanding of the economy and applies a data-driven approach to forecasting the economic cycle. Anyone interested in macro forecasting will have something to learn from this episode. In the episode, Aahan & Eric take the listener on a journey deep into understanding economic cycles and what that understanding brings to light in today’s context. If you ever wanted to understand how economic cycles unfold or where we are in the current cycle— this episode is for you!
Find the show notes below:
* (00:00 - 55:00) Mechanics: Framework Overview, Secular Growth Drivers, Debt & Productivity, Cycle Causality, Leading Indicator Framework, Indicator Durability & Persistence, Asset Allocation Tilts & Alpha Overlay
* (55:00 - 1:29:00) Macro: Current Backdrop, The Lack Of A Virtuous Cycle Turns Into Viscious Downturn, “Artificial” Production Strength, Growth Dependance On Lagging Indicators, The Fed Could Go Too Fast, Potential Policy Errors Leading To Stagflation
* (1:29:00-1:35:00) Markets: Nominal Growth Priced Too High, Stocks vs. Bonds.
Make sure to check our EPB Research. For more “high-frequency insights,” follow both @prometheusmacro & @epbresearch on Twitter.
If you enjoyed this episode, make sure to let us know in the comments below. Finally, if you haven’t already, don’t forget to subscribe!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit prometheusresearch.substack.com -
We’re back with Episode 5 of the Prometheus Podcast! This recording is one of many podcasts to come, which will cover far-ranging topics in macro, markets, and investing. As always, our objective is to bring you thoughtful and actionable insights, and our conversations will always aim to be so.
Today, we have another exceptional guest for you- Bob Elliott. Bob is Co-Founder and CEO of Unlimited- a company that uses machine learning to replicate hedge fund strategies in a low-cost ETF format. Before starting Unlimited, Bob spent over a decade at Bridgewater Associates, one of the largest and most successful macro hedge funds, and was integral to building their systematic process. Bob brings a rich mixture of economic analysis, portfolio construction, and systematic thinking to this episode, which is not to be missed! Aahan & Bob cover almost every aspect of macro in their discussion and provide a rigorous framework for thinking about the current environment. If Alpha was ever available on a podcast, it’s this one!
Find the show notes below:
* (00:00 - 14:30) Macro Mechanics: A Transactions Based Approach To The Economy, The Long Term Drivers, Debt Levels & Impact
* (14:30 - 31:30) Inflation: Secular Drivers, Offsetting Dynamics That Caused Low Inflation, Inflation Inflection, The Nominal Economy, The Classic Inflation Cycle
* (31:30 - 48:00) Assets & Portfolio Structuring: Avoiding The Recency Bias in 60/40 Portfolios, Constructing Balanced Portfolios, Alternative Premia, Alpha Decay, Alpha Generation
* (48:00 - 53:00) Current Environment: Where We Are, Asset Prices Need To Decline To Tame Inflation, Stocks Rich Verus Bonds, Will The Fed Go Further Than Expected, Bonds & Stocks.
* (53:00 -1:16:00 ) Alpha Positions: Shorting Stocks, Relative Value Between Stocks & Bonds, Bond Drivers, Breakevens, Commodities, Alpha Portfolio Pairing
Make sure to check out Bob & Unlimited on their website; they have a very exciting product: Unlimited Funds. For more “high-frequency insights,” follow both @prometheusmacro & @BobEUnlimited on Twitter.
If you enjoyed this episode, make sure to let us know in the comments below. Finally, if you haven’t already, don’t forget to subscribe!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit prometheusresearch.substack.com -
We’re back with Episode 4 of the Prometheus Podcast! This recording is one of many podcasts to come, which will cover far-ranging topics in macro, markets, and investing. As always, our objective is to bring you thoughtful and actionable insights, and our conversations will always aim to be so.
Today, we have the pleasure of once again hosting Darius Dale, Founder & CEO of 42 Macro. For those of you who missed our previous conversation, we highly recommend you give it a listen for a better understanding of his sophisticated framework.
While in our last conversation, we focused more on mechanics, today we’re going to spend our time discussing the current state of the economy & the outlook for markets. Aahan & Darius traverse the US macro landscape, discussing everything from the Fed & inflation to the reverse repo facility and portfolio strategy. This is a must-listen for anyone seeking to manage macro risk during one of the most economically volatile periods in history.
Find the show notes below:
* (00:00 - 10:40) The Fed, Inflation, & Labor Markets
* (10:40 - 17:00) Equity Markets, Treasuries & Stock Bond Correlations
* (17:00 - 27:00) Nominal Profits, Right Tail Risks, A Higher Inflation Target
* (27:00 - 37:00) Deflation-Dispersion Playbook, Tightening Liquidity, Reverse Repo Surpises
* (37:00 - 43:00) Risk Managing CPI, Manging Tail Risk, Adjusting Positioning
Make sure to check out Darius’ firm, 42 Macro; they have a great product: Click here. For more “high-frequency insights,” follow both @prometheusmacro & @42macro on Twitter.
