Episodes
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The podcast starts with a discussion on StoneCo $STNE, a Brazilian Fintech company that recently enjoyed a 40% gain in share price after releasing their earnings last week. Giro Lino, a member of our Brain Trust from Brazil, analyzes the Brazilian economy and provides outlooks into the risks and opportunities related to investing in the country.
Joe and Giro analyze how the increase in digitization globally may empower emerging markets as the cost of collaboration is coming down. Giro argues that Brazil’s economy is largely powered through commodity exports and that they are not yet a service-based economy. Joe believes that may change as virtual education continues to unlock the potential of the population in these emerging nations.
PJ from the WEquil Capital Brain Trust joins the conversation to discuss the ongoing conflict with Russia and Ukraine and the state of the New World Order. Joe assesses the worldwide response to the crisis and the pressure that the global hivemind has placed on Putin and Xi.
The episode ends with a discussion on US markets, and how to determine when there is a trend reversal and the index level. Joe argues that the breadth of impact of the Russia Ukraine crisis and associated supply chain disruptions has not been fully priced in by algorithms that drive much of the prices in markets. This may lead to further downside in the coming weeks.
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Recorded live on Clubhouse on February 14, 2022. We analyze the risks and opportunities with StoneCo $STNE, a stock that has been held by Warren Buffet, Stanley Druckenmiller and Cathie Wood. We also provide an outlook into the accelerating growth of emerging markets and how they are positioned to succeed in the new global, digital, personalized economy.
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Episodes manquant?
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Recorded Live on WEquil Capital's Clubhouse on March 15, 2022. Joe McPhail is joined by Brain Trust members, Rishi, Vishal and Junaid to discuss the Death Cross technical indicator and the ongoing correction in equities. They discuss the explanatory power of the Death Cross indicator and its usefulness in predicting previous bear markets. We then discuss the weakness in credit markets and analyze the tools and strategies available to the Fed.
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Recorded live on WEquil Capital's Clubhouse on March 7th, 2022. Bonds have been in a bull market for 42 years... but Joe McPhail sees the bull market coming to an end. Junaid Ackroyd, Mark Jarvis and Tserundede Ejueyitchie join in to discuss the clues that are being provided in the market, and the implications that a breaking bond market will have on other asset classes.
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Recorded live on WEquil Capital's Clubhouse on March 6th, 2022. Joe McPhail and Junaid Ackroyd discuss the impact that the ongoing crisis in Ukraine is having on global financial markets, across various asset classes.
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Recorded live on WEquil Capital's Clubhouse March 6th, 2022. Joe McPhail and Eugene Yankovsky discuss the crisis in Ukraine, and the ways that people can provide help most effectively.
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Recorded live on WEquil Capital's Clubhouse on February 28th, 2022. The team at WEquil Capital sees two main forces driving markets - inflation and innovation. Joe McPhail, Sumay Lu, Rishi Daryanani and Junaid Ackroyd discuss the biggest risks and opportunities to markets given these two major forces.
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Recorded live on WEquil Capital's Clubhouse on February 27th, 2022. Featuring Joe McPhail, Sumay Lu and Junaid Ackroyd.
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Recorded live on WEquil Capital Clubhouse on February 26th, 2022. Joe McPhail provides new investors with guidance on how to begin learning about investing in a way that will actually help them improve their understanding of value creation systems.
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Recorded live on WEquil Capital's Clubhouse on February 25th, 2022. Featuring Joe McPhail, Eugene Yankovsky and Junaid Ackroyd.
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Stocks generally perform better than cash in inflationary environments.FAANGs in the global economy.Brightest minds and innovation. The global talent pool. Learning from leading minds.
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What is wrong with CFA + FRM programs.New investment opportunities are always popping up. NFTs and community. Building versus investing in this environment. Community is the new product.Communities as an asset class.
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Bridgewater expects 4% nominal returns over the next decade. Finding opportunities in the current market. Event-driven strategies. What algorithms don't price into their models. Supply chain disruptions and rising protests.Investors are getting nervous.
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How yields affect risk assets. The Bitcoin Trade in 2017Emerging Markets have been ignored for years. Emerging Markets will attract more liquidity as they become easier to buy.
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The break in the S&P 500 after the strongest bull run in history. High valuations and the reach for yield.Economic growth is not pushing yields this time. QE and Inflation.Zombie companies and the inability to refinance. Tipping point for junk bonds is now. Algo Efficient Markets are slowly driving down credit markets. Junk bonds and leveraged loans are in trouble.
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After reviewing sentiment and valuations pertaining to $ARKK's growth stocks our Brain Trust suggests that these asset classes may have reached a bottom.
The team also goes more in-depth and explores the many styles in which one can approach investing into different asset classes. For example, the Algo Efficient Market Hypothesis is useful for determining mispricings in securities because Machine Learning Models are unable to fully appreciate the value of companies that are developing new technologies like $NVTA. Gauging sentiment is also an important factor when it comes to determining shorter-term price movements.
Many companies with lots of growth potential oftentimes may not have these realities reflected in their balance sheets, so investors need to look at other factors to find deep value, and also make sure to be fully diversified when creating their portfolio.
Nothing that we say or write should be interpreted as investing advice. Please do your own due diligence.
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Deep Learning with the Brain Trust (DLBT) Episode 3.
Recorded during the WEquil Capital Happy Hour on February 10th, 2022.
The Brain Trust explores the nuances and risks of options trading and how investors can select the appropriate strike prices, expiration dates for options within the context of their portfolios. WEquil Capital's Portfolio Manager, Joe McPhail, stresses the importance of selecting a basket of securities for an effective shorting strategy, and discusses how he identified asymmetric trade opportunities through shorting specific securities tied to bonds such as $JNK and $BKLN. We also discuss where the market is mis-pricing potential catastrophic risks relating to the start of a Fourth Turning.
Nothing that we say or write should be interpreted as investing advice. Please do your own due diligence.
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Deep Learning with the Brain Trust (DLBT) Episode 2.
Recorded during the WEquil Capital Happy Hour on February 10th, 2022.
This episode starts with a discussion on the potential of a recession in 2022 and the macroeconomic risks in the United States such as inflation and a breakdown of the correlation regime. The Brain Trust analyzes why there is no single strategy that one can use to succeed at investing. We also explore ways to achieve True Diversification across asset classes, currencies and global markets and why target retirement funds don't provide sufficient diversification benefits.
Nothing that we say or write should be interpreted as investing advice. Please do your own due diligence.
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Deep Learning with the Brain Trust (DLBT) Episode 1.
Recorded during the WEquil Capital Happy Hour on February 10th, 2022.
This episode provides insights into the limitations of many new investors that entered the markets since the COVID19 pandemic and the value of understanding what goes into security pricing models. We provide suggestions on how investors can grow by writing and applying the scientific method to measure their progress.
Nothing that we say or write should be interpreted as investing advice. Please do your own due diligence.
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Originally aired on 1/18/2022.
Joe McPhail discusses his journey that led him to dive deeply into inflation research back in 2015, at the beginning of the earnings recession. The aftermath of this event led many countries in Europe to adopt negative interest rate policies. This sent shockwaves to many economists - how could governments get paid to borrow money?
McPhail was fascinated by this situation and went down a rabbit hole where he spent tremendous amounts of time reading and writing to get answers. This livestream goes over many of the insights from his research and how they apply to our economy today.
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