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Israel’s military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon has broken a status quo that could carry potentially momentous consequences for a country and a region already marked by a year of conflict. Critical questions loom. What are Israel’s military objectives in the south and can they be achieved? Has the weakening of Hezbollah shifted Lebanon’s internal power balance and created opportunities for strengthening state sovereignty? How will Iran respond to the weakening of its billion-dollar proxy? And are there realistic opportunities for the international community, especially the United States, to pursue diplomatic options that could produce greater stability in Lebanon and along the Israel-Lebanon border?
Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Kim Ghattas and Ambassador David Satterfield to address these and other questions on Carnegie Connects.
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During the past two weeks, the possibility of a major Middle East multi-front war has increased significantly. Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah and Iran’s launching of ballistic missiles against Israel has created the potential of an escalatory ladder that both Iran and Israel might climb with dangerous consequences. Iran’s role and what they do next will be decisive.
Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Karim Sadjadpour, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Middle East Program, and Suzanne Maloney, vice president and director of the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, to discuss how Iran perceives the current landscape and may act as the crisis unfolds.
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Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has added a new dynamic to an otherwise predictable grinding war of attrition between Russia and Ukraine. The war has now dragged on for the better part of three years, with neither Moscow nor Kyiv able to achieve their territorial objectives. Nor are there any prospects for serious negotiations that might pause or end the war.
Are there any developments on the battlefield that suggest changes in either side’s tactics and strategies in the months ahead? Have Europe and the United States developed funding and political strategies to prepare for the long war? What are the right mix of policy tools and overall strategy to help prosecute a long war in Ukraine and an open-ended confrontation with Moscow?
Join Aaron David Miller as he engages in conversation with Carnegie’s own Dara Massicot and Eric Ciaramella to discuss these and other issues.
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As Lebanon was rocked by two days of exploding pagers and walkie-talkies directed at Hezbollah’s communications network, killing dozens and injuring thousands, tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have risen to new heights. In a fiery speech, Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed revenge.
How has this latest escalation impacted Lebanon’s internal politics? What are Hezbollah’s options in responding? What are the prospects for defusing not only the current crisis but the complex of issues that have shaped the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah? And what role can the U.S. and other international actors and regional parties play in avoiding an all-out war?
Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with His Excellency Abdallah BouHabib, the foreign minister of Lebanon, to discuss these and other issues.
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In a recent poll, two-thirds of American adults said they were concerned that “extremists” will commit acts of violence following the 2024 election if they are unhappy with the results. This should come as no surprise. Earlier this year the U.S. Department of Homeland Security warned that among other threats the 2024 election cycle will be a “key event for possible violence.” How real is that threat and how would it likely manifest itself? What are the factors driving political violence in America today? And what can be done to mitigate the threat?
Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with down with former acting assistant attorney general for national security Mary B. McCord and Eric K. Ward, senior fellow at the Southern Poverty Law Center, to unpack these and other issues.
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The Middle East continues to boil. Following the Hezbollah rocket strike on a Druze town in the Golan Heights killing a dozen children, Israel targeted a top Hezbollah commander in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Two days later, the head of the Hamas Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed presumably by Israel in a missile strike in Tehran while attending the inauguration of the Iranian President. Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis have all threatened retaliation.
What is the likely impact of recent events on the Gaza ceasefire talks? Is the region heading toward a major war? And is there chance for de-escalation diplomacy?
Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Amos Harel, Haaretz’s military correspondent and one of Israel’s leading defense analysts, to discuss these and other issues on Carnegie Connects.
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This past spring many college and university campuses were roiled by unprecedented protests sparked by the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. Not since Vietnam has any foreign policy issue resulted in such widespread demonstrations on campuses.
What explains the intensity of the reaction? Has the Israeli-Palestinian conflict become a permanent fixture of hot debate? What lessons have been learned should demonstrations reoccur this fall? And is it possible to have productive conversations about the conflict without succumbing to nationalized, polarized narratives in a toxic media environment?
Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Princeton University Dean Amaney Jamal and Columbia University Dean Keren Yarhi-Milo for a wide-ranging discussion of these and other issues. -
The Israel-Hamas war drags on seemingly with no end in sight. President Biden has announced a phased plan to end the conflict, but Hamas has yet to respond and Benny Gantz, a supporter of the plan, has left the Israeli government. Meanwhile, there’s serious concern about the prospects of a major escalation between Israel and Hezbollah along the Israel-Lebanon border.
