エピソード
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Epoch Times reporter John Haughey tells us what he's hearing from
Timestamps
0:00: Pratik introduces John Haughey
3:00: SSG pre-election coverage
4:01: Manifold election party
6:52: Interview begins
7:39: Epoch Times
19:34: Haughey's interest in political betting
24:43: Data
31:16: Republican uniformity of message
38:28: Impressions from the ground
45:23: October surprises?
48:06: Montana Senate race
Bet on the 2024 elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.
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David Glidden (@dglid), co-founder of the Forecasting Meetup Network, provides a step-by-step how-to guide to organizing a forecasting meetup.
Timestamps
1:08: Review of September forecasting meetup
2:08: Polymarket's commitment to community-building
3:03: October forecasting meetup
7:03: Interview with Glidden begins
8:29: Working with a partner
9:42: Sensitivity to rejection
12:48: Nate Silver's community of elites
14:25: Big visions
15:25: Shayne Coplan's vision
18:28: Scratch your own itch
19:52: Prediction market newsletters
21:39: Polymarket's The Oracle
22:32: How to begin
23:03: Finding a venue
26:17: Focus on n of 1
26:38: Fundraising
27:28: Manifund
32:39: Value for sponsors
37:17: Getting RSVPs
38:56: How to get involved
41:54: Expanding beyond Washington
43:26: Grassroots activism
44:46: Opponents of election betting
47:53: Why companies don't invest in grassroots activism
Join us for a pre-election forecasting & prediction markets meetup/party this Tuesday! Details and RSVP for free here: https://partiful.com/e/ITHDAcznT1DppUXD2p9x
Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers
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エピソードを見逃しましたか？
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David Glidden (@dglid) draws lessons from the sports betting world for building the forecasting community.
Timestamps
0:00: Intro begins
0:09: Saul Munn
1:26: David Glidden
1:52: Washington DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup
6:54: Interview with Glidden begins
13:32: Importance of building forecasting community
14:39: Effective altruism
22:02: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup
24:49: Sports betting
40:53: Repeatable lines in prediction markets
Show Notes
September 26 DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup RSVP: https://partiful.com/e/zpObY6EmiQEkgpcJB6Aw DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets
Meetup Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups
For more information on the meetup, DM David Glidden @dglid.
Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers.
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Pratik Chougule summarizes the latest developments in the legal battle between Kalshi and the CFTC on election betting.
Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield do a deep dive into the CFTC's arguments in front of DC federal district court Judge Jia Cobb.
Timestamps
0:00: Pratik introduces segment with Bransfield
1:43: Update on latest in Kalshi-CFTC legal battle
9:34: Bransfield segment begins
11:18: CFTC counsel's poor presentation
20:33: Definition of a contest
21:47: Market manipulation
27:02: Cobb's concerns
27:29: CFTC's arguments about gaming
29:34: Importance of public comments to CFTC
25:38: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup
Show Notes
September 26 DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup RSVP: https://partiful.com/e/zpObY6EmiQEkgpcJB6Aw
DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetupsFor more information on the meetup, DM David Glidden @dglid.
Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers.
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Political gambling legend 50Pence challenges Alex Chan for the SSG Title Belt on the question of who will win the Trump-Harris debate.
Chan and 50Pence also discuss which mention markets will hit on Polymarket and how many more Trump-Harris debates there will be before the election.
Timestamps
3:49: Interview begins
4:38: How Chan won the Title Belt
6:54: 50Pence introduction
8:26: Title Belt bet
15:50: Favorable moderators for Trump
18:32: Counterparty risk
21:39: Debate rules
30:59: Harris's performance
57:13: Trump's weaknesses
1:02:11: Polymarket debate mention markets
1:08:03: Crypto/Bitcoin mentions
1:15:32: How many Trump-Harris debates?
1:18:47: Lottos on 3+ debates?
