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In this episode, Scott interviews Tim Mak, an American journalist living in Ukraine, about the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Tim runs a publication called The Counter Offensive, which focuses on telling the stories of the Russian invasion in Ukraine through human interest stories. They discuss various topics including the state of the conflict, the role of the international community, the impact on the Ukrainian people, and the long-term effects of the war.
The Counter Offensive: https://www.counteroffensive.news/
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Guest David Kilcullen. The conversation explores the reasons behind America's failure in Afghanistan and the consequences of the Taliban retaking Kabul. It delves into the concept of counterinsurgency and its application in different contexts. The discussion highlights the mistakes made in Afghanistan, such as the failure to negotiate a peace settlement with the Taliban, the expansion of ISAF without understanding the local dynamics, and the attempt to replicate the surge strategy from Iraq. The disconnect between military leaders and civilian decision-makers, as well as the lack of accountability, are also discussed. The conversation with Dave Kilcullen explores the failures and lessons learned from the war in Afghanistan. Kilcullen highlights the lack of accountability within the institution and the inability to adapt to changing environments. He emphasizes the importance of a fighting force that can critique conventional wisdom and adapt when necessary. The collapse of the Afghan government and military is attributed to a focus on central government institutions rather than local governance systems. The relationship with Pakistan is discussed, with Kilcullen noting their fear of strategic encirclement and their desire to keep Afghanistan weak. He also emphasizes the need for better civilian-military coordination, political engagement, and a willingness to learn from past mistakes in future conflicts.
Counterinsurgency by David Kilcullen
The Ledger: Accounting for Failure in Afghanistan by David Kilcullen and Greg Mills
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The conversation explores the concept of readiness in the military and the challenges of balancing people-first initiatives with the pursuit of readiness. It delves into the definition of readiness and its various components, such as individual and unit training, equipment functionality, and supply. The conversation also discusses the Army's training cycle and the role of CTC rotations in preparing units for deployment. The impact of funding on readiness is explored, particularly in relation to personnel shortages and the need for modernization. The conversation concludes with a discussion on the tension between taking care of soldiers and maintaining readiness, highlighting the trade-offs between quality of life issues and training priorities. The conversation explores the challenges of balancing training and readiness with the well-being of soldiers and their families. It highlights the need for predictability and stability in training schedules to support soldiers and their families. The conversation also discusses the loss of training management mastery in the Army's officer corps and the focus on immediate results rather than long-term readiness. The impact of toxic leadership and the officer career track on training cycles and decision-making is also examined. The conversation concludes with a call for a better balance between training and soldier well-being, as well as the need for metrics that measure morale and command culture.
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In this episode Scott interviews Leo Blanken (PhD), an associate professor of defense analysis at the Naval Postgraduate School, about innovation as a tool of national security. They discuss the need for innovation in the rapidly changing strategic and technological landscape, the challenges faced by the US military in adapting to these changes, and the importance of a comprehensive national security strategy. They also explore the role of the defense industrial base and the relationship between the government and the private sector in fostering innovation. Dr. Blanken emphasizes the need for the military to slow down and be more thoughtful in its approach to innovation, focusing on purpose and capability rather than just grabbing technology for its own sake. The conversation highlights the importance of culture and incentives in driving innovation and transformation in the United States. It emphasizes the need for the military to leverage education opportunities as a way to foster mid-range innovation and develop strategic assets. The discussion also touches on the challenges of partnering with foreign forces and the need to understand their specific needs and priorities. The conversation concludes by addressing the issue of sacred cows in the defense budget and the importance of having tough conversations to drive innovation and question traditional approaches.
Leo Blanken (PhD) website: https://faculty.nps.edu/ljblanke/
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The conversation explores the competition and strategic implications of space exploration and activities between states. It discusses the role of the US Space Force, the reasons for the increasing focus on space as a domain of competition, and the activities of geopolitical rivals such as China and Russia. The conversation also delves into the concept of irregular warfare in space and the potential impact of privatization on space activities. Overall, the discussion highlights the need for strategic thinking and cooperation in the space domain.
