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As tensions continue to mount in the U.S.-China relationship, concerns have grown among U.S. political and military leaders regarding China's defense spending, which is often said to be significantly higher than it actually is. In a new report, M. Taylor Fravel, George Gilboy, and Eric Heginbotham argue that the estimate that China’s military spending has surged to $700 billion depends on flawed assumptions and miscalculations. The claim has gained traction in various circles, including in the U.S. Congress and the media, where some suggest China’s military budget is comparable to that of the United States.
In an interview conducted on October 9, 2024, M. Taylor Fravel, George Gilboy, and Eric Heginbotham, in conversation with Maryanne Kivlehan-Wise, discuss the implications of overestimating China’s defense spending and offer alternative methods to gauge China’s spending more accurately.
About the speakers
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The fentanyl crisis is a serious public health and security issue, particularly in the United States, with its high number of overdose deaths. Chinese entities play a significant role in the fentanyl supply chain, from chemical precursors to money laundering. While efforts to regulate production in China have been inconsistent, Beijing’s recent move to restrict fentanyl-related chemicals, after years of U.S. pressure, shows potential cooperation ahead of the U.S. election.
In an interview conducted on October 8, 2024, Zongyuan Zoe Liu and Rick Waters, in conversation with Tobias Smith, explore the critical intersection of the U.S. fentanyl crisis and its impact on U.S.-China relations, particularly in the context of the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election.
About the speakers: https://www.ncuscr.org/event/fentanyl-and-us-china-relations-in-2024/
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Within the first two weeks of October 2024, Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton ravaged parts of the United States’ east coast. Notable natural disasters are increasing in frequency and ferocity across both the United States and China, highlighting the urgent need for solutions. Amid the global climate crisis, the capability of artificial intelligence in cutting-edge fields such as extreme weather forecasting and self-driving electric vehicles (EVs) is advancing at an unprecedented rate, showcasing its remarkable potential to address climate issues. What are the challenges in balancing rapid AI development with environmental sustainability? How are the United States and China addressing these concerns?
Kevin Xu joins the National Committee in an interview recorded September 2024 to offer in-depth insights into how China and the United States are utilizing AI technology to address critical climate challenges and potential opportunities for future collaboration.
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COVID-19 and U.S.-China Relations examines the profound and lasting impact of COVID-19 on Sino-American relations. It covers an array of areas including public health, trade and supply chain challenges, people-to-people connections, shifts in public opinion, rising nationalism, anti-Asian sentiment, and strategic assessments. Since the pandemic’s outbreak in late 2019, China and the United States have both suffered enormously. So too has the U.S.-China relationship, which was already at a low point before COVID-19 accelerated its deterioration. With contributions by leading and emerging scholars from both nations, the open-access volume reflects a collaborative effort, emphasizing the importance of bilateral dialogue. As the world moves beyond the COVID era, this book offers insights into potential pathways for rebuilding and redefining U.S.-China relations.
In an interview conducted on September 26, 2024, volume editor Zheng Wang is joined by chapter contributors Yanzhong Huang and Joan Kaufman in conversation with Margaret Lewis.
About the speakers: https://www.ncuscr.org/event/covid-19-and-u-s-china-relations/
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What is a traditional Chinese farmhouse doing in West Virginia? Rather than allow the historic home to be demolished, Dr. John flower and a team of Chinese and U.S. volunteers moved the house over eight thousand miles from China to the United States. China Folk House rebuilt the traditional Yunnan-style home in West Virginia with over 22 thousand hours of volunteer labor from community members and students. China Folk House aims to serve as a cultural exchange project, connecting U.S. and Chinese rural communities in cultural exchange, as well as spreading and preserving knowledge of local issues and traditional practices.
In an interview recorded on August 30, 2024, John Flower discusses his vision for the China Folk House project and its purpose to bridge rural communities in West Virginia and Yunnan through architecture and craftsmanship.
