Episodes
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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:34) Jonah's Background At Lehman, Goldman, Vitol, and Cumberland
(04:18) Jonah on Crypto: "I'm So Bullish I Can't See Straight"
(06:18) Why Jonah Thinks Bitcoin Will Stay In A Range ("Proper Chop") Before Shooting Higher
(09:11) Jonah: Bitcoin Is Better At Conducting Large Scale Commodity Transactions Than Most Non-Reserve Fiat Currencies
(22:01) VanEck Ad
(28:20) Has Saudi Arabia Moved Off The Petrodollar?
(30:09) Is Mt. Gox Unlock of Bitcoin A Big Deal?
(34:25) Jonah on The Real Reason Crypto Is Going Down: "Most Altcoins Are Worthless": You "Shitcoin of Choice" Is Probably Dead
(45:19) The Rise of Stablecoins
(48:26) The "AI" Crypto Coins
(50:40) Jonah on Oil: There's A Lot Of Spare Capacity, Hard To See A Big Move Higher
(58:09) The Best Trade of 2024 In Oil Has Been Selling Options
(01:06:34) Why Jonah Is Bullish Distillates
(01:10:15) Jonah on Oil Refineries
(01:13:34) Natural Gas
(01:20:25) Uranium and Gold
(01:22:58) Fiat Debasement and Bitcoin
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets -
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
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This week, David Goone CEO of tZERO joins the show for a discussion on the next big trend he is seeing within capital markets. We discuss David's time at the ICE exchange, acquisition as a growth strategy, the development of online trading, how to unlock liquidity for alternative assets & more. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(08:20) The Shift From LIBOR To SOFR
(16:05) VanEck Ad
(16:45) Acquisition As A Growth Strategy
(22:16) The Growth Of Electronic Trading
(24:57) What Is tZERO?
(36:43) What Is A Security?
(38:47) Providing Liquidity For Venture Capital & Private Equity
(48:53) Aspen Hotel Resort Offering
(56:20) Building A Brand & Reputation As An Alternative Exchange
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Episodes manquant?
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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Midas’ website: https://midas.app/
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Fabrice Grinda’s website: https://fabricegrinda.com/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:54) How Fabrice Grinda Thinks About Macro
(05:19) Fabrice's Early Journey In VC During The Venture Capital Bust of 2000
(07:06) The VC Boom of 2020 & 2021
(11:24) Why Raising Too Much Money At Too High A Valuation Can Be A Big Problem (For Real)
(16:38) Layoffs In Tech While The Overall U.S. Job Market Has Been Strong In 2023 & 2024: How To Square This?
(19:18) The Biggest Risk Now Is Not Macroeconomic In Nature: It Is Geopolitical
(21:19) VanEck Ad
(21:59) Palantir and Anduril
(26:48) Why An Increasing Percentage of Grinda's Investments Are Now In The U.S.
(30:42) VC Tourists Who Got Smoked In 2022
(33:15) Have VC Valuations Bottomed? A Tale of Two Cities (AI & Non-AI)
(36:02) Fabrice's Journey Into Crypto
(39:29) Midas: Yield-Bearing Stablecoin That Can Actually Do Stuff On-Chain
(44:13) The Crypto Basis Trade & mBasis
(47:50) Tether and Circle
(49:41) Midas' Decision To Be Regulatory Compliant In Europe (And Not The U.S.)
(51:44) The U.S. Regulatory Crackdown on Crypto Has Been Hardcore
(53:17) Bankruptcy Remoteness In Crypto Is Rare
(57:27) Are Onchain Treasury Bills Still Zero Coupon?
(58:32) Fabrice's Longer-Term Vision For Midas
(59:49) Fabrice's Views On Payment Rails Such as MasterCard, Visa, etc.
(01:04:27) FedNow
(01:07:29) How Did The Fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Impact The Venture Capital (VC) Ecosystem?
(01:14:35) Additional Thoughts On Macro and Recession Risk
(01:17:45) State of AI VC Market In 2024
(01:24:50) Self-Driving Tech
(01:27:12) Who Will Be The Biggest Long-Term Winners From AI?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Follow Citrini on Twitter https://x.com/Citrini7
Follow Citrini on Substack https://www.citriniresearch.com/
Citrini 1-Year Anniversary Piece: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/citrindex-one-year-anniversary
Citrini, “Election 2024: Investment Implications & Preparations”: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/election-2024-investment-implications
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:20) How Citrini Is Thinking About Markets Right Now
(07:21) Just How Narrow Is The AI Bull Market?
