エピソード
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Today on Moment of Zen is a conversation I had with Samo Burja back in January 2024 on Japan's existential demographic crisis, analyzing how collapsing fertility rates and population aging threaten the nation's economic and geopolitical future. The discussion explores cultural barriers to family formation, automation limitations, and Japan's dilemma between preserving identity versus accepting transformative change.
Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:
Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers
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SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK |
Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
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X / TWITTER:
@SamoBurja
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:
Demographic Crisis
Fertility rate collapsed to 1.3 - population shrinking from 125M to 50M this century
Aging dependency ratio crushing economy - fewer workers supporting more elderly
Young people may emigrate if decline accelerates
Cultural Challenges
Work vs. family contradiction - salaryman culture prioritizes career over children
Proposed solution: Require executives to have 2+ kids
97% ethnic homogeneity creates social cohesion but limits immigration options
Economic Implications
Automation needs scale - fewer people makes it less effective
Japan's productivity gains vanish when controlling for aging
Risk of economic tailspin and brain drain
Military Transformation
From pacifist to military power - world-class navy, converting carriers for F-35Bs
Nuclear weapons ready - space program + plutonium = "some assembly required"
Key player in Taiwan scenarios
Geopolitical Positioning
Economically tied to China, security-wise allied with US
Will stay politically independent from China due to nationalism
Would go nuclear if US withdraws from East Asia
Japan must choose: Maintain cultural identity and accept economic decline, or transform through immigration to stay economically viable. Currently choosing the former while hoping automation saves them. -
Today on Moment of Zen is a conversation I had with Samo Burja about the intricate historical, military, and cultural dimensions of the India-Pakistan conflict, and how these nuclear neighbors navigate their complex relationship.
This podcast originally aired on the Village Global podcast.
Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:
Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers
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Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
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RECOMMENDED LINK/S:
India: Live Players Analysis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GbsYh2kx7Y
--
Follow on X:
@samoburja@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia
--
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Conflict stems from unresolved partition issues dividing predominantly Muslim and Hindu regions
India's large Muslim population (200-300 million) creates internal stability concerns during potential conflicts
Pakistan relies heavily on its military for national cohesion despite ethnic diversity
Both nations possess modern military capabilities including nuclear weapons (170-200 warheads each)
Nuclear conflict would likely only occur if Pakistan's government faced collapse or if India pursued regime change
A nuclear war could cause millions of deaths and create 30-50 million refugees
China maintains ties with Pakistan and has its own territorial disputes with India
Likely future: continued sporadic fighting followed by ceasefires rather than full-scale war
Pakistan's legitimacy relies on opposing India; India sees Pakistan as obstacle to global influence
Unlike Israel-Palestine, this conflict could theoretically be resolved without existential questions
India's optimal strategy: economically outgrow Pakistan while maintaining internal security -
エピソードを見逃しましたか？
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Today on Moment of Zen, we're sharing a conversation about defense innovation bureaucracy reform recorded at this week's Hill & Valley Forum in Washington D.C.
In this session, Palantir, CTO Sha Sankar and Senator Mike Lee dissect America's defense innovation paralysis. They articulate how bureaucratic accretion stifles the necessary competition and "heretical" personalities historically driving breakthroughs. Their prescription: regulatory reset via the REINS Act, competing procurement programs, and empowering maverick leaders—essential counters to China's accelerating AI capabilities.
If you're interested to hear all the talks from the forum, please subscribe to The Hill & Valley Forum Podcast:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HillValleyForum
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-hill-valley-forum-podcast/id1692653857
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/39s4MCyt1pOTQ8FjOAS4mi
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SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD
Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
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Follow on X:
@SenMikeLee (Senator Mike Lee)
@friedberg (Shyam Sankar)
@cgarrett_15 (Christian Garrett)
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
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KEY HIGHLIGHTS:
Defense innovation has stalled by prioritizing process over people and rigidly following bureaucratic procedures
Competition between services and programs historically drove breakthroughs but has been lost
America needs more "heretical" founder-type leaders within defense
The REINS Act could restore constitutional order by requiring Congress to approve regulations
Bureaucratic reform is essential to compete with China in the AI arms race -
Today on Moment of Zen, we're sharing a conversation about rebuilding American manufacturing recorded at this week's Hill & Valley Forum in Washington D.C.
