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On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Dr. John Sviokla. John is an author, executive fellow at Harvard Business School, and co-founder of GAI Insights – the world's leading generative artificial-intelligence ("AI") analyst firm. He joins the podcast to talk all things AI – its investing potential, limitations, and real-world applications.
John kicks off the show by explaining how GAI Insights is helping organizations and communities understand and use generative AI. Currently, many executives don't know enough about it to even recognize its opportunities in the workplace. John says that workers whose jobs involve words, images, numbers, and sounds will be the most impacted by this technology. He also breaks down the three new forms of capital: network, behavioral, and cognitive. When it comes to the latter, businesses are trying to protect their proprietary data and processes today by keeping their AI behind firewalls. (1:46)
Next, John talks about how these AI models are trained, the process of training workers to use AI, and the limitations of AI. One such area AI struggles with is creating new ways to look at a problem. However, it's surprisingly good at empathizing and mimicking human emotions. John then discusses AI's computability, the transformer algorithm, and how AI could impact the broad market. (19:11)
Finally, John describes the four levels of generative-AI adoption. Those in the top level – "intelligence leveragers" – drive value by using AI to build AI. Right now, technology is the only industry with these kinds of companies. But John says that in the next five to seven years, each major industry will have an intelligence leverager. This presents a huge opportunity for investors. John gives several real-world situations across different industries (like pharmaceuticals and financials) where AI implementation will be game-changing. (40:35)
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On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Martin "Marty" Fridson
back to the show. Marty is an author and expert in the field of high-yield bond investing. He
is also a senior analyst at Porter & Co.'s Distressed Investing newsletter.
Marty kicks off the show by discussing the top-down view of the high-yield market. He
comments that right now, there is a very small risk premium. Marty breaks down the factors
that he uses in his model of fair value and concludes that the high-yield market is extremely
overvalued. At the same time, the market is forecasting a higher default rate than credit-
ratings agency Moody's. Marty also gives his opinion on whether we'll see a recession, what
it means that the inverted yield curve has not yet resulted in a recession, and why he's less
critical of the Federal Reserve than other investors. (1:39)
Next, Marty explains that the current situation of the federal-funds rate and the 10-year U.S.
Treasury yield moving in opposite directions is not rare. He says it happens 40% of the time.
This segues to a discussion about what's happening with the junk-bond market... including
companies potentially having to roll over their debt to higher rates... and private credit
lenders now competing with high-yield bond buyers. Marty then names which sectors
present attractive buying opportunities today. (18:03)
Finally, Marty goes further in depth about his quantitative model and what data it draws
upon to find attractively priced distressed debt. He then explains that because high-yield
bonds aren't very liquid, exchange-traded funds centered around these investments tend to
have a lot of variance in performance. This can have serious consequences in times of
extreme market disruption. (34:12) -
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On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Edwin Dorsey to the show. Edwin conducts deep, investigative analyses of public companies in his newsletter, The Bear Cave. By prioritizing customer relations and common-sense logic over financial data, he can gain an edge and find troubled companies for his subscribers before Wall Street does.
Edwin kicks off the show by explaining how he got his start doing short-selling research and how he identifies prime opportunities for shorting. Rather than focusing on the financials, he hunts for $1 billion to $10 billion companies in the technology or consumer sector with bad customer relationships. Edwin shares case studies of how he discovered safety issues at two child-focused companies. The first was caregiver platform Care.com, which wasn't properly vetting its caregivers. The second is Roblox, which has ongoing issues with child predators and gambling. (0:39)
Next, Edwin talks about why candy maker Hershey could face long-term issues now that trendy competitor Feastables is steadily stealing market share and doing a better job of appealing to the younger generation. As he points out, most investors tend to be older and male, so there are often blind spots for companies catering to youth and female demographics. Edwin also makes his bearish case for the predatory fitness-center company Planet Fitness. With the Federal Trade Commission working to make canceling memberships easier, this is bound to hurt the stock. (24:12)
Finally, Edwin names several companies that are doomed thanks to the rise of artificial-intelligence technology. He highlights call-center businesses and tax-service providers in particular, but also warns of downstream effects. After, Edwin talks more about how he first got interested in the financial world, how he learned that the numbers don't matter if the underlying business is not sustainable, and how he picks which stocks to go long. (40:23)
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On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Austin Root. Austin is an old friend and the chief investment officer at Stansberry Asset Management ("SAM"). SAM is a separate company from Stansberry Research and MarketWise, but it was born with the same DNA. The difference is, SAM helps individual investors optimize their portfolios.