If you enjoyed this episode, make sure to let us know in the comments below. Finally, if you haven’t already, don’t forget to subscribe!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit prometheusresearch.substack.com -
We’re back with Episode 3 of the Prometheus Podcast! This recording is one of many podcasts to come, which will cover far-ranging topics in macro, markets, and investing. As always, our objective is to bring you thoughtful and actionable insights, and our conversations will always aim to be so.
Today, we have a formidable guest- Mr. Blonde. Mr. Blonde is an independent macro strategist who chooses to remain anonymous. With significant experience on both the buy-side & sell-side- his equity-centric research is timely, precise, and pragmatic. This year, he’s done an excellent job expecting the bear market in stocks & the ensuing bear market rally. In a wide-ranging discussion, our Founder, Aahan Menon, helps Mr. Blonde take you through a masterclass in macro-equity investing. This is a must-listen for anyone investing or trading equities in an active fashion. Enjoy!
Find the show notes below:
* (00:00 - 37:30) Equity Mechanics: The Profits Cycle, A Data-Driven Approach, Leading Indicators, Market Internals, Dynamic Valuations.
* (37:30-58:00) Current Landscape: Pulled-Forward Spending, Inflation Dynamics, Profits & Equities During Inflation, Sector Divergences During Inflation.
* (58:00 - 1:09:00) Positioning: Staying Defensive, Long-Short Sector Opportunities, High-Quality Compounders.
Make sure to check out his Substack: Click here.
For more “high-frequency” insights like these, follow both @prometheusmacro & @MrBlonde_macro on Twitter.
If you enjoyed this episode, make sure to let us know in the comments below. Finally, if you haven’t already, don’t forget to subscribe!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit prometheusresearch.substack.com -
We’re back with Episode 2 of the Prometheus Podcast! This recording is one of many podcasts to come, which will cover far-ranging topics in macro, markets, and investing. As always, our objective is to bring you thoughtful and actionable insights, and our conversations will always aim to be so.
Today, we have an exceptional guest, Alfonso Peccatiello- author of The Macro Compass. The Macro Compass is the largest macro Substack out there, and with good reason- Alfonso has a deep and rich understanding of the monetary system, which he has weaponized into an actionable investment framework. His approach is cogent and extremely relevant in today's policy setting. During an in-depth conversation, they discussed the mechanics of the monetary system, the difference between various forms of credit, and how this can all be distilled into an investment portfolio. This is a must-listen for those wishing to link a robust monetary framework to actual risk-taking. Enjoy!
Find the show notes below:
* (00:00 - 11:20) Monetary Mechanics: Private Sector Money Verus Financial Sector Money.
* (11:20 - 22:30) Government Impulse: Private Money Versus Government Money, The Limits On Credit Creation, Government Spending Limitations.
* (22:30 - 28:15) The Macro Compass: Credit Impulse, Monetary Policy Stance Versus Neutral.
* (28:15 - 33:30) Risk Overlay: Strategic Portfolio, Tactical Portfolio, Stop Losses.
* (33:30 - 41:30) The US Macro Environment: We’re In The Worst Quadrant, The Fed, Inflation, Risk Rally, & Bonds.
* (41:30 - 46:00 ) Risks To The Outlook: Soft Landing, Treasury Sales By The Fed, Implementing Risk Management.
Make sure to check out his Substack: Click here.
For more “high-frequency” insights like these, follow both @prometheusmacro & @MacroAlf on Twitter.
If you enjoyed this episode, make sure to let us know in the comments below. Finally, if you haven’t already, don’t forget to subscribe!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit prometheusresearch.substack.com -
Today, we’re very excited to announce the launch of the Prometheus Podcast! This recording is the first of many podcasts to come, which will cover far-ranging topics in macro, markets, and investing. As always, our objective is to bring you thoughtful and actionable insights, and our conversations will always aim to be so.
For our first episode, our Founder, Aahan Menon, is joined by a very special guest: Darius Dale, Founder & CEO of 42 Macro. Darius is one of the best quantitative macro minds out there and runs one of the best macro research firms in the business. The conversation covered a wide variety of topics, from the underlying mechanics of a systematic macro approach, to the current outlook on markets. Find the show notes below:
* (0:00 - 0:30) Understanding The Systematic Approach: Concepts, Nowcasting, Regime Recognition
* (0:30 - 0:43) The Current Economic Backdrop: Growth, Labor Markets, Fed, The Structure Of Inflation Drivers
* (0:00 - 0:43) Market Views: Treasuries, Stock & Bond Correlations, Eventual Dollar Unwind
Make sure to check out Darius’ firm, 42 Macro, they have a great product: Click here. For more “high-frequency insights”, follow both @prometheusmacro & @42macro on Twitter.
If you enjoyed this episode, make sure to let us know in the comments below. Finally, if you haven’t already, don’t forget to subscribe!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit prometheusresearch.substack.com
