Episodit
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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Sudan from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined again by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell to discuss Sudan’s war on the eve of its first anniversary. They talk about what’s happening on the battlefield, particularly recent gains by the Sudanese Armed Forces against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which had appeared to have the upper hand. They unpack the humanitarian crisis, with millions displaced and aid access restricted by the warring parties as famine looms. They also discuss internal dynamics within Sudan’s Armed Forces, which increasingly rely on Islamist brigades and other armed groups, and the RSF. They examine outside powers’ roles, with Egypt supporting and Iran reportedly selling drones to the army, the United Arab Emirates widely thought to be arming the RSF, and how foreign involvement has evolved. They also discuss the difficulties of getting the warring parties’ leaders to talk even about a ceasefire, let alone a more sustainable end to the fighting, and the difficulties of returning Sudan to a civilian-led post-war transition.
For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our latest statement Sudan: A Year of War and our Sudan country page.
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In this episode of The Horn, Alan Boswell talks with Tom Perriello, recently appointed U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan, about the obstacles to peace in Sudan after a year of fighting and Washington’s plans to revitalise diplomatic efforts to end the conflict. They unpack the challenging task of bringing the leaders of the warring parties in Sudan to the negotiating table as the conflict continues to proliferate throughout the country amid a worsening humanitarian crisis. They discuss prospects for aligning the interests of outside actors involved in the fighting, notably Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, what a concerted effort to end the conflict could look like as well as potential sticking points to a peace deal. They also talk about how the country could return to a political process once the fighting has subsided.
For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our recent statement Sudan: A Year of War and our Sudan country page.
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Puuttuva jakso?
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In this episode of The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Enrica Picco, Crisis Group’s Central Africa Project Director, about Mahamat Déby’s rule in Chad as the country heads for elections in May. They discuss Déby’s ascendance to power after the death of his father in 2021 and his initial promises for democratic transition and national dialogue. They assess the fallout of the war in Sudan in Chad and how Déby’s alleged support for the Rapid Support Forces has been received among his support base. They talk about the crackdowns on the Chadian opposition, the killing of Déby’s main political rival Yaya Dillo in February and what to expect in the elections next month. They also discuss Déby’s relations with other military leaders in the Sahel and his seeming turn to Moscow and other regional powers for security partnerships as relations with its traditional Western backers, notably France, are turning increasingly fraught.
For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Chad country page.
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This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Alsanosi Adam, an active member of Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs), a youth-led grassroots network providing aid and basic services for civilians in many areas across the country, especially in the capital Khartoum area, about Sudan’s humanitarian crisis after almost a year of war. They talk about the harsh living conditions in Sudan’s urban areas and the difficulties civilians face in accessing food and medicine throughout the country. They unpack how the local responder networks operate in the areas controlled by the two warring parties and their challenging task of reaching civilians in need. They discuss the looming famine and the potential acceleration of the humanitarian crisis in Sudan should aid access remain restricted. They talk about how the ERRs ensure financial transparency and accountability in their operations. They also discuss what role Sudan’s grassroots networks should play in a future peace process.
For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out last year’s episode with Maryam Elfaki, The Future of Sudan’s Resistance Committees and our Sudan country page.
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In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks to Diego Da Rin, Crisis Group’s Haiti expert, and Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Africa Director, about the latest surge in gang violence in Haiti, which has put the state on the brink of collapse, and the potential of an international mission led by Kenya to restore security. They talk about the deep crisis in Haiti and why gangs in the country are trying to overthrow Prime Minister Ariel Henry’s government. They talk about Henry’s visit to Kenya, what’s behind Nairobi’s decision to lead an international mission to Haiti and why it has faced opposition in Kenya’s courts. They assess the political risks involved for Nairobi in sending police forces to Haiti and how gangs in the country might react to such a deployment. They also discuss fast-moving events, whether Henry is now stranded abroad, and whether a foreign deployment still looks feasible.