What is the humanitarian situation for Gaza’s 2.3 million people? Is there any realistic planning for the proverbial day after? And what are the prospects for any regional peace initiative? In this episode, Aaron David Miller welcomes back to the program Ambassador David Satterfield, formerly the White House Special Envoy for Middle East Humanitarian Issues, to discuss these and other issues.
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As the Israel-Hamas war drags on, the potential for spillover effects increase. Three conflict areas have emerged that carry serious risk of escalation: first, growing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah along the Israeli-Lebanese border, attacks by Iranian-backed Houthis against international shipping in the Red Sea, threatening global supply chains and freedom of navigation, and the danger of another direct clash between Israel and Iran.
What are the prospects for regional escalation? Is there a diplomatic pathway in Lebanon? And how have these conflicts affected the international economy, supply chains, and the global trade of hydrocarbons? Aaron David Miller will discuss these and other issues with Amos Hochstein, deputy assistant to the president and senior advisor for energy and investment at the White House. Prior to serving at the White House, Hochstein served as the U.S.-appointed mediator of the Lebanese-Israeli negotiations that resulted in a maritime border agreement between the two nations. -
Seven months on, the Israel-Hamas war continues with seemingly no end in sight, against a backdrop of escalating regional tensions. While Israel remains determined to pursue a major military operation in Rafah, indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas over the release of hostages and a ceasefire drag on. Following unprecedented strikes by Iran and Israel on one another’s territory, there is growing concern that Israel and Hezbollah, Iran’s Lebanese proxy, might find themselves engaged in a major war. Despite these compounding challenges, the Biden Administration holds out hope for a regional peace initiative, including Israeli-Saudi normalization, should the situation in Gaza stabilize.
What are the prospects for ending the Israel-Hamas war? Will the current status quo hold, or might we see another escalation between Israel and Iran? And what is the status of the US-Israeli relationship? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Israeli Ambassador to the US Michael Herzog to discuss these and other issues, in the next episode of Carnegie Connects.
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The recent attacks by Iran and Israel on one another’s territory have taken the strategic rivalry between these two adversaries into uncharted and dangerous territory. The unprecedented strikes seem to have been contained for now, but it’s by no means certain that this state will hold. The underlying issues that have fueled tensions — from conflict with regional proxies to Iran’s nuclear program — remain unresolved.
Will the recent escalation between Iran and Israel lead the parties to greater risk-readiness or risk aversion? What role can outside parties, especially the United States, play in reducing tensions? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with the Institute for National Security Studies’ Sima Shine and the Carnegie Endowment’s Karim Sadjadpour to discuss these and other issues, in the next episode of Carnegie Connects.
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Congress is more involved in foreign policy — both formally and informally — than most Americans realize. With the war in Ukraine entering its third year, the Israeli-Hamas war continuing with no end in sight, and economic competition with China rising, Congress is likely to take a greater interest and have more influence on foreign policy in the coming year.
How divided is Congress on the key foreign policy issues of the day? Will party lines determine the passage of a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine or a possible ban of TikTok? And what issues offer the best prospects for bipartisan cooperation? Join Aaron David Miller, host of Carnegie Connects, as he sits down with Representative Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) to discuss these and other issues. -
As the Israeli-Hamas war enters its sixth month, the conflict shows no signs of abating. The humanitarian plight of Gazans continues to deteriorate while the prospects of a major Israeli ground campaign in Rafah looms. At the same time, the negotiations surrounding a potential hostage deal appear stalled.
What are Israel's current objectives in the conflict? How do tensions along the Israeli-Lebanon border factor in, and what of rising tensions with Washington? Aaron David Miller welcomes former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak back to the program to discuss the latest developments in the Israel-Hamas war.
Register for future Carnegie Connects: https://carnegieendowment.org/events/
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Late last year, the Economist asked an intriguing question: How scary is China? President Joe Biden’s administration clearly considers China a peer competitor to the United States and many in Congress view Beijing as a mortal threat. There’s no doubt that China poses serious challenges, even dangers in some areas, for America. But is Washington overlooking China’s weaknesses and vulnerabilities, and misunderstanding what China wants from America and the world? Are we getting China right?
