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Antipodes Investment Director, Alison Savas speaks to Nick Nelson (ASR Head of Global Equity Strategy) about the investment implications of the 2024 United States Presidential Election.
Key Times:
The Trump vs Harris Debate - thoughts and observations: 1:00The battleground states: 2:00The composition of Congress - a clean sweep or not? 4:00Key policy areas relevant for stock market investors (taxation, climate, trade, immigration): 7:00Will Trump repeal the Inflation Reduction Act? 10:00Why Trump's big tariff plans could only be a threat: 12:40How will investment markets react to a Trump or Harris win: 18:00Foreign policy & implications on Europe: 20:50Episode summary: 22:00More about Antipodes Partners: https://antipodes.com/
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Alison Savas is joined by Ian Harnett, the co-founder and chief investment strategist of Absolute Strategy Research.
Ian shares big picture macroeconomic perspectives and views on the state of global stock markets.
This is part 1 of a 2-part interview.
Key Times:
What Fed Governors are thinking right now: 1:40US macro + takes on recent economic data: 5:00Is the good news all priced in? 10:00Narrow earnings growth in the US: 14:00Growth outside the US: 16:00The energy capex cycle: 27:00AI: 30:45Overweighting the USD: 36:00Ian's rate cut call: 45:00 -
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Over the last year, financials globally have had a pretty good run as profit margins for lending have grown. We’ve seen this trend in the big banks in the US, but also in Europe where dividends and buybacks are trending higher and higher.
But what if the next move for policy rates is down? Should investors stick with banks?
Antipodes Portfolio Manager James Rodda and Alison Savas discuss the set-up for financials in the US, Europe and also Australia, and compare the investment cases for three of the major banks in these markets.
Key times:
What would rate cuts mean for banks: 3:00The outlook for Australian banks: 10:30NatWest Group: 11:20 Wells Fargo & Co: 17:17Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA): 20:30Comparing Natwest, Wells Fargo & CBA: 25:20All stock commentary is illustrative only and not recommendations to buy, hold, or sell any security.
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Regulatory and economic fear has gripped Chinese stock markets in recent years – most notably headlined by troubles in China’s property sector and the collapse of China Evergrande.
But there are signs the very negative sentiment surrounding Chinese stocks is turning. Antipodes Portfolio Manager John Stavliotis discusses some surprising observations from a recent research trip to China, along with Antipodes' exposure to the world's second-largest economy.
Key times:
Surprising observations and key takeaways from a China research trip: 00:50China's property sector woes: 3:20Time for exposure to China's property sector? (Ke Holdings Inc) 10:30 Investing in China's 'emerging multinationals'(Kingdee International Software Group Co) 13:20The investment opportunity in China's power grid (NARI Technology Co Ltd) 19:30Key takeouts - can Chinese stocks thrive again? 31:00Stock commentary in this episode is illustrative only, not recommendations to buy, hold, or sell any security.
More about Antipodes: antipodes.com
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In this episode Alison Savas is joined by Antipodes Portfolio Manager, Graham Hay.
They discuss two key stock market sectors – tech and commodities – as the market starts to tilt towards the higher for longer interest rate scenario.
Key times:
The US economy has been incredibly resilient - can it keep powering ahead? 1:00Meaningful moves in tech stocks: 5:00Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA): 6:30Tech opportunities in the current market cycle: 11:00TSMC (NYSE:TSM): 11:30Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM): 13:30Commodities performance and outlook: 14:50Teck Resources (NYSE:TECK): 20:00Stock commentary in this episode is illustrative only and should not be considered as recommendations to buy, hold, or sell any security.
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Alison Savas is joined by Martin Daum, the CEO of Daimler Truck Holding AG.
The German-listed company is the world's largest manufacturer of commercial vehicles. It builds trucks, buses, and other commercial vehicles under brands including Mercedes Benz, Freightliner, Western Star, Mitsubishi Fuso, Bharat Benz, Rizon, and Setra.
