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Joseph Wang of FedGuy.com returns to Monetary Matters to share his view that markets are insufficiently discounting the large and significant tariffs that the Trump Administration will implement shortly. Joseph and Jack also review the January Fed meeting, with Joseph noting that Fed chair Powell might be significantly more dovish than the FOMC committee. Joseph explains why he is bearish on stocks and bullish on bonds and gold (and short-term interest rates). Recorded on January 30, 2025.
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Joseph’s website: https://fedguy.com/
Pieces discussed:
“The Plan”: https://fedguy.com/the-plan/
“It is a Good Day to Tariff”: https://fedguy.com/it-is-a-good-day-to-tariff/
“Shifting Flows”: https://fedguy.com/shifting-flows/
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Former fund manager and short seller Russell Clark has always believed that the key to adding value for investors is to solve for the biggest risks in their portfolios. He also argues it’s the key to successfully raising hedge fund assets. In this interview, Clark discusses the biggest risks he thinks investors face right now, why these risks have him considering relaunching his hedge fund after returning capital in 2021, and why if he does relaunch, he’s inverting the long short hedge fund model.
You can read Russell's Substack here: https://www.russell-clark.com
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Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell updated investors on the key factors driving interest rate policy at the same time as another perhaps even bigger factor, the future of AI, is rocking markets. Jack & Max breakdown Powell’s press conference, the data points to watch, and the AI elephant in the room.
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Mark Zandi, Chief Economist for Moody’s Analytics, joins monetary matters to discuss his outlook for the US economy and why he thinks higher yields driven by broad based tariffs are the biggest risk to the US economy. Despite the economic strength he still sees he believes recession risk is elevated, and this risk is being driven primarily by policy uncertainty. He also discusses the GSEs, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and why he thinks most paths to exiting conservatorship create a lot of pain for the mortgage market.
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Listen to Mark’s Podcast “Inside Economics”: https://www.moodys.com/web/en/us/about/insights/podcasts/moodys-talks-inside-economics.html -
David Steinberg, founder and chief investment officer of Marlowe Partners, joins Jack for a very special episode of Monetary Matters. Steinberg recounts what he learned working for Soros and Scott Bessent at Quantum, and how he developed his investment style of high concentration in single-name equities. David and Jack talk Humanization of Pets, semis, music publishing, and David’s secret pastime which he reveals for the first time on this program. Recorded on January 23, 2025.
Peter Lake philosophy: https://www.peterlake.com/philosophy-of-music
Peter Lake on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/artist/2LO6MZ0w06BnfgIfoJHIe6
Peter Lake on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@PeterLakeMusic
Marlowe Partners: https://marlowepartners.com/
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This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about VanEck Uranium & Nuclear ETF: http://vaneck.com/NLRJack
Louis Vincent Gave, Founding Partner & Chief Executive Officer at Gavekal, joins Monetary Matters to share his perspective on China in 2025 and beyond. Recorded on January 20, 2025.
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Arthur Kroeber book, “China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know”: https://www.amazon.com/Chinas-Economy-Everyone-Needs-Know%C2%AE/dp/0190239034
Louis Vincent Gave’s book, “Avoiding the Punch: Investing in Uncertain Times”: https://www.amazon.com/Avoiding-Punch-Investing-Uncertain-Times-ebook/dp/B09VHDBXYL/ref=sr_1_7?dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.W_PznDbWJKTl-zd_BOIBZNrHLa30eAYoCsZGe1ZpZwRhjIip7Xd8SpCuG-DD3aQbL5eMVpAPzCxO34wzVfJLqNyukXrF4ZKT-K_L6rUFfas.Uiti9KCVO588GfCFlmEf0BbhZ2deqYObl4DW-bw2l_A&dib_tag=se&qid=1737553285&refinements=p_27%3ALouis-Vincent+Gave&s=books&sr=1-7 -
Almost everyone who works in finance dreams of one day showcasing their trading or investing prowess by starting their own hedge fund, but being a good trader is only one line item in a long list of skills required to be a successful hedge fund manager. Benn Eifert, Managing Partner of QVR Advisors, who himself has built his firm into one that manages $2 billion in assets, discusses the important interpersonal skills, operational considerations, and marketing duties that also fall squarely on the shoulders of the founding portfolio manager. Eifert also touches on why pod shops have been so dominant in attracting both assets and talent, his outlook for single managers and the hedge fund industry, and the growth of listed fund products using options and other derivatives.
