Episodes
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In October 2023, The European Commission launched an anti-subsidy investigation into the imports of Chinese battery electric vehicles. Furthermore, the commission has instructed customs authorities to start registering the import of electric vehicles from China so that the EU could impose retroactive tariffs. As the decision day on whether to impose definitive duties approaches, Beijing becomes increasingly agitated. Meanwhile, Chinese carmakers BYD and Geely-owned Volvo are ramping up investments in electric vehicle (EV) production across Central Europe, with other companies likely to follow suit. While these investments are generally welcomed by local governments, they are viewed by some as posing additional risks to the European automotive industry.
This month’s guest
Gregor Sebastian, Senior Analyst at Rhodium Group.Show notes
Ain’t No Duty High Enough Pole Position: Chinese EV Investments Boom Amid Growing Political Backlash Tipping Point? Germany and China in an Era of Zero-Sum Competition -
In early May, Chinese President Xi Jinping made a state visit to France to celebrate the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and France. This visit, his first to Europe since the pandemic began, occurred against the backdrop of the EU investigation into Chinese electric vehicle exports and Beijing’s retaliatory probe into imports of French-made brandy. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, participated in the tripartite meeting, adding a European dimension to the discussions. The leaders jointly urged Xi to tackle issues related to China’s overcapacity in electric vehicles and green technologies and addressed the issue of China’s export of dual-use technologies to Russia. Despite raising these concerns, the two sides concluded 32 agreements during the visit. Xi then continued his European tour to Serbia and Hungary, where he sought to strengthen ties, a move perceived by some as an attempt to create divisions within Europe.
This month’s guest
Abigaël Vasselier, Director Policy & European Affairs/Head of Program Foreign Relations at Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS).Show notes
China’s Missing Offer to Europe ahead of the EU-China Summit “Sur la Russie, le message de Xi Jinping à l’Occident est très clair” -
Episodes manquant?
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While it is true that China has served as a crucial economic support for Russia during the war in Ukraine, it has not fully compensated for the decline in Russian export revenue from the EU. Beijing has supplied Moscow with dual-use goods and technology but there has been no direct provision of lethal military equipment from China to Russia, as the Chinese government and businesses are wary of triggering Western secondary sanctions and losing access to the European market. Thus, It is unlikely that the Chinese government and defense companies will substantially support Russia with heavy weaponry and ammunition in its ongoing conflict against Ukraine. One reason for China holding back is the nuanced and cautious attitude of its foreign policy elites on Russia’s war.
This month’s guest
Dr Thomas Eder, Visiting Fellow at China Observers in Central and Eastern Europe (CHOICE), Post-Doc Researcher at the Austrian Institute for International Affairs (oiip).Show notes
Will China Save Russia’s Military in 2023? – Chinese Expert Debates on China-Russia Relations and the Long War in Ukraine Chinese Approaches to the Eastern Neighborhood Moscow’s Failed Pivot to China China-Russia Relations in Central Asia -
In the past few years, Hungary has seen a surge in new investments from Chinese companies in the EV industry. Chinese battery and EV makers have been attracted by the favorable political climate and generous state support. Additionally, Hungary and China have been working towards closer collaboration in the areas of policing and security. During a recent visit by China's Minister of Public Security, Wang Xiaohong, the two countries signed a series of agreements aimed at improving cooperation in these areas. This will allow Chinese police to patrol alongside Hungarian police on Hungarian soil. As a result of these developments, Hungary is increasingly becoming a hub of Chinese influence in the region. In the past, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been accused of acting as a trojan horse for China within the EU, as he has opposed measures aimed at China. With Hungary's growing dependency on China, this trend is likely to continue.
This month’s guest
Szabolcs Panyi, Investigative Editor at the VSquare Project.
Show notes
Goulas: Tales of Spying, Smuggling, and Chinese Influence Hungary Could Turn into China's Trojan Horse in Europe The Fight Over Fudan: A Chinese University in Budapest Sparks Reckoning for Sino-Hungarian Relations -
In January 2024, the European Commission revealed five new initiatives aimed at advancing the implementation of its Economic Security Strategy, which was formally introduced in the summer of the previous year. The proposal seeks to tighten inbound investment screening rules and create greater export control conformity within the EU. With regard to outbound investment screening, which is the most controversial issue of the package, the Commission remains relatively sober. The strategy calls for a risk assessment of outbound investment and related security issues through a public consultation process. The package puts a strong focus on research security. However, there is little that can be done at the EU level since the competencies are mainly spread among national, sub-national, and institutional levels in the Member States. While the package aims to scale up dual-use and advanced research, it lacks a financial strategy to strengthen the bloc’s technological and industrial capabilities.
This month’s guest
Tobias Gehrke, Senior Policy Fellow at the Global European Council on Foreign Relations.