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To overcome “brain drain,” some countries encourage their overseas nationals to use the knowledge they gained abroad to help their motherlands. Since the mid-1990s, China’s party-state efforts include a wide array of programs and incentives to encourage overseas talent to transfer their knowledge back home. Many Chinese working abroad participate, some to strengthen their former homeland, others from self-interest. Author David Zweig's new book, The War for Chinese Talent in America: The Politics of Technology and Knowledge in Sino-U.S. Relations, documents China’s effort to access U.S. technology and America’s vigorous counterattacks and efforts to disrupt the transfer of American technology to China.
In an interview conducted on September 10, 2024, David Zweig, in conversation with Yangyang Cheng, explores the status of Sino-American scientific collaboration and the outflow of some top Chinese talent from the United States back to China.
About the speakers: https://www.ncuscr.org/event/the-war-for-chinese-talent-in-america/
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In both the United States and Canada, geopolitical tensions with China have given rise to domestic suspicions and even legal restrictions on Chinese communities. Both nations have a history of discriminatory laws and policies that excluded Chinese communities, leaving a legacy of anti-Asian sentiment that persists today. Recent events, including the spike in anti-Asian racism during the COVID-19 pandemic and laws prohibiting Chinese nationals from purchasing property in some U.S. states, echo these historical patterns of exclusion and discrimination.
In an interview recorded on August 13, 2024, Henry Yu explores the relevance of historic Chinese migration on the Pacific coast to contemporary geopolitics, and how acknowledging this shared past can help foster more informed discussions on race and immigration in North America.
About the speaker: https://www.ncuscr.org/video/chinese-immigration-canada-us/
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The 2020 United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) established barrier-free trade among the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Several Chinese private-sector companies have set up manufacturing companies in Mexico that sell to the United States, thereby hoping to work around U.S. tariffs on Chinese-made products. As Chinese companies move production lines to Mexico, the United States grows more concerned about Chinese dominance in the global market. One prominent case study is in the electric vehicle (EV) market: Chinese EV manufacturers, which originally faced high tariffs in the U.S. market, are building up their manufacturing capacity in Mexico. The growing presence of comparatively cheaper Chinese EV materials in the U.S. market could present a threat to the future of U.S. EV companies.
In this interview recorded on September 3, 2024, join Meg Rithmire as she interviews Jorge Guajardo and Michael Dunne about the U.S.-China-Mexico economic relationship and its significance to the global electric vehicle market.
About the speakers: https://www.ncuscr.org/event/made-in-china-us-mexico-china-ev/
Follow Jorge Guajardo on X: @jorge_guajardo
Follow Michael Dunne on X: @dunne_insights
Follow Meg Rithmire on X: @MegRithmire
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75% of China's over $1.1 trillion loans to low- and middle-income countries will have entered their repayment period by 2030. How will this debt be dealt with? The goals of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have evolved since its inception in 2013 and so have environmental protection standards and public opinion relating to BRI projects. How has the BRI navigated through existing and impending issues? How does China address scrutiny over the BRI's environmental and social protections, debt repayment setbacks, and other challenges?
In an interview recorded on July 8, 2024, Ammar A. Malik, senior research scientist at AidData, joins the National Committee to review the evolution of the Belt and Road Initiative’s goals and the future of the BRI.
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The U.S.-China Science and Technology Cooperation Agreement (STA), signed in 1979, was the first major bilateral agreement between the United States and China. Since then, it has been renewed multiple times and has facilitated China’s integration into the global economy. However, experts agree that the agreement no longer reflects China’s expanded scientific and technological (S&T) capacity, nor does it address U.S. concerns about China’s S&T practices and policies. After two six month extensions approved by President, the STA expired on August 27th, 2024.
In an interview conducted on August 21, 2024, Scott Moore speaks with Yasheng Huang and Deborah Seligsohn about current U.S.-China scientific collaboration, the legacy of the STA, and the potential future of an STA 2.0.
