Episodes
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Markets are widely expecting the Federal Reserve to kick off its rate-cutting cycle this week. The question is how big a cut it will deliver, because “the market is exactly split” on whether it will be a quarter percentage point or a half percentage point, says the Private Bank’s EMEA CIO Dr. Dirk Steffen. “So it will either way lead to market moves.”
And as for the recent ups and downs in stocks more broadly, “We think volatility is here to stay”, Dirk says. He notes that investors will be paying increasing attention to the U.S. elections over the coming weeks, as well as the coming corporate earnings season. “In this environment we will see frequent ‘rotations’ back and forth”, Dirk says, as some interested market participants wait on the sidelines to buy the dips in certain sectors.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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Recent U.S. jobs data came in below consensus forecasts, but the Private Bank's Global CIO, Christian Nolting, says that the drop in equities that followed might have had more to do with signs of concern from the Federal Reserve. "The market doesn't like, I should say, if the Fed is a bit concerned”, Christian says, “Hence, we saw a bit negative reaction."
Christian says that a coming interest-rate decision from the European Central Bank will have a lot of focus in the week to come, but investors are also likely to be tuned in to the presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The race, Christian says, is "so close at this point in time, I think even the slightest mistake in a TV debate could have significant implications."
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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Episodes manquant?
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Summer is nearly over, and with 2nd quarter earnings reports wrapped up, investors are now setting their expectations for corporate results from the 3rd quarter, says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. “We have this time where investors are asking what's next”, Dirk says, noting that “We think it will, again, be a quite supportive earnings season.”
Key data reports this week will shed light on the U.S. labour market. “It's not only payroll Friday, it's the JOLTS report” of turnover in the labour market, Dirk says. Recent downward revisions to jobs growth from earlier in the year will likely have markets particularly attuned, especially as it will be the last monthly report before the Federal Reserve makes its next decision on interest rates.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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Following the Jackson Hole conference of central bankers last week, as well as the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting, investors are now focused on next month’s policy decision – which could include an interest-rate cut. “It’s the rates market that is pretty much dictating how the risky assets do”, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, in this week’s podcast. “Some of the recent data has been quite noisy and, when you start looking into that, it makes a lot of sense for the Fed to start cutting rates."
He also notes that markets are starting to pay more attention to U.S. politics, and that this may have played a role in recent volatility. In the week ahead, key reports to watch will include durable goods orders, earnings guidance from a major name in artificial intelligence, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge at the end of the week.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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This week's Jackson Hole conference will be in focus for investors because "we can discuss what central bankers have in store," says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. He also says that while markets have shown some signs of calming after a bout of sharp moves, he expects volatility could remain a factor for some time.
"There are of course important things happening in the eurozone as well," he adds, pointing to some hesitancy at the European Central Bank to aggressively cut interest rates amid "abundant" price risks. Data on inflation and negotiated wages there could have an impact on expectations for policy decisions to come.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, explains what investors should be watching for after a recent stretch of volatility in markets. “Volatility has come down a little bit, which I think is positive”, Christian says, while noting that some of the key considerations remain: the strength of the global economy, the ongoing corporate earnings season, and the direction of central-bank policy.
Christian says this week’s U.S. inflation figures will be “very important, because the Fed ultimately needs to look at inflation, what’s the development there.” But he also said that geopolitical risks are on investors’ minds, and that a possible escalation in the Middle East could bring volatility back up. “That is a very important thing to watch.”
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen discusses the Federal Reserve’s pivot for a rate cut this year, and data points leading to September.
For Japan, Stefanie says the Bank of Japan (BoJ) confirmed its second rate hike for this year (up from 0-0.1% to 0.25%), and also announced quantitative easing.
All eyes are now on next week’s wage data, which will test repriced assumptions for BoJ’s next steps.
Australia and India’s central banks are due to meet this week, and the CIO expects the RBA and RBI to hold steady this month.
In China, recent data disappointments have shown continued weakness so this week’s important trade and inflation data will be even more closely monitored.
Stefanie also discussed the outcome of China’s Third Plenum which committed to long term structural changes, but continues to link these to its short-term goal of achieving 5% growth this year. For instance, by launching a 300bn RMB extended programme to encourage domestic investor trading in consumables.
Tune in and listen to Stefanie’s key thoughts for the week ahead.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen discusses repricing in markets and monetary policy. In considering a September rate cut, Stefanie says the Federal Reserve needs to balance economic growth, inflation, and job market risks when it meets this week.