Senator Todd Young is joined by Shaun Maguire, a partner at Sequoia, and David Friedberg the CEO of Ohalo to discuss the massive energy gap with China, how to reform education for industrial jobs, and where strategic innovation could help the US regain its competitive edge.
If you're interested to hear all the talks from the forum, please subscribe to The Hill & Valley Forum Podcast:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HillValleyForum
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-hill-valley-forum-podcast/id1692653857
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/39s4MCyt1pOTQ8FjOAS4mi
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SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD
Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
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Follow on X:
@SenToddYoung (Senator Todd Young)
@friedberg (David Friedberg)
@shaunmmaguire (Shaun Maguire)
@cgarrett_15 (Christian Garrett)
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
--
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Preview
(00:57) Introduction to the panel on rebuilding American manufacturing
(01:25) Panel discussion begins on industrial strength in America
(02:29) Shaun Maguire on creating national champions to rebuild supply chains
(04:43) Senator Young on government's role in reshoring critical technologies
(08:00) David Friedberg on energy and education as baseline problems
(14:35) Sponsors: Netsuite | Shopify
(17:05) Discussion on nuclear energy policy and regulatory reform
(20:00) Role of automation in American manufacturing revival
(22:48) Debate on friend-shoring versus onshoring manufacturing
(27:48) Magic wand policy changes to bring back manufacturing
(30:56) Sponsors: AdQuick | Squad
(32:53) Outro -
Today on Moment of Zen, we're sharing a conversation from the 2024 Hill and Valley Forum with the founders of Scale AI, Anthropic, and AI Fund on the urgent race between the U.S. and China in AI innovation.
Moderated by Senator Cory Booker and featuring Alexandr Wang, Jack Clark, and Andrew Eng, the panel covers why American AI leadership is at risk, and how smarter policy and faster deployment are critical to maintaining a competitive edge. (Note: that this conversation took place before the DeepSeek breakthrough.)
Keep an eye out for the 2025 Hill and Valley Forum on Wednesday, April 30 — and subscribe to the Hill & Valley podcast in the episode description to listen to every panel.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/39s4MCyt1pOTQ8FjOAS4mi
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-hill-valley/id1692653857
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HillValleyForum
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SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK
Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
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X / TWITTER:
@CoryBooker
@AndrewYNg
@alexandr_wang@jackclarkSF
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:
US-China AI competition:
The panelists strongly disagree with the Rand Corporation's assessment that China won't produce major AI advances
Jack Clark emphasized that underestimating China's creativity would be "chronically stupid"
Alex Wang noted Chinese companies have built some of the best open-source AI models in the world
Regulation approach:
The panelists generally advocated for minimal regulation that doesn't stifle innovation
Andrew Ng compared AI to electricity (not a "dual-use" but "multi-use" technology) that shouldn't be over-regulated
The panel suggested regulating specific applications rather than the foundational technology
National security concerns:
Alex Wang expressed that the US Department of Defense is using AI too slowly compared to adversaries
The panelists identified bureaucracy as a major obstacle to the US military adopting AI quickly enough
They described a "triple whammy" situation: rapidly advancing technology, increasing global conflicts, and risk-seeking leadership in rival nations
Infrastructure needs:
Jack Clark advocated for US investment in computing infrastructure to maintain leadership
He mentioned permit reform as surprisingly crucial for AI advancement to build data centers
The panel discussed the need for the US to compete with Middle Eastern countries' massive AI investments
Future vision (2055):
Jack Clark: Everyone will have customized education and tutoring
Alex Wang: Scientific breakthroughs will make sci-fi futures a reality
Andrew Ng: Intelligence will become cheap and accessible to everyone, not just the wealthy -
Today's episode is a conversation I had with Samo Burja in 2019 about why civilizations collapse, how functional institutions are built, and what makes some societies flourish while others decay. We explore his Great Founder Theory, the myth of egalitarianism, and why exceptional outliers drive innovation more than democratic processes.
This podcast originally aired on the Village Global podcast.
Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:
Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers
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📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
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RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith
Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165
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SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | BREX | INCOGNI
Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
Ready to take your startup to the next level? Visit https://www.brex.com/grow to join the 30,000+ companies already streamlining their finances with Brex. Get high-yield banking, smart expense management, and scalable financial tools designed specifically for founders who want to focus on building, not bookkeeping.
Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code MOMENT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/moment
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RECOMMENDED LINKS:
Functional Institutions are the Exception
https://www.samoburja.com/functional-institutions-are-the-exception/
Intellectual Dark Matter
https://samoburja.com/intellectual-dark-matter/
--
X / TWITTER:
@SamoBurja
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
--
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:
Societies are artificial constructs built on cornerstone institutions and knowledge that require intentional renewal
Great Founder Theory: exceptional individuals like Steve Jobs create transformative changes that shape institutions
Singapore as an example of successful governance through visionary leadership and long-term thinking
Egalitarianism often functions as a control mechanism rather than a practical reality
Technology inherently drives centralization despite temporary decentralization phases
Future global order likely to be bipolar between US (innovation advantage) and China (different values)
Successful institutions require adaptability to changing circumstances -
In this episode of Moment of Zen, New York Times columnist Ross Douthat joins Erik Torenberg to discuss his new book "Believe: Why Everyone Should Be Religious," making the case that institutional religion is not just socially beneficial but intellectually defensible. They discuss the decline of New Atheism, the tension between traditional Christianity and Silicon Valley's techno-optimism within the "New Right" coalition, and whether AI consciousness points to something beyond materialism.
--
📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
--
RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith
Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165
--
SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | BREX | INCOGNI
Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
Ready to take your startup to the next level? Visit https://www.brex.com/grow to join the 30,000+ companies already streamlining their finances with Brex. Get high-yield banking, smart expense management, and scalable financial tools designed specifically for founders who want to focus on building, not bookkeeping.
Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code MOMENT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/moment
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LINKS:
Ross Douthat: https://www.nytimes.com/column/ross-douthat
Believe: Why Everyone Should Be Religious: https://www.zondervan.com/p/believe/
X / TWITTER:
@DouthatNYT
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
--
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:
Ross explains we're at a cultural inflection point where secularization has plateaued and there's evidence of religious revival.
New atheism has declined as the world hasn't become more reasonable despite becoming less religious.
Ross argues religion is intellectually defensible based on fine-tuning of the universe and the hard problem of consciousness.
He contends that merely appreciating religion's social benefits isn't enough—genuine belief is necessary.
The AI discussion explores whether consciousness might exist beyond materialist explanations.
They examine tensions in the "New Right" between tech-optimists and religious traditionalists. -
Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja examine India's trajectory as the world's most populous nation, tackling India's surprising demographic decline, delayed industrialization due to bureaucratic inefficiency, and complex relations with China and Pakistan. They explore Modi's nationalist approach, India's digital potential, and how institutional barriers might limit India's rise in a multipolar world order.
Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:
Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers
--
📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
--
RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith
Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165
--
SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | BREX | INCOGNI
Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
Ready to take your startup to the next level? Visit https://www.brex.com/grow to join the 30,000+ companies already streamlining their finances with Brex. Get high-yield banking, smart expense management, and scalable financial tools designed specifically for founders who want to focus on building, not bookkeeping.
Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code MOMENT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/moment
--
X / TWITTER:
@SamoBurja
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
--
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:
Demographics: India has surpassed China in population but faces rapid aging with fertility rates already below replacement level.
Economic Development: Industrialization likely within 50 years, not 10; constrained by bureaucracy and regulation rather than demographics.
Reform Needs: Requires anti-corruption efforts, reduced bureaucracy, special economic zones, and infrastructure development.
Geopolitics: Complicated relationships with China (border disputes) and the West; Samo suggests India should be more self-interested in international relations.
Modi's Impact: Promotes nationalism but hasn't effectively addressed bureaucratic problems.
Digital Potential: Has talent for creating domestic tech giants with proper digital protectionism.
Warning: Must avoid nuclear conflict with Pakistan. -
Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja dive deep into how Xi Jinping is shaping China's society today and its place in the world. They discuss Xi’s firm hold on power, his connections with different political groups, and how his decisions are affecting China's economy, military, and politics.
Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:
Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers
—
📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
--
RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith
Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165
--
SPONSORS: BREX | NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | INCOGNI
Ready to take your startup to the next level? Visit https://www.brex.com/grow to join the 30,000+ companies already streamlining their finances with Brex. Get high-yield banking, smart expense management, and scalable financial tools designed specifically for founders who want to focus on building, not bookkeeping.
Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code MOMENT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/moment
--
X / TWITTER:
@SamoBurja
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
--
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:
Consolidated unprecedented power through anti-corruption campaigns
Dismantled previous oligarchic system but created succession crisis
Maintains Marxist ideology while managing slowing economic growth
Limits wealth influence and civil society (Jack Ma case)
Reframes economic challenges as equality/environmental successes
Belt and Road Initiative less impactful than expected
Scientific innovation hindered by political conformity
Future paths: South Korea-style model or renewed socialist focus
Demographic challenges may limit long-term economic/military power -
Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja discuss the complex relationship between Mexican drug cartels and the country's political system. Samo explains how cartels operate not as insurgencies but as business entities with deep connections to Mexican elites.
The discussion covers the economic impact of drug trafficking, how legalization affects cartel operations, and comparisons with other countries' experiences, and explore potential solutions for Mexico's development and the geopolitical implications for U.S.-Mexico relations.
Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:
Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers
—
📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
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SPONSOR: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | INCOGNI | SQUAD
Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code MOMENT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/moment
Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
--
RECOMMENDATION FOR THIS PODCAST:
“Mexico’s Drug Cartels Are Not Competitors to the State” https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/mexicos-drug-cartels-are-not-competitors
--
X / TWITTER:
@SamoBurja
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
--
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:
Cartels' Political Integration: Mexican cartels operate not as insurgencies against the state but as partners with government officials, creating a corrupt patronage system.
Economic Impact: While drug trafficking represents a small percentage of Mexico's economy (0.3% of labor force), it provides significant corrupt revenue for political elites.
Evolution of Cartel Operations: Following marijuana legalization in the U.S., cartels shifted from agriculture (growing marijuana/heroin) to chemistry (producing synthetic drugs like fentanyl).
Border Security Concerns: The porous U.S.-Mexico border currently poses limited direct national security threats but could become problematic during escalating tensions with China or Russia.
Development Challenges: Mexico's extractive elites and corrupt political economy hinder genuine industrialization and development.
Potential Solutions: Successfully industrializing Mexico would require defeating extractive elites and eliminating corruption sources, potentially with U.S. or Chinese investment.
Future Outlook: Latin American countries like Mexico might eventually become more peaceful as populations age, similar to countries like Portugal or Greece. -
Erik Torenberg and economist Noah Smith dissect the Democratic Party's path forward. Smith advocates for fiscal responsibility over progressive rhetoric, refocusing democracy concerns away from voter ID laws toward election integrity, and embracing patriotic messaging instead of identity politics.
Their exchange ventures into Elon Musk's influence on Republican effectiveness, the merits of Japanese bureaucratic models, and building a more competitive political landscape where both parties can harness entrepreneurial talent to implement practical governance solutions.
