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Repo fails make sense being an indicator of collateral difficulties. Same for the 4-week US Treasury bill rate when it falls substantially. But how does Japanese government bill yields fit into the US$ repo picture? And why are they such a solid fit for it? The answer lies in the carry trade and what it means for funding markets as well as US recession risks.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Mizuho Buys ‘Safe’ Assets on Risk That US Soft Landing Fails
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-08/mizuho-buys-safe-assets-to-cut-damage-if-us-soft-landing-failshttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Some unexpected bad news out of South Korea has implications for AI and a lot more. The investment boom triggered by ChatGPT has been a critical support for especially the Asian economy. Now there are signs it is cooling off along with a further setback in autos. Inopportune timing, to say the least.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Bloomberg South Korea’s Economy Ekes Out Growth as BOK Assesses Risks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-23/south-korea-s-economy-ekes-out-growth-to-emerge-from-contractionhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Gold continues to soar to record highs, but why? Most will say inflation though bullion is actually a terrible inflation hedge. The reason why many people believe this is the one time during the Great Inflation. Gold's run in the seventies was instead about what happened in the sixties long before the inflation. And it's the same thing - the other end of it - that we're seeing today.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FRB Boston Bretton Woods Conference 1984
https://www.bostonfed.org/-/media/Documents/conference/28/conf28.pdfAlan Greenspan Testimony Before the Committee on Banking and Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives July 24, 1998
https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/1998/19980724.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
A lot of people are asking if the Fed now regrets cutting rates by 50 bps in September, or maybe cutting at all. Recent data make it seem as though the soft landing never went anywhere, plus what appears to be happening with market interest rates. In truth, every part of this Fed "regret" trend is wrong, starting with the view from the central bank itself.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Federal Reserve Beige Books
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/publications/beige-book-default.htmFOMC Chair Powell Press Conference September 2024
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20240918.pdfBloomberg Fed’s Beige Book Shows Little Growth Across Most of US
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-23/fed-s-beige-book-shows-little-economic-growth-across-most-of-ushttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Another central bank moves up its rate cut plans, accelerating its rate reductions with a 50-bps cut. At the same time the IMF lowers growth projections and warns risks of more downside are rising. These two developments are related to the same thing. It's becoming clearer where this weakness is coming from and that's why the public sector is starting to become more aggressive.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bank of Canada October 2024 Monetary Policy Report
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/mpr-2024-10-23.pdfBloomberg IMF Lowers Global Growth Forecast, Warns of Increasing Risks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-22/imf-lowers-global-growth-forecast-warns-of-increasing-risksIMF WEO October 2024 Policy Pivot, Rising Threats
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/10/22/world-economic-outlook-october-2024https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Huge thanks to Eric Basmajian and train-traveler Mike Green for answering member questions. Member/Subscriber Live Q&A recorded October 22, 2024.
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We are seeing the full effects of the debt crisis paradox. And it only seems like a "paradox" from hte perspective of conventional wisdom on the matter. Government debt is indeed bad for the economy, but not AT ALL in the way most people are led to believe or assume. This creates another paradox, one where that mainstream criticism does a lot to discredit all criticism thereby making even more debt likely.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Milton Friedman Newsweek February 1981
https://miltonfriedman.hoover.org/internal/media/dispatcher/214251/fullhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Does the Bank of Canada need to exist? Canada shares a lot more than just a common border with the US, interest rates, inflation, even changes in economic output. And those are all pointing in the wrong direction. The Canadian experience provides a perfect example of what globally synchronized really means in all its facets.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
This may end up being the final straw for what's left of the global economy. With more highly negative signals from copper, gold, oil and swaps, even bond spreads here, we're getting more impressions that the part rolling recession is now rolling right on into the full thing. If this one goes, that's usually it.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Carmaker Misery Is Dragging Down Global Credit Market Returns
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-16/carmaker-misery-is-dragging-down-global-credit-market-returnsBloomberg Rolling Manufacturing Recession Collides With US Election Angst
