Episodes
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Former Fed board economist Joseph Gagnon thinks President-Elect Donald Trump's tariff and immigration policies will push up inflation again, forcing the Fed to halt rate cuts.
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The inflation expectations of eurozone consumers are surprisingly in line with macroeconomic developments and can provide a useful reality check to professional forecasts, European Central Bank economist Omiros Kouvavas told MNI.
“Consumer expectations feed into consumers’ actions,” Kouvavas told an MNI podcast, adding that he expected them to continue to track the macroeconomic situation with a lag.
The link to the ECB's Article: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/html/eb202407.en.html#toc19 -
Episodes manquant?
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The inflationary impact on the eurozone from potential Middle East oil disruptions would have “half the firepower” of the 2022 gas crisis, in the absence of a “catastrophic scenario” involving the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a senior European Commission energy analyst told MNI.
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Bob Dugan, chief economist of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., discusses the industry's capacity limits and falling interest rates.
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The Federal Reserve can't sustain 50 basis point rate cuts if the economy and the labor market remain strong and inflation pressures linger, ex-NY Fed executive Ricks Roberts told MNI.
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Ricardo Reis, an LSE professor who advises the Richmond Fed, the Bank of England and the Riksbank, tells MNI the Fed is likely to take an incremental approach to rate cuts.
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Former Fed board governor Jeremy Stein tells MNI he thinks inflation will be sticky around 2.5%, forcing the Fed to be gradual about the pace of rate cuts barring some serious deterioration in the labor market.
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Tony Stillo, Canadian economist at Oxford Economics and a former Ontario forecasting official, says the Bank of Canada will space out rate cuts given lingering wage and price inflation.
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Former Chicago Fed President Charles Evans talks to MNI about the outlook for U.S. monetary policy, arguing that the Fed is justified in waiting to see if inflation is heading back sustainably to its 2% goal.
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In a wide-ranging interview, former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair talks to MNI about Federal Reserve policy, financial stability and the outlook for banking regulation.
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Former St. Louis Fed policy adviser David Andolfatto is worried that fiscal largesse will prevent the Federal Reserve from reaching its 2% inflation goal anytime soon.
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Devlin Capital founder Ed Devlin discusses the outlook for Bank of Canada interest-rate cuts this year and how officials will manage sticky inflation and a weakening economy.
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The euro area economy and inflationary dynamics are “still far away from a normal post-pandemic situation,” as supply-side shocks still resonate, the European Central Bank’s Director General for Economics at the Oscar Arce told MNI.
“We are still seeing the persistent effects of the chain of shocks. It is not only the pandemic but it is the pandemic plus the energy crisis the geopolitical uncertainty created by the war in Ukraine but also by the Middle East,” Arce told an MNI podcast, in which he discussed an ECB Occasional Paper on post-pandemic inflation. -
The U.S. Treasury market is still vulnerable to bouts of illiquidity and volatility although reforms like central clearing should help, says Samim Ghamami, an economist who is working on the issue at the Securities and Exchange Commission.
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Financial market-based measures and surveys proved more reliable than macroeconomic models at estimating the neutral real rate of interest during the abrupt economic fluctuations of the pandemic, European Central Bank economists told MNI, adding that r-star is now at similar levels to pre-Covid times.
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Former Fed board governor Kevin Warsh thinks the Fed's signaling of rate cuts this year prematurely loosened financial conditions, making its own job of bringing inflation back to 2% harder.
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Former Ontario forecaster and Canada Director at Oxford Economics Tony Stillo says the central bank will want to avoid public backlash against any misstep towards lower interest rates, and says that will delay a rate cut until June and keep it well above neutral all year.
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Federal Reserve officials will probably wait until midyear before lowering interest rates despite market hopes for cuts as early as March, as inflation data stay choppy in coming months before resuming a downward trend, former Fed board economist Seth Carpenter told MNI
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The eurozone economy is likely to avoid recession, but inflation should slow sufficiently for the European Central Bank to reduce its benchmark deposit rate by around 150 basis points this year, former ECB economist Riccardo Trezzi told MNI.
Markets are moving rapidly to price in cuts, noted Trezzi, who said that while January’s Governing Council meeting should produce little change the possibility of downward surprises to inflation meant that cuts could begin to be considered by as early as March.
“When markets understand that something has changed, in this case for the good, they always go ahead of the curve and try to anticipate because it’s the way you make money,” said Trezzi, who worked on the Federal Reserve Board’s inflation desk before taking on a similar role at the ECB. - Montre plus
