Episodit
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the China Development Forum, including China's messaging to foreign investors, revisiting the Mintz raids as five detained employees are finally released, no updates on a Xi-Trump meeting, and news in the EV space. From there: The US plans to revive shipbuilding capacity, the likely disruption if the US adopts the USTR recommendations to counter Chinese dominance, Michael Froman writes that China has remade the international system, and a few more thoughts on the CK Hutchison deal. At the end: Rumors swirl around He Weidong and others in the PLA, what the noise might signal, and news of a deep-sea cable cutter is accompanied by a reminder that China constructs and protects deep sea cable like no other.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-Te designating the PRC a "foreign hostile force," the initial response from the PRC and potential responses to come, rumors surrounding CMC vice chairman He Weidong, and an email wondering about the defense of Taiwan as a core American interest. From there: Sources say Xi Jinping is "angered" by CK Hutchison's deal to sell its ports in Panama, and TikTok talks accelerate as Beijing remains silent on the issue and Oracle heads to Washington to pitch lawmakers on Project Texas 2.0. At the end: Trump says that Xi will visit "soon" but sources tell the FT otherwise, a question about Beijing's reaction to DOGE and Trump 2.0, a question on fentanyl, and a bit more on the memoir of a former Facebook exec.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from the Two Sessions, including good news for tech companies as the push for new quality productive forces continues, the rhetoric surrounding domestic consumption alongside modest stimulus measures so far, the NDRC's plan to mobilize 1 billion yuan to support the startup ecosystem, and more. From there: The PRC announces new tariffs on Canadian exports and state TV warns against Canada cooperating with the U.S. on tariffs, and dueling reports on a potential Trump-Xi meeting as communication remains frustrated between high level US and China leaders. At the end: Cuts to USAID provide a win to the PRC as China-watching NGOs go offline, a whistleblower highlights Facebook’s failed attempts to enter China, and TikTok rumors continue to churn as the apparent deadline for a sale approaches in April.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Trump raising tariffs on the PRC by 10%, the PRC's response, and the phone call Xi-Trump phone call that was rumored a month ago but still hasn't happened. Then: What to watch for during Two Sessions week, Xi has always supported private enterprises, a response from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on fentanyl, and why the U.S. focusing on domestic enforcement only goes far. From there: A roundup of news on chips, including an investigation in Singapore, TSMC's investment in the United States, a Wall Street Journal report on Nvidia, and questions facing the Trump team as new policy takes shape. At the end: The New York Times reports on "plea leniency," FIFA won't play ball with the PRC, and a variety of Moutai thoughts as Kweichow Moutai struggles to find demand.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin by parsing the White House's memorandum on an America First Investment Policy, President Trump's recent appointees, the latest news from the Commerce Department and BIS, and a proposal for lifting controls on chips and tightening controls on chipmaking equipment. From there: "Reverse Nixon" possibilities and structural realities that make it unlikely, document #1 and the party's priorities surrounding food security, a PRC fishing crew is detained for questioning after a Taiwan cable cutting incident, the significance of the PLA drills between Australia and New Zealand last week, and a word about lawfare and law firms.
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On today’s special crossover Sharp Tech/Sharp China episode, Ben Thompson and Bill Bishop discuss the private enterprise symposium and Xi Jinping's rapprochement with China's tech companies, and the connection between xAI and DeepSeek. Then, an extended debate on the chip ban, including its potential long-term consequences, and whether or not a course correction is possible. Finally, why the situation surround Taiwan is worrisome, and whether Trump is looking to make a deal.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin by talking through a first round of US tariffs on PRC goods and responses from the PRC earlier this week. Topics include: The fentanyl allegations that served as the predicate for these tariffs, Chinese responses that highlight points of leverage should trade tensions escalate, next steps in negotiations, and the end of the de minimis loophole. From there: Secretary of State Marco Rubio tours Latin America, the PRC's investments in Panama, and questions for the future of the Panama Canal. At the end: The PRC announces an investigation into Google, a Bloomberg report suggests Apple's being investigated for its app store policies, Apple's growth in China plateaus, and a few more thoughts on DeepSeek as Congress reacts and BIS gets a new leader.