More about Antipodes: https://antipodes.com/
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Link to the previous EVs episode from 2021 referenced in this podcast: https://www.podbean.com/eas/pb-gy3zp-ff1e7e
More about Antipodes: https://antipodes.com/
Key times:
Shifting dynamics in the auto industry over the past 3 years: 1:00EV demand now below previous market expectations? 3:20The rise of Chinese automakers: 9:30 Are hybrid electric vehicles here to stay? 19:00Solid state batteries & autonomous vehicles: 22:30Who will be the long term winners and losers in the global auto industry? 29:30*Stock commentary in this episode is illustrative only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security.
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In this episode, Alison Savas is joined by Antipodes Chief Investment Officer, Jacob Mitchell.
They discuss key macro and market developments in the fourth quarter of 2023 along with how Antipodes is positioning for the year ahead. Jacob and Alison also provide key insights into the investment case for Oracle Corp (NYSE: ORCL).
Key times:
Has the Fed pulled off a soft landing? 1:00The potential for a deterioration in liquidity & headwinds for US equities at the index level: 6:00Antipodes current portfolio positioning: 12:00 Valuation discipline case study - exiting SAP & holding Oracle*: 16:00Stock in focus - Oracle Corp (NYSE: ORCL)*: 20:00*Stock commentary is illustrative only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security.
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In this final episode for 2023, Alison Savas is joined by all Antipodes' Sector Portfolio Managers. Each PM shares one stock (or area of their coverage) they believe will perform in the year ahead, and one stock or part of the market they believe investors should avoid.
1:30: Graham Hay - Hardware, Industrials & Commodities Portfolio Manager.
Stock to watch: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TPE: 2330)6:20: Nick Cameron - Healthcare Portfolio Manager
Sector to watch: Small to mid-cap medical device companiesStock to watch: Alcon AG (SWX: ALC)15:00: Max Shramchenko - Infrastructure Portfolio Manager
Sector to watch: Regulated utilitiesStock to watch: American Electric Power Company (NASDAQ: AEP)21:30: James Rodda - Developed Markets, Technology, Media and Telecommunications Portfolio Manager
Stock to watch: Oracle Corp (NYSE: ORCL)27:00: John Stavliotis - Emerging Markets Portfolio Manager
Sector to watch: Brazilian stocksStock to watch: Sendas Distribuidora SA (NYSE: ASAI) -
The backdrop for investing in Brazil is changing - fundamentals are improving, inflation is falling, rates are falling and policy makers are embarking on fiscal repair.
On top of this stock market valuations are attractive.
So, in this episode, Alison Savas (Antipodes Investment Director) and John Stavliotis (Antipodes Emerging Markets PM) discuss the case for increasing exposure to Brazilian equities.
Key times:
Elevator pitch - why investors should consider Brazil: 1:00Inflation, rate cuts and Brazil's cyclical setting : 2:20Structural opportunities in Brazil - commodities and agriculture: 7:30 Brazil's economic links with China: 11:30Brazilian politics and regulation: 13:30Stock in focus - Itaú Unibanco (NYSE: ITUB)* 16:30Stock in focus - Nu Holdings (NYSE: NU)*: 21:00Stock in focus - Sendas Distribuidora (NYSE: ASAI)*: 22:30*Stock commentary is illustrative only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security.
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Along with a discussion about the state of the markets in Q3 2023 and Antipodes' current portfolio positioning, this episode covers the recent developments in the global oil market amid the escalation of conflict between Israel and Hamas.
Alison Savas (Antipodes Investment Director) is joined by Graham Hay (Antipodes Portfolio Manager Industrial, Hardware & Commodities) for this episode.
Key times:
Current oil market dynamics & the implications of lower capital expenditure in recent years: 1:00How Iran could hold the world's oil market to ransom if the Israel - Hamas conflict widens: 3:40Why US sanctions on Russian crude are ultimately ineffective: 5:30 How Saudi Arabia could respond to an oil supply shortfall: 7:15The Chinese oil demand puzzle: 10:10Antipodes' view on the outlook for the crude oil price: 13:30Antipodes' energy exposures (TotalEnergies & Occidental Petroleum)*: 15:00PART 2
The state of the markets in Q3 2023: 18:00Why it's unlikely a supportive liquidity environment can be maintained: 21:10A mild recession in the US remains likely: 25:00Antipodes' portfolio positioning: 27:30*Stock commentary is illustrative only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security.
