Episodes
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Ellen Correia Golay is an advisor in the Markets Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, focusing on the US Treasury market. She also helped lead an interagency working group report and a recent conference on the Treasury market. Ellen joins David on Macro Musings to talk about these and other Treasury-related developments. Ellen and David also discuss her career journey and role at the New York Fed, the current and future challenges in the Treasury Market, necessary areas for reform, and more.
DISCLAIMER: Ellen Correia Golay’s views are her own, and they do not represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Register now for Building a Better Fed Framework: The AIER Monetary Conference.
Ellen’s LinkedIn profile
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
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Related Links:
*Enhancing the Resilience of the U.S. Treasury Market: 2024 Staff Progress Report* by the Inter-Agency Working Group on Treasury Market Surveillance (IAWG)
*The 2024 U.S. Treasury Market Conference* — An event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:03:09) – Ellen’s Career Journey and Role at the New York Fed
(00:17:13) – Breaking Down the Treasury Market
(00:20:38) – Current and Future Challenges in the Treasury Market
(00:29:54) – How Would Central Clearing Impact the Fed and the Treasury Market?
(00:31:47) – Explaining the Treasury Department Buyback Program
(00:36:12) – Commencement of Data Dissemination on Individual Nominal Coupon Treasury Transactions
(00:38:29) – Requiring the Reporting of Non-Centrally Cleared Bilateral Repos
(00:41:26) – The 2024 U.S. Treasury Market Conference
(00:43:50) – Future Areas for Reform in the Treasury Market
(00:46:43) – Outro
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Emil Verner is an associate professor of finance at MIT Sloan and is a research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Emil has written widely on financial stability, banking panics, and credit booms, and he joins David on Macro Musings to talk about these issues. Specifically, David and Emil also discuss the causes and policy implications of bank failures, the shortcomings of the Diamond-Dybvig model of bank runs, how financial crises spur the rise of populism, and much more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Register now for Building a Better Fed Framework: The AIER Monetary Conference.
Emil’s Twitter: @EmilVerner
Emil’s website
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
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Related Links:
*Failing Banks* by Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner
*Banking Crises Without Panics* by Matthew Baron, Emil Verner, and Wei Xiong
*Financial Crisis, Creditor-Debor Conflict, and Populism* by Gyozo Gyongyosi and Emil Verner
*Fragile by Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit* by Charles Calomiris and Stephen Haber
*Going to Extremes: Politics After Financial Crises, 1870-2014* by Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick, and Christoph Trebesch
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:03:45) – Why Do We Care About Banking Panics and Financial Stability?
(00:05:42) – Breaking Down the Causes of Bank Failures and its Policy Implications
(00:13:38) – Exploring the Historical Banking Data
(00:15:59) – *Failing Banks*: Key Findings and Takeaways
(00:24:00) – *Banking Crises Without Panics*
(00:28:05) – Responding to the Diamond-Dybvig Model of Bank Runs
(00:33:29) – Applying the Bank Solvency Story to the Great Financial Crisis
(00:36:16) – The Impact of Credit Booms
(00:40:56) – What Are the Necessary Policy Prescriptions?
(00:43:08) – Why is Diamond-Dybvig So Popular?
(00:47:01) – *Financial Crisis, Creditor-Debtor Conflict, and Populism*
(00:52:55) – How Do We Stem the Tide of Populism in the Future?
(00:54:36) – Outro
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Episodes manquant?
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Loretta Mester was president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland from 2014 through June of 2024, and she is a 39-year veteran of the Federal Reserve System. Loretta is also currently an adjunct professor of finance at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. She joins David on Macro Musings to talk about her time as Fed president and a recent paper she delivered on the Fed’s operating system. David and Loretta also discuss the ongoing battle against inflation, what to expect from the upcoming Fed framework review, and much more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Register now for Building a Better Fed Framework: The AIER Monetary Conference.
