Episoder
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o3 isn’t one of the biggest developments in AI for 2+ years because it beats a particular benchmark. It is so because it demonstrates a reusable technique through which almost any benchmark could fall, and at short notice. I’ll cover all the highlights, benchmarks broken, and what comes next. Plus, the costs OpenAI didn’t want us to know, Genesis, ARC-AGI 2, Gemini-Thinking, and much more.
FrontierMath: https://epoch.ai/frontiermath
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2411.04872
Chollet Statement:https://arcprize.org/blog/oai-o3-pub-breakthrough
MLC Paper:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-training-method-helps-ai-generalize-like-people-do/?utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social
AlphaCode 2: https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/AlphaCode2/AlphaCode2_Tech_Report.pdf
Human Performance on ARC-AGI: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2409.01374v1
Wei Tweet ‘3 months’:https://x.com/_jasonwei/status/1870184982007644614
Deliberative Alignment Paper: https://openai.com/index/deliberative-alignment/
Brown Safety Tweet: https://x.com/polynoamial/status/1870196476908834893
Swe-Bench Verified: https://openai.com/index/introducing-swe-bench-verified/
Amodei Prediction: https://x.com/OfirPress/status/1858567863788769518
David Dohan: 16 hours https://x.com/dmdohan/status/1870171404093796638
OpenAI Personal Writing: https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/
https://simple-bench.com/
John Hallman Tweet: https://x.com/johnohallman/status/1870233375681945725
00:00 - Introduction
01:19 - What is o3?
03:18 - FrontierMath
05:15 - o4, o5
06:03 - GPQA
06:24 - Coding, Codeforces + SWE-verified, AlphaCode 2
08:13 - 1st Caveat
09:03 - Compositionality?
10:16 - SimpleBench?
13:11 - ARC-AGI, Chollet
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The ‘Gemini 2 Era’ begins … with screen-sharing? But really, it’s a great free tool, for curiosity satisfying rather than bleeding-edge intelligence. I give you the benchmarks, the highlights and of course, the latest from OpenAI Advanced Voice Mode with Vision.
Plus Deep Research in Gemini Advanced, Simple Bench updates, Santa and what might be for some of you Google’s deflating admission.
00:00 - Introduction
00:38 - Live Interaction
03:43 - Gemini 2.0 Flash Benchmarks
05:10 - Audio and Image Output
06:38 - Project Mariner (+ WebVoyager Bench)
08:49 - But Progress Slowing Down?
10:43 - OpenAI Announcements + Games
https://aistudio.google.com/live
Gemini 2.0 Flash Benchmarks: https://deepmind.google/technologies/gemini/
Project mariner: https://deepmind.google/technologies/project-mariner/
WebVoyager: https://x.com/laurentsifre/status/1858918588683296875/photo/1
Gemini Game play: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKuGNHJBGsc
Advanced Voice Mode OpenAI: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIQDnWlwYyQ
https://simple-bench.com/
Claude Computer Use: https://docs.anthropic.com/en/docs/build-with-claude/computer-use
Oriol Vinyals Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=78mEYaztGaw&t=687s
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Mangler du episoder?
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After a 10 month wait, OpenAI have released Sora to paying users. With just a prompt it can generate videos of up to 20 seconds in lower resolutions, and 10 seconds at 1080p if you can fork out $200/month. I’ve tested it and read the system card. The user interface is quite beautiful, even if the videos themselves operate until entirely new rules of physics. But I can’t help wondering if OpenAI want up to focus on releases like this, rather than some quietly broken promises.
80,000 hours Website, Podcast + Channel:
https://80000hours.org/
https://open.spotify.com/show/2WzJwXWBDnn4iZ7odKwDib https://www.youtube.com/@eightythousandhours/videos
https://openai.com/sora/
Sora Countries: https://help.openai.com/en/articles/10250692-sora-supported-countries
Sora Credits: https://help.openai.com/en/articles/10245774-sora-billing-credits-faq
https://runwayml.com/ and https://pika.art/home
DeepMind Veo: https://deepmind.google/technologies/veo/
Sam Altman Ads as Last Resort: https://www.windowscentral.com/software-apps/openai-could-chase-intrusive-ads-as-last-resort
But OpenAI Considering Ads: https://www.inc.com/ben-sherry/is-openai-getting-into-the-advertising-business-the-company-is-sending-mixed-messages/91033533
OpenAI Backtracks on Microsoft AGI Clause: https://www.ft.com/content/2c14b89c-f363-4c2a-9dfc-13023b6bce65
As Microsoft Boast of Labor Savings: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/microsofts-new-sales-pitch-for-ai-spend-less-money-on-humans?rc=sy0ihq
OpenAI Military Pivot: https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/12/04/1107897/openais-new-defense-contract-completes-its-military-pivot/
Employees Have Doubts: https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/12/06/openai-anduril-employee-military-ai/?nid=top_pb_signin&arcId=KZIV7PLRHBCVNPAIAAAVUNRHIM&account_location=ONSITE_HEADER_ARTICLE
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Oh boy. o1 pro mode out on the same night as o1 full. I read the 49 page paper, ran my own tests, spent my fuel allowance on Pro Mode and will give you all the highlights. Suffice to say the story is not as simple as it first appears.