Europe is also repricing in anticipation for when second quarter GDP data is announced this week, which may show slower growth. However, an inflation surprise, with data due mid-week, could lower the probability of the ECB’s next rate cut in September.
For Japan, Stefanie says markets have been repricing on expectations that the Bank of Japan could hike rates in July. Furthermore, she sees the recent strengthening of the Japanese Yen also as linked to the easing of the US dollar, due to frontloaded rate cut expectations from the Fed and speculation the Bank of Japan may at least start to reduce bond purchases.
For China’s Renminbi, the easing US dollar also plays a role for the People’s Bank of China. Stefanie also discusses upcoming PMI data, with early indicators pointing to a further slowdown in manufacturing data in July. But summer travel spending may boost consumer data in the months ahead.
Tune in and listen to Stefanie’s key thoughts for the week ahead.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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Deepak Puri, Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, outlines what recent economic data could mean for Fed policy, and offers a view on U.S. equities as well as geopolitical considerations for investors.
An update on GDP and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge will be in the spotlight this week. But recent economic reports suggest we're getting closer to the comfort zone for the Fed to move rates. Deepak says, "The US economy is not breaking, but is bending to a somewhat slower trajectory."
Asked whether political events are reflected in market developments, Deepak says "a hundred days before the general elections, volatility tends to pick up", adding that "we're entering a somewhat challenging time."
Finally, commenting on U.S. equities, Deepak says "just like in the previous few quarters, the big focus is on big tech, because the Mag 7 are expected to grow earnings at 30% year-over-year compared to the overall index of around 9%."
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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Dirk Steffen, our Chief Investment Officer EMEA and Global Chief Investment Strategist, discusses recent inflation prints, elaborates on European assets after elections and comments on the Q2 earnings season.
Inflation data from the US came in slightly lower than expected which caused quite a bit of rotation. "Everybody's darlings - the megacaps and growth stocks - underperformed significantly while small-cap stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, outperformed," says Dirk.
Commenting on elections in Europe, Dirk says: "While politics usually impact capital markets just for a short period of time, this time, these effects could last a bit longer." But there's good news: "Fundamentally speaking, European stock markets look quite attractive as we have a turning economy which provides better growth" adding that "this comes at a price that is at a record low versus U.S. equities."
Finally, earnings season just kicked off and although the extended technology industry is still doing very well, growth rates (albeit strong) are coming down. Dirk sees "other sectors coming back and we're getting to a market which is more balanced, leading to an overall healthier market environment."
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, set the stage for the 2nd-quarter earnings season which is about to begin – and reflected on what that could mean for equities. “Earnings expectations are very high, and that needs confirmation,” Christian said. “But in general, we do expect a very solid earnings season.” He also explained why investors might want to look at small- and mid-cap stocks in the coming quarters.
U.S. inflation figures are due in the coming week, and Christian said that it could take some time for prices rises to come down to the Federal Reserve’s target. But he said an interest-rate cut this year remains a possibility.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for Europe, Middle East and Africa, Dr. Dirk Steffen, took a historical view to evaluate this year’s surge, and recent volatility, in megacap technology stocks. “We have to have that discussion”, Dirk said. “But we don’t think that we are already in bubble territory.”
Politics entered the conversation, as investors turn to focus on elections in France and the U.K. and consider the implications. In the week ahead, Dirk noted that markets will also be focused on U.S. jobs data on Friday for a view of the state of the economy, and also for the potential impact on Federal Reserve interest-rate policy – particularly after last week’s softening inflation data.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen puts inflation data and FX under the lens, and discusses recent key moves in JPY, AUD, CNY, EUR, and CHF.
Stefanie says the Swiss Franc (CHF) strengthened as a safe haven ahead of France’s election this weekend, giving the Swiss Central Bank reason for a surprise rate cut.
In the Asia Pacific region, Stefanie says this week’s inflation data could trigger the Bank of Japan to hike rates in July, which could put a lid on depreciation of the Yen which is approaching 159JPY/USD.
Stefanie explains the gradual weakening of China’s Renminbi (RMB), pointing to pressure from Japan’s export orientated Yen, and the stronger US dollar which is backed by rates higher for longer.
In Australia, while the RBA held rates steady in the latest meeting, watch for new inflation data this week which could suggest another hike may be on the way.
