Episodes
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In this Global Macro Update, Nik highlights bitcoin’s breakout above a key descending trendline and a textbook bullish divergence on the RSI—two technical signals suggesting the recent downtrend may be losing steam. But the bigger story is gold, which is exploding higher in what looks like the early stages of a full-scale monetary reset. With the dollar breaking multi-year support and massive gold inflows hitting the U.S., Nik explores the possibility of a global repricing, driven by collapsing commercial shorts and currency pressure abroad. He connects the dots between price action, trade war policy, capital charge relief, and the escalating financial war reshaping global asset markets.
Link to Tom Luongo Caitlin Long episode: https://tomluongo.me/2025/04/19/podcast-episode-213-caitlin-long-and-the-financial-crisis-that-wasnt/
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Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Chapters:
00:00:00 Analyzing Bitcoin's Bullish Divergence
00:03:37 Bitcoin's Path to New Highs
00:07:09 Gold Market Analysis and Breakout Predictions
00:10:43 Gold Revaluation and the Global Monetary Reset
00:14:17 The Impact of a Weakening Dollar on Gold Prices
00:19:00 The Impact of Gold Delivery on Commercial Shorts
00:21:32 The Reality Behind a Strong Dollar Policy
00:24:46 Presidential Economic Mandate and Currency Manipulation
00:28:08 Origins and Impact of the Euro Dollar System
00:31:39 Understanding the Concept of Time
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
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In this episode, Nik Bhatia is joined by Demian Schatt to examine why the US Treasury market is fundamentally strengthening despite recent volatility. Nik explains key concepts including SLR reform, Treasury buybacks of off-the-run securities, and current repo market dynamics that are supporting market stability. The conversation also explores how deregulation and fiscal discipline will be crucial for long-term Treasury strength and economic growth.
Matt Pines Episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTotxDkCvyY
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📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
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Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc
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Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Chapters:
00:00:00 Market Insights with Nik Bhatia
00:05:57 Current Issues in the Treasury Market
00:11:34 Understanding the Role of Treasuries in Banking Liquidity
00:17:08 Understanding Treasury Securities: On-the-Run vs. Off-the-Run
00:23:13 Understanding Bond Liquidity in the Repo Market
00:28:30 Understanding Budget Neutrality and Debt Neutrality
00:33:44 Understanding Repo Markets and Interest Rates
00:38:58 Budget Deficit Reduction Goals
00:44:42 Impact of Oil Prices on the Economy
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
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Episodes manquant?
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In this episode, Nik is joined by Matt Pines, executive director of the Bitcoin Policy Institute, to unpack what could be the biggest shift in U.S. geoeconomic strategy in decades. Together, they explore the vision behind a potential “Bretton Woods 2.0”—a new system emerging from reciprocal tariffs, capital wars, and a shrinking global dollar zone. They dive deep into how the U.S. is building a trade and monetary alliance to isolate China, restructure global capital flows, and re-anchor demand for U.S. Treasuries. With gold, stablecoins, and possibly bitcoin playing growing roles in global settlements, this conversation lays out what a new financial order might look like—and where U.S. policy could be heading next.
Links to articles:
- https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/04/cea-chairman-steve-miran-hudson-institute-event-remarks/
- https://www.btcpolicy.org/articles/a-global-economic-reordering-us-china-competition-and-bitcoin-as-tool-of-us-statecraft
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Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Chapters:
00:00:00 Understanding the Breton Woods Reimagined
00:06:20 Global Economic and Security Challenges
00:12:21 Understanding the Dual Public Good: Defense and Reserve Currency
00:19:19 Challenges in Global Defense Manufacturing
00:25:46 Transition from LIBOR to SOFR: Understanding the Global Benchmark
00:31:02 Understanding Government Dollar Policies
00:37:03 International Negotiations: Gold, Bitcoin, and Stablecoins in Currency Talks
00:42:53 China's Strategic Devaluation of Yuan and Gold's Role
00:48:39 Strategies to Isolate China: Global Economic Alliances
00:54:40 Matt Pines and Bitcoin Policy Insights
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
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In this episode, Nik Bhatia is joined by Demian Schatt to break down one of the most volatile 48-hour stretches in recent bond market history. As Treasury yields spiked 60 basis points and the MOVE Index surged, Nik unpacks the hidden mechanics behind the dislocation—explaining how a highly leveraged basis trade began to unwind, triggering forced selling and market-wide panic. He walks through the role of China’s currency devaluation, the impact of new 125% tariffs, and how synthetic credit in the swaps market amplified the chaos. With bond volatility ripping, Nik explores what it means for the Fed’s reaction function, financial stability, and bitcoin’s surprising strength. Holding steady at $80,000 through it all, bitcoin is beginning to look like the safe haven asset markets weren’t expecting.
📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
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The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
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In this episode, Nik is joined by PhD economist Peter St. Onge for a masterclass on the strategic use of tariffs in Trump’s economic agenda. Peter explains how tariffs serve as strategic tools, not protectionist measures, to reshape global trade, revive U.S. manufacturing, and drive domestic deregulation. He breaks down America’s asymmetric trade relationships with Europe, China, and Mexico, and outlines why Trump’s approach is grounded in realpolitik. Peter also explores the Fed’s role in enabling crisis-driven spending and how Bitcoin offers a way out of fiat dysfunction. Closing with the global stakes of shifting trade policy, he reveals how tariffs fit into a broader strategy to restore U.S. economic power.
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Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
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In this Global Macro Update, Nik Bhatia breaks down one of the most chaotic weeks in markets this year, using price action to explain the forces driving volatility across treasuries, stocks, Bitcoin, and the dollar. He outlines how the recent collapse in 2-year yields to 3.5% confirms that the Fed's hiking cycle is over, with rate cuts still expected even amid a strong labor market. Nik zooms out on the steepening yield curve to show how forward inflation expectations are reentering the market, while bond volatility—measured by the MOVE index—spikes to levels that are now dragging down risk assets. He explains how reciprocal tariffs, a weaker dollar, and the administration's focus on restoring trade leverage all feed into tightening financial conditions. The episode wraps with a close look at key support levels across the S&P 500 and Bitcoin—and what their breakdown could mean for the Fed’s next move.
📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
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Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc
Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Chapters:
00:00:00 Introduction to Global Market Volatility
00:05:32 Understanding the Fed's Policy Rate and Market Expectations
00:11:20 Impact of Federal Reserve's Rate Changes on the Economy
00:17:06 Impact of Trump Victory on Inflation Expectations
00:22:41 Trump's Strategy for a Weaker Dollar
00:27:54 Impact of Tariffs on Currency Manipulation and Trade
00:33:38 The Technology Cold War with China
00:38:59 Stock Market Trends and Volatility
00:44:35 Analyzing Bitcoin's Critical Green Trend Line
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
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In this episode, Demian Schott welcomes Yaël Ossowski of the Consumer Choice Center and Bitcoin Policy Institute to break down major shifts in U.S. Bitcoin policy. Yaël explains how Congress’s repeal of the IRS’s DeFi broker rule is a win for privacy and innovation, and why a de minimis tax exemption is key to using Bitcoin as real money. He outlines budget-neutral strategies to grow the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and highlights the need for stablecoin legislation, money transmission reform, and the Keep Your Coins Act. With real momentum in Congress and agencies, Yaël shares why he’s optimistic that lasting reforms are finally underway to protect self-custody and unleash Bitcoin as a parallel monetary system.
📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
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Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc
Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Chapters:
00:00:00 Understanding the IRS DeFi Broker Rule and Its Repeal
00:04:20 The Importance of Seed Phrase Security
00:08:35 Tax Policy and Bitcoin Adoption
00:12:39 Cryptocurrency Lobbying in DC
00:16:50 Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Policy Focus
00:21:00 Bitcoin Adoption by Major Companies
00:25:11 Precautionary Principle in Innovation
00:29:27 Understanding Bitcoin's Decentralized Network
00:33:44 Navigating Bitcoin's Legal Challenges
00:37:51 Farewell and Future Bitcoin Insights
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
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In this episode, Nik explains how the Federal Reserve’s slowdown in quantitative tightening (QT) is impacting Bitcoin and risk markets. He breaks down the balance sheet mechanics behind QT, showing how fewer Treasury runoffs reduce the burden on private investors, leaving more liquidity in the system. With fewer deposits redirected to government debt, more capital remains available for assets like Bitcoin and equities. Citing insights from former Fed trader Joseph Wang, Nik illustrates how even a modest shift in QT can influence market sentiment and asset prices—without any new money printing.