(20:04) VanEck Ad
(20:44) Election 2024: Investment Implications & Preparations
(26:18) Fannie Mae and Glass Producers
(28:34) Onshoring vs. Nearshoring Stocks
(29:48) Trump Election Would Cause Epic 2s10s Steepeners
(33:41) Deficits Under Biden, Deficits Under Trump
(37:07) Trump's Aggressive Tax Policy (TCJA Tax Cuts To Expire In 2025)
(40:13) China
(46:32) Trump on Crypto
(48:15) Would The S&P 500 Perform Better Under Biden or Trump, and Why?
(54:12) Tarriff Basket
(56:05) Tarriffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs)
(58:31) Citrini on Tesla as an AI Company And As A Robotaxi Company
(01:01:40) The Hottest New Coding Language Is English
(01:06:21) Why Software and Saas Stocks Have Underperformed
(01:09:32) Margin Of Safety Has Been Extraordinarily Diminished
(01:12:43) What Are The Odds That The Top Is In For AI Stocks?
(01:19:03) China's AI Stocks
(01:34:54) Hedging For A Recession Is Pretty Straightforward Right Now
(01:37:18) Hedging Via The VIX
(01:42:34) Citrini: "I Think I'm Underweight Nvidia Relative to the S&P 500"
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Follow Eric Pachman on Twitter https://x.com/EricPachman
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Bancreek’s CPI tool: https://www.bancreek.com/p/checking-the-tape-may-2024-cpiu
Bancreek’s PCE tool: https://www.bancreek.com/p/april-2024-pce-update
Bancreek’s labor market tree map: https://www.bancreek.com/p/us-employment-data-treemap
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:57) The U.S. Labor Market
(03:57) Tree Map Of Where New U.S. Jobs Are Being Created (It's A LOT In Healthcare and Government Sector)
(19:50) VanEck Ad
(23:17) The Growth In U.S. Government Jobs
(28:39) U.S. Healthcare Industry Is Incentivized For High Prices And High Job Growth Is A Consequence
(45:00) Homebuilding, Oil & Gas, and Retail
(52:11) Inflation Masterclass: Differences Between CPI & PCE
(01:11:35) Healthcare in PCE & CPI
(01:28:46) With Housing Inflation Where It Is, It Is Nearly Statistically Impossible For Inflation To Be At Or Below The Fed's Target of 2%
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:37) The Fed's Quadrilemma
(09:46) The Fed's Views Of The Beveridge Curve and Phillips Curve
(34:06) VanEck Ad
(34:46) The Slow Death Of The Interbank Lending Market (AKA Fed Funds Market)
(38:27) Fed Should Adopt Once More A "Bills-Only" Policy
(43:21) Lehman: A Retrospective
(48:47) Fannie & Freddie's Role In Facilitating The Growth Of Subprime Securitized Products
(50:46) Moral Hazard In The Banking System Before The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008
(01:02:48) Lehman's Biggest Exposure Was Commercial Real Estate (CRE & CMBS), Not Subprime Residential (RMBS)
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
17:39 VanEck Ad
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
William English’s work at the Yale Program on Financial Stability: https://som.yale.edu/faculty-research/faculty-directory/william-b-english
William English’s co-authored new book, “Monetary Policy Responses to Post-Pandemic Inflation”: https://cepr.org/about/news/press-release-new-cepr-ebook-monetary-policy-responses-post-pandemic-inflation
William English’s co-authored Chapter on the Fed’s Balance Sheet: https://www.elgaronline.com/edcollchap/book/9781800375321/book-part-9781800375321-7.xml
William English’s 2012 paper on the rationale and effects of QE: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/the-federal-reserve39s-large-scale-asset-purchase-programs-rationale-and-effects.htm
“Interest Rate Risk and Bank Equity Valuations”: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/interest-rate-risks-and-bank-equity-valuations.htm
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:31) Fiscal Policy & Monetary Policy Never Really Were Separated. But It Would Nice If They Were
(03:49) Do High Interest Rates Dissuade Government Borrowing?