Austin kicks off the show by discussing his favorite moments from last week's Stansberry Conference & Alliance Meeting. After, he shares what his role is at SAM and how the company helps individual investors with financial planning. Austin explains that SAM's team of specialists will look at an investor's full balance sheet – not just the part SAM is managing – and then make a personalized plan from there using projections. He emphasizes that paying down expensive credit-card debt is the most important first step, and he breaks down how macro factors influence SAM's strategies. (0:46)
Next, Austin talks about why investors should be in productive assets rather than cash, why he sees gold as inferior to shares of world-class businesses, and how bitcoin can be a good long-term store of value. He also names two stocks he finds particularly attractive right now. The first is a financial company that is trading at a discount, is poised for double-digit revenue growth, and serves as an inflation hedge. The second is a construction-materials company with a fantastic shareholder yield of nearly 10%. (24:59)
Finally, Austin explains why investors should keep politics out of their portfolios for the long term. He says inflation is the one factor he always pays attention to and everything else is noise. Austin does note, though, that he has loaded up on defense stocks for the short term since geopolitical tensions are rising around the globe. But overall, he says both candidates want to spend like mad and will be bad for the economy in the long run. (45:29)
Disclosure: Stansberry Asset Management ("SAM") is a Registered Investment Adviser with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. File number: 801-107061. Such registration does not imply any level of skill or training. Under no circumstances should this report or any information herein be construed as investment advice, or as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or other financial instruments.
Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, LLC ("Stansberry Research") is not a current client or investor of SAM. SAM provides cash compensation to Stansberry Research for Stansberry Research's advisory client solicitation services for the benefit of SAM. Material conflicts of interest may exist due to Stansberry Research's economic interest in soliciting clients for SAM. Certain Stansberry Research personnel may also have limited rights and interests relating to one or more parent entities of SAM.
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On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Marc Chaikin back to the show. Marc is a Wall Street veteran with 50-plus years of total market experience. He's also the founder and CEO of our corporate affiliate, Chaikin Analytics. He joins the show to share some of his vast wisdom with listeners, from the hottest sectors around to why you shouldn't get spooked by all the volatility.
Marc kicks off the show by making his bullish case for the markets. However, he notes that this rising tide has not lifted all boats equally... He lists off several sectors that are particularly attractive to him today, plus a few he's staying away from. Marc also talks a bit about JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon's prediction for a financial hurricane, the outlook for energy stocks, what's going on in China to make stocks so volatile, how the Federal Reserve has been doing, and the U.S.'s shift from a manufacturing economy to a service economy. (0:39)
Next, Marc emphasizes that the key to profiting as an investor is to avoid making broad economic predictions. He says that different sets of data can give you conflicting signals, so it's not worth your time trying to guess the unknowable future. Instead, you should pay attention only to momentum and earnings. Marc then criticizes financial reporting by the mainstream media, advises listeners to take advantage of current volatility rather than run from it, and highlights the bullish setups in nuclear and software stocks thanks to AI. (18:56)
Finally, Marc urges investors to not get bearish while the S&P 500 Index is having its best year since 1997. He points out that, as the dot-com mania showed us, the bull run can continue for several more years. As long as profit margins continue to rise, you want to be invested. He also explains how he uses his Power Gauge system to avoid doomed stocks. This leads to a conversation about Marc's new upcoming newsletter that will focus on what the "smart money" is buying and allow him to spot "pockets of strength." Plus, Marc weighs in on mining stocks. (38:38)
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On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Jonathan Shaffner to the podcast. Jon is a retired U.S. Army colonel with 25 years of service who currently works as the director of federal business development at MBO Partners. MBO specializes in delivering solutions that make it safer and easier for enterprise organizations and top independent professionals to work together.
