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This week, we're looking back at the 2024 election and forward at the next administration.
To do that, we have Semafor's Dave Weigel on the show. He joined us shortly before the election to discuss each campaign's gun messaging. Now, he's back to sort through what worked, what didn't, and where things go from here.
Weigel agreed there probably wasn't enough detailed evidence to suss out exactly how well each message performed. But he said the recent downturn in Democratic support for handgun bans is probably tied to Kamala Harris emphasizing her Glock ownership. However, the fact handgun bans are so unpopular to begin with probably underscores how much her history of backing such bans drug her campaign down.
He also looked ahead at the new GOP-controlled federal government. Weigel said Donald Trump may be more motivated to undo what Joe Biden has done rather than push new gun-rights reforms of his own. He also said Congress is unlikely to pass significant new legislation but will be able to confirm a lot of pro-gun judges--though, he noted the GOP majority may be more fragile than it appears at first glance. Special Guest: Dave Weigel. -
Contributing writer Jake Fogleman and I break down new gun polling data from Gallup showing a massive decrease in support for a handgun ban amongst Democrats. We also unpack Gallup data showing a shrinking gender gap, but a widening partisan gap, among gun owners. Finally, we wrap up with a pair of significant gun-related state Supreme Court rulings out of Pennsylvania and Iowa dealing with state preemption and the ability to restrict gun rights for persons with a history of being involuntarily committed.
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This week, we have a new Senate Majority Leader and are getting a clearer picture of what the next Congress will look like. But what will it do on gun policy?
To answer that question, we have one of the preeminent congressional reporters on the show. Punchbowl co-founder John Bresnahan has been covering Congress for decades now. He knows all of the key players in Congress, including new Majority Leader John Thune.
Bresnahan said Thune had the strongest pro-gun record of the three Senators who ran for the majority leader role. He said John Cornyn's role in negotiating the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act hurt him in the race and may even have made the difference since it was a very close vote. He argued the entire Republican Senate leadership is strongly pro-gun now.
Still, Bresnahan doesn't necessarily believe there are going to be a lot of opportunities for pro-gun legislation in the next Congress. With a 53-vote majority and the filibuster likely to remain, there probably aren't any significant gun bills that can make it to President Donald Trump's desk.
However, there are other ways Congress could have a big impact on gun policy over the next eight years. He said the longest-lasting impact will likely come from judicial appointments, and he noted the GOP will probably control confirmations for all eight years of Trump's term. Special Guest: John Bresnahan. -
Contributing writer Jake Fogleman and I cover a significant new ruling out of Illinois, where a federal judge found that the state's ban on so-called assault weapons and large-capacity magazines is unconstitutional. We also cover the growing chorus of voices calling on President-elect Trump to dismantle President Biden's Office of Gun Violence Prevention, with the gun industry's trade group formally making the request this week. Finally, we mention the Senate Republican caucus' selection of South Dakota's John Thune for Majority Leader and what that says about gun policy.
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We have the topline election results, but we don't know everything for sure yet. Many House and some Senate races have yet to be called.
Still, what we do have is enough to give us a pretty good idea of what will be possible for gun policy under the new Republican Federal trifecta led by Donald Trump. That's why we've brought back Cam Edwards of Bearing Arms to help dissect what's likely from what's possible.
Cam said if the Republican Senate majority lands somewhere between 52 and 53, as it seems likely to, and they hold an equally slim House majority, there is little reason to think major gun bills are coming in the near future. Although, he also agreed the larger the Senate majority, the greater the odds Republicans nuke the filibuster and open up more legislative possibilities--even if he doesn't like the idea or think it's likely to happen.
Instead, Cam said the biggest movement on gun policy is likely to come through executive branch action. He predicted Trump would follow through on promises to undo the rules President Joe Biden has enacted, such as the pistol-brace and "ghost gun" bans. Same for firing Biden's ATF Director.
Cam was less certain about how far Trump might go with appointing a new director or pursuing his own pro-gun rules. He argued judicial appointments are likely to be the most impactful moves Trump will make when it comes to gun policy. He said Trump may end up appointing several more Supreme Court Justices, who will serve for decades.
Then, Cam gives his view on Trump's wild card nature and whether that could actually lead to some new gun restrictions as well. Or whether he's given up on trying to make any kind of deal with Democrats after the past four years.
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Contributing writer Jake Fogleman and I breakdown what we know so far about the results of the 2024 election, including the likely balance of power in Congress. We cover what that might mean for gun policy and how the national gun groups did in influencing that outcome with their election spending. We also cover a couple of key gun-related down ballot races that broke in favor of gun-control advocates and discussed why guns likely played a marginal role this cycle.
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The election is just days away. In fact, it's the day after this episode is released to the public.
The time to cover the daily developments on the campaign trail is over. Now, it's time to look ahead at what the realistic expectations on gun policy should be for a potential Trump or Harris administration. To do that, I've brought somebody from an outlet on nearly the opposite side of the spectrum from The Reload.