(07:09) The Fed Doesn't Like To Discuss Fiscal Policy
(09:53) The Fed's Balance Sheet Expansion of 2020 & 2021
(13:57) The Effects of Quantitative Easing (QE), In Theory And Practice
(18:59) I Don't Remember Us (The Fed) Thinking A Lot About Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP)
(23:41) VanEck Ad
(24:22) The October 2008 Decision To Allow The Fed To Pay Interest On Reserves Assisted the Implementation of Quantitative Easing (QE), Which Began ~1 Month Later
(29:15) The Striking Thing About The Asset Purchases Was The Size
(32:32) Forward Guidance vs. QE: Which Is More Powerful, And Which Has More Knock-on Effects?
(36:27) Forward Guidance Is More Powerful When Initial Market Expectations About Future Policy Rates Are Incorrect
(44:37) Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) Framework Adopted By The Fed In 2020
(52:48) Fast QE & Slow QT = Secular Rise In Size of Fed Balance Sheet
(57:27) Fed's Decision To Slow Pace of QT Was Due To Desire To Avoid a "Snafu" In Money Markets Such As In September 2019
(01:02:36) The Bernanke Doctrine: Should Interest Rate Policy & Balance Sheet Policy Always Be Pointed In The Same Direction?
(01:07:12) If Balance Sheet Policy Is Moving The Opposite Direction Of Interest Rate Policy, Does That Weaken The Signaling Impact Of Balance Sheet Policy?
(01:11:50) Lowest Comfortable Level of Reserves (LCLoR)
(01:19:34) Impact Of Interest Rate Movements On Bank Equity Valuations
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:33) China Exporting Deflationary Pressure
(05:20) "Froth" In Commodities
(11:27) The Future Of Fiscal Policy In The U.S.
(19:41) VanEck Ad
(20:21) How Forward Looking Will Central Bankers Be?
(34:35) Chinese National Accounts And Flows
(41:21) War And Finance
(45:30) Bank of Japan
(54:57) Bond Market & Fixed-Income Trades
(01:06:16) Currency Trades on The Yen & Yuan
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
In this episode, Keone from Monad and Zon from Initia to discuss the spectrum between modular and integrated blockchain designs. They explore the tradeoffs in decentralization, performance and scalability between the two approaches. They explore AppChains, rollups, composability challenges in modular systems, EVM compatibility, and when to scale blockchains horizontally vs vertically. To close out Keone and Zon also share valuable insights on building Web3 communities organically. Thanks for tuning in!
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Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@expansionpod
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
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(00:00) Introduction
(03:24) Modular vs Integrated
(11:47) Who are Appchains for?
(28:58) Composability in Modular World
(36:15) Monad's Endgame
(39:47) Importance of Decentralization
(48:05) Building Web3 Community
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Disclaimer:
Expansion was kickstarted by a grant from the Celestia Foundation.
Nothing said on Expansion is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Rex, Jon, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. -
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:53) Japan
(11:48) Wages Are Rising In Japan
(16:45) The Effective End Of Yield Curve Control (YCC) In Japan
(22:57) When Will The Bank of Japan Raise Interest Rates?
(25:03) VanEck Ad
(26:43) How High Will The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Go?
(33:12) Jens' View On The Japanese Yen
(56:00) Jens' Updated Views On U.S. Dollar And U.S. Rates
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
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This week Jack Farley joins us to discuss the biggest stories of the week. With economic data showing early signs of slowing, we deep dive into why inflation is still a problem for most citizens & although we are not in a recession, we are very much so in a "vibecession". Enjoy!