Link to article: https://fedguy.com/quantitative-tightening-step-by-step/
📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
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Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc
Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball
Chapters:
00:00:00 Why Bitcoin is Pumping After Fed's QT Slowdown
00:01:46 Integrating Self-Custody in Retirement Planning
00:03:26 Understanding Quantitative Easing vs. Quantitative Tightening
00:05:26 Understanding the US Government Deficit and Debt Dynamics
00:07:21 Understanding the Treasury Debt Rollovers and Their Impact on the Fed
00:09:06 Understanding the Role of Investors in Treasury Securities
00:10:50 Understanding Corporate Bonds and Deposits in the Economy
00:12:47 Understanding Treasury and Fed Balance Sheets
00:14:41 Impact of QT Announcement on Bitcoin and Markets
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
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In this episode, Nik decodes the Fed’s strategy as Bitcoin surges on the central bank’s decision to slow QT while maintaining its commitment to rate cuts. He breaks down what the Fed’s decision means for liquidity, why banks are holding onto reserves, and how this shift impacts risk assets. Nik also unpacks the latest moves in global bond markets, with Japanese and German yields spiking while U.S. Treasuries remain supported. With TBL’s proprietary liquidity metrics providing key insights, he connects the dots across Bitcoin, stocks, bonds, and global flow to assess what’s next for markets.
📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
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Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball
Chapters:
00:00:00 Bitcoin Surges as Fed Adjusts Economic Policy
00:03:25 Enhancing Bitcoin Security: The Importance of Seed Phrase Protection
00:07:36 Understanding the September 2019 Repo Crisis
00:10:44 Jerome Powell's Comments on Money Market and QT
00:14:11 Understanding Bank Capitalization and Reserves
00:17:46 Bitcoin's Price Surge and Fed's Impact
00:21:22 Impact of Mortgage Basis on US Economy
00:25:12 Impact of Tariffs on Inflation
00:29:00 Japan's Bond Market Crisis
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
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In this global macro update, Nik analyzes the latest economic data and market moves, from recession fears and falling stock prices to Bitcoin’s rebound. He breaks down the drop in consumer sentiment, the wealth effect’s impact on spending, and the yield curve’s steepening as markets price in rate cuts. With Treasury yields falling and gold hitting $3,000, he examines liquidity conditions and shifting inflation expectations. Nik wraps up with Bitcoin’s technical and on-chain indicators, assessing what the latest price action signals for the market ahead.
📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/bitcoinage
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
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Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc
Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball
Chapters:
00:00:00 Understanding Market Volatility and Recession Fears
00:03:52 Current State of the US Economy and Consumer Sentiment
00:07:36 FED Rate Cuts Expected in 2025
00:11:26 Global Monetary Shifts and China's Gold Strategy
00:14:58 Understanding US Treasury Yields and Market Expectations
00:18:34 Understanding the US Treasury Deficit and Market Impact
00:22:15 Understanding the MOVE Index and Its Impact on Risk Assets
00:26:07 The Impact of Bond Volatility on Market Dynamics
00:29:44 Economic Slowdown and Its Impact on Inflation
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
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In this episode, Nik welcomes Vaughn Kellerman of Sound Advisory to discuss financial planning for Bitcoin holders. With Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million, they explore strategies for managing taxes, estate planning, and retirement while minimizing risk. Vaughn breaks down tax-efficient selling, inheritance planning, and portfolio structuring to balance Bitcoin with traditional assets. They also cover capital gains, multi-bucket tax planning, and charitable giving, outlining practical steps to preserve wealth and ensure a seamless transfer of assets.
📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Age-Nik-Bhatia-ebook/dp/B0DZY38QR1
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
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Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc
Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball
Chapters:
00:00:00 Navigating Bitcoin Investment with Sound Advisory
00:03:32 Strategies for Tax Planning with Bitcoin
00:06:38 Importance of Seeking Professional Financial Advice
00:10:14 Navigating Bitcoin Tax Implications
00:13:31 The Role of Estate Planning in Financial Security
00:16:39 ETF Strategies for Bitcoin Investors
00:20:27 Fiduciary Duty and Bitcoin Investment Strategy
00:23:42 The Epiphany on Bitcoin's Scarcity and Value
00:27:23 The Scarcity of Bitcoin Compared to Gold
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
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In this episode, Nik welcomes back Michael Howell, founder of CrossBorder Capital and author of Capital Wars, to discuss global liquidity and the mounting case for a U.S. gold revaluation. Howell explains why M2 is outdated, highlighting the shift to asset-based liquidity as a better market gauge. They explore the U.S. debt spiral, pressure on the Fed to resume QE, and China’s role in shaping liquidity. Howell also examines how a gold revaluation could inject much-needed liquidity into the system as debt levels surge. With tightening financial conditions and shifting risk appetite, this conversation unpacks why liquidity—not interest rates—drives markets.