Jennifer Mascia has been a reporter at The Trace, a non-profit publication with ties to Everytown for Gun Safety, since it was founded. She is well-sourced inside the gun-control movement and closely follows gun politics news. She joins the show to help suss out the most likely policies Trump or Harris would pursue and by what means.
Mascia and I agreed legislation is the least likely area for change since Republicans are likely to gain a Senate majority regardless of who wins the presidency--but only a narrow majority. Instead, the real action will be in court appointments and executive actions. There, Harris may be more restrained by both a Republican Senate and the amount of gun action President Joe Biden has already undertaken. Trump is likely to continue judicial appointments in line with his first term while potentially firing the ATF Director Biden appointed and undoing his executive actions, though it's hard to say how far he'd expand beyond that.
Free Dispatch trial here: https://thedispatch.com/join-offer-reload/?utmsource=thereload&utmmedium=partnerships-podcast&utm_campaign=0924 Special Guest: Jennifer Mascia. -
Contributing writer Jake Fogleman and I cover the big races where the national gun groups are pouring their money into before polls close on election night. We also discuss an interesting new ruling upholding Washington DC’s magazine ban on unique grounds. We wrap up by covering Kamala Harris’ recent comments in a podcast appearance attempting to cast Donald Trump as a threat to the Second Amendment.
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This week, we're discussing the final fundraising numbers we're going to see from the gun groups ahead of the election.
To do that, we've got Hot Air's Ed Morrissey back on the show. He said he isn't surprised to see the gun-control groups outraising the NRA and its allies. He argued it would probably take several more cycles for former NRA donors to be comfortable enough to give to the movement again.
He was skeptical the money advantage will translate to a big electoral advantage at the end of the day, especially in the highest profile races. And he said gun-control ads leaning on abortion issues, while potentially understandable, is a sign the groups don't think gun control is a top priority. Although, he also said the ability of the gun-control groups to spend big in local and state races could have a significant impact.
He also gave his view of the effectiveness of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump's gun messaging in 2024, which was different from the views outlined by our previous guests, David French and Tim Miller. While neither Ed nor I make endorsements of candidates, we did briefly discuss our differing views of the dangers of either candidate.
Free Dispatch trial here: https://thedispatch.com/join-offer-reload/?utmsource=thereload&utmmedium=partnerships-podcast&utm_campaign=0924 Special Guest: Ed Morrissey. -
Contributing writer Jake Fogleman and I cover a pair of resurfaced clips from Kamala Harris’ tenure as San Francisco DA that show her taking a more pragmatic view of the Second Amendment and school security policy. We also discuss how party control of the House of Representatives next year could come down to a race in Maine where an incumbent Democrat’s new support for an assault weapon ban could cost him his seat. We finish the show with a round-up of stories dealing with an investigation into gunmakers sharing gun owners’ private data with political operatives, a Democratic Senate candidate’s range day campaign event going awry, and how the Second Circuit has again ruled on New York’s concealed carry restrictions.
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This week, we unfortunately have to talk about a story that comes with a content warning.
News of NRA CEO Doug Hamlin's involvement in the torture and killing of a cat during college resurfaced on Monday. Hamlin has denied "direct" involvement, but contemporaneous reporting indicates his role was more than ancillary. Cam Edwards of Bearing Arms joins the show to work out what this all means for the already-battered NRA.
Cam said the story is gruesome and will make it difficult for Hamlin to effectively reform the organization as he's said he wants to. But he also argued it may not stick to the NRA for longer than Hamlin is around, especially given the lightning-quick nature of the modern news cycle.
He also said the animal cruelty story may have had an impact on the group canceling its Georgia event with Donald Trump, but that might also be part of a broader trend of Trump canceling events. Still, he said the scandal is likely to hurt the NRA's efforts to rebound from its previous CEO's, as yet unsettled, corruption scandal. And it's becoming increasingly clear how much that's put them at a disadvantage against the gun-control groups when it comes to political spending.
We also discuss Elon Musk's recent pro-gun turn and whether he could become a counter to Michael Bloomberg's funding of gun-control groups.
Free Dispatch trial here: https://thedispatch.com/join-offer-reload/?utmsource=thereload&utmmedium=partnerships-podcast&utm_campaign=0924 Special Guest: Cam Edwards. -
Contributing writer Jake Fogleman and I cover new polling that finds the Supreme Court's Bruen decision is more popular than ever. We also talk about the Court's recent move to grant, vacate, and remand a lower court decision that sided with pro-gun plaintiffs. We briefly touch on some recent ad spending blitzes from gun groups on both sides of the issue before wrapping up with a discussion of what either a Trump or Harris presidency might mean in practice for gun policy.