Jon kicks off the show by discussing NATO's increased presence in Europe, through the lens of his own military experience. He posits that modern wars are more ideology-based than previous ones. This leads to Jon talking about his years in Afghanistan and Iraq. After, he shares what MBO does and how it helps companies (especially in defense and health care) build better workforces. (1:00)
Next, Jon puts government spending into an investing context. He notes that through all the inefficiency and bloat, there are definite winners and losers of government contracts. He also breaks down his and MBO's involvement in helping to create value for the companies that have been awarded these contracts. Jon cites data usage as the biggest need he's seeing right now. Companies have massive amounts of data but don't know what to do with it or how to implement it. (23:05)
Finally, Jon talks about how MBO finds contractors, the possibility of it going public someday, and its research on the gig economy. He then explores what could happen with the two major ongoing wars affecting the U.S. today: Russia versus Ukraine and Israel versus Hamas. Jon predicts that the war in Ukraine will be over within 18 months, but he says the war in the Middle East is much more complicated thanks to the Houthis. (42:41)
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On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Brendan Ahern to the
show. Brendan is the chief investment officer at asset manager KraneShares. The company
provides investors access to Chinese companies, climate investments, and uncorrelated
assets through exchange-traded funds.Brendan kicks off the show by describing the basics of KraneShares and its involvement in Chinese markets. He discusses the recent surge in Chinese stocks and gives context for what's driving it. As Brendan explains, the country is focused on stabilizing real estate prices and stimulating the broader economy. By lowering interest rates and announcing loads of subsidies that will benefit its citizens, the government can increase domestic consumption at a crucial time. (0:43)
Next, Brendan talks about China's negative reputation due to Western disinformation and
political rhetoric. As almost all U.S. investors are implicitly involved with China, and as the
majority of Western companies outsource to China, our economy depends on the foreign
nation. Brendan also discusses the influence U.S. investors have had on Chinese companies
in regard to corporate governance... billionaire hedge-fund manager David Tepper going all-in on China... and why he believes China won't invade Taiwan. (18:11)Finally, Brendan breaks down the growth prospects for China today and shares his thoughts on the U.S. moving to produce more semiconductors domestically. After, he discusses today's data-driven world and the new ways this data is collected by research firms. KraneShares is able to leverage this data in turn and be selective about which Chinese companies it gets involved with. As Brendan explains, cooperation with China is both important for investors' portfolio diversification and for a harmonious future. (37:12)
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On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Bob Murphy. Bob is the chief economist at technology firm infineo, author of more than a dozen books, and a passionate advocate of free markets. He explores a wide variety of topics on this week's podcast, from how history is repeating itself... to the U.S. dollar's inevitable fall from dominance... to the harmful consequences of low interest rates.
Bob starts the show by explaining what exactly infineo does, how it's making life insurance an asset class, and the advantages of tokenizing life insurance. He also discusses one of his books, the Politically Incorrect Guide to the Great Depression and the New Deal. Even though the book is more than a decade old, and even though it's about the U.S. economy in the 1920s and 1930s, its lessons are still relevant in today's economic context. Bob notes that there's going to be a big crash no matter what. (1:13)
Next, Bob talks a bit about the presidential election, the effects of Donald Trump pulling out of the Paris Agreement, and the government's out-of-control spending problem. He predicts that the U.S. dollar will lose its status as the world reserve currency by the 2040s, and voices concerns that the U.S. is following China's lead toward a Big Brother police state with social credit scores. (19:57)
Finally, Bob shares his thoughts on the current state of the economy. He covers hyperinflation, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's actions, the inverted yield curve, and former Fed economist Claudia Sahm denying the validity of her own 100%-accurate recession indicator. Bob also talks about the harm caused by low interest rates and how they lead to malinvestment, allowing bad businesses to stay alive. (40:54)
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On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Chris Pavese back to the show. Chris is the president and chief investment officer of Broyhill Asset Management. A value-oriented investment firm, Broyhill prioritizes safe, long-term success.
