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In early 2021, I had the opportunity to catch up with a good friend of mine through the years, Scott Bessent. Given Scott's new role as incoming Treasury Secretary under President elect Trump, I thought it might be helpful to understand how Scott thinks about and sees the world. Here's our conversation from 2021.
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RenMac discusses:
Latest developments with Trump appointmentsThe horserace for Treasury secretaryOngoing weakness in labor demandLow bulls in Treasuries are bullishImpact of political appointments on specific sectors -
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RenMac discusses latest inflation data and the impact on the Fed, what labor market’s are telling us about trajectory, Latest Trump nominations, Bitcoin Breakout, Bullish cyclical call stands in stark contrast to weak semiconductors.
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Jeff, Neil, and Steve discuss:
Expectations between now and electionAccuracy of betting markets in defense of price discoveryThe big losersPath of unified governmentInflation expectationsCyclical trade and market’s messageLabor market conditionsPowell’s futureImportance of personnel to discern direction forward -
RenMac talks about the payroll surprise, the importance of NC and PA to Trump and Harris, elevated equity volatility and quiescent credit spreads and the Fed’s path into year’s end
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RenMac discusses the process of price discovery in the political prediction markets, the current state of the horserace, the outlook for employment, why Kevin Warsh is off-base in his criticism of the Fed’s September decision, and market seasonality.
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RenMac discusses this week’s data, the prospects of a shadow Fed Chair, the latest polls and candidates’ performance, China and how the overbought condition in yields tilts us toward cyclicality.
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RenMac discusses:
The latest shift in polls in the continued razor-thin election. The latest inflation data and how the sequence of jobs and inflation is impacting the Fed’s trajectory.The overbought condition in yields and the marginal benefit it should have for cyclicals vs defensive names.The bullish spread between equity volatility (VIX) and corporate creditBitcoin Commercial Hedger positioning. -
RenMac discusses the latest payroll surprise, the impact Helene is having on polling, China’s historic market strength, the improvement of cyclicals vs defensives, political October surprises and the upcoming inflation data.
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Neil cameos from Oktoberfest while Steve and Jeff discuss the equity strength in China, Kamala’s border visit, the empty promises made by both camps prior to elections and the marginal improvement in bitcoin.
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RenMac discusses the expected 50bps rate cut, implications for future cuts, the trajectory of the data going forward, the market impact and the latest polling around battleground states.
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RenMac discusses why 50bps makes the most sense, the impact the debate is likely to have on the election, the changes in capital requirements at banks, and some bright spots in energy and silver.
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RenMac discusses the weak August employment report, why the next decision really is less about consensus and more about what Powell thinks, a preview of the Trump/Harris debate, and the defensive nature in the equity markets.
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With Neil and Steve on the beach, Jeff and Kevin walk through the market’s message, where the strength and weakness are building and fading, and what it means for the remainder of the year. The team dives deeper into the historical reactions seen by sectors and industries after the Fed’s first rate-cut in a cycle. Happy Labor Day weekend.
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The RenMac Team discusses the DNC and latest in the general election campaign, the folly of price controls, the sharp downward revision to payroll employment and what it means for the Fed ahead of Jackson Hole, the recent breakout in gold, balance sheet versus income recession, and how tight policy is based on the gap between two-year yields and the Federal Funds Rate.
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RenMac discusses the current sensitive state of markets and the possible impacts of the upcoming decision on rate cuts, Kamala’s potential economic policies, the DNC, and the influence of the presidential election on downballot races, and what next week’s data (as well as Jackson Hole) could mean for markets going forward.
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RenMac discusses initial jobless claims, the baseline for rate cuts, and the growing risk of complacency from the Fed and market participants, Kamala’s VP pick (why wasn’t it Shapiro?) and the changing presidential odds, the Nikkei and the liquidity picture, as well as important data on deck for next week.
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RenMac discusses Harris’s candidacy and her potential picks for Vice President, GDP, inflation data, and what they mean for the Fed’s upcoming rate cuts, dark crosses in yields (why is the two-year yield down?), oversold conditions throughout the market, and important political and economic information to come next week.
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RenMac discusses the possibility and potential implications of Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, his likely replacement (will Democrats bypass Harris?), when and how many times the Fed will cut rates, small cap versus large cap, what recent and upcoming data can show about markets, and the future of the semiconductor trade.
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