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When it comes to credit, few people have better credentials than Greg Peters, co-CIO of PGIM, with AUM of $700bn. In this fascinating conversation, we discuss the differences between investing in equities and credit, the legacy of the zero interest rate period, why PGIM uses scenario based forecasting in preference to single point estimates, why covenants have gone out of fashion and why that’s dangerous, ad much more. Listen to the end for an update on the outlook for markets in 2025.
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Anthony Bolton is best known for Fidelity Special Situationsfund’s 19.5% pa returns, 6% above his benchmark, over a 28 year period. He was not only a highly accomplished investor but was both revered and liked by his colleagues. Pragmatic, unfailingly courteous, courageous, and universally popular, he exhibits none of the arrogance that is sometimes exhibited by successful investors with far inferior performance.
In a first for this podcast, this interview was recorded live at the Library of Mistakes in Edinburgh on November 21, 2024, in front of an audience of investors, professional and amateur.
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Lionel Barber is the former editor of the Financial Times
and probably the only journalist on the planet to have interviewed Presidents Obama, Trump and Putin. Under his stewardship, the FT metamorphosed from a newspaper into a digital subscription business, and was sold to the Japanese company Nikkei for 44x
earnings. And as editor, Barber fully backed up former guest Dan McCrum in his investigation of Wirecard.
I was delighted when Lionel agreed to come on the show to talk about his new book, Gambling Man, a biography of Masa Son, founder of Softbank and creator of the $100bn Vision Fund. I have long been curious about Son, who for 3 days at the peak of the dot.com boom was the richest man in the world.
Barber spent 3 years writing his meticulously researched
book for which he interviewed 150 subjects, including Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, as he explains in our discussion. Some of his stories, including his description of Son’s inner sanctum, are marvellous.
If you enjoy this episode, head over to our Substack, (sign up button on https://behindthebalancesheet.com/), take the monthly paid option and get exclusive additional content, including Steve's interview with Alok Sama, former CFO of Softbank International. -
Bill Nygren has been at Harris Associates for over 40 years and considers himself a value investor. Yet his portfolio has owned Netflix, Amazon and Meta recently, while Alphabet is his largest position. Bill explains his unusual but highly effective approach to value investing.
Harris has also constructed a unique organisational methodology to handle investing mistakes – I have never encountered a process in which the analyst is changed when the stock doesn’t go to plan. Bill explains why and other techniques in this fascinating discussion. Steve was so looking forward to this conversation and Bill didn’t disappoint.
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Peter Oppenheimer is chief global equity strategist and head of Macro Research at Goldman Sachs in Europe and the author of two books on market cycles.
His first book, the Long Good Buy is sub-titled Analysing Cycles in Markets. His follow-up book Any Happy Returns, is sub-titled Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets and looks at longer term secular trends and the future outlook for economies and markets. Our discussion covers both.
Our episode title refers to Peter’s study of cycles inmarkets, but amusingly for a partner at Goldman Sachs, he arrived for our recording on a bike, not their usual mode of transport.
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John Armitage is a giant in the hedge fund world and in the world of investing more broadly. His firm, Egerton Capital, celebrates its 30th anniversary this year. Inthis conversation, John explains how he started with $10m, and why you couldn’t do that today. He touches on his portfolio, talks about his approach to investing, explaining why he requires his analysts to follow more than one sector, and why he doesn’t employ data scientists. We discuss Elon Musk, AI, and geopolitics and John gives advice to a young person contemplating a career choice.
And Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, the largest single equity owner in the world, explains why John is so highly regarded by his peers.
John is our first podcast guest to return for a second episode.
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John Huber is an investor with a small fund managing his family assets and outside capital in a concentrated portfolio.
John has written an excellent blog, Base Hit Investing, for many years, explaining his investing principles.
We discuss these in this episode, including what John looks for in an investment, why he emphasises capital allocation even more today, where he sees the sweet spot in revenue growth, why he likes Alphabet, why he is focused in North American stocks but is now looking at Japan and US small caps and why Floor & Décor is one of his major positions.
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Carine Smith Ihenacho is Chief Governance and Compliance Officer at Norges Bank Investment Management, the Norwegian wealth fund. It’s the largest single equity owner in the world and sets out to be the most transparent. She is therefore likely the most powerful person in the world of ESG.
In our podcast episode, Huw van Steenis and I discussed:
How you can combine sustainability with thepursuit of returns The difference between the US and Europe when itcomes to the energy transition How the fund takes action to divest and excludecompanies on climate, enviromental and even tax grounds How NBIM conduct their reviews Issues with ESG ratings and how they can beimproved Why companies pushing back targets paradoxicallymay be a sign of progressCarine is uniquely placed to comment on theenergy transition and all things relating to governance and this was a fascinating conversation.
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Chris Mayer is the founder of Woodlock House Family Capital and the author of 100 Baggers: Stocks that Return 100-to-1 and How to Find Them. He has written several other books and formerly wrote an investingnewsletter which led him to travel the world seeking investment ideas.
Studying the universe of 100 Baggers has led Chris to a clear set of investing principles which mean his universe of investible ideas is extremely limited and his fund owns just 11 stocks.
Our discussion covers his respect for family owned businesses, his emphasis on corporate culture and his focus on the very long term. He even rejected aninstitutional investor as a client because they wanted monthly performance.