Loretta’s Cleveland Fed profile
Loretta’s Wharton profile
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
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Related Links:
*The Fed’s Ample Reserves Monetary Policy Operating Framework: It Isn’t as Simple as it Looks* – Remarks by Loretta Mester for the Panel on The Conduct of Monetary Policy: Evolution from Free Reserves to the Corridor and Floor Systems at the Shadow Open Market Committee 50th Anniversary Conference
*Reserve Demand Elasticity (RDE)* by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:02:18) – Loretta’s Career Path and Tenure at the Cleveland Fed
(00:10:42) – The Ongoing Battle Against Inflation
(00:17:53) – Evaluating FAIT and What to Expect from the 2024-25 Fed Framework Review
(00:26:03) – Corridor vs. Floor: The Evolution of the Fed’s Operating System and its Policy Implications
(00:41:31) – Estimating the Demand for Bank Reserves
(00:45:57) – Addressing Over-reliance on the Fed in the Interbank Market
(00:52:45) – Loretta’s Thoughts on Central Clearing and Increased Use of the Discount Window
(00:55:23) – Outro
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Jon Hartley is a macroeconomist and affiliated scholar at the Mercatus Center, and he is also the host of a Hoover Institution podcast titled, *Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century.* Jon joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the Hoover Institution’s recent monetary policy conference, *A 50-Year Retrospective on the Shadow Open Market Committee and its Role in Monetary Policy* as well as some of his own related work. Specifically, Jon and David also discuss the origins, purpose, and influence of the Shadow Open Market Committee, the tension between the fiscal theory of the price level and Fed policy, the significance of government debt management, and more.
DISCLAIMER: The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Register now for Building a Better Fed Framework: The AIER Monetary Conference.
Jon’s podcast: Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century
Jon’s Twitter: @Jon_Hartley_
Jon’s website
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*A 50-Year Retrospective on the Shadow Open Market Committee and its Role in Monetary Policy* - An event hosted by the Hoover Institution
*The International Public Debt Valuation Puzzle: Testing the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Across Countries and Time* by Jon Hartley, Matyas Farkas, and J.R. Scott
*Does Government Debt Management Matter? High Frequency Identification from U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcements* by Jon Hartley and Lorenzo Rigon
*The U.S. Public Debt Valuation Puzzle* by Hanno Lustig, Zhengyang Jiang, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Mindy Xiaolan
*The Real Effects of Monetary Expansions: Evidence from a Large-scale Historical Experiment* by Nuno Palma
*Chronicle of a Deflation Unforetold* by Francois Velde
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Bumper
(00:00:41) – Intro
(00:04:50) – The Origins, Purpose, and Influence of the Shadow Open Market Committee
(00:13:18) – Why Has Money Fallen Out of Favor?
(00:22:31) – How Well Does the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Hold Up?
(00:34:58) – The Tension Between the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and Fed Policy
(00:40:58) – Does Government Debt Management Matter?
(00:51:10) – The Floor System, Quantitative Easing, and the Keys to Economic Growth
(00:59:41) – Outro
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Tara Sinclair is a professor of economics and international affairs at George Washington University, where she also directs the George Washington Center for Economic Research. From 2022 to 2024, Tara also served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomics in the Office of Economic Policy at the US Department of Treasury. Tara joins David on Macro Musings to talk about her time at Treasury, real-time economic analysis, the Fed framework review, and much more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Tara’s Twitter: @TaraSinc
Tara’s website
Tara’s GWU profile
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
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Related Links:
*Real Time Economics: Tales from the Trenches* - Remarks by Tara Sinclair at the 2024 RTE Conference
*Labor Shortages and Job Mismatch* - Remarks by Tara Sinclair at the 66th NABE Annual Meeting
*The Fed’s Strategic Approach to Monetary Policy Needs a Reboot* by Mickey Levy and Charles Plosser
*The Inflation Surge of the 2020s: The Role of Monetary Policy* by Gauti Eggertsson and Don Kohn
*Monetary Policy Strategies to Foster Price Stability and a Strong Labor Market* by Michael Kiley
*Did the Federal Reserve’s 2020 Policy Framework Limit Its Response to Inflation? Evidence and Implications for the Framework Review* by Christina Romer and David Romer
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:01:25) – Working as a Deputy Assistant Secretary at the Treasury Department
(00:06:31) – Building a Better Economic Database
(00:10:15) – Breaking Down Real-time Economics and Real-time Data
(00:16:06) – *Real Time Economics: Tales from the Trenches*
(00:21:37) – Solving Our Current Data Challenges
(00:24:36) – *Labor Shortages and Job Mismatch*
(00:32:08) – Breaking Down the Upcoming Fed Framework Review
(00:37:56) – Addressing the Concerns and Issues Surrounding the Fed’s Framework
(00:42:50) – Unpacking the Dual Mandate and the Fed’s Broad and Inclusive Goal
(00:53:45) – Could AI Define Maximum Employment in the Future?