—
📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
—
SPONSOR: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | INCOGNI | SQUAD
Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code MOMENT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/moment
Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
--
RELATED LINKS:
How the Democrats can fight back against MAGA
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-the-democrats-can-fight-back
Only fools think Elon is incompetent
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/only-fools-think-elon-is-incompetent
—
X / TWITTER:
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
--
HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE
Three Recommendations for Democrats:
Anti-Inflation Strategy: Emphasize fiscally responsible policies, cut deficits, and abandon price controls and MMT rhetoric
Democracy Focus: Focus specifically on election integrity rather than voter ID laws or gerrymandering
Patriotic Messaging: Abandon progressive "America was founded on racism" rhetoric and embrace traditional American values
Tech Leadership Dynamics:
Elon Musk has transformed Republican effectiveness through entrepreneurial approaches
Democrats have alienated tech entrepreneurs through "tech bro" antagonism
Democrats need their own tech-savvy leaders (suggestions included Sam Altman, Marc Benioff, Reid Hoffman)
Biden's Economic Record:
The Inflation Reduction Act was misnamed but had positive industrial policy effects
Biden successfully fought inflation through Fed policy, deficit reduction, and energy production
The administration's effective actions contradicted progressive rhetoric
Project 2025 Critique:
Good intentions but lacks nuanced understanding of government functions
Relies too heavily on right-wing social media ecosystem for information
Would benefit from consulting policy experts at conservative think tanks
Social Media Transformation:
Twitter/X has become narrower and more political under Musk
A more fragmented social media landscape is positive for America
Social platforms naturally polarize along political lines
Alternative Economic Model:
Need for a "third way" beyond neoliberalism
Combine industrial policy, regulatory reforms, and Japanese-style bureaucratic approaches
Emphasize efficient governance over ideological purity
Cultural Observations:
"Situationships" replacing traditional relationships among young people
Free speech principles being abandoned by some Democrats
Increasing education polarization in political alignment -
Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja examine the pervasive fascination with American political dynamics and their far-reaching impact worldwide, especially across Western democracies and European nations. They analyze how digital connectivity has accelerated the harmonization of political discourse and cultural values across borders, while exploring the emerging shifts in European political frameworks that increasingly reflect American ideological patterns and media narratives
—
📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
—
SPONSOR: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | INCOGNI | SQUAD
Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code MOMENT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/moment
Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
—
LINKS:
Two buttons meme: https://ih1.redbubble.net/image.2365085899.3351/st,small,507x507-pad,600x600,f8f8f8.jpg
The Clash of Civilizations: https://www.amazon.com/Clash-Civilizations-Remaking-World-Order/dp/1451628978
Bismark Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
—
X / TWITTER:
@SamoBurja
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
--
HIGHLIGHTS
Global Political Influence
US politics heavily impact Western countries, while Americans know little about other nations' political leaders
Western countries form a connected political unit, using only other Western nations as models
Internet's Unifying Effect
Shared digital platforms have synchronized Western attention and culture more than ever before
Younger Europeans increasingly consume political news in English online rather than in local languages
Political & Cultural Transfer
American political concepts (from trans rights to gun advocacy) spread to Europe
Tension between traditional European media control and Silicon Valley's free speech platforms like X.com
Potential European Transformation
Free speech on social media could trigger significant right-wing political shifts in Europe
Upcoming elections may demonstrate the impact of changing information access
Questions about EU's "democratic deficit" and bureaucratic dominance
Western Alignment
Liberal and conservative international movements both center on US terms and platforms
Military strength contributes significantly to America's cultural influence
Western nations function as a de facto alliance despite having no formal "Western Union" -
This week, Erik Torenberg is joined by Dr. Victor Davis Hanson, classicist, political commentator, and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford. Together they conduct a thought experiment: it's 2030, how can we expect to understand the legacy of Donald Trump, the shifting political landscape in Germany and the rest of Europe, the outcome of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, China's ambitions regarding Taiwan, Israel's strategic challenges, and the future of the Democratic Party?
—
📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
—
SPONSOR: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | INCOGNI | SQUAD
Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code MOMENT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/moment
Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
—
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Official site: https://victorhanson.com/
The Victor Davis Hanson podcast: https://victorhanson.com/podcasts/
Hoover Institution - featured publications and videos: https://www.hoover.org/profiles/victor-davis-hanson
Erik's substack: https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/
—
X / TWITTER:
@VDHanson
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
--
HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:
Reflecting on Trump's Legacy
Trump's Second Term
JD Vance's Future
Ukraine-Russia Conflict
US-Europe Relations
The Future of Europe
China's Ambitions and Taiwan
Israel's Strategic Dilemmas
The Future of the Left -
Erik Torenberg and Jon Askonas talk about the emerging political realignment in tech, specifically how Silicon Valley has shifted away from Democrats. They discuss the "tech right," its relationship with MAGA and "MAHA" (Make America Healthy Again) movements, potential tensions within this new coalition, and how Democrats might respond to their 2024 electoral defeat.
