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- The DJIA outperforms the NASDAQ by 9% after posting its best October in history
- Corporate earnings for value stocks hold up as earnings for growth stocks tumble
- Interest rates on bonds continue to remain high as the yield curve continues to show deeper inversions/recession warnings
- American Express reports consumer loan balances up 28.9% year-over-year as inflation continues to impact the consumer
- Value stocks will outperform growth stocks for years
- All recent economic data shows a weak economy and stubbornly high inflation
- Republicans will likely sweep the midterms, which will be welcomed by Wall Street as investors typically like gridlock in Washington
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- Stocks get clobbered on Friday to finish a very volatile week on Wall Street
- CPI inflation data comes in twice as high as economists expected as Retail Sales data shows consumer continues to weaken with the economy
- Cyclical and growth stocks continue to get hammered with interest rates and bond yields continuing to rise
- US Dollar Index reaches new high on the year as investors blindly bet on more rate hikes / peak inflation
- Tom Lee and CNBC analysts have been completely wrong on anything and everything in markets this year
- Gold continues to outperform everything (S&P 500 / DOW / NASDAQ / Bonds / Bitcoin) as yellow metal flies below the radar
- OPEC production cuts keep oil prices propped up amid recession fears
- Pepsi reports 17% Y-o-Y increase in product pricing as they beat earnings estimates along with JP Morgan, Wells Fargo
- The Federal Reserve is behind the inflation curve more now than they were at the start of 2022
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- Nonfarm Payroll Report causes ugly sell off for stocks
- Some of CNBC analysts' favorite stocks have been clobbered this year with more downside to come
- Extremely high auto loan growth shows how weak the consumer is and how easy credit conditions are continuing to cause inflation
- S&P 500 is forming very bearish technical patterns as fundamentals for stocks continue to worsen
- If corporate earnings don't take down the stock market, inflation & higher interest rates will
- US bond market continues to show major weakness as yield curve inverts even more with rising rates across the board
- Labor market is much weaker beneath the surface and so is the US economy
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- Stocks close the week with big losses to finish worst September for stocks since 2008
- Higher interest rates could cause a lost decade for stock and bond investors, 60/40 portfolio having second-worst year ever (1931)
- Bank of England becomes first major central bank to pivot from its inflation fighting policies
- The bond market will continue to drag the stock market down, Fed pivot becomes more imminent
- The Fed has pricked the debt bubble it created in 2008, Financial Crisis close on the horizon
- Inflation is only just getting started, input costs and slowing growth putting downward pressure on stocks
- Stagflation will make stock and bond returns resemble the 1970s decade
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- Stocks make new yearly lows as S&P 500 closes the week down 23% / NASDAQ down 31% in 2022
- Powell delivers hawkish speech with 75 bps interest rate hike, projects pain for labor market and the economy
- Businesses are still experiencing cost pressures that they will pass on to customers in 2023
- Interest rates will derail the housing and stock market, but not inflation
- Mortgage rates have only just started their rapid rise, a substantial housing market correction is imminent
- Stocks are still way too expensive historically and are headed much lower in coming months
- Bulls throw in the towel and reduce S&P 500 price targets, but still remain clueless on market risks
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- US stocks post massive weekly decline on recession fears and higher inflation data
- FedEx posts 33% miss on earnings, CEO warns of global recession as company lays off 34,500 employees
- All economic data is showing stagflation across the global economy as recession gets worse with rising inflation pressures
- Investors still remain complacent to how high interest rates will rise, bonds/stocks/houses still remain completely overpriced (30-40%)
- Prices are 15.4% higher in past 27 months as measured by CPI, despite the government's effort to conceal the real housing market inflation
- Mortgage rates have increased the cost of home ownership by 42%
- Foreign investors are showing less buying demand in US Treasuries and US stocks, leading to higher bond yields despite the Fed's reluctance to sell its bond holdings
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- Listen to the Perfect Spiral football podcast at https://open.spotify.com/show/1q3PEgbgV1qrbO7fEK6TbU?si=2e32ce8e9d794d47
- ECB hikes interest rates with surprise 0.75% increase
- Friday's bear market rally will likely be short-lived
- QE was the Fed's way of causing a wealth effect to stimulate the economy, QT will reverse the wealth effect and cause stock prices to fall
- ARKK and the NASDAQ will suffer the most from higher interest rates
- Gold is a much safer asset than bonds and is outperforming all stock market averages in 2022
