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After a quick run through the release of the CoreLogic First Home Buyer Report for Q3, Nick and Kelvin ponder the potential impact of the US election result and Donald Trump's return to the Whitehouse.
Then, there's the relatively inconsequential (to RBNZ's liking) Financial Stability Report to digest as well as the important official Labour Market statistics for Q3, which were better than expected on the surface but a bit of devil in the detail to be mindful of.
There were also some very interesting changes in the terms being chosen by mortgage holders in September to analyse.
Plus, how about those All Blacks?!
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After running through the highlights of the latest CoreLogic Home Value Index results for October, Nick and Kelvin delve into all the relevant data, assessing the state of our economy and business sector.
There's filled jobs data, highlighting the weakness across the labour market, detailed by @MusicalChairs14 on a twitter thread and discussed by the guys.
Kelvin also took the time to delve into the latest release from the Xero Small Business Insights showing ongoing declines in sales and increases in firms downsizing their workforce.
Things don't look great from a business perspective, however there's reason for optimism when analysing the ANZ business confidence survey, in particular expectations of future activity and inflation.
A lot to take on board, and that's without considering the detail within each of the above releases when it comes to the construction industry, alongside signs building consents may be at or approaching a respectable trough.
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Puuttuva jakso?
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Coming to you prior to the long Labour Weekend, Nick and Kelvin review all the property and lending data from the week.
Starting with a focus on property investors, following the release of the CoreLogic Monthly Chart Pack where Kelvin highlighted the upwards trend in sales to multiple property owners, as well as the RBNZ lending data showing investors taking on a greater share of lending above 65% LVR.
The other (unexpected) meaty piece of content to get stuck into was the Reserve Bank Governor's speech in the US, which Nick reviews and picks out a few quotes to help guide expectations for the next OCR review (and MPS) on November 27. Is a 75 basis point cut really a possibility?
The rest of the round up includes other insights from the chart pack (first home buyers) and lending data (interest only lending), the NZ Activity Index for September, rounding out Q3 in anticipation of official GDP data (in about 6 weeks!) and a surprise hit to consumer confidence.
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Following the release of the Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI) for Q3, Nick and Kelvin the state of the construction market, including a few reasons to be optimistic, though it's fair to say caution should still remain.
A quieter week for data also allows the guys to provide an update on what's happening from a listings perspective - both for sale and for rent, plus there's a usual economic round-up (PSI, card sales) and REINZ sales and HPI to digest.
Plus, a final wrap of the CPI inflation data which was released and discussed in an extra podcast last week.
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In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released CPI inflation data for Q3.
Headline inflation is now within the target band of 1-3% but there's plenty of detail and nuance to discuss, including the breakdown of tradeable to non-tradeable and the upside and downside risks of what's to come.
Perhaps most importantly, what could it mean for the next OCR decision on November 27? Is a 75 basis point cut on the cards?
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This week, Nick chats to Logan Reardon from Loan Market Auckland.
Logan has experienced a meteoric rise in the lending world as he's become an elite advisor in little more than 5 years in the industry. Logan has amassed a dedicated team in a very short time period - all tasked with getting the best result for their clients.
Logan isn't afraid to touch on difficult discussion points either, such as the conversation with those unfortunate first home buyers who bought at the peak, or someone engaging an off-the-plan built that's decreased in value through the build.
Nick and Logan delve into all that, and more, including the market reaction to the latest OCR cut, how different property types affect buyer power and expectation, the impact of the 'market chain' and how multi-banking is so important for investors.
Logan can be contacted on [email protected].
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Befitting it's importance the RBNZ MPR and OCR review leads the podcast once again. With a few more days to digest the decision the conversation turns to the potential impact to the property market and what the next decision might be - is a further 0.75% really on the cards?
Of course it's all down to inflation, which puts this Wednesday's CPI data for Q3 firmly in the spotlight. A drop from previous 3.3% is almost guaranteed but where will the annual rate land in comparison to the RBNZ's forecast of 2.3%?
Meanwhile there's plenty other data releases to digest, from CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for September through to Stats NZ rental price information.
Check out Kelvin's article on the latest lending stats too.
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The Reserve Bank has followed through on what ‘the markets’ and bank economists were expecting, with a 0.50% OCR cut today.
Inflation is considered to already be back in the target range (official data due Tuesday 16th) and the economy is weak, with the RBNZ noting we have ample spare capacity in NZ.
Check out today’s reactionary pod for Nick and Kelvin’s take on the decision.
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This week it's a special edition guest PLUS Monday data round up.
Along with Kelvin, Nick welcomes Richard Vaughan, Regional Director at Opteon Solutions to the pod.
As Nick is fresh off a family holiday in Rotorua, he offloads to Kelvin and Richard to fill him in on a busy week for the property market, including:
The Corelogic Home Value Index results for August.Stats NZ Census data, including home ownership figuresGovernment announcement to underwrite new developmentsRBNZ data on loan terms chose in AugustEconomic data on business confidence and filled jobs.That's all before a detail preview of the Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Review, and OCR decision coming up on Wednesday (reactionary pod pending Kelvin's Jury Duty and Nick's Sydney trip).
Of course, there's still room for a bit of sports chat at the end, including Richard's pride in his Olympic gold medal winning niece Tara Vaughan (K4 500), and the NRL Grand Final.
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It’s a busy period at the moment for work travel and holidays, so this week’s episode is appearing a few days early – and we kick things off by looking at NZ’s $1m+ property markets, some of which are no surprise (e.g Auckland, Queenstown), but also some which aren’t quite as obvious.
Meanwhile, the recent economic data – such as the NZ Activity Index – hasn’t done anything to change the strong odds that the OCR is cut again on 9th October, which will keep the downwards pressure on mortgage rates. The effects of that are already showing through in mortgage lending activity, which is rising, with low-deposit activity also picking up.
