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Both consumer and corporate structured finance obligors will benefit from falling interest rates and moderate economic growth, although high costs will keep straining some borrowers’ finances. In this episode, we’ll discuss other factors contributing to the Moody’s Ratings outlook for the sector in the year ahead.
Host: Aaron Johnson, Vice President – Research Writer
Guest: Annabel Schaafsma, Managing Director, Global Structured Finance
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As regulators bolster copyright protections amid widening artificial intelligence use in the music industry, music royalty ABS issuers and other copyright holders will benefit from the protections.
Speaker: Giyora Eiger, VP-Sr Credit Officer at Moody's Ratings
Host: Aaron Johnson, VP-Senior Research Writer at Moody's Ratings
Related Research:
Music Royalty ABS and Music Companies – US: Protecting voices and copyrights from AI misuse will aid ABS and music companies -
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High rates and inflation will continue threatening consumers’ ability to pay their debts in some regions in the coming months, but solid job growth will temper the negative effect on performance.
Speakers: Nick Monzillo, VP-Senior Analyst at Moody's Ratings; Gaby Trinkaus, Senior VP/Manager at Moody's Ratings; Gracie Zhou, VP-Senior Analyst at Moody's Ratings
Host: Aaron Johnson, VP-Senior Research Writer at Moody's Ratings
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The use of artificial intelligence in collateral underwriting comes with both benefits and risks to structured finance transactions, while jurisdictions take different approaches to AI regulation.
Speakers: Peter McNally, VP-Sr Credit Officer at Moody's Ratings; Johann Grieneisen, VP-Senior Analyst at Moody's Ratings
Host: Aaron Johnson, VP-Senior Research Writer at Moody's Ratings
Related Research:
Artificial Intelligence - Structured Finance: AI used in asset origination brings benefits, risks and regulatory scrutiny -
As the regulatory environment continues to evolve, US and European banks have sought regulatory capital relief by offloading the credit risk of loans they make via special types of transactions.
Guests: Warren Kornfeld, Senior Vice President at Moody's Ratings; Nick Monzillo, VP-Senior Analyst at Moody's Ratings; Frank Cerveny, VP-Senior Research Analyst at Moody's Ratings
Host: Aaron Johnson, VP-Senior Research Writer at Moody's Ratings
Related reports:
Auto ABS - US: Credit-linked notes include risks not seen in typical auto ABS; issuance is risingBanks and Structured Finance – US: Risk transfer gives banks protection, but more capital is better; ABS implications varyBanks and Structured Finance – Europe: Output floor proposal could erode benefits of SRT for regulatory capital and risk management purposes -
Should European non-bank direct lenders turn to collateralized loan obligation financing, transaction collateral will likely reflect the wide range of borrowers to which private credit lenders cater.
Speakers: Sean Marion, MD-EMEA Structured Finance at Moody's Ratings; Shan Lai, VP-Senior Analyst at Moody's Ratings
Host: Aaron Johnson, VP-Senior Research Writer at Moody's Ratings
Related research:
Robust structures will mitigate heightened collateral risks in private credit CLOsEscalating private credit competition will increase risk and scrutiny
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Basel 3.1 reforms will lead banks to apply high haircuts to unsustainably high property values and adjust mortgage risk weights to better differentiate between low-risk and high-risk loans.
Speakers: Alexander Zeidler, VP-Sr Credit Officer at Moody's Ratings; Guillaume Lucien-Baugas, VP-Senior Analyst at Moody's Ratings
Hosts: Aaron Johnson, VP-Senior Research Writer at Moody's Ratings; Danielle Reed, VP-Senior Research Writer at Moody's Ratings
Related Research:
Basel 3.1 will reduce risk of boom and bust property cycles, boost private credit marketRising interest rates will weaken commercial property values and raise refinancing riskExplanatory comment – Haircuts smooth CRE values through the property market cycle -
Recent cyberattacks on three mortgage servicers did not hurt rated residential mortgage-backed security performance, but show how disrupted operations can affect structured finance transactions.
Speakers: Peter McNally, VP-Sr Credit Officer at Moody's Ratings; Frank Wissman, VP-Senior Analyst at Moody's Ratings
Host: Aaron Johnson, VP-Senior Research Writer at Moody's Ratings
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As solar panels become more common in Europe, the first solar loan asset-backed security becomes more likely. But while the asset class is new, many associated risks are familiar to ABS investors.
Speakers: Armin Krapf, VP-Sr Credit Officer at Moody's Investors Service; Pedro Sancholuz Ruda, VP-Sr Credit Officer at Moody's Investors Service
Host: Aaron Johnson, Vice President – Research at Moody’s Investors Service
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Interest rate hikes in the wake of the pandemic have driven an increase in commercial real estate delinquencies, but a variety of factors help mitigate many refinancing and other performance risks.
