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The past week saw markets digest the mixed signals about the implications of Donald Trump's election victory and early policy moves.
In brief
Equities and Currency Volatility: U.S. equities surged early in the week, driven by sectors like financials and energy, but the rally faded as markets began reevaluating the "Trump trade." Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar hit a two-year high before pulling back slightly.
Earnings Growth Paradox: Companies with strong international exposure, like Alphabet and Nvidia, are leading U.S. earnings growth. However, Trump's "America First" policies could challenge their success if trade restrictions and tariffs are implemented aggressively.
Central Banks on Alert: Inflation risks are causing Central Banks to rethink their policies. The Fed’s December rate cut odds dropped, while the RBA and other global banks are taking a more cautious approach to easing.
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Following last week’s special Market Sense Check, where Jonathan Ramsay and Andrew Hunt discussed the potential global economic impact of the U.S. election results, we’re starting to see how markets are reacting as the dust begins to settle.
In Brief:
Election-Fueled Market Movements: Following Trump’s win, markets initially reacted with optimism, sending U.S. equities, the dollar, and Treasury yields sharply higher. However, the “Trump trade” lost momentum as investors reassessed the potential policy impacts.
Global Currency Shifts: The U.S. dollar’s early gains reversed by week’s end, with the Australian dollar emerging as a strong performer, gaining nearly 1.6%. Other currencies, like the Japanese yen and British pound, also strengthened slightly.
Sector and Regional Reactions: While U.S. small-cap stocks outperformed, European equities remained subdued, highlighting regional concerns about potential tariffs.
Central Bank Cuts: The U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England both cut rates by 25 basis points last week. While the Fed indicated no immediate plans for further cuts, the Bank of England emphasised that any future adjustments would proceed cautiously.
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Markets remained steady this past week as they await the outcome of the U.S. elections.
Topics Covered:U.S Market Economic indicatorsQ3 Tech Earnings Asset class movements from the last week Long-term economic and market themes to watch for the next decadeGet access to the charts: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/markets-hold-steady-with-eyes-on-the-us-elections-and-economic-updates
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Last week, markets saw a mix of outcomes, with Europe and Japan experiencing declines, while the UK, U.S, and Australia showed resilience.
Topics Covered:Australian Market Resilience Early Q3 Reporting SeasonAsset class movements from the last week Long-term economic and market themes to watch for the next decadeGet access to the charts: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/markets-mixed-as-australia-shows-resilience-amid-global-slowdown-signals
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Last week, markets remained resilient despite several events that could have been expected to have a greater impact.
Topics Covered:U.S Market PerformanceA solid start to the financial year in Australia Asset class movements from the last week Long-term economic and market themes to watch for the next decadeGet access to the charts: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/markets-steady-amid-geopolitical-tensions-and-inflation-concerns
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The past week saw global markets adjust expectations for the pace of interest rate cuts from major central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, following a much stronger than anticipated US jobs report on Friday. However, some of this repricing reversed early this week as disappointing fiscal stimulus measures from China and geopolitical tensions weighed on risk sentiment.
Topics Covered:
The "Superb" US Jobs Report and its implications in marketChina’s Disappointing Stimulus Asset class movements from the last week Long-term economic and market themes to watch for the next decadeGet access to the charts: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/strong-u-s-jobs-report-and-chinas-disappointing-stimulus
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The final week of September saw markets grappling with geopolitical tensions, surprise elections and ongoing speculation about central bank rate cuts.
Topics Covered:
China’s Stimulus BoostSeptember’s Market Performance Asset class movements from the last week Long-term economic and market themes to watch for the next decadeGet access to the charts: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/how-elections-central-banks-and-geopolitical-tensions-moved-markets
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In this week’s market sense check we cover what’s affecting the market in short-term, the mid-term and what may unravel in the long term.
Topics Covered:Fed's Larger Rate Cut Sparks UncertaintyGlobal Markets and China’s Stimulus PackageAustralia’s Strong Jobs Report and RBA StanceAsset class movements from the last week Long-term economic and market themes to watch for the next decadeGet access to the charts: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/markets-brush-off-fed-rate-cut-as-the-outlook-remains-uncertain
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In this week’s market sense check we cover what’s affecting the market in short-term, the mid-term and what may unravel in the long term.
Topics Covered:
Fed Rate cut speculation heats upMarket signals in response The resilience of small companies Get access to the charts: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/fed-debates-rate-cut-amid-mixed-economic-signals
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In this week’s market sense check we cover what’s affecting the market in short-term, the mid-term and what may unravel in the long term.