For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our briefing Haiti’s Gangs: Can a Foreign Mission Break Their Stranglehold? and our Haiti country page
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In this episode of The Horn, Alan speaks with Liesl Louw-Vaudran, Crisis Group’s senior advisor to the AU, about the highlights of the 2024 AU Summit, the continental body’s priorities for the year ahead and whether the annual summit moved the needle on addressing many of the continent’s major crises and conflicts. They break down the main files discussed at this year’s summit, particularly the worsening security crisis in eastern Congo, rising tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia over sea access and the string of coups in West Africa. They also discuss the AU’s lacklustre response to the war in Sudan and whether the body can take a more tangible role in resolving the conflict in the year ahead. They examine the AU’s push for a larger role on the global stage and deepening fault lines between AU members and Western countries, including over the war in Gaza. They also discuss the election of a new AU chair and the upcoming race for a new chair of the AU Commission. They also discuss whether African leaders think the AU is suffering an institutional crisis.
For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our briefing Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2024 and our African Union & Regional Bodies page.
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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on The Horn from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Africa Director Murithi Mutiga to discuss Horn of Africa politics, including Ethiopia’s push for sea access, Sudan’s war, Kenya’s regional role and Gulf rivalries playing out in the region. They talk about a recently announced deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland, the breakaway northern region of Somalia, that would see Ethiopia lease part of the Somaliland coast reportedly in exchange for Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland’s statehood. They discuss the reaction in Somalia, which rejects Somaliland independence, and whether anti-Ethiopian sentiment could strengthen Islamist militant group Al-Shabaab. They also talk about growing hostility between Ethiopia and Eritrea. They discuss increasing foreign involvement in Sudan’s war and the former paramilitary Rapid Support Forces’ advances. They touch on the regional role that Kenyan President William Ruto appears to aspire to and the evolving influence of Western powers, especially the U.S., in the Horn.
For more on the topics discussed in this episode, visit our Horn of Africa regional page.
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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Eastern Africa, to discuss the fallout of the Ethiopia-Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding for Somalia and the region. They talk about Hargeisa’s motivations for the port deal with Addis Ababa and Mogadishu’s response. They look at what deteriorating relations between Ethiopia and Somalia could mean for the offensive against Al Shabaab as well as regional stability generally. They examine the flurry of diplomacy by Somalia aimed at rallying opposition to the deal. They also discuss whether Ethiopia could make a pitch for greater sea access that would benefit both Somalia and Somaliland.
For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Horn of Africa regional page.
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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Christopher Clapham, Ethiopia expert and professor emeritus at the University of Cambridge. They unpack the context of Ethiopia’s major new quest for sea access, the regional tensions created by this public demand, and the tidal waves from the recent Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland that is fiercely opposed by Somalia and others. They also discuss the dire internal situation inside Ethiopia and whether the proliferating crises inside the country could continue to escalate. They also discuss the historic and current involvement of external actors in the region, including Gulf states.
For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our briefing Ethiopia’s Ominous New War in Amhara and our Ethiopia country page.
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In this Special Episode of The Horn, we are bringing you a panel discussion on Sudan moderated by Crisis Group’s President and CEO, Comfort Ero, at the 2023 Doha Forum. Comfort is joined by U.S. Special Envoy for The Horn of Africa Mike Hammer, UN Special Envoy for The Horn of Africa Hanna Tetteh, founding director of the Sudan-focused think tank Confluence Advisory, Kholood Khair and Crisis Group’s Africa director Murithi Mutiga. They assess the latest diplomatic push to try and get a ceasefire in Sudan, ways to better coordinate mediation efforts and the difficult task of bringing the warring parties in Sudan to the negotiating table. They discuss the investments needed to better protect civilians in Sudan and the state of civilian efforts to unify against the war. They also highlight how a prolonged war in Sudan risks further destabilising an already fragile region.
Find the link to the video recording of the full panel here.
For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Horn of Africa page, our Sudan page.