Chris kicks off the show by sharing a few book recommendations and explaining all about Broyhill. He covers how he got his start at the company, what differentiates it from other asset managers, and its core value-investing philosophy. As Chris notes, we've seen one of the longest stretches of value underperformance in history. However, Broyhill has kept pace with the S&P 500 Index over the past decade, despite not holding the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks and half of the portfolio being in foreign markets. (0:43)
Next, Chris explains what closed-end funds are and why they see such major swings in sentiment. He also gives his macro outlook in regard to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and what it means for the economy. Chris highlights the fact that today's market is one of the most concentrated in history. But as he points out, there are pockets of value in many areas, especially internationally. And despite all the geopolitical turmoil, he advises against abandoning equities completely. (19:59)
Finally, Chris discusses the importance of having a margin of safety and practicing common-sense risk management. He also mentions that the Biden administration is going hard with antitrust regulation and blocking a lot of deals, which is causing wide spreads in stock price when mergers and acquisitions are announced. Broyhill uses this merger-arbitrage strategy a fair amount to get easy money. Plus, Chris shares Broyhill's underwriting methods to gauge a business's intrinsic value. (40:08)
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On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Pete Carmasino back to
the show. Pete is chief market strategist at our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics. He's also
editor of the Chaikin PowerTactics and Chaikin PowerTrader newsletters. With more than 25
years of experience in the financial-services industry, Pete joins the podcast to share some
of his wisdom on sector rotations, pullbacks, and the housing market.
Pete kicks off the show by talking about the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates,
unemployment ticking higher, and the difficulty bond managers are having with timing the
market. He also shares his thoughts on the Sahm Rule indicator, which says we're currently
in a recession. Pete believes that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will only do a 25-basis-point rate
cut, but that ultimately Japan will be the deciding factor in Powell's decision. This leads to a
conversation about sector rotation and which sectors are outperforming today. (0:43)
Next, Pete gives pointers on how to find investing opportunities within market rotations and
pullbacks. He explains that a lot of the sectors that are thriving today serve as bond proxies,
and a lot of the individual stocks that investors are flocking to are safe havens that pay high
dividends. After, Pete talks about the trend in oil and gas prices over the past two years and
how it has been influenced by the White House's efforts to refill the Strategic Petroleum
Reserve. (18:46)
Finally, Pete shares why he believes the housing market is on its way to reaching an
"equilibrium" between buyers and sellers. He says housing prices can stay high (benefiting
sellers) while interest-rate cuts will lower mortgages (benefiting buyers). Pete also cites
increases to the lifetime gift/estate tax exemption as a reason for the influx of competitive
all-cash housing transactions. (34:31) -
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Aaron Edelheit back to the
show. Aaron is the founder and CEO of private investment firm Mindset Capital. He joins the
podcast to talk about his investing philosophy... the importance of relieving mental stress...
and all things cannabis – from its "great replacement" of alcohol to its legalization in more
and more states.
Aaron begins with a story about how he received advice from the legendary Charlie Munger
on the "price of admission" of being an investor. He explains that this advice made him
reflect on his own strengths and realize that he wanted to exclusively do long-term investing
rather than trading. This leads to a conversation about investor psychology and mental
strain. Aaron shares a few tips for relieving the anxiety surrounding investing, from turning
off your phone and computer one day a week to doing hot yoga. (1:37)
Next, Aaron talks a bit about his investing background, his career path, and how he finds
opportunities where others aren't looking. Today, he believes the big opportunity is in
cannabis stocks. He explains that certain names in this industry are breaking out despite the
lack of federal reform. Aaron also drops a non-cannabis name that he's interested in and
gives an alternative perspective on value stocks. (22:44)
Finally, Aaron compares today's investing landscape with that of the 1990s. He shares that
there's much more financing of private companies today, which stops them from going
public for longer (if at all). After, Aaron makes his case for cannabis stocks. He believes that
they will eventually steal market share from drug companies and alcohol producers once
more people realize the benefits and switch over. (40:54) -
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Brody Mullins to the show. Brody is a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative reporter and author of the new book The Wolves of K Street. He joins the podcast to share insights from his two-plus decades spent investigating the Washington political scene.
