Episodes
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Veteran trader Jason Shapiro joins Jack to share how he perceives positioning across FX, Equities, commodities, and bonds. He thinks the crowded long dollar trade has created a set-up for the Euro to rally, and he estimates that traders are a bit too short of oil and natural gas. Equities is in the “too hard” column so he is neutral, however he sees some short-term risks. Recorded on November 12, 2024.
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Hedge fund strategies like distressed, long short equities, relative value, etc. are well defined and understood by allocators. As a result, funds that fit neatly into these style boxes can easily answer the question, “what type of fund are you?” But what if you don’t fit neatly into one of these boxes? Be too exact and no one will search for your niche strategy. Push the envelope to fit into one of these boxes and suddenly investors feel like they’ve been tricked into a meeting. This is a problem that Louis Camhi, founder and CIO of RLH Capital, has had to deal with since launching his SPAC focused strategy in 2021. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Camhi discusses why educating investors about SPACs and defining his fund for style box focused investors has been harder than finding interesting SPAC trades. They also touch on outsourcing back and middle office, the little things you don’t think about when you are working for a larger fund, and the tradeoffs between SMAs and pooled vehicles.
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Episodes manquant?
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Citrini, the thematic cross-asset investor known for his prescient and profitable calls on AI and GLP-1s, joins Monetary Matters to review with Jack his “Trump basket” which since its inception in March 4, 2024 to November 8, 2024 is up 87% (his Trump market neutral basket is up 32% over the same time horizon). Citrini explains why he created the basket and how its performance tracked and often predicted Trump’s odds of winning in the betting markets. Upon Trump’s victory, he tells Jack which parts of the basket he thinks are overheated and which have room to run. Citrini also shares his views on AI, the broad stock and bond markets, and the airline industry. Recorded on November 8, 2024.
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The Federal Reserve continued its course of interest rate cuts in the first FOMC
meeting following the election of Donald Trump and a defiant Chairman Powell strongly
rejected any notion that Trump’s presidency could affect the independence of the
Federal Reserve. Here, Jack Farley and Max Wiethe discuss the Fed’s move in light of
recent data, the stock market’s run both before and after Trump’s election, and their
outlooks for stocks and the economy moving forward. Recorded on November 7th , 2024.
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Harris Kupperman, CIO and Founder of Praetorian Capital joins Max Wiethe to share how he’s grown his firm to over $300 million in AUM, largely by breaking the institutional mold. They discuss Kupperman’s choice to build a strategy with UHNW investors and family offices in mind rather than traditional institutional investors and the benefits of a diversified base of LPs. They also discuss the firm’s blog Kuppy’s Korner, the importance of authenticity in brand building, and his choice to register the fund as a 506(c).
Clarification: At 50:48 Harris mentions that almost half the capital in the fund is from gains. As of September 30th, 2024 44% of the fund's capital is from gains.
Sign up for Kuppy’s Korner at: https://pracap.com
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Email [email protected] to inquire about Henley & Partners, and Jack will connect you with Basil.
Basil Mohr-Elzeki, Managing Director and Head of Americas for Henley & Partners, joins Jack on Monetary Matters to explain why more millionaires than ever are going to relocate countries in 2024. He delves into the causes of this phenomenon, the nuances of citizenship and residency investment, and the role that taxes, geographic diversification and other factors play in driving the migration of the world’s high-net-worth individuals.
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Jeff Snider of Eurodollar University joins Jack to explore whether the inverted yield curve signal has been proven wrong, and just how strong or weak the U.S. economy is. Recorded on October 28, 2024.
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Building a successful hedge fund is hard. It’s even harder when you’re fighting the perpetual upward momentum of the market. Despite this headwind, Carson Block, CIO and Founder of Muddy Waters Capital, has made his firm into a successful fund management business and taken down billion-dollar frauds in the process. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Block explains why starting a fund became necessary to pursue activist short selling in a serious capacity, the pitfalls of capital raising and the different types of investors who are interested in specialized strategies like theirs, and how he is expanding his business with new strategies beyond activist short selling. Recorded on October 21st, 2024.
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David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., joins Jack Farley on Monetary Matters to argue why a recession is likely to occur as soon as 2025. Rosenberg points to the low savings rate and argues that fiscal deficits and a stock market price bubble are boosting consumer spending and that this will reverse if the stock market stops going up. Recorded on October 25, 2024.
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Chris Whalen of Whalen Global Advisors & Institutional Risk Analyst joins Jack Farley to explain why bank stocks are partying like it’s 1997 again. Recorded on October 21, 2024.