Show Notes
Bet on debate markets at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers
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Part I: Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield analyze Kalshi's case against the CFTC in federal court
Part II: Jared Whitley discusses political trends among Mormons and other high-achieving minority groups
Timestamps
0:00: Pratik introduces Kalshi segment
0:51: Pratik introduces Whitley segment
2:12: Mormon vote in Arizona and Nevada
3:30: Cuban-American vote in Florida
6:23: Segment on Kalshi begins
6:29: Jones Day
9:13: Joshua Sterling
10:50: Yaakov Roth
11:14: Amanda Rice
11:39: Kalshi's gaming argument
14:05: Kalshi's public interest argument
14:45: Lack of expertise on prediction markets
15:35: Factual errors
16:40: Kalshi references Chougule's comment letter
19:51: Attendees at the Hearing
21:08: Importance of legal arguments
22:10: Judge's reaction to Kalshi
23:11: Segment with Whitley begins
23:34: The Triple Package
24:09: Mormon influence in politics
25:11: Protestant alliances
25:48: Romney-Santorum battle in 2012
26:19: High-achieving minority groups
27:02: Cuban-Americans
29:31: Mormons moving left
35:27: Utah housing affordability
36:29: Federal lands in Utah
37:55: Blue state refugees in Utah
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers
Coalition for Political Forecasting: https://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/
Markets Referenced
Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.
Arizona Presidential Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/arizona-presidential-election-winner?tid=1725129552556
Arizona Senate Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/arizona-us-senate-election-winner?tid=1725129686645
AZ-06 election: Engel (D) vs. Ciscomani (R): https://polymarket.com/event/az-06-election-engel-d-vs-ciscomani-r/az-06-election-engel-d-vs-ciscomani-r?tid=1725129720295
AZ-01 election: Shah (D) vs. Schweikert (R): https://polymarket.com/event/az-01-election-shah-d-vs-schweikert-r/az-01-election-shah-d-vs-schweikert-r?tid=1725129749517
Nevada Presidential Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/nevada-presidential-election-winner?tid=1725129799530
Nevada Senate Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/nevada-us-senate-election-winner?tid=1725129834707
Utah Presidential Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/utah-presidential-election-winner?tid=1725129848259
Utah Senate Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/utah-us-senate-election-winner?tid=1725129890027
Utah Governor Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/utah-governor-election-winner?tid=1725129905105
Florida Presidential Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/florida-presidential-election-winner?tid=1725129967776
Florida Senate Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/florida-us-senate-election-winner?tid=1725129994668
Tipping Point State: https://polymarket.com/event/us-election-tipping-point-state?tid=1725130009469
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Keendawg (@keendawg) and Gaeten Dugas (@gaetend) return to the show to review the Republican National Convention and discuss what it tells us about the Trump-Harris matchup.
Timestamps
3:58: Interview begins
5:19: Shayne Coplan at the RNC
18:05: Why the RNC matters
19:48: Odds on Republicans winning the presidency
27:47: Media treatment of Harris
31:54: How to bet on the Trump-Kamala race
37:22: Polymarket's achievements in the 2024 election
SUPPORT US: Patreon: www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers
FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL: Twitter: www.twitter.com/ssgamblers
VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: www.starspangledgamblers.com
Bet on the 2024 presidential election at Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com.
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Part I: Pratik Chougule offers his thoughts on what to say in comments to the CFTC on its event contracts proposal.
Part II: Mick Bransfield discusses the federal judge who will decide the lawsuit between Kalshi and the CFTC
Timestamps
1:40: How to submit a comment to the CFTC
2:57: How to watch the CFTC Open Meeting on YouTube
3:43: What to write to the CFTC
5:38: The CFTC's goal with its event contracts proposal
7:39: What kind of comments will move the needle
12:36: Questions about enforcement in the proposal
13:44: Political betting moving offshore
15:17: Delaying the rule
17:23: Need for a balancing test
22:36: Interview with Bransfield begins
28:31: Jia Cobb
34:32: Ignorance about prediction markets
38:36: Gambling references on Kalshi's website
CFTC Proposal on Event Contracts: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8907-24
SUPPORT US: Patreon: www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers
FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL: Twitter: www.twitter.com/ssgamblers
VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: www.starspangledgamblers.com
Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com
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Part I: Jared Whitley explains why it will be difficult politically and legally to reschedule marijuana in 2024
Part II: Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield discuss what a Republican president would mean for the regulation of election event contractsTimestamps
0:00: Pratik introduces marijuana rescheduling segment
2:11: Pratik introduces segment on event contract regulation
3:24: CFTC rulemaking on event contracts
6:46: Interview with Whitley begins
8:14: Referencing Polymarket odds in political analysis
11:12: What does rescheduling marijuana mean?