Show notes
A maker, not a taker: Why Europe needs an economic security mechanism The power of control: How the EU can shape the new era of strategic export restrictions High-voltage trade: How Europe should fight the electric vehicle wars Missing money: Why Europe’s economic security requires a critical technology investment plan Strategy and risk: How to make the Green Deal Industrial Plan a geoeconomic success -
Despite Beijing’s attempts to influence the elections, Taiwan’s commitment to democracy has prevailed, and the people of Taiwan elected their new leader last week. William Lai, from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), emerged victorious in the recent presidential race. This result is likely to sustain the status quo in cross-strait relations, characterized by continued tensions and limited dialogue. Beijing’s reaction to the elections has been relatively muted compared to the massive incursions following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022. However, Nauru’s announcement to sever ties with Taiwan and establish relations with Beijing came as a surprise to many. Taiwan is grappling with diminishing international recognition, struggling to keep pace with China’s dollar diplomacy. The question now is whether Taiwan can offset these losses by expanding unofficial relations with like-minded countries.
This month’s guest
Michael Mazza, Senior Director at the Project 2049 Institute and Senior Non-resident Fellow at the Global Taiwan Institute.
Show notes
Taiwan keeps choosing democracy — and rejecting China The Axis of Disorder: How Russia, Iran, and China Want to Remake the World The Wrong Way to Lower Tensions in the Taiwan Strait -
The 2024 presidential election in Taiwan holds great significance as it will determine the future of Taiwan's relationship with China, the United States, and the rest of the world. Though the West often views Taiwan's elections through the lens of cross-strait relations and the risk of Beijing's invasion, most Taiwanese voters are more concerned with domestic issues such as housing policy, low wages, and energy security. The elections will also reflect how the Taiwanese people view their national identity and sovereignty. The three candidates have different strategies for dealing with the cross-strait issues and enhancing Taiwan's global presence. Contrary to previous elections, the results remain uncertain as the race is expected to be tight. One of the significant challenges facing Taiwan is the threat of disinformation and propaganda from China, which aims to sway public opinion and undermine democracy in Taiwan.
This month's guest
Marcin Jerzewski, Head of Taiwan Office of the European Values Center for Security Policy and Research Fellow at Taiwan NextGen Foundation.Show notes
Lithuania-Taiwan Relations: A Temperature Check Taiwan should support CEE ties Appreciating the Importance of Taiwan’s Parliamentary Diplomacy -
After the honeymoon period of Czech-China relations that started in 2013, the bilateral ties gradually soured. This shift was linked to the perceived lack of benefits stemming from economic cooperation and various security-related events that gave rise to skepticism regarding the profitability and viability of closer ties with China. The current government, sworn in 2021, has been cautious towards Beijing and has worked towards improvement of ties with Taiwan. In March this year, Speaker of the Parliament Markéta Pekarová Adamová led a strong delegation to Taipei, resulting in the signing of a number of business deals and establishing cooperation between academia, and even military, and security services. The new President Petr Pavel made news for speaking over the phone with Tsai Ying-wen, who called him in January to congratulate him on his election victory. Czechia thus established itself as one of Taiwan’s best friends within the EU.
This month's guest
Petr Kolář, Advisor to President Petr Pavel, Senior Advisor at Squire Patton Boggs Prague. -
In recent years, the US imposed a set of restrictions on exports of advanced semiconductors and chipmaking equipment to China. While China’s nanoelectronics sector has been cut off from access to leading technology necessary to produce cutting-edge chips competitively, side effect of the restrictions has been China‘s growing market share in mature nodes as it doubles down on self-reliance. In face of the global chip shortage and Europe’s struggles to keep pace with the global semiconductor industry, the bloc decided to boost its own domestic chip production through the EU Chips Act. The legislation aims to strengthen the EU’s supply chain resilience and reduce geopolitical risks linked to the growing US-China tensions. While experts diverge on the consequences of a potential Taiwan contingency on the semiconductor industry, the island’s visibility has significantly increased thanks to the issue.
This month's guest
Mathieu Duchâtel, Resident Senior Fellow and Director of International Studies at Institut Montaigne.Show notes
Semiconductors in Europe: The Return of Industrial Policy Tech Transfers: The Case for an EU-Japan-Us Cooperation Framework The Weak Links in China's Drive for Semiconductors Economic Security: the Missing Link in EU-Japan Cooperation -
In September parliamentary elections, pro-Russia leftist populist SMER-SD led by former PM Robert Fico secured victory, taking the lead over the liberal Western-oriented Progressive Slovakia (PS). SMER-SD managed to form a coalition with Peter Pellegrini's HLAS-SD, a social-democratic party that split from SMER-SD, and the Slovak National Party (SNS). During his time in opposition, Fico has undergone a radical transformation, emerging as a strong Eurosceptic and critic of the US. Many fear that Fico will shift the country’s foreign policy towards the East while aligning with Orbán on approach towards both Beijing and Moscow.