📚 Bitcoin Age is here, pre-order yours today: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DQK2RQ5J
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
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The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
-
In this episode, Nik sits down with Matt Pines, the new Executive Director of the Bitcoin Policy Institute, to discuss the U.S. government's evolving Bitcoin strategy. They break down the push for a Bitcoin strategic reserve, the political forces shaping policy, and why Bitcoin is essential for economic resilience. Matt explains how government agencies are aligning on Bitcoin’s role, the potential for funding through gold revaluation, and the broader geopolitical stakes. With Bitcoin at the center of financial and policy debates, this conversation highlights how the U.S. is positioning for a Bitcoin-backed future.
📚 Bitcoin Age is here, pre-order yours today: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DQK2RQ5J
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
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The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
-
📚 Bitcoin Age is available for pre-order now: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DQK2RQ5J
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
-
In this episode, Nik delivers a global macro update as Bitcoin tumbles over 12% this week, down more than 20% from all-time highs. He breaks down the drivers behind this pullback, from shifting risk sentiment to key technical levels, and what it means for the broader market. Nik also unpacks the latest stock market weakness, the sharp drop in Treasury yields, and emerging policy signals from the White House. With TBL’s proprietary metric providing critical insights, he connects the dots across Bitcoin, stocks, bonds, and global liquidity to assess what’s next for markets.
📚 Bitcoin Age is available for pre-order now: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DQK2RQ5J
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
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The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
-
Bitcoin Age is available for pre-order now: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DQK2RQ5J
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
-
In this episode, Nik delivers a global macro update as Bitcoin coils for its next major move, with key indicators flashing signals of imminent volatility. He analyzes Bitcoin’s price action relative to its 200-day moving average and short-term holder realized price, revealing why the market is primed for expansion. Nik examines ETF-driven on-chain movements, breaking down how institutional flows are reshaping liquidity and driving demand. With TBL’s proprietary metric signaling a supportive environment, he connects the dots across stocks, bonds, and commodities, explaining why macro conditions are setting up for Bitcoin’s breakout.
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
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Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc
Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
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In this episode, Nik explores the growing movement among U.S. states to establish strategic Bitcoin reserves, with 20 proposed bills representing up to $23 billion in potential Bitcoin purchases. He breaks down the states pushing these initiatives, the legislative progress of key bills, and the impact of these reserves on state budgets and pension funds. The discussion moves to the broader implications of government Bitcoin adoption, the limited daily supply available, and how these purchases could drive significant price pressure. Closing with insights on global adoption, Nik examines how Bitcoin reserve strategies are spreading beyond the U.S., with signs of interest from Japan, Russia, and other nations.
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
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Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc
Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
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In this episode, Nik unveils a bold idea to split the U.S. dollar, separating the eurodollar system from a new national currency. Before diving in, he breaks down key economic shifts shaping Bitcoin, including the administration’s focus on productivity, deregulation, and credit expansion. The discussion moves to government efficiency, Elon Musk’s audit of federal spending, and how cutting waste could strengthen the Treasury market. Nik then examines the push to eliminate the IRS, the sovereign wealth fund as a potential revenue source, and Bitcoin’s role in this new framework. Closing with his dollar split concept, he explores how a new national currency could break free from the Fed’s global banking system, redefining America’s financial future.
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer
📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial
🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch
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⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc
Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
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In this episode, Nik answers questions from Augustine Carrasco, TBL’s own researcher, on U.S. Treasuries, sovereign wealth, and Bitcoin’s role in government reserves. Nik breaks down the Treasury market’s size, liquidity, and the need for continuous debt issuance, explaining how deficits, interest rates, and market demand shape economic policy. The discussion moves to tariffs, their impact on inflation, and whether ISM manufacturing’s rise signals inflationary pressures. Augustine asks if tariffs are meant to restore U.S. manufacturing, while Nik argues they are driven by geopolitical strategy. Turning to the sovereign wealth fund, Nik examines its ties to China, the risks of moral hazard, and whether Bitcoin could play a role as a strategic reserve in a rapidly shifting global financial order.
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer
📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial
🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch
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⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc
Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
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