13:30: Why Biden rescheduled marijuana
17:46: Romney's objections
18:17: U.S. treaty obligations
30:05: Public attitudes
35:27: Bransfield interview begins
Show Notes
— Whitley's Daily Caller column: https://dailycaller.com/2024/04/10/whitley-democrats-trick-young-americans-selling-birthright-mess-pot-marijuana-election/
— Romney letter to DEA https://www.romney.senate.gov/romney-leads-letter-to-dea-highlighting-concerns-with-rescheduling-marijuana-and-compliance-with-u-s-treaty-obligations/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CAny%20effort%20to%20reschedule%20marijuana,account%20for%20our%20treaty%20obligations.%E2%80%9D
Trade on whether marijuana will be rescheduled in 2024 at Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market. https://polymarket.com/event/will-weed-be-rescheduled-in-2024/will-weed-be-rescheduled-in-2024?tid=1722322243642
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Part I: William Kedjanyi previews the July 4 UK elections. He discusses Nigel Farage's rise, what he's hearing from ordinary voters, and whether Labour will win more than 450 seats.
Part II: Anthony Pickles discusses why there is relatively little hedging in the UK betting markets
Timestamps
0:30: Pratik introduces Kedjanyi
1:53: Pratik introduces segment with Pickles
5:19: Segment with Kedjanyi begins
6:27: Reform Party's launch
11:28: Farage's odds of election
15:02: Farage's impact in the next government
19:38: First past the post
25:03: The Labour Party's ideology
25:46: How Farage could impact the Tories
26:42: Reform will not be the opposition
28:08: How many seats for Labour
29:39: What Kedjanyi learned from traveling around the country
33:19: Potential surprises
36:27: Which way will polling miss go?
39:07: Segment with Pickles begins
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers
Trade on the UK elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.
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Part I: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule), Ben Freeman (benwfreeman1), and Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) discuss why Trump is unlikely to select J.D. Vance as VP.
Part II: Pratik and Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) discuss what comments will favorably influence the CFTC in the ongoing rulemaking on event contractsPart III: Anthony Pickles (@polgambling) provides advice on how to follow the UK elections and maintain an edge in these markets
Part IV: Saul Munn (@saulmunn) explains the importance of capital in building the forecasting community
Timestamps
0:11: Pratik introduces segment on J.D. Vance
0:46: Pratik introduces segment with Mick Bransfield
1:30: Pratik introduces segment with Anthony Pickles
2:13: Pratik introduces segment with Saul Munn
5:02: Vance segment begins
5:14: Chan's views on Vance
6:33: Freeman's analysis on Vance
8:34: Pratik's analysis on Vance
11:07: Segment with Bransfield begins
18:11: Libertarians in CFTC comment period
28:09: Segment with Pickles begins
33:05: Segment with Munn begins
35:24: Social capital
41:33: Weak ties
44:09: Creating value
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers
Bet on Trump's VP selection at Polymarket https://polymarket.com/event/republican-vp-nominee/will-tim-scott-win-the-2024-republican-vp-nomination?tid=1719813123739
Optic Forecasting: https://www.opticforecasting.com/
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Part I: Professor Anthony Pickles (@polgambling), an expert on political gambling, does a deep dive into Keir Starmer and precisely how many seats Labour and the Conservatives are likely to win in UK's upcoming elections.