Check out the interviews Erik mentions in this episode:
Ezra Klein on Supply-side Progressivism, Polarization, and What Silicon Valley Misses About Politics: https://open.spotify.com/episode/36vTPPcpisMVXSgq9bnj1w
The Future of Crypto with Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1EeTFGKxYuDojR5kvqpCyt
—
📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
—
SPONSOR: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | INCOGNI | SQUAD
Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. With a unified platform for accounting, financial management, inventory, and HR, NetSuite provides real-time insights and forecasting to help you make quick, informed decisions. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code MOMENT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: http://incogni.com/moment
Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
—
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Jon's recently published pieces:
Tech for Trump: https://www.city-journal.org/article/tech-for-trump
The New Control Society: https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/the-new-control-society
Erik's substack: https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/
—
X / TWITTER:
@JonAskonas
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
--
RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Second Opinion
🎙️ Join Christina Farr, Ash Zenooz and Luba Greenwood as they bring influential entrepreneurs, experts and investors into the ring for candid conversations at the frontlines of healthcare and digital health every week.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0A8NwQE976s32zdBbZw6bv
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/second-opinion-with-christina-farr-ash-zenooz-md-luba/id1759267211
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SecondOpinionwithChristinaFarr
--
HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:
Jon discusses Silicon Valley's shift away from Democrats, pointing to tech leaders like Zuckerberg, Nadella, and Bezos appearing at Trump's inauguration.
The "tech right" is explained as one of three pillars of the new right coalition, alongside MAGA and "MAHA" (Make America Healthy Again).
Jon identifies key factors driving tech's rightward shift: frustration with Democratic regulations affecting crypto, AI, and energy production; COVID governance failures; and cultural issues.
The podcast examines potential tensions within this coalition, particularly around immigration and transhumanism, where tech interests may conflict with MAGA priorities.
Jon analyzes how the new right coalition is united by opposition to "the Cathedral" (establishment institutions) rather than external threats.
They discuss Project 2025 and "DOGE" (Department of Government Efficiency) as attempts to dismantle bureaucracy and bring transparency to government spending.
The conversation explores how Democrats might respond, including moderating on culture war issues and adopting an "abundance agenda." -
This Valentine's Day weekend, we're airing the debut episode of Modern Relationships featuring Varda space founder Delian Asparouhov and repeat M.O.Z. guest Nadia Asparouhova. Delian and Nadia talk about how they make their relationship work, dating in San Francisco, and why overcommunication might do more harm than good.
—
📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
—
SPONSOR: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | INCOGNI | SQUAD
Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. With a unified platform for accounting, financial management, inventory, and HR, NetSuite provides real-time insights and forecasting to help you make quick, informed decisions. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code MOMENT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: http://incogni.com/moment
Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
—
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Nadia's writing: https://nadia.xyz/
Delian's site: https://delian.io/
Erik's substack: https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/
—
X / TWITTER:
@nayafia
@zebulgar
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
--
RECOMMENDED PODCAST:
Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod
--
HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:
Delian and Nadia met in San Francisco, where Delian quickly pushed for commitment while Nadia was initially intrigued but uncertain about his intense personality.
They built their relationship on minimal but direct communication, believing that over-communication can create problems where none exist.
Their careers grew alongside their relationship, with both valuing some shared context in tech while pursuing different interests.
Having their first child changed their dynamic from independence to necessary schedule coordination, though they work to maintain their individual pursuits.
Delian advocates for men having children younger to grow alongside their careers, while Nadia emphasizes women should have time to find themselves first.
The couple balances ambitious careers with family life, seeing their domestic world as an expanding universe rather than a limitation.