Coming up in the US, personal spending, GDP, and PCE data will give a better sense of the US macro backdrop and rates outlook.
Tune in and listen to Stefanie’s key thoughts for the week ahead.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, Deepak Puri, reflects on the outlook for interest rates, and a variety of assets, in light of receding price pressures. "We've started to see this disinflation traction that the Fed has been asking for", he says.
The Private Bank also had its quarterly CIO Day, which yielded some positive updates on forecasts for the economy. "We have upgraded slightly the global growth scenario both for this year and for next", Deepak says.
In the week ahead, Deepak says he will be watching for data on U.S. retail sales for a view of "how consumers are feeling". Central bank policy decisions are also expected in the U.K., Switzerland, and Australia.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for Europe, Middle East and Africa, Dr. Dirk Steffen, considers the outlook for the European economy and European stocks after the ECB's decision to get ahead of the Federal Reserve and begin to bring rates down.
Dirk says that the rate cut doesn't mean the ECB will move quickly. "It will be a small and smooth and cautious cycle", Dirk says. "And that essentially means that here we are dealing with higher-for-longer rates, or relatively elevated rates. And this is in our view actually quite positive for the markets."
In the week to come, the Federal Reserve’s policy decision will be on investors' radar, along with a fresh reading of the inflation picture in the U.S. And markets are still digesting critical elections in India and Mexico.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen, discusses softer U.S. GDP data, EU inflation and central bank signals in the U.S., EU, Japan, India and China.
In the U.S., nonfarm payroll data will be closely watched, and on Thursday the ECB is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. Stefanie says it will be important to closely monitor the communications from the ECB press conference for signals about future policy.
In Asia, India’s election and China and Japan’s currencies are also in focus. Stefanie discusses different modes of central bank currency intervention as both these Asian giants battle weak currencies.
Tune in and listen to Stefanie’s key thoughts for the week ahead.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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In this week's Investment Outlook podcast, Global Chief Investment Officer Christian Nolting shares his quick takes on the earnings season, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, and what recent data tell us about the Eurozone economy.
The focus on price pressures in the Fed minutes mean that "if inflation would start to pick up, the Fed probably would have to hike rates", he said. But Christian still expects the Fed to begin lowering rates in the second half of the year. Looking at the ECB, he anticipates a rate cut in June, and says "everything else would be a massive surprise".
Finally, Christian elaborates on the price jumps of both copper and gold this year. "The current inflationary environment of 2-4% is a nice environment for gold", he says. But even as prices pressures ease, industrial metals like copper could continue to benefit, as "there's more demand for infrastructure, such as data centres".
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Strategist and CIO for EMEA, Dirk Steffen, considers a mixed bag of economic data out of China and what it could mean for the country's equities – which have only recently returned to bull-market territory. Looking to the U.S., Dirk reflects on the latest inflation figures and sees a bright spot "that's actually giving the Fed some flexibility" on coming policy decisions. Corporate earnings however will remain the main driver for stocks, he says, and a solid second quarter in Europe offers potential for further positive momentum in the region.
The U.S. central bank will again be in the spotlight in the week ahead when the Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its recent meeting, though investors will have a wealth of economic data to consider as well.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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In this week's Investment Outlook podcast, Deepak Puri, our Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, summarises the market developments and says: “After a disappointing April, May started on a stronger footing – much of this is due to the Fed meeting on May 1st."
As the first quarter earnings season draws to a close, Deepak also shares his assessment of the performance and outlook, sharing that the season has been "one of the silver linings" of the year so far. Earnings growth came in better than expected, while the Discretionary, Communication Services and Technology sectors remain the biggest drivers.
After a weaker week of economic releases, this week will be one to watch closely: with the upcoming release of the Consumer Price Index and retail sales reflecting consumer strength, we will see some data points that have the potential to steer the next Fed interest rates decision.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen, discusses the message from Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell for markets.
Stefanie also discusses key developments in Asia including intervention for the Japanese Yen, and drivers of Japanese equities.
Shedding light on Greater China developments, Stefanie points to the steps from China’s CSRC that aims to encourage more mainland IPOs to list in Hong Kong, which is contributing to the Hang Seng reaching new highs.
To coincide with the Private Bank hosting its first Emerging Market Family Office Forum in Singapore, Stefanie also highlights our latest CIO special report examining the country's medium-term outlook and its family office ecosystem.
For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com
In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.
The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121
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