Episodes
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In this episode, Stephen Miran joins the show to discuss Trump’s potential economic policies, the current economic imbalances in global trade, and the economics of tariffs. We also delve into how currency moves can offset tariffs, a potential Mar-a-Lago Accord to weaken the dollar, and much more. Enjoy!
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Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:27) Stephen's Background
(02:34) Context Behind The Paper
(04:51) Economic Imbalances In Global Trade
(09:15) Consequences Of Having The Reserve Currency
(11:26) Consequences Of US Share Of Global GDP Declining
(14:21) Financial Extraterritoriality & Tariffs
(17:28) Economics Of Tariffs
(25:37) Currency Offsetting
(32:25) Ads
(33:58) Trump's Economic Policies
(45:46) Varied Application Of Tariffs
(49:18) Dollar Devaluation
(55:35) The Role Of The Fed & Treasury
(01:01:46) The Big Picture
(01:03:43) Trump's Impact On Markets
(01:06:43) Closing Remarks
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, George Robertson joins the show to discuss why he thinks there is no monetary policy, the changing reaction function of the Fed, and how fiscal is driving nominal GDP. We also delve into the implications of an absent Fed, the real risk-free rate, and much more. Enjoy!
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Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:11) The Fed Doesn't Exist
(06:58) Neo Wicksell Policy Shift
(14:14) Forward Guidance
(15:54) Summarizing George's Position
(17:50) Normalizing Fed Funds
(21:03) There Is No Monetary Policy
(33:28) Ads
(35:00) There Is No Monetary Policy (Continued)
(37:18) What Is Driving The Economy?
(45:09) Implications Of An Absent Fed
(49:51) What Stage Are We In?
(53:01) The Real Risk-Free Rate
(01:01:23) Economic Outlook
(01:06:10) Learn More About George's Work
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Episodes manquant?
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This week we discuss the impact of the election, the Fed’s interest rate decision, and the post-election trading themes. We also delve into shorting gold, Bitcoin’s all-time high, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GXSr4CfY6aBPYd0z5UqZCIco0MBmMaVb/view?usp=sharing
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Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken
—
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:27 Election Outcome
04:43 The Shift In Media & Polling
09:09 Unity Or More Fracturing?
15:53 Market Impact Of Election
23:04 Ads
24:18 Market Impact Of Election (Continued)
25:35 Offsides Hedging
30:40 Powell & The Fed
36:37 December FOMC Meeting
40:47 2025 Themes To Watch
44:39 Short Gold?
46:46 Crypto & Bitcoin All-Time Highs
52:19 New Market Regime
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Bob Elliot joins the show to discuss the Fed’s latest interest rate decision, the ongoing "over easy" monetary policy, and the election’s impact on the Fed and markets. We also delve into the labor market, fiscal deficits, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited
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__
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.
Buy now on Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:31) FOMC Takeaways
(02:48) Is Policy Restrictive?
(07:20) Are Cuts Fairly Priced?
(09:54) Cuts Are Coming No Matter What
(12:39) Over Easy Monetary Policy
(15:40) Quantitative Tightening
(18:24) What The Fed SHOULD Do
(22:20) Ledger Ad
(23:05) The Labor Market
(26:33) Election Impact On The Fed
(31:40) Can The Fed Tame Inflation?
(35:22) Fiscal Deficits
(42:51) Asset Allocation
(44:42) Credit Spreads
(46:39) Foreign Markets & Monetary Policy
(49:58) F*ck Valuations
(52:11) Follow Bob's Work
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Cem Karsan joins the show to discuss the election’s impact on markets, the new era of populism, and the post-election volatility smash. We also delve into Trump’s impact on the Federal Reserve, the annual re-leveraging effect in markets, and much more. Enjoy!
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__
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.
Buy now on Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(10:11) Pollster Miscalculations
(12:03) Societal Impact Of Election
(19:49) Secular Vs Cyclical Impact
(27:52) Ledger Ad
(28:37) How Will The Fed React?
(33:03) Money Printing & The Dollar
(35:38) Volatility & Market Structure
(43:39) The Re-leveraging Effect
(52:06) Market Outlook
(56:32) Learn More About Cem's Work
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
This week we discuss the latest NFP report, the Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement, and whether the Trump trade is unwinding. We also delve into the moves in yields, MicroStrategy, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Z6tgjtMhnVnGc9PLqwxAMd3TB2Gmx0Qu/view?usp=sharing
—
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.