Topics Covered:
An overview of market performance in AugustNasdaq’s sharp drop and tech sector concernsWeak U.S. job growth and its market implicationsActive manager underperformance and key factors driving itLong-term economic and market themes to watch for the next decadeGet access to the charts: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/cooling-job-growth-falling-yields-and-market-volatility
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This past week saw a mix of economic data and corporate earnings that drove market sentiment.
In brief:
Mixed Results from Australia's August Earnings Season: While the banking sector showed strong performance despite some scepticism about valuations, mining and energy companies faced significant challenges. Meanwhile, consumer spending remained robust in some areas, but there were signs of caution in the services sector, highlighting the uneven economic landscape.
Nvidia's Earnings Disappoint Despite Strong Results: Nvidia's earnings report, one of the most anticipated this season, exceeded expectations by doubling sales and earnings from a year ago. However, the stock still saw a sell-off, reflecting investor concerns about the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending.
Global Economic Signals and the Upcoming August Jobs Report: With signs of both resilience and slowdown in global markets, all eyes are on this Friday's August jobs report. It could be pivotal in determining the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the market's trajectory for the rest of the year. Investors are hoping for a "Goldilocks" reading that indicates a gradual labour market slowdown without signalling an imminent downturn.
Get access to the charts: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/august-reporting-season-the-misses-and-beats
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Financial Markets Grapple with Implications of Fed's Shift in SignalsLast week saw financial markets grapple with the implications of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. In brief:
Federal Reserve Signals Rate Cuts: Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated "the time has come for policy to adjust," indicating the Fed is prepared to begin cutting interest rates. This dovish shift sparked a rally in equities and a decline in bond yields on Friday.
Mixed Economic Data: U.S. durable goods orders rebounded strongly in July, up 9.9% month-on-month, but this was largely due to volatile aircraft orders. Core capital goods shipments, a key indicator of business investment, fell 0.4%, suggesting potential weakness in Q3 GDP.
Global Growth Concerns: The German Ifo business climate index fell to 86.6 in August, with the current conditions reading at its weakest level since August 2020, highlighting ongoing concerns about European economic growth.
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In brief:
Strong Global Equity Performance: Global equity markets posted their best performance in nine months, driven by hopes of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and encouraging economic reports such as lower-than-expected inflation and strong retail sales.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Recent economic data has caused investors to reconsider the likelihood of a 50bps cut at the Fed's next meeting in September. While a 25bps reduction remains highly likely, the probability of a larger cut has decreased from 50% to approximately 25% over the past week.
Australian Corporate Earnings Overview: The Australian reporting season has provided mixed insights into the economic landscape, with a balanced number of companies exceeding, meeting, or falling short of modest expectations. Notably, AMP and Telstra Group exceeded expectations while Suncorp Group fell short, highlighting ongoing challenges within its operations.
Get access to the chart: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/equity-markets-rally-on-rate-cut-hopes-and-positive-economic-data
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The past week in markets was significantly calmer, with the S&P 500 reporting a 10.8% year-over-year earnings growth—its highest since Q4 2021—the focus now shifts to the Australian reporting season.
In brief:
US Earnings Performance: The S&P 500's year-over-year earnings growth was driven by strong results in the Utilities and Information Technology sectors, highlighting corporate strength despite high interest rates and political challenges.
Inflation Trends and Federal Reserve Actions: Recent US Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in below expectations, strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts as early as September. This anticipation builds as markets await the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, which will play a critical role in shaping the Fed's rate path in the face of fluctuating economic signals.
Australian Market Outlook: The onset of Australia's earnings season reveals a modest decline in profits among the top 200 listed companies, with an expected drop of 2-3% for the 2023-24 financial year. This downturn marks the end of unusually high profits seen during the pandemic. Current economic pressures are particularly evident in retail, with companies like JB Hi-Fi and Myer revealing the impacts of constrained consumer spending.
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Several unexpected events during the first week of August led to big moves in the markets
In brief:
Surprise Interest Rate Rise: The Bank of Japan started raising rates in an unexpected move after keeping them very low for a long timeWeak Jobs Report: An unexpected US jobs report on Friday triggered the ‘Sahm Rule’ rule, seen as an indicator of potential recession when the unemployment rate rises >0.5% in a 3-month periodEquity markets reacted negatively: On Monday, markets plunged, especially in Japan which at one point was down 20% in local currency terms, in what appeared to be an unwind of the yen carry trade.Find out what happened, why and what it means now.
