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We dive into the implications of Donald Trump’s emphatic win at the US presidential elections. Angela Mancini, partner at Control Risks, a global specialist risk consultancy, discusses the factors underlying the outcome, its implication for US policy, especially with regards to Asia. We talk about business strategies under Trump 2.0, and the key issue--risks around China-US relations. We also talk about where the Democratic Party goes from here. The podcast was recorded at our annual macro and markets outlook event. Here is the publication that goes with it. Defying the trend: Economic Outlook and Market Strategy for 2025.
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What is the current state of fintech? Varun Mittal, founder of Fintech Nation, returns to Kopi Time after nearly 100 episodes to comment on the changes in the last four years. We discuss the depth and breadth of the sector, its profitability and investor returns across geographies, and the competition/collaboration relationship between banks and nonbank financial companies. We discuss fintech’s role in wealth planning and financial inclusion, the proliferation of payments solutions, and the state of development in the worlds of cryptos, stablecoins, and CBDCs. Discussions then move on to the impact of AI/GenAI on the financial sector and likely forthcoming regulation.
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This podcast is an 11-minute reflection on the recently concluded IMF annual meetings, held at Washington DC. The meetings were characterised by relief over global economic resiliency, juxtaposed by heightened concerns about a variety of risks. Global growth is expected to remain stable between 2024 and 2025. Concerns about inflation have receded, but we caution against a victory lap. USD weaponisation and trade wars are causing investor strategies to shift. EM resilience would be tested by the outcome of the US elections. Intersection of AI and capital markets is generating interest from regulators. We discuss a chapter in the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report on this theme.
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Shai Akabas, Executive Director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Economic Policy Program, joins Kopi Time to discuss all things US fiscal. There is no silver lining in this conversation, the outlook is gloomy, period. We begin with the US fiscal position over the past 25 years, going from balanced budget to deficits of around 7% of GDP, from net debt/GDP of 35% to 100%. Shai walks us through the various unfunded tax cuts and emergency spending outlays, with no consensus on dealing with the ballooning fiscal obligations, that led to today’s situation. And the outlook, with funding for various entitlement programs getting stretched precisely when spending needs are rising due to aging, is even gloomier. Tax increases, even if not through policy but by better enforcement of current laws could help, but that requires a well-funded tax authority. Tariffs, as disruptive as they are to the global economy, make up for a tiny part of total revenues. Bold bipartisan legislation to deal with entitlements is long overdue. Spending more on interest costs than national defence or healthcare is simply not tenable for the medium term; reforms are needed urgently. Shai’s warnings are loud and clear; hopefully they are heeded at some point in this decade.
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Drew Thompson, Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University, brings his deep China and Taiwan expertise to Kopi Time. Taiwan stands at the crossroads of tech manufacturing excellence and geopolitical tension. How does its recent political developments look from the perspective of its local population, mainland China, and the US administration? How will its politics and economic policies evolve in the coming years? Beyond the superpowers, how is Taiwan’s relationship evolving vis-à-vis SE Asia, India, S Korea, and Japan? What are the risk scenarios ahead? Drew provides unvarnished perspectives and analysis.
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Writer and academic Alexander Capri returns to Kopi Time after nearly 5 years, but the issues we discussed then and now remain relevant, if not even more so. In this engaging chat, Alex walks us through the expanding notion of techno-nationalism, its impact on trade patterns and flows, and corporate strategies around geopolitical fragmentation. We touch upon the innovation race between China and the US, China’s digital belt-and-road strategy, and the trans-Atlantic tech alliance. We consider the implication of all this for South-East Asia, as well as India.
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Vasuki Shastry, Senior Advisor at Gatehouse Advisory Partners, returns to Kopi Time to talk about the decade-old “Make in India” initiative. From Production Linked Incentives (PLI) to splashy marketing campaigns, this has been a signature initiative by the Indian government under Prime Minister Modi. What has been the accomplishment of this effort to usher in a new era of manufacturing in India? Vasuki’s report card is blunt—"it has been a qualified failure.” We go through the data on investment, job creation, technology transfer, and competition to assess his claim. We also discuss India’s complex regional heterogeneity, centre-state relationship, women’s participation in the labour force, the ultra-competitiveness of China, the difficulty—and perhaps the futility—of building an entire home-grown electronics supply chain, and the pull from emerging manufacturing powerhouses like Vietnam. Vasuki would like to see three key improvements ahead to convince him that manufacturing value added would rise substantially in the coming years—(i) a level playing field for businesses, with no perception of favouritism, (ii) stability of regulation, particularly tax laws, and (iii) political cohesion between the states and centre. He may not be impressed with Make in India so far, but Vasuki sees it as “an honourable aspiration to retain.”