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In this episode of The Horn, Alan hosts a roundtable discussion with Alexander Rondos, a former diplomat and a senior advisor at the U.S. Institute of Peace, Kholood Khair, founding director of Confluence Advisory, a Sudan-focused think tank, and Abdul Mohammed, who has served in senior positions for the United Nations and the African Union, to discuss the state of diplomacy in the Horn of Africa. They talk about the war in Sudan and the risk of conflicts and crises proliferating in the Horn, absent coherent diplomatic initiatives. They discuss the rising competition among regional and international powers to head diplomacy in Sudan and elsewhere, as well as the diminished role of the U.S. They also look at how the increasing strategic importance of the Red Sea is fuelling tensions between regional powers.
This episode of The Horn is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.
For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Horn of Africa page and our Sudan page.
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In this episode of The Horn, Alan hosts a roundtable discussion with Saliem Fakir, executive director of the African Climate Foundation, Robert Muthami, a member of Kenya’s delegation to previous COPs, and Nazanine Moshiri, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Climate, Environment and Conflict in Africa to talk about Africa’s role at this year’s COP28 climate summit in Dubai. They discuss Africa’s negotiating position and priorities at this year’s climate summit, including climate financing. They look at the importance for African negotiators to speak with one voice. They explain why this year’s focus on peace and conflict is new for COP and important for African countries.
This episode of The Horn is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.
For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our COP28: A Special Series page and our Climate, Environment and Conflict page.
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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Michael Woldemariam, associate professor at the University of Maryland's School of Public Policy, to discuss the landscape in Ethiopia one year after the peace deal in Tigray. They explore how relations between Addis Ababa and Tigrayan leaders have evolved since the signing of a peace deal in Pretoria last year and the many challenges Tigray still faces today. They discuss how Abiy's wartime alliance with Eritrea and the Amhara elite broke down, leading to a new war in the Amhara region and rising tensions with Ethiopia. They also look at whether Addis Ababa’s recent bid for access to the Red Sea could raise the risks of a regional escalation.
For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our briefing Ethiopia's Ominous New War in Amhara and our Ethiopia country page.
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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Sudan from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Alan Boswell and Shewit Woldemichael to talk about the latest developments in Sudan’s civil war, where fighting between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) has been raging for almost seven months. They talk about the recent advances by the RSF in Darfur, where the Sudanese army has been largely routed, and what the recent gains mean for the war’s trajectory. They talk about the RSF’s motives in fighting and what its leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, or Hemedti, hopes to gain from the war. They discuss the army’s weakness and increasing reliance on Islamist forces formerly associated with long-serving ruler Omar al-Bashir. They also examine the dearth of serious diplomacy aimed at ending the war.
For more analysis on the war in Sudan, check out our Sudan page.
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In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks to Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Eastern Africa, and Sarah Harrison, Crisis Group’s Senior U.S. Analyst, about Somalia’s offensive against Al-Shabaab and the U.S. strategy toward the country. Alan and Omar update listeners on the stalling offensive, supported by clan militias and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). They also discuss the postponed withdrawal of ATMIS soldiers and whether the Somali government will be able to take over from the African Union forces by the end of 2024. Alan and Sarah evaluate successive U.S. administrations' approaches to Somalia as part of the Global War on Terrorism. They discuss how the Biden administration decided to send U.S. troops back to Somalia despite Biden's pledge to end the country's forever wars and whether U.S. strategy remains fit for purpose. Omar also discusses how Somalis view U.S. support.
Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our report Out of the Box: How to Rebalance U.S. Somalia Policy, our briefing Sustaining Gains in Somalia’s Offensive against Al-Shabaab and our Somalia country page.