Brody kicks off the show by discussing his history reporting on antitrust regulation. He notes that recently, both major political parties in D.C. have become less friendly to Big Tech companies and are using antitrust regulation to slow their growth. After, Brody talks a bit about how he got started in journalism, the importance of holding those in power accountable, and why he has dedicated his life to investigating companies. (1:27)
Next, Brody shares some details about his book. He points out that for most of this country's history, companies had very little influence in Washington. Things only changed in the 1970s once the economy cratered and stagflation hit. Then, companies began to lobby in order to twist regulations and gain an advantage in the market. Brody also explains lobbying in simple terms, including how lobbyists raise money for members of Congress. He argues that legal loopholes and undisclosed funds to influence constituents have made companies nearly untouchable. (15:10)
Finally, Brody discusses why there's still hope for the American people to fight back. He explains that negative public perception about these big, powerful corporations (such as Amazon and Google parent Alphabet) has influenced antitrust regulators to begin taking action. He also talks about insider trading among members of Congress and emphasizes that all of these conflicts of interest are not limited to one party. (33:38)
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On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Greg Diamond back to the
show. Greg is a fellow analyst at Stansberry Research and editor of the trading advisory Ten
Stock Trader. With nearly two decades' worth of experience trading and managing every
asset class, Greg is an expert at technical analysis and interpreting market cycles.
Greg kicks things off by reviewing the inflection points he predicted last time he was on the
podcast. He explains what these time cycles mean and how they've influenced his trading
strategy this year. He also discusses the upcoming presidential election and how crucial it is
for investors to put aside their biases. According to Greg, the market's wider emotional
reactions to the election could present some fantastic buying opportunities. (0:55)
Next, Greg breaks down famed trader W.D. Gann's technical strategies into simple terms. He
emphasizes that the "why" in market cycles is not really important. What matters is whether
history is repeating or not. Greg warns of cycle inversions, however, and points out that
many charts and algorithms in technical analysis just reflect human emotion. Investors will
naturally reach different conclusions about the market, which creates volatility. (17:03)
Finally, Greg talks about short-term trading versus holding stocks for the long term. He
shares that this presidential election is the most excited he has been about trading since
2022. Greg foresees "an exceptional trading season" after a fairly boring start to the year.
And he hammers home that investors should be careful of increased volatility for the next
few months and possibly even the next few years. (39:41) -
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Bob Elliott back to the
show. Bob is the co-founder, chief investment officer, and CEO of Unlimited. The investment
firm uses machine learning to replicate the index returns of hedge funds, venture capital,
and private equity. Bob explores a wide range of topics in the podcast, from counteracting
inflation with certain investments to the worsening future of globalization.
Bob kicks off the show by talking about the importance of holding yourself accountable with
investing and about bonds in relation to the Federal Reserve's next moves. Many investors
are expecting an aggressive rate-cutting cycle, but as Bob points out, the Fed may not live
up to those expectations. He also discusses the flaws of the 60/40 portfolio in today's
market, why you should hold gold as part of your portfolio, and two primary factors that
could contribute to a long-term inflationary environment. (1:02)
Next, Bob explores ways to properly balance your portfolio to preserve wealth and minimize
volatility. This leads to a conversation about Treasury inflation-protected securities. Bob
describes why they're a better investment today than they were a few years ago and what
gives them an edge over nominal bonds. After, he discusses the supply-and-demand
imbalance in natural resources, oil's supply sensitivity versus precious metals, and the
green-energy movement. (20:57)
Finally, Bob makes his case for investing in natural resource companies and warns listeners
about roll costs when trading in the futures market. He then talks from a macro perspective
about productivity in relation to AI. As he explains, AI has not yet led to large productivity
advances like we saw with the advent of the personal computer. (37:58) -
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Brent Cook back to the
show. Brent is an economic geologist, as well as the founder and senior adviser of newsletter
company Exploration Insights. With more than 30 years of experience in property economics
and geology evaluations – spanning 60-plus countries – Brent has seen it all. He is one of the
most credible, successful, and knowledgeable mining-stock investors in the world. If you
invest in mining stocks, this episode is an absolute must-listen experience.Brent kicks off the show by discussing what's happening at Yellowstone and what he learned
from attending Rick Rule's mining conference. Brent warns investors to beware of mining
and exploration companies that are picking up old, "dead" projects and redrilling holes,
purely to bump up their share price and raise capital. After, Brent details a bit about his
career history and how he ended up in geology. (0:43)Next, Brent discusses what investors should look for when trying to find a mining company
worth buying. This includes the narrative of the broader economy, the risk profile, and
knowing what kinds of results you want to see from the company in terms of drill results. As
he explains, folks should seek high-margin companies with good management teams and
with deposits in friendly jurisdictions. He lists off several regions and countries that he
believes look promising today, plus some complications he has faced in the past. (19:21)Finally, Brent names a copper-mining company that he's interested in today. It has water
rights, no environmental liabilities, and a project that looks auspicious. He also shares a
gold-mining company he likes that's developing a very high-grade deposit in Australia. Brent
then explains the difference between mining and extracting gold and copper, and he makes
a bullish case for the red metal. (34:02) -
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Rudi Fronk back to the
show. Rudi is the founder, chairman, and CEO of Seabridge Gold (SA). With more than 35
years of experience in the gold industry, Rudi is an expert in his field. He joins the podcast to
talk all about precious metals mining, future opportunities for gold and copper, and what
sets his company apart from the rest.