This month's guest
Nikoleta Nemečkayová, Analyst at the Association for International Affairs (AMO).Show notes
Setting on an East-Bound Course? Slovak Political Parties’ Views on China and Russia -
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has created a momentum for Georgia to become a major transit hub as both the EU and China are looking to diversify their trade routes away from Russia. Over the past decade, Tbilisi and Beijing have deepened their economic ties. At the end of July 2023, China and Georgia announced an upgrade in bilateral relations to a strategic partnership. While China is seeking to expand its presence in the South Caucusus, Tbilisi might be using the partnership with China to grant concessions from Brussels ahead of the EU's decision on the country's candidacy for membership.
This month's guest
Emil Avdaliani, Professor of International Relations at European University in Tbilisi.Show notes
New World Order and Small Regions: The Case of South Caucasus China, Russia and New Eurasian Order China Still Ambivalent About the Middle Corridor -
China’s tacit approval for the Russian invasion of Ukraine is significantly shaping both the Polish public opinion on China as well as the political and business elite's perception of China. Although views still diverge among different actors and political parties. Geopolitical shifts underway with the US and China also played a role in shaping Sino-Polish relations. Furthermore, the growing perception that NATO’s eastern flank as a theater of war and East Asian geopolitical theaters are merging constitutes a source of concern for Warsaw.
This month's guest
Alicja Bachulska, Research Fellow at CHOICE and Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.Show notes
Breaking the Mold: Poland Changes Course on China Policy Amid War in Ukraine The China-Russia Power Play China and Ukraine: The Chinese debate about Russia’s war and its meaning for the world Recent Polling Uncovers the Blind Spots in the European China Debate -
China is among the biggest global importers of all the Western Balkans extractive exports. China’s interest in the region's extractive and raw materials industries is related to its overall need for certain raw materials as they are crucial in supporting the country's manufacturing sector, fueling economic growth, and supporting technological advancements across various industries. While exports and investments in the extractive sector do help the local economies, the overreliance on extractive exports from polluting industries, which deplete natural resources and have a low value-added component in the bilateral trade relationship, is a reason for concern. Moreover, some Chinese projects seem to exploit structural weaknesses related to rule of law and good governance, as seen especially in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
This Month’s Guest
Ana Krstinovska, Research Fellow at CHOICE, President at ESTIMA.Show notes
“Win Some, Lose Some”: China’s Involvement in the Extractive and Raw Materials Industries in the Western Balkans -
China's special diplomatic mission is touring Kyiv, Warsaw, Paris, Berlin and Moscow in a stated mission to search for a political solution to the war in Ukraine. However, a number of Central and Eastern European leaders have expressed doubts about China's credibility as a peacemaker. This has been further exacerbated by the recent diplomatic scandal of Lu Shaye who questioned the sovereignty of former Soviet countries. Just a few days after the Chinese ambassador's controversial interview, Xi Jinping spoke with Volodymyr Zelenskyy for the first time since the beginning of the invasion. China’s position on the war in Ukraine as well as the Sino-Russian partnership has been under increased scrutiny and will remain the main factor shaping the relations between China and Europe.
This Month's Guest
Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova, Research Fellow at CHOICE, Head of the Political Science PhD programme and China Studies Centre at Riga Stradins University, Head of the Asia Programme at the Latvian Institute of International AffairsShow notes
Perfect Imbalance: China and Russia Backing Russia on Ukraine: China’s Messaging in Central and Eastern Europe Speaking Whose Mind? Why the Consequences of Lu Shaye’s Comments Go Beyond the Baltics “Depends on How You Look at It”: Russia Struggles to Explain Why “Power of Siberia 2” Is Still Not Happening -
Recently, Honduras broke diplomatic ties with Taiwan opening the door to establishing official diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China. Taiwan thus lost a ninth diplomatic ally since the current President, Tsai Ing-wen, came to power in 2016, leaving the island state with only 13 sovereign official partners. While Taiwan's international recognition is shrinking, its parliamentary diplomatic ties with like-minded partners are burgeoning. In March, Taiwan welcomed the largest-ever Czech delegation to the island led by the Czech Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies and US House Speaker McCarthy became the highest US official to meet with a Taiwanese leader on domestic soil since Washington established formal diplomatic ties with China in 1979. A new model for Taiwan's engagement with the world is thus in the shaping.