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-10-18/us-manufacturers-face-layoffs-weak-results-ahead-of-trump-harris-election
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
A whopping 98% of American voters in one mainstream poll say the economy is a major concern, including 79% who rate it their top worry. Economists, the media, politicians, policymakers are at a loss to explain this. The latest data from the US government shows why that is, both the confusion and the underlying trouble. A vast majority of the evidence continues to consistently agree with what Americans are saying.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
NRF Census Retail Sales Data Shows Retail Sales Grew in September
https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/census-retail-sales-data-shows-retail-sales-grew-septemberNRF CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor Shows Retail Sales Declined Monthly in September But Still Grew Year Over Year
https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/cnbc/nrf-retail-monitor-shows-retail-sales-declined-monthly-septemberAP NORC
https://apnorc.org/projects/the-economy-tops-voters-minds-as-they-consider-their-vote-in-the-upcoming-election/https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Wall Street was rocked by a huge plunge in orders for ASML, a company which produces machines that touch practically every part of the global economy. That was followed by another four-letter firm, LVMH, which reported a shock decline in revenue. Both showing the same thing from very different angles, further confirming - along with swap markets - why there will be another leg down in interest rates.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
ASML Home
https://www.asml.com/enASML Q4 2023 Results
https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2024/q4-2023-financial-resultsASML Q3 2024 Results
https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2024/q3-2024-financial-results-dd3ac76a9d4d0f8cIntel Q2 2024 Financial Results
https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1704/intel-reports-second-quarter-2024-financial-resultsLVMH Q3 2024 Results
https://www.lvmh.com/en/publications/lvmh-shows-good-resilience-in-the-current-contextNYT Shares of Louis Vuitton Owner Drop on Anxiety About Chinese Shoppers
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/16/business/dealbook/lvmh-dior-louis-vuitton-china.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
We are in the thick of bank earnings and quarterly reports. The one theme they keep coming back to is...losses. It's become such a problem even JPM CEO Jamie Dimon snapped during his last earnings call. The thing is, in spouting off he told the truth about all of it.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Jamie Dimon Is Right. Forget the ‘Damn Number.’
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-10-14/jamie-dimon-is-right-analysts-need-to-look-beyond-their-modelsBank of America Quarterly Earnings
https://investor.bankofamerica.com/quarterly-earningsJPM Third Quarter 2024 Results
https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/quarterly-earnings/2024/3rd-quarter/66269bb6-ecc5-4172-b461-6b7e7cd47aab.pdfCitigroup Third Quarter 2024 Results
https://www.citigroup.com/rcs/citigpa/storage/public/Earnings/Q32024/2024pr-qtr3rslt.pdfBloomberg Consumers Shift Spending to Pay for Basic Staples, Citi CFO Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-09/consumers-shift-spending-to-pay-for-basic-staples-citi-cfo-sayshttps://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
Another update from top Chinese officials on the status of "stimulus" comes amidst a flurry of macro and banking data from the country. While many will claim the former cancels out the increasingly grim nature of the latter, the previous data still matters at the very least to describe the size of the hole China will have to climb out of. Assuming it is even making a reasonable attempt to. That last press gathering provided few assurances.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
China NBS Consumer Prices September 2024
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202410/t20241013_1956899.htmlCNBC China’s Ministry of Finance is taking aim at local debt problems before tackling broader economic challenges
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/14/chinas-ministry-of-finance-tackles-debt-problems-before-economic-challenges.htmlCaixin Exclusive: China May Add 6 Trillion Yuan in Treasury Bonds to Buttress Economy
https://www.caixinglobal.com/2024-10-14/exclusive-china-may-issue-6-trillion-yuan-in-treasury-bonds-to-buttress-economy-102245341.htmlReuters China's exports miss forecasts as lone bright spot fades
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-sept-export-growth-hits-5-month-low-global-demand-cools-2024-10-14/https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
A big jump in jobless claims actually muddies the picture for the labor market. Meanwhile, consumer prices that many in the mainstream are claiming as sticky...are. But not for the reasons stated. We're seeing "sticky" prices in the technical sense, and that's not good.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Bloomberg Odd Lots Austan Goolsbee Explains the Fed’s Big Rate Cut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-11/austan-goolsbee-explains-the-fed-s-big-rate-cutAtlanta Fed Sticky Price CPI
https://www.atlantafed.org/research/inflationproject/stickyprice/https://www.eurodollar.university