- Kroger stock pops 7% on earnings as consumers trade down to lower quality stores and try to stretch their budgets
- Stock earnings will likely hold up relatively well in Q4 but stock multiples will come down anyway -
- Follow the Perfect Spiral football podcast at https://open.spotify.com/show/1q3PEgbgV1qrbO7fEK6TbU?si=2dcf3686fda64ea8
- Investors continue to believe economy is strong despite numerous weak economic data releases, consumer confidence being the outlier
- August Non-Farm Payroll report shows economy added 315,000 jobs, most of which are second-part time jobs as unemployment rate rises to 3.7%
- Housing market continues to slow as home price increases come to a halt
- More high inflation data comes in for both the US and European countries
- The S&P 500 declines 6.5% in one week as the market starts fearing higher rates
- The Fed has started shrinking its balance sheet slightly ($8.85T to $8.82T), causing bond yields to rip higher
- Gold is down 6% on the year, outperforming the S&P, NASDAQ, and ARKK fund dramatically
- Gold mining stocks have huge upside potential relative to downside risk at current prices
- CNBC features mostly clueless analysts and perma-bull investors that don't have any understanding of economics -
- Subscribe to Perfect Spiral on Spotify at https://open.spotify.com/show/1q3PEgbgV1qrbO7fEK6TbU?si=c50c0463c45144df
- Stocks suffer major losses Friday as 495 of 500 S&P 500 stocks trade lower
- Only oil posts weekly gain as stocks, bonds, gold & cryptos sell-off
- Jerome Powell delivers hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, investors now have to discount much higher interest rates in September & October
- Widespread economic data shows the economy is coming to a major slowdown
- The cyclical trade is is dead
- Recession does not indicate lower prices despite popular belief among investors
- Student loan forgiveness is immoral and will cause much higher inflation for several reasons
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- S&P 500 snaps 4-week winning streak as new inflation data in Europe & UK and FOMC minutes spook investors
- The stock market is likely heading much lower from here as this bear market rally is losing steam
- Housing sector continues to slow as rising rates drag demand, bond market continues to signal recession
- Walmart & Target earnings tell the real story of the consumer as higher-income households change shopping trends
- Inflation Reduction Act is already causing inflation to get much worse
- 1% share buyback tax is causing businesses like Apple to buy back stock aggressively in 2022
- Global auto market being impacted by drop in demand coupled with higher materials/labor costs
- Sovereign wealth funds own approximately 3% of the entire US stock market
- Perfect Spiral Podcast available on Spotify at https://open.spotify.com/show/1q3PEgbgV1qrbO7fEK6TbU?si=c860490a46284cd6
- Stay in Step Veteran Ministry Podcast available on Spotify at https://open.spotify.com/show/0k9mS4myGWY3GjasiyAoC1?si=d5505dc239c34cc6
- Subscribe to True North Market Research's Investor Newsletter at truenorthmarketresearch.substack.com for daily market updates and deeper investment analysis
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- Subscribe to Thinking Long & Short's Investor Newsletter at truenorthmarketresearch.substack.com
- Subscribe to Perfect Spiral on Spotify at https://open.spotify.com/show/1q3PEgbgV1qrbO7fEK6TbU?si=c50c0463c45144df
- S&P 500 rises by 3% this week on hopes inflation is gone and interest rates won't go up much more
- CPI & PPI inflation data comes in much lower than prior months
- US Dollar Index may have peaked as the ECB & BOE have more room to raise interest rates
- Coinbase / Wynn / Bumble / Roblox earnings miss while Disney / Dutch Bros / H&R Block report strong earnings quarters
- There a two different consumers in this market - the lower class and lower-half of the middle class/the upper-half of the middle class and upper-middle class
- Businesses that cater to the lower-end consumer may be safer investments than investors are discounting as they will gain more market share in a recession as consumers trade down to less expensive goods/services
- Investors are selling bonds for the wrong reason as the bond market flashes signs of a deeper recession on the horizon
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- Subscribe to Thinking Long & Short's Investor Newsletter at truenorthmarketresearch.substack.com
- Subscribe to Perfect Spiral on Spotify at https://open.spotify.com/show/1q3PEgbgV1qrbO7fEK6TbU?si=c50c0463c45144df
- July Non-Farm Payrolls beat expectations by a wide margin as people take part-time jobs
- JOLTS jobs report and labor force participation destroys strong labor market narrative
- Average hourly earnings up 5.2% year-over-year while inflation is up 9.1% year-over-year
- 233 million credit cards were opened in Q2 as household debt skyrockets to record $16 Trillion
- DoorDash beats on revenues, misses on earnings
- Cloud businesses (Google / Microsoft / Amazon) could see big slowdowns in revenues
- S&P 500 is no longer diversified as top 6 stocks make up 25% of the index, creating systemic market risk
- Most value stocks remain undervalued
- Bonds are return-free risk
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- Subscribe to True North Market Research's Daily Investor Newsletter @ truenorthmarketresearch.substack.com for daily market commentary and investment research
