Episodit
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This episode was recorded three days after Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election. It brings together WOLAâs president, Carolina JimĂ©nez Sandoval, Vice President for Programs Maureen Meyer, and Director for Defense Oversight Adam Isacson. Together, they possess a combined seven decades of experience working on human rights, democracy, and U.S. policy toward Latin America. All worked on these issues, plus borders and migration, through the first Trump administration.
Maureen, Carolina, and Adam discuss what Trumpâs win means for democratic backsliding and relationships with authoritarian governments region-wide, as well as for migration policy, drug policy, cooperation with Mexico, and U.S. foreign aid and security programs.
Both Maureen and Carolina emphasize the importance of journalists, human rights defenders, advocacy groups, and other elements of civil society. Their role in protecting checks and balances and promoting accountability has never been more crucial. The civic space that they need to do their work is at great risk of closure amid attacks on independent media, disinformation, and threats of retribution emanating from the president-elect and his allies.
They note that a Trump presidency will probably reverse the U.S. governmentâs uneven but improving record as a force helping to shore up democratic rule, which has been eroding in the region and worldwide. Guatemalaâwhere the presence or absence of U.S. support has been crucial for fair elections and anti-corruption effortsâis a key example. The incoming administrationâs transactional, ideological stance risks withdrawing support for democratic rule, empowering autocrats with severe consequences for basic rights.
While the Biden administration curtailed access to asylum and did little to improve accountability for U.S. border forcesâ human rights abuses, Maureen, Carolina, and Adam warn that Trumpâs plans for the border and immigration could indelibly stain the United States. The president-electâs proposed policiesâclosing migration pathways, âmass deportation,â militarization of border securityâthreaten to cause mass suffering and greatly complicate U.S. relations with Mexico and other regional governments.
Humanitarian organizations on the border, migrant shelters, and legal service providers, they point out, are especially in need of solidarity as they are now at risk of being targeted on a federal level, as Texasâs government has sought to do at the state level.
Carolina recalls that âWOLA has survived for over 50 years because we are part of an ecosystem that is under threat but resilient⊠It's time to stick together and support each other and to do our work with more commitment and more energy than ever.â
Adam adds, âTimes like these are the reason we exist⊠Stay with us.â
Thank you for listening, and take care of yourself and your community.
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In September 2024, Mexicoâs legislature quickly approved a series of constitutional reforms at the behest of outgoing president AndrĂ©s Manuel LĂłpez Obrador. The revisions, among other things, fundamentally change the nature of the countryâs judiciary and fundamentally and permanently change the role of the armed forces in public security.
Under the overhaul of Mexicoâs judiciary, citizens will now directly elect all judges, increasing the likelihood of eroding the judicial branchâs independence. That, in turn, could complicate accountability for organized crime activity, corruption, and human rights abuses.
Another reform places the National Guard, a recently created internal security force whose members are mostly former soldiers, directly within the Defense Ministry. This further cements significant increases in military participation in internal security, immigration control, public works, and the economy during the LĂłpez Obrador administration.
These changes pose likely setbacks to the struggle to hold people and institutions accountable for human rights abuse and corruption, and they threaten to weaken the quality of Mexicoâs democracy.
In this episode, WOLAâs director for Mexico, Stephanie Brewer, and Lisa Sanchez, the director of MĂ©xico Unido Contra la Delincuencia (MUCD), explain the constitutional reforms and their likely consequences.
âThis particular constitutional reform fully militarized public security at the federal level by turning the National Guard into a fourth armed force,â said SĂĄnchez. âWhat we did was to fully and permanently militarize public security at the federal level in Mexico for good.â
While these reforms are not a âfatal blowâ for Mexicoâs democracy, Brewer pointed out, they create even more adverse conditions for âvictims, survivors, family members, civil society, NGOs, and othersâ working for rights and justice in the country. âThey really need our attention, and our support from the international community. We need to be listening to their voices.â
From WOLA: Judicial Reform in Mexico: A Setback for Human Rights (Español) From MUCD: Reforma de Guardia Nacional concreta estrategia militarista; la democracia estå en riesgo; Recursos sobre la militarización -
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This podcast episode features Kendra McSweeney and Fritz Pinnow, part of a team investigating a new trend: the emergence of coca cultivation in Central America.
McSweeney, a professor of geography at Ohio State University, has research human-environment interactions, cultural and political ecology, conservation and development, resilience, demography, and land use/cover change. Pinnow is a Honduras-based journalist and documentary photographer specializing in illicit economies, violence and development in Central America.