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Jennifer Sciubba, PhD, President and CEO of Population Reference Bureau, joins Kopi Time to discuss the science and policy dimensions of demographics. She begins by explaining the various ways of looking at population projections, pointing out that for most cases in recent decades, forecasts have ended up erring on the side of higher fertility. With fertility surprising on the downside and life expectancy rising, there is an overwhelming dynamic of rising median age the population around the world. Aging is pervasive and largely impervious to policy intervention. As people get wealthier and more educated, they tend to have less children, period. However, very low fertility rates likely reveal something not quite right with a society, from anxiety about cost of raising a child to a lack of societal purpose. Nonetheless, Dr. Sciubba is not pessimistic about a future with many more older people than today. The key is to strive for a society that ages without remaining ageist. Lower productivity and subdued economic growth may well be inevitable, but that doesn’t need to come with a burdensome social construct. Accepting the forthcoming aging dynamic, building a dignified and resilient society with provisions for health, shelter, and requisite skills is the way to go.
You can watch Jennifer’s Ted talk for a shorter version of her views: The Truth About Human Population Decline | Jennifer D. Sciubba | TED - YouTube.
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Prakash Kannan, Chief Economist and Director of the Economics & Investment Strategy department at GIC, returns to Kopi Time to talk about evolving macro developments and implications for asset allocation. We cover it all in this discussion, from Fed outlook to EM resiliency, global liquidity to China policy, yen carry trade to gold, and how a portfolio suitable for the past decade is unlikely to bear similar fruit going forward. Lots of insights.
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This conversation is about a flagship report on Southeast Asia’s outlook. Earlier this year, researchers from DBS, Angsana Council (backed by Monk’s Hill Ventures), and Bain & Company came together to query the drivers of regional economic performance in recent decades and the outlook for the coming decade. The work was done taking into account ongoing disruption from geopolitics, technology, and climate change. Charles Ormiston, founding partner of Bain and Company’s Southeast Asia business, and I talk about the motivation behind the report, our key findings, and strategy for the private and public sector in light of the report’s insights. Despite many headwinds, the next ten years offer plenty of exciting opportunities for the region. Hope that comes across through this engaging chat.
Report link: outlook.angsanacouncil.org and Navigating High Winds: Southeast Asia Outlook 2024 – 34 (dbs.com.sg)
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Shekhar Aiyar, a Non-resident Fellow at Bruegel, on leave from the International Monetary Fund, joins Kopi Time to mount a substantive case for globalisation, a much-maligned word in some circles these days. Sharing his cutting edge research, Shekhar refers to considerable empirical evidence to establish the gains from trade for various parts of the global economy over the past half century. He then shares findings on the cost of reversing the course, a process termed as geoeconomic fragmentation. We discuss how that is measured, the estimated costs, and the implication for international monetary system and the global financial safety net. We then move on to another strand of Shekhar’s research, productivity spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment. Triangulating data from multiple sources, Shekhar and his co-authors have put together a large firm-level cross country panel dataset. Some of the findings from analysing that dataset are fascinating, from the modes of spillover to the differing results for emerging and industrial economies. This takes us to a discussion on industrial policies’ role in driving investment, and the various associated perils. Deep insights.
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James Crabtree, distinguished visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and a senior fellow at the Asia Society, returns to Kopi Time to shed light on this year of momentous elections. We delve right into the US, first by taking stock of the ongoing drama around Trump, Biden, and Harris. We then consider the scenario of a Trump re-election and the likely outcomes around a Trump defeat. James has thoughtful views on what a Trump 2.0 would mean for Asia, as well as the impact on US domestic policies. We then talk about US strategy on Asia, particularly China, under both Democrats and Republicans, and how that would evolve after the elections. James then offers commentaries on three other major election outcomes this year, in the UK, France, and India. Elections come and go, but hard economic and social challenges remain. James underscores these points astutely.