Weights and Biases’ Weave: wandb.me/ai_explained
Plus, GPT-4.5? MLE Bench, Simple Update, Image Analysis and much more
o1 System Card: https://cdn.openai.com/o1-system-card-20241205.pdf
Apollo Research: https://www.apolloresearch.ai/research/scheming-reasoning-evaluations
Altman Tweet: https://x.com/AnonCEOMakeItAi/status/1864763052622504344
ChatGPT Pro: https://openai.com/index/introducing-chatgpt-pro/
Tibor Blaho: https://x.com/btibor91/status/1864709670470066605
Simple-bench.com
00:00 - Introduction
00:27 - ChatGPT Pro is $200
01:25 - OpenAI Benchmarks
03:20 - o1 System Card, o1 and o1 Pro Mode vs o1-preview
06:18 - Simple Bench surprising results on sample
08:31 - Weight & Biases
09:05 - Image Analysis Compared
12:51 - More Benchmarks and Safety
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Calmest before the storm? Whatever analogy you want to use things had gotten quiet toward the end of 2024. But then tonight we got Genie 2, and a series of scheduled announcements from OpenAI. Sora is soon here, and o1, but I dive deeper into what it all means and whether reliability is on a path to being solved, ft: two recent papers.
Assembly AI Speech to Text: https://www.assemblyai.com/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=influencer&utm_campaign=ai_explained
Plus Kling Motion Brush, Simple Bench QwQ update and much more.
Genie 2: https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/genie-2-a-large-scale-foundation-world-model/Jim Cramer: https://x.com/jimcramer/status/1864068878692675625
Give Us Full o1: https://x.com/tszzl/status/1863882905422106851
Verge Scoop: https://x.com/tomwarren/status/1864326361415925861
O1 Learning to Reason Benchmarks: https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/
SIMA AI: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2404.10179
Genie Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2402.15391
My Video on Genie: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGKsfXkSXv8
Oasis Minecraft: https://x.com/risphereeditor/status/1852619965511204974
LLMs Procedural Knowledge Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2411.12580
Bag of Heuristics Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.21272
Jensen Huang Hallucinations: https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/jensen-says-we-are-several-years-away-from-solving-the-ai-hallucination-problem-in-the-meantime-we-have-to-keep-increasing-our-computation
DeepSeek Interview: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/deepseek-ceo-interview-with-chinas
Kling Motion Brush: https://klingai.com/image-to-video
Tim Rocktaschel Book: https://geni.us/ArtificialIntelligence
00:43 - OpenAI 12 Days, Sora Turbo, o1
03:06 - Genie 2
08:26 - Jensen Huang and Altman Hallucination Predictions
09:45 - Bag of Heuristics Paper
11:40 - Procedural Knowledge Paper
13:02 - AssemblyAI Universal 213:45 - SimpleBench QwQ and Chinese Models
14:42 - Kling Motion Brush
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A new and mysterious Gemini model appears at the top of the leaderboard, but is that the full story? I dig behind the headline to show you some anti-climactic results, give some context with leaks in the last 48 hours of diminishing returns to scaling, and add the response of Altman, OpenAI and co. The future is about to look a lot stranger...