Part II: Vegas bookmaker Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) explains how professional bettors are driving irrational odds in the VP markets.Part III: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) discusses why opponents of election betting have the upper hand in Washington.
Timestamps
0:09: Pratik introduces segment on UK elections
2:01: Pratik introduces segment with Alex Chan on VP odds
3:17: Pratik introduces segment on event contract regulation
5:55: Segment on UK elections begins
6:12: Anthony's background
8:17: Keir Starmer's background
10:16: Starmer's odds of becoming Prime Minister
11:01: How many seats Conservatives and Labour will win
22:04: Why Sunak and the Conservatives are unlikely to make a comeback
28:37: Why Sunak called an early election
30:54: Labour seat totals
34:03: Right-wing bias in the markets?
36:59: Discussion of class politics
39:27: Segment with Chan begins
39:46: VP odds on Tulsi Gabbard and Vivek Ramaswamy
40:48: "Juice" in sportsbooks
41:46: Regulation segment begins
42:56: Incentives in the current CFTC rulemaking
45:00: Need for a counter-lobby on event contracts
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers
Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at Polymarket.com
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3-Part Episode
Part I: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule), SSG TItle Belt Champ Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1), and Title Belt Challenger Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) debate whether or not Trump cares about qualifications in his VP decision, or whether it will come down to politics.
Part II: Doug Campbell (@tradeandmoney) analyzes how he won the 2023 Astral Codex Ten forecasting competition.
Part III: Saul Munn explains how to organize the forecasting community
0:11: Pratik introduces VP segment
0:26: Pratik introduces Campbell segment
1:05: Pratik introduces Munn segment
4:09: VP segment begins
8:43: 2028 considerations
18:13: Campbell segment begins
22:55: Expertise and prediction
28:10: Interview with Munn begins
28:45: The importance of in-person events
29:00: Manifest's origins
30:46: The political gambling community
32:11: Transitioning from an online community
34:04: How to organize the forecasting community
36:05: University clubs
37:06: Reluctance to organize events
38:15: EA Global
40:59: Low bar to community-buildingBet on who Trump will select as his running mate at Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com.
SUPPORT US:
Patreon: www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers
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Twitter: www.twitter.com/ssgamblers
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Pratik Chougule previews Manifest 2024.
Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1) and Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) negotiate a side bet on whether Trump will select Tim Scott, Doug Burgum, or Marco Rubio as his running mate. They discuss how Trump will make the decision and when he'll announce it.
Timestamps
0:09: Pratik introduces segment on Trump VP selection
1:44: Manifest 2024
7:18: Episode on VP nomination begins
7:43: What are SSG Title Belt Championships?
9:37: How Ben Freeman won the SSG Title Belt
11:56: Ben's proposed side bet on Trump's VP selection
13:36: Alex Chan's background
15:38: OpenBet/DonBest
19:26: How Alex got into political gambling
20:49: Political nerds vs. professional gamblers
22:36: Ben and Alex negotiate theie side bet
27:09: How Trump will select his VP
30:10: Loyalty considerations
32:21: Trump's strength in GOP
34:48: Will Trump penalize those who ran against him?
35:32: When will Trump announce the pick?
36:38: How deep is Trump's VP bench?
40:09: Has Trump already decided?
Follow SSG on Twitter: @ssgamblers
Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com
Attend Manifest, a festival celebrating predictions, markets, and mechanisms, hosted by Manifold Markets. June 7-9 at Lighthaven Campus, Berkeley, CA. Tickets are available at https://www.manifest.is/#tickets. Use the discount code SSG10 to get 10% of the ticket price.
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The CFTC has proposed a new rule that would restrict betting on election markets. Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield do a deep dive into the CFTC's deliberations.
Timestamps
0:00: Introduction
6:11: Interview with Bransfield begins
8:50: CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam is spending political capital on the issue
10:14: What is rulemaking?