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This week, we're taking a closer look at Kamala Harris's recent gun messaging.That's why we have Tim Miller of The Bulwark on the show. He's a Republican strategist turned Never Trumper who wants Harris to win but isn't afraid to be honest about whether her campaign is going in a direction that makes sense. On her recent turn to talking about owning a handgun, he argued it's a "CYA" move designed to reassure moderate swing voters she won't take their guns.He argued Democrats are being too defensive on gun policy. Miller said he thinks Harris could benefit from pushing other gun restrictions that poll well, like those targeting adults under 21. But he said the campaign's priority now seems to be not pushing away moderate or center-right voters more than pursuing left-leaning ones.Miller said the Trump Campaign is making a similar calculation. Beyond saying Harris wants to take everyone's guns, Trump has been mostly quiet on guns. Miller said he's made the reasonable calculation that most gun voters are probably already backing him, and he's trying not to alienate voters who are less enthusiastic about guns.Ultimately, he said Harris isn't really trying to persuade committed gun voters with talk of her Glock; otherwise, she'd probably move more to the center on gun policy. Instead, she's just hoping to convince those on the fence that she's not as radical as Trump or her own policy record might suggest.Free Dispatch trial here: https://thedispatch.com/join-offer-reload/?utmsource=thereload&utmmedium=partnerships-podcast&utm_campaign=0924 Special Guest: Tim Miller.
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Contributing writer Jake Fogleman and I recap how oral arguments over the ATF’s reclassification of unfinished firearms parts kits went this week before the Supreme Court. We also discuss the justices’ decision to take up the case over Mexico’s lawsuit against the American gun industry later this term. Then, we turn to the politics behind Kamala Harris’ decision to reveal that she owns a Glock handgun. Finally, we wrap up with a brief update on the grassroots movement to repeal Massachusetts’ new omnibus gun control law via the ballot and a discussion of The Reload’s reporting being cited in other national outlets.
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This week, we're looking at crime data and the unprecedented drop in the murder rate.
That's why we have Jeff Asher from AH Datalytics back on the show. He has been following and reporting crime data for decades, and he explains how dramatic the downturn in murder is compared to the incredible spike we saw just a few years ago. He said 2023 saw a record drop in murder, and 2024 is on pace to see the same.
Asher discussed how crime stats are calculated, addressed some of the critiques of them, and explained why he believes murder data is especially trustworthy this year. He also noted violent crime and property crime haven't followed murder. While they, too, have fallen in recent years, they also never saw the same kind of horrendous spike that murder did in 2020 and 2021.
Special Guest: Jeff Asher. -
Contributing writer Jake Fogleman and I recap the Vice Presidential debate, where the candidates at the top of the ticket were asked substantive gun policy questions for the first time all season. We also unpack the latest monthly gun sale data showing a trend of rising sales heading into the election. We wrap up with a discussion on the Massachusetts Governor's executive action to undermine a grassroots gun-rights campaign as well as a new ACLU brief the group filed in support of a Second Amendment challenge.
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This week, we broke a major story about Kamala Harris's record backing a total handgun ban in San Francisco.
As District Attorney in 2005, Harris supported Proposition H. It banned the sale, purchase, and even possession of pistols by nearly every city resident. The measure never went into effect, but only because gun-rights activists won the court fight over it before that could happen.
Chuck Michel, President of the California Rifle and Pistol Association, was the lawyer who won that case. He joined the podcast to discuss both the fight over Proposition H and the numerous other fights over gun restrictions he had with Harris during her time in California. He argued her support for several strictest-in-the-nation gun measures is more reflective of how she would govern as president than her recent remarks on owning a handgun herself.
Free Dispatch trial here: https://thedispatch.com/join-offer-reload/?utmsource=thereload&utmmedium=partnerships-podcast&utm_campaign=0924 Special Guest: Chuck Michel. -
Contributing writer Jake Fogleman and I talk about Kamala Harris' past support for a San Francisco ballot measure that banned the sale and possession of handguns during her time as the city's District Attorney and what bearing that might have in the current election. We also talk about new FEC records showing the NRA trailing the national gun rights groups in political fundraising by millions of dollars in August. Finally, we wrap up by talking about the record drop in murder in 2023 and the rise of gun ownership among self-identified liberals.
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This week, we're turning our attention to the presidential race.
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris seem to have found their message on guns and are sticking to it. Assassination attempts, a major school shooting, and the race tightening haven't moved voters. Neither has any of that moved the candidates themselves.
So, we've got Bearing Arms editor Cam Edwards back on the show to look at where everything has landed. He agreed there's little reason to think the campaigns are going to change course on message or intensity at this point. But he argued both sides are taking a flawed approach.
Cam said Trump ought to do more to try and entice gun owners to turn out for him rather than just talking about how he doesn't think they will show up. On the other hand, he argued Harris trying to parry claims she'll take Americans' guns by emphasizing her own gun ownership felt inauthentic and didn't do enough to counteract some of the farther left positions she's staked out on guns in the past.
Special Guest: Cam Edwards. -
Contributing writer Jake Fogleman and I talk about new polling data showing voters trust Kamala Harris more on the issue of "gun violence" despite ranking the issue low on their list of priorities this election. We also talk about the political implications of young women moving way to the left on the issue of guns. Finally, we wrap up with a discussion of a new federal bill to force the US Military to initiate state red flag orders, the lack of gun policy ballot measures this November, and a new state-level legislative coalition launched by the national gun control groups.
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