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Chris Whalen’s latest book, “Seeing Around Corners,” https://www.freedommortgage.com/seeingaroundcorners
Lev Menand & Joshua Younger paper that Chris references: https://scholarship.law.columbia.edu/faculty_scholarship/4093/
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Investing legend Jim Rogers joins Jack Farley on Monetary Matters to share timeless investing lessons. Rogers warns that people who blindly follow financial pundits without doing their own analysis are likely doomed to underperform, and he explains why he is a long-term bull on Chinese shares. Rogers argues that the unprecedented sovereign debt levels in the U.S. will reignite inflation, and explains why he continues to view silver as an effective inflation hedge. Recorded on October 17, 2024.
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Beeland Interests https://www.beelandinterests.com/
Jim Rogers’ website https://www.jimrogers.com/
Jim Rogers’ Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Rogers -
Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Bianco Advisors joins Monetary Matters to share his views on inflation, the labor market, and bonds. Bianco argues that the reason the unemployment rate has gone up is because the large amount of immigration into the U.S. has increased the labor force. Bianco makes the case that inflation is headed higher and bond yields now are probably headed higher. Recorded on October 14, 2024.
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Jared Dillian, author of The Daily Dirtnap and of “Night Moves: And other stories” joins Monetary Matters to discuss his thoughts behind a recent piece he wrote called “The Next Big Short: Hidden Risks Behind Private Equity's $8 Trillion Market.” Jared explains why he has shorted private equity companies and why he thinks private equity has peaked as an asset class and is destined for underperformance over the next decade. Recorded on October 11, 2024.
Jared’s piece, ““The Next Big Short: Hidden Risks Behind Private Equity's $8 Trillion Market”: https://m.jareddillianmoney.com/private-equity-next-big-short
Jared’s Short Private Equity website: https://www.shortprivateequity.com/
Jared’s latest book, “Night Moves: And other stories”: https://www.amazon.com/Night-Moves-stories-Jared-Dillian/dp/B0DFBJS741
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SPECIAL “ASK ME ANYTHING” PROMOTION: Leave a rating and review for Monetary Matters on Apple podcast and ask Jack any question you want. Jack will answer some of the questions in future episodes. You can write the question in the body of the review, or you can send your question to to [email protected] alongside a screenshot of your review.
Brian McCarthy of Macrolens LLC joins Jack Farley to argue that the tremendous Chinese stock market rally of the past three weeks is fueled by misunderstanding of Chinese economic policy. McCarthy argues that the fiscal stimulus from the Chinese government will be 1 - 2 Trillion Yuan, or ~300 Billion USD, which McCarthy estimates is nowhere near close enough to stimulate the flailing Chinese economy. Recorded the afternoon of October 8, 2024.
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Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy joins Monetary Matters to explain why she is bullish on Chinese equities on a multi-year time horizon, and to share why she thinks nothing will stop the American economy because of the large amount of fiscal deficits the U.S government is running. Recorded on September 30, 2024.
Teucrium’s US Agriculture ETFs provide exposure to commodities like corn, wheat, soybeans, and sugar in a convenient size and ETF wrapper, right in your traditional brokerage account. Learn more at https://teucrium.com/
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Despite rising tensions in the Middle East, today’s guest thinks that the price of oil is headed not higher but lower. Paul Sankey of Sankey Research joins Jack Farley on Monetary Matters to share why he thinks the price of oil is headed to as low as $50 as millions of barrels of capacity come online in Guyana, the U.S., and elsewhere, and as Saudi Arabia begins to focus on market share once again. Recorded on October 4, 2024.
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Financial Times article on Saudi desire to take back market share: https://www.ft.com/content/1d186f62-5941-4f9e-aef1-7d93a8a696cd -
Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, outlines his favorite trades right now and explains why he thinks bonds are fully cooked without an imminent recession. He argues that selling interest rate vol is one of the best ways to play this fully cooked bond market and explains how new issue agency MBS and other callable bonds can be used to take advantage of the richness in bond volatility. Filmed on September 26, 2024.
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Learn more about Simplify https://www.simplify.us -
China’s central bank just shocked markets with several impressive sounding stimulus measures, causing the biggest one-week rally in Chinese stocks since 2008. But how effective is this stimulus actually going to be to the Chinese economy? Leland Miller, co-founder & CEO of China Beige Book, joins Monetary Matters to weigh on this very important issue. Leland says he thinks the rally in Chinese stocks could continue for up to two months but that the effect on the Chinese economy will be to stabilize rather than to stimulate. Recorded on September 27, 2024.
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Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research, joins Monetary Matters to update his prior call that the US economy would not enter a recession. He explains why a soft landing is still his base case and why he thinks the Fed is properly positioned to engineer that outcome even if soft economic data forces them to cut rates more aggressively. Recorded on September 21, 2024.
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Learn more about Renaissance Macro Research: https://www.renmac.com
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Kris Sidial, co-CIO of Ambrus Group, joins Monetary Matters to break down the conditions in volatility markets that exacerbated the sharp sell-off in early August, and explain why he thinks the risks embedded in the "short vol" trade have only gotten worse. Recorded on September 20, 2024.
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