(00:56:13) – Outro
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Joseph Gagnon is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a former senior Fed staffer, and a returning guest to the podcast. Joe rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about the unholy trinity behind the COVID inflation surge and what history can teach us about the unusual inflation experience of that period. David and Joe also discuss the inflationary lessons from the Korean War, the Fed’s upcoming framework review, and much more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Joseph’s Twitter: @GagnonMacro
Joseph’s PIIE profile
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
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Related Links:
*What Caused the U.S. Pandemic-Era Inflation?* by Ben Bernanke and Olivier Blanchard
*Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era* by Laurence Ball, Daniel Leigh, and Prachi Mishra
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:02:46) – Predicting the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge
(00:06:39) – Assessing the State of the Bond Market and Inflation Expectations After the Inflation Surge
(00:16:14) – What Caused the U.S. Pandemic-Era Inflation: Breaking Down the Literature
(00:23:45) – *The Trinity of COVID-Era Inflation in G7 Economies*
(00:32:55) – *Why Did Inflation Rise and Fall So Rapidly? Lessons from the Korean War*
(00:42:06) – Inflation, FAIT, and the Upcoming Fed Framework Review
(00:49:18) – Why Should the Fed Consider Nominal GDP Targeting?
(00:53:04) – Responding to the Measurement Issue Surrounding Nominal GDP
(00:57:40) – Outro
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Emilio Ocampo is a professor of finance and economic history at UCEMA. He has written widely on the Argentine economy and has advised President Javier Milei on economic policy. Emilio joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the current state of the Argentine economy, the present and ongoing reforms of President Milei, and the prospects for dollarization in Argentina.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Emilio’s Twitter: @ocampo_emilio
Emilio’s Substack
Emilio’s UCEMA profile
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
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Related Links:
*Commitment Devices with Time Inconsistency Disease and Institutional Anomie: The Case of Argentina* by Emilio Ocampo
*Dollarization: A Solution for Argentina* by Emilio Ocampo and Nicolas Cachanosky
*Argentina Scrapped Its Rent Controls. Now the Market is Thriving* by Ryan Dube
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:03:58) – Assessing Argentina’s Progress on Lowering Inflation
(00:11:12) – Exploring the Causes of Argentina’s Poor Economic Performance
(00:15:20) – *Commitment Devices with Time Inconsistency Disease and Institutional Anomie*
(00:26:29) – Javier Milei’s Plan to Revive Argentina
(00:31:39) – The Next Steps for Argentine Economic Reform
(00:39:56) – Defining Dollarization and Exploring its Historical Cases
(00:49:33) – Transitioning to Dollarization in Argentina
(00:55:12) – Dollarization Concerns and the Prospects for Dollarization Moving Forward
(00:58:48) – Outro
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Jonathon Hazell is an assistant professor of economics at the London School of Economics and is a returning guest to the podcast. He rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about the costs of inflation, the Phillips curve Debate, and the lessons learned from the post-pandemic inflation surge.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Jonathon’s Twitter: @JADHazell
Jonathon’s website
Jonathon’s LSE profile
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
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Related Links:
*Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs* by Jonathon Hazell, Joao Guerreiro, Chen Lian, and Christina Patterson
*Do Deficits Cause Inflation? A High Frequency Narrative Approach* by Jonathon Hazell and Stephan Hobler
*Jonathon Hazell on Phillips Curves, Wage Rigidity, and How to Measure R-Star* by Macro Musings
*The Dominant Role of Expectations and Broad-Based Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation* by Paul Beaudry, Chenyu Hou, and Franck Portier
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:05:27) – Breaking Down the Costs of Inflation
(00:08:45) – *Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs*
(00:21:12) – Outlining the Policy Implications
(00:27:24) – The Recent Phillips Curve Conversation: What Have We Learned?