About the speakers: https://www.ncuscr.org/event/chinese-migrants-at-the-border/
Follow Deborah Seligsohn on X: @DebSeligsohn
Follow Yasheng Huang on X: @YashengHuang
Follow Scott Moore on X: @water_futures
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The United States and China are racing towards AI dominance. Many people don't know that artists and writers are at the forefront of shaping the legal future of AI. As both U.S. and Chinese AI tools grow ever-more sophisticated, courtrooms in both countries are left to decide legal boundaries on intellectual property issues. However, with AI's rapid development and an increasing focus on data security, blind spots in AI policy will continue to loom over not only artists and content creators but the future of U.S.-China tech relations. How will differing approaches to AI regulation in the United States and China shape both ordinary users and the future of AI?
In an interview recorded on August 15, 2024, Johanna Costigan joins the National Committee to discuss AI policy divergence and cooperation opportunities in the United States and China.
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In 2023, U.S. border officials arrested over 37,000 Chinese nationals at the southern border, ten times as many as the previous year. The trend is so pronounced that “walking the line” (走线), as the journey from Central/South America to the U.S. southern border is known on Chinese social media, has become a buzzword in Chinese society. The resulting influx of Chinese migrants into the United States has drawn the attention of mainstream U.S. media, prompting calls for policymakers to act. The Department of Homeland Security announced on July 2, 2024, that it had sent 116 Chinese migrants back to China from the United States in the first “large charter flight” in five years, and will continue to work with China on future removal flights.
In a conversation moderated by Meredith Oyen on August 13, 2024, Gil Guerra and Leland Lazarus shared information about the issues surrounding current Chinese migrants and discussed the U.S. policy responses.
About the speakers: https://www.ncuscr.org/event/chinese-migrants-at-the-border/
Follow Gil Guerra on X: @gildeguerra
Follow Leland Lazarus on X: @LelandLazarus
Follow Meredith Oyen on X: @MeredithOyen
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In 1996, when Peter Hessler first went to China to teach, almost all of his students were first-generation college students. Most came from large rural families, and their parents, subsistence farmers, could offer little guidance as their children entered a new world. By 2019, when Mr. Hessler arrived at Sichuan University, he found a very different China, as well as a new kind of student – an only child whose schooling was the object of intense focus from a much more ambitious cohort of parents.
China’s education system offers a means of examining the country’s past, present, and future. At a time when anti-Chinese rhetoric in America has grown intense, Other Rivers is a work of empathy that shows us China from the inside out and the bottom up.In an interview conducted on August 6, 2024, Peter Hessler, in conversation with Lenora Chu, looks at Chinese education as a way to understand both China and the United States.
About the speakers: https://www.ncuscr.org/video/peter-hessler-other-rivers/
Follow Peter Hessler on X: @peterhessler
Follow Lenora Chu on X: @LenoraChu
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Arriving in China more than thirty years ago with nothing more than an interest in Chinese culture and philosophy, David Moser ended up witnessing China’s monumental evolution from a country just discovering Coca Cola to a wealthy, worldly, and confident nation. His experiences in China inspired his enthusiasm for cultural exchange, the importance of curiosity, and the necessity of dialogue to grow greater understanding of the country he calls home.
In an interview recorded on July 5, 2024, David Moser joins the National Committee to discuss his insights into Chinese culture and the importance of engaging with each other through shared humanity.
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What will China’s economic policy look like over the next five years? Since the launch of Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms in 1978, the Third Plenum (held every five years) has served as a platform for China’s leadership to convey its vision for the country’s economic future. Originally expected to convene in fall 2023, this Third Plenum was postponed until mid-July 2024. Although there was no public explanation for the delay, it is clear that China’s economy is at a crossroads. Since the last Third Plenum in 2018, the world has been through a pandemic; competitive tension with the U.S. has been on the rise; and China faces challenges that include an aging population, youth unemployment, and a troubled property sector. Foreign tariffs on Chinese goods have also increased, just as the CCP leadership navigates its role as a burgeoning global power in a time of international conflict and polarization.
