Episodes
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China is top of mind for all these days, including U.S. officials. Whether it's because of military exercises against Taiwan, a trade war with the United States, or China's efforts to block a deal on Tik Tok, getting tough on Beijing seems to be the order of the day. But are we getting China right? Are agreements between the United States and China on core interests possible? Or is the current status quo the best we can do with Beijing to manage the relationship to avoid serious conflict?
Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with the Economistās David Rennie to discuss these and other issues.
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In recent days, the Netanyahu government has doubled down on its efforts to consolidate its control and ramp up its military operations in Gaza and Lebanon. Following the firing of the former director of Shin Bet, an unprecedented decision in Israelās history, the government has begun the more complicated process of terminating the attorney general, as well as changing the process by which judges are appointed. A ferocious military operation in Gaza that has taken a terrible toll on Palestinian civilians and recent anti-Hamas demonstrations have resulted in renewed negotiations on a new hostage release for ceasefire agreement. And for the first time since the Israeli-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement in November 2024, rockets launched against northern Israel triggered response strikes in the Beirut suburbs.
What does the future hold for Gaza and any longer-term agreement? Will the Netanyahu government succeed in what appears to be a renewal of the 2023 effort to increase its power and undermine Israelās judiciary? What about any hopes for a regional peace accord encompassing Palestinians and Saudi Arabia? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages former Shin Bet director Ami Ayalon on these and other issues on the next Carnegie Connects.
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Episodes manquant?
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Does public opinion matter in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? Do leaders pay attention to the changing views of their respective constituencies? Each situation presents unique challenges for analysts and scholars trying to answer these questions. And those challenges have grown exponentially more complicated in the wake of October 7, 2023, and the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.
How have Israeli and Palestinian attitudes evolved toward their leaders and the region, one another, the United Statesā role, and the war? And how do Israelis and Palestinians on all sides of the divide imagine their future, particularly whether thereās a pathway out of the ongoing crisis and any prospects for ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
Join Aaron David Miller as he engages in conversation with Dahlia Scheindlin, a political strategist and a public opinion researcher, and Khalil Shikaki, the director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, two analysts and pollsters of Israeli and Palestinian politics and public opinion, on these and other issues on the next Carnegie Connects.
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All Presidents, Jonathan Alter wrote, are blind dates. Donald Trump may be the first who isnāt. Political analysts and historians not only have Trumpās first term to gauge his temperament and policies, but the four years preceding the 2024 elections, where he previewed his agenda for his second non-consecutive term. Even with that foreshadowing, Trump has crashed through traditional norms and conventions, aggrandized presidential power, and sought to reshape American politics in ways few would have thought possible.
What lessons does history hold for us in approaching the second Trump presidency? Is it plausible to talk about the age of Trump as historians have done for certain presidents? The American experiment in democratic self-governance has been tested in the past. How will it fare going forward? Indeed, will the traditional guardrails hold and protect against the abuse of presidential power? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages in conversation with presidential historians Nicole Hemmer and Douglas Brinkley to discuss these and other issues, on the next Carnegie Connects.
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As President Trump pursues his āAmerica Firstā foreign policy agenda, much of the world is left wondering about what role the United States will now play in global affairs and the stark contrast of this administration from those that came before. Writing in Foreign Affairs in October 2023, Jake Sullivan, then the National Security Adviser to President Joe Biden, asserted that the āessence of President Bidenās foreign policy is to lay a new foundation of American strength so that the country is best positioned to shape the new era in a way that protects its interests and values and advances the common good.ā
Was the Biden Administration able to lay that new foundation of strength that might enable the U.S. to advance both its interests and its values, and cope with the complexities of a fast-changing world? Was it able to successfully mobilize its alliances and check the power and influence of its adversaries? And will the Trump administration, with a dramatically different approach to the world beyond Americaās shores, fare any better?
Join Aaron David Miller as he engages in conversation with Jake Sullivan as they look back at the last four years of Biden administrationās foreign policy and ahead to the challenges that confront the nation at home and abroad, on the next edition of Carnegie Connects.
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āThe outcome of the American election will have huge implications both for American institutions and for the world,ā Francis Fukuyama wrote in September of last year. Just a few weeks into his second term, with a slew of executive orders and controversial appointments, President Donald Trump seems determined to refashion the fabric of American politics and society with the aim of aggrandizing presidential power at the expense of Congress and the courts. Globally the new administration is worrying allies by withdrawing from the Paris Climate agreement and the World Health Organization, suspending foreign assistance, and imposing tariffs on key trading partners.
How will these efforts impact Americaās political system? Will the checks and balances the framers envisioned to constrain the abuse of power hold? What impact will the foreign and domestic policies of the new Administration have on Americaās role and image in the world?