Speakers: Alexander Zeidler, VP-Sr Credit Officer at Moody's Investors Service; Brian Snow, VP-Sr Credit Officer at Moody's Investors Service; Darrell Wheeler, VP-Sr Credit Officer at Moody's Investors Service
Host: Aaron Johnson, Vice President – Research at Moody’s Investors Service
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High interest rates will weigh on collateral performance in 2024 as structured finance markets adjust to structural shifts, regulatory reforms and geopolitical polarization.
Speaker: Annabel Schaafsma, Global Head of Structured Finance at Moody's Investors Service
Host: Aaron Johnson, Vice President – Research at Moody’s Investors Service
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Home price growth has stalled in most major economies globally. However, despite rising wages, housing affordability is weakening after record or near-record house price appreciation in recent years.
Speakers: Rodrigo Conde Puentes, VP-Senior Analyst; Darrell Wheeler, VP-Sr Credit Officer; Si Chen, Analyst
Host: Aaron Johnson, Vice President – Research, Moody’s Investors Service
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Asset-backed securities exposed to small and medium-sized enterprises remain among the transactions most vulnerable to continued slow economic growth around the globe. How has economic weakness eroded collateral performance thus far and what do we expect for the rest of 2023?
Guests: Sandie Zhang, Analyst – Structured Finance, Moody’s Investors Service; Monica Curti, Vice President – Structured Finance, Moody’s Investors Service; Daniel Gan, Analyst – Structured Finance, Moody’s Investors Service.
Host: Aaron Johnson, Vice President – Research, Moody’s Investors Service.
To read more on this topic, visit Securitization Spotlight page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).
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Multifamily commercial real estate has performed well of late in both the US and Europe, but will that continue amid high rates and increased scrutiny on buildings energy efficiency?
Guests: Darrell Wheeler, Head of CMBS Research – Structured Finance, Moody’s Investors Service; Brian Snow, Vice President – Structured Finance, Moody’s Investors Service.
Host: Aaron Johnson, Vice President – Research, Moody’s Investors Service.
To read more on this topic, visit Securitization Spotlight page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).
Related Links:
CRE fortunes vary by lender and property type, with office facing multiple risksCredit quality erosion to continue as refinancing becomes more difficultSector Update – Q2 2023: Physical office occupancy recovering, but values are downMoody's DQT - Office and hotel conduit/fusion DQT increase sharply in June 2023 -
With Libor’s demise imminent, how prepared are US CLOs to move on from the long-time benchmark?
Guest: Peter Hallenbeck, Vice President, Senior Officer Legal Review – Structured Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service
Host: Aaron Johnson, Vice President – Research, Moody’s Investors Service
To read more on this topic, visit Securitization Spotlight page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).
Related Research:
Private Credit – Cross Region: Middle-market CLOs, BDCs and closed-end funds: structures lead to divergent credit risks -
Moody’s analysts David Burger, Mark Wasden and Neal Epstein explain how differences in structure and asset risk give rise to divergent credit profiles among the three investment vehicles.
Speakers: David Burger, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Mark Wasden, Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors Service; Neal Epstein, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors Service
Hosts: Aaron Johnson, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service
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As climate change intensifies, how are utility companies using securitization to recover costs related to unforeseen developments like major storms and other natural disasters? And how is the market for these transactions evolving?
Guests: Inga Smolyar, Vice President – Structured Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service, Tracy Rice, Vice President – Structured Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service, Natividad Martel, Vice President – Public Project and Infrastructure Finance Group, and Matthew Kuchtyak, Vice President – Sustainable Finance Group.
Host: Aaron Johnson, Vice President – Research, Moody’s Investors Service.
To read more on this topic, visit Securitization Spotlight page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).
Related Research:
As extreme weather events and net-zero efforts rise, ABS will lower utility credit riskInflation-tied social risk remains low for UCRC ABS despite its rise for utilitiesSecond Party Opinion – SCE Recovery Funding LLC's Series 2023-A Assigned SQS2 Sustainability Quality Score 2023 Outlook - Despite weak economy, strong demand for assets will uphold deal credit quality and performance -
Jerome Cheng and Tengfu Li discuss how China’s economic rebound will support residential mortgage-backed securities and a handful of Asia-Pacific banking systems with close ties to the country.
Speakers: Tengfu Li, AVP – Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Jerome Cheng, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s Investors Service
Hosts: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Aaron Johnson, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service
Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users or subscribers):
RMBS – China: Economic rebound, low rates and policy support are positive for mortgage borrowersBanks – Asia-Pacific: China's reopening will benefit only a few banking systems in Asia-Pacific -
Structured finance transactions are exposed to recent banking stresses in the US and Europe at both the collateral and counterparty levels. But will that impact be material? And what kinds of protections do transaction structures provide?
Guests: Edward Manchester, Senior Vice President – Structured Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service, and Amy Tobey, Senior Vice President – Structured Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service.
Host: Aaron Johnson, Vice President – Research, Moody’s Investors Service.
To read more on this topic, visit Securitization Spotlight page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).
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