Buy now on Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:47) NFP Report Takeaways
(14:50) Quant Corner
(24:31) Ledger Ad
(25:16) Is The Trump Trade Unwinding?
(37:31) QRA
(48:16) Microstrategy: The Big Long
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Jurrien Timmer joins the show to discuss where we are in the current bull market, the push & pull between earnings and valuations, and the various influences on interest rates. We also delve into when the US debt level becomes a real problem, monetary hedges, and much more. Enjoy!
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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
__
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.
Buy now on Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:14) Where Are We in the Bull Market?
(04:22) Is this Bull Market Unique?
(07:07) Economic Resilience to Short Rates
(09:12) Quantitative Tightening & Liquidity
(12:39) Election Impact on Markets
(15:54) Unpacking the Move in Yields
(22:20) Outlook for Risk Assets
(26:39) Earnings vs Valuation
(34:52) Ledger Ad
(35:37) Did We Achieve A Soft Landing?
(37:32) Inflation Reacceleration Risk
(42:02) Gold, Bitcoin & Monetary Hedges
(45:40) Path To Negative Real Rates
(49:07) When Does The US Level Debt Actually Matter?
(56:42) Learn More About Jurrien
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
This week we discuss the short bond trade, volatility and excessive hedging, and the election probabilities. We also delve into MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy, unrealized bond loss FUD, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S9PUsLK1G_mqZxzYWrQ1tbEsrgTlecF7/view?usp=drive_link
—
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.
Buy now on Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:33) Path of Interest Rates
(08:01) Is the Short Long Bond Trade Overdone?
(10:46) Overdone Currency Moves
(12:53) Implied Volatility vs Realized Volatility
(16:48) The MOVE Index & Election Hedging
(20:29) Election Probability Distribution
(27:17) Ledger Ad
(28:02) Yellen & Real Interest Rates
(31:10) Inflation Resurgence
(33:18) Global Coordination
(36:01) Macro Trading vs Ideas & the Bond Trade
(39:04) The Reality of a Trump Presidency
(47:04) Bitcoin & MicroStrategy
(52:19) Tesla & The Convert Market
(55:56) Unrealized Bond Losses FUD
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Eric Basmajian joins the show to break down the business cycle, how the cyclical economy impacts the broader economy, and the housing sector’s role in the business cycle. We also delve into the strong GDP numbers, how to measure the labor market and interpret revisions, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Eric Basmajian: https://x.com/epbresearch?lang=en
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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:34) Breaking Down the Business Cycle
(09:24) Is this Cycle Different?
(12:24) Durable Goods Manufacturing & Motor Vehicles
(18:20) The Cyclical Economy
(21:52) The Housing Sector
(26:17) Reconciling Strong GDP with Cyclical Slowing
(30:44) Measuring the Labor Market
(34:41) Digging Into Jobless Claims
(39:35) Impact of Gig Economy on Jobless Claims
(42:02) Non-Farm Payrolls & Revisions
(47:12) The Unemployment Rate
(50:33) The Neutral Rate & Yield Curve
(57:46) Will Fed Cuts Reignite Inflation?
(01:01:32) Learn More About Eric's Work
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
This week we discuss election trades and Trump’s impact on markets, the number of Fed rate cuts currently priced in, and the ongoing bull market in gold. We also delve into the outlook for Bitcoin, how to measure a hard or soft landing, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
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—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_VTM8KHaUHEG4hawqaDJNMF8TddDRM-t/view?usp=drive_link
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:42) Economy is Doing Well
(05:09) Earnings vs Economic Data
(08:29) Actionable Market Ideas
(11:38) Election & Trump Trades
(18:46) Small Caps & Gold
(21:34) Bitcoin & Microstrategy
(24:45) Contrarian Gold Take
(27:52) Trump Trade Hedges
(29:19) Fed Rate Cutting Path
(33:07) Economic Growth Under Trump
(38:12) Volatility & Election Hedging
(41:50) Measuring Hard & Soft Landings
(45:52) Economy Under Biden/Harris
(49:45) AI & The Future Economy
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Tony Greer joins the show to discuss his perspective on equities, the subsectors he’s trading, and his outlook on commodities. We also delve into the Trump trades, the metals market, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Tony Greer: https://x.com/TgMacro
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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:40) Perspective on Equities, Rates, & Commodities
(06:38) Win-Win for Equities
(09:59) Election & Trump Trades
(13:48) A Trader's Market
(17:07) Fed & Macro
(20:09) Bond Yields & Volatility
(22:56) Market Sentiment Push & Pull
(25:09) Oil & Geopolitics
(30:31) Gold Market
(35:29) Precious & Base Metals
(37:57) FX Market
(39:04) Bitcoin & Crypto
(41:28) What Would Make Tony Bearish?