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The world’s major growth engine the past few years is showing more and worsening signs of finally cracking, including its currency hitting a record low just today. I’m not talking about the US, obviously, nor is it sickly China. India. If India has stumbled, too, as the rupee suggests, then there might be no escaping globally synchronized.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg India’s Industrial Output Declines For First Time in Two Years
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-11/india-s-industrial-output-declines-for-first-time-in-two-years?srnd=phx-economics-v2S&P Global
https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/india-forward/indias-growing-role-in-the-global-economyHSBC India Total sales growth softens as export gains diminish
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/8b2aeb7799e44b899c2651b5732e0878https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
There is a story brewing in repo. Fails have broken a long run trend and they did it in early August. Latest data from FRBNY says that's still the case. It fits with a bunch of other data as well as brings up the ongoing unwind in the real yen carry trade. Finally, behind all of it is US recession fears driving fails, collateral, Japan's withdrawal, and more. And you don't have to take my word for it; hear it (or read it) straight from a carry trader himself.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Mizuho Buys ‘Safe’ Assets on Risk That US Soft Landing Fails
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-08/mizuho-buys-safe-assets-to-cut-damage-if-us-soft-landing-fails?srnd=phx-economics-v2https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU -
While everyone - especially in Chinese and China-related stocks - get caught up in last month's "stimulus" frenzy, the overlooked the only real news that came out of it. Very quietly, the country's top bank regulator just casually mentioned the government was gathering a trillion yuan to "recapitalize" China's biggest six banks. Yeah. Meanwhile, volatility has hit the previously insane equity surge.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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https://www.eurodollar.universityBloomberg China to Add Capital at Big Banks for First Time in a Decade
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-24/china-to-boost-capital-at-mega-banks-for-first-time-in-a-decadeSCMP China weighs injecting US$142 billion of capital into top banks
https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3280008/china-weighs-injecting-us142-billion-capital-top-banksNikkei Asia China's state banks report more bad loans to hotels, restaurants and stores
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Finance/China-s-state-banks-report-more-bad-loans-to-hotels-restaurants-and-storesBloomberg China Markets Warn Xi That More Stimulus Is Needed to Fuel Rally
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-08/china-markets-warn-xi-that-more-stimulus-is-needed-to-fuel-rallyTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
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Another recession warning and this one is related to brewing problems with unemployment. The September payroll report has put mainstream focus back on a soft- or no-landing scenario, but we've been there before not long ago. Meanwhile, apart from the unreliable payroll figure everything else continues to point to bigger trouble, including Americans who have stopped using their credit cards.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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https://www.eurodollar.universityABC News Blockbuster jobs report flexes economic strength, defying Americans' lukewarm attitudes
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/blockbuster-jobs-report-flexes-economic-strength-defying-americans/story?id=108887637Challenger, Gray & Christmas Job Cuts Flat in September 2024 from August; YTD Surpasses 2023
https://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-flat-in-september-2024-from-august-ytd-surpasses-2023/Robert Shimer Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment
https://home.uchicago.edu/~shimer/wp/reassess.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
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US economic weakness continues to show up outside the country as much as inside (last payroll estimate notwithstanding). Japan's government leading indicator just tanked, lowest value since 2020 and pointing to growing trouble in Japan. Same from Mexico and even according to one by JP Morgan.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Ueda Hints at Dovishness After New Prime Minister Urges Caution
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/ueda-hints-at-dovishness-after-new-prime-minister-urges-cautionS&P Global Mexico Manufacturing PMI
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/5cbff538ec56483b8e9a77ce7c1c252eJP Morgan Global Composite
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/80a2d5d7d8554f7f909ba9ae30fd4016***EDU FALL SALE***
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September's payroll estimate soared WAY above expectations. Is it a Fed miracle? This isn't the first time this has happened; in fact, each of the last two times the FOMC began cutting rates met eerily similar results. Steve and I talk about what those were and why, also why that means everything right now.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
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Best subscription prices on the Deep Dive Analysis, Daily Briefing, and EDU membership.
https://www.eurodollar.universitySeptember 2024 Payroll Report
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htmTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
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