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Last week saw markets treading cautiously as investors digested a flurry of earnings reports and economic data.
In Brief:
Shift in Market Dynamics: The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks rose nearly 3% last week, outperforming major indexes like the Nasdaq and S&P 500, which struggled to stay positive. This performance continues to fuel discussions about a potential rotation from mega-cap tech stocks to smaller companies.
Tech Sector Volatility: Despite strong earnings from tech giants Alphabet and Tesla, their forward guidance raised investor concerns. Notably, Tesla's shares fell by 12% following news of a delayed robo-taxi rollout, contributing to a broader tech sell-off.
Contrasting Global Economies: The US economy showed strong growth, expanding by 2.8% in Q2, which surpassed expectations and eased some recession concerns. In contrast, Europe displayed weaker economic signs, particularly in Germany where both manufacturing and services are contracting. The Bank of Canada cut rates as expected and speculation is mounting that the Fed may follow suit in September.
Read the summ: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/a-week-of-mixed-market-movements-small-caps-rise-as-tech-wavers
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This past week has shown broad declines across major asset classes, challenging the optimism around peaking inflation and potential central bank easing.
In brief:
U.S. Economic Indicators: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs due to cooling inflation expectations and possible Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, following news that the Biden administration is considering tighter restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, the Nasdaq faced a sharp decline, dropping 3.7%.
Global Market trends: Despite easing inflation, economic data suggests a slowing global economy. Major stock indices around the world experienced notable declines; Japan's Nikkei 225 slumped by 2.71%, while European stocks, including the Euro Stoxx 50, German DAX, and French CAC 40, dropped by 0.7% to 1.1%. Emerging market stocks were flat.
Australian Market Trends Downward: The S&P/ASX 300 ended the week down by 1.40%. Energy stocks took the hardest hit, dropping by 6.45%. The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries, representing smaller cap stocks, fell by 2.71%.
Read the article: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/a-week-of-contrasts-in-global-markets-from-record-highs-to-renewed-growth-concerns
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In brief:
Falling US Inflation Sparks Hope: Last week's US CPI report revealed a quicker than expected drop in inflation, raising hopes for potential early Federal Reserve rate cuts, leading to a significant drop in US bond yields.
Global Political Developments Impact Markets: In France, Marine Le Pen's party did not secure a majority, easing concerns about a radical shift in politics, while the UK's better than expected GDP growth in May provided a slight economic uplift amidst ongoing fiscal policy discussions.
Anticipation of Global Rate Cuts: With the US possibly heading for rate cuts following encouraging inflation data, other global central banks, including the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, signalled possible easing.
Read the update:https://www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/us-inflation-decline-triggers-market-shift
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In brief:
Bond Market Fluctuations: Global bond yields initially surged, driven by rising U.S. debt concerns and political tensions in France. However, yields later declined following dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who expressed comfort with ongoing disinflationary trends in the U.S., despite stronger-than-expected job opening data suggesting a still tight labour market.
Central Bank Directions: Mixed economic indicators such as the U.S. ISM Services index falling into contraction sparked market optimism about potential rate cuts. The Reserve Bank of Australia remains in wait-and-see mode amid confusing signals on consumption and inflation. The Bank of Canada is now seen as more likely to cut rates in July after unemployment rose.
Political Events Impacting Markets: The UK general election and France's legislative elections were focal points, with the UK's Labour party gaining a historic majority, expected to ensure fiscal continuity. France saw a fragmented outcome that prevented any single party from gaining a majority, thereby reducing the risk of radical policy changes.
Read the report:www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/delicately-balanced-markets-react-to-mixed-economic-signals-and-political-uncertainty
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Interest Rate Trends and Inflation Pressures: The financial year saw sharp rises in interest rates, particularly noticeable at the end of June 2024. Australia and Canada both reported unexpected increases in inflation, raising speculations about further rate hikes by central banks.
Impact of U.S. Presidential Debate on Markets: The first debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden introduced political uncertainties that rattled markets, influencing bond prices and increasing the likelihood of a populist fiscal policy shift in the U.S., which could involve lower taxes and higher government spending. Performance Divergence Across
Sectors and Asset Classes: Throughout the financial year, market performance varied significantly across sectors and asset classes. Tech and semiconductor stocks like NVIDIA drove the Nasdaq up by 30%, while traditional sectors and value stocks experienced modest gains.
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