(00:34:43) – *Do Deficits Cause Inflation? A High Frequency Narrative Approach*
(00:46:39) – Navigating the Alternative Macroeconomics Perspectives
(00:51:33) – Evaluating the Supply vs Demand Story for the Post-Pandemic Inflation
(00:55:09) – Outro
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Thomas Drechsel is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Maryland. He joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the political pressure on the Fed and the new ways to measure monetary policy shocks. Thomas and David also discuss fiscal and monetary dominance, the impact of political pressure on inflation, why we should care about central bank independence, and more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Thomas’s website
Thomas’s Twitter: @td_econ
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*Estimating the Effects of Political Pressure on the Fed: A Narrative Approach with New Data* by Thomas Drechsel
*Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks: A Natural Language Approach* by S. Boragan Aruoba and Thomas Drechsel
*Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence* by Alberto Alesina and Lawrence Summers
*Narrative Sign Restrictions for SVARs* by Juan Antolin-Diaz and Juan Rubio-Ramirez
*Threats to Central Bank Independence: High-Frequency Indentifcation with Twitter* by Francesco Bianchi, Thilo Kind, and Howard Kung
*A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications* by Christina Romer and David Romer
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:04:47) – Why Should We Care About Central Bank Independence?
(00:08:01) – Fiscal and Monetary Dominance
(00:12:41) – Estimating the Effects of Political Pressure on the Fed
(00:27:14) – Breaking Down the Research Results
(00:36:46) – The Impact of Political Pressure on Inflation
(00:43:07) – Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks: Background, Methodology, and Results
(00:59:45) – Outro
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Matthew Pines is the director of intelligence for SentinelOne Strategic Advisory Group and is a veteran of the national security world. Matthew is also the author of several papers on cryptocurrencies and their implications for national security, including a recent one titled, *Great Power Network Competition & Bitcoin,* and he joins David on Macro Musings to talk about these linkages. Specifically, David and Matthew also discuss the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve proposal, the problems with our current network approach to national security, how digital currency can enhance dollar dominance worldwide, and much more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Matthew’s Twitter: @matthew_pines
Matthew’s Bitcoin Policy Institute profile
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*Great Power Network Competition & Bitcoin* by Matthew Pines
*National Security in the Digital Age: Bitcoin as a Tool for Modern Statecraft* by authors Matthew Pines, Ben Kincaid, Robert Malka, James McGinniss, Lee Bratcher, Pierre Rochard, Lindsey Daley, Gabriel Royal, Thomas Wood, Ian Gaines, and Kyle Schneps
*Global Discord: Values and Power in a Fractured World Order* by Paul Tucker
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:01:35) – Matthew’s Journey into the National Security Space
(00:07:56) – Evaluating the Current Level of Defense Expenditures
(00:12:17) – An Executive Summary of *Great Power Network Competition & Bitcoin*
(00:16:11) – Problems with Our Current Network Approach to National Security
(00:26:24) – The Intersection of Monetary Policy and National Security
(00:29:55) – How Can Digital Currency Enhance Dollar Dominance Across the Globe?
(00:38:32) – Breaking Down the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Proposal and Its Implications
(00:48:13) – The National Defense Authorization Act and the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Disclosure Act: Basics and Implications
(00:57:29) – Outro
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Travis Hill is the Vice Chairman of the FDIC Board of Directors, and he joins David on Macro Musings to talk about discount window and bank liquidity, receivership funding, and the tokenization of financial assets. Specifically, David and Travis also discuss the push for pre-positioning at the discount window, how the FDIC funds receiverships, the impact of tokenization on the future of banking, and much more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Travis’s FDIC profile
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*Reflections on Bank Regulatory and Resolution Issues* – Remarks by Vice Chairman Travis Hill at the American Enterprise Institute
*Banking’s Next Chapter? Remarks on Tokenization and Other Issues* – Remarks by Vice Chairman Travis Hill at the Mercatus Center
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:02:36) – The Unique Role of the FDIC and the Vice Chair
(00:10:58) – The Push for Pre-Positioning at the Discount Window
(00:20:19) – Addressing the Current Issues Relating to the Discount Window
(00:28:44) – How Does the FDIC Fund Receiverships?