11:24: Behnam's statement
11:48: Concerns about CFTC staff time on election contracts
14:25: Conflict of interest accusations against Kristin Johnson
17:34: Senator Tommy Tuberville's involvement
20:02: Goldsmith-Romero's views
25:13: Mersinger's dissent
27:38: Pham's dissent
31:10: Discord at the CFTC
32:01: Questions about CFTC enforcement
35:41: CFTC's power and resources
37:58: Behnam's political ambition
41:06: Pratik's critique of Mersinger's dissent
45:12: Pratik's impressions from attending CFTC meeting in person
Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com
Attend Manifest, a festival celebrating predictions, markets, and mechanisms, hosted by Manifold Markets. June 7-9 at Lighthaven Campus, Berkeley, CA. Tickets are available at https://www.manifest.is/#tickets. Use the discount code SSG10 to get 10% of the ticket price.
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London-based political gambler Pip Moss joins SSG to discuss Rishi Sunak's political future.
Timestamps
4:03: Interview with Pip begins
4:11: Pip's background
11:02: What went wrong for Sunak?
21:35: How election timing is determined in UK
26:00: When an election can constitutionally be held
27:22: Current market prices on timing of UK election
31:04: Impact of U.S. elections on UK election timing
34:55: Will Sunak be out before next elections?
39:36: Will Sunak quit?
40:21: Could Sunak be pushed out by his party?
Trade on Sunak and the next UK elections at Polymarket.com:
https://polymarket.com/event/rishi-sunak-out-before-next-uk-election?tid=1716178359054
https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-uk-election-be-held/uk-election-in-august-or-earlier?tid=1716178417342Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers
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Every year, Star Spangled Gamblers hosts the Golden Modelos—an awards show for the best and worst of political gambling in the previous year.
Abhi Kylasa (AENews) and Vanilla Vice return to the show to discuss which nominees should make the ballot.
Timestamps
0:00: Pratik introduces the Golden Modelos and why they matter
5:56: Vice introduces the Golden Modelos
6:53: Pratik explains the Golden Modelos process
8:33: Best Market
9:27: Room temperature superconductor
10:15: Will 2023 be the hottest year market
11:23: Best Trade
11:27: Bonding the Bitcoin ETF market
12:33: Domer buying Ramaswamy at 500-1
12:49: Ian Bezek recommending buying Javier Milei
13:05: Gaeten Dugas buying Taylor Swift to be number one song
13:12: Domer debt limit profits
13:17: Worst Trade
14:19: Mr. Beast subscriber count
14:44: MagaVacuum side betting that DeSantis won't run for president
15:05: Polymarket user losing $100k on Trump reinstatement
15:21: Abe Kurland side bets on Ramaswamy
17:21: Best Shitposter
19:06: Domer's shitposting
19:56: RelayThief's shitposting
20:44: Rookie of the Year
21:12: Naman Mehndiratta
22:39: Manifold Markets
23:20: Betting platforms
23:48: TheWinner
25:29: Trader of the Year
25:46: ANoland
26:07: Gaeten Dugas
27:59: Jonathan Zubkoff (ZubbyBadger)
28:33: Doug Campbell
29:05: Worst Pump
31:04: Kalshi election contracts
31:15: Hamas control of Gaza
32:00: Trump third indictment
32:44: Semiconductor yes holders
33:40: RFK Democratic nominee
33:46: AI to win Time Person of the Year
34:22: Best News Source
34:41: Politico Punchbowl
35:00: PredictIt comments
35:28: The Information's coverage of OpenAI
35:50: RacetotheWH by Logan Phillips
37:29: CSP Discord
38:36: Service to Political Gambling
38:36: PredictIt
39:50: Biggest Rules Cuck
39:56: Government Shutdown
40:33: Lower case "trump" versus upper case "Trump"
41:23: "widespread flooding" in Los Angeles
42:19: submarine debris
43:04: Trump indictment on March 31
43:48: U.S. rescue of Hamas hostages
44:19: Biggest Rules Dispute
44:50: Did Israel have advanced knowledge of Hamas attack
45:59: Postscript
46:17: Abe Kurland's response to Worst Bet nomination
47:53: CSP vs. CatClan Discords
Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market at polymarket.com
Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers
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Hemma Kilawan, a member of the SSG team, analyzes whether and when Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will get engaged.