Rudi begins by giving a brief history of how he got into gold mining. He shares the reason he
started Seabridge with shareholder value in mind. He also breaks down some of the risks
involved in mining – including working in politically unstable countries – and why he'll never
build another mine again. After, he talks a bit about the technical aspects of drilling,
exploration, and the process behind estimating how much gold is in the ground. (1:14)
Next, Rudi discusses potential joint-venture opportunities with leading mining companies for
Seabridge's KSM property, mainly thanks to increased demand for copper. He also talks
about the importance of permitting, catalysts that could move Seabridge's share price
higher, offsetting share dilution, and early-stage projects that are in the works. And Rudi
makes his case for why gold is entering a new, interesting bull market. (16:55)
Finally, Rudi shares his opinion on bitcoin, talks further about soaring copper demand, and
delves into Seabridge's goal of giving back physical gold to investors. As he explains, the
KSM property is expected to produce more than 1 million ounces of gold per year for the first
33 years. And 35% to 49% of gold produced will be returned to the company. (33:56) -
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by investor and bestselling author Larry McDonald. Larry founded The Bear Traps Report, an investment newsletter that looks at global political and systemic risks when making actionable trades. He is also a frequent contributor on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business News.
Larry kicks off the show by sharing his history as a trader at Lehman Brothers and how certain parts of today's market mirror the 2008 crash. He notes that commodities are extremely cheap while semiconductors just hit an all-time high. Larry predicts that capital will migrate back toward real assets. He also discusses what a second Donald Trump presidential term would mean for the bond market, the huge risk with inflation, and a possible bright spot for the housing market as Baby Boomers age. (1:01)
Next, Larry breaks down his trading strategy involving capitulation. He brings up the extreme 20% discount in copper today and makes a five-year bull case for natural gas. This leads to a conversation about the current hot stocks in artificial intelligence ("AI"). Larry says that the AI mania has gotten so bad, chief financial officers at tech companies have to invest in AI even if they don't want to, for fear of losing their jobs. He believes we're in the early stages of an unwinding. And he notes that many companies adjacent to AI, like those relating to the electrical grid, have been left for dead. (17:36)
Finally, Larry explains that the pain cycles following market bubbles should be longer, but quantitative easing has gotten in the way of that natural process. Bad businesses used to be cleaned out, but now they're able to survive. Larry condemns "evil" passive investing and talks about how much worse the practice has gotten in the past decade and a half. He then lists off a few specific stocks he finds attractive today and advises investors to be careful about buying dips. (36:56)
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On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome their colleague Mike
Barrett back to the show. Mike is editor of Select Value Opportunities and senior analyst of
Extreme Value. He joins the podcast to talk extensively about valuations, why you should
never pay too much for a stock, and the opportunities he sees in the market today.