Aaron David Miller sits down with David Rennie, the Economist’s bureau chief in Beijing, to discuss these and other issues.
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As the Israel-Gaza war enters its fifth month, the humanitarian situation for 2.3 million Gazans is increasingly dire. A grinding process of inspections of trucks has slowed delivery of aid, while Israel's ground campaign in southern Gaza—where an estimated 1.9 million displaced Palestinians now reside—makes using predictable and reliable corridors for transport extremely difficult.
What is the future for Palestinians in Gaza? How does the Biden administration envision the proverbial day after? And what are the prospects for converting this crisis into a better pathway to a two-state solution and closer ties between Israel and the Arab world?
Aaron David Miller sits down with Ambassador David Satterfield, the State Department special envoy for Middle East humanitarian issues, to discuss these and other issues.
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In its threat assessment for 2024, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security forecast that, among other threats, the 2024 election cycle will be a “key event for possible violence and foreign influence targeting our election infrastructure, processes and personnel.” Indeed, Attorney General Merrick Garland noted that in recent months there had been a “deeply disturbing spike” in threats against government workers and public servants.
What is the nature of these threats? What is driving and enabling political violence in America today? Can law enforcement cope with these threats, and are the nation’s institutions strong and resilient enough to deal with these challenges in the years ahead?
Aaron David Miller sits down in conversation with former U.S. acting assistant attorney general for national security Mary B. McCord to unpack these and other issues.
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The Israel-Hamas war may have pushed Ukraine off the front pages, but Russia's war against Kyiv is almost certain to remain a key focus of U.S. foreign policy throughout 2024. Tough choices await. Hopes that the combination of a successful Ukrainian counter-offensive, tough sanctions, and diplomatic pressure might force Putin to alter his strategic calculus have given way to a more realistic assessment that this conflict might last for many years.
What should we expect on the battlefield in 2024? Are there any realistic prospects for negotiations and should President Joe Biden’s administration be pushing for them? What are the impacts of delays in aid to Ukraine now and in the months ahead? Over the longer term, is containment the right strategy for dealing with a belligerent Russia?
Aaron David Miller sits down in conversation with Carnegie’s own Dara Massicot and Eric Ciaramella to discuss these and other issues.
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As the Israel-Hamas war enters its second month, the role of intelligence has figured prominently. How did Israel fail to grasp Hamas’s intentions and capabilities and to anticipate the October 7 attack? Was this a failure of imagination or were there structural and bureaucratic impediments that prevented Israel’s intelligence community from identifying the dots and connecting them? Are domestic politics overriding sound intelligence analysis to shape the Israeli government’s campaign against Hamas, its approach toward Gazan civilians, its efforts to free hostages, and its thinking on post-conflict Gaza and the West Bank?
Efraim Halevy, former director of the Mossad, and Ami Ayalon, former director of Shin Bet, engage in conversation with Aaron David Miller on these and other subjects.
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With the ever-present possibility of tensions between the United States and China in the Indo-Pacific, the war between Russia and Ukraine with no end in sight, and a new crisis between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East that could easily escalate, the United States seems to be stretched along several political and military fronts. How should President Joe Biden’s administration think strategically and tactically about this new arc of crisis in Europe, the Indo-Pacific, and the Middle East? Can it successfully resource America’s role in these conflicts? What are the key challenges it faces, and how much political bandwidth does it have at home to fashion policies that are both sustainable and effective?
Aaron David Miller sits down with General David Petraeus to discuss these and other issues, as well as his new book "Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare From 1945 to Ukraine."
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The Israel-Hamas war has pushed the Palestinian issue to center stage both in the region and internationally. Have Hamas’s October 7 attack, Israel’s blockade and airstrikes, and the ensuing humanitarian catastrophe altered Gazans’ views on Hamas? What did Hamas hope to gain from the attack? Has the Palestinian Authority been weakened further by the escalating violence in the areas under its control, and would its influence be strengthened or weakened if Israel were to succeed in destroying Hamas’s military capabilities? Are there any circumstances in which the Palestinian Authority might return to Gaza?
Aaron David Miller sits down with pollster and analyst Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, in conversation on these and other issues.
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