Looking ahead, we’re awaiting filled jobs data, business confidence, dwelling consents, and figures on the loan terms being chosen by new borrowers – short fixes have been popular lately, so it’ll be interesting to see how August’s figures shape up.
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With Kelvin away on holiday Nick calls up Mark Harris from New Zealand Sotheby's International Realty hear what's going on the premium property market, including the always-of-interest Queenstown Lakes district.
Mark also speaks about the impact of the foreign buyer ban and the potential for it to be loosened in order to increase foreign investment into the NZ economy.
Mark then delves into other policy changes - shortening of the Brightline test, reintroduction of interest deductibility, loosening of LVRs and introduction of DTIs. It's all covered in a wide-ranging chat which also includes a roundup of last week's data releases - importantly the GDP result for Q2, and what it could mean for the RBNZ's next OCR call on October 9.
And make sure you download the latest monthly chart pack to keep at your side for future reference.
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Following the latest update to the CoreLogic Mapping the Market tool, visualising values and value change by suburb, Nick and Kelvin discuss some of the results as well as the awesome level of info freely available to anyone who's interested. The results illustrate the recent weakness of the property market, but also the importance of keeping a long term view as the better-looking 12 month view shows.
Then from an economic perspective there's plenty to sink your teeth into (or should it be to swallow your ears?) with both net migration and rental prices continuing to slow.
The rental price data was also part of the broader price indices tracking from Stats NZ and on that note things continue to look good that inflation will be back below the 3% annual rate by the end of the quarter.
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A week on the road, combined with the latest HVI data and RBNZ lending stats leads Nick and Kelvin to discussing all the considerations for picking the term of fixed loans.
There's also Stats NZ building work put in place data for Q2 to cover off the other key topic of the moment - construction. While caution remains, there appears to be signs of optimism, though we also wouldn't get carried away with any rays of sunshine foreshadowing the dawn of summer.
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Kelvin's article is the main source of conversation this week, as the recent lift in upsizers and smaller investors takes focus, as well as a look into who are securing recent new builds.
This also flows well into a chat about the latest RBNZ lending data looking into market reaction from looser LVRs and DTIs. Another key point of note reamins the higher levels of bank switchers too.
From a broader economic perspective there's a promising result from the recent business confidence survey, but expectations still remain in check from both consumer confidence and filled jobs data. Plus, there's also reason to remain cautious of the encouraging building consent figures.
Lastly, a deeper look into regional business costs comes courtesy of a question from Nathan and the granularity of the Cordell construction cost data.
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This week, Nick chats to Cam Muggeridge, Adviser for Loan Market Central, in Auckland.
Cam has extensive knowledge of the lending sector, insurance, and property development industry. With his experience coming up through the advisor world, Cam has a thorough understanding of the home loan process and a passion for making that process easy to understand and as stress-free as possible for his clients.
In this chat with Nick, Cam outlays how the market has reacted to the recent fall in the OCR. How it has seen enquiries from both new and existing clients interested in making the reduction work for them.
Cam also details what the discussion looks like when it comes to breaking fixed rates with banks and how to manage expectations and stress levels in the new decreasing interest rate environment.
With his background in property development, Cam also offers insight into his conversations and expectations for the still-vulnerable construction sector.
Lastly Cam ponders the impact of open banking on NZ.
Cam can be contacted on [email protected], 027 687 5785 or google for him and the rest of the team at Loan Market Central.
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This week, off the back of the release of the latest Monthly Chart Pack, Nick and Kelvin discuss the stats of listings on the market, both for sale and for rent.
There are so many factors to consider, including migration, investor regulations, local job markets and first home buyer activity and the truth is there's no easy explanation of why the markets are where they are currently at. The latest read of data can help though.
Elsewhere there's REINZ latest release to pore over and a bunch of economic data, essentially reiterating the struggling economy.
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5 days later and the OCR cut to 5.25% still feels like big news. Since the call from the RBNZ, Nick and Kelvin have both been out in the market gathering responses from the market and today Nick details some figures to help answer the question "how far do interest rates need to fall before the dent-to-income restrictions kick in?"
Kelvin then takes us through the release of the CoreLogic Housing Affordability report for Q2 and plenty of macro-economic releases, including a few of the 'softer', but more frequent data series that the RBNZ are also paying closer attention to.
This month's video is now on YouTube.
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In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released MPS and with it, a drop in the OCR.
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With the Labour market stats covered off in the reactionary pod last week, Nick and Kelvin's minds turn quickly to the big release from the RBNZ this week, their Monetary Policy Statement.
There's has been plenty of speculation, criticism and advice about what to do but ultimately it's hard not to see the Bank being consistent with their plan to err on the side of caution and delay any loosening until inflation is truly under control, with concrete data to support it.In other news, the Pain & Gain report for Q2 reflected the market in retreat and first home buyers remain active in comparison to other buyers.
Lastly, how lucky were the ABs and NZ Rugby that Olympic gold-medal fever took over to detract from a pretty woeful performance in front of a disappointing crowd in Wellington? Not that it bothered Nick and his son, in attendance, too much.
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This week, Nick chats to Michelle Isemonger, Adviser for Loan Market East, in Auckland.
Michelle brings a youthful exuberance to being an advisor while drawing extensively from the successful experience around her.
Nick and Michelle cover a lot in this chat, from first home buyer priorities to mover preferences, all the way to what's going on with interest rates and the basis for deciding how long to fix your mortgage.
Plenty of regulatory chat in there too, from the shortening of Brightline test to all the CCCFA changes over the years, this discussion will give all listeners plenty of ammo when it comes to understanding and discussing the current housing market.
Michelle can be contacted on [email protected] or google for her and Team Patton.
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