This Month's Guest
Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, Assistant Professor at the National Dong Hwa University in Hualien, Affiliated Scholar at the Department of Political Science of the Free University of Brussels, Head of the Associate Network at 9DASHLINE, Research Fellow at ISDP in Sweden and at Taiwan Next Gen Foundation in Taiwan.Show notes
Unpacking Beijing’s Narrative on Taiwan Taiwan in the European Discourse: Toward Political Consensus? Parliamentary Diplomacy to Boost the Resilience of EU-Taiwan Ties 'It is in the EU's own interest to contribute to Taiwan's democratic resilience' -
Building up on the previous parliamentary delegations to the island, speaker of Czech Parliament’s lower house, Markéta Adamová Pekarová, is arriving in Taiwan today. Despite protests from the Chinese embassy in Prague, she is heading the country’s largest-ever delegation to the island consisting of political representatives, entrepreneurs and scientists. While the visit has been planned for a long time, it comes soon after the election of the new president, Petr Pavel, who demonstrated his pro-Taiwan stance by his post-election call with the Taiwanese president. Czech-Taiwanese ties are thus in for a major political boost.
This Month's Guest
Alice Rezková a Research Fellow at the Association for International Affairs (AMO) and Executive Director of the Czech-Taiwanese Business ChamberShow notes
Bilateral Investment Agreement with Taiwan: Why should the Czech Republic say yes and support it at the EU level? -
After three years of self-imposed isolation, China has opened up to the world. Xi Jinping has come back to the diplomatic stage and we have seen a renewal of high-level visits. In recent weeks, Beijing has toned down its ‘wolf warrior diplomacy’ and Chinese officials have been trying to find ways to reinvigorate relations with Europe. However, experts have warned that China's charm offensive should not be mistaken for a fundamental reset in China's foreign policy. There remain numerous points of contention between China and Europe, most prominently Beijing's tacit support for Russia’s war on Ukraine. Eastern Europeans’ deepening ties with Taiwan are also likely to further complicate the relationship. China-EU ties in 2023 will thus be dominated by uncertainty and a risk of further deterioration.
This Month’s Guest:
Grzegorz Stec, Analyst, Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS)Show notes
What lies beneath – EU-China relations under Swedish presidency EU must beware Beijing's new charm offensive EU-China summits: From cooperation to damage control How China views the EU amid the Russia-Ukraine war: Contradictions of transatlantic relations and strategic autonomy -
China has positioned itself as a member of the Global South family and has poured billions of dollars into building infrastructure in Africa and Southeast Asia to increase its clout in these regions and popularize its authoritarian development model. China's ability to leverage its influence in the Global South has been reflected in the voting patterns of the developing countries in various multilateral bodies. The US and Europe are struggling to compete with China in the global connectivity and infrastructure race.
Joshua Eisenman, Associate Professor of politics, Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame and Fellow, Liu Institute for Asia and Asian Studies, Kellogg Institute for International Studies, and Pulte Institute for Global Development, Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre DameShow notes:
China’s geostrategic conception of the developing world Building a more “Democratic” and “Multipolar” World: China’s Strategic Engagement with Developing Countries Rising China’s Influence in Developing Asia -
In recent years, risks related to scientific collaboration with China have received more attention. There are growing fears over unwanted technology transfers, breaches of academic freedom, and concerns about ethical norms in research collaboration with China. However, research institutions and universities are often not well equipped to address these challenges. As a result, national governments have developed measures to safeguard their Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) sectors. Policymakers are in search of solutions that strike a balance between protecting academic freedom and tapping into opportunities of cooperating with Chinese partners while strengthening knowledge security.
This month’s guest:
Ingrid d'Hooghe, Senior Research Fellow and Coordinator of the Clingendael China Centre, Clingendael, and Senior Fellow, Leiden Asia Centre, the Netherlands.Show notes How National Governments and Research Institutions Safeguard Knowledge Development in Science and Technology Towards Sustainable Europe-China Collaboration in Higher Education in Research Implications for Japan and the United States China’s BRI and International Collaboration in Higher Education and Research. A symbiotic Relationship
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Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, many have tried to draw a parallel between Ukraine and Taiwan. While it is true that both countries are threatened by a great power in their immediate neighborhood, there are stark differences between their geographic positions as well as the larger geopolitical context. Despite significant differences between the two countries, there are a few lessons that can be learned from the conflict for the Taiwanese. Heightened tensions between China and Taiwan also have profound implications for Japan’s security environment and influence Sino-Japanese relations. Finally, the developments in the Taiwan Strait coupled with Sino-Russian partnership without limits also present an opportunity to explore new avenues for Japan-Europe security cooperation.
This month’s guest: Tetsuo Kotani, professor, Meikai University and senior fellow, Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA), JapanShow notes
China’s Military and Paramilitary Activities in the East China Sea China and Russia in the Western Pacific Implications for Japan and the United States Japan to Upgrade Defense Ties with Taipei by Dispatching a MOD Official The New Taiwan Clause: Taiwan and the Security of Japan - Montre plus