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We discuss global payment trends with David Mann, Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Mastercard. From experiential travel to business events, there has been a dramatic change in consumer preferences since the pandemic, with the rise in cost of living playing a key factor. We talk about the patterns picked up from Mastercard’s extensive data on transactions around the world. From shopping trends in Japan to tourism in South East Asia and India, as well as new fintech platforms and payment rails, David has a lot to share.
Link to Travel Trends 2024: https://www.mastercardservices.com/en/industries/travel/insights/travel-trends-2024-breaking-boundaries
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Mdm Kay Kuok, Chair of the Yale-NUS Governing Board
Members of the Yale-NUS Governing Board
Professor Aaron Thean, Deputy President (Academic Affairs) and Provost of NUS
Professor Joanne Roberts, President of Yale-NUS College
Families, Yale-NUS community, and Friends
And dear graduates,
Most of you were the class of 2020 in high school, your graduations disrupted by a once in a century pandemic. Today, as the Yale-NUS graduating class of 2024, your lives are mercifully not disrupted. It would however be tone-deaf to not recognize that many graduates in the Middle-East, Ukraine, or the US, won’t be enjoying a commencement like yours this year.
This is a heavy realisation as we traverse through life. Moments of celebrations and triumph for many are invariably juxtaposed with sorrow, loss, and sadness elsewhere. At your highest highs and lowest lows, know that there are others with a different luck of the draw.
Graduates, recognising that life’s peaks and valleys are inevitable can be liberating. It underscores the line “nothing lasts forever.” I think it also makes us less self-complacent, less territorial and possessive, more humble, and open to experiencing the next, the other. And perhaps, along those lines, more open to experiments. I want to explore the wisdom of experiments in the rest of this talk.
Experiments can be scientific or social, public or personal. You can experiment with a business plan, a critical query, a new diet, a different workout, or just see if hearing someone out could give us an insight not feasible within our experiences.
Consider hanging out with students from different majors an experiment. During my graduate school days, that very experiment led me to my life partner.
Reach out to those from different religions, political persuasion, culture, or lifestyle, and see if their company and proximity make our lives richer and more joyous. If our mutual humanity can transcend our differences. These are experiments for the rest of your lives. And they will matter more as you delve into higher studies or jobs.
If you’re a scientist, your vocation is largely about testing hypothesis through experiments, but surely that’s not where it ends.
America is an experiment. Singapore is an experiment. Yale-NUS has been an experiment.
Every new idea’s worth is tested through experiments. Is it possible to send humans to the moon and back? Let’s experiment, let’s try. Is it possible to have a thriving, multicultural, multiracial society? Let’s experiment. If it fails, try again.
Some pursuits can follow the path of Thomas Edison, noisy and full of stumbles, but at the end, marked by glorious achievements. To paraphrase him, he never failed, he just successfully found the numerous ways that the experiment would not work.
Some experiments can be spectacularly successful over a short period of time, thanks to luck, serendipity, or a stroke of genius. I wish you have those, but I also know that for the most you, that will not be the case. My hope is in fact that you leave this campus with the grit necessary to follow Edison’s path, and don’t shy away from your dreams at the first, second, or even third roadblock.
Your exceptionally fortunate time at the Yale-NUS, in my view, has been an experiment of a lifetime. You could have gone to so many other places, but aren’t you gratified that you came here? Reflecting on President Roberts’s words, this place has hopefully instilled in you the patience, perseverance, and sense of community critically needed to make a difference.
This beautiful campus, these dedicated and brilliant faculty, and these amazing facilities have nourished your minds over the past four years. That experiment of liberal arts in the heart of Singapore has been a resounding success. You made that happen. The legacy of this institution will never fade.
So, let’s embrace uncertainty, let’s stand up against the fear of failure, let’s move forward, secure in the conviction that your time here has provided you with the values and intellectual mettle to take on the world. We can write down an endless list of woes that afflict our planet; let them be your problems to solve. With your curiosity, empathy, and knowledge, let the experiments begin.Congratulations Class of 2024!