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Lawrence Cunningham is the author of 20 books; an academic with over 60 publications; a legal expert; an accounting expert; a governance expert; a director on 3 quoted company boards; and a company adviser.
His most famous book is the Essays of Warren Buffett in which he extracts sections from the sage’s letters over decades and orders them by subject. In our conversation, he tells how he first met Mr Buffett, how the books came about, how he sends Mr Buffett a draft of each publication, and explains how and why the letters are so carefully crafted.
Few have studied Berkshire andparticularly the letters as closely and he has some fascinating perspectives.
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Peter Cowley is a successful angel investor. But it was histragic private life which prompted this interview. Two of his three children lost to suicide; their mother died unexpectedly; his sister lost to alcoholism; his brother died aged 21 from cancer; two decades in recovery from alcoholism; and he has now been diagnosedwith terminal Stage 4c cancer and statistically has 9 months to live.
In this interview, Peter calls himself fortunate. Sincemeeting Peter, not a day has passed that Steve has not thought about this remarkable man and day felt grateful for his lot. Hopefully the podcast will also make people aware of how common suicide is among young men.
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Steve Clapham and climate finance expert Huw van Steenis talk to Barry Norris, climate sceptic and founder and CIO of Argonaut Capital.
Barry explains why he believes the economics of offshore wind are unsound. He likens wind and solar to unreliable
workers and thinks nuclear and fossil fuel generation are the reliable workers. You can't have a factory staffed only by unreliable workers he argues.
Barry has made good money out of shorting Orsted, the Danish offshore wind company which fell 60% from the peak. Barry explains why he thinks there may be more to go.
We think you will find some of his arguments compelling and encourage you to read the shownotes and the newsletter accompanying the podcast to learn more. -
Jonathan Ruffer is the founder of the eponymous assetmanagement firm, a bold and successful investor (a combination unusual to survive, let alone thrive) and considers himself a financial historian. He remains the figurehead of the firm although has stepped back somewhat from the daily combat with markets. In this episode, he explains why he thinks the Yen could double, why the equities age is behind us, why inflation is here to stayand much more. And in a first for this podcast, Jonathan turns the tables and asks me the most difficult interview question of all time.
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Emmanuel Lagarrigue is the Co-Head of Climate at KKR and in this fascinating discussion, he explains why he joined the firm and what they are seeking to achieve in financing the energy transition. He explains how KKR sees a gap in the huge $7tn pa investment needed to fund the transition between the early stage investments and the mature infrastructure-like renewables area.This middle area is not really served today and he explains where they see the greatest investment opportunities, why decarbonisation is a good business, and why he is not concerned about political risk. This is a fascinating glimpse into the future and how climate change can be funded.Thanks to co-host climate finance expert Huw van Steenis.
Show notes
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Explaining what to expect from a new series of podcasts focusing on the investment opportunities (and risks) in the energy transition. With co-host, climate finance expert Huw van Steenis.
Sign up for the newsletter.
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Bill Browder is a human rights activist who championed the Magnitsky Act, signed into law by President Obama. It not only sanctions Russians, but others around the world. Similar legislation is now in place in over 30 countries. He is also a bestselling author and former hedge fund manager.
In this episode, we talk about his career, about how he coped with a 90% fall in the value of his fund, about how he subsequently engineered a 37x recovery for the portfolio, about his deportation from Russia and how he subsequently secretly cashed in the gains and returned the cash to investors.
And of course we talk about the events that led up to the tragic death of his lawyer and friend Sergei Magnitsky.
Warning: Listeners may find some of this discussion upsetting.
Disclaimer: Bill's views are his own and do not reflect the views of this podcast.
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Grant Williams is a former hedge fund manager who nowpublishes the monthly newsletter Things that Make You Go Hmmm and a subscription-only investing podcast channel that incredibly is one of the top 0.5% of all podcasts globally.
In this fascinating discussion, Grant explains his fascination for Japan and why we should all pay attention. We discuss US Treasuries, and why there is a risk that the current glut of supply could meet a dearth of buyers. And of course we talk about gold as well as how Grant has built a financial media empire.
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James Aitken is an expert in the plumbing of the financial system. We go on a world tour of the hotspots in global finance. You will learn why James is relaxed about the US; why the Japanese government will Make Japan Great Again and why this could have serious repercussions for global bond markets; and why China will likely muddle through, in spite of massive problems in its property sector.
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Sebastian Lyon is a conservative investor who manages two highly successful multi asset funds. His motto is simple over complex and he is intent on protecting the downside. In this interview, we discuss his views on markets (spoiler: not super bullish); how he built Troy into a significant asset management business from scratch; how he has managed his fund to deliver only 3 down years in 20 and create outstanding performance as a consequence; what he looks for in stocks; why he invests only in quality companies; and why he owns gold.
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Bill Smead has been in the investing business for over 40 years and has seen multiple cycles. He has an idiosyncratic investing philosophy which seeks to buy high quality stocks when they are out of favour.
He has a concentrated portfolio of 26 stocks with 45-50% in the top 10 positions. Yet his holding period averages over 6 years. He explains why he thinks the stock market is going down over the next decade and offers his views on the stocks that will deliver great returns, focusing on demographics and out of favour sectors.
And he explains how to handicap a greyhound!
Show Notes
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