Join Aaron David Miller as he engages in conversation with Francis Fukuyama, a nonresident scholar in the Carnegie Endowmentās Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program and the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, to discuss these and other issues.
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Three years into Russiaās war against Ukraine, two undeniable realities appear to mark its future. Russian President Vladimir Putin believes time is on his side, and ongoing political changes in Washington are stirring worries that Ukraine can no longer count on sustained levels of military, economic and political assistance. The Kremlin is not deviating from its ultimate goal of making Ukraine unlivableāÆand non-viable while restoring it to Russiaās sphereāÆof influence. Ukrainian Volodymyr President Zelensky, on the other hand, is facing acute manpower shortages and continued military setbacks.
As we enter 2025, what does the battlefield picture tell us? How will the advent of the Trump Administration impact Americaās support for Ukraine? Can Europe fill the gap should America falter? The Trump Administration has begun preliminary talks with Russia about a Putin-Trump summit. What are the prospects for a negotiated settlement to pause or end the war?
Join Aaron David Miller as he engages in conversation with Carnegie analysts and scholars Michael Kofman, Alexandra āÆProkopenko, Eric Ciaramella and AndrewāÆS.āÆWeiss to discuss these and other issues in the latest episode of Carnegie Connects.
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Over the last two years, intelligence organizations and analysts failed to anticipate critical events in the Middle East that would roil the region. The sudden collapse of the Assad regime and the opening of a new chapter in Syriaās conflict-ridden story is the latest in a fraught period that has seen an of escalation of tensions in Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran.
What explains the Assad regimeās sudden demise and the ascendance of Hayāat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other Sunni Islamist organizations? What do these events portend for Syriaās governance and the policies of Iran, Russia, Turkey, and Israel in the region? And what would be the best policy on Syria for the incoming U.S. administration?
Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, and Charles Lister, senior fellow and the director of the Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism programs at the Middle East Institute, to explore these and other issues.
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More than a year into the Israel-Hamas war, the Middle East remains mired in conflict. The war in Gaza drags on with no end in sight; the West Bank continues to seethe; the collapse of the Assad regime has activated Israeli forces along the Syrian border; and while a cease-fire deal has calmed the Israel-Lebanon border, the possibility of a serious escalation between Israel and Iran remains all too real. Meanwhile, uncertainties about U.S. policy abound as the Biden Administration gives way to one headed by President Donald Trump.
Will Israel be able to translate its recent military wins into stable security and political arrangements? What does the future hold for the hostages and the people of Gaza? Is there a diplomatic off-ramp that might preempt or prevent an Iran-Israel confrontation? And what of the future of Iranās nuclear program?
Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Ami Ayalon, the former head of Shin Bet, and Efraim Halevy, the former head of Mossad, to discuss these and other issues on Carnegie Connects.
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Beyond Russiaās invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas, the Biden administration has faced significant international challenges over the presidentās four years in office. President Biden and his team have contended with a range of issues including strategic competition, growing threats to democracies, climate change, critical minerals supply chains, and shaping the transformative potential of emerging tech to solve global problems without exacerbating regional economic inequality. When it comes to foreign policy, as George Will quipped, the American public wants as little of it as possible, but that hasnāt been the case over the last four years.
What are the key principles and assumptions that have underscored its approach to foreign policy? And what kind of world does it leave for its successors?
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell has served in the Biden administration from the beginning, first at the White House and more recently at the State Department. Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell to discuss these and other issues.
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With no shortage of conflicts in todayās world, journalists covering war zones provide indispensable reporting and analysis, often at great personal risk. Few war correspondents have more experience covering conflict than CNNāS Clarissa Ward, who has covered conflicts from Afghanistan to Ukraine, to Syria and Gaza, reporting from the worldās hot spots providing first-hand accounts of violent conflicts and their impact on civilians. Most recently, Clarissa and her crew were detained by an armed militia in Darfur.
What does it take to cover conflict? How does reporting on one conflict differ from another? And how do journalists witnessing the horrors of violent conflict keep their own emotions and feelings out of the story?
Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Clarissa Ward to discuss the challenges and travails of reporting from some of the worldās most dangerous conflict areas.
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Elections have consequences. President-elect Donald Trumpās victory carries implications for Americaās governance and role in the world that are uncertain, transformative, and potentially dangerous to American democracy.
What explains his election? Does it presage a genuine political realignment? What are the consequences of Republican control of the White House, Senate, and potentially the House? And what do they mean for a Democratic party now seemingly in the political wilderness?
Join Aaron David Miller as sits down with SE Cupp and Norman Ornstein, two of the nationās most thoughtful political analysts, to discuss these and other issues.