Takeaways
Space has become a new domain of competition between states, driven by advancements in technology, increased access to space, and the pursuit of national security interests.The US Space Force is a military organization focused on protecting national security interests in space and supporting joint operations.Geopolitical rivals such as China and Russia have their own space programs and objectives, which may differ from those of the United States and its allies.Space activities can be categorized as regular warfare or irregular warfare, with the latter involving actions below the threshold of armed conflict.The privatization of space activities offers opportunities for innovation and cost-effectiveness, but there is a need to balance commercial involvement with the inherent responsibilities of the government.Link to Buy "Fight for the Final Frontier: Irregular Warfare in Space" https://a.co/d/jgiT0Ce
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Liza Tobin, Senior Director of the Economy Team at the Special Competitive Studies Project, discusses China's systemic rivalry with the United States and the need for a strong American industrial policy. She explains why China is the main geopolitical rival and outlines its goals for global dominance. Tobin also highlights the challenges the US faces in competing with China's brute force economics and the need for a coherent counter strategy. She emphasizes the importance of investing in the basic building blocks of AI leadership and the role of the US government in buying down risk and enabling companies to scale up. The conversation explores the role of government funding in research and development (R&D) and the challenges of relying on the private sector for critical national needs. It highlights the risks of dependency on China for critical infrastructure and the importance of investing in national objectives. The discussion concludes with a call to rebuild industrial capacity and an invitation to the AI Expo
Link to AI Expo: https://expo.scsp.ai/about/
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With death tolls rising on all sides, Israel's military operation in Gaza to rescue it's hostages and root out the Hamas terrorists that attacked it on October 7th continues to grind on. As imagines of Palestinian suffering reach audiences around the globe, South Africa has brought charges of genocide against Israel, claiming that the suffering of Palestinians isn't a tragic but inevitable result of Israel exercising its right to self defense, but instead a deliberate plan to destroy them as a nation.
To unpack this, Francis Boyle (PhD) and Professor Amichai Cohen share their insights on the merits of South Africa's case, the role of the International Court of Justice, and how this case and recent rulings by the court will impact events moving forward.
Francis Boyle (PhD): https://law.illinois.edu/faculty-research/faculty-profiles/francis-boyle/
Professor Amichai Cohen: https://en.idi.org.il/experts/1491
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Scott and Jahara 'FRANKY' Matisek discuss the misconceptions surrounding US military assistance and coups in Africa. They explore the goals of US security assistance in Africa and the challenges of promoting democracy through this assistance. They also delve into the need for a whole-of-government approach and the importance of staffing embassies and addressing economic development. The conversation concludes with a discussion on the Lobito Corridor as a development project aimed at countering China's Belt and Road Initiative in Africa. The conversation explores the geopolitical significance of the Libido Corridor, a transportation project in Africa that aims to counter China's Belt and Road Initiative. It discusses the importance of the corridor in securing rare earths and minerals in the Congo and its potential benefits for African countries. The conversation then shifts to the idea of building Army Corps of Engineers in African countries to facilitate development and foster positive civil-military relations. It also highlights the advocacy for a peace engineering corps in every African military. The conversation concludes with a discussion on the challenges and depressing realities in Africa, including the rise of insurgency, terrorism, and declining democracies.
original article: https://irregularwarfare.org/articles/to-coup-or-not-to-coup-the-cold-war-hangover-of-us-security-assistance/
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Sean O'Keefe's wide ranging career in government stretched from being the staff director for the Senate appropriations committee, chief financial officer for the Department of Defense, Secretary of the Navy, and leading NASA. He shares his views on globalization, America's role in the world, the difficulties in creating an effective industrial policy to support America's national security, and how states need to cooperate in Space.
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Ethan Brown is an Airforce Special Operations veteran who is currently a Senior Fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. He wrote an article that deep dived the impact of 20 years of the Global War on Terror has had on how the American public sees the military and impacts recruiting.