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In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks to Dr Suliman Baldo, Executive Director of the Sudan Transparency and Policy Tracker, about the dire state of Sudan six months into the war between Sudan’s armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and whether Sudan has already collapsed. They assess the current military dynamics across the country and the internal dynamics within both the RSF and the Sudanese armed forces, as well as why there has been no serious progress towards a ceasefire. They talk about how both parties’ mobilisation of different ethnic groups amplifies further social tensions among the population. They also discuss the involvement of outside actors in the conflict and why existing peace efforts have failed to make any meaningful progress.
For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Sudan country page.
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In this episode of The Horn, Alan hosts a roundtable discussion with Dr Solomon Ayele Dersso, founder of Amani Africa, Paul-Simon Handy of the Institute for Security Studies, and Crisis Group expert Liesl Louw-Vaudran to discuss the state of peace and security in Africa. They assess the African Union’s response to the recent string of coups in West Africa and whether it still has the ability to deter military takeovers. They also talk about how the conflict in Sudan has tested the AU’s peace and security architecture and how competition between the AU and different regional bodies has hampered mediation efforts. Finally, they discuss what shape peacekeeping in Africa might take in the future and whether regional initiatives can fill the vacuum left by the departure of UN missions.
This episode of The Horn is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.
For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Q&A What Future for UN Peacekeeping in Africa after Mali Shutters Its Mission?, our previous podcast episodes on the with Liesl and Solomon and our Africa program page.
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In this first episode of The Horn’s new season, Alan Boswell talks with Annette Weber, EU special representative for the Horn of Africa, to discuss diplomacy and peacemaking in the region. They talk at length about the conflict in Sudan, the trajectory of regional and international mediation efforts, the prospects for serious ceasefire negotiations and the best ways of including civilians in a peace process. They assess whether anything can be done to improve the situation in Darfur even as national ceasefire talks falter. They also take a look at other developments in the Horn, from the unrest in Ethiopia to the region's approach to Eritrea, as well as the renewed negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the future of efforts to counter Al-Shabaab. They also discuss the growing role of Arab Gulf powers in the Horn and the changing nature of diplomacy in the region.
For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Horn of Africa regional page.
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From 22-24 August, leaders of the BRICS countries, the economic grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, will meet in Johannesburg for their annual summit. The meeting is highly anticipated as it comes at a point of growing polarisation and uncertainty on the international stage. In this rapidly changing global order, some see BRICS becoming a political counterweight to the West, but internal divides and divergent goals among the group on topics like UN reform suggest that it is far from united.
This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell is joined by Sanusha Naidu, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Global Dialogue, to discuss what to expect at the upcoming BRICS Summit. They unpack the origins of the alliance and how its goals have shifted in recent years. They talk about whether BRICS is moving from a group of emergent economies to a political bloc in opposition to the West. They also discuss how the war in Ukraine has changed dynamics within BRICS, and South Africa’s relationship with Russia, which has come under increased scrutiny. They also talk about what’s next for BRICS and where the group might look next for potential expansion.
For more in-depth analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our pages on Africa and Multilateral Diplomacy pages.
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Sudan’s famed resistance committees arose in their present form during Sudan's 2019 revolution and then spearheaded the country's resistance to military rule over the subsequent years. With the outbreak of war in April between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, these groups are scrambling to aid Sudanese caught in the war yet also face an uncertain and challenging future. Many of their members have fled for safety abroad, and those who remain face dangers on many fronts, including from the warring parties and the dire humanitarian situation.
This week on The Horn, Alan is joined by Maryam Elfaki, long and active member of the resistance committee in Sudan's northern sister city Bahri, about what is next for the revolutionary networks in the country now that they find themselves caught inside Sudan's terrible new war. They talk about the origins, structures, and internal dynamics of the resistance committees, their efforts to forge a collective political roadmap, whether anyone in Sudan can claim political legitimacy, how they view other political actors in the country, and whether resistance committees can play a direct role in any future peace talks or political process. They also talk about how resistance committees have transformed themselves into Sudan's humanitarian first responders and aim to provide the vanished services of Sudan's collapsed state.
For more in-depth analysis on the conflict in Sudan, check out our Sudan country page.
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