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Ongoing conflicts between Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran are likely to define much of the Middle East for the foreseeable future. Israel may have escalation dominance, but this will not necessarily bring about security, let alone the political accords required to bring greater stability to the region. Most serious is the new reality created by Iranian and Israeli strikes directly on one anotherās territory, posing a dangerous risk tolerance.
What are the chances for further Iranian-Israeli escalation? Does Israel have a strategy to convert its recent military successes into sustainable political achievements with Palestinians or in Lebanon? And what does the future hold for the U.S.-Israeli relationship? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with former Israeli Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Ehud Barak for a wide-ranging discussion of these and other issues in the next edition of Carnegie Connects.
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Israelās military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon has broken a status quo that could carry potentially momentous consequences for a country and a region already marked by a year of conflict. Critical questions loom. What are Israelās military objectives in the south and can they be achieved? Has the weakening of Hezbollah shifted Lebanonās internal power balance and created opportunities for strengthening state sovereignty? How will Iran respond to the weakening of its billion-dollar proxy? And are there realistic opportunities for the international community, especially the United States, to pursue diplomatic options that could produce greater stability in Lebanon and along the Israel-Lebanon border?
Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Kim Ghattas and Ambassador David Satterfield to address these and other questions on Carnegie Connects.
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During the past two weeks, the possibility of a major Middle East multi-front war has increased significantly. Israelās campaign against Hezbollah and Iranās launching of ballistic missiles against Israel has created the potential of an escalatory ladder that both Iran and Israel might climb with dangerous consequences. Iranās role and what they do next will be decisive.
Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Karim Sadjadpour, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peaceās Middle East Program, and Suzanne Maloney, vice president and director of the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, to discuss how Iran perceives the current landscape and may act as the crisis unfolds.
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Ukraineās Kursk offensive has added a new dynamic to an otherwise predictable grinding war of attrition between Russia and Ukraine. The war has now dragged on for the better part of three years, with neither Moscow nor Kyiv able to achieve their territorial objectives. Nor are there any prospects for serious negotiations that might pause or end the war.
Are there any developments on the battlefield that suggest changes in either sideās tactics and strategies in the months ahead? Have Europe and the United States developed funding and political strategies to prepare for the long war? What are the right mix of policy tools and overall strategy to help prosecute a long war in Ukraine and an open-ended confrontation with Moscow?
Join Aaron David Miller as he engages in conversation with Carnegieās own Dara Massicot and Eric Ciaramella to discuss these and other issues.
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As Lebanon was rocked by two days of exploding pagers and walkie-talkies directed at Hezbollahās communications network, killing dozens and injuring thousands, tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have risen to new heights. In a fiery speech, Hezbollahās leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed revenge.
How has this latest escalation impacted Lebanonās internal politics? What are Hezbollahās options in responding? What are the prospects for defusing not only the current crisis but the complex of issues that have shaped the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah? And what role can the U.S. and other international actors and regional parties play in avoiding an all-out war?
Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with His Excellency Abdallah BouHabib, the foreign minister of Lebanon, to discuss these and other issues.
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In a recent poll, two-thirds of American adults said they were concerned that āextremistsā will commit acts of violence following the 2024 election if they are unhappy with the results. This should come as no surprise. Earlier this year the U.S. Department of Homeland Security warned that among other threats the 2024 election cycle will be a āÆākey event for possible violence.ā How real is that threat and how would it likely manifest itself? What are the factors driving political violence in America today? And what can be done to mitigate the threat?
Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with down with former acting assistant attorney general for national security Mary B. McCord and Eric K. Ward, senior fellow at the Southern Poverty Law Center, to unpack these and other issues.
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The Middle East continues to boil. Following the Hezbollah rocket strike on a Druze town in the Golan Heights killing a dozen children, Israel targeted a top Hezbollah commander in Beirutās southern suburbs. Two days later, the head of the Hamas Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed presumably by Israel in a missile strike in Tehran while attending the inauguration of the Iranian President. Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis have all threatened retaliation.
What is the likely impact of recent events on the Gaza ceasefire talks? Is the region heading toward a major war? And is there chance for de-escalation diplomacy?
Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Amos Harel, Haaretzās military correspondent and one of Israelās leading defense analysts, to discuss these and other issues on Carnegie Connects.
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This past spring many college and university campuses were roiled by unprecedented protests sparked by the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. Not since Vietnam has any foreign policy issue resulted in such widespread demonstrations on campuses.
What explains the intensity of the reaction? Has the Israeli-Palestinian conflict become a permanent fixture of hot debate? What lessons have been learned should demonstrations reoccur this fall? And is it possible to have productive conversations about the conflict without succumbing to nationalized, polarized narratives in a toxic media environment?
Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Princeton University Dean Amaney Jamal and Columbia University Dean Keren Yarhi-Milo for a wide-ranging discussion of these and other issues. - Montre plus
