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In this episode, we explore the inflation outlook for the Euro Area, honing in on whether medium-term inflation could once again fall short of the ECB's target, as it did before the pandemic.
While there’s little evidence in current data to suggest an imminent undershoot—thanks to robust wage growth, persistent service price inflation, and ample room for monetary policy easing—some of these factors may ease in the coming year. This makes it crucial to keep a close eye on potential risks of undershooting.
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Join us this week as we tackle a pressing issue facing the Euro Area: fiscal consolidation. With debt-to-GDP ratios near historic highs in many economies, reducing deficits is critical—but not without risks to economic growth.
Our special guest, Roel Beetsma, Professor of Macroeconomics at the University of Amsterdam, offers his insights on questions like:
Is there a way to cut deficits without hurting growth?
How does population aging impact public budgets and political pressures?
What new strains are digitalization and the green transition placing on Europe’s fiscal future?
And have we reached a breaking point in Europe’s fiscal stability culture?
Tune in for an in-depth discussion on these challenges and the difficult choices European policymakers are grappling with.
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Join us to dive into the challenges and transitions facing Europe’s car industry. Together with Valentin Mory, mobility expert from Natixis, we explore the shifting landscape of electric vehicles (EVs), China's lead in battery technology, and the future of internal combustion engines.
Will Europe keep pace with China’s rapid electrification? Can car manufacturers overcome regulatory hurdles and avoid costly fines? And what’s the real impact of upcoming tariffs on Chinese car imports?
Tune in for an in-depth analysis of the evolving auto industry, the latest on EV penetration rates, and what’s driving change across the globe.
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Have you ever wondered why Europe's economic growth seems stuck in slow motion?
Join us as we explore the mystery of Europe's lagging economic growth. We break down the complex factors at play from sluggish investment to slow productivity growth, discuss the struggle to keep pace with the US tech boom, and Europe's shortcomings in fostering innovation, particularly in the Information and Communication Technology sector.
Tune in as we dissect the numbers and analyze the policy challenges ahead for Europe.
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Join Dirk Schumacher and Klaus Adam on "The Week That Was in Europe" as they welcome Professor Andrei Levchenko, a leading expert on international trade, to discuss new insights into the gains from international trade, the benefits & drawbacks of tariffs + export subsidies, and international technology transfer.
Tune in to "The Week That Was in Europe" for an insightful discussion on the ever-evolving landscape of international trade, featuring expert analysis and real-world examples.
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We provide our perspective on the ECB’s policy meeting: markets expected the ECB's rate cut, the real focus was on the path for interest rates going forward.
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In this week's episode of The Week That Was in Europe, hosts Dirk Schumacher and Klaus Adam return from their summer break to analyze Germany's economic underperformance. Why has Europe’s largest economy stagnated post-pandemic, while its neighbors surge ahead? From sluggish consumer spending to declining investments and rising energy costs, they explore the driving factors behind Germany’s struggles. They also discuss the "second China shock," the challenges of transitioning to electric vehicles, and the looming risks of de-industrialization. Tune in to understand the forces shaping Germany's economic future.
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Today, we dive into the aftermath of the French parliamentary elections – a pivotal event that has captured the attention of financial markets and the broader public across Europe.
To help us navigate the complexities of the outcome and the future implications, we have a special guest, Hadrien Camatte. Hadrien is an expert on the French economy at Natixis and has been meticulously following every twist and turn of this election.
Before joining Natixis, Hadrien honed his expertise at a central bank in Paris and the French Treasury, where he held various positions.
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We dive into the transformative world of Artificial Intelligence and its impact on the financial sector and central banks. AI's rapid advancements and diverse applications are creating a veritable AI bonanza, reshaping the economy and financial systems globally.
Join us as we explore these changes with Hyun Shin from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Hyun Shin co-leads the Monetary and Economics Department at BIS and is a member of its Executive Committee. With a distinguished academic career, including positions at Princeton, the LSE, and Oxford, Hyun provides unique insights into the future of AI in finance.
Tune in for an enlightening conversation that uncovers the implications of AI as a general-purpose technology and its potential to transform central banking around the world.
Don't miss this episode—subscribe now and stay ahead in the AI revolution! 🎧
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In today's epsiode, we dive deep into the economic dynamics shaping the Eurozone focusing on a critical issue: inflation expectations.
We uncover what financial markets can reveal about the of future inflation and also discuss evidence coming from investor and household surveys.
We're thrilled to have Ricardo Reis join us today. Ricardo is the A.W. Phillips Professor at the London School of Economics and an esteemed expert on inflation expectations and inflation-linked financial instruments.
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In today's episode we dive into the complex world of state-based international lending. Recent years have seen a resurgence in cross-border state lending, highlighted by the significant financial support Ukraine has received from Western countries and China's growing role as a global lender. Additionally, central bank swap lines have become a common feature after the 2007/08 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Joining us is Christoph Trebesch from the Kiel Institute. Christoph is the Head of the Research Center on International Finance and Macroeconomics and a Professor of Macroeconomics at Kiel University. He will share his expert insights on this critical topic. Don’t miss it!
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Join us today as we delve into the results of the European elections and their far-reaching consequences. We have the pleasure of speaking with Sophia Russack from the Centre of European Policy Studies (CEPS) in Brussels. Sophia is an expert in European politics and policy making, making her the perfect guest to shed light on the European election outcomes and their implications. Don't miss this insightful discussion! Tune in now!
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The ECB has cut rates by 0.25% in its June meeting for the first time in many years. This happened despite forecasts of inflation having been revised slightly upwards. We review the reasoning behing this decision and the outlook for rates going forward.
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Join us for an insightful discussion with Roman Arjona, Chief Economist at the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs. We'll delve into the current state and future of Europe's Single Market, exploring how it compares to the US and the challenges it faces in a changing global trade landscape. Roman Arjona, also Vice-Chair of the OECD’s Committee for Industry, Innovation and Entrepreneurship, brings his expertise to shed light on these critical issues.
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Join us as we discuss the outlook for ECB policy rates for the upcoming June policy meeting and thereafter. We put perspective on recent Euro Area growth numbers, consumer spending dynamics, and the inflation outlook. While a June rate cut looks likely, uncertainty about policy rates beyond June appears substantial. Currently available data suggest, however, a sequence of rate cuts.
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Join our interesting discussion with Prof. Thiess Buettner, Chairman of the Independent Advisory Board of the German Stability Council, about fiscal policy challenges in Germany.
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Countries across Europe and the United States have witnessed a significant surge in government debt and interest rates in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. Join us as we engage in a conversation with Vítor Gaspar, Director of the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department, about possible stability risks confronting government finances and the need to manage these risks.
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The neutral rate is relevant for understaning the stance of monetary policy and for the fiscal outlook, as it determines the financing conditions for government debt. We explain how the neutral rate is defined, discuss its economic determinants and provide estimates of how it has changed since the pre-pandemic period. Increased government debt supply appears to have excerted substantial upward pressure on the neutral rate.
We make reference to the following papers:
Thiago Ferreira and Samer Shousha titled “The supply of safe assets and global interest rates” , Journal of International Economics, 2023.
Atif Mian, Ludwig Straub, and Amir Sufi. titled “What explains the decline in r*? Rising income inequality versus demographic shifts.” Proceedings of the Jackson Hole Symposium, 2021.
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We review the fiscal position of France, Germany, Italy and Spain, discuss the need for consolidation and how it could be implemented with minimal harm to output.
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Provided wage growth moderates and inflation develops as expected, the ECB will start cutting interest rates in June. We discuss the uncertainties around this outlook and recent headwinds on the inflation front.
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