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In this episode Alison Savas speaks with Benoit Bazin, the CEO of French-listed building materials manufacturer Saint-Gobain (EPA: SGO)*.
Saint-Gobain (a holding in Antipodes' global portfolios) operates in 76 counties and is playing a major role in making the construction and building industries more sustainable.
It might surprise you that the construction and building industries account for 40% of global carbon emissions - that’s more than the global transportation sector.
Key Times:
Overview of Saint-Gobain: 1:30The global market for sustainable construction materials: 5:3075% of Europe's buildings are energy inefficient: 11:30Saint-Gobain's competitive advantages : 21:30How Saint-Gobain is helping other industries decarbonise (low-carbon concrete & electric vehicle glazing): 27:30The housing market & housing shortages: 33:30*Stock commentary is illustrative only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security.
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At around 11x times forward earnings, UK equities are the cheapest they’ve been since the 2008 financial crisis (apart from COVID), and they are the cheapest in the developed world.
In this episode, Alison Savas and James Rodda discuss the UK macro environment and Antipodes' three largest UK-listed holdings; Diageo, Tesco, and NatWest.
Key Times:
Inflation in the UK & macro outlook: 1:30Diageo (LON: DGE): 6:30Tesco (LON: TSCO): 13:40NatWest Group (LON: NWG): 21:20Stock commentary is illustrative only and not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security.
More about Antipodes: antipodes.com
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The recent stock market rally has become increasingly unbalanced.
The NASDAQ is up almost 40% this year and just 10% off its all-time highs. But it’s the seven largest US tech stocks which have contributed half of the performance in global equities this quarter and calendar year.
In this quarterly update episode, Alison Savas (Investment Director) and Rameez Sadikot (Portfolio Manager) discuss what this narrow performance in equities really means, along with how the macro backdrop could impact markets.
Key times:
Examining stock market performance over the past quarter: 1:00Valuations indicating little margin for error as investors price clear skies: 5:30Recession looming? 8:00Antipodes' current portfolio positioning: 14:30Heineken N.V. (AMS: HEIA): 18:30Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN): 20:30TotalEnergies SE (EPA: TTE): 28:10*Stock commentary in this episode is illustrative only and should not be considered as recommendations to buy, hold, or sell any security.
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Ian Harnett is a co-founder and chief investment strategist of Absolute Strategy Research (ASR) one of only a handful of highly regarded independent global macro research firms.
In this conversation with Alison Savas, Ian discusses why he believes the west has a "vanishingly small" chance of avoiding recession, but explains how a new source of liquidity in global markets could be a game changer.
He also shares his views on stock market valuations and one big risk factor he believes most are overlooking.
Key times:
Can the US & the West sidestep recession? 02:20The critical data points ASR is monitoring closely 05:30Can the Fed restore balance in the labour market? 8:50Non-bank financials & the liquidity crunch: 11:10Outlook for non-residential investment and fiscal deficits: 16:00Why US equities are overvalued: 20:30Valuations of European and Chinese equities: 21:30Can China keep growing? 22:30The big risk investors are overlooking in today’s market: 28:10 -
It was the reopening many investors thought could bring a spectacular stock market resurgence. But the interest in Chinese equities following the end of COVID lockdowns has faded. The domestic recovery has been slower than expected and exports continue to be weighed down by economic deterioration in the West.
But John Stavliotis (Lead PM of Antipodes' Emerging Markets strategy) and Alison Savas (Investment Director) explain why investors should hold the line on China, and discuss three Chinese stocks to watch.