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Follow Benn Eifert on Twitter: https://x.com/bennpeifert -
There are always many narratives about what drives markets higher or lower but increasingly investors are turning to quantitative measures like style factors to decouple the signal from the noise and pinpoint what is actually behind major market moves. In this interview, Chris Carrano VP of Strategic Research at Venn by Two Sigma breaks down the orthogonal market factors that drove asset prices in 2024 and what is driving them so far in 2025. He also examines key moments like the post Trump rally in November, December’s equity market wobble post FOMC, and the recent reaction to cooling CPI data. Filmed on January 17, 2025.
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Read the Venn by Two Sigma Blog: https://www.venn.twosigma.com/insights -
This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about VanEck Uranium & Nuclear ETF: http://vaneck.com/NLRJack
Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Visit vaneck.com or call 800.826.2333 to read and consider the prospectus, containing the investment objective, risks, and fees of the fund. Carefully read before investing.
© Van Eck Securities Corporation, Distributor, a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation
Luke Gromen, Founder & President, Forest for the Trees (FFTT), joins Monetary Matters to share his thoughts on the rapidly selling off Treasury market and strong U.S. Dollar. Recorded on January 13, 2025.
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If you weren’t in large and often expensive technology stocks you likely struggled as a hedge fund manager in 2024. For small/mid-cap value investors like Kyle Mowery, Portfolio Manager and Founder of Grizzly Rock Capital, who’ve sold their investors a mandate that makes it nearly impossible to go buy the NVIDIAs of the world you can only fall back on communication and the clear expectations you’ve set with your investors. The problems plaguing small cap value managers are not new though, and if you are still practicing what Mowery calls “the old ways,” 2024 was likely not the first tough year you’ve had to explain. Here, Mowery explains how he’s adjusted his strategy over 13 years of existence to adapt to changing market structure, why he thinks of you have skills joining a pod is better than starting your own fund, and things he would do differently if he was setting up Grizzly Rock in 2025.
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Find more on Grizzly Rock Capital here: https://www.grizzlyrockcapital.com/ -
Steve Hou, Researcher at Bloomberg Indices, joins Monetary Matters to share his work on Treasury Issuance patterns and equity index construction. Hou explains that “the supply effect” (i.e. the degree to which issuance of long-term bonds rises bond yields is related to stock/bond correlation). He shares several findings from his work on indices related to pricing power, research and development (R&D), and other factors, and at the end he offers his macro views on bond yields and the increasingly concentrated stock market. Recorded on January 7, 2025.
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Chapter 1 of Steve’s dissertation (“When is the supply effect large in the government bond market?”): https://finance.unibocconi.eu/sites/default/files/files/media/attachments/SteveHou_JMP20180115111812.pdf
Steve’s work on the innovation factor (R&D): https://t.co/VSSpiUExWL
Steve’s work on pricing power: https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/insights/financial-services/cracking-the-code-of-pricing-power/
Work on Analyst ratings upgrades: https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/insights/trading/analyst-ratings-improvers-a-bet-on-turnaround-companies/ -
Jack Farley and Max Wiethe of the Monetary Matters network break down the sell-off in stocks after a strong December jobs report and hot inflation expectations reading surprises markets. Recorded afternoon of January 10.
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Philadelphia Fed work on early : https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/economy/articles/economic-insights/2022/q3-q4/eiq3q422_rs-measuring-state-employment.pdf
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/early-benchmark-revisions
Bloomberg Opinion piece on Equity Risk Premia:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-01-10/who-s-afraid-of-rising-treasury-yields-not-stocks?srnd=opinion -
Mel Mattison, investor, monetary theorist, and former fintech executive, joins Monetary Matters to share how he’s thinking about the next few years for the financial system. Stunned that Mel’s “6,000 by year-end 2024” prediction actually happened, Jack asks Mel why he now expects a violent correction in early 2025 while at the same time extending his S&P 500 forecast to the stunningly high 15,000 level by the end of 2028. They also discuss Bretton Woods 2.0, incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, potential revaluation of gold, and several advanced monetary topics. Recorded December 30, 2024.
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Mel Mattison’s website https://www.melmattison.com/
Mel Mattison’s book “Quoz”: https://www.melmattison.com/quoz -
When was the last time you heard about an exciting new mutual fund launch? It’s probably been a while. Despite ETFs, hedge funds, and burgeoning asset classes like private credit taking all the headlines, mutual funds still control over $20 trillion in AUM. So, how does one raise assets in the 2020s with a product many associate with a time gone by? Eric Crittenden, CIO and Founder of Stand Point Asset Management, joins OPM to share how his mutual fund has done just that and reached over $1 billion in AUM in less than 5 years.