Scott Kennedy, in conversation with Lizzi Lee, explores the implications of this Third Plenum for the future of China’s economy, economic policy, and international trade.
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In May 2023, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed SB264 (23R) into law, prohibiting Chinese nationals and those from some other countries from purchasing homes and other real estate in Florida. Republican state officials say the law is necessary to combat the influence of the Chinese Communist Party. Lawmakers in several states, including Texas, Louisiana, and Alabama, are considering similar restrictions on Chinese citizens owning property. Is the concern that propelled the law legitimate? How does it affect immigration from China? What are some potential consequences for Chinese citizens residing in the United States? What is the impact on the bilateral relationship?
On June 26, 2024, Elizabeth Plantan discussed the impact of Florida’s property law and other state-level laws aimed to restrict Chinese property ownership in the U.S. with Matthew Erie and Mae M. Ngai.
About the speakers
Follow Matthew Erie on X: @MatthewErie
Follow Elizabeth Plantan on X: @Enplantan
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China is growing in prominence on the world stage, highlighted by its leadership roles in international forums like the United Nations, peacebuilding efforts, and pioneering of economic relationships through the Belt and Road Initiative. Though China’s development offers new opportunities, its rise is also seen by many as a direct challenge to the post-World War II order largely established by the United States and allies. What is China’s desired role in the world, and what might a future shaped by Chinese goals and priorities look like?
In an interview filmed on June 6, 2024, NCUSCR Director Elizabeth Economy joins the National Committee to discuss China’s new world order and the role of the United States in a world where China has greater influence.
About the speaker
Follow Elizabeth Economy on X: @LizEconomy
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In 2022, the trade volume between the United States and China topped $750 billion dollars. Despite the deep economic interconnection between the two largest economies, both countries have been taking steps to separate their supply chains from each other—a process known as decoupling. What is the drive behind the U.S. desire to decouple from China and the ongoing trade war, and is it possible to decouple from China completely?
In an interview filmed on March 8, 2024, Clark Packard discusses how decoupling would affect the American and global economy.
About the speaker
Follow Clark Packard on X: @PackardClark
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In High Wire, Angela Zhang explores how China regulates its tech sector. By analyzing the incentives and interactions among the key players, Ms. Zhang introduces a dynamic pyramid model to analyze the structure, process, and outcome of China’s unique regulatory system. She showcases the self-regulatory tactics employed by Chinese tech titans to survive and thrive in an institutional environment plagued by fraud and corruption. The 2020-2022 tech crackdown led to the private sector’s retreat and the state’s advancement in the tech industry. These regulatory shifts have also steered investors from consumer tech businesses toward hardcore technologies that are essential for China’s bid to match, and perhaps overtake, the United States in innovation.
In an interview conducted on May 24, 2024, Angela Zhang, in conversation with Winston Ma, focuses on the recent past, present, and future of China’s tech governance, especially in the realm of generative artificial intelligence.
About the speakers
Follow Richard Fontaine on X: @AngelaZhangHK
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There is wide bipartisan agreement that Asia belongs at the center of U.S. foreign policy. What has been achieved since the Obama administration announced its “Pivot to Asia” in 2011? Robert Blackwill and Richard Fontaine argue in Lost Decade: The U.S. Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power that although the pivot made strategic sense, there have been few successes; furthermore, we need a far more coherent approach to the Indo-Pacific region. The authors stress that American policymakers must fully understand what the pivot to Asia aimed to achieve – and where it fell short – to gather the resources and forge the alliances and resolve necessary to preserve an open order in Asia and the world. Crafting an effective policy for the region is critical to preserving American security, prosperity, and democratic values.
In an interview conducted on May 14, 2024, Ambassador Robert D. Blackwill and Richard Fontaine discuss the recent shift to Asia-centric geopolitics and its implications for America’s present and future.
About the speakers
Follow Richard Fontaine on X: @RHFontaine
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