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We hear about the subject of the moment from Microsoft’s Asia head of business development, Zia Zaman. We begin with the question if the world has been transformed in a comparable manner in the past year and a half as the smartphone and Appstore revolution achieved during 2007/08. Zia argues the transformation has been similar in influencing corporate strategy and productivity enhancement potential. We discuss the unparalleled cost and investment associated with operationalising and commercialising Large Language Models. Zia walks us through multiple stages of tech introduction, adoption, and value creation, with most still in the pipeline for GenAI. We talk about the compute needs and carbon footprint of running GenAI models, and the role of regulation in balancing business and public interests. Finally, Zia talks about the depth and breadth of the relationship between OpenAI and Microsoft. Fascinating insights.
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Mitchell Presnick, a visiting fellow of practice at the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies at Harvard University, joins Kopi Time to bring much needed pragmatism to the China-US discourse. Mitch, researching the future of US- China commercial relations in the post-engagement era, is no China apologist. But his decades of doing business in China have given him a realistic view on where engagement and symbiosis make sense. We discuss Mich’s days building a business in China in the 1990s, the playbook he suggests to American businesses, and his take on US policy. Stressing that “de-risking does not mean decoupling,” Mitch wants the two nations to attain positive sum outcomes. May his views get amplified.
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Recorded in Jakarta, Kopi Time delves into Indonesia’s elections, domestic and foreign policy, investment environment, and economy with Kevin O'Rourke, Principle, PT Reformasi Information Services. Kevin’s team has provided independent political risk consultancy for many years, and he demonstrates his deep insights in this far-reaching conversation. We begin with the recently concluded elections, and what one can expect from President Prabowo’s administration, from balancing geopolitics to the nation’s aspiration to climb to a much higher level of income, prosperity, and welfare. Kevin provides sober-eyed assessment on the strategies announced so far. We discuss Indonesia’s democratic process, industrial policy, populist measures, fossil fuel industry, green transition potential, and the legacy of outgoing President Jokowi. Kevin’s take on Indonesia is by no means negative, but certainly cautious and couched with concerns informed by his scrutiny of this country’s ups and downs over two decades.
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Today’s episode subject is in response to popular demand. Whether at work or at home, concerns on cybersecurity are elevated to say the least. Nicolas Reys, Partner leading Control Risks’ Digital Risks Americas and Global Threat Intelligence practices, begins by going the three kinds of cyberthreats out there—state sponsored, ransomware, and “hactivism.” We then talk about the impact of recent geopolitical developments on the cybersecurity environment. Singapore’s population and firms continue to face cyberattacks, from scams to phishing, but Nic sees substantial awareness and policy guardrails available to mitigate risks here. We talk about frontier tech like GenAI and quantum computing, and their potential disrupting impact on cybersecurity. We end with Nic laying out the best practice corporate strategies to manage digital risks.
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Martin Mühleisen, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, returns to Kopi Time to talk about the state of multilateralism. He sees the recent IMF meetings marked by modest progress in securing greater funding for development and climate change, but much more remains to be done to give developing nations their requisite voice in global bodies. On issues such as supply chain resiliency and domestic market protection, nations around the world are undertaking a variety of interventions, which may be understandable given the pandemic shock and geopolitics. Yet, they create risks for inflation, and add layers of inefficiency and distortion. Martin weighs in on US fiscal, Japan’s monetary policy, and Europe’s difficulties with the war in Ukraine and China-US friction. We round up the discussion with how to keep multilateral institutions like the IMF maintain their relevance in this multipolar world.
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We catch up in Washington DC with Dr. Alexis Crow, lead, Global Geopolitical Investing Practice, pwc. Recorded on the last day of the IMF-World Bank 2024 spring meetings, we go over the key takeaways from our interactions with policy makers and analysts. From a mild upgrade in global growth forecasts to taking stock of the scarring of the pandemic, there was a sense of cautious optimism during the meetings. Ongoing geopolitical strife of course remained a shadow, and concerns were expressed on the impact of lingering high interest rates on various economies and markets. China-US tussle over economic overcapacity and industrial policy looks likely to intensify, although there has been a welcome rise in engagement between the world’s two largest economies. We also discuss the latest deliberations on AI, climate change, and sticky inflation.
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