Key times:
Observations from inside China: 01:00What is holding back the Chinese economy? 03:20Will there be a policy response? 7:00The longer-term growth drivers for China's economy: 9:00Geopolitics & China's role in a multipolar world: 15:30Chinese stock market valuations & allocating to China 20:40Stock discussion - Midea Group (SHE: 000333): 23:20Stock discussion - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co (SHE: 300750): 26:00Stock discussion - Galaxy Entertainment Group (HKG: 0027): 29:20More about Antipodes: https://antipodes.com/
Follow Antipodes on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/antipodes-partners/
Stock commentary you hear in this episode is illustrative only and not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security.
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Despite the uncertainty following the largest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis, global equities were on the up in the first quarter of 2023, with index performance saved by mega-cap tech as the market bets we are on the cusp of the closely-watched Fed pivot.
But will the pivot come as quickly as the market expects and will the outcomes be as the market expects?
In this quarterly market update, Alison Savas and Antipodes CIO, Jacob Mitchell, review the key events of Q1 2023 and provide listeners an insight into the Antipodes' team broader market outlook and portfolio positioning.
They also discuss three stocks to navigate this complex market and macro environment - Sanofi (EPA: SAN), TotalEnergies (EPA: TTE) & Midea Group (SHE: 000333).
Key times:
Can the Fed still engineer a soft landing? 01:00The impacts of the banking crisis in the real economy: 05:10The disconnect between the top down and bottom up in the US: 11.20Why Europe and China are relatively better positioned: 16.30Broader portfolio positioning against current macro backdrop: 19:50Sanofi: a big cap pharma that’s insensitive to the economic cycle 23:30TotalEnergies: conventional energy with a transition angle 27:30Midea: an emerging Chinese multinational 32:10More about Antipodes: https://antipodes.com/
Follow Antipodes on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/antipodes-partners/
Stock commentary you hear in this episode is illustrative only and not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security.
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Following the recent bank crises in the US and Europe, Alison Savas and James Rodda discuss the vulnerabilities that remain within global financials, along with the relative winners and losers that could emerge.
The episode also covers potential investment opportunities given the dislocation in US and European financials, including insights into our portfolio holdings UniCredit (BIT: UCG) and ING Group (AMS: INGA).
Key times:
The unravelling of Silicon Valley Bank: 02:25The consequences of the SIVB crisis & longer term impacts on the banking system: 06:30The winners a losers in the global banking system moving forward: 14:00Credit Suisse and the European banking system: 17:50Looking for buying opportunities in global financials: 22:30What all this means for the Fed's next move: 25:40More about Antipodes: https://antipodes.com/
Follow Antipodes on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/antipodes-partners/
Stock commentary you hear in this episode is illustrative only and not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security.
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Siemens Energy (ETR: ENR) is a global leader in wind turbines, utility-scale gas turbines, and grid transition equipment.
In this episode, Siemens Energy CEO, Dr Christian Bruch, provides insights into the demand for wind energy (in particular offshore wind), the role of gas, and shares perspectives on the challenges the world faces in the transition to net zero along with the enormous scale of investment that's required.
Key times:
The net zero ‘trilemma’ & are the targets achievable? – 02:40The critical role of wind energy – 06:00Bottlenecks in delivering sufficient offshore wind infrastructure – 12:10Profitability of wind projects – 18:20The role of gas in decarbonisation – 27:30The enormity of the energy grid investment required to facilitate net zero targets – 31:00Individual stock commentary is illustrative only and not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security.
Antipodes website: antipodes.com
Antipodes on Linkedin: Antipodes Partners
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Alison Savas is joined by Rameez Sadikot, Portfolio Manager and head of Antipodes Quant, Macro and Currency.
In part 1 (1:00 - 15:00), Alison and Rameez discuss the state of global equities - including Antipodes' views on markets and the macro in the US, Europe and China.
In part 2 (15:00 - 27:00), the discussion turns to gold. After a lacklustre performance through most of 2022, investors are once again beginning to pay attention to gold. Alison and Rameez share Antipodes' views and due diligence.
Finally, hear the investment case for Australian gold mining giant, Newcrest Mining (ASX: NCM)* (27:00 - 30:00).
*Individual stock commentary is illustrative only and not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security.
Antipodes website: antipodes.com
Antipodes on Linkedin: Antipodes Partners
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