Photo credit: Fritz PinnowMcSweeney and colleagues have published an article in the journal Environmental Research Letters examining the recent and growing appearance of coca leaf cultivation in Central America, a crop historically associated with the Andean region. McSweeney and Pinnow discuss the environmental and market conditions driving coca cultivation in Honduras and Guatemala. They note that those attempting coca cultivation in the region have competitive advantages over Colombian growers, such as more favorable growing conditions.
They stress that it would be a serious error to respond to this phenomenon with another forced eradication program. Past crop-eradication strategies, which have almost always been uncoordinated with governance, rule of law, basic services, land formalization, or anti-poverty efforts, have failed and in fact ended up encouraging the planting of coca in new areas.
The drug trade, McSweeney and Pinnow state, gains much of its power and wealth from the price premium made possible by the coca plantâs illegality. The inflated prices make it very difficult to offer viable economic alternatives in poor rural areas. âCurrent drug policy,â McSweeney says, âsystematically undermines any other efforts at rural or urban development in these countries.â
âIf weâve learned anything from supply side drug control in South America, itâs that eradicating coca crops and trying to shut down trafficking organizations, and trying to shut down the cartels, and trying to go after the Pablo Escobarâs and their successorsâ it generates a lot of Netflix content, but it doesn't do anything to reduce the amount of drugs that make it into the United States and other countries⊠What weâve seen from these approaches and after 40 years of the drug war and billions of dollars spent to eradicate the cocaine trade is more coca being produced in Colombia than ever before, more places with coca being produced, the price of cocaine is lower than it's been in decades, the quality of the cocaine is the highest it's ever been, and it's easier to get than it ever was before.â
To stay engaged with drug war reform, McSweeney and Pinnow recommend connecting with Students for Sensible Drug Policy (SSDP) and The Centre for the Study of Illicit Economies, Violence and Development (CIVAD).
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WOLAâs President Carolina Jimenez Sandoval is joined by Laura Cristina Dib, WOLAâs director for Venezuela to discuss the state of Venezuela since NicolĂĄs Maduroâs self proclaimed and highly contested July 28 electoral victory. This is a continuation of WOLAâs July 30 podcast, âThe Scrutiny Should Be Public to All Citizens:â the aftermath of Venezuelaâs July election, with Laura Dib.
Carolina and Laura discuss events since Venezuelaâs National Electoral Council (CNE) declared President NicolĂĄs Maduro the winner by a 51 to 44 percent margin, denied publishing a breakdown of the vote, and suspended the auditing process. The Venezuelan opposition published most official voting tally sheets on an independent website showing opposition candidate Edmundo GonzĂĄlez Urrutiaâs electoral victory with 67 percent of the vote (verified by independent media outlets).
Carolina and Laura explain the varying forms of resistance and outcry by Venezuelan citizens, the Venezuelan diaspora, and the international community, and the extreme forms of repression with which the government has responded, including over 1,500 detentions including 129 minors, 23 homicides, passport annulments, social media bans, and a new NGO restriction law.
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On July 28, 2024, Venezuela held a long-awaited presidential election. More than 25 years after Hugo ChĂĄvez was first elected, his successor, Nicolas Maduro, ran for a third term. The opposition coalesced around a candidate; despite many obstacles, the opposition had a big enthusiasm advantage, and turnout on July 28th was very high.
In the end, though, Venezuelaâs national elections authority declared Maduro the victor, without offering any detail about the vote. As we record this, street protests appear to be intensifying and governments around the region are demanding more transparency about the count.
Laura Dib, the director of WOLAâs Venezuela program, explains here what is happening and what is at stake for the Venezuelan people and for the international community.
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On March 14-22, 2024, the UN Commission on Narcotic Drugs (CND) held its 67th annual session in Vienna, Austria. The session saw a landmark vote that may have important repercussions for drug policy, in Latin America and elsewhere.
The commission approved a U.S.-led resolution encouraging countries to implement âharm reductionâ measures to respond to drug overdoses and to protect public health.
The vote marks a major breakthrough in civil societyâs decades-long advocacy to center harm reduction, especially since the U.S. government has a history of blocking all such resolutions, and since the Commission has a longstanding tradition of enactment by a âVienna Consensusâ without votes.