Link to article: https://mwi.westpoint.edu/the-ghost-of-gwot-haunting-the-military-recruiting-crisis/
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Retired Army Special Forces two-star general Kurt Sonntag discusses the transition of special operations from counterterrorism to great power competition. He shares his experience leading the Combined Joint Task Force - Horn of Africa and highlights the challenges of coordinating efforts with partner nations and interagency organizations. MG Sonntag also discusses the activities of great power actors in the region, including Iran, Russia, Turkey, and China. He emphasizes the importance of campaign planning and the need for better coordination between intelligence and special operations. MG Sonntag concludes by addressing the impact of billet cuts on special operations. In this conversation, MG Sonntag discusses the challenges in manning Special Forces and the need to maintain the proper force structure. He highlights the reduced manning strength of ODAs (Operational Detachment-Alpha) during the early stages of the war on 9/11 and the impact it had on their capabilities. MG Sonntag emphasizes the importance of maintaining the base organization of 10 to 12 members per ODA and the risks associated with deploying smaller teams. He also discusses his role in restructuring the Special Forces Qualification Course (Q Course) to address attrition rates and training inefficiencies.
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America is struggling to produce enough ammunition and other hardware to support our allies in a time of need, which has exposed deep cracks in our defense industrial base. Matt Stoller looked at how a series of consolidations among America's defense contractors has increased the costs while reducing the output of military equipment, and how there is no incentive among private industry to address the issue. Link to his article here: https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/why-america-is-out-of-ammunition
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In this conversation, Judge Baker discusses the sources of sovereignty and legitimacy in international law, the role of law in security beyond war crimes, and the challenges and importance of working with lawyers in the military. He also explores the two great legal challenges of our time: Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine and the rise of authoritarianism. Judge Baker explains the three purposes of law: authority, process, and values, and discusses the sources of international law, including treaties and customary law. He emphasizes the importance of supporting Ukraine and the rule of law, despite the practical limitations and potential risks involved. The conversation covers various topics related to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, including the question of escalation, increasing support to Ukraine, hesitation in providing support, concerns about the misuse of American weapons, security assurances, and NATO membership. It also discusses the Ring Around Russia initiative, which aims to promote the importance of national security law in the frontline states.
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Check out Jon's book here: https://www.wireless-wars.com/
The conversation explores the competition between the US and China in the development and implementation of 5G technology. It highlights the importance of 5G in various sectors and the risks associated with relying on Chinese companies like Huawei. The conversation delves into China's approach to business relationships, including intellectual property theft. It also discusses the need for OpenRAN architecture as a solution to counter China's dominance in the telecom industry. The conversation concludes by emphasizing the challenges and importance of economic decoupling from China and the need for trust-based ecosystems. The conversation explores the challenges and potential of Open RAN, a new approach to building telecom networks. It discusses the need for established companies like Nokia and Ericsson to shift to Open RAN and the difficulties they may face. The role of engineers in designing complicated networks is highlighted, as well as the lack of expertise within carriers. The business incentives for vendors to adopt Open RAN are examined, along with the complexity of spectrum allocation. The conversation concludes by emphasizing the ongoing nature of the Open RAN story and its geopolitical significance.
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This episode explores the arguments for and against supporting the current rules-based international order and promoting freedom and democracy as a consistent American foreign policy principle. It discusses the historical context of the post-World War II era, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the questioning of America's role in the world. The episode examines the effectiveness of the current international order, highlighting the decrease in global violence and poverty. It delves into the democratic peace theory and the theory of capitalist peace, along with their criticisms and limitations. The episode emphasizes the need for cautious and nuanced foreign policy decisions and the responsibility of citizens to hold leaders accountable.
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Bob Curris served over 30 years in the military and led Psychological Operations teams around the world. He's concerned the Army is making cuts that will degrade America's ability to conduct information and influence operations as the need to compete in the information space is only increasing with the shift from the GWOT era to the era of Great Power Competition. Link to his original Military Times article here: https://www.militarytimes.com/opinion/2023/11/01/the-army-needs-to-invest-in-psychological-operations-not-cut-them/
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Discussion with Josh Paul on his decision to resign from the State Department over concerns with the Biden administration's Israel policy, the role of arms transfers in U.S. foreign policy, and the role America plays in the world.
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Will the BRICS nations end the reign of the U.S. Dollar as the world's dominant currency, threatening America's prosperity and security? On paper, they could, but things get real messy real quick after that. The devil is always in the details.
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As Israel prepares to invade Gaza and destroy Hamas, what challenges will it face and where can it all go wrong? We discuss the military, political, and economic implications of the ground assault and what lessons Israel should take from America's own experience fighting terrorists hiding among civilians in cities.
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