Mike kicks off the episode by giving updates on his pecan plantation and his weekly Select
Value Opportunities newsletter. He explains that this service helps subscribers beat the
market while taking on less risk. The portfolio has returned about 14.5% since inception and
has outperformed its benchmark for nearly 80 straight weeks. Mike's secret to
outperformance is his system... It focuses on valuations and gives daily rankings of 100 well-
known stocks. That way, subscribers can enter positions at an ideal moment. Mike
emphasizes the importance of valuation and reminds listeners that it's a metric for future
performance. (1:34)
Next, Mike analyzes the differences between valuing stocks in public markets and his past
experience with valuing real estate in private markets. Plus, he talks more about momentum
being another important factor in picking stocks and how valuations have changed in recent
times. As Mike explains, the first year he started his service, only 5% of stocks were
overvalued. Now, in the past year, 30% are. This is "unprecedented" and a "warning sign"
that investors should be aware of. Still, Mike's system can help prevent huge losses. (19:28)
Finally, Mike gives his opinion on the overall market action and the broader economic
picture. He brings up market cycles, his belief that unemployment is about to be a big issue,
and factors that will lead gold and silver prices higher from here. He points out that there are
fewer higher-paying jobs available now and that most growth has been in lower-paying jobs.
This is skewing the jobs data. And he also discusses the importance of the housing sector
when it comes to inflation. (37:27) -
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by investor and award-winning filmmaker David Tice. David is the chief investment officer and senior adviser of a short-selling exchange-traded fund. He also is partner at Moran Tice Capital Management, an investment-advisory firm.
David kicks off the show by discussing his documentary starring Dennis Quaid, Grid Down, Power Up. The film centers around what would happen if the U.S. power grid went down and the country was left without electricity for a lengthy period of time. David talks about how preventable the catastrophe could be if the government invested in utilities. And he shares that a disaster like this could result in hundreds of millions of Americans dying of starvation or water deprivation. As David emphasizes, this is a very real danger, as America's adversaries are already in the grid from a cyberattack standpoint. (1:36)
Next, David details his short-selling AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear Fund (HDGE). He explains that the fund is up year to date since many bad companies are finally starting to do poorly in the market, especially in commercial real estate. And several factors – overvalued stocks, high interest rates, massive national debt – are setting the country up for a huge decline. David urges listeners to prepare for the worst rather than try to eke out a few more percentage points in gains, especially considering today's geopolitical conditions. (17:44)
Finally, David breaks down how he and his team at HDGE discover companies to short. He cautions, however, that bad stocks can soar just as much as good stocks, so timing is the key factor. After, David discusses his precious metals hedge fund and the huge opportunity he sees in mid-cap producers that are selling extraordinarily cheaply. He lists off two particular gold stocks he's a fan of and explains why he has so much hope for this sector. (34:57)
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On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by their colleague Whitney Tilson. Whitney is the lead editor on Stansberry's Investment Advisory – Stansberry Research's flagship newsletter – as well as Commodity Supercycles and his free e-letter Whitney Tilson's Daily. Once dubbed "The Prophet" by CNBC for his prescient calls, he joins the podcast to share some financial wisdom with listeners.
Whitney kicks off the show by talking about the value of attending investing conferences and other company meetings. You can gain insights, talk to fellow investors, share ideas, and either discover promising trends or discover which trends are "bombs." Whitney emphasizes that avoiding calamities is just as important as finding the next big investment idea. He shares his experience with short selling and how he actually lost a lot of money by employing the technique. This leads to a conversation about value traps – what they are and how they can lead to ruin. (1:24)
Next, Whitney details his storied history with Netflix and why he went from shorting the company to investing in it. Ultimately, he found a 90-bagger. But he sold the stock early and left money on the table. The "most important lesson" he learned from that experience is to let your winners run. As Whitney explains, that's why index funds outperform almost all active managers over a long period of time – because they never sell their winners. (16:40)
Finally, Whitney hammers home that investors should be selective with stocks and only buy the best-quality businesses. Many of these companies see large drawdowns at some point, which can be perfect buying opportunities... even if you're not able to find the exact bottom. Whitney predicts that Nvidia could see a sizable drop since the company is relatively young and volatile. After, he shares that value stocks, small-cap stocks, and international stocks are all at 20-plus-year lows. This extreme underperformance presents an opportunity for investors wanting to diversify their portfolios. And Whitney also breaks down how to spot a high-quality business that may be struggling in the short term versus a value-trap business that will only head lower. (35:02)
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