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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
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Jason Shapiro website https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:41) Jason Is "Neutral" On Stocks
(03:14) If Stocks Don't Rally On A Lower-Than-Expected PCE Number, There's Trouble
(06:30) Copper Has Become "The Favorite Trade On The Planet"
(13:00) Central Banks Have Painted Themselves Into A Corner
(20:50) "I Would Not Be Super Aggressive Here"
(22:37) VanEck Ad
(23:17) Jack's Push-Back Against "The Endgame" Take
(26:31) Trading Off A Macro View Is Dangerous As Hell
(27:37) Nvidia: The Mag One
(36:49) Bond Market Positioning
(41:10) U.S. Government Is Running A Pro-Cyclical Fiscal Deficit
(43:50) Jason Doesn't Trade On His Macro View Of Money-Printing Endgame, In The Same Way That A Profitable Sportsbetter From New York Doesn't Bet On The Knicks
(44:56) Barron's Roundtable Portfolio Is Up 2% This Year (Compared to 12% S&P 500)
(51:31) Jason's View Of Market Breadth
(56:49) Jason Is "Not A Big Believer In Chinese Stocks"
(01:06:15) Babyish Sentiment (People Freaking Out About Stock Market Being 5% Off Its Highs) Is Probably A Bullish Sign Argues Jason
(01:09:06) On A Short-Term Basis Jason Prefers Bonds To Stocks. What Would Have To Happen For That To Change?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Jack Ryan’s book: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Bringing-Adam-Smith-into-the-American-Home/Jack-Ryan/9798888451946
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:01) The Residential Agency Brokerage Business Is “The Largest Cartel In The U.S.” Argues Jack Ryan
(18:01) Is This Legal?
(23:24) Role of Multiple Listing Services (MLSs)
(28:32) Zillow’s Business Model
(35:24) VanEck Ad
(36:04) Rex’s Plans To Go Public Disintegrated After Material Slowdown In Business Upon Zillow Change
(39:39) Long And Short Ideas If Brokerage Fees Were To Go Down
(44:26) If Brokerage Is Such A Good Business, Where Are All The Excess Profits?
(48:40) How Zillow’s Business Decision May Have Impacted Rex Homes
(54:11) Rex’s Lawsuit Against Zillow, NAR, and Trulia
(01:05:55) National Association of Realtors (NAR) Has A Grip On Washington DC
(01:11:59) Closing Thoughts On Strength Of U.S. Housing Market
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Kyla Scanlon’s Book, “In This Economy?” https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/737854/in-this-economy-by-kyla-scanlon/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:19) In This Economy?
(07:44) How Are The Vibes Right Now
(11:43) Does The U.S. Have A Housing Crisis?
(14:21) VanEck Ad
(15:02) Does The U.S. Have A Housing Crisis? (continued)
(19:45) Declinism & Doomerism
(27:23) Wealth & Income Inequality In The U.S.
(32:46) Political Polarization
(34:16) The Origin Of Money
(36:10) MMT & Debt
(40:48) Elder Care & Child Care Costs
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
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Views expressed by James Fishback in this interview are solely his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Jack Farley, Forward Guidance, Blockworks, or any other associated parties.
Although the title “head of macro” plays a central role in this ongoing legal dispute, James Fishback notes in this interview that his complaint also concerns his role in Greenlight’s macro returns during his employment. Recorded the evening of May 22, 2024.
James Fishback vs. Greenlight Capital: https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rGPZD1CfIoZE/v0
Greenlight Capital vs. James Fishback:
https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/r61keEZ5nJ1k/v0
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(06:08) Job Offer And Title
(12:31) When Did James First Consider Himself To Be The Head of Macro?
(20:21) Greenlight's Two Loans To Fishback (Totaling $337,346.12 Before Accrued Interest, Totaling $345,698.65 After Accrued Interest)
(23:48) Van Eck Ad
(24:28) How To Define "Running Macro Investing"
(31:04) Written Evidence Of Greenlight Employees Referring To James As The "Head Of Macro"
(50:15) James Considers David Einhorn's "Tweet Heard Round The World" an "Insult" And "A Lie"
(56:52) Fishback: "I've Always Had The Itch To Be Entrepreneurial"
(58:04) James' Resignation From Greenlight In Early August 2023
(01:02:23) Fishback: A Billionaire Demanding That A Public University Take Down Content From A Student Organization Is A "Flagrant Violation Of The First Amendment"
(01:03:23) Political Differences Between James Fishback And David Einhorn
(01:10:17) James Fishback's Market Views: The Fed's "Lemonhead Problem"
(01:14:07) Fishback: Fixed-Rate Liabilities And Floating-Rate Assets Means Fed's Interest Rate Hikes Have Actually Been Net Stimulative
(01:19:17) Higher For Longer
(01:27:05) Why James Thinks Donald Trump Will Win The 2024 Presidential Election
(01:35:08) James' Bullish View On USD / JPY (Taking Advantage of Forward Curve)
(01:42:12) Fishback's View Of U.S. Stock Market, AI, And Microsoft
(01:46:37) Options & Path Dependency
(01:48:29) View On Long-Term Bonds (Duration)
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:37) Mel’s Background
(04:13) The More Debt Is Created, The More Investors Want It (Story of Past 50 Years)
(06:59) Mel On Gold And Stock Market
(11:31) Inflating The Debt Away: The 1940s Playbook
(14:30) The Pre-Bretton Woods “Sterling Standard”
(17:36) Offshore Dollars (“Eurodollars”)
(24:23) The Debt Spiral: Comparison to 1920s
(27:56) VanEck Ad
(28:38) Why Now?