(00:35:41) – Breaking Down the Federal Financing Bank
(00:40:10) – Discount Window Stigma and Uncollateralized Fed Funding
(00:45:44) – Tokenization and Its Impact on the Future of Banking and Cross-Border Payments
(00:54:40) – Outro
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Catherine Pakaluk is an Associate Professor of Social Research and Economic Thought at the Bush School of Business at the Catholic University of America. Catherine is also the author of a new book titled, *Hannah’s Children: The Women Quietly Defying the Birth Dearth,* and she joins David on Macro Musings to talk about it. Catherine and David also specifically discuss the facts of demographic decline, the women who are pushing back against this trend, its broader implications for the economy and society, and more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Catherine’s Twitter: @CRPakaluk
Catherine’s website
Catherine’s CUA profile
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*Hannah’s Children: The Women Quietly Defying the Birth Dearth* by Catherine Pakaluk
*Why Americans Aren’t Having Babies* by Rachel Wolfe
*No One Left: Why the World Needs More Children* by Paul Morland
*Promises I Can Keep: Why Poor Women Put Motherhood Before Marriage* by Kathryn Edin and Maria Kefalas
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:03:16) – *Hannah’s Children: The Women Quietly Defying the Birth Dearth*
(00:08:30) – The Facts of Demographic Decline
(00:12:48) – The Implications of Demographic Decline
(00:20:28) – Breaking Down the “Chain of Infinity”
(00:23:15) – The Forces Driving Demographic Decline
(00:32:18) – The Influence and Impact of Paul Ehrlich
(00:38:16) – The Motivation and Background for *Hannah’s Children*
(00:43:29) – Why Are Women Having Larger Families?
(00:52:18) – Exploring Pronatal Policy Recommendations
(00:57:03) – Outro
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Stephen Miran is a former senior advisor to the US Treasury Department, a senior strategist at Hudson Bay Capital, and a fellow at the Manhattan Institute. Stephen is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about his recent paper with Nouriel Roubini titled, *Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy,* as well as his thoughts on what a second Trump presidential term would mean for the Fed and financial markets.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Stephen’s Twitter: @SteveMiran
Stephen’s Manhattan Institute profile
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy* by Stephen Miran and Nouriel Roubini
*Trump Wants a Weaker Dollar But Wall Street Doubts He’ll Get One* by Saleha Mohsin and Carter Johnson
*Trump Allies Draw Up Plans to Blunt Fed’s Independence* by Andrew Restuccia, Nick Timiraos, and Alex Leary
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:01:49) – Breaking Down *Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy*
(00:21:33) – Responding to Criticism from Janet Yellen and Others
(00:28:21) – Addressing Trump’s Push for a Weaker Dollar
(00:38:24) – Can We Weaken the Dollar While Still Ensuring Its Use?
(00:43:07) – What a Second Trump Term Would Mean for Fed Independence and Crypto
(00:49:19) – Outro
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Carola Binder is an associate professor of civic leadership and economics at the University of Texas at Austin, and she is the author of a new book titled, *Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy.* Carola is also a returning guest to the podcast, and she rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about this book and some recent work she has done on the Fed’s framework review. David and Carola specifically discuss the history of inflation in the US, the advantages of adopting a nominal GDP targeting regime, what to expect from the Fed’s upcoming framework review, and more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Carola’s Twitter: @cconces
Carola’s website
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy* by Carola Binder
*Why Do We Dislike Inflation?* by Stefanie Stantcheva
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:03:42) – *Nominal GDP Targeting: Lessons from Recent History*
(00:12:18) – NGDP Level Targeting: Looking Through Supply Shocks and Policy Communication
(00:17:16) – *Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy*
(00:21:44) – The History of Inflation and Deflation in the US
(00:30:30) – Key Lessons from the Revolutionary War and Civil War Periods
(00:35:37) – The Impact of Price Controls During World War II
(00:40:42) – The Emergence of Price Stability: From the Great Inflation Period to the Present
(00:46:24) – The Direction of the Fed’s Framework Review
(00:49:22) – Outro
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Samim Ghamami is an economist at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), where he has been working on reforming the US Treasury market, and he joins David on Macro Musings to talk about these efforts. Samim and David also discuss the long run path of interest rates, the basics of the Treasury market, Samim’s outlook for Treasury market reform, and much more.