This episode features three guests who helped lead civil societyâs robust participation at the CND:
Ann Fordham, executive director of International Drug Policy Consortium (IDPC)
Lisa Sanchez, executive director of MĂ©xico Unido Contra la Delincuencia (MUCD)
John Walsh, director for drug policy and the Andes at WOLA
The three experts underscore that while the vote on this resolution was a major win in the civil society-led harm reduction fight, it is just one milestone along a longer journey. The fight must continue to ensure this sets the foundation for an international drug policy that truly prioritizes protecting people, views drug addiction as a public health and not a national security issue, and moves away from the normative framework of achieving a âdrug free societyâ through punitive measures and prohibition.
âThe prohibition regime has tried to make itself inevitable and âforever,â and thatâs not the case⊠There's no reason to think that it needs to last forever. In fact, as we said, it was a misfit from the very beginning,â says John Walsh. âDrug use has always existed, it always will. To suggest that we're going to create a âdrug-free worldâ is not only futile, but it's downright dangerous because of its consequences⊠I think this is an opening to think more broadly about not just the UN drug policy space, but what governments need to do for the health, safety, and well-being of their populations.â
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El Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele just won re-election by a broad margin as a massive security crackdown has reduced gangsâ role in everyday life. But the increasingly authoritarian âBukele modelâ has a big long-term downside, Douglas Farah explains.
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It has been almost a month since Nayib Bukele was reelected as President of El Salvador by a very wide margin, despite a constitutional prohibition on re-election. While security gains and a constant communications blitz have made Bukele popular, our guest, Douglas Farah of IBI Consultants, highlights some grave concerns about the âBukele Modelâ and where it is headed.
Among these: pursuit of an âauthoritarian playbookâ common to many 21st-century political movements, with eroding checks and balances; vastly weakened transparency over government activities; a complicated relationship with gangs and their integration into the political structure; an unsustainable reliance on mass incarceration; and erosion of the independence and professionalism of the police, military, and judiciary.
In this episode, Farah argues:
The success of Bukeleâs security model may not be as pronounced as is publicly accepted. The human rights cost is very high, with about 75,000 people arrested, far more than earlier estimates of gang membership. Bukeleâs model uses elements from the âauthoritarian playbook,â including undoing public access laws, eliminating accountability for government spending, consolidating media control, threatening independent media, and relying on armies of social media accounts and traditional media outlets to dominate the political conversation. Toleration of human rights abuse and corruption has undone a police reform that was a key element of the countryâs 1992 peace accords. MS-13 is not defeated: its leaders avoid extradition while maintaining close relationships with authorities, while some of its affiliates serve as legislative âalternates.â The influence of China is real but probably overstated, as the country offers few resources and little overall strategic value. While it does not make strategic sense to criticize the popular president frontally, the Biden administration needs to be more consistent and less timid in its critique of specific policies and anti-democratic trends.
Douglas Farah is President of IBI Consultants, a research consultancy that offers many of its products online. He was formerly bureau chief of United Press International in El Salvador, a staff correspondent for The Washington Post, and a senior visiting fellow at the National Defense University's Center for Strategic Research. He is a 1995 recipient of the Columbia Journalism Schoolâs Maria Moors Cabot Prize for outstanding coverage of Latin America. -
A January outbreak of criminal violence in Ecuador made headlines worldwide. Now, a new government is cracking down in ways that recall other countries' "mano dura" policies, and the U.S. government stands ready to help. Is this the right way forward?
While this isnât the first time Ecuadorâs government has declared a state of exception, the prominence of organized crime and the consequential rise in insecurity is a new reality for the country. Ecuador has seen a six-fold homicide rate increase in three years; it now South Americaâs worst, and Ecuadorians are the second nationality, behind Venezuelans, fleeing through the DariĂ©n Gap.
How did this happen? How can Ecuadorâs government, civil society, and the international community address it?
This episode features International Crisis Group Fellow and author of the recent report Ecuadorâs Descent Into Chaos, Glaeldys Gonzalez Calanche, and John Walsh, WOLAâs director for drug policy and the Andes. The discussion covers how Ecuador suddenly reached such high levels of insecurity, the implications of President Daniel Noboaâs state of emergency and âstate of internal armed conflictâ declarations, an evaluation of international drug markets and state responses, and a look at U.S. policy.