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On today’s show Andrew and Bill wish a Happy Lunar New Year to the audience and interrupt the holiday week in the PRC to share various reactions to a week of DeepSeek discussion in the U.S. Topics include: The DeepSeek origin story, OpenAI and distillation questions, DeepSeek’s future in China after Liang Wenfeng’s meeting with Li Qiang, how the U.S. government might process these developments, and a dizzying spectrum of reactions from all around the Internet.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the fate of TikTok after a wild week of updates. Topics include: A ByteDance investor who says that TikTok may continue in the U.S. without a full divestiture, lessons for Beijing and Americans from the past few weeks, and why potential TikTok buyers might be wary of any deal structure that doesn't comply with the letter of federal law. Then: Week 1 of the Trump presidency provides some breathing room to both sides of the US-China tariff negotiations, why negotiations may not yield any structural relief to the US-China trade tensions, updates on the PRC economy, and why Beijing may be wary of a currency devaluation in the face of a new round of tariffs. At the end: Two updates on Taiwan, why the Taiwanese may want to choose better intermediaries to the U.S. government, and the absence of US-China tensions in Hollywood.
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On today’s show Bill and Andrew begin with multiple reports that Chinese officials have considered working with Elon Musk to find a resolution for TikTok in the U.S., while TikTok‘s users have flocked to Xiaohongshu and inspired a few more questions for the future. Then: Parsing Xi Jinping’s speech in the first 2025 issue of Qiushi, why both the substance of his message and his audience heighten concerns, and reactions to a new fleet of barges in Guangzhou that could factor into the PRC’s plans for Taiwan. At the end: U.S.-China updates, including a final rule from the U.S. on connected vehicles, proposed rules on AI chips, more alarms being sounded on PRC hacking, looming tech bro fissures, and the emissary from the PRC who may attend next week’s presidential inauguration.
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On a bonus episode following up on Wednesday morning's show, Andrew and Bill react to the news—which broke later Wednesday morning—that the Supreme Court has granted cert to TikTok in its appeal of the D.C. Circuit's decision earlier this month upholding the Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act. Topics include: A bit more hope for TikTok, revisiting the D.C. Circuit’s answer to the First Amendment question that’s now before the Supreme Court, various Trump unknowns, and a busy holiday season for Jones Day associates.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a few updates on the Central Economic Work Conference, economic headwinds facing the PRC economy, including weaker-than-expected retail data, mixed data from the real estate market, and concerns from an economist assessing the conditions on the ground. From there: Reactions to last week's PLA exercises around Taiwan, divergent reactions from policymakers in Taipei and Washington, and a new report on the process behind the Biden Administration's latest round of updates to the semiconductor export controls. At the end: President-elect Trump on his relationship with Xi Jinping, TikTok takes its case to the Supreme Court, and the NBA (sort of) announces plans for a series of preseason games in Macau.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the latest messaging from Beijing on efforts to stimulate the economy in 2025 and beyond. Topics include: Politburo language that echoes 2008, muted reactions from the mainland markets, why the ultimate policy decisions may not be made until the PRC has more clarity on Trump's intentions, and more. From there: Nvidia finds itself at the center of an antitrust probe, while the PRC restrictions on critical minerals are broader than initially thought, and drone components are now also being restricted from export to the US and Europe. At the end: Reviewing last Friday's verdict from the DC Circuit in TikTok v. Garland, and charting the next steps for TikTok and the Trump administration as January 19th approaches and TikTok faces a ban in the United States.