DISCLAIMER: Samim’s views are his own and do not represent those of his SEC colleagues, the commissioners, or the Chair.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Samim’s Twitter: @GhamamiSamim
Samim’s website
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:00:58) – Samim’s Journey to the SEC
(00:05:47) – Breaking Down the Size and Composition of the Treasury Market
(00:10:25) – Explaining the Long Run Path of Interest Rates
(00:18:48) – The Key Segments of the Treasury Market
(00:28:25) – Central Clearing as a Treasury Market Reform
(00:34:40) – Picking the Most Effective Treasury Market Reform
(00:37:39) – Samim’s Future Outlook for Other Treasury Market Reforms
(00:43:46) – Addressing Risk Concentration Concerns
(00:48:26) – Outro
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Kyla Scanlon is the founder of Bread, a financial education company where she brings economics to a wide and often younger audience, and is also the author of the book, *In This Economy? How Money and Markets Really Work.* Kyla joins David on Macro Musings to talk about a wide range of economic issues, including the case nominal GDP targeting, the basics of the “Vibecession” and the vibe economy, how to further build American wealth, and more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Kyla’s Twitter: @kylascan
Kyla’s website
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*In This Economy? How Money and Markets Really Work* by Kyla Scanlon
*Less Than Zero: The Case for a Falling Price Level in a Growing Economy* by George Selgin
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:01:06) – Kyla’s Academic and Professional Path
(00:15:20) – Flipping the Macro Musings Script: David’s NGDP Targeting Pitch
(00:30:52) – Breaking Down the “Vibecession” and the Vibe Economy
(00:34:41) – The Housing Side of a Vibe Economy
(00:38:54) – The Path to Growing American Wealth
(00:41:40) – The Issue of Population Growth
(00:44:15) – Gen Z’s Interest in Macroeconomics
(00:47:52) – How Should We Think About Labor Market Indicators?
(00:50:51) – Outro
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Sam Schulhofer-Wohl is the Senior Vice President and the Senior Advisor to the President of the Dallas Fed, Lorie Logan. Sam is a longtime veteran of the Federal Reserve System and has also previously served at the Minneapolis and Chicago Federal Reserve banks. Sam joins David on Macro Musings to talk about Treasury market resiliency issues, the floor system, the Friedman Rule, bank deposits, the monetary policy implications of labor migration across the United States, and much more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Sam’s Dallas Fed profile
Sam’s website
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*The Customer Settlement Risk Externality at US Securities Central Counterparties* by Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
*Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy, and Financial Stability* by Emily Greenwald, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, and Joshua Younger
*Understanding the Long-Run Decline in Interstate Migration* by Greg Kaplan and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
*Is a Treasury Central Clearing Mandate the Path to Increased Central Clearing?* by Marta Chaffee and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
*The Netting Efficiencies of Marketwide Central Clearing* by Michael Fleming and Frank Keane
*Ample Reserves and the Friedman Rule* - A speech by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan at the 2023 European Central Bank Conference on Money Markets
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:01:31) – Sam’s Wide-Ranging Career Path
(00:11:08) – The Customer Settlement Risk Externality
(00:14:30) – Breaking Down the Treasury Market
(00:18:38) – The Importance and Effectiveness of Central Clearing
(00:26:50) – The History and Role of FICC
(00:32:27) – All-to-all Trades as a Path to Reforming the Treasury Market
(00:36:52) – The Future Timeline for Central Clearing
(00:39:07) – *Ample Reserves and the Friedman Rule*
(00:46:52) – *Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy, and Financial Stability*
(00:52:21) – The Importance of Labor Migration for Monetary Policy
(00:59:42) – Outro
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Nicholas Anthony is a policy analyst at the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives, a fellow at the Human Rights Foundation, and is also a returning guest to the podcast. Nick rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about a new book he has authored titled, *Digital Currency or Digital Control: Decoding CBDC and the Future of Money.* Specifically, Nicholas and David discuss the history of CBDCs, their challenges and drawbacks, Nick’s recommendations for the future, and a lot more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Nick’s Twitter: @EconWithNick