They approach conflicts with a "short memory" philosophy, choosing not to overanalyze small issues and accepting that some days will have tension. -
Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja examine how advancing desalination technology could reshape geopolitics and transform landscapes. They discuss how affordable desalination ($0.3 cents per liter) makes large-scale terraforming feasible, potentially enabling countries like Saudi Arabia or Australia to create vast green spaces and support larger populations. The technology's implications extend beyond water security to national development and climate resilience. The essay on desalination originally appeared in The Bismarck Brief - subscribe here: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
—
📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
—
SPONSOR: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | SQUAD
Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. With a unified platform for accounting, financial management, inventory, and HR, NetSuite provides real-time insights and forecasting to help you make quick, informed decisions. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
—
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
The Untapped Potential of Desalination: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/the-untapped-potential-of-desalination
1957, 1978, 2005 Chicken Sizes diagram: https://compote.slate.com/images/4e407854-6360-4172-a85e-d7b8c64fd365.jpg?width=1200
Growth, efficiency, and yield of commercial broilers from 1957, 1978, and 2005: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0032579119385505
Live Players: Can China Power Its Rise?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOei7kZjuZU
Live Players: The Possibility of Human Extinction: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEQEMpxLnGA&t=42s
Bismark Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
--
RECOMMENDED PODCAST:
Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod
—
HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:
Technology Status
Highly efficient: 2.3 kWh per cubic meter
Low production cost: 0.3 cents/liter
Main costs: infrastructure, not energy
Current Usage
Gulf states lead adoption (UAE: 42% of water from desalination)
Viable for moderately developed nations
Transformative Potential
$32B could match Nile River's annual flow
Enables desert terraforming
Could transform Saudi Arabia, Australia, US regions
National Opportunities
Saudi Arabia: $300B for national parks
Australia: Support larger population
Regional development: Turkey, Spain
Strategic Impact
Eliminates water scarcity concerns
Enhances climate resilience
Enables new settlement patterns
Potential tool for political stability -
Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja analyze Curtis Yarvin's arguments about government inefficiency, comparing corporate and state governance structures. The conversation covers how bureaucracies decay over time, China's approach to governance, and Yarvin's influence in shifting Silicon Valley libertarians toward more right-wing positions. They also examine his evolution from a cancelled figure to a mainstream intellectual voice.
—
📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
—
SPONSOR: NOTION | NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | SQUAD
Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod
Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. With a unified platform for accounting, financial management, inventory, and HR, NetSuite provides real-time insights and forecasting to help you make quick, informed decisions. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
—
RECOMMENDED PODCAST:
Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod
—
HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:
Curtis Yarvin's influence on tech-right thinking challenged conventional political discourse through digital platforms.
Corporate efficiency doesn't follow natural selection principles - institutional success requires active leadership rather than market forces alone.
Government accountability and innovation are stifled by bureaucratic gridlock, with catastrophic potential costs to society (exemplified by China's one-child policy).
Mainstream political ideologies (left & right) are more aligned than they appear, suggesting democracy isn't the final stage of political evolution.
Engaging with controversial thinkers like Yarvin reveals important critiques of current systems, even when disagreeing with their proposed solutions.
Societal progress requires harnessing collective energy and maintaining efficient governance structures. -
Today on Moment of Zen, we're bringing you the third episode of "This Won't Last", the newest show from Turpentine.
Keith Rabois, Logan Bartlett, Kevin Ryan, and Zach Weinberg dissect the 2025 political landscape in a spirited discussion of Trump's evolved messaging and surprising tech industry backing. The conversation weaves through immigration policy, corporate political neutrality, and market dynamics - from Silicon Valley's rightward shift to urban crime challenges and insurance markets and explores how America's tech-policy nexus is reshaping in real-time.
—
📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
—
SPONSOR: NOTION | NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | SQUAD
Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod
Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. With a unified platform for accounting, financial management, inventory, and HR, NetSuite provides real-time insights and forecasting to help you make quick, informed decisions. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
—
RECOMMENDED PODCAST:
Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod
—
HIGHLIGHTS:
2024 Election Results
Analysis of Trump's victory and polling accuracy
Impact of inflation on voter behavior
Discussion of electoral trends and campaign dynamics
Tech Industry Political Evolution
Shift in tech leadership support for Trump administration
Energy and regulatory policy influences
Corporate political donations trends
Workplace Politics
Corporate stance on political issues
Employee activism and company responses
Evolution of DEI initiatives
New York Public Safety
Crime statistics analysis
Impact of bail reform
Mental health policy challenges
Law enforcement strategies
California Natural Disasters
Insurance market responses
Property rebuilding regulations
Market pricing dynamics in crisis situations
Healthcare Regulation
State licensing restrictions
Market inefficiencies
Professional interest group influence -
As China surges past the combined manufacturing might of Western democracies, economists Scott Sumner and Noah Smith square off on America's industrial future. While agreeing on economic fundamentals, they clash over the gravity of China's rise - Sumner advocating measured engagement while Smith warns of an unprecedented shift in global power requiring bold policy action.
—
📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
—
SPONSOR: ORACLE | NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK
☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine/
Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. With a unified platform for accounting, financial management, inventory, and HR, NetSuite provides real-time insights and forecasting to help you make quick, informed decisions. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen
Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world.