(37:01) Great Depression
(43:24) Social Security = Ticking Time Bomb, Mel Argues
(48:30) Isn’t There A Self-Regulating Cycle Where Rising Bond Yields Slow Down The Economy (Which In Turn Creates Demand For Duration & Cash)?
(59:14) Timing: 2027
(01:04:52) Social Security Funding
(01:17:01) Gold and Inflation
(01:28:22) Mel’s Book, QUOZ
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:30) Nick Favors Stocks Over Bonds Until He Sees Data That Say Otherwise
(05:25) Potential For An Bond Auction Failure
(06:44) U.S Government Borrowing: Treasury Bills vs. Treasury Coupons
(21:49) Conditions At Recent Treasury Market Auctions
(25:13) Short Bonds, But Not Wildly Bearish
(26:13) VanEck Ad
(27:14) Is Yield Curve Steepener Trade Positive Carry or Negative Carry?
(28:43) Inflation Volatility Is Bad For Term Premia
(33:13) Bull Steepener vs. Bear Steepener: How Will The Yield Curve Uninvert?
(39:10) Bull Steepeners Usually Occur Faster Than Bear Steepeners (Nick Thinks Bull Steepener Could Be More Likely)
(54:24) Volatility In The Bond Market
(01:02:21) Relative to Bonds, Nick Is Bullish On Stocks
(01:07:49) The Labor Market
(01:09:53) GameStop and the Return of Meme Stocks
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
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Timestamps
(00:00) Introduction
(01:07) An Overview Of Currencies
(09:19) The U.S. Dollar As A Hedge
(20:14) The Bond Market Is Not Safe
(25:41) Economic Outlook
(29:27) VanEck Ad
(30:28)
(34:02) Central Banks Management Of Currencies
(36:23) Emerging Market Currencies
(42:12) U.S. Trade Deficit And Fiscal Deficit
(45:08) Looking Back At Dollar Bear Market of 2000-2007
(49:05) China Is Screwed: Dicker on Chinese Yuan (CNY)
(01:00:27) View On Stock Market
(01:02:42) Which Are You More Bearish On, The Euro Or The Yen?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:24) Debt Service Ratio In U.S. Means Higher Interest Rates Haven't Caused Interest Expense To Skyrocket
(02:37) The "Higher Interest Rates Are Stimulative" Argument Has Gone War Too Far
(06:45) Outside Of The U.S., Higher Interest Rates Already HAVE Had A Big Effect
(08:46) Private Debt, Not Public Debt, Is The Cause Of Most Modern Financial Crises
(11:23) Eurozone Countries Can't Print Their Own Currency The Way A Monetary Sovereign Can
(14:04) Is Government Deficit The Surplus Of The Private Sector?
(21:43) VanEck ad
(22:50) Making Money And Being Right Are Often Different Things
(25:13) Is Private Sector Investment "Crowded Out" By Government Borrowing?
(26:51) The Four Factors That Impact Interest Rate Sensitivity Of An Economy
(29:53) U.S. Recession Risk Is Underpriced By Interest Rate Futures Market
(32:28) If Nominal GDP Comes In Below Consensus, Stocks Could Rally (Rather Than Sell-off)
(37:16) Macro Carry Strategies
(42:52) The Case For A Bull Steepener (Short-Term Yields Fall More Than Long-Term Yields)
(44:45) Weighing Probabilities Of Soft Landing vs. Recession vs. No Landing
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. - Montre plus