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Jason Cave, Senior Consultant at Potomak Global Partners, has over 30 years in bank and financial regulatory experience having worked at both the FDIC and FHFA. In this interview, Cave explains why he’s expecting a much better environment for banks of all sizes in the new regulatory regime under Trump. He discusses why he thinks the FDIC will finally open up bank M&A, the Basel III Endgame will be at least paused, and what he thinks of the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
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Citrini just raised the price of Citrini Research by 25%. Monetary Matters listeners can get access to the LOWER 2024 pricing with this link (offer expires February 15):
https://www.citriniresearch.com/subscribe?coupon=d11a5439
The cross-asset thematic investor known only as Citrini returns to Monetary Matters. James reflects on his trades of 2024 in his “Citrindex” which was up 65% in 202 (January 1, 2024 to December 23, 2024). Citrini shares excerpts from his “25 trades for 2025” piece at Citrini Research, covering everything from homebuilders, to drones, to Ukraine normalization trades and power capacitors. Recorded Christmas Eve December 24, 2024.
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Follow Citrini on Twitter https://x.com/Citrini7 -
With the end of year approaching and SOFR/IOR spreads widening, Darrell Duffie, renowned and prolific monetary scholar, joins Monetary Matters to share his views on why liquidity strains often appear at quarter- and year-end. Duffie explains his work on the September 2019 repo blowout and shares his findings that timing of bank payments is a better predictor of SOFR/IOR stress than the SOFR/IOR spread itself. Duffie also shares his views on debt-to-GDP levels, the theory that the Treasury has engaged in “stealth QE,” and the impact of SOFR transition on bank funding costs. Recorded on December 27, 2024.
Duffie Piece On Reserves Discussed For Most Of Interview (“Reserves Were Not So Ample After All”): https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr974
Duffie Piece on SOFR vs. LIBOR impact on bank debt-overhang cost (discussed at end, “Bank Funding Risk, Reference Rates, and Credit Supply”): https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr1042
Darrell Duffie’s website https://www.darrellduffie.com/
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Having raised over $450m in less than 6 months, Warren Pies, Founder of 3Fourteen Research and Portfolio Manager of $FCTE, has had one of the most successful independent ETF launches of all time. Despite the seemingly overnight success of his fund management business, the real story is about the steady growth of his research business that feeds into everything they do. He explains how his research business has become a pipeline of investor interest in his ETF business and how research relationships flip the traditional client interaction on its head. He also discusses why he chose to focus on setting good expectations with reasonable clients rather than playing the flashy retail newsletter game.
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Today’s episode is brought to you by the Teucrium Wheat Fund. War, weather, inflation—even monetary policy—drive wheat prices. See disclaimers below. Explore the opportunities at: https://bit.ly/Teucrium
Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital joins Jack on Monetary Matters to share his outlook on global liquidity from three sources: central banks, cross border flows, and the private sector. Howell expects the liquidity cycle to peak in late 2025 / early 2026 and says "enjoy the party but dance near the door." Recorded on December 19, 2024.
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Follow Michael Howell (CrossBorder Capital) on Twitter https://x.com/crossbordercap
CrossBorder’s Website: https://www.crossbordercapital.com/
“Capital Wars” Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/
“Capital Wars” the book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392872
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96
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Disclaimers for Teucrium sponsorship:
This material must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. To obtain a current prospectus visit www.teucrium.com. The Teucrium Wheat Fund is a commodity pool regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is not a mutual fund registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 and is not subject to regulation under such Act. Commodities and futures generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors.
Futures investing is highly speculative and involves a high degree of risk. An investor may lose all or substantially all of an investment in the Fund. Investing in commodity interest subject the Fund to the risk of its related industry. Brokerage commissions and exchange-traded fund expenses will reduce returns.
Teucrium Trading, LLC serves as the Sponsor of the Teucrium Wheat Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is the Marketing Agent for the Fund, and is not affiliated with Teucrium Trading, LLC, or any of its affiliates. -
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of QI Research, joins Monetary Matters to share her views on the December Federal Reserve FOMC meeting and her outlook on markets and the U.S. economy in 2025. DiMartino doubles down on her call that the U.S. economy is already in a recession, and explains why she thinks on January 29 2025 will be the day that the true weakness of the job market will be revealed. Recorded on December 19, 2024.
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QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/
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