Gonzalez attributes the lead-up to Ecuadorâs violent new reality to three factors:
Ecuadorâs gradual transition into a position of high importance in the international drug trade. The prison system crisis and the governmentâs incapacity to address it. The fragmentation of Ecuadorian criminal groups after the demobilization of Colombiaâs FARC and the decline of Los Choneros, a criminal group with former hegemonic control.Gonzalez describes the state of emergency as âa band-aid solution to control the situation now, but not looking really to tackle these structural problems.â
Walsh describes Ecuadorâs case as a âwake up callâ to the consequences of the drug war prohibitionist approach: âThis isnât just a drug policy question. This is a question about democracies delivering on the basic needs of their citizens, which is security. And I think prohibition in the drug war doesnât support security. It tends to undermine it.â John calls on the international community to recognize this as a humanitarian issue as well, indicating that âpeople are basically held hostage. Not in their house, but in their whole community.â
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After relentless attempts to block his inauguration and a nine-hour delay, Bernardo ArĂ©valo, who ran for Guatemalaâs presidency on an anti-corruption platform, was sworn into office minutes after midnight on January 14.
In this highly educational episode, WOLA Director for Central America Ana MarĂa MĂ©ndez DardĂłn is joined by WOLA Senior Fellow Jo-Marie Burt. Both were in Guatemala witnessing the high-tension event that was ArĂ©valoâs inauguration. They cover the frustration, excitement, and symbolism that characterized the day, while also diving into a host of topics surrounding the state of Guatemalaâs democracy.
They assess the main threats to Arevaloâs leadership and the goals of his party, Movimiento Semilla, particularly those related to addressing corruption and impunity. Ana Maria and Jo-Marie touch on the distinct roles of Guatemalan indigenous communities, the United States, and the private sector. They describe the hope that Arevalo represents for the Guatemalan people in terms of security, justice, and the rule of law, while identifying the harsh realities of deeply embedded corruption a recalcitrant high court and attorney general.
Read Ana MarĂaâs January 9 commentary, Ushering in a New Period: Bernardo ArĂ©valoâs Opportunities and Challenges to Restoring Democracy in Guatemala, for a readable, in-depth analysis of these topics.
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As congressional negotiations place asylum and other legal protection pathways at risk, and as we approach a 2024 election year with migration becoming a higher priority for voters in the United States, we found it important to discuss the current moment's complexities.
WOLAâs vice president for Programs, Maureen Meyer, former director for WOLAâs Mexico Program and co-founder of WOLAâs migration and border work, is joined by Mexico Program Director Stephanie Brewer, whose work on defense of human rights and demilitarization in Mexico has focused often on the rights of migrants, including a visit to the Arizona-Sonora border at the end of 2023.
This episode highlights some of the main migration trends and issues that we should all keep an eye on this year, including:
Deterrence efforts will never reduce migration as long as the reasons people are fleeing remain unaddressed (the long-standing âroot causesâ approach). Such policies will only force people into more danger and fuel organized crime. âThe question is not, are people going to migrate? The question is, where, how, and with who?â, explains Brewer. For this reason, maintaining consistent and reliable legal pathways is more important than ever, and the ongoing assaults on these pathwaysâincluding the right to seek asylum and humanitarian paroleâare harmful and counterproductive. There canât be a one-size-fits-all solution for the variety of populations currently in movement, and the focus should no longer be on ineffective policies of deterrence and enforcement. âIt's a long term game that certainly doesn't fit on a bumper sticker for political campaigns,â Meyer points out. Organized crime is a huge factor in regional migrationâboth as a driver of migration and as a facilitator. Official corruption and impunity enable these systems, a point that migration policies often fail to address. Brewer notes that during her trip to Arizona's southern border in December 2023, the vast majority of migrants she spoke to were Mexican, and among them, the vast majority cited violence and organized crime as the driving factor. In recent months, Mexican families have been the number one nationality coming to the U.S.-Mexico border to seek asylum. It is a regional issue, not just a U.S. issue, as people are seeking asylum and integration in many different countries. Mexico, for instance, received 140,000 asylum applications in 2023. This makes integration efforts extremely important: many people arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border had attempted to resettle elsewhere first. âIt's a twofold of the legal status itself, but then real integration efforts that are both economic and educational, but also addressing xenophobia and not creating resentment in local communities,â explains Meyer. -
Maria Belén Garrido, a research lecturer at the Pontifical Catholic University of Ecuador, and Jeffrey Pugh, an associate professor at the University of Massachusetts Boston, lead the Regional Institute for the Study and Practice of Strategic Nonviolent Action in the Americas.
The institute provides training, capacity building, and networking opportunities for nonviolent social change activists in Latin America. It teaches that the success of non-violent strategies depends on the crucial âtrinityâ of planning, unity, and discipline.