Nick’s Cato profile
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*Digital Currency or Digital Control: Decoding CBDC and the Future of Money* by Nicholas Anthony
*Nicholas Anthony on the Current Prospects and Legislative Developments Surrounding CBDC* by Macro Musings
*Macroeconomic Modelling of CBDC: A Critical Review* by Ulrich Bindseil and Richard Senner
*Ulrich Bindseil on Central Bank Operating Systems* by Macro Musings
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:01:50) – The Future Prospects of CBDC: From Congress to the White House
(00:07:35) – The History of CBDCs
(00:11:19) – Breaking Down the Three Types of CBDCs
(00:17:22) – The Challenges and Drawbacks of CBDCs
(00:25:42) – The Buffer Between CBDCs and Privacy
(00:31:00) – Wholesale CBDCs, Real-time Payments, and Cross-border Payments
(00:41:06) – The Potential Destabilizing Effects of CBDCs
(00:46:12) – The Pros and Cons of a CBDC for the Fed
(00:53:23) – Responding to Pro-CBDC Arguments
(00:59:05) – Recommendations for the Future of CBDCs
(01:01:92) – Outro
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James Bullard was the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis from 2008 to 2023, and he is currently the dean of the Mitchell E. Daniels Jr. School of Business at Purdue University. James is also a previous guest of the show, and he rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about his time at the Fed, FAIT, and the upcoming Fed framework review. Specifically, James and David also discuss how to improve the FOMC’s economic reporting, the case for implementing nominal GDP targeting, the future of R-star, and much more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
James’s St. Louis Fed bio
James’s Purdue University profile
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*R-Star Wars: The Phantom Menace* - A presentation by James Bullard at the 34th Annual National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Economic Policy Conference
*Demand Shocks as Technology Shocks* by Yan Bai, Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, and Kjetil Storesletten
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:03:10) – Defining the St. Louis Fed and Bullard’s Fed Tenure
(00:09:58) – Comparing FAIT and Nominal GDP Targeting
(00:15:55) – Assessing the Current FAIT Framework
(00:25:37) – Evaluating the Recent V-Shaped Recovery
(00:29:28) – What to Expect from the Upcoming Fed Framework Review
(00:33:31) – Improving the FOMC’s Economic Reporting
(00:37:46) – The Case for Nominal GDP Targeting
(00:50:24) – The Future of R-Star
(00:53:52) – Outro
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Josh Lipsky is the senior director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center. Josh joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the tools of financial statecraft, how they have evolved over the years, and their implications for digital currencies moving forward. Specifically, David and Josh also discuss how financial statecraft would be applied to a possible conflict with China, the current state of the cross-border payments system, the future of wholesale CBDC in the US, and much more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Josh’s Twitter: @joshualipsky
Josh’s Atlantic Council profile
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*Sanctioning China in a Taiwan Crisis: Scenarios and Risks* by Charlie Vest, Agatha Kratz, Juliana Bouchaud, Josh Lipsky, Kimberly Donovan, Charles Lichfield, and Niels Graham.
*The Geopolitical Imperative to Upgrade the Dollar* by Jordan Bleicher and Josh Lipsky
*Stablecoins and National Security: Learning the Lessons of Eurodollars* by Timothy Massad
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:04:02) – The Russia Sanctions as an Example of Financial Statecraft
(00:10:14) – The Financing of the Russia-Ukraine War
(00:14:08) – The Delicacy of Legal Precedents and the REPO Act
(00:19:10) – Breaking Down the Tools of Financial Statecraft
(00:22:08) – Applying Financial Statecraft to a Possible China Conflict
(00:28:52) – Cross-border Payments and the Global Status of the US Dollar
(00:34:05) – Breaking Down the Development and Geopolitical Importance of mBridge
(00:38:34) – The Future and Importance of Wholesale CBDC in the US
(00:43:28) – Private Sector Alternatives to CBDCs
(00:45:05) – Where is the CBDC Conversation Headed?
(00:49:25) – Closing Thoughts: The 80th Anniversary of Bretton Woods and the Future of Dollar Dominance
(00:52:48) – Outro
- Montre plus