80,000 hours Podcast and Channel: https://open.spotify.com/show/2WzJwXWBDnn4iZ7odKwDib
https://www.youtube.com/@eightythousandhours/videosYou can now gift memberships to AI Insiders (my Patreon w/ exclusive vids, network): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplained/gift
‘There is no wall’: https://x.com/sama/status/1856941766915641580https://x.com/vedantmisra/status/1857148554105544708
Gemini Ranking: https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard
API not yet up: https://x.com/OfficialLoganK/status/1857106844805681153
‘Just Die Chat’: https://x.com/koltregaskes/status/1856754648146653428
Google CEO tweet: https://x.com/sundarpichai/status/1857114106928718329
Sutskever Quote: https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-rivals-seek-new-path-smarter-ai-current-methods-hit-limitations-2024-11-11/
Another OpenAI Staffer Leaves: https://x.com/RichardMCNgo/status/1856843040427839804
Bloomberg Report: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/openai-google-and-anthropic-are-struggling-to-build-more-advanced-ai?s=09
Noam Brown on what OpenAI Researchers Believe: https://x.com/polynoamial/status/1855037689533178289
Clive Chan: https://x.com/itsclivetime/status/1855704120495329667
Chollet Responds to Altman: https://x.com/fchollet/status/1857060079586975852
https://x.com/sama/status/1856940152460869718
Altman Emails: https://x.com/TechEmails/status/1857285960997712356
Change of Heart: https://sd11.senate.ca.gov/news/senator-wiener-responds-openai-opposition-sb-1047
Amodei on ‘Empirical Regularities’: https://lexfridman.com/dario-amodei-transcript/
Verge Report: https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/25/24279600/google-next-gemini-ai-model-openai-december
OpenAI Agents in January: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/openai-nears-launch-of-ai-agents-to-automate-tasks-for-users?srnd=phx-ai
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The last few days have seen two narratives emerge. One, derived from yesterday’s OpenAI leak in TheInformation, that GPT-5/Orion is a disappointment, and less of a leap than GPT-3 to GPT-4. The second comes from a series of 4 clips (shown in this video) from Sam Altman, regarding the ‘clear path’ to AGI. Let’s go beyond the headlines (and through papers like Frontier Math) to get closer to the ground truth…
Plus Universal-2, Sora comments, Claude 3.5 Haiku SimpleBench update, and a great new AI video.
Assembly AI Speech to Text: https://www.assemblyai.com/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=influencer&utm_campaign=ai_explained00:39 – Bear Case, TheInformation Leak
04:01 – Bull Case, Sam Altman
06:20 – FrontierMath
11:29 – o1 Paradigm
13:11 – Text to Video Greatness and Universal-2
TheInformation Leak: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-shifts-strategy-as-rate-of-gpt-ai-improvements-slows?rc=sy0ihq
Noam Brown Replies: https://x.com/polynoamial/status/1855453104394637444
Sam Altman Y-Combinator Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXCBz_8hM9w&t=1556s
Altman Reply: https://x.com/sama/status/1855100359511097828
https://simple-bench.com/
FrontierMath Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2411.04872
Frontier Math Blog Post: https://epochai.org/frontiermath
Tao: https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1854996368814936250
MMLU Are We Done (cites me!): https://arxiv.org/pdf/2406.04127
Universal-2 https://www.assemblyai.com/research/universal-2
Noam Brown ‘We don’t know’: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gr_eYXdHFis
Anthropic Founder Response: https://x.com/jackclarkSF/status/1855485569998217231
Sora (Runway Comment): https://x.com/c_valenzuelab/status/1855026417354129455
Sora New Vid: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iETa2KDRuw
Darri3D Video: https://www.reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/comments/1gn0n3z/can_you/
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The Google destroyer, the Perplexity crusher? Or just hype? ChatGPT with Search is here, and simultaneously Altman and co did an AMA on Reddit, covering GPT-5, Sora, SearchGPT and a lot more. Plus, the biggest news of them all: Simple Bench is out.
ChatGPT with Search: https://openai.com/index/introducing-chatgpt-search/Altman AMA (ask me anything): https://www.reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/comments/1ggixzy/ama_with_openais_sam_altman_kevin_weil_srinivas/
https://x.com/sama/status/1852041075793522911
Perplexity Ads: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/22/perplexity-ai-plans-to-start-running-search-ads-in-fourth-quarter.html
Perplexity: https://www.perplexity.ai/
https://simple-bench.com/
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A new state of the art LLM (at least for creative writing and basic reasoning) but what lies behind the numbers that were put out? Is it for real, and are AI agents about to grab your mouse and shake your cursor?
Plus, results on my own Simple Bench, and new tools from Runway (Act-One), HeyGen (Zoom Calls) and an updated NotebookLM. AI, without the hype.
Weights and Biases' Weave: https://wandb.me/ai_explained