- Walmart misses earnings on slowdown in consumer discretionary spending
- McDonald's, Chipotle, Newmont all experiencing higher labor costs despite decline in real wages
- New & Pending Home Sales Data comes in at worst levels in over a decade
- US economy is officially in a recession
- Apple earnings and a dovish Fed allow markets to rally for the stock market's best week since 2020
- The Fed will now remain data dependent for raising interest rates to stop inflation as US economy continues to weaken
- Tons of US economic data releases this week show economy will continue to experience much worse recession
- Inflation is going to get much worse despite recession and economic slowdown
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- Subscribe to our Daily Investor Newsletter @ truenorthmarketresearch.substack.com
- ECB increases rates by 50 bps as eurozone reports 8.6% inflation
- Earnings continue to slow for majority of corporations
- Housing market starts to slow along with auto sector
- The more interest rates increase, the worse this recession is going to get
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- Subscribe to our Daily Investment Newsletter @ truenorthmarketresearch.substack.com
- Stocks rally on recession warning signs as markets hope a recession can cure inflation
- CPI shows an annualized 15.6% rate of acceleration in prices, June prices rise 9.1% year-over-year
- Inflation is eating most of the disposable income for middle-class consumers
- Auto stocks face serious problems moving forward with tightening credit conditions
- Yield curve inversions in the bond market signal recession, bonds still not pricing in long-term inflation expectations
- Investors don't seem to understand supply and demand economics
- A significant spike in interest rates would lead to a substantial increase in unemployment
- The next recession will be anything but mild, much more severe than investors expect
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- https://truenorthmarketresearch.substack.com/ - 50% Off Subscriptions for our Investor Newsletter if you sign-up by July 13
- Recession warning signs cause stocks to rise on the week in hopes the Fed can slow down its inflation fight and revert back to stimulus
- June non-farm payrolls come in higher than expectations as unemployment rate is unchanged, job openings remain above 11 million
- Consumer credit numbers drop significantly from last month, slowing recession signs
- The recent move in the US Dollar Index shows market sentiment is fearful as traders brace for recession
- US economic activity is highly dependent on China's GDP
- Sri Lanka has sovereign-debt crisis as their currency experiences hyper-inflation
- Free trade enables the world to become wealthier, but bad actors can cause pain on emerging market economies
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- S&P 500 has worst 6-month start to year since 1970
- Bond on pace for their worst year in history
- S&P 500 has gone from trading at 36x earnings to 17x earnings in past 12 months
- Corporate earnings likely to contract with lower margins and financially weaker consumers
- The Fed will care about the stock market if it drops another 20% from here
- A Fed pivot to stimulate the economy will likely be bearish for growth stocks
- Recessions only do not cure inflation
- $DXY rally is not sustainable on a long-term basis
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- Biden announces that he will be prompting Congress to suspend federal gas tax
- Democrats want Green New Deal policies until it hurts their pocketbooks
- Oil prices sell-off on recession fears
- Oil supply will remain extremely tight for years
- A lack of capital investment in energy and materials companies is fueling shortages in the economy
- We are heading directly into stagflation, where recession and inflation will get much worse together
- Subscribe to True North Market Research's daily investor newsletter @ truenorthmarketresearch.substack.com
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- Subscribe to True North Market Research's newsletter at truenorthmarketresearch.substack.com for detailed daily market briefings
- Fed raises rates by 75 bps, still gives dovish outlook for future interest rate decisions
- Retail sales decline by 0.3% for May
- The Fed will likely only raise rates so long as the unemployment levels remain low
- Major real estate brokerages join in on crypto and fintech companies on announcing major lay-offs/hiring freezes
- There is a lot of complacency regarding the current consumer credit bubbles
- Only 6% of 2700 ETFs have seen returns higher than the CPI over the past 12 months
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- Subscribe to True North Market Research's investor newsletter at https://truenorthmarketresearch.substack.com/
- Stocks and bonds get clobbered on WSJ article anticipating 75 bps rate hike Wed
- 496 of 500 of the S&P 500 stocks traded lower on Monday, cyclical stocks leading the declines
- Bonds are now down 11% YTD, 8% more than their worst year ever
- Home ownership costs are up 21% this year and mortgage rates are twice as high as they were in 2021
- Gold is outperforming the S&P 500 by 19% in 2022
- Cryptos are the worst performing asset YTD
- The Fed will likely give up their inflation fight if recession becomes more severe
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