Timestamps
0:40: Pratik explains why SSG is covering Taylor Swift markets and how they relate to political gambling
3:50: Pratik thanks a Patreon sponsor and why his contribution is important
8:15: Interview with Hemma begins
9:28: Hemma's impressions of political gambling
9:58: Can political gambling reach beyond its target demographics?
11:12: Taylor Swift as a political actor
16:18: Polymarket markets on Taylor Swift
16:59: Is the Swift-Kelce relationship real?
19:04: How to research Taylor Swift relationship gossip
20:56: Swift-Kelce relationship timeline
24:34: Swift's past relationships
27:57: The Eras Tour
31:23: Kelce's public statements
32:02: Do they want kids?
35:23: Trading strategies for the Swift engagement market
40:13: Will Taylor Swift be pregnant this year?
44:48: How political betting spurs interest in topicsSUPPORT US
Patreon: www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers
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VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: www.starspangledgamblers.com
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Doug Campbell returns to SSG to provide an update on the war in Ukraine.
Doug is the founder and CEO of Insight Prediction, an expert on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a whale trader himself.
Doug argues that the war has become a stalemate and provides advice on how to trade on this reality.
0:42: Doug's background
0:52: Doug's SSG interview about his time in Russia https://youtu.be/BZ0BbIbMcYg?si=Hr-jrGmlmi3LX9O21:11: Doug's talk on war markets at Manifest https://youtu.be/YrhsSohbRO4?si=07mDDuDKZRE2i9Y4
1:32: Manifest conference 2024
4:33: Interview begins
5:17: High-level update on the war
13:23: Ukrainian intelligence before the war
14:37: U.S. intelligence estimates on Ukraine
18:12: Optimism on both sides of the word
19:21: Sanctions against Russia
22:58: Odds of Putin being assassinated
24:23: Russian involvement in Israel-Hamas conflict
25:14: Impact of a Trump victory
26:02: Western aid to Ukraine
28:01: Odds of Putin leaving office
29:48: Odds of Russian nuclear escalation
31:00: How to trade ceasefire markets
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers
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Saul Munn is one of the world's leading experts on building the forecasting community. He is the Co-Founder of Optic Forecasting and the Lead Organizer of the Manifest conference.
In Part 1, Saul joins the show to discuss which communities comprise the emerging forecasting community.
In Part 2, Brian Darling, former counsel to Senator Rand Paul, returns to assess the Tennessee Senator Marsha Blackburn's odds of becoming Trump's VP pick.
In Part 3, Nathan Young returns to the show to advise on how to short AI hype in betting markets.
0:00: Pratik introduces the segment with Saul Munn
1:24: Saul's disclaimer on conflicts of interest1:56: Manifest Conference 2024
3:26: Intro for Brian Darling segment on the GOP VP nominee market
4:16: How to trade on the GOP VP nomination
5:08: Intro to interview with Nathan Young
9:03: Interview with Saul begins
9:26: The importance of community in the political betting space
11:00: Optic forecasting clubs
12:44: How Saul became interested in the forecasting community
13:25: Manifest Conference
13:46: Diversity in the forecasting community
14:32: Who is in the broader forecasting community?
14:56: Destiny's role in the forecasting community
16:57: The types of people who are interested in forecasting
19:44: Differences between Washington politics and the forecasting community
20:40: Differences between the political betting community and the forecasting community
21:18: Communities interested in forecasting
21:47: Communities that could be interested in forecasting
24:34: Why some communities resist forecasting
28:20: Segment with Brian Darling begins
28:27: Kim Reynolds's VP odds
29:06: Marsha Blackburn's VP odds
30:05: Swing state VP contenders
31:26: Segment with Nathan Young begins
31:59: Taxing bad predictions
33:46: Shorting AI enthusiasm in political betting markets
34:47: Irrational pricing in Time Person of the Year markets40:12: Hedge funds and AI
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