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On today’s show Andrew and Bill return from the holiday break with reactions to the latest round updates to the US export controls on semiconductors. Topics include: Why some think the updates are weaker than they should’ve been, takeaways from the past two years of chip controls, TikTok’s new hopes, and whether the U.S. has now passed the peak of tough-on-China policies. From there: The suspension of Admiral Miao Hua, member of the Central Military Commission and director of the Political Work Department of the PLA, reports (and denials) that Defense Minister Dong Jun is under investigation, and thoughts on the way into the CEWC after November comes and goes without a public announcement of a Politburo meeting. At the end: Trump threatens 100% tariffs over a BRICS currency that does not yet exist, Beijing continues to guess at Trump’s objectives with tariff policy, the latest on the US telecommunications hack, and good news for unfairly maligned grandmothers in the PRC.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin by parsing the PRC readout from this weekend's meeting between XI Jinping and President Joe Biden, including the four red lines communicated by the PRC to the US, PRC language surrounding enhanced security ties between the US and pacific allies, and a farewell to the San Francisco vision. From there: Xi Jinping's message to APEC and the charm offensive planned for a Trump administration, China's calculus amid global climate initiatives, and extended thoughts on the recent mass casualties events around China and likely party responses. At the end: An update on the Trump transition, Howard Lutnick is picked to run the Commerce Department, and Apple and Google's calculus with respect to the TikTok law.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Friday's announcement from the NPC standing committee and more incremental stabilization measures from PRC leadership. Topics include: Foreign investors (again) hoping for more, "deepening reforms" and domestic consumption, the trade surplus with the US exceeds the trillion dollar threshold, and why attempts to build an alliance with the EU are unlikely to succeed. From there: Taiwan considers a big arms purchase as Trump prepares to take office, the Philippines aims to buy intermediate range missile launchers, and TSMC halts the sale of advanced chips to China. At the end: Trump's early cabinet picks, another report on Trump's plans for TikTok, the "reverse Nixon" dream, and Elon Musk's mother is a brand ambassador in the PRC.
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On today’s show Andrew and Bill talk through a second Donald Trump presidency and what it might mean for US-China relations. Topics include: a note of congratulations from Xi Jinping Thursday morning, memories of the first Trump presidency, the calculus from both sides as tariffs loom, a larger toolkit of responses to trade policy for the PRC, potential intermediaries between Trump's administration and PRC leadership, and the strategic challenges and opportunities that China sees in a Trump administration. At the end: TikTok’s fate and whether Trump will save the app’s future in the United States, additional details on the Salt Typhoon telecommunications hack, and thoughts on the Biden administration's approach to the PRC, and the challenges facing any U.S. administration.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with an excellent report from Semi Analysis, and the state of the U.S. export controls on semiconductors and chipmaking equipment. Topics include: New reports of TSMC sales to Huawei-linked firms, the Commerce Department's oversight of chip controls, the various loopholes being routinely exploited by SMIC, Huawei and related entities, and enforcement questions for future administrations. From there: The NPC Standing Committee meeting is set for next week, the latest reports on what might be announced, and questions concerning the timing of the meeting, which will coincide with the US election. At the end: The PRC's crackdown on the private tutoring industry might be lifting, and reports that Chinese hackers targeted data from both Presidential campaigns.
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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Xi Jinping's visit to the16th BRICS Summit and Russia's rumored effort to build a platform for international payments that would be immune to Western sanctions. From there: The Power of Siberia-2 pipeline that may or may not materialize, waiting for news on the next meeting of the NPC standing committee, and one theory on how the US election could impact the timing of the next fiscal announcement. Then: Xi's visit to a PLA Rocket Force brigade in Anhui, the rhetoric Xi uses surrounding the PLA and its readiness, and thoughts on the continued buildout of the PRC nuclear arsenal. At the end: A note on Taiwan's energy security, clarity on the names of the National Zoo’s new pandas, and a flurry of reports and questions surrounding Huawei, TSMC and the Commerce Department's oversight of export controls on chipmaking equipment.
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