(43:03) Tony's Work
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
This week we sat down at Permissionless to discuss the latest CPI and labor market data, the likely noise in the upcoming labor data, and the impact of coordinated central banking. We also delve into the election, its potential impact on crypto, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_
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Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:26) Inflation & Labor Market Data
(06:03) Inflation Mechanics
(10:13) Labor Market Noise
(14:13) Coordinated Central Banking
(19:26) Bifurcated Economy
(23:45) Is Macro Bullish or Bearish?
(30:11) Crypto & the Election
(36:18) Bitcoin Outlook & Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Jonah and Avi join Felix to discuss the current macro regime, Bitcoin and the crypto market, and the impact of forward guidance. They also delve into the ongoing uncertainty throughout markets, the Fed risking its credibility, and the economic bifurcation playing into crypto.
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Follow Jonah: https://x.com/jvb_xyz
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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:20) Oil Market & Geopolitics
(05:39) Macro's Role In Crypto Markets
(08:41) Fundamental View of Bitcoin & Crypto
(14:00) Bitcoin & Interest Rates
(21:18) The Forward Guidance Regime
(25:00) Economic Growth vs Stimulus
(27:57) Regulatory Uncertainty Slowing Crypto
(30:49) Economic Uncertainty
(33:57) Unaffordability & Wealth Disparity
(36:37) The Fed's Credibility
(40:19) Economic Bifurcation
(45:10) History of Asset Bubbles
(46:48) Generational Wealth
(51:02) Price Predictions
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
This week we discuss the latest bullish jobs report, the impact of globally-coordinated easing, and the Middle East's impact on markets. We also delve into the recent SOFR explosion, election pricing in markets, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S24tXpteiZg1jilfU8aXk0L_NtXFLXVg/view?usp=drive_link
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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: JAUVIN30 for a 30% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:34) Non-Farm Payrolls
(10:59) Fixed Income & High Yield
(12:43) Global Coordinated Easing Cycle
(16:20) US Dollar & US Exceptionalism
(18:52) Global Easing Driving Growth & Liquidity
(22:08) The Big Picture
(26:32) Permissionless Ad
(27:11) Oil, Gold, & the Middle East
(31:37) Global Collateral Shift
(33:19) Middle East Tail Risk
(36:23) SOFR Explosion & QT
(42:09) Simplifying Macro Trading
(45:25) Economic Politics
(48:28) Crypto Markets
(50:31) Election Pricing in Markets
(55:56) Permissionless Next Week
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Harley Bassman joins the show to discuss what the bond market is pricing, the Fed’s master plan, and if we can see a second wave of inflation. We also delve into the MBS market, the impact of immigration on the labor market, credit spreads, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Harley Bassman: https://x.com/ConvexityMaven
Check out Harley’s website: https://www.convexitymaven.com
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Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: JAUVIN30 for a 30% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:54 Implied Forward Rates
03:46 Bond Market Pricing A Recession
07:08 Yield Curve Control & Forward Guidance
11:22 Fair Value of Long Yields
13:54 Duration, Credit, & Convexity
18:11 MBS Spread vs IG Spread
23:21 The Real Risk-Free Rate
26:11 The Fed's Master Plan
29:43 Permissionless Ad
30:22 Can We See a Second Wave of Inflation?
35:19 Labor Market & Immigration
38:10 Are Credit Spreads Fairly Priced?