—
RECOMMENDED PODCAST:
Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod
—
HIGHLIGHTS:
Core Agreement Areas:
Both are skeptical of partisan justifications for industrial policy (Democrats' "good jobs" focus and Republicans' "America First" stance)
Both agree liberalization, not industrial policy, drove China's rapid growth
Climate Change & Green Tech:
Sumner argues Biden's green subsidies were undermined by trade barriers against Chinese EVs/solar
Smith counters that China's industrial policy in green tech has actually helped global climate goals by scaling production and reducing costs
Central Point of Disagreement - China Threat:
Sumner sees Russia as the bigger immediate threat and warns against needlessly antagonizing China
Smith argues we've entered a new era where China's manufacturing dominance (especially in military-relevant technologies like drones and batteries) fundamentally threatens democratic nations
Biden vs Trump Policy Results:
Both criticize Trump's tariffs as ineffective
Smith points to success of Biden's CHIPS Act and IRA in boosting domestic manufacturing of critical technologies
Sumner suggests many industrial policies are based on misconceptions about macroeconomics
Manufacturing Strategy:
Sumner advocates addressing trade deficits through fiscal policy and savings rates
Smith emphasizes the need to maintain manufacturing parity in specific dual-use technologies
They differ on whether total manufacturing capacity or specific industrial capabilities matter more for national security -
Editor of Arena magazine Maxwell Meyer and pseudonymous writer Indian Bronson join Erik Torenberg for part 3 of the immigration series. They discuss the evolving dynamics between Trump's tech and MAGA supporters, cutting through online drama to examine how both sides might find common ground on immigration, talent, and America's future.
This is part 3 to Bronson's earlier Moment of Zen episodes, Debating Immigration Policy and Bronson vs Everyone: H-1B Wars, Elon, and Trump
—
📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
—
SPONSOR: NETSUITE | ORACLE
Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. With a unified platform for accounting, financial management, inventory, and HR, NetSuite provides real-time insights and forecasting to help you make quick, informed decisions. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.
☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine/
—
RECOMMENDED PODCAST:
Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod
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RELATED LINKS:
Debating Immigration Policy: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4xR2aTcekJ60GFgTXMKGy4?si=DjML853wSLOUTmWAyqgv9g
Everyone: H-1B Wars, Elon, and Trump: https://open.spotify.com/episode/79JNQHaxTKEfhkWL1pT1NH?si=NqEewJYuTlqoYDqpfxChhw
Indian Bronson Substack: https://indianbronson.substack.com/
Max Meyer's Arena Magazine: https://arenamag.com/
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X / TWITTER:
@mualphaxi (Max Meyer)
@Indian_Bronson (Indian Bronson)
@eriktorenberg (Erik)
@turpentinemedia
@MOZ_Podcast
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HIGHLIGHTS:
I. Tech/Nationalist Right Conflict & Alliance
Online clash over immigration policy.
Debate on whether the tech/nationalist alliance is genuine or just expedient.
Core agreement on stopping illegal immigration, but disagreements on legal routes.
II. Trump & Immigration
Trump's long-held views on attracting high-skilled talent.
Discussion of H1B visa program abuse and potential reforms.
Trump's stance as pro-legal immigration, but anti-illegal immigration.
III. Key Themes
Online vs. reality: online debates are often more extreme.
Trump & Musk: Similarities in their hands-on approach and detail-oriented style.
Power: Elon Musk’s unique influence in the Trump orbit.
Critique of "Hick Lib" politicians like Tim Walz, and his inauthenticity.
IV. Predictions
Democrats likely to do well in 2026 House elections.
Focus on deportations under Trump.
Continued alliance between Trump and Musk.
V. Nuances of Immigration Debate
Discussion on the usefulness of Country Caps.
Unintended consequences of affirmative action.
Welfare differences between US and Europe.
The importance of high-skilled immigration to economic growth, with caveats.
VI. Closing Thoughts
Real conversation between powerful people took place.
Emphasis on balancing economic benefits with the idea of America as a nation with shared history.
Emphasis on trusting figures like Trump, J.D. Vance and those around them. - もっと表示する