Garrido and Pugh provide numerous examples of nonviolent movements in Latin America at the local and national levels, from communities declaring themselves "peace zones" in Colombia to worker âslowdownâ strikes in Chile under Pinochet. They emphasize being creative with tactics like strikes, boycotts, protests, using art and music, and leveraging media and communication.
An ongoing challenge is confronting the rise of authoritarian populism and leaders who try to control narratives and media. Maintaining nonviolent discipline is crucial to avoid playing into the hands of repressive regimes. Building diverse coalitions and identifying strategic pressure points instead of relying solely on mass messaging may be especially important today.
âWhen a great amount of people, especially a diversity of people, in ages and ethnicities, go to the streets, then probably the social distance from the members of the forces that will repress them is lower and narrower,â Garrido observes here. âAnd this will reduce the amount of repression.â
Resources from the Institute can be found at accionnoviolenta.org: the âRelatos de la Resistencia Noviolentaâ podcast, blog posts by regional activists, and an online course, one edition of which just got underway in early October 2023.
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A new report from WOLA dives deeply into the growing power and roles of Mexicoâs military, and what that means for human rights, democracy, and U.S.-Mexico relations.
WOLAâs Mexico Program published Militarized Transformation: Human Rights and Democratic Controls in a Context of Increasing Militarization in Mexico on September 6. The report voices alarm about the Mexican armed forcesâ growing list of civilian tasks, and civiliansâ diminishing ability to hold military personnel accountable for human rights abuse and other illegal behavior.
In some new findings, Militarized Transformationreveals official data showing that the military isnât even reporting its arrests of civilians to civilian security authorities and oversight bodies. The report updates and group together various indicators regarding the justice system and respect for fundamental rights by the security forces, with a focus on the armed forces and the National Guard, as well as the differentiated impacts and situations faced by women. And it makes a series of short-term and long-term recommendations for needed reforms.
This podcast episode features the reportâs principal author, Stephanie Brewer, WOLAâs director for Mexico. Brewer discusses the reportâs main findings, conclusions, and recommendations, along with a general view of Mexicoâs democracy, civil-military relations, and U.S. policy.
âWe recognize militarization is is the reality we're currently working in,â Brewer concludes. âBut while that's going on, what possible reason could there be for the country to want the armed forces not to be operating under effective civilian control or not to be transparent about things like their use of force? Or not to be fully giving information to Congress? That would have to be something that that is in everybody's interest in the short term.â
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Venezuela is to hold presidential elections sometime in 2024. Whether they will be at least somewhat free and fair, moving the country away from authoritarianism and toward democracy, is unlikely but far from impossible. It is a goal that must guide the international community and Venezuelan civil society.
That is one of the central messages of Laura Cristina Dib, WOLAâs director for Venezuela, who explains the daunting current political situation in this podcast conversation.
The episode covers the recent naming of a new National Electoral Council, a seemingly technical step with wide-ranging consequences; the need for a clear and transparent electoral timetable; and the importance of updating voter rolls and other crucial steps for the electionsâ credibility.
Laura Dib notes a recent increase in repression, threats, and disqualification of candidates as the Maduro regime appears to grow uneasy. That makes the international role increasingly importantâas it has been in Guatemalaâs electionsâstarting with a stronger commitment to a humanitarian agreement, which resulted from 2022 negotiations and has yet to be implemented. âInternationalâ includes Venezuelaâs neighbors, like Brazil and Colombia.
âThere's always hope, I don't think that everything is lost,â Dib concludes. âI think that there's always opportunity, and I continue to work very closely with a civil society that is more knowledgeable than ever on how to advocate for their rights beyond their borders.â
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Gretchen Kuhner directs the Mexico City-based Institute for Women in Migration (IMUMI). She explains the challenges and complexitiesâand occasional advocacy successesâof the current moment of record migration and changing policies, viewed from Mexico.
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Joining WOLA with partners in three countries, the Central America Monitor has tracked governance indicators during a very difficult nine years. WOLA's Elizabeth Kennedy and Lisette VĂĄsquez of the Myrna Mack Foundation explain this important work.
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From a traditional drug policy perspective, fentanyl would appear to be an intractable problem. It also threatens a rift in the U.S.-Mexico relationship. WOLA's John Walsh and Stephanie Brewer point to better ways to respond to this challenge.
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Guatemala's deteriorating democracy is approaching June elections with disqualified candidates, imprisoned or exiled judicial workers and journalists, and a U.S. policy that's hard to pin down. Analysis from WOLA Central America Program Director Ana MarĂa MĂ©ndez and Council on Foreign Relations Latin America Fellow Will Freeman.
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