40:35 Small Caps & Floating-Rate Debt
42:03 Market Opportunities
44:33 Equities & Rates
47:59 Learn More About Harley's Work
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets -
This week we discuss China’s economic stimulus, the resilience of the labor market, and the GDP/GDI revisions. We also delve into global liquidity & equity multiples, things to actually worry about in the future, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_
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Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
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—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/13soXH2F5Zv1f3SvJO6Oj5D7d1gtdBFEJ/view?usp=drive_link
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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:14) China & Economic Stimulus
(08:11) The World is Changing
(12:26) Oil Market
(15:45) Unpacking the Labor Market
(23:27) Permissionless Ad
(24:04) Interview Continues
(25:15) Central Bank Politics
(27:16) GDP & GDI
(32:26) Global Liquidity & Equity Multiples
(38:26) Things to be Worried About
(45:40) Main Takeaways
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Prometheus Research joins the show to discuss his macro framework, what the subcomponents of GDP tell us about the economy, and where we are in the business cycle. We also take a deep dive into the manufacturing sector, the components of liquidity, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Prometheus Research: https://x.com/prometheusmacro
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
__
Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:17) The Prometheus Macro Framework
(04:56) GDP & Economic Growth
(14:11) Interest & Payment Expense
(16:17) Exports
(17:33) Putting the GDP Components Together
(19:24) Corporate Profits & Savings Rates
(23:31) Manufacturing Sector
(30:31) The Business Cycle
(35:03) The Labor Market & Recession Indicators
(38:21) Inflation
(40:25) Liquidity Breakdown
(53:44) Applying A Systematic Portfolio Strategy
(56:42) Prometheus Research
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets -
This week we discuss the Fed decision & economic projections, the bullish market signals, and the reasoning behind recession calls. We also delve into the trajectory of the economy and cutting cycle, private credit markets, the banana zone, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Jack: https://x.com/JackFarley96
Follow Monetary Matters: https://www.youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/195AL7oEaAkimijE0XSnagP8vwzeDat4N/view?usp=drive_link
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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:14) FOMC Victory Lap
(03:38) Quinn's Framework
(06:11) Bullish Rate Cut?
(09:30) Summary of Economic Projections
(14:32) Bullish Market Signals
(18:05) The World Trade
(21:09) Trajectory of the Cutting Cycle
(24:30) Market Sentiment & Credit Risk
(27:50) Private Credit
(29:55) Sovereign Debt Crowding Out Private Debt
(31:43) Permissionless Ad
(32:23) Fiscal Super Cycle
(34:09) Energy, Commodities, & AI
(37:13) Economic Expectations
(39:50) Reconciling Recession Calls
(44:35) The Market Gives Something for Everyone
(50:38) Oil Market & Liquidity
(53:32) The Banana Zone
(58:58) Monetary Matters
(01:01:09) Balancing Market Views
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
This week we discuss the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, the path to the neutral rate, and why the Fed should front-load its rate cuts. Darius and Felix also delve into why the recessionistas are wrong about the labor market, the fiscal impulse, the impact of the BOJ and China on global macro, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Darius Dale: https://x.com/DariusDale42
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:41) Overview of the Economy
(02:42) Recession vs Normalization
(05:48) 25 vs 50 Bps Rate Cut
(10:17) Are We Price For Recession?
(12:50) Inflation & Front-Loading Rate Cuts
(19:43) The Recessionistas Are Wrong
(25:49) The Fiscal Impulse
(28:55) Trend of US Growth
(31:02) Permissionless Ad
(31:42) The Bank of Japan & Interest Rate Differentials
(40:31) Chinese Economy
(44:32) Asset Allocation
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets -
Important news: this will be Jack’s last episode as the host of Forward Guidance. He is transitioning to host a new podcast called Monetary Matters: https://www.youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters
Felix Jauvin, macro trader and current host of “On The Margin,” will be the new host of Forward Guidance going forward: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Richard Koo, senior adviser at CSIS, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, and pioneer of the “balance sheet recession” phenomenon, explains why he thinks China’s balance sheet recession has already begun.
Richard Koo’s latest book, “Pursued Economy: Understanding and Overcoming the Challenging New Realities for Advanced Economies”: https://www.amazon.com/Pursued-Economy-Understanding-Overcoming-Challenging/dp/1119984270
Richard Koo’s classic book, “The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan's Great Recession”: https://www.amazon.com/Holy-Grail-Macroeconomics-Lessons-Recession/dp/0470824948
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Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:08) What Is A Balance Sheet Recession?
(08:56) Balance Sheet Recession In Europe & U.S. After The Great Financial Crisis of 2008
(15:46) China's Balance Sheet Recession
(25:43) Savings And Bank Credit In China
(33:26) Permissionless Ad
(34:25) China's Trade Surplus
(38:20) China Likely Can't Export Its Way Out Of Its Balance Sheet Recession Because The Rest of the World Won't Let It
(45:33) The Currency Adjustment Mechanism To Correct Trade Imbalances Has Been Severely Impaired, Argues Koo
(01:01:58) Is The U.S. in